That makes sense. I guess at the level I play at this shove on the river is almost either the FH/flushes/trips(90%) or complete air(10%).

My opponents see that they have a good one pair hand and will either bet small (like 1/6th the pot) to induce a call with worse or they will check behind. This happens quiet a lot on paired boards or when a back door flush gets there.

As you noted the way the hand played out your monsters are a small range and your bluff catching range is where you’re most likely at. For me at the 10NL I don’t really have to worry about KJ type hands on the river shoving for value as most of my opponents are to afraid that you either were slow playing a 6 or picked up the flush draw on the turn that now hit and you’re going for a check raise.

Because with the line of, Raise, CBet, Check-Call, Check at my limit is normally a sign of a huge hand/draw that’s trying to get a shove. Which in this case did get a shove and then hero would snap off with a 6x/ak/flush. Because at this level TPWK is almost never going to call a huge over shove on the river unless it’s a spite call so KJ hands lose value since you won’t be called by worse and when you do get called you’ll be behind.

I’m glad I could provide some useful feed back although I think the point of view that I’m making is from a different subset of players. I’ve learned a lot from your articles and your posts so I’m looking forward to the next ones.

Thanks for the comment, Shawn. I think what you’re essentially saying is that while Villain’s line may be the best to take with KJ against the bluff-catching portion of my range, it is not best against either my monsters or my air. The thing is, as the hand has played out (and this probably a mistake on my part), my range consists overwhelmingly of bluff-catchers, nearly all of which are worse than KJ. After check-calling 150 on the turn, I am extremely unlikely to have a hand that needs to check-raise bluff the river, so I don’t think he should plan around that. And while I may occasionally have a slowplayed monster, if I were in his shoes I would put me squarely on something that can beat my bluffs but not my KJ. Against that range, shoving is best no matter which hand he happens to have this time.

“8” should say “6”. I’m not sure how often you’d call with an 8 but you’d obviously always call with a 6.

As you noted if you were in Villains shoes you’d feel pretty good about KJ as the best hand. I think Villain gets more value from betting smaller trying to induce a shove or a call with worse.

I also think that maybe he would try to induce a bluff check-jam flush draw from you as maybe you picked up the flush draw on the turn although unlikely. By jamming he’s never giving you a chance to bluff at it. Which I think he would do with an 8 or good K.

He gives you less ways to make a mistake.

As soon as he jams he folds out all your air hands. You’re calling with an 8 or any flush. You’d also call with an “good king” ak/kq/kj/k10. So at this point the amount of hands you’re going to call a jam with are very numerous relative to what he beats. (if he hand KJ)

If he bets small or some normal amount for the river (although I’m not sure there is a normal amount since he’s pretty much committed since if he bet like 250 and you jammed he’d be getting 3.5 to 1)he calls any air hands you jammed with but he also calls all the hands that already hand him beat.

I’m not sure any of that makes sense and you have to remember I play 3.40 SNG’s and like .02/.05.

Even a fairly small sample is significant, but it has a big margin of error (MoE). A TAFq with a MoE of 10 points is not going to be very refined, but there would still be a significant and obvious difference between a TAFq of 35 and a TAFq of 65.

I’m not saying I’m picking TAFq (or any other stat), just pointing out that even a small sample size can be meaningful as long as you understand that the MoE is likely to be big.

I call < pot, then bet most if not all turns. Depending on the player and our previous history, I might check-raise a draw or king. I'd probably check a 6 or 8, planning to bet the river if he checks behind on the turn.

The c-bet on the flop is too obvious, too dullsville. I'd expect the typical 5/10 "winning regular" to float a call with almost anything, to see what you do on the turn. With so little fold equity, the c-bet just isn't that attractive. I figure to have a better chance of swiping the pot on the turn, and I could pick up a cheap draw to boot. Also, since he's expecting me to c-bet, a check may sow a bit of FUD, especially on a paired board. No law against my having a 6 or 88.

I was thinking if he is the kind of player who bets these turns with weak holdings to try and take it down on turn, then this same type of player “might” feel compelled to bluff the river since the backdoor flush seems like a good card to bluff especially when he doesn’t think you have a k or 6 very often as you checked turn, checked river. Plus I think he thinks you bet a flush draw on the turn quite often but I could be wrong about that.

It seems equally as unlikely that both of you have a flush so in these spots the first to bet seems most likely to win.

the TAFq gives us more info because there’s a larger range of hands that would call a cbet, and a tighter range of hands that would call a cbet AND bet the turn. it’s important to know how often he bets the turn to help with this range.

reasons for him to bet the turn:
-monster hand trying to get value
-air with no showdown value trying to steal (but the fcb would tell us if that is possible)
-bluffing with a draw (a non-Ahi FD)

the TAFq would tell us if he’s more likely to check behind with his drawing hand or to bet his drawing hand.

hope this makes sense…

In case you haven’t seen it yet: https://www.thinkingpoker.net/2011/01/the-poker-ethicist-heads-up-displays/

Once you’ve narrowed it down to FCB or TAFq, why do you choose the latter?

“If his TAFq is high I think you have to call the river.”

Could you elaborate? It’s not clear to me why this follows logically. Not saying I disagree, just don’t follow your reasoning.

Interesting. You are the first person to suggest trying to get a feel for how many value hands he shows up with on the river rather than how many potential bluffs are in his range.

Thanks!

What’s your plan if he bets?

Thanks, Shawn. I like your reasoning here. The only thing I’d question is your claim that he can’t play a better K this way. If I were in his shoes, I’d feel quite confident that KJ was the best hand, so why shouldn’t he value bet it?

I agree that I don’t beat anything he’s value betting. That will almost always be true when I take this line, though. If I always fold the river, I open myself up to exploitation by bluffs. I suspect that he could have other weak hands besides busted straight draws…

respectfully disagree, and i don’t even use an HUD as i’m a live fish. if it’s within the rules then why wouldn’t you use it? isn’t the difference between winning and losing players the edges that winners have over losers? one could easily draw a correlation here to players who play GTO to those who don’t, no? i think i get your point in that players should not have software that keeps tabs on others, but it’s legal for one, and imo why wouldn’t someone try and keep an edge over another if the whole object is to win $.

but a combination of the fold to cbet/turn aggression would be also important to see if he commonly floats and steals.

to answer the question- using one factor- i think the turn aggression is the most important.

i agree with shawn that the best indicator for this particular hand is FA since we’re essentially in a monster/air decision at the river. while we cannot rule out backdoor flushes and some miracle FH, it’s much more likely villian made his decision on the flop for this hand as he is a winning reg and thus not as likely to just put $ in without a plan.

in a vacuum it’s not like you’ve repped much of anything at any point and in a way your hand is under-repped, which would make me think he’s making this move as a bluff unless he has some reason to think you may call him down light here. i’d be very tempted to call but could just as easily level myself into folding and feeling embarrassed when he shows 45s.

Vs a good player river is probably close to 0EV either way tbh, assuming he can overbet with more than just the nuts. There is enough JT, J9 T9, 54, 97 etc that probably play like this to make the river near 0 EV.

Who villain is (screenname) and how you think he views you would be the deciding factor here.

Since you only have 400 hands together i’m assuming he doesn’t know a ton about you, pushing me slightly more towards a call, and given we are toward the top of our range given this line, that’s probably where i’d come down on it.

He calls a standard raise in a BvB.

Flop:
We make what I feel is a standard CB. He calls. Now he could have a flush draw, 8, 6, 79, or overs. I believe the reason is because he’s most likely going to float you as this board is not likely to hit us either.

Turn:
We check on a “scare card”. He makes bet of about 3/4 of the pot and we call with our TPWK OOP.

River:
We check again and villain over shoves the pot.

What hands do this on the river and what does villain expect to get called by? At this point I think he either has a monster or air(I know not real shocking!), but not a hand with showdown value.

I wouldn’t think he’d do this with an 8 or better King since we called the turn bet OOP and we could face another bet on the river. Plus those hands have some showdown value and don’t have to bluff the river.

So which stat gives us the best read on whether he has the nuts or air?

Voluntarily Put Money In Pot (VP$IP)
Pre-Flop Raise (PFR)
Three-Bet Percent (3B%)
Of these stats in this situation I don’t think any of these would help us. If he’s a winning reg and a thinking player he could play a wide range of hands in position in a BvB. Monsters or Air.

Fold to Continuation Bet (FCB)
If this stat was really high he’s most likely not floating us to often. Also if this stat is really low I think he could have a lot of “air” hands.

Aggression Factor (AF)
Flop Aggression Frequency (FAFq)
Turn Aggression Frequency (TAFq)
River Aggression Frequency (RAFq)
I think the flop aggression frequency is the better stat here because first we’re leading on a semi-wet board and yet he just flats us. If his FAFq was high and he just flats us I’d expect more monsters and less air.

Interesting that I think his FAFq would help me the most. If it’s normally really high I’d fold this river. It was really low I think I’d call.

I can’t wait until Sunday! Both for the games and for your response. =)

He could also be bluffing with a missed straight draw, either 97 or 75. You do have one of the sevens so that’s unlikely but still possible. I guess a high AF would be needed to determine that but it would be indistinguishable from a flush draw. I’d prefer to look at his showdown win % for that one but of course you didn’t give that option.

I suspect I know your answer.Voluntarily Put Money In Pot (VP$IP)-the most synthetic one.
“just one” and only which make sense in absence of the rest.OK?