Bummer

I made Day 2 of the $200 Sunday Warm-Up WCOOP, which, with only 109 of 8000+ entrants making it even that far, was an achievement in its own right. My hopes weren’t especially up, as I was one of the shorter stacks with about 16 big blinds to start the day, barely half the average. I had some ups and downs in the first half hour, doubling up with Aces, losing a flip with AK to QQ, then doubling up again with Aces. Then there was this hand, which seemed like a straight-forward shove at the time but, after crunching the numbers, looks like it was a mistake:

PokerStars – $200+$15|15000/30000 Ante 3750 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 32.33 BB (VPIP: 35.14, PFR: 27.78, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 37)
MP+1: 10.99 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 30)
CO: 7.48 BB (VPIP: 8.11, PFR: 5.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
BTN: 63.88 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 10)
SB: 62.6 BB (VPIP: 19.48, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 77)
Hero (BB): 42.1 BB
UTG: 19.66 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG+1: 8.58 BB (VPIP: 21.62, PFR: 10.81, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 37)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has Kh Qh
fold, UTG+1 raises to 8.46 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 7.96 BB, Hero raises to 41.97 BB and is all-in, SB calls 33.52 BB

Flop : (93.4 BB, 3 players) 2d 4s Ks

Turn : (93.4 BB, 3 players) Kd

River : (93.4 BB, 3 players) 7c

SB shows Ac Kc (Three of a Kind, Kings)
Main Pot [26.37 BB]: (Pre 35%, Flop 78%, Turn 81%)
Side Pot [67.03 BB]: (Pre 71%, Flop 87%, Turn 86%)

Hero shows Kh Qh (Three of a Kind, Kings)
Main Pot [26.37 BB]: (Pre 24%, Flop 13%, Turn 14%)
Side Pot [67.03 BB]: (Pre 29%, Flop 13%, Turn 14%)

UTG+1 shows 9c 9d (Two Pair, Kings and Nines)
Main Pot [26.37 BB]: (Pre 41%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)

SB wins 93.4 BB

Basically a short stack shoves in early position for about 8 BBs, the SB calls, and I’m in the BB with KQs. The SB has me covered. My in-game thinking was that there’s a lot of money in the pot, I’m a solid favorite vs the short stack’s jamming range, the SB should have a healthy call-folding range, and I’ll be in OK shape even if the SB called.

After actually quantifying all of those assumptions, it seems like they were all slightly skewed in the wrong direction, and taken together they turn this into a pretty bad shove, especially at this stage of a major tournament.

For one thing, I’m not a favorite vs the short stack. I gave him all broadway hands, all Aces, all pairs, and some of the better suited connectors and I’m almost exactly 50/50. I don’t know that that range is exactly right, but fidgeting with it a bit didn’t change my equity by more than 1%.

I’m also in pretty bad shape when SB does call. Against {TT+,AJs+,AQo+}, I have less than 33% equity (which if I’d really thought about his calling range I would have realized in game, didn’t really need Slice for that one). I’m used to that being “good enough” but in a dry sidepot it’s a lot worse than when there are blinds and antes cushioning your fall.

It turns out that I show a small profit, about half a BB, if SB folds 2/3 of the time. The calling range I gave him was about 5%, and given the cards I’m holding he’ll actually have a hand in that range about 4% of the time (disregarding any blocker effects from the other player’s shoving range, which is admittedly Ace-heavy).

A generous range for his first call is all the pairs plus the better broadways and A9s. That has him folding about 2/3 of the time to my shove. However, this assumes that he never shoves some hands, like medium pairs, that he really shouldn’t be trying to induce or call-fold. Take those out of his calling range and my shove becomes a lot less good.

And all of that, with the generous assumptions, is still only enough to make this slightly +cEV, which for risking the last of my chips at this stage of the tournament is simply not good enough.

Of course a bad beat would have been disappointing, but it’s much more of a bummer to realize I busted on a bad play. At least I learned something, though I’m a little embarrassed that my instincts were so off in the first place.