Sorry for the lack of posts on here. It’s just that I’ve been playing so much poker that when I’m finished I don’t feel like spending another half-hour at the computer putting together a blog post.
Also I haven’t done anything of great interest in any of the recent WCOOPs. In fact, this is going to be a bit of a whine post. I’ve lost a lot of big pots with set under set and similar “cooler” situations. In most cases, though, I think there’s at least a case to be made that I could have played the hand differently and lost less, so hopefully it will be a little interesting to look at these. I’m actually less likely to make hero folds when I know I’ve been getting coolered a lot recently, because I start to trust my judgment less. I question whether I’m really beat or just seeing monsters under the bed.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 215 Tournament, 60/120 Blinds 25 Ante (9 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 (t6562)
MP3 (t18842)
CO (t9399)
Button (t1569)
SB (t4358)
BB (t5425)
UTG (t8312)
UTG+1 (t1171)
Hero (MP1) (t14061)
Hero’s M: 34.72
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A♥, Q♥
2 folds, Hero bets t300, 1 fold, MP3 calls t300, 2 folds, SB calls t240, 1 fold
Flop: (t1245) 6♥, Q♠, 8♥ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t666, MP3 raises to t1741, 1 fold, Hero calls t1075
Turn: (t4727) 4♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t2347, Hero calls t2347
River: (t9421) 4♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t14429 (All-In), Hero calls t9648 (All-In)
Total pot: t28717
Results:
Hero had A♥, Q♥ (two pair, Queens and fours).
MP3 had 6♠, 6♣ (full house, sixes over fours).
Outcome: MP3 won t28717
I think the river is very foldable. Yeah, a lot of draws missed, but I have blockers to some of them, plus it’s only the best players who can take a draw and play it exactly like it’s a set, including shoving the river. Less good players, which this guy seemed to be, are more likely to bet bigger on the flop and/or turn with their big draws and smaller on the river. Plus there’s the whole survival/tournament life thing where I ought to fold if I think it’s close. What led me to call was the fact that I think this is literally the very top of my range for playing this way. Sets I probably raise on the flop or turn. I guess I could have AA/KK as well, but I don’t think there’s much difference between those and this hand. Villain is repping a very narrow value range, but I think his bluffing range is also very narrow and maybe even non-existent.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 215 Tournament, 60/120 Blinds (9 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO (t5000)
Button (t5774)
SB (t4960)
BB (t4648)
UTG (t4325)
UTG+1 (t4902)
Hero (MP1) (t4295)
MP2 (t4629)
MP3 (t4925)
Hero’s M: 23.86
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6♠, 6♦
2 folds, Hero bets t120, MP2 calls t120, MP3 calls t120, 3 folds, BB calls t80
Flop: (t500) 4♥, 3♣, 9♦ (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t288, MP2 calls t288, MP3 calls t288, 1 fold
Turn: (t1364) 6♥ (3 players)
Hero bets t888, MP2 calls t888, MP3 raises to t3640, Hero raises to t3887 (All-In), MP2 raises to t4221 (All-In), MP3 calls t581
River: (t13693) K♣ (3 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: t13693
Results:
Hero had 6♠, 6♦ (three of a kind, sixes).
MP2 had 9♣, 9♥ (three of a kind, nines).
MP3 had 5♣, 2♣ (straight, six high).
Outcome: MP3 won t13693
Ignore the header here- I had to mess with it to make the converter work. This is from the $300 PL Mix event. I think it’s awfully close at several points. Even betting the flop is questionable, but both of these players were on the loose side, so I think there’s a good chance I win it on the flop or get called by worse.
The turn is trickier. I would fold a set of 4’s, and if I were in MP2’s shoes, I think I could even fold a set of 6’s. I feel like the possibility of lower sets and mayyyyybe even two-pair in their ranges makes it tough to fold 66, but I don’t know. I had a bad feeling about it.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 320 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds 10 Ante (9 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 (t3840)
MP2 (t6803)
MP3 (t3784)
Hero (CO) (t15963)
Button (t9430)
SB (t9190)
BB (t1175)
UTG (t10032)
UTG+1 (t6703)
Hero’s M: 66.51
Preflop: Hero is CO with 5♦, 5♠
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t100, 3 folds, Hero calls t100, 1 fold, SB calls t50, BB checks
Flop: (t490) J♦, 5♥, 9♣ (4 players)
SB bets t280, 2 folds, Hero raises to t888, SB raises to t2488, Hero raises to t15853 (All-In), SB calls t6592 (All-In)
Turn: (t18650) 4♠ (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: (t18650) A♥ (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: t18650
Results:
SB had 9♦, 9♥ (three of a kind, nines).
Hero had 5♦, 5♠ (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: SB won t18650
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 1050 Tournament, 30/60 Blinds (9 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button (t9826)
SB (t14470)
BB (t15742)
UTG (t14405)
Hero (UTG+1) (t16360)
MP1 (t15000)
MP2 (t17169)
MP3 (t14530)
CO (t17935)
Hero’s M: 181.78
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K♠, K♣
UTG bets t150, Hero calls t150, MP1 calls t150, 3 folds, Button calls t150, 2 folds
Flop: (t690) K♦, A♠, Q♣ (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets t400, 2 folds, Hero calls t400
Turn: (t1490) 8♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets t1000, Hero calls t1000
River: (t3490) A♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets t2250, Hero calls t2250
Total pot: t7990
Results:
Hero mucked K♠, K♣ (full house, Kings over Aces).
MP1 had A♣, Q♦ (full house, Aces over Queens).
Outcome: MP1 won t7990
This one might look weird, but I actually think it’s played the best of any of these. Betting the flop here would just look absurdly strong and probably get me at best one street of value from AJ. I expected to win a big pot regardless if anyone had AQ/QQ (barring this river of course), so it was really a matter of how best to extract from lesser hands. If the flop checks through, there’s a lot of value to be had bombing the turn and river, so that’s what I was hoping to do.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 1050 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 25 Ante (9 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB (t22574)
UTG (t14036)
UTG+1 (t20320)
MP1 (t4447)
Hero (MP2) (t20818)
MP3 (t23958)
CO (t25198)
Button (t24622)
SB (t27061)
Hero’s M: 39.65
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A♣, K♣
3 folds, Hero bets t500, 1 fold, CO calls t500, 1 fold, SB calls t400, 1 fold
Flop: (t1925) 2♣, 9♦, 5♥ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t1234, CO calls t1234, 1 fold
Turn: (t4393) K♥ (2 players)
Hero bets t2666, CO calls t2666
River: (t9725) Q♥ (2 players)
Hero bets t6666, CO calls t6666
Total pot: t23057
Results:
Hero had A♣, K♣ (one pair, Kings).
CO had 9♠, 9♣ (three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: CO won t23057
I often forget that it’s harder to get thin value in tournaments than in cash games. In this and the next few hands, that’s arguably my mistake. Here, Villain was a good 2+2 poster who I knew had some hand-reading skill. I had him on a pocket pair, and I thought the board rolled off in a way that he’d expect me to triple barrel. I’m not sure what to do differently, but I don’t love this line.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 215 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds 20 Ante (9 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB (t13987)
UTG (t23235)
UTG+1 (t9298)
Hero (MP1) (t11357)
MP2 (t6755)
MP3 (t8270)
CO (t11080)
Button (t18110)
SB (t10622)
Hero’s M: 28.04
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K♠, K♥
UTG calls t150, UTG+1 calls t150, Hero bets t750, 3 folds, Button calls t750, 2 folds, UTG calls t600, UTG+1 calls t600
Flop: (t3405) K♣, 7♥, 8♠ (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets t1444, 1 fold, UTG calls t1444, 1 fold
Turn: (t6293) J♦ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
River: (t6293) 9♥ (2 players)
UTG bets t1500, Hero raises to t5555, UTG calls t4055
Total pot: t17403
Results:
UTG had 10♦, 10♠ (straight, Jack high).
Hero had K♠, K♥ (three of a kind, Kings).
Outcome: UTG won t17403
Given Villain’s likely UTG limp-calling range, I think it’s tough for him to have a second best hand that can pay off three streets. With the most likely draw getting there on the turn, I elected to check and bet or call river. His bet was so small that I thought he couldn’t have a straight (though looking at it now 65 would make some sense), so I went for value expecting him to have two-pair or a worse set. I don’t know whether this was optimistic or just unlucky.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 109 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 80 Ante (9 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 (t15528)
MP2 (t18737)
MP3 (t14614)
CO (t8419)
Button (t48075)
SB (t39956)
BB (t21445)
Hero (UTG) (t13379)
UTG+1 (t11620)
Hero’s M: 10.14
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8♠, 8♥
Hero bets t800, 3 folds, MP3 calls t800, 4 folds
Flop: (t2920) 2♣, Q♣, 4♦ (2 players)
Hero bets t1499, MP3 raises to t2998, Hero calls t1499
Turn: (t8916) 8♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks
River: (t8916) 3♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t2400, Hero raises to t9501 (All-In), MP3 calls t7101
Total pot: t27918
Results:
Hero had 8♠, 8♥ (three of a kind, eights).
MP3 had Q♠, Q♥ (three of a kind, Queens).
Outcome: MP3 won t27918
This is a very similar spot where the underbet + turn check tricked me into thinking I must be good. I think the biggest mistake might be flop. I told myself he could have a smaller pocket pair, but really his pre-flop call already set off a bit of an alarm for me, and I think check-calling, bet-folding, or even check-folding might all be better than bet-calling.
As I write his, I’m off to a nice start in the $500 1 rebuy, 1 add-on, which is the event in which I took 3rd last year. And in fact the biggest pot I’ve won was from a thin value shove on the river, though in this case I was dealing with a tilty and not very good Villain with whom I had a bit of history:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 530 Tournament, 60/120 Blinds 15 Ante (9 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 (t14978)
MP3 (t16324)
CO (t7013)
Hero (Button) (t14806)
SB (t4014)
BB (t15810)
UTG (t8061)
UTG+1 (t12722)
MP1 (t6916)
Hero’s M: 47.00
Preflop: Hero is Button with 7♦, 5♦
6 folds, Hero bets t240, SB raises to t735, 1 fold, Hero calls t495
Flop: (t1725) 5♣, A♦, Q♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: (t1725) 8♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
River: (t1725) 7♣ (2 players)
SB bets t941, Hero raises to t14056 (All-In), SB calls t2323 (All-In)
Total pot: t8253
Results:
Hero had 7♦, 5♦ (two pair, sevens and fives).
SB had 9♦, A♠ (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won t8253
At the risk of sounding beginner-ish, could you possibly walk through one of these hands and explain value range and bluff range? is it just based on his action, what could he have to value and bluff? if so, how do you filter out all the different kinds of hands he could have?
also, for that first hand with the tpnd, are you flatting on the flop because of large stack sizes? how small or big must your stack be to raise and get it without remorse? thanks!
Hi, Hans. I don’t have time to run through one of those hands right now, but I’ve written on the subject before. I think you’ll find this article helpful. Clicking on the “Articles” tab will show you quite a few other strategy articles where I discuss concepts like the ones you’re asking about. Hope that helps!
No comment on the Full Tilt situation at all? Are you not permitted by PokerStars to do so?
I’ve run my mouth on Twitter a bit, but right now I don’t feel like I have anythng postworthy to say. If there’s a specific question you have for me or something you’d like me to address, you’re welcome to suggest it. I don’t think we need the Poker Ethicist to convince anyone that paying their Board with players’ money is unethical.
Ah – don’t follow the twitter I guess
You’d be surprised, though, I think – even on 2+2, even now, there are people going “well.. I don’t think they really meant any harm… it was just a mistake.”
But more than that, I guess I’m curious as to your take on whether the continued revelations of cheating and morally questionable activity (from UB/AP to the multi-accounters to datamining/sharing to Girah to the sheer enormity of Fulltilt) is a reflection of something intrinsic to poker, or simply the natural product of human failings and a lack of regulation. In particular, and this is obviously my own bias, I wonder whether you think poker can ever evolve beyond the shady nether-realm it now occupies. Would it be possible to do so by bringing in outside sponsorship to fill prize pools, and having nominal buy-ins (like most other sports/games)? I see a lot of people immediately shoot down this idea, saying that “poker is all about the money” and “haha how stupid it would be to have freeroll tourneys that’s not poker” and similar. But if it’s a game of skill, why should the buy-in matter? Is the fear of losing money an integral part of poker?
More than a little curious too about whether you have any twinges of doubt that shady activity is going on behind the scenes at PokerStars, too. People say no, and point to the fact that they were able to cash out players etc. after black friday as proof, and I do agree it’s commendable that they were able to do so. Still, though, people were just as sure about FullTilt being secure, and at the end of the day, PokerStars is unregulated just like FullTilt was.
Not sure you can talk about that though for obvious reasons.
Well those are my suggestions, or my thoughts anyway. Cheers!
I was just curious, given you had a few days to think them over, looking back do you think you should have folded any of these hands?( I doubt I could and I fold to much!)