Check-Raise-Folding for Value

I think this is one of the worst hands I’ve played in a while:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($646.60)
SB ($1000)
Hero (BB) ($1000)
UTG ($458)
MP ($2288.55)
CO ($1148)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, Q
2 folds, CO bets $30, 2 folds, Hero calls $20

Flop: ($65) 10, 5, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $50, Hero raises to $170, CO raises to $290, Hero raises to $970 (All-In), CO calls $680

Turn: ($2005) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($2005) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $2005 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had K, Q (two pair, Queens and sevens).
CO had 10, 10 (full house, tens over sevens).
Outcome: CO won $2002

This guy has a wide range for raising from this position and betting even a textured flop like this, and consequently I think I can check-raise KQ for value. He can call and possibly even make a big 3-bet with worse because he will expect me to have a lot of draws. I think his small 3-bet has to be strong, though, because I will so often have a draw good enough to jam. Even if he occasionally 3-bets as a bluff, I’m crushed by his calling range, which contains few if any draws. What I really need to do here is check-raise-shove good draws but check-raise-fold KQ, at least to a 3-bet of this size.

4 thoughts on “Check-Raise-Folding for Value

  1. andrew, in your mind what are the pros/cons to taking the lead on this flop? i’m assuming you have a range that wouldn’t only be TPGK or NFD, but would donking this flop be putting you in a vulnerable situation too much since he’s likely to call behind, but never re-raise, with a range that’s still too wide going to the turn? or is this type of play extremely villain-dependent?

    • The problem with donking is that it greatly reduces the likelihood that my opponent will bluff. If I thought he were not going to bluff anyway, I might consider betting. However, I believe this player was extremely likely to make a continuation bet when he missed this flop, and checking gives him the opportunity to do that. So in that sense, it’s Villain-dependent.

  2. I was wondering if you could do a more in depth analysis or article regarding this issue. I know you have one out there already where you talk about having AK vs say 22-55 against an opponents range and that in some instances you’d rather have AK since you’re much more “ahead” of his range or have more outs compared to the small pocket pairs.

    I feel that this hand is an instance of what you were talking about in that article and even though I understand it at face value I feel like it’s one of those things that I need to “unlearn” so to speak.

    I’m not sure if it comes across but the whole line of thinking of “drawing hands on the flop have more value then made hands compared to villains range” is I wouldn’t say completely confusing but more examples or explanation would help me tremendously.

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