Archive for August, 2010

Thanks for all your help so far in generating this list. Now that I’ve got a revised version of it, let me try to explain a bit more about what I’m going for here.

I believe that a bet or raise should always have an objective (or objectives), and that you should know your objective(s) before betting. This is crucial both to decide whether to bet at all and to size your bets appropriately. In theory, one ought to be able to write an equation for the value of a bet as a function of some combination of factors on this list.

For example, if I make a pot-sized shove with As Qd on an Qh Ts 5s flop in a heads up pot, I believe the value of that bet would be equal to

Value + Protection + Deception

Some of these can be calculated more precisely than others. For Value, I can make an educated guess about how often he will call with worse hands and what my equity is against that calling range. Likewise I can determine how much equity his folding range has. Deception is much less precise, since we are talking about the extent to which shoving AQ here increases the profitablity of a shove with a hand like AJ in some similar future situation.  Read the complete post...

Last week’s double float cost me about half my chips on the first hand of the $700 NAPT-Los Angeles satellite and was not so popular with the commenters. Here’s a similar bluff somewhat deeper in the same tournament this week. Our Villain is a slightly better target: I couldn’t tell you much about his playstyle, but overall I believe he’s a better player than last week’s Villain. I described the previous opponent as a 3rd tier Pocket Fiver, and this guy would be closer to top tier, maybe tier 1.5

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 530 Tournament, 250/500 Blinds 25 Ante (8 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t38150)
CO (t19145)
Button (t46070)
Hero (SB) (t15484)
BB (t40291)
UTG (t10654)
UTG+1 (t16138)
MP1 (t29062)

Hero’s M: 16.30

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K
1 fold, UTG+1 bets t1250, 4 folds, Hero calls t1000, 1 fold

Flop: (t3200) 4, 8, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

Turn: (t3200) J (2 players)
Hero bets t2468, UTG+1 calls t2468

River: (t8136) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t6666, 1 fold

Total pot: t8136

Results:
Hero didn’t show A, K (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t8136  Read the complete post...

3 spots pay

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 109 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 50 Ante (4 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) (t8288)
Button (t219)
SB (t4401)
BB (t17092)

Hero’s M: 10.36

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8, 8
Hero calls t400, Button calls t169 (All-In), SB calls t200, BB bets t17042 (All-In), 2 folds

Flop: (t1569) Q, 10, K (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t1569) J (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t1569) 4 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t1569

Results:
Button had 8, 10 (one pair, tens).
BB had A, A (straight, Ace high).
Outcome: BB won t1569

Anything other than checking it down all the way here is just preposterously bad and demonstrates a really fundamental lack of understanding of satellite strategy. This was surprising because Villain is a Team PokerStars Online Pro who plays a ton of these things and had otherwise played quite well as we approached the bubble.

None of us here has an interest in anything other than maximizing the odds of busting the short stack on this hand.

Their flawless software that is now the best and most secure in the industry apparently produced this little gem in the UBOC O/8 event the other day. The bet sizes were all screwed up, enabling people to limp in for 15 at the 50/100 level, and for the player in the Big Blind to move all in. Their response was to cancel the tournament, refund buy-ins, and offer a freeroll for affected players with about $10,000 in UBOC championship event buy-ins added.

Thanks to TwoPlusTwo poster FreeFalling for this awesome image!

I was telling my girlfriend about the latest online poker gossip/scandal involving an alleged chatlog in which Thorladen and Imperium discuss multi-accounting with the help of services like GoToMyPC that allow you to access other computers remotely from a different computer anywhere in the world. The basic idea, and something that has surely happened dozens of times whether these two actually did it or not, is for a very good tournament player to stake several decent but less-good tournament players in super-profitable online events like the WCOOP or the FTOPS. Should one of the horses start to get deep in the tournament, the better player can take over for the decisions that will have the biggest impact on the team’s EV.

“They’re like poker fluffers,” she quipped without missing a beat. “They get it started, and then the pro comes in to finish it off. You’d have to be a pretty big tool to agree to something like that, not just ethically but like… as a matter of personal respect.”

I agree, though I’m sure plenty of people care a lot more about getting backed for these tournaments by any means necessary, not to mention getting to take credit for the win on sites like Pocket 5′s, than they do about stuff like ethics and personal respect. Anyway, I think “Poker Fluffers” is a brilliant names for these clowns, and I encourage you all to do your part to make it stick!

I really had no idea what to put UTG+1 on here, but I didn’t think he’d play anything better than 99 this way on the flop. Obviously the K is rather unlikely to hit him, and while his turn bet is weird, I also wasn’t sure he’d check Kings on the river. Given the number of draws out there, though, I do think his line is a good one. I still like my value bet, though, even if knowing he can occasionally have a K.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($162)
Hero (Button) ($414.60)
SB ($309)
BB ($413)
UTG ($522.60)
UTG+1 ($544)
MP1 ($889.40)
MP2 ($335.80)
MP3 ($634.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 9
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $16, 4 folds, Hero calls $16, SB calls $14, 1 fold

Flop: ($52) 3, 7, 6 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $17, SB calls $17, UTG+1 calls $17

Turn: ($103) K (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets $55, Hero calls $55, 1 fold

River: ($213) 6 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $166, UTG+1 calls $166

Total pot: $545 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 9, 9 (two pair, nines and sixes).
UTG+1 had A, K (two pair, Kings and sixes).
Outcome: UTG+1 won $542

Honestly I can probably even fold the flop. Granted I have one of the best bluff-catching hands, but it’s just so unlikely Villain is bluffing here. Calling the flop to see what he does on the turn reduces the chance that I end up folding to trips with a worse kicker, but he’s one of the better Rush players, so I kind of doubt he’s overvaluing such a hand this way in the first place.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($648.60)
CO ($602.05)
Button ($160.90)
Hero (SB) ($420)
BB ($413.50)
UTG ($452.90)
UTG+1 ($219)
MP1 ($400)
MP2 ($860.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, 8
5 folds, CO calls $4, Button calls $4, Hero calls $2, BB checks

Flop: ($16) 8, 4, 8 (4 players)
Hero bets $16, BB raises to $48, 2 folds, Hero calls $32

Turn: ($112) J (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $92, Hero folds

Total pot: $112 | Rake: $3

Results:
BB didn’t show
Outcome: BB won $109

This first hand is an interesting juxtaposition to the failed bluff that I posted yesterday. On the one hand, this player was more of a known quantity than was yesterday’s Villain. On the other hand, my range is way wider in this situation, and I think calling with something like 99 is far more justifiable:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($400)

Hero (UTG+1) ($456)

MP1 ($1143.80)

MP2 ($650.90)

MP3 ($451.50)

CO ($58.30)

Button ($197.10)

SB ($446.20)

BB ($960.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, K

1 fold, Hero bets $16, 5 folds, SB calls $14, 1 fold

Flop: ($36) Q, Q, 6 (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets $30, SB calls $30

Turn: ($96) 3 (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets $77, SB calls $77

River: ($250) 8 (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets $333 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $250 | Rake: $3

Results:

Hero didn’t show A, K (nothing).

Outcome: Hero won $247

This one is just neat because of the side pot dynamic. As you can see, the short stack’s range was stupid wide, so between the fact that even on the river I’m probably ahead of him and the fact that there is money in the sidepot, I think this is a neat bluff:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com  Read the complete post...