Hero (UTG+1) (t5220)
Hero’s M: 116.00
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 3, 3
1 fold, Hero calls t30, MP1 calls t30, MP2 calls t30, 1 fold, CO calls t30, 1 fold, SB calls t15, BB checks
Flop: (t180) 3, 8, 7 (6 players)
SB bets t120, 1 fold, Hero raises to t499, MP1 raises to t1797, 3 folds, Hero folds
Total pot: t1298
MP1 didn’t show
Outcome: MP1 won t1298
I imagine this will be controversial. The problem is that I’m so buried by the sets in his range that I have to put a fair bit of other stuff in his range, and I’d expect him to 3-bet pot or larger with two pair or combo draws. This isn’t a fold I’d make against a better player, but tournament guys (I vaguely recognized this screenname) are generally pretty bad about balancing their bet sizing in obscure spots like this.
And here’s the bluff:
Hero (Button) (t16867)
Hero’s M: 74.96
Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 10
5 folds, CO bets t300, Hero raises to t800, 2 folds, CO raises to t2200, Hero calls t1400
Flop: (t4625) 7, A, 8 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets t1500, CO calls t1500
Turn: (t7625) 9 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets t2500, CO calls t2500
River: (t12625) 8 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets t10667 (All-In), CO calls t10075 (All-In)
Total pot: t32775
Hero had 10, 10 (two pair, tens and eights).
CO had Q, A (two pair, Aces and eights).
Outcome: CO won t32775
I’m not wild about his 4-bet pre-flop, but otherwise I think he played this well. I expected him to have a big pair and mostly called pre-flop to setmine. I put him on JJ-KK when he checked the flop and decided to triple barrel him off of it, even before I turned the straight draw. Assuming he would actually play those hands this way, then check-calling with AQ is a very good way to balance that and prevent me from exploiting him by doing exactly this.