Good question, James. For one thing, I was putting him on a more narrow 3-betting range than you are, and more narrow than it was, apparently. I was thinking that a lot of second best hands like JJ or KQ would either shove the turn or pay off a bet on the river for close to what I would stack them for by raising the flop anyway. When I am behind, it’s generally to 2 or 3 outs, so I don’t mind the free cards to much. Plus checking gives him a chance to bluff or turn a second best hand with AK/AJ. That was my thinking, anyway- it can’t promise it was right!

I’m not sure I follow. Is your argument that there is some premium to eliminating players in a shootout such that even a slightly -cEV play could be correct? Or simply that unlike in other tournament situations, you should pass up fewer marginally +cEV plays in a shootout? The former doesn’t seem intuitively right to me, but the latter does. I still don’t see it as being a decision-rule here, though.

That means it’s hard to call if a K, 9, 8 hits. J, T, 7, or 2 also isn’t great (which is a lot of cards :). And anything else only gives action as bluffs or made sets. The other thing is that a plain call means you basically give him two free cards, if he wants them.

Anyway, just curious on your reasoning there, if you have time.

Hey Lin,

I’m not sure how this being a shootout should make calling more or less correct. The fact remains that we have a bluff-catcher and villains bluffing range given this action should be ridiculously narrow.

I mean, we rep Qx so normally here, and who expects someone to fold Qx getting 5:1?

This is 44 or a tarp like 95% of the time. Yeah you’re toward the top of your range, but unless villain is a complete spazz you’re good here basically never.

I think it’s 100% correct because it’s a shootout, which puts an enormous premium on eliminating players. You have a chance here to do just that, and you’ll still have a healthy stack if it fails.

I’m not sure anything else really matters, to be honest.

The only way I could fold here is if I know the player well enough to believe he never makes small all-in bluffs, and I don’t think 10% three-bettors are likely to be that type.

44.5 if you’re gonna round, which i guess means villian has 45?

I actually decided he maybe could bluff, since my intention with the small river bet was to represent a blocking bet. Really I was hoping he called with some sort of medium pair, because that’s what I put him on when he bet 1/3 pot on the flop. There’s even some chance he turns a small pair into a bluff trying to get me off of like 99 or something, though I think he’s far more likely to call than to shove with such a hand.

I was half-right. He did have a small pair on the flop, but it was 44, and he rivered a set, which is of course the single most likely explanation here (excepting the pre-flop 3-bet, which I think is pretty bad).

In theory, the fact that I’m getting good pot odds doesn’t mean he should never bluff, only that he should bluff very rarely (in proportion to the odds he is offering me and his value betting range, in fact).

I’m about to post the results in my next comment reply.

That’s a good question, and a tricky one to answer. I would argue that it is not, though I wouldn’t be surprised if Villain thought it was. If you think about my range for check-calling the flop, it really doesn’t include hands that could improve the river, which would be one of the main advantages of slowplaying. If hands like AK and AJ were in my range, then checking turn could make sense in the hopes that I would either bluff the river or improve to a hand that could pay off the shove.

My range both is and looks like mostly one pair, which could be as good as AA or as weak as 88, with some outside chance of a slowplayed set of my own. I think I’m actually more likely to call a turn shove than a river shove with a hand like 88 (though I’d probably call neither), as I think hands like AK or AJ are more likely in his turn shoving range than his turn-checking-then-river-shoving-range.

So in conclusion, I thought it was unlikely but not impossible that he was slowplaying the turn.