I thought about this hand a little, it can’t be a bad shove with 55 without a solid read on hero’s game and the fish’s calling range being significantly wide.

Even if hero isn’t ever calling with a worse hand, you only have 3 combos in your range villain plausibly loses to, whereas fish’s range is significantly wide and probably pays off enough to make a shove ok.

So yeah, like you said, even if he can’t shove for value vs you, there’s likely enough value vs the fish to make it ok.

If you ever peel flop with something like a gutty or pair + FD (67ss, 78ss, KQss) he can probably show a profit given your not calling this river bet 100%

Thanks for the comment, Kitty. It’s definitely close no matter what. It’s definitely easier for BB to call flop and turn with me calling rather than leading out. I don’t know about the river- IMO it looks stronger for me to bet than check, but God knows what or whether a fish would be thinking.

He can’t shove for value vs. me. The complication, and the reason I played this way, is that BB is a super-fish. I think that makes it a lot closer for Villain, since he doesn’t necessarily need to be ahead of my calling range to show a profit.

There’s no hand UTG is leading turn with that isn’t shoving this river for value when checked to.

I agree this isn’t a value-shove with 55. Every combo draw hero could have peeled given pre-flop has hit. QTss, 67ss are ahead, and KQss (discounted) is never calling river.

K9hh is the only hand hero villain beats that gets to this river given hero’s line.

But the fish is more likely to call with you leading -vs- a shove, call?

Besides, if UTG folds, he gets the “was I bluffed?” vibe started. 🙂

Poker is soooo much easier away from the table. (but still hard, for me anyway, lol) I think it’s probably pretty close no matter how it’s played.

PS. Tell your girlfriend/webmaster it’s 2010! (copyright at bottom of page. hehe)

I do a lot of things that rely on my opponents not playing in the manner that I believe to be best. In fact it’s how I make money at this game. I think UTG is actually more likely to shove 55 than to call with it when I take this line, for one thing.

Good point. I didn’t look at the stack sizes; I assumed seeing UTG overbet that other players were similarly sized. If that’s the case, then he’s 3 barrelling with bottom set – and the river is a half pot bet essentially. Maybe I’m missing something, but when I hit a set, I want stacks. Particularly when stacks are half pot on the river.

It’s not really a river overbet. Hero only has $408 left and BB only has like $491 left. So effectively it’s only about a half pot bet or less bet for both opponents if I am not mistaken.