With 200bb stacks i’d think you’d want your bluff 4-bets to be slightly more nutted drawing hands, specifically to avoid this situation.

Another question if you don’t mind. 🙂 Is the reason to raise bigger with the draw to commit himself to calling if you shove over top? And for the smaller-sized raises, assuming he had a balanced range, I take it he’d make them with made hands and complete air?

This is a great blog, BTW. Glad I discovered it.

You’d be surprised. In a situation like this, there’s not a lot I can do about it, and I can see why he might prefer to just play his hand and take the chance of me figuring out what it is. Only if I’m good enough to do something like fold this hand or shove on him with Ace-high does it really become a problem that he’s turned his hand face up as a big draw.

I think folding the flop is best, actually. I guess I could call and get it in if I turn a pair or a straight, but folding flop is better.

I certainly didn’t know I was good. I decided I was good often enough to call just because this was a good sequence of cards for him to bluff/semi-bluff. Pre-flop he 3-bet maybe 15-20% of the time and knew I was calling him light, so it doesn’t take much for him to bet the flop. Then he could easily have turned a draw or just fired again with air, and then the Ace looks like a good card to bluff. His bet sizing on the river is suspicious, as I’m not even sure he’d bet that much with an Ace. Especially if I’m putting him on a polarized range, I think he gets to the river with plenty enough air to warrant a call.

Meh, you probably know I don’t like the draw/made hand distinction. I think it would be much worse for him to stick his money in with 9d8d even though that would be top pair rather than “just” a draw.