Tournament Overbet Bluff

Second hand of the Stars $300. I figured I was going to take it easily on the turn because there just aren’t strong hands in BB’s range. I figure randoms raise 2-pair on the flop like 80% of the time at least, and he’s not checking AA/JJ preflop. By the river it’s like, “Buddy I know you have some bullshit but you just might be fishy enough to call pot with some random Ace so let’s really pour on the pressure.” He timed all the way down, but he did fold.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 320 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t3000)
Button (t2990)
Hero (SB) (t2980)
BB (t3000)
UTG (t3500)
UTG+1 (t3000)
MP1 (t3000)
MP2 (t3000)
MP3 (t2530)

Hero’s M: 99.33

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, Q
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t20, 5 folds, Hero calls t10, BB checks

Flop: (t60) A, J, 4 (3 players)
Hero bets t60, BB calls t60, UTG+1 calls t60

Turn: (t240) 7 (3 players)
Hero bets t400, BB calls t400, 1 fold

River: (t1040) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets t2500 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: t1040

Results:
Hero didn’t show 10, Q (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t1040

12 thoughts on “Tournament Overbet Bluff

  1. I’m really curious on what you would put UTG with the limp, flop call? Suited connected cards that are floating the flop to see if you barrel again? Do you think that if you had bet less/checked on the turn that UTG raises it with air/22-66 hands?

    If you were in Villains(BB) shoes is it a super hard call on the river with Ax 1 pair hands after Hero(SB) had limped along then triple barreled all the way to the river?

    If he was going to fold the River should Villain have folded the Turn? Since if he was behind with Ax hands and was willing to call with 2pair hands on the River he’s only drawing to 3 outs? Granted he doesn’t know if you’re going to bomb the River and I think it shows that he hadn’t anticipated it since he used up all of his time bank and then folded.

    One of the reasons I’m making my noob comments is I’m going to start playing Poker again and the comments on hear aren’t nearly as critical as the 2+2 forums on noobies. So thanks!

  2. My only problem with the hand is that the guy limp-called UTG early in a tournament, which is not per se bad, but would still make me think that it’s more likely that this guy isn’t all that good than that he’s a reg at those stakes. And if he’s not very good that increases both the chance that he’ll call down with some weak Ax and that he’s slowplaying 2pr+.
    I never really got into the whole survival vs accumulation debate with regards to optimal tournament strategy, but I can’t help but wonder if it’s a good idea to pull off a huge bluff this early against a guy you have no info on.

    • I’d be very worried that BB’s willingness to call my massive turn bet is because he doesn’t want to raise UTG out of the hand.

      I think he probably should play two pair or a set differently than he did, but that doesn’t mean he would play them differently. Nobody bets their hands these days.

  3. Shaundeeb snaps you as per his 2+2 post so it seems like your read that this will work against anyone except a very good player who knows who you are looks to be spot on.

    • Wait I got that backwards… and now am confused. You say it worked bc he was a good player, but good player says he would have called bc you don’t take this line for value much if at all.

      …..

  4. My take on V’s play is that if you’re going to call an overbet on the turn with the hand he claims to have had, and your hand improves on the river, it’s an automatic call. Otherwise, what were we doing calling the turn instead of folding or shoving right there? Was he hoping to see a cheap showdown? In that case he should have bet the turn himself to control the bet size.

    I think also he fares better here if he bets the flop. Yet another example of how passivity from out of position with a likely best but vulnerable holding backfires.

    As for your line of play…well, it worked. But I don’t think it’s going to work often enough to show a profit.

    Loved your comment over at the Evil Empire: “Oh hi didn’t realize you were a 2+2’er. Lucky that you were.”

    Be sure to wipe the blood off the blade before you put it away.

    On a not entirely unrelated note (as we’re talking about 2+2ers), this morning I ran across one of the top ten dumbest online poker IDs ever – “myhudisbroke”.

    • He can’t bet the flop because hero alread bet when it gets to him. I’m not sure about the turn. I think in a limped pot, there’s definitely some chance that hero gives up on the river if he’s bluffing/semibluffing. It’s reasonable to think in villain’s shoes that hero’s just trying to bully him off some pretty weak range. But that range gets a lot stronger when villain calls again on the turn and some of the time hero might give up. Combine that with the fact that hero has the NFD to go with his top pair (with decent implied odds vs sets/combo draws)and that hero’s range is super polarized and I don’t mind the turn call. But folding might still be better.
      I think that’s also the main reason why villain folded on the river. He shows a lot of strength by calling again on the turn, so it’s a pretty sick bluff hero pulled off especially considering the fact that the tournament only just started.

      • You’re right. For some reason I thought Andrew was the button.

        I agree that’s probably what Villain was thinking on the turn. Calling the turn makes more sense given his position over the bettor,

        I still think he should raise the flop, however.

  5. People don’t call overbets. I like the river. I think it’s hard to put him on 2 pair but it definitely looks like a weak AX.

    I def agree with the people on 2+2 who said that he should have raised flop. A8hh is practically the nuts on the flop and I would love to get it in in these kind of spots.

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