I’ve been playing some small-stakes ZOOM alongside my tournaments whenever I’ve got spare screen space, and this is the most interesting spot I’ve encountered in any of my games in my first two days playing. I had to reformat my database, so I didn’t have a HUD running while I was playing, and I didn’t have any history with or reads on these guys. The one overall read I have about the game is that most of the regs are pretty nitty, although there a reasonable number of random loose players. I didn’t have enough experience, when this hand came up, to know who was who:
PokerStars – $1 NL FAST (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BTN: 103.43 BB
Hero (SB): 112.01 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 90.3 BB
CO: 131.74 BB
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Jd Js
fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, BTN raises to 6.5 BB, Hero raises to 18 BB, fold, CO calls 16 BB, BTN calls 11.5 BB
Flop : (55 BB, 3 players) 5c 7c 3d
Hero bets 26 BB, CO calls 26 BB, BTN raises to 85.43 BB and is all-in, Hero ?
Post your thoughts and comments here, and I’ll be back with my own on Friday. Happy WCOOPing!
Seems like a close fold to me. In a game of nitty regs, you can expect to see QQ-AA more often than AKcc/AQcc here, and even the latter has pretty good equity against JJ. Not having the Jc in your hand also changes your equity here some non-insignificant percent, though I’m not good enough at math to give an exact number. It seems like when you’re behind you have 2 outs and when you’re ahead you have to dodge a ton of them. Not a fan of putting in another 60 Biebers when I’m slightly ahead or far behind. And it isn’t that I’m too worried about CO (he should have raised a fair amount of the time he has us beat), but CO’s call of our strong c-bet should make BTN a little less likely to be getting out of line vs both opponents. All signs point to a laydown.
I forgot to mention that BTN flatting our 4-bet pre is why it’s “close” and not a slam-dunk, since he should be 5-betting PF fairly often with the range of hands that beat us on this flop, but I’m still inclined to muck here.
While we can often be in bad shape, we don’t need great odds to call here considering the pot. If CO folds, we need 25%, and if CO calls, we need 20%. Against AcKc we’re 44% to win so way more than enough, but of course that’s a small part of BTN’s range.
It doesn’t make any sense for BTN to shove here without some equity of some kind, so we can discount pure bluffs. I think it’s also likely that he would have 5bet pre with AA and at least sometimes KK and QQ, leaving few overpairs in his range.
Which leaves:
– sets (9 combos) – terrible shape at ~8%
– AcXc with X>? – Let’s say 9 combos. Good shape averaging around 45%
– Some other draw/combo draw – not too many of those that he wouldn’t fold pre, ie is her really calling pre with 4c3c or 4x6x? Is he really shoving with 8c7x?
– Occasional overpair (terrible shape at 8%)
So it’s very close and depends on how you weight AcXc vs sets imo.
Fold. Should have check shoved lol. =P
You made it too big preflop for CO to set mine and he just called the flop bet, so I think he has something like 99,TT (maybe QQ? not sure) or some type of marginal draw (probably not a set or a nutted draw since he didnt raise the flop). He also capped his range pre by not putting in a raise after a 3bet and a cold 4bet. I would expect KK+ to try and get it in pre with that much action. His range seems the weakest to me.
BTN could set mine preflop because he only needs to put in 11.5 and can reasonably expect a return of 115 especially if CO comes along as well. Im not sure how likely people are to get AKs in pre this deep with this much action so I assume he could have flatted that and some other suited broadway of clubs as well. I dont think he has KK+ because he is capped for the same reasons as CO is pre. He is more likely than CO to have QQ though.
IMO, BTN’s range consists of 13 combos that have you crushed (3 sets and QQ), 8 combos that you have 40-60% equity against (AJs+, KJs+, QTs+, JTs+ of clubs), and I guess he could occasionally have some hands like 99-TT, 64s, two pairs, or small combo draws but I think this is not likely given the action.
I think you need like 25% to call given the pot odds. You have this much if BTN has all the club draws. However, I think I would fold because it looks like CO has broadway clubs which strengths BTN’s range since they aren’t both likely to have broadway clubs. CO’s flat strengths BTN range which means you dont have the 25% equity you would have had if BTN was likely to have all the clubs draws that CO is likely to have. (Actually with them being nitty, we cant even be sure BTN is flatting some of the weakest club draws pre). If you had the J of clubs, that would eliminate even more of them and it’d be a snap fold. I think it’s a fold after thinking about it which I am not yet able to do in game.
I think Carlos did an excellent range analysis. My intuitive judgement based on this action is that JJ is a fold, while QQ is probably a call. That is because QQ-TT are a very significant portion of the plausible overpairs that fit this preflop action, and so my first thought was that your JJ is up against someone’s QQ here quite often.
Do people overcall with suited connectors/gappers OTB in SS ZOOM here at least sometimes? I’m not an internet player anymore, but in LLSNL you see this a bit. I know know it’s not 20:1, blah blah blah, but some villains talk themselves into it by (1) including both stacks as potential winnings (rightfully or wrongfully), and (2) trying to “hide” a wide button three-betting range by being sticky.
Yeah, I think suited connectors are plausible. The 20:1 thing isn’t that relevant, because he’s getting good immediate pot odds and he doesn’t need to outflop an overpair, he just needs to flop enough equity to continue in a large pot. It’s not a pure implied odds call.
I like Carlos’ take on it, and I fold also. Post flop, I wonder if we are proposing a fold, should we even bet? I mean, I see Andrew bet, and know he is better than I am, so think I should. But when we bet so big, then fold, perhaps we should either revisit the bet, or at least the size? (yes, I think we have to bet)
Would a wiff really bluff just because we bet 20 rather than 26 postflop? So a C bet that is smaller would be my first question.
I would have seriously thought about flatting pre flop though, but it is because I am inexperienced with 3/4/5 bet situations. I hate situations where I go first. JJ is a strong hand, but it seems we were expecting a fold from at least perhaps both. When that does not happen, it seems our stack is in jeapordy.
OOP, unclear of ranges, I flat JJ here more often than not.
weak probably.
but i still fold as played, just like carlos said, and why.
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Very good questions/comments. I’ll try to address what I can without giving away too many of my own thoughts:
1. If you’re unclear of ranges pre-flop, that’s going to remain true whether or not you 4B. The problem with flatting is that it very clearly defines your own hand without putting any more money into the pot. So you more or less tell your opponents what you have while letting them see the flop in position for no further investment (on BN’s part, anyway). Assuming you believe you are a head of BN’s range, I think it’s better to 3B and let him either fold or call with worse. In a nitty game like I described, I’d be comfortable folding to a 5B.
That said, against opponents with stronger 3B ranges who lack the hand reading and discipline to fold overpairs, cold calling here makes a lot more sense. So you may well be right to do so in your usual games.
2. We don’t know when we bet the flop that we will get action from both players. If you’re confident about the right play in the far more likely case where just one opponent continues, that’s reason to bet. If you aren’t, then checking makes sense (though you still need a plan).
Seems like CO has JJ+, or MAYBE TT here 90%+ of the time.
BTN has big clubs, KK, or AA.
Snap fold IMO.
CO’s cold 4B calling range pre is going to be very, very strong.
BTN’s play looks so much like AcKc that I think it makes up a big portion of his range. He can play KK or AA this way because he might expect you to c-bet worse more often than you’d call his 5B pre.
Very interesting spot. I agree with others. Button doesn’t have kk/aa. Co’s range doesn’t seem very strong on the flop. I think button could easily have a sc, some kind of combo draw and this was the exact cc kind of flop he’s looking for. Ur odds r too good to get away. I think we need to get it in and hope the co folds.
I like how it was played. Easier with reads but otherwise this seems standard. This is also the flop and play u were looking for.
Basically if ur going to 4b jj, then u can’t fold on a 2 suit 7hi flop. Ur spr becomes too low for anything else.
well, I finally got to Pokerstrategy and tried to find some ranges.
First some thoughts about my assumptions…
1. Anyone ‘could’ have AA, but probably not. Nitty guys frequently want to get it in when they are positive they are good (with AA that would always be PF) and even looser players know the value of 5betting vs a 4bet figuring there is less fold equity. But, with stack sizes being what they are, and knowing the CO could be trying to get the BTN to call, I see a ‘non-zero’ chance one of the opps has AA. That said, i am discounting it in my range.
2. KK is however a very real possibility. Many nits/LAPs would be uncomfortable with KK in a 4 bet pot, and would be scared of AA. So, they might very well wait and see the flop. Additionally, I agree that SC may be a factor, but not sure whether it matters whether it is 76s T9s, and the chance they fold discounts some, so I did not put in all of them.
I also discounted sets. I figure the sets that hit a 753 flop are discounted by the small pairs that would fold to either the first or second round of raises pre flop. I may not be explaining this well, but I figure, 22 may be stealing, as might 33 and they seem to cancel each other out to the crushed/crusher hands.
So, my range for the CO is wider, and has a few SC, so 88+,AsKs,AsQs,KsQs,AdKs,AhKs,AsKd,AsKh,AsKc,AcKs
the BTN I gave a tighter range assuming that he ‘might’ have KK, QQ-TT seems more likely as well as fewer SC hands. I again discount sets by taking out the low PP that might have been in a calling range.
KK-TT,AsKs,AsQs,KsQs,AKo
Also, I am showing strong ranges here, but this is the call/raise range of AB’s opps.
vs this range, which I have ‘no hope’ of arriving at over the table, seems like we are basically flipping. Surprisingly, even if CO folds, our equity does not go up much.
probably because I am assuming stronger hands in their range. If we check, do htey bluff?
To me, that is the more profitable question: “Would opps bet out weaker hands more often than they would call with?”
Think the answer is absolutely ‘yes’ since the pot is large. So, if I am b/c here, I am more willing to x/r All In.
If I am willing to put my stack in, it would be preferably vs their bluff AND their value range as opposed to just their value range.
So, I am torn….
Game theory, (meaning that Andrew bets, and so that is more likely to be correct) says money goes in better on the flop than later, but my instincts would be “few hands worse are calling and there is almost NO fold equity once we bet. If BTN has AKs we are 55-45 or so, so even then, we are not liking it.
So, xr for me after looking at it.
but real life, I probably b/f (smaller though say 20bb)
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