Dave Thornton is one of the principals at SkillInGames and OneBillionHands, a recently-launched site with access to, well, roughly one billion hands’ worth of anonymized hole card data from real money online poker games. We talk about where these hands came from (Dave asked us to clarify that, contrary to what he may have inadvertently implied during the interview, most of the hands did not come from the partner at the data consultancy where he used to work) and the many interesting questions that can be studied with them. One early application is a more complete method of quantifying luck than has previously been available to poker players. We also discuss Mark Newhouse’s fold to Anton Morganstern’s river check-raise deep in the WSOP main event.
You can follow Dave on Twitter @dave_j_thornton and one of his partners, Jay Greenspan, @mizdflop. If you have suggestions for problems you’d like to see them research, please leave them here or email us.
The neural network project that Andrew mentioned is PokerSnowie.
0:30 – Hello and welcome
4:14 – Mailbag: What exactly is an angle shot?
16:21 – Strategy: A big hand and a big draw
37:08 – Interview: Dave Thornton
$300 NLHE tournament. Blinds 100/200, Hero has 13K, Villain has 11K.
Villain raises to 450 UTG, 5 calls, Hero calls in the BB with Ac TC. I flat.
3150 in pot, flop is Ad 6c 4c. Hero checks, Villian bets 450, folds to button who calls. Hero raises to 2000, Villain calls, button folds.
7550 in pot, 8500 in effective stacks. Turn is 10. Hero bets ~3800. Villian tanks for a long time and calls.
River is off suit 7. Hero moves all in.
Edited to clarify that OneBillionHands’ hand histories are anonymized.