Sorry for the lack of posts on here. It’s just that I’ve been playing so much poker that when I’m finished I don’t feel like spending another half-hour at the computer putting together a blog post.
Also I haven’t done anything of great interest in any of the recent WCOOPs. In fact, this is going to be a bit of a whine post. I’ve lost a lot of big pots with set under set and similar “cooler” situations. In most cases, though, I think there’s at least a case to be made that I could have played the hand differently and lost less, so hopefully it will be a little interesting to look at these. I’m actually less likely to make hero folds when I know I’ve been getting coolered a lot recently, because I start to trust my judgment less. I question whether I’m really beat or just seeing monsters under the bed.
Hero (MP1) (t14061)
Hero’s M: 34.72
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A♥, Q♥
2 folds, Hero bets t300, 1 fold, MP3 calls t300, 2 folds, SB calls t240, 1 fold
Flop: (t1245) 6♥, Q♠, 8♥ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t666, MP3 raises to t1741, 1 fold, Hero calls t1075
Turn: (t4727) 4♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t2347, Hero calls t2347
River: (t9421) 4♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t14429 (All-In), Hero calls t9648 (All-In)
Total pot: t28717
Hero had A♥, Q♥ (two pair, Queens and fours).
MP3 had 6♠, 6♣ (full house, sixes over fours).
Outcome: MP3 won t28717
I think the river is very foldable. Yeah, a lot of draws missed, but I have blockers to some of them, plus it’s only the best players who can take a draw and play it exactly like it’s a set, including shoving the river. Less good players, which this guy seemed to be, are more likely to bet bigger on the flop and/or turn with their big draws and smaller on the river. Plus there’s the whole survival/tournament life thing where I ought to fold if I think it’s close. What led me to call was the fact that I think this is literally the very top of my range for playing this way. Sets I probably raise on the flop or turn. I guess I could have AA/KK as well, but I don’t think there’s much difference between those and this hand. Villain is repping a very narrow value range, but I think his bluffing range is also very narrow and maybe even non-existent.
Hero (MP1) (t4295)
Hero’s M: 23.86
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6♠, 6♦
2 folds, Hero bets t120, MP2 calls t120, MP3 calls t120, 3 folds, BB calls t80
Flop: (t500) 4♥, 3♣, 9♦ (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t288, MP2 calls t288, MP3 calls t288, 1 fold
Turn: (t1364) 6♥ (3 players)
Hero bets t888, MP2 calls t888, MP3 raises to t3640, Hero raises to t3887 (All-In), MP2 raises to t4221 (All-In), MP3 calls t581
River: (t13693) K♣ (3 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: t13693
Hero had 6♠, 6♦ (three of a kind, sixes).
MP2 had 9♣, 9♥ (three of a kind, nines).
MP3 had 5♣, 2♣ (straight, six high).
Outcome: MP3 won t13693
Ignore the header here- I had to mess with it to make the converter work. This is from the $300 PL Mix event. I think it’s awfully close at several points. Even betting the flop is questionable, but both of these players were on the loose side, so I think there’s a good chance I win it on the flop or get called by worse.
The turn is trickier. I would fold a set of 4’s, and if I were in MP2’s shoes, I think I could even fold a set of 6’s. I feel like the possibility of lower sets and mayyyyybe even two-pair in their ranges makes it tough to fold 66, but I don’t know. I had a bad feeling about it.
Hero (CO) (t15963)
Hero’s M: 66.51
Preflop: Hero is CO with 5♦, 5♠
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t100, 3 folds, Hero calls t100, 1 fold, SB calls t50, BB checks
Flop: (t490) J♦, 5♥, 9♣ (4 players)
SB bets t280, 2 folds, Hero raises to t888, SB raises to t2488, Hero raises to t15853 (All-In), SB calls t6592 (All-In)
Turn: (t18650) 4♠ (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: (t18650) A♥ (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: t18650
SB had 9♦, 9♥ (three of a kind, nines).
Hero had 5♦, 5♠ (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: SB won t18650
Hero (UTG+1) (t16360)
Hero’s M: 181.78
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K♠, K♣
UTG bets t150, Hero calls t150, MP1 calls t150, 3 folds, Button calls t150, 2 folds
Flop: (t690) K♦, A♠, Q♣ (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets t400, 2 folds, Hero calls t400
Turn: (t1490) 8♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets t1000, Hero calls t1000
River: (t3490) A♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets t2250, Hero calls t2250
Total pot: t7990
Hero mucked K♠, K♣ (full house, Kings over Aces).
MP1 had A♣, Q♦ (full house, Aces over Queens).
Outcome: MP1 won t7990
This one might look weird, but I actually think it’s played the best of any of these. Betting the flop here would just look absurdly strong and probably get me at best one street of value from AJ. I expected to win a big pot regardless if anyone had AQ/QQ (barring this river of course), so it was really a matter of how best to extract from lesser hands. If the flop checks through, there’s a lot of value to be had bombing the turn and river, so that’s what I was hoping to do.
Hero (MP2) (t20818)
Hero’s M: 39.65
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A♣, K♣
3 folds, Hero bets t500, 1 fold, CO calls t500, 1 fold, SB calls t400, 1 fold
Flop: (t1925) 2♣, 9♦, 5♥ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t1234, CO calls t1234, 1 fold
Turn: (t4393) K♥ (2 players)
Hero bets t2666, CO calls t2666
River: (t9725) Q♥ (2 players)
Hero bets t6666, CO calls t6666
Total pot: t23057
Hero had A♣, K♣ (one pair, Kings).
CO had 9♠, 9♣ (three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: CO won t23057
I often forget that it’s harder to get thin value in tournaments than in cash games. In this and the next few hands, that’s arguably my mistake. Here, Villain was a good 2+2 poster who I knew had some hand-reading skill. I had him on a pocket pair, and I thought the board rolled off in a way that he’d expect me to triple barrel. I’m not sure what to do differently, but I don’t love this line.
Hero (MP1) (t11357)
Hero’s M: 28.04
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K♠, K♥
UTG calls t150, UTG+1 calls t150, Hero bets t750, 3 folds, Button calls t750, 2 folds, UTG calls t600, UTG+1 calls t600
Flop: (t3405) K♣, 7♥, 8♠ (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets t1444, 1 fold, UTG calls t1444, 1 fold
Turn: (t6293) J♦ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
River: (t6293) 9♥ (2 players)
UTG bets t1500, Hero raises to t5555, UTG calls t4055
Total pot: t17403
UTG had 10♦, 10♠ (straight, Jack high).
Hero had K♠, K♥ (three of a kind, Kings).
Outcome: UTG won t17403
Given Villain’s likely UTG limp-calling range, I think it’s tough for him to have a second best hand that can pay off three streets. With the most likely draw getting there on the turn, I elected to check and bet or call river. His bet was so small that I thought he couldn’t have a straight (though looking at it now 65 would make some sense), so I went for value expecting him to have two-pair or a worse set. I don’t know whether this was optimistic or just unlucky.
Hero (UTG) (t13379)
Hero’s M: 10.14
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8♠, 8♥
Hero bets t800, 3 folds, MP3 calls t800, 4 folds
Flop: (t2920) 2♣, Q♣, 4♦ (2 players)
Hero bets t1499, MP3 raises to t2998, Hero calls t1499
Turn: (t8916) 8♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks
River: (t8916) 3♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t2400, Hero raises to t9501 (All-In), MP3 calls t7101
Total pot: t27918
Hero had 8♠, 8♥ (three of a kind, eights).
MP3 had Q♠, Q♥ (three of a kind, Queens).
Outcome: MP3 won t27918
This is a very similar spot where the underbet + turn check tricked me into thinking I must be good. I think the biggest mistake might be flop. I told myself he could have a smaller pocket pair, but really his pre-flop call already set off a bit of an alarm for me, and I think check-calling, bet-folding, or even check-folding might all be better than bet-calling.
As I write his, I’m off to a nice start in the $500 1 rebuy, 1 add-on, which is the event in which I took 3rd last year. And in fact the biggest pot I’ve won was from a thin value shove on the river, though in this case I was dealing with a tilty and not very good Villain with whom I had a bit of history:
Hero (Button) (t14806)
Hero’s M: 47.00
Preflop: Hero is Button with 7♦, 5♦
6 folds, Hero bets t240, SB raises to t735, 1 fold, Hero calls t495
Flop: (t1725) 5♣, A♦, Q♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: (t1725) 8♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
River: (t1725) 7♣ (2 players)
SB bets t941, Hero raises to t14056 (All-In), SB calls t2323 (All-In)
Total pot: t8253
Hero had 7♦, 5♦ (two pair, sevens and fives).
SB had 9♦, A♠ (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won t8253