Archive for February 17th, 2010

Another Whiffed River Bluff


PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (9 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($1961)
Hero (UTG) ($2651.50)
UTG+1 ($2040)
MP1 ($2474)
MP2 ($3105)
MP3 ($1027.50)
CO ($2000)
Button ($1857)
SB ($2904)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, A
Hero bets $80, 3 folds, MP3 calls $80, 3 folds, BB calls $60

Flop: ($250) 6, 6, 6 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $166, MP3 calls $166, BB calls $166

Turn: ($748) 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $444, 1 fold, BB calls $444

River: ($1636) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $1636 | Rake: $3

Results:
BB had 10, 10 (full house, sixes over tens).
Hero mucked J, A (three of a kind, sixes).
Outcome: BB won $1633

I tend to assume that, particularly when out of position with a hand that isn’t likely to improve, people make their river decisions on the turn. That is, if they check-call the turn, they’re usually going to check-call the river as well. Thus, I bluff a lot more turns than I do rivers.

Still, without a far more specific read, I don’t think I should be giving up 100% of rivers unimproved. And if I’m ever going to bluff the river in a spot like this, K’s and Q’s are obviously the best cards for it, as I can represent not just a big pair but also AQ/AK that rivered top pair.