Thanks to everyone who commented on my first WCOOP review hand. Among other things, it helps me realize how the hand looks to people who don’t already know the results (though some of you probably assumed them from the way, and indeed the fact, that I posed the question). Anyway, I called the turn, I made my flush on the river, and I checked and paid off another big bet from Queens Full.
3 thoughts on “Fold the Turn? Results”
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One thing worth noting in the above post might have been that simply because you called a small turn bet doesn’t mean you have to call a big river bet even when you make your flush.
The river information in itself is interesting, but it could also be conditioned on the turn information to make an exploitative play, even though our first seven decisions or so, were GTO-ish. The conditional probability that he would, bet the turn small on a paired board, to bomb a river that completed a flush, with a hand that can’t beat aces, seems unlikely unless he has exactly AsAx. But you have that card.
Its a spot where I almost feel like we don’t find anything meaningful out until the river. On the turn, what does this small turn bet mean? We have inklings that it could mean a few things, but we aren’t really sure, and like I was saying before, we can’t be sure, given our information.
But new information has come to light! And its not just a single piece, it colours the previous pieces, its like we’ve been given 2 new pieces of information, if river bet is A and turn bet is B, we now have pieces A,B, and AB. Before the river we just had B.
(notice how biased this argument is, as it maintains my preferred turn line as correct, but doesn’t pay off queens full)
but Gareth if river isnt a jam and he bets small, isnt this viable for overpairs? especially since its hard for us to have a heap flush draws beyond AKss but get to the flop with alot of pairs. Also, if we are folding that river to any bet, then we must be c/f on K/A rivers also, since anything worse wont bet those rivers either, so essentially we are calling turn to fold to all river bets, but because we are OOP we can never thin value bet or bluff ourselves,
when he bets small on the turn I think there are 3 possibilities, he has air, Overpair/Top Pair, or Top Set.
on a club river
when he bets less than a jam on the river, air is still possible but unlikely, (but i think that bayes wise its more likely that he bets his air on river if he bet turn with it. ie its more likely he bets then gives up rather than doubles then gives up)
so if he has AA/KK its possible he may value bet thinly for a less than all in bet, but probably less likely he would on other run outs
He bets QQ for less than pot, but this is also discounted given its likely to jam for maximum value with SPR of 1. so it also has to be discounted.
so his range consists of discounted Air, discounted Overpairs, and discounted Nuts. I would argue that the reduction of Air doesnt outweigh the reduction of overpairs and reduction of nuts, so if we had sufficient equity/reason to call turn, its correct to call river.
On non A/K/c rivers, he checks back, rarely it will be with air and we will win the pot, but we still have virtually no equity imo
On K rivers, he can still value bet AA/KK/QQ and even AK/ if he gets there with it, We arent enthused about calling on it either, so we c/f
On A rivers, he will be checking back, KK and betting AA/QQ in which case we arent enthused about calling either, so if we c/f here aswell .
So if we are c/f on all rivers that we connect with, and hoping he gives up his bluffs, I would argue that we arent getting sufficient implied odds if we are also folding some strong hands to prevent reverse implied odds.
So although i dislike the general logic of calling rivers because we called turn, I would argue that in this case villain probably doesnt have enough bluffs to prevent us from making an ok fold on the turn.
being OOP really sucks!
Late with the post, but I really thought he had QQ when he bet so small on the turn when I first read the hand.
I guess I play with too many live Nit Rocks that always have it in that spot:-).
With trips or worse, they always bet more to protect their hands as they are deathly afraid of the suck out. I realize 6-max online tournament is vastly different than live full ring cash games with old guys.
Why didn’t you bet fold the river rather than check call?
Did you expect him to bluff or value bet worse if you checked?