Comments on: What’s Your Play? Deep Stacked With a Set

By: Gareth

Gareth — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 23:58:13 +0000

J9 and AJ have 32 combos between them…. that’s a lot

check back without more info

By: TM

TM — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 13:27:58 +0000

In reply to Chris M.

“I just can’t see why he’d check a hand that we beat when every draw bricks and hero is repping effectively a bluffcatcher.”

This is what I was thinking… if he was trying to induce a bluff from whiffed draws, I guess a check isn’t terrible though, right? He’s losing a lot of value against hands with mediocre showdown value that will most likely check behind though. Probably a better spot to under-bet to induce or something like that.

By: James Antill

James Antill — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 04:07:57 +0000

I mostly agree with chris and shawn, in that I’d want to either check back because he “must” have it or bet/call like $450 to get any value we can from his missed draws. I guess I kind of understand why you don’t just ship the flop, as you are either crushed or flipping when he calls. But I have no idea why you just called the turn … why don’t you just shove here, as this would balance the times you’d want to do this when you have just KdJd or even 9d8d.

Also you’ve said that calling shows more strength than raising, so he might call a turn shove with KQ but is unlikely to want to put more money in with that on the river.

By: Chris M

Chris M — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 22:51:38 +0000

I just can’t see why he’d check a hand that we beat when every draw bricks and hero is repping effectively a bluffcatcher.

There’s really just no reason he shouldn’t be jamming river w/ AJ or J9, esp when the board rolls off so well for you to “hero call” with a hand like AA, AK, or some pair+draw like QJ that now assumes he’s repping nuts/air.

So – I think you’re ahead on the river like 90+% when he checks. Might as well shove and hope he hero-calls with KQ, QT or a similar combo draw turned pair himself.

Bet/folding seems pretty bleh, and hard to rep a bluff with a small river bet, and bet/calling to induce a bluffjam seems a little optimistic to me, as its very hard for him to c/r bluff with so little left behind.

Checking behind I guess I don’t agree with, mostly because I think we so rarely have the worst hand. He’s just costing himself so much money by not betting river w/ TT+ when we snap check back our 1 pair holdings (which is a decent part of your range).

Even if he did check river with a strong hand, no reason for him to think 1st hand of the match you just turn your QJ into a bluff or something.

By: Shawn

Shawn — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 22:50:25 +0000

In reply to Shawn. Should say effective stacks of 1400 not 1400 bb's. :)

By: Shawn

Shawn — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 18:34:24 +0000

I think it’s good to note that effective stacks are like 1400(BB). If those that are betting small and then folding to a shove I think that’s incorrect.

Say you bet 600 a third of the pot. you’d have 1800+600+1400 with an 800 call. You’re almost getting 5 to 1 on your money. You’d have to be right 20% of the time to show a profit, correct?

I think you can narrow villains hand ranges down to 1p straight/flush combos, 2p and straights. You’d get 3b most likely vs KK, QQ and I’m not sure 77 or 66 is 3betting that flop.

KJs, AJs, J9s, 98s, KQ, K10, Q10

Our hand looks like also what we’re putting villain on a lot of combo hands since we called the 3b on the flop. But the call on the turn I think narrows our range away from combo hands since we can’t realistically expect to get paid off from worse hands if a straight/flush card comes on the river.

So I think that he can put us on AJs, KK, QQ, 1010, 9d8d, AdKd, KdJd, Jd9d. With our range narrowed so much I don’t think anything calls us on the river except a straight.

His check on the river is either to induce or to fold. Either way the only way more money is getting into the middle is if he has us beat. I think I’d check.

(my brain is mush, working a lot lately hopefully everything made sense)

By: Sleepy

Sleepy — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 15:07:40 +0000

It’s close, but with no particular information about the player, I think I would bet small with the intention of calling a shove. Sometimes he will have been checking to induce, then be realizing his pair + draw has no showdown value vs. your value range, so he feels like he needs to bluff the river now. A small river bet looks like thin value or a last-ditch attempt at a cheap bluff with a busted draw, so he may feel like he can get you to release anything weaker than a set. Sometimes he will have checked the nuts, and it’s a cooler. I don’t like checking back a hand this strong early in the match… seems like an invitation to get run over.

By: Bond2King

Bond2King — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 13:46:31 +0000

A very player dependent spot, but given the minimal information I think I would just check back. Given the deep stacks you can’t rule out AJ just because he didn’t 3-bet, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he would take this line with that and J9 a lot. I think he probably shuts down on the turn with any two pair worse than KQ (and you have two Tens as blockers anyway), so KQ and Kx with two diamonds seem like the only hands to get value from, and I doubt that he’s calling with one pair (I think he might play Kxdd differently anyhow). Unless you’re pretty sure he wouldn’t check a straight on the river, the range he’s calling you with seems smaller than the range that beats you (more combos of just AJ than KQ, not even counting the J9). Besides, he could always find the fold with KQ or check-raise bluff you on the river if you bet small (you would have to fold).

By: Andy

Andy — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 11:04:33 +0000

In reply to Andy. Hero flop and turn calls scream: "POT CONTROL" . So my prediction reg vs reg for river line : CHECK,CHECK.

By: Zoltz

Zoltz — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 10:56:03 +0000

I think I should check behind and hope that he was bluffing. With the deep stacks, his flop-3bet, and the straights out since the flop, flopped bottom set is not that strong, but he will probably call with any stronger hand since the flush draw missed.

By: Andy

Andy — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 10:51:45 +0000

Hero range is dominated by made hands.
a)If I were BB I will river-check nuts “always”.
The check will skew my range in direction of missed draws-particulary flush draw.
Hopefully the Hero will polarize his range by betting river in responce to my check.

b)If I miss the draw I will limit my bluffing to just explicitly shove -a bluff or rebluff very small percentage of the time.Hopefully he will fold his set.LOL

By: drew

drew — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 04:27:43 +0000

I think the range which he calls a bet here with is mostly one pair or two pair kind of hands (one pair being ones with combo draws). I would assume he would be more likely to call a smaller bet than a pot sized one, so I would bet around 700-800. The other parts of his range is air/missed draws – which he never calls with, and maaaaybe a straight? but that’s soo unlikely, I assume AJ 3bets so the only hand that would do that is maybe 89 or J9. I don’t think he has a straight though.
So since his hand looks like one pair, I value bet small ish, and vomit if he check shoves.

By: ChngToh

ChngToh — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 04:24:23 +0000

Should have raised big on turn, jam any river. Missed out so much value.

As what Adam said, there are so many hands to get value from, pair+sd, fd, two pair etc, ure losing money by not raising at any point. Given that ur deep, the whole hand should be how to get your stack in. What r u afraid of?Over set? Chances of that are like 1 in 100 and further more ur HU. After u ship it in, collect the moneys and enjoy.:)

By: Adam K

Adam K — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 04:23:02 +0000

most likely you against KT, KQ or even QT combos. or maybe K9, QJ, AQ, AK, KJ. depends what type of player the BB is. no stats hard to determine… personally i would have raised him on turn, as you would get a call from hands like Kd Jd, Kd 9d, Qh Th, etc … depending on what type of player u against, and how u been playing before this, he might not call on river even if he has 2 pair, but with the info you gave, id go for 2/3 pot. should be a profitable bet in long run. only 30 combos of KK, QQ, AJ or J9 beats you. so many combos of other hands he is more likely to have. if he is ahead, then u just got to pay him off i guess. but with the check on the river, i think u are good. but if he sucking u in for a check raise, then too bad lah 🙂

By: Jeff

Jeff — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 03:03:20 +0000

I agree that it looks more like he has given up and missed his flush. You would have a better idea if you threw a value bet out there instead of shoving, but for me I would have already determined I was good and shoved.

By: Eric

Eric — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 02:57:29 +0000

Hmmm First Hand checking tens here would make me afraid he might try to run over me the rest of the match.
I shove feeling like he might have a king and put you on a missed flush draw combo.
I expect him to fold a lot.
I don’t play this high so I am mostly just guessing 🙂

By: Victor C

Victor C — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 02:52:01 +0000

His flop range consists of made hands as well as semi bluff hands, as he knows that you know a donk bet could mean trying to peel a card cheaply, but when you 3-bet him based on the above assumptions, a 4-bet from him would be both for value or semi-bluffing.

The turn bet from him indicates that he’s trying a semi-bluff/value bet his hand when he assumes that your range consists of any pair + FD, top pair + gutshot or any pair plus OESD. However when you call the turn bet, it narrows your range down to probably K10o+.

When he gives up on the river (seems like that to me) and hope that you check behind at the bottom of your range. At this stage, his range of hands would not consist of AJ or J9, but more likely KJ+ at the bottom of the range.

I would make a small value bet, with the intention of folding to a shove, prolly around $725-$780 and hope he has bluff catching types of hands like K10+.

How did I do? 🙂

My apologies for replying late to your email Andrew, but will get to it asap!

By: Christoph

Christoph — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 01:44:40 +0000

In reply to Christoph. I obviously meant "checking back" instead of "folding" at the end of my post.

By: Christoph

Christoph — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 01:41:42 +0000

Your hand looks a lot like a FD+ pair or gutshot, so I could see him checking this river with AJ or J9. But he might maybe also take this line with something like KT/QT trying to induce a bluff. The problem in general as I see it, is that I can’t really put too many bluff catcher type hands in his range, because the flop 3bet polarizes his range. I don’t see him getting to the river with 1 pair unless he had some Kdxd hand that he was willing to play for stacks on the flop. I don’t know whether he’d like to get in 250 BBs on the flop with like a K8dd.
And if he’s trying to induce a bluff with AJ/J9 as well as QT/KT you really got combinations working against you given that you have two tens in your hand.

I really don’t know how loose he might call a river shove, but it looks to me like his river range is heavily polarized to hands that can’t really call any decent sized bet and hands that want to get all in. And of the latter, there are a lot more straights than 2 pair.

I kinda like betting something small like 456. This bet would be aimed at getting a call from hands that he was bluffing with on the flop, that improved into a bluff catcher. If it calls it also sets up cheap bluff oportunities in the future if you happen to have a busted draw. I’d fold if he shoves, because that would be a pretty sick check-raise bluff.

To be honest, I’m pretty much lost in this spot. I could see shoving, betting small with the intention to call a shove, betting small with the intention to fold to a shove and even folding if he’s not the kind of guy to make hero calls. Last option seems pretty bad though cause I’d think that a there’s value in a bet versus a 5/10 hu reg.

By: Mike

Mike — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 01:37:36 +0000

I’d check back. Seems he has the nut straight based on the bets he made and is asking you to put more money in when flush draw misses river

By: Dana

Dana — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 01:28:46 +0000

I would probably shove at the table, but I’m not sure at all if that is the right play against a good player at these stakes (I’ve never played this high).
I’m not sure what % his range is made up of stronger hands, weaker good hands (like KQ), draws (like J’s), and total bluffs. The first two streets certainly indicate stronger hands in the range, but the river check doesn’t unless he’s the type to check to induce. If you don’t think that is the case, then maybe a small value bet like $500 to get paid off by weaker hands. With a smaller raise, maybe this also allows you to more confidently fold to a raise since it wouldn’t really be large enough for you to fold (unless you think he would level you on this).