I know it’s a little early for a What’s Your Play?, but I decided to publish my report from this tournament elsewhere so this hand is sort of a stand in before I move on to the next one. Patient listeners and those stuck in the driver’s seat of moving automobiles might also have caught Nate and me discussing a few hands on Podcast Episode 35.
It’s level 9 of a $1500 WSOP event. Hero has been at the table with both Villains for a couple hours and hasn’t shown down anything out of line. Hero (35K) is probably perceived as competent, attacking blinds from late position, etc. but not as especially aggressive.
Villain 1 (55K) is a young Brit, one of the more active players at the table. He raises probably a little more than he should in late position and has made at least one questionably thin call-down, ultimately losing the pot. He’s wearing a Run It Once patch.
Villain 2 (40K) is a white guy in his late 30s, by all appearances an amateur. He’s been a little loose both pre- and post-flop but has actually demonstrated some well-timed aggression. None of those hands went to showdown, so I don’t know for sure that he was bluffing, but he’s bet in enough good spots that it seems like more than a coincidence.
Blinds 300/600/100. Villain 1 opens to 1300 UTG+2, Villain 2 calls in the HJ, and Hero calls with Ac 9c in the BB.
Flop (4900 in pot) Jh Th 5s. Checks around.
Turn (4900 in pot) 7s. Hero bets 3000, both call.
There’s 13,900 in the pot on the river. Which of the following river cards would you barrel and why?
a) Td
b) 2h
c) 2s
d) 2c
e) Ad
Post your thoughts and comments here, and I’ll post my own thoughts as well as the results of the actual hand on Friday.
V1 didn’t cbet on a drawy board indicates he’s range is weighed heavily towards marginal hands with some showdown value. B/c i’d expect him to bet all strong one-pair hands (AA,KJ,etc) and good draws (KQ,AhQh etc..) There’s some outside chance that he’s checking good pair for pot control but i’d say it’s at least discounted. Once he check flop and call the turn, i’d put him on stuff like AT,99 type of hands that he wants to get to showdown.
V2 seems to be an amateur with somewhat appropriate aggression. So i think there’s also a good chance he’s betting his good draws after everyone checks to him. So i also discounted draws in his range.
Monster hands (two pair+) are unlikely for both of them given the action so far bc i’d expect them to raise those hands at some point.
Therefore i think most likely both of them have marginal hands that wants cheap showdown and probably couldn’t call a good size river bet.
That said we also need to pay attention to want we are representing bc i’d give at least V1, if not both, credit for being capable of hand reading. I don’t like betting a blanked river bc it looks like a busted draw. I’d bet an Ad river for value (i have no idea what to do if we got raised 🙂 ) and a 2h river to rep a flush…
Agree with most of your analysis but you haven’t talked about what either of them would do with the kind of hand he’s most likely to have on the flop: nothing! If you (correctly, IMO) exclude good draws and monster hands, then you’re left with either air or marginal showdown value, and there’s a lot more of the former than the latter.
You’re right. I overlooked the possiblity that both of them chk the flop just to give up. I guess I should’ve said the fact that both of them chked the flop and called the turn (which is significant) gave away that they have some marginal hand that they want to take to show down…
I like the 10d.I am representing middle pair ott. Brit boy checks huge or shit on this flop and amateur if he has shown well timed agression would try to take down this pot with his draws ott. I am putting amateur a probable low to middle pair and brit boy on maybe a better ace assuming a set here is raising the turn. That is why i like the 10. This is my thinking when I usually head for the door.
Why do you say you’re representing exactly middle pair on the turn? I’d probably be betting top pair, middle pair, two-pair, straights, sets, and flush draws in addition to air balls.
This is my first time posting so here it goes. I would look to barrel A)B)
Vill#1 EP 2x should be 55+ KJs+ and some air after chkn JhTh5s flop then calling a sizable bet on the 7s turn i would narrow his range down to 88/99/and AKs/AQs I think he would Cbet flop with all made pairs + as well as flush draw/and air.
Vill#2 I think can only have 4 Tens in his range with T9s/h TQs/h and call turn although he would most likely bet the Hart draw with pos. on flop. Also being a loose post flop player i would put AK/AQ/Ax spades/KQ/k9s/Q9s
Hero can represent flopped pairs and draws much better then others because of his EP and solid image chkn a flush draw or a T/J on the flop i think would be fairly standard in this spot for hero. After both players chk flop hero would often lead out at this point with any of those hands.
E) i think would be an awful card as it completes KQ/AK/AQ/AT and maybe even A5/A7)
D) I think if we bet the brick we are reppn 2 pair+ or 89 and that maybe enuff for a hero call from vills.
As with Jason R, my first post in ‘What’s your Play…’ Hope it makes some sense….
I like barrelling (b), 2h.
Pre-flop
• Villain 1 (Active) – EP raise, with close to 100bb. I put his range on a lot of suited broadways, Ax suited, possibly 9-10 suited and small / mid pockets.
• Villain 2 (A little loose) – Late position call. I think his range is wider calling pre-flop raise in position. In addition to above, I put mid suited connectors in his range.
• Hero – BB call. Getting a good price to call; Hero’s range is quite wide in this spot.
Flop
Flop having checked around, I feel Villain 1 is looking at a straight draw be it gut shot or open ended, KQ (possibly AK or AQ however I don’t think these 2 hands are likely) and small / mid pockets and possibly made middle pair with K10 – Villain 2 I am still thinking more Ax suited and mid suited connectors.
Turn – 7s
• I think has bricked Villain 1, I think KQ is still in is his range plus a lot of middle pair hands as he is quite deep and I think he would call Hero’s bet.
• Villain 2’s call I am a little more concerned about, I think the 7s has improved his hand significantly, I think he is playing a draw, however this is more weighted towards the Spade Flush. I think if Hero had not bet out on the turn, Villain 2 definitely would have.
River – If 2h….
I don’t think either Villain 1 or 2 are happy with their hands if the 2h was to come based upon the ranges I have put them on and action to date. I think barrelling 2h strengthens Hero’s range to heart flush or even holding, 8-9 for the made straight on the turn.
I think barrelling this river will get fold’s from Villain 1 and 2 a lot of the time.
Hero’s turn bet was 60% of pot approx. I would at least match this with an 8500 bet if not close to 9000 – Making it tougher for Villain 1 to call with Middle Pair.
I think if there was a call it might come from Villain 1 with middle pair or even 88. I think he might hold the best hand in this spot, however based upon fact he has already lost a thin call-down, he will not call based upon the range Hero’s Turn and River bets represent.
Will be interested to know how the hand actually plays out… Clearly a 2 does come on the river…
I like the question format. Here’s my novice input:
A) Td is a good card to barrel. I think Hero has more tens than either villain, and the flop check, turn lead is consistent with Hero holding a ten. On this final board, hero likely needs to bet to win, as villains have lots of higher aces in their ranges.
B) C) and D) Any duece seems insignificant until you consider the suit. Again, I think suited connectors are a healthy portion of Hero’s range, so he can represent a flush if it hits. But I geuinely don’t know if he could rep both hearts and spades. I’m concerned some villains will discount hearts as Hero did not lead into the flop (frankly this is just my inexperience and it may be completely wrong). So, I’m checking 2h and 2s simply due to inexperience and I hope to learn from others in this post. I say Hero should barrel a 2c, again repping the Ten (or some smaller pairs).
E) Ad is a tough decision. I think lots of folks would check here, and many would check/call. Calling is not a compromise, so it comes down to whether we think either villain would bluff the river. Based on Hero’s read, Villain 1 is likely to make a thin call down, so we should barell. Villain 2 has shown some late agression that might be bluffs, so we’d like to check/call to pick those off. Given that I think villains have lots of Ax which beat Hero, it is probably best to barrel and then fold to a raise.
Another attempt from a novice:
Before getting to the river cards, I will go through my analysis of the hand through the turn:
In a 3-way pot, I would not be surprised if V1 is checking this flop often. It is wet enough that it seems like a C-bet bluff is unlikely to get both opponents to fold, so it seems like it might be a good candidate to check and give up if V1 missed completely. Also, this flop makes a lot of marginal hands that might want to check for pot control. I would expect a c-bet with big hands (J’s, overpairs or better) and big draws (flush draw, overcards) often. Also of note is that many heart draws are either nut-flush draws or combo draws (hands like KQ, KJ, 87, 76, 56, etc etc), so for these reasons I would heavily discount the possibility that V1 has a heart draw. Overall I think his range is weak after the flop check, with lots of marginal hands and air in his range and few big hands/big draws. For V2, it seems like the flop looks like a good bluffing spot, as in a multiway pot, 2 checks in front seem more likely to be genuine weakness. Also with a wet board we would expect a bet from a strong hand to charge draws. So I would say V2’s range is also on the weak side, although more skewed towards marginal hands and less towards total air than V1.
With V1 calling the turn, I think we can eliminate all air hands from his range. Floating with another player behind on the turns seems extremely unlikely. He also isn’t getting the right price to call with a naked flush or straight draw here, so I would expect draws to either fold or raise. Therefore, I think his range skews very strongly towards marginal hands hoping to reach showdown cheaply (weak J’s, Ts, pocket pairs, perhaps some big Aces).
With the overcall by V2, I think we can heavily discount big hands and total air as well. However, we have to include more draws, both because this amateur player is more likely than the aggressive pro-ish player to flat-call the turn with a draw, and because with the first call he is now getting the right price to flat-call. I would still expect strong draws to sometimes raise here trying to take down the pot since it is a good bluffing spot, so I am willing to somewhat discount draws from V2’s range but not as much as V1. So we end up with another range skewed towards marginal hands but with some draws.
Finally, what does hero’s hand look like to our opponents? We are in a good spot here because our range is much much wider than either V. We can have monsters (checking flop planning to check-raise c-bets), draws (checking strong draws planning to check-raise or checking any draw hoping for a free card), marginal hands checking for pot control, or air checking to give up. Our turn bet could also be any of these hands, monsters that failed to check-raise now betting for value, draws now betting as bluffs, marginal hands now taking a stab to get some value from V’s draws, or air also attempting to bluff. I think that there are so many draws on the board, that Vs might think that draws make up a good portion of our range but they cannot heavily discount other possibilities either.
Now (finally!) to the actual question:
A) I don’t love barreling a T here as it seems to fall quite strongly into Vs’ combined range. Both hands are skewed towards marginal hands, so it seems like there are a decent number of Ts in there (although plenty of lower pairs as well). Also, a T is certainly in Hero’s range, but as mentioned before, I think it makes up a small part of our overall range, so it seems like a bet on this card might induce some hero-calls especially from V1 hoping to pick off busted draws.
B & C) I think draws are a much bigger part of our range than Vs ranges, so I like barreling these cards. I would bet 8-9K targeting folds from any T or worse pair, and hoping for some weak J’s to fold as well. If called, I would expect V1 to be making a hero-call or V2 to show up with our repped flush.
D) A blank 2 is an interesting spot. I still put both Vs on marginal hands that could fold to a strong bet. However, with both calling the turn (with likely marginal made hands), I would worry that at least one of these V’s will call a river bet hoping to pick off a busted draw. I would check (but this might be too weak.
E) I really don’t know what to do on the A river. On the one hand, I would expect I am good a good amount of the time, although there are certainly some AT’s and A7’s in their combined range. Also there are some bigger Aces i suppose but again I would expect especially V1 to have either bet the flop, or raised or folded the turn with hands like AJ or AQ. I think I would bet small hoping to extract value from those marginal hands we expect them to have often, like Ts and smaller pocket pairs. I would fold to a sizable raise.
sorry KJ in first paragraph should be AK and AJ in last should be AK.
From micro player:
I would barrel all expect d. Neither V1 nor V2 would play top pair, overpair or set this way on drawy board like this. They would also probably stab on flop with good draws like KQ/AK/AQ of hearts so we shouldn’t be worried about flushes when 2h hits the river. There are possibilities for backdoor flushes when 2s pops up (AK,AQ,KQ,AT & T9(suited)) but there are more combos of those non-suited and wrong-suited. A ten is quite a safe card as the V1 shouldn’t have many tens in his opening range and V2 wouldn’t call with just middle pair against two opponents. An Ace basically either completes KQ or gives them top pair with better kicker, so don’t barrel it.
Overall we would be representing at least pair of jacks and the Villains shouldn’t have better holdings very often. We could also have two pairs or even a set or better. Our A-high might often be enough against draws and the bet would be unnecessary but sometimes one of them has a hand like AQ which would also fold against another barrel.
I’m obviously going to barrel E. I’ll play it for value as I’m fairly certain I am the best hand and am bound to get called down by worse, and I’m willing to stack this one off.
B, C and D are all bricks to me except B as I’m fairly certain one of these players is looking for a heart here. I can’t put a backdoor in any of their ranges so I’m not worried about C. I would play B and C like I would E, assume it would shut down any further action, but if I get a reraise from either it is probably a bet/fold situation.
A is trickier as now things come into his range that I am absolutely crushed by. But I see the merit in bet/folding all of these, really. Why would we shut down our aggression here when we could easily place a thinner value bet on all but E and lay down our hand if we get played back at? With a thin value bet at around 6.5K, you’d be risking about 10K to win close to 20K, and if you are reraised, you’re still +30BB.
Thanks for the post, Jeff. Not necessarily disagreeing, just not clear on your logic: why do you think your opponents are more likely to have hearts than clubs?
I think we are repping a one pair hand like QJ or T9. I think villains would expect us to bet JT or 55 on the flop, raise JJ or TT pre, and check the turn with our pure straight and flush draws.
Villains are repping flush and straight draws and one pair hands themselves, although I think the former is more likely as one of them might bet a J or T on the flop themselves.
a) Yes – this hits our perceived range squarely
b and c) This hits their range squarely, so I lean towards no. But I think I am more worried about the 2S then the 2h, as it seems more likely
that a flush draw on the flop would be bet some of the time. I think this is a case for randomization, but I’m not sure what the % should be, maybe barrel 25% of the time
(do you have your Harrington watch time prepared?)
d) Yes – this is a blank so of course I barrel
e) Ad – This is an interesting card because the only draw it helps is KQ. If they have flush/straight draws outside of KQ then we’re ahead and
we either want to check it down or bet for value (if we think it’s highly likely one of them has a one pair flush drawn like 6h5h). I think it’s more likely
they have pure straight/flush draws, so that would call for checking to try to get them to bluff. But what if one of them has a better A? Then we could
try to bet big as a bluff. I think straight/flush draws w/o A are more likely, so I check and call based on sizing and any other tells.
Will read other responses later … quick hitter.
What does betting the 7 mean? Could mean we have a 10, have a 7, hit an OESD, sweetening the pot for a flush draw or a weak J that we didn’t want to bet on the Flop.
If we were IP I think we could bet a 10, but not OOP.
Same goes for 2h, too easy to get c/r here even though we could take it down. Most flush draws would just call our Turn bet so we don’t know if one is out there.
I think betting any of the other 3 cards would be fine. You might get called down if they put you on a missed flush draw. The A gives you top pair, but I don’t think you get any callers except Ah or hands that beat you since it looks like you could be on a flush draw ‘betting’ the 7.
I think I would bet the off-suit 2s for sure, but maybe c/c the Ace so we don’t scare off and weak Jx or Tx hands that think we missed the flush. This goes against ‘doing our own betting’ but maybe the only way to get value on the River the way the hand was played and the cards came out. GL
Missed the 2nd flush draw being out there. Either player could have backdoor spades since Hero bet it for them. I dont think V1 has hearts as he probably would bet Flop once Hero checks, unless they are small hearts. V2 also ‘should’ bet hearts on Flop with 2 checks in front since he may take it down right there or build a pot for when the flush hits … again, unless they are small hearts IMO.
Still think betting the 10 OOP is risky and 50/50 on betting the Ace.
I would be more inclined to bet the spade flush hitting since Hero bet the Turn when the 2nd spade came out as well.
Betting anything OOP is opening us up to a c/r, but these 2 opponents dont seem all that interested in the pot and Hero really hasn’t given them any reason not to believe that his bets arent legit. We have already donk bet the Turn, so betting the River makes almost any of these River cards compelte a story we are trying to sell. I would be fairly aggressive with any bet … 75% of pot. GL
Would think that villain 2 would 3 bet pre flop with position any AK/AQ combos, so for ranging him post flop I would certainly include lower Ax/Kx combos, most probably suited. Likewise most decent suited and 1-2 gappers and Pocket Pairs, 22-TT. JJ-QQ again I think would/should be 3 betting pre flop to see what Villain 1 does, plus there are still 4 others still to act behind him including Hero.
Villain 1 wearing the patch and has been active, (although mainly in late position) opens UTG+2 but doesn’t necessarily have to have anything too great to be doing this.
Any good player flopping a set here is going to check that flop.
Think Villain 1 would start building a pot on that flop with any big combo draws happy to get it all in if 3 bet, so I would now reduce the chances of him having any AK/AQ combos. Think he would bet most top pairs here, especially AJ/Jx to protect his hand, unless with the intention of check raising, which I’d be less inclined for him to do, but still have his range as being wide.
Hero leading the turn 7s – Board now has 2 flush draws. Any villain with 89o or a set would now check raise here almost 100% of the time. 8h9h and 8s9s would be happy to get it in here too although small chance of checking
So…………….
a)Td
For:
Our story makes sense
We bet the turn to see where our Tx stood, (hopefully repping AT)
2 busted flush draws. Every chance it is going to be checked down so we are value betting our trips especially to put pressure on any Jx
Against:
Think we can safely discard AhTh from Villain 1 as I’m sure he would’ve started building on that flop, don’t think he would be raising ATo UTG+2, however all other ATs and most Tx/Ts combos fit the bill.
Villain 2 could have AhTh and all of Villain 1’s range also.
b) 2h
For:
I don’t have any great reasoning to think that barreling here would be profitable enough in the long term, especially against 2 Villians.
Against:
Hits either Villain’s range hard
c} 2s
For:
Great card for repping nut flush, especially As8s/As9s
We bet the turn with nut flush and gutshotter.
No resistance shown to us on the turn, only call, call.
Our story makes sense.
Against:
Hits either Villain’s range hard
d} 2c
For:
2 possible busted flush draws
We bet the turn, so we would/could appear to have a piece of it
Unlikely that Ace high is good, should we get to showdown for free.
Barreling gives us our only realistic chance of winning the pot
Against:
Still 2 callers on the turn.
Unlikely, but not impossible for it to be 2 busted flushes.
Going to have to bet about 75-100% of pot to try and shake off Jx
Could get re-raised and have to fold.
e} Ad
For:
Don’t really like barreling. O.k we could be repping KQ, but I just think that with 2 Villains still in the hand KQ is easily in both their ranges along with other dominating Aces.
Only pros for barreling are:
As a blocker bet, very doubtful as to wether it would even get to showdown, let alone be successful.
To sell broadway and get better hands to fold.
Against:
Hits either Villain’s range hard
Thanks for the great question.
Carl
I would only barrel the 2h.
The other two deuces are functionally equivalent. Nothing has really changed about the board, and if both of them were glad to call you down on this board, it’s rather unlikely they will both fold, especially given that one is prone to making thin call downs and there aren’t too many strong hands in our range at this point.
The Ace is a bad card to barrel because it hits their range hard and gives us show-down value, so we can’t really expect calls from much worse if we barrel the ace.
The 10 makes sense for us to “represent” but a Ten is pretty likely to be in their ranges at this point as they are extremely likely to have bet the flop with a Jack or better and a Ten is most likely as the kind of hand to have enough value to call us on the turn.
As for the 2h; players of this kind are very likely to bet the flop if they have a flush draw, so it misses their range, hits our perceived range pretty hard and I don’t think they would get too stubborn with second pair if the flush completes on the river.
Edit: I read the board wrong; I didn’t realize 2s also made a flush. I’d barrel that too.