Finding New Ways to Run Bad

I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve called with a bluff-catcher and lost to a hand my opponent thought he was bluffing with. I’ve been on the good end of such situations a bit more often, including at the final table of the FTOPS that I won, so I can’t really complain about running bad in them per se. Still, this was pretty annoying, in the money with about $100 players remaining in the $320 re-entry WCOOP:

PokerStars – $300+$20|600/1200 Ante 150 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 127.59 BB (VPIP: 26.58, PFR: 20.09, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 228)
SB: 66.01 BB (VPIP: 23.23, PFR: 18.37, 3Bet Preflop: 8.51, Hands: 100)
BB: 107.86 BB (VPIP: 36.81, PFR: 26.38, 3Bet Preflop: 27.40, Hands: 166)
UTG: 58.67 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 14.62, 3Bet Preflop: 11.54, Hands: 133)
Hero (MP): 105.67 BB
CO: 28.34 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has Ts As
fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop : (5.25 BB, 2 players) Jc 8h 5d
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (5.25 BB, 2 players) 2c
BB bets 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

River : (25.25 BB, 2 players) 5s
BB bets 50 BB, Hero calls 50 BB

BB shows Qc Ac (One Pair, Fives) (Pre 71%, Flop 86%, Turn 95%)
Hero mucks Ts As (One Pair, Fives) (Pre 29%, Flop 14%, Turn 5%)
BB wins 125.25 BB

This was a big pot. The amount that I lost was about the average stack at the time. Honestly, even if this is in his range, I still like my call. I think he just never has a value hand, and there are enough weaker draws that missed for me to come out ahead even if I lose or chop occasionally.

Also, even if I do occasionally call with worse, Villain’s bet is really bad, for basically the same reason that jamming 60BBs with AJo vs a 3BB button open is bad. His equity is very good vs my flop check back range but not good against my range for calling such a big turn bet.

Nevertheless, this was my 10th cash of the WCOOP, out of 25 tournaments played, so I feel good about that.

6 thoughts on “Finding New Ways to Run Bad”

  1. Do you think he would have floated a c-bet from you on the flop? Probably would but maybe he’d give up if you’d barrelled the turn. Agree with you his sizing is pretty bad, but in saying that, I’m a nitty fish so it would probably scare me off as played even on the turn. I’d rather bluff catch with good to weak-ish Js on the river, but I agree with your assessment that he so rarely has a value hand there, I guess this is necessitating the call as played. Be interested in what Nate thinks on this one. Cheers.

    • It wouldn’t really be a float, his hand is quite strong even on the flop. I’m actually surprised he didn’t 3-bet it. And no, there’s 0% chance he folds the nut flush draw on the turn.

  2. Did villain really bet 2x pot on turn and river, with a hand that beats your air, but none of your made hands?

    That is very strange.

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