Archive for February 15th, 2010

Villain’s flop bet, representing 75% of the pot and about 15% of the effective stacks, puts me in an awkward spot with my whole range (and is therefore a good one). Actually, I can play good draws pretty easily by making a pot-committing raise, but with say one marginal pair it’s a scary board to flat call but raising requires committing a lot of stack relative to the pot against a non-favorable range. Bluff-raising is similarly awkward, but it’s a big bet to float, particularly in a spot where Villain could turn a lot of draws and fire a pot-committing semi-bluff. Even here, with a monster, I’d kind of like to raise but am afraid that shows too much strength, as I can’t really raise and leave Villain room to 3-bet with any perception of fold equity.

On the plus side, I don’t think he’d play a big draw like this, as his bet size enables me to put him in a tough spot with a raise. Thus, I’m more comfortable flatting with a set here than I otherwise would be. I’m actually kind of hoping a club does come on the turn so that Villain will semi-bluff shove. I definitely think flatting is best here, as Villain can’t very well check-fold his overpairs on most turns, plus there’s room for him to turn a second best hand if he has overcards or to turn a draw he can semi-bluff. It might seem like there are a lot of free cards that could kill my hand, such that slowplaying is bad, but based on Villain’s sizing I’m actually not too worried about the draws.  Read the complete post...