This week’s WYP is a little different, in that I don’t have a strong opinion about what’s best. I was actually hoping some of you smart people could help me out there, in particular with regard to how V2′s question and timing on the turn influences his range. My own, possibly results-oriented thinking was that it might weight him towards weaker draws. With a flush draw or open-ended draw, I think he might call without really thinking about it. If he’s asking, that could weight him towards gutshots or something like an 8 that has a chance of being good (in his eyes – no one’s saying he’s a great hand reader) plus some outs to improve. I also thought Gareth’s suggestion was interesting that V2′s indecision may have been “between calling/raising with a hand like 86s”.

I say I may be results oriented because I bet 3000, V1 sighed and folded, and V2 called with Jh 8h.

Value Betting

As many of you identified, Hero is very likely to have the best hand on the river. The question, however is not only how but whether he can get value from it. Especially in multi-way pots, where people tend to be more tight and passive, it can be difficult to get value from medium-strength hands.  Read the complete post...

I’ll be leading a small-group seminar on Hand Reading on Wednesday, February 8th at 2PM Eastern (19:00 GMT). The cost is $150/person, which includes a preparatory curriculum introducing a basic hand-reading technique, the two-hour seminar featuring opportunities to practice this method and receive individualized feedback, advanced strategy advice on counteracting opponents who hand-read well, and a follow-up curriculum to help you practice and expand your skills.

Thinking Poker Tournament Seminars are pre-scheduled, small-group discussions focused on the most common mistakes and skills gaps that I see in my NLHE tournament students. Each two-hour seminar costs $150 per person and is capped at five participants, to enable individualized attention and opportunities for everyone to ask questions and participate in discussions. The content is prepared and the discussion facilitated by me- it’s like an interactive poker video!

Hand reading is what separates mediocre and great post-flop play. It’s what enables you to extract an extra bet when you’re ahead, save a (usually large) bet when you’re beat, and pick off bluffs with weak hands that lesser players would fold without thinking twice. It’s the way great players accumulate chips in the early stages of a tournament when they aren’t getting slapped in the face with the deck.  Read the complete post...

I’m sad to say that I won’t be staying on as a member of PokerStars Team Online in 2012. It was a great honor and a great experience to be a member of the team, but so much has changed since I joined the team last year. Now that I’m unable to play online from my home country, I’m simply not able to commit to logging the kind of volume befitting a member of Team Online. It’s a shame that I only recently, at the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure, got to meet the other members of the team. They were a fascinating bunch of people, and I loved spending the week with them. My greatest disappointment is that I will no longer be able to call them my teammates. The following is my homage to this extraordinary group of poker players:

I know that there is zero chance of herding fifteen online poker pros into a conference room by 10AM, I tell myself that this is true and that I need not rush, but nevertheless I am there for our PokerStars Team Online meeting at 9:51. I just can’t help being early. This gives me nearly an hour to chat with the other “early” arrivers before we finally begin.  Read the complete post...

This is really the second WYP from the PCA, but the first was technically a “What’s Your Plan?”, and I couldn’t think of a catchier name for this one. It takes during Level 2 of the tournament, with blinds of 75/150 and effective stacks of well over 20K (I forget how much exactly but it wasn’t relevant for the hand).

Hero: It’s me. Late 20′s, wearing a PokerStars Team Online patch and sunglasses, not saying much but friendly when I do happen my mouth. I’ve been quiet so far and recently showed down KK in a 3-bet pot.

Villain 1: Middle-aged Canadian, recreational player, on the loose-passive side. He limps more than he raises in early position.

Villain 2: Young Spanish kid, maybe 22 at the oldest. This is likely one of the biggest events he’s played, as he’s giving off a bit of a “scared money”-vibe.

Villain 1 opens to 450 in early position, Villain 2 calls in the CO, and Hero calls with As Qs in the SB. The flop came Qd 8c 2h and checks all the way around. Hero bets 900 on a 6c turn, Villain 1 quickly calls, and Villain 2 asks how much, thinks for 15-20 seconds, and calls.  Read the complete post...

 Thanks to everyone who commented on this week’s “What’s Your Play?” Sorry for the delay in getting results up; I’m currently visiting old friends and a new baby in New York, and the days have been busy.

We’ll start with the results:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 320 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 50 Ante (8 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t24118)
SB (t25330)
BB (t9032)
UTG (t8323)
UTG+1 (t25215)
MP1 (t13846)
Hero (MP2) (t16901)
CO (t31444)

Hero’s M: 16.90

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A♦, 4♥
3 folds, Hero bets t800, 1 fold, Button calls t800, 2 folds

Flop: (t2600) 4♦, 4♠, K♥ (2 players)
Hero bets t1666, Button raises to t3640, Hero calls t1974

Turn: (t9880) 10♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: (t9880) 7♦ (2 players)
Hero bets t12411 (All-In), Button calls t12411

Total pot: t34702

Results:
Button had K♦, Q♦ (two pair, Kings and fours).
Hero had A♦, 4♥ (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: Hero won t34702

As many commenters identified, the crux of this hand is in recognizing that Hero’s hand looks reasonably strong after calling the flop raise. Many of you made compelling arguments for 3-betting the flop, which I’ll come back to in a moment.  Read the complete post...

Today’s mailbag question comes from a comment on the What’s Your Plan? Flopped Pair and Draw: Results post. It was a good question that I felt warranted a thorough response.

Q: Though honestly I agree with what you wrote I just wonder since “Villain is a young online MTT wizard: highly ranked on Pocket Fives, tons of success” we know (and he might not know we know) that he knows he can bet anything and probably get a fold tons of the time because he can have AK and it is much harder for other people to (especially when they don’t check raise the flop). As soon as we call I think Villain needs to become super cautious. Against anyone else I insta fold k10. I actually thought this example was how to outplay a wizard but I was wrong. : -) I guess I leveled myself!

A: If I understand you correctly, you’re asking whether Villain couldn’t bluff this flop with a really wide range since he can represent nutted hands (not only AK but sets as well) more easily than we can. This would be more of a consideration in a heads up pot.  Read the complete post...

Tommy Angelo was at this thought-provoking best with his recent blog post “Old Man Goals“, about mellowing out with age:

I only have one objective now when I drive, and that’s to not run into anything. If I decide to slow down or stop when I don’t really need to, that’s always the reason why. (What makes this possible is that I no longer think of time spent waiting for a light to change as being less valuable or less important than time spent with a loved one or playing poker or whatever. Another oldness trait perhaps?)

It’s typical Tommy to express such a deep and complex concept in such clear and simple terms. In the interest of understanding it better, I want to push back on it a bit.

For one thing, I definitely don’t think this is a natural result of aging. I know plenty of cranky and impatient old people, many of whom seem to have gotten worse with age.

More to the point, I think I get what he’s saying in principle, but in practice it’s hard for me to accept such deep ambivalence. Is Tommy really indifferent between sitting in traffic or catching up with an old friend? If so why get in the car at all? Why not sit at home and watch TV all day? Or just stare at the wall? Taking it to the extreme, is time spent with a loved one any more valuable or desirable to the ideally tranquil mind than time spent having one’s fingernails pulled out with pliers?  Read the complete post...

Villain is an unremarkable tournament grinder, probably a modest winner. I don’t know much about him, nor do I know what if anything he thinks of me. This is on PokerStars, so I do have my Team Online avatar which occasionally entices people to do crazy things, though I’ve got no specific reason to think that that’s a factor here. There’s no important history or table dynamic between us.

Poker Stars – $300+20 Tournament (#435011043) – Blinds: 200/400 +50 Ante, No Limit Hold’em (8 players)
Poker Stars Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: t25,330
BB: t9,032
UTG: t8,323
UTG+1: t25,215
MP: t13,846
MP+1 Hero: t16,901
CO: t31,444
BTN: t24,118

Pre-flop: (t600) Hero is MP+1 and dealt Ad 4h
3 folds, Hero raises to t800, CO folds, BTN calls t800, BB folds

Flop: (t2,200) 4d 4s Kh (2 players)
Hero bets t1,666, BTN raises to t3,640, Hero calls t1,974

Turn: (t9,480) 4d 4s Kh Ts (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (t9,480) 4d 4s Kh Ts 7d (2 players)

Hero has a little over 12K left in his stack, and Villain covers. What’s your play? Anything you’d do differently on earlier streets? I’ll post my thoughts and comments on or about Friday morning.