Archive for June, 2009

I Hate Good Players

Full Tilt Poker, $40/$80 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.comHand History Converter

SB: $34,593
Hero (BB): $22,437
UTG: $19,010
CO: $22,366
BTN: $8,180

Pre-Flop: 8 6 dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, SB raises to $320, Hero calls $240

Flop: ($640) 5 4 5 (2 Players)
SB bets $420, Hero calls $420

Turn: ($1,480) A (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $666, SB calls $666

River: ($2,812) K (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Results: $2,812 Pot ($3 Rake)
SB showed 9 Q (a pair of Fives) and WON $2,809 (+$1,403 NET)
Hero showed 8 6 (a pair of Fives) and LOST (-$1,406 NET)

This isn’t really all that fancy or anything, and obviously my range on the turn is quite wide, but a lot of people just aren’t capable of check-calling down with Q-high. I’m glad I didn’t bluff the river, because I’m pretty sure he would have called.

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WSOP Plans

Sorry for the recent lack of updates, but I haven’t been playing all that much. Since I’ll be in Vegas soon and devoting myself to poker nearly 24/7, I’m trying to get some other stuff done right now.

Speaking of Vegas, thanks to everyone who’s asked what my plans are. I’m heading out there on the 27th and plan to play the $1500 Stud/8 tournament on the 28th. Should I somehow manage not to final table that, I’ll play the $5000 6-max NLHE event on the 30th, then Day of the Main Event on July 3. That’s likely to be it for major tournaments, as I do want to play some cash games and maybe a few of those juicy juicy satellites. I also want to meet/hang out with some people, so if you’re going to be in Vegas during that time, by all means let me know (foucault82 (at) yahoo (dot) com) so we can grab a drink or something.

Also, while I’ll continue to post daily updates here, I’m also going to try Tweating my chip counts and such during the tournaments. I know, I know, Twitter is largely a toolish thing to do, but it seems pretty ideal for poker tournament updates. You can follow me on @thinkingpoker.

Wish me luck!

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I Am Adorable

I didn’t have any kind of read that dude was gonna spaz out like this, but it’s the kind of thing that happens when you make strange bets:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($885)
SB ($2165)
Hero (BB) ($2458)
UTG ($2519)
MP ($835)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, K
2 folds, Button bets $30, 1 fold, Hero raises to $111, Button calls $81

Flop: ($227) 5, 5, K (2 players)
Hero bets $166, Button calls $166

Turn: ($559) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $111, Button raises to $608 (All-In), Hero calls $497

River: ($1775) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $1775 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 9, J (two pair, nines and fives).
Hero had A, K (two pair, Kings and fives).
Outcome: Hero won $1772

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Quantifying the Value of Position

Even though I’m too sloppy/lazy/uneducated to work out the details of complicated problems, I’m quite interested in the mathematics of poker. I feel like I do have a broad grasp of the game theory that underlies many situations and can use that to aid in my decision-making. Recently, I’ve been curious about how to quantify exactly the value of seemingly abstract concepts like position and implied odds. I think I may have come upon a sketch of how to work some of it out, though I doubt I’ll ever follow up on it.

We start with the “exploitability”, the idea that there is something about how you play that an opponent could potentially take advantage of. Conversely, “unexploitable” means that there is nothing an opponent could do to take advantage of how you play. Importantly, unexploitably is not always the most profitable way to play. Often, you will do something exploitable in order to exploit something exploitable an opponent is doing.

Suppose that you hold AQ in the big blind in a $1/$2 NLHE game. The action folds to the SB, who open shoves for $20. If you know that this opponent will only shove JJ+ and AK, you can fold your AQ. Though itself exploitable, this fold exploits your opponent’s excessively tight shoving range.

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A Critical Bet Sizing Tell

Let me say up front that I do this whole “check and figure it out” thing entirely too often against good players, and I have to stop. That said, in this case something about his turn bet led me to conclude that I ought to call the river.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($2000.30)
Hero (UTG) ($2000)
MP ($1543.50)
CO ($1734.80)
Button ($2358.50)
SB ($2077.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5, A
Hero bets $33, 2 folds, Button raises to $106, 2 folds, Hero raises to $266, Button calls $160

Flop: ($556) 6, A, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($556) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $290, Hero calls $290

River: ($1136) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1801 (All-In), Hero calls $1442.50 (All-In)

Total pot: $4021 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 8, 9 (high card, Ace).
Hero had 5, A (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $4018

Let me kick this one to you, dear readers. Can you figure out what it is about the sizing of his turn bet that led me to call his overbet shove on the river?

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Nice River

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($9000.50)
UTG ($16025)
MP ($5309)
Hero (CO) ($10269)
Button ($10000)
SB ($10391)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, J
2 folds, Hero bets $175, 1 fold, SB calls $150, 1 fold

Flop: ($400) J, 8, 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($400) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $269, SB raises to $1025, Hero calls $756

River: ($2450) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1669, 1 fold

Total pot: $2450 | Rake: $3

A big part of my reason for checking the flop is that I so rarely check back a flush draw, and this is one of the best flush draws to check (ie also having top pair to go along with it, so that the fold equity of a semi-bluff isn’t worth much to you). This means that when the flush comes in on the turn, my opponent is going to think I can’t have it.

So, OK, I get the raise I wanted, which is probably a bluff but could be two pair or a set that’s comfortable bloating the pot since I’ll rarely have the flush. When I call, I don’t know how often he’ll continue bluffing. Rivers that pair the board are definitely going to be scary for him, though, as are diamonds, since my likely holding for calling is either set/two pair or a pair with a diamond.

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Change is Coming

As a first step towards a larger blog/website revamping, I’m finally moving away from the awful Ipower company that’s been hosting the blog. This should be a smooth transition that doesn’t result in any downtime, but nothing with them has ever gone smoothly, so we’ll see. If for some reason you do have trouble accessing the blog at some point this week, no worries- it should be back up shortly.

Thanks!

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Final Tabled the Stars $300

Maybe I haven’t forgotten how to play tournaments altogether? I went into yesterdays’ session resolved not to LAG off too many stacks in my tournaments, and while I didn’t entirely keep that pledge, I did play a pretty disciplined game in the Stars $300. To wit:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $300+$20 Tournament, 1250/2500 Blinds 250 Ante (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP (t127213)
Hero (CO) (t79552)
Button (t84040)
SB (t67653)
BB (t142860)
UTG (t76565)

Hero’s M: 15.15

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q
UTG bets t5575, 1 fold, Hero raises to t12222, 2 folds, BB raises to t32500, 2 folds

Total pot: t32769

UTG was by far the most active player at the table, and I’d been 3-betting him quite a bit on the final table bubble. Here I was going to fist-pump-snap-call if he shoved, but the cold 4-bet from the much tighter BB sent me packing without much thought.

Immediately after that hand, I was moved to the other table, where I made this slightly more questionable fold:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $300+$20 Tournament, 1250/2500 Blinds 250 Ante (5 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t226479)
MP (t160520)
Button (t42353)
SB (t213820)
Hero (BB) (t61025)

Hero’s M: 12.21

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, A
1 fold, MP calls t2500, 1 fold, SB calls t1250, Hero checks

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