Archive for July, 2009

One of my students asked me about this hand today, and I thought it was pretty interesting. My first instinct was that the check-raise was thin but good. Q8 is pretty much the top of Hero’s range here, and this looks like such a weird line that I doubt Villain folds anything he was betting for value.

The question, then, is how many worse hands Villain plays like this for value. After discussing the hand for a while, we decided there actually weren’t many. AT+ mostly 3-bets pre-flop, 98 and 68 probably aren’t betting the turn, 96 needs to be discounted for lack of a flop raise, and does A7 go for two streets of value? I think it ought to, but most players probably chicken out and check the river or bet smaller.

So I think this is a shove against really good value betters but a call against pretty much any 2/4 player.

No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (4 handed) – Hold’em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($620.90)
Hero (SB) ($458.70)
BB ($440)
UTG ($359)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, 8
2 folds, Hero bets $10, BB calls $8

Flop: ($24) 9, A, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $16, BB calls $16

Turn: ($56) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $40, Hero calls $40  Read the complete post...

Wicked Chops Poker is reporting that, with 2400 players left in the main event, Phil Ivey accepted a $20K wager from Andy Bloch at 99:1 that he would win the main event. Now that he’s made the final table, Bloch’s got to be sweating the $2 million loss.

My first reaction was that, this close call notwithstanding, this was a pretty good spot for Bloch. Granted everything I’ve heard about Ivey is that he’s both incredibly good at poker and insanely intimidating in person, but is he really 24 times more likely than the average player to take it down? The one thing I don’t know, which would make a big difference, is what his chip stack was like at the time. I guess if he was already at like three times the average when he took the bet, it might not be so unreasonable to think he’d close out eight times as often as anyone else sitting on a stack that big.

Even against bad players in a great structure, that’s an awfully huge edge. Then again, if Ivey does make it to the final four with a decent stack, I imagine he takes it down a large percentage of the time.

What do you think? Was Ivey getting the best of Bloch when he took 99:1?

Given the difficulty I’ve had recently getting heads up action, I’ve put some thought into how the risk of provoking a quit ought to factor into my decisions. It seems there are certain situations, usually winning or losing a big pot, that greatly increase the chances of an opponent quitting. If I have a solid edge on the guy and no immediate prospects for finding another opponent, this translates into a definite loss of equity. Thus, I’ll sometimes pass on a marginal shove or call if I think my opponent is the sort to quit after a big win or loss. Similarly, I think I ought to pass sometimes on a very thin call or value bet to avoid making clear to an opponent that he is getting outplayed. I’m not talking about passing on hundreds of dollars of equity, but rather spots that are probably slight +EV. For example, I can’t find the HH, but here’s a call that got me quit yesterday:

We were playing 5/10 NLHE. Villain min-raised the button to $20, and I called with K7o.

The flop came Js 9s 5h. I had no spade. I checked, he bet $20, I raised to $55, and he called. The turn was the Ks. I checked, and he checked behind. The river was the 3s. I checked, and he bet $90. After some thought, I called, and he showed 87 with no spade. Then he quit.  Read the complete post...

Thanks to everyone who commented on my recent post “You Tell Me: How’d We Do?“. I’ll address a couple of the great questions and comments here and share my own thoughts.

1. The pre-flop 3-bet. I’m certainly not doing this everytime I have J9s, but my 3-betting range is going to include a mix of hands that will shove to a 4-bet (which will itself be a mix of value and bluff hands) and hands that will fold to a 4-bet. When choosing hands for the latter category, I’m considering two factors: how will the hand play post-flop if called, and would it be more profitable just to call pre-flop rather than to 3-bet. In this case, I’m pretty sure folding is better than calling. And J9s is going to play a lot better post-flop than is a “better” hand like AJo. The point I want to emphasize is that his high 4-bet % is not a reason to never 3-bet him without a hand that can 5-bet. Certainly I should do it less than I would against someone who folds more often, but unless he 4-bets 100% of the time, my range should include some bluffs. And as long as he calls at least some of the time (and his Call 3-Bet stat is certainly relevant, as some of you pointed out, though I didn’t consult it at the time), then it matters how my hand will play post-flop when called.  Read the complete post...

By now, you’ve probably all heard about the arrest of prominent black academic Henry Louis Gates, Jr. in his home by a Cambridge police officer. If you haven’t, or even if you have, I suggest reading the police report. The short version is that a neighbor called the police after witnessing Gates and his driver attempting to force open the front door of Gates’ home, which was apparently jammed. A police officer responded to a possible break-in, and, seeing Gates, demanded that he step outside. Gates refused, saying something to the effect of, “This is what happens to black men in America.” Some more bluster followed from both sides, and eventually Gates explained the situation but was arrested anyway for disorderly conduct.

Naturally, Gates and the officer tell slightly different stories, but the general consensus seems to be that both overreacted. Gates, understandably upset by being accused of breaking into his own home, called the officer a racist and, to some extent, refused to cooperate. In all likelihood, simply stepping outside and explaining the situation would have prevented any escalation.

The officer could have ignored the comments and left after identifying Gates as the legitimate occupant of the home. Instead, he chose to escalate the situation by arresting him for “disorderly conduct”  Read the complete post...

Here’s a change of pace. Instead of telling you my reasoning and take on the hand (yet), I want to hear yours. What do you think of my play? What do you think of Villain’s? Obviously some streets will be more controversial than others, but I’m interested in anything and everything that you think either of us did particularly well or poorly.

One important dynamic I should add: I had been 3-betting Villain a lot this session, mostly but not always when I had position. He has a very high 4-bet% (18, to be precise).

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (4 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($2089.25)
Hero (SB) ($2403.35)
BB ($528.25)
UTG ($2733.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, 9
1 fold, Button bets $30, Hero raises to $111, 1 fold, Button calls $81

Flop: ($232) 4, 9, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $166, Button calls $166

Turn: ($564) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $315, Hero raises to $876, Button calls $561

River: ($2316) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Total pot: $2316 | Rake: $2

Results:
Button had 10, Q (one pair, Queens).
Hero had J, 9 (one pair, nines).
Outcome: Button won $2314

The tournament cold-deckings continue, with me busting the Sunday million set under set after accumulating an above average stack three hours in, losing a huge pot with set under set in the $500 WCOOP satellite (which had a remarkably small and tough field, hopefully that will change with time), and this little gem from the FTP $500:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 20/40 Blinds (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t6060)
Hero (UTG+1) (t4575)
MP1 (t180)
MP2 (t3260)
MP3 (t5050)
CO (t10060)
Button (t5535)
SB (t5795)
BB (t4485)

Hero’s M: 76.25

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, A
UTG bets t140, Hero raises to t480, 7 folds, UTG calls t340

Flop: (t1020) 10, 8, A (2 players)
UTG bets t40, Hero calls t40

Turn: (t1100) 9 (2 players)
UTG bets t1100, Hero calls t1100

River: (t3300) Q (2 players)
UTG bets t40, Hero raises to t1455, UTG calls t1415

Total pot: t6210

Results:
UTG had J, 7 (straight, Queen high).
Hero had A, A (three of a kind, Aces).

Outcome: UTG won t6210  Read the complete post...

Villain is Matt “Mattg1983″ Graham. He’s got a bracelet from the 2008 WSOP PLO $10K, but I don’t know how his PLO8 game is.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (8 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t5430)
BB (t4450)
UTG (t2960)
UTG+1 (t2520)
MP1 (t5635)
Hero (MP2) (t3005)
CO (t2945)
Button (t3055)

Hero’s M: 66.78

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 2, 4, K, 3
3 folds, Hero bets t90, 1 fold, Button calls t90, 2 folds

Flop: (t225) 3, K, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets t155, Button calls t155

Turn: (t535) K (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: (t535) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t295, Hero raises to t1060, Button calls t765

Total pot: t2655

Results:
Button mucked A, Q, 10, A (Hi: two pair, Aces and Kings).
Hero had 2, 4, K, 3 (Hi: full house, Kings over threes).
Outcome: Hero won t2655

Yes, I’m aware that this a pretty crappy hand and a questionable pre-flop raise. Let’s just focus on the river sexiness.  Read the complete post...