Archive for January 19th, 2009

A Boat I Can’t Bet

This is a pretty specific situation nearly 400 BB’s deep against a phenomenal player (CardRunner’s instructor/FTP red pro Eric “P3achy_Keen” Liu

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($1945)
UTG ($1015)
UTG+1 ($4483)
MP1 ($991.45)
MP2 ($3100)
MP3 ($1609.25)
Hero (CO) ($3782.50)
Button ($1000)
SB ($2473)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3, 3
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $35, 1 fold, MP2 calls $35, 1 fold, Hero calls $35, 3 folds

Flop: ($120) 3, 10, 10 (3 players)
UTG+1 bets $90, 1 fold, Hero raises to $277, UTG+1 calls $187

Turn: ($674) Q (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $470, UTG+1 calls $470

River: ($1614) A (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1111, UTG+1 raises to $3701 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $3836 | Rake: $3

Results:
UTG+1 didn’t show
Outcome: UTG+1 won $3833

By the river, I’ve simply shown too much strength, on a scary board, to think that Eric is going to pay me off with a worse hand. Not to mention the fact that TT/QQ/AA are all very possible for him. Checking the turn and either calling or value betting the river might be a better line than this, given that the flush came in. On a non-club turn, I think betting is best, along with maybe bet-folding a non-club river. But with the flush getting there, it’s hard to put me on anything worse than what I have by the river.