That Tiny Turn Bet

I knew that my small turn bet in the recent Rate Our Play post would be controversial, and although I had reasons for doing it, they weren’t particularly exploitive, and I hadn’t actually used GTORB to look at the EV of betting larger. It turns out that even if you give Hero the option to make larger bets (75% of pot or all in), he doesn’t use those options. Of course that could be dependent on my assumptions about both players’ ranges, which are that Hero has a lot of Ax in his pre-flop range and is never check-raising the flop, and that Villain is c-betting the flop too often and in particular is bluff-heavy when betting. You can check out the entire GTORB tree, including the ranges I gave both players, for yourself.

Interestingly, though, Qs Ts is a pure bet for 75% of the pot on the river, so I was off there (it strictly folds to a raise). GTORB shows Villain folding T7 98% of the time on the turn, which probably means it’s strictly a fold and the results just didn’t quite converge, rather than that Villain is truly indifferent between calling and folding.