My latest poker strategy article, What Do Ranges Want?, is now appearing in the Two Plus Two Magazine. And it’s inspired by some of your What’s Your Play? comments:
Some of my blog comments highlight this point starkly. When the Hero in the hypothetical hand example holds a strong hand and is trying to get value from something marginal, some commenters will argue for a small bet, on the grounds that marginal hands need to be offered good odds in order to call. Others will argue for a large bet, on the grounds that it will look like a bluff.
In a real life situation, you might actually have sufficient evidence to make a good guess about how your opponent will interpret or respond to a specific bet size, and in that case, you certainly should play accordingly. My hypotheticals don’t always offer that kind of evidence, though, which makes clear that many people are just blindly guessing about how their opponents will respond. Even in real life situations, blindly guessing is not the most profitable strategy.
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Your AK wants a call, your bluffs want a fold, but what does your range want?
I also realized that I never told you about my last article, which is now a month old. It’s called Making Money With A GTO Strategy, and it, too, is a response to some common objections to a game theoretical approach:
One of the most significant misunderstandings, and the one that I want to address in this article, is that game theoretically optimal (GTO) play is merely breakeven poker, which after accounting for the rake would actually yield a negative expected value for such a strategy. Although it’s true that two players employing equilibrium strategies would simply push money and back and forth until it was all raked away, such strategies can and do profit from opponents who employ unbalanced strategies.
Enjoy! And of course, I’d be eager to hear what you think of them.
Just read the GTO article. Well done.
Can’t remember who wrote this—it could have been you!—but the best simple explanation I’ve seen for the value of GTO is the comparison of Rock/Paper/Scissors and Tic-tac-toe. The GTO strategy for RPS (1/3,1/3,1/3, randomly) does indeed break-even. And that’s where a lot of the confusion stems from. But the GTO strategy for tic-tac-toe (white takes a corner first) never loses, but can win whenever black doesn’t take the center. GTO poker, as it turns out, is like tic-tac-toe, not like RPS.
The other aspect of GTO poker that I think is important that you didn’t raise is the effect it has on multi-tabling online. If you have a near-GTO strategy, you don’t have to build reads on anyone on any table, you can just profit off of their errors. Makes playing 6, 10, or however many tables much more manageable. No intention to play exploitively, no HUD required!
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Multitabling + rake + GTO bots with no human (poker expert) interferences on its strategy == profit ?
Long term profit?