Playing in a pretty nitty 10/25 NL. UTG straddles for $50, gets two calls, I make it $275 to go with 7s 5s on my BB. Straddle folds, other two call. I’m playing about 7K, they both cover. Flop Qs 5d 5h. I bet $750, first player folds, the other one calls.
Turn is the 2s. With the deck crushed and my opponent’s stack in my sights, bet sizing is important here. I’m thinking he can have four types of hands:
a) Float/total air- Almost certainly folding to any bet, and not factoring into my decision.
b) Trips or better- Money’s probably going in no matter what, so doesn’t matter.
c) One pair Queens or better- Probably not folding but not raising either. I think he’ll pay off with these on the river for anything up to a pot-sized bet.
d) Bluff-catcher lower than Queens- This could be a pocket pair or Ace-high. These may call again if my bet is smallish.
So my goal here is to bet the smallest amount I can that will still allow me to make a roughly pot-sized shove on the river.
I chose 1400. He called.
River Ts, giving me a flush. I shove for a little over 4K, he calls and grimaces, flashing me a 5. He didn’t show his kicker, which I assume means we were chopping most non-spade rivers. I don’t think he could have resisted showing A5 for the bad beat if that’s what he had.