Edit: Hey look, a mistake in a WYP post! Been a while since that happened… At least this was a minor one. My preflop raise was to 150, and I’ve adjusted pot size to reflect that. Sorry for any confusion.
It’s early in the $2500 Borgata Spring Poker Open Main Event, but I think I’ve already established a pretty intimidating image. I won a large pot by 3-betting AA and getting 3 large value bets paid off post-flop, and I’ve played a lot of hands aggressively. So I think the general sense is that I’m going to apply a lot of pressure but I’m going to have it often enough that you can’t just blindly call me down. I’ve also checked and given up a few times after opening preflop, so it’s not like I’m barreling every single time or anything.
Villain seems like a decent amateur but is definitely not a professional. He’s a little too loose pre-flop – not the end of the world when you have position and 600 BBs – and doesn’t seem to give much thought to balance.
Blinds are 25/50, and a few seats are yet to be claimed, so we’re 6-handed when I open Kh Kd UTG+1 to 150. Villain calls on the button, and everyone else folds. He has roughly the 30K starting stack, and I have 36K.
Flop Qc 8s 6s. I bet 250 into 425, he raises to 525, and I call.
Turn 5c. I check, he bets 850 into 1425, and I call.
River Ac. What’s your play and why?
Post your thoughts here, and I’ll be back with my own this weekend – hopefully Friday but no guarantees!
I think it is probably a check/fold.
I don’t think we can check/call or bet for value. We only beat pure bluffs and some spade draws. I don’t think we beat Villain’s river calling range because he has sets, 97, and a decent amount of Ax in his range. That’s more combos, by a good margin, than Qx or other weak made hands. I doubt Villain bluffs too much in this spot because only non-ace spade draws are natural bluff hands.
Can we turn our hand into a bluff? Probably not. I doubt Villain would fold Ax to anything but a huge bet. It is possible that we can rep a backdoor flush with a huge bet but that is very risky and counts on Villain reading the hand in too specific of a way. If we were to bluff I would prefer a check raise so we take advantage of our showdown value when Villain checks behind and because we’ll be able to make a much larger/scarier bet. I would be more inclined to bluff against a better player.
How much did you raise pre? What’s the pot size on the flop before betting?
i tend to believe Villan’s flop raising range is a little polarized. He either has a monster hand (two pair+) or a draw/pure air. I’d expect him to call with one-pair type of hands on the flop. These hands have showdown value and not worth bluffing with.
And i think his turn bet doesn’t not change his range too much, expect that the % of value hands may increased but % of bluff hands decreased i guess just bc there’s a non zero chance he’d give up with draw/air on the turn. Andrew raised preflop, and called a raise on the flop. It seems Andrew showed some interest in the pot and therefore it doesn’t have too much fold equity if he keeps betting his draw. So with a draw he might as well check behind and take a free card.
I think the hands he takes to the river consists a decent amount of value hands that at least beats top pair and a small amount of bluffs (esp. missed flush draws). Now with the A on the river we are losing to AQ.(given that he decided to raise it on the flop and bet the turn for value from his perspective.)
So on the river betting makes little sense bc he’s going to fold weaker hands hand call with better. Betting may also induce a raise that puts us into a very tough spot.
And that leaves only one option: check and evaluate.
Andrew mentioned that Villan doesn’t put too much work on balancing his range. (or betting size if that’s also included.) Then I think if Villan takes the “raise-flop, bet turn when checked to, bet river when checked to” with an unbalanced range, it is usually a strong line. So i’d fold to a decent size river bet.
Given the strong line Villan has taken, check-calling is not an option.
I’m not sure how Villan would respond to a check-raising. But the only few hands Andrew is representing by check-raising is QQ AA 88 and 66. QQ 88 66 are a little less likely bc he may raise them on the turn with possible flush and str8 draws out there. not to mention he also want to build a big pot with hands like that. Because it’s such a small portion in Andrew’s range i doubt a “decent amateur” would believe it.
So i check-fold…
First, a question. What was your open bet size?
You state villain bets 850 into 1125 on the turn. But the flop bets were 525 each, meaning the flop pot was only 75. I’m not trying to pick a nit, I was thinking your flop c-bet was close to pot sized, which I think matters for interpreting his raise.
It appears you bet close to pot on the flop and he clicked it back. Given your read that villain fails to present a balance range, these things add up to strength on the flop in my opinion. This gives him sets mostly and maybe some two pair hands (you did say he was too loose), but fewer draws and Ax. I agree with a lot of what Rant2112 says, I don’t think we can check/call or bet for value. But there may be room to bluff him by repping the flush. Which means we need a large river bet or a check/raise bluff. But the problem with large bet bluffs is they have to succeed more often to be +EV. So I don’t like this option against this villain.
Via hand reading, it appears villain has very little chance of having a marginal hand we beat. Thus we should bluff catch or fold. I would check/fastfold.
You beat: a bluff (T9 and non-nut flush draws)
You lose to: Ax spades for one pair, AQ, two pair, 97, backdoor clubs.
He is not value-betting worse and it’s very unlikely that he calls a river bet with worse. You therefore have two options: turn your hand into a bluff (either betting or c/r), or hope to induce a bluff. The one caveat to this dichotomy is if he holds Qxss and decides to hero call / make a thin value better.
My first instinct is to check/evaluate. The only problem with that is that he checks behind Ax spades for pot control (and you may be able to blow him off of that by potting the river), or if he checks back Qxss (and would have called a bet).
I’ll go out on a limb and say that if you think your opponent is decent and you can get a read on his river bet that this looks like a great spot for a river check-raise. I don’t see many clubs in his range other than T9cc/97cc given his flop raise. You also have the ability to rep a set of aces in the event that he has a lower set (obviously the amount of fold equity you have here is very opponent dependent, but it seems reasonable that you are capable of c/r AA here).
I think it’s somewhat unlikely that you have 2 clubs here, but he gave you a great price on the flop, so you are (from his perspective) probably peeing with AKcc, AJcc, ATcc, KJcc?, JTcc, J9cc, T9cc. I think given the action it makes more sense for you to have the runner-runner flush than he, since he could have either floated you or made a raise that carried some fold equity. I think, given his flop raise, that we can overweight his range to KQ+/Qxss/97/sets, while discounting backdoor draws that make for good floats as well as a hand like QJ/QT.
Overall, my conclusion is a check-evaluate with physical reads and his bet sizing on the river letting you know if you should check/fold or check/raise (I’m not sure I ever check-call here).
looks like an interesting spot for thin value versus a straight-forward loose villain who views you as aggressive. lead for a little over half pot on river and expect “hero” calls from: KQ, QJ, QT (all of which are unlikely to fire a third barrel and never raising).
provided those hands are within his preflop calling range (which based on effective stacks and your description of villain seems reasonable), that’s 30 combos you beat versus 19 combined combos of AQ and Axss you lose to.
given the board (busted FD), your line, and your image, this should look bluffy from villain’s perspective.
finally, villain will raise sets, and presumably never bluff raises worse. so easy bet/fold.
question: curious why you opted to c/c turn rather than c/r, as these sorts of villains so often have Qx in these spots (and putting you on an FD). based on your image and dry board run-out, AQ/KQ/QJ are all very likely calling your c/r which sets you up for one more street of value on river.
The hands you list that villain would “hero call” with are not hands most villains check/raise the flop with. The ace on the river neutralizes any thin value you are trying to get with pocket kings.
1. if villain has the skill to check-raise from the button, he is too good; hero should fold immediately and pray the table breaks.
1a. a lot of amateur players mini-raise cbets with just TP versus players they perceive to be aggressive usually with the faulty logic of “seeing where they’re at”.
2. not sure what you mean by “neutralizes” value. given the board run-out, villain’s line, and hero’s image, the ace is a great river card against Qx hands. villain’s likely thought process: “if he has an ace here, why wouldn’t he check to bluff catch? i’ve shown so much strength. surely, he knows no worse hands will call. he probably has a busted flush draw…” villain concludes, “whatever. if he has it, he has it,” and hero calls with Qx.
more succinctly, Qx is far more likely to call a small lead on a rivered A than to fire a third street.
I doubt QJ is check/raising the flop and even if you think villain would do it with the QK, you have to severely discredit that combo because you hold 2 kings yourself. So therefore the most plausible top pair hand that villain is check/raising on the flop is AQ and has no rivered 2 pair.
villain is on the button. how is he check-raising anything?
The first question is, have you seen him raise anyone else in spots like this? You say he seems like a decent amateur, but what exactly does that mean? Is he aggressive? Or has he only shown aggression with medium-strong hands? Has he shown anything down, and what kind of lines did he take? Is he the type who would raise top pair no kicker + fd? Or would he rather just get to the river by calling and seeing what comes out?
Need more info on villain.
With no additional info besides whats posted, I’d say it’s probably a c/f and wait for more info.
Given that he flatted on the button, has been a little too loose preflop, and you have been reasonably aggressive I would give him a fairly loose range going in to the flop, probably something like in the 25-30% range, but capped at the top.
This means that his flop raising range is likely to include a few Qx combos, say QT+, some suited connector type hands that have hit draws or pair + draw type hands, AsXx type hands, as well as sets or the more unlikely 2 pair. Bluffing is not out of the question, but its hard to say with what frequency he might bluff. Raising a hand like A8s to “protect his hand” isn’t out of the question either, but agian its hard to say with certainty if and how often he would do this.
The turn whiffs most of this except for hands like 97s suited or 65 suited, but I expect him to continue with his aggression a fair bit of the time once you just call and then check to him. The river obviously hits his ace if he was semi bluffing or improves him if he had AQ or A8, but otherwises misses his draws except for the rare odd one like TcJc. Given all that I see about 0 value in betting – the most you can hope for is a crying call from Qx, and he isn’t folding any better hands than yours, so it is definitely a check. Once you check any legitmate hand that bets here will have you beat, he is very likely to be betting a polarized range here, betting for value with 2 pair+ (even weaker aces will get checked back here some as you may have been calling down with AK), but missed draws such as TJs, T9s, or hands like 75 turned into a bluff are the part of his range that we can expect to be ahead… I’m inclined to call a bet that is half pot or less, but folding to a higher bet and would be willing to change my plan based on any reads I can pick up as he acts.
I’m not sure what to make of his min raise on the flop. Could it be a bluff, probably with a good draw (like JsTs) or a hand that he thinks is better than yours given your aggression so far (like AQ or even A8). I’m not really sure what I’m targeting here by value betting, so my plan would be to check and see if I can get some information on his river bet sizing. It’s probably the only way to get value from his wiffs and avoids having to deal with a raise. An alternative is to bet real small to target all his one pair non-A hands and fold to almost all raises (as long as we feel he won’t bluff raise with the optimal frequency).
check raise all in
I am missing it…is there any conceivable reason to check jam 25k into a pot that will have at most 8 or 9. We won’t even have a blocker to the nuts…..
This is the kind of spot I tend to be terrible in for some reason. I just feel mildly annoyed and bored when these spots come up while playing and they tend to elicit yawns when I find them on forums. That’s probably because I have no idea what I am doing here.
I’d just check/fold this. This doesn’t seem like a good card for him to bluff because club draws in our range get there, we have lots of Aces in our range, many of which are two pairs, we also could potentially have straights. Ultimately, decent-ish amateurs really don’t tend to run multi-street bluffs against super aggro guys with a professional air like yourself.
I also can’t see him betting anything worse than KK for value on this river. So I’d be rather annoyed and check-fold. I am interested to see how much my shallow thought process is missing though.
Not a whole lot to add to what’s been posted so far. I am surprised at how many people are discounting busted flush draws that we beat in villain’s range QsXs. I check and evaluate, but lean towards a call.
This may be a simplistic take on the hand (well not as simplistic as Garth’s), but don’t you have a bluff catcher if he barrels three streets?
That means you can only call if you think he is bluffing as you are behind all of his value hands (unless you think he is mistakendly value betting a Q).
I think that represents a very small portion of his range.
If he is over 30 years old, I fold almost every time without some solid read.
If he is under 30 wearing a hoodie with sunglasses and Beats, I may have to look him up :-0!
You win for funniest comment!
Villain’s min-raise line just feels like a cheap path to showdown with Qx, including possibly AQ; but I think KQ, QJ, and QT are quite possible and even more likely.
Bet third to half pot on river, folding to a raise. Second choice is check/fold, because I highly doubt he is value betting just a Q, and he has few bluffs because due to his small flop raise I don’t think he was on a flush draw.
I also think a turn c-r has merit.
FLOP/TURN ANALYSIS
You should deweight the strongest hands because he would have 3-bet QQ+ preflop and he would have raised larger on the flop with his “nut” hands (88/66), and he doesn’t have any real viable two-pair hands (86s only, and he probably would have raised more with it also). Being an amateur, his flop raising range might be unbalanced towards draws and be much less likely to include his “nut hands” like sets.
With the vast number of medium-strength combos he could hold you would expect a call.
So, you’re feeling pretty good with your red Kings on the turn despite the heavy action because his flop raising range is somewhat capped and he may continue to barrel with most of his draws (it’s not the best barreling card, but it might have improved him).
You call the turn because there’s a small chance you’re ahead of his value range, but more importantly, due to his raise size on the flop and the texture of the board, he has a decent amount of semi-bluffs as well.
RIVER
The decision whether to check-call or check-fold I think is close. His range is too strong to consider bluffing by either betting out or check-raising (though I think check-raising would be better than betting out).
If you check the river and he bets, you might assume:
1) the weakest possible hand he would bet for value might be something like the AsJs.
2) he has a decent number of bluffing candidates that he would get to the river with using this line: 5s4s,KsJs, KsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Td9d, Th9h, Ts9s.
3) he would not bet three times thinly with some hands that are “slightly” better than yours (hands like AsTs, As9s, As7s, As4s, As3s, As2s)
4) he would probably check behind with counterfeited top pairs KsQd, KsQh, KsQs, QsJs, QsTs.
Even with those stipulations you might think that his betting range would contain too few hands that beat you since he checks a few of those back and he has a decent number of busted draws, but his value range still contains a good number of combos that are consistent with his raise-bet-bet line: 97s, AQ, AsKs, Tc9c.
So I would check-fold, but check-calling is close and best left, I think, toward what you pick up in person.
i feel like a blocker bet is the play, the pot is just over 3000, so i would bet 1000 into that pot, hes going to value bet higher than that most of the time, and the way the action has gone, hes not going to raise us with only an ace, hes only going to raise us if we are losing, but there are a good amount of hands that will call, even though this is a terrible reason if hes good enough to raise the river there, then he earned that pot and give it to him
Although he made the same play that you did, I’d recommend thinking about it differently. Your logic seems all about minimizing your loss when you’re behind. If you think you’re behind more often than not, I’d just check and fold. If you think you’re ahead, then you should be thinking about how much he’ll call with worse hands, not how much you’ll save when he has better.
Although I made the same play you did, I’d encourage you to think about it differently. Your logic here is all about saving money when you’re beat. If you think you’re behind his range, I’d just check and fold. If you think you’re ahead, then you should size your bet to maximize value from the worse hands that will call, not to save money when you’re beat.