Wednesday, July 30, 2008

So Was I Right?

This was against some random in the weekly FTP 100 rebuy. I felt like although he probably was dumb enough to shove pocket pairs here, he'd raise most of them pre-flop. I felt like random diamonds, often with a dominated Ace, or just Ace-high would be his most likely holding. Didn't even consider this, but I guess it suggests he could at least show up with like AJ here:

Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, 50/100 Blinds, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): 5,000
UTG: 7,430
MP: 5,026
CO: 8,530
BTN: 1,773
SB: 4,741

Pre-Flop: (150) Q A dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, MP calls 100, 3 folds, Hero raises to 500, MP calls 400

Flop: (1,050) T T 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets 666, MP raises to 4,526 and is All-In, Hero calls 3,834 and is All-In

Turn: (10,050) 7 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: (10,050) J (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 10,050 Pot
Hero showed Q A (a pair of Tens) and LOST (-5,000 NET)
MP showed K A (a pair of Tens) and WON 10,050 (+5,050 NET)


Also, if he does have a small pair, note that I have some backdoor outs, including a flush and a running pair that would counterfeit him. Those probably add up to almost 5% extra equity and were definitely a consideration.

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5 Comments:

At July 31, 2008 12:17 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm guessing AQ isn't your favourite hand of late? :)
Belated congratulations for your run at the WSOP.

 
At July 31, 2008 4:32 AM , Anonymous ZaneKinetic said...

didn't you do a blog about bunch of AQ hands?

 
At July 31, 2008 9:20 AM , Blogger Foucault said...

Blarg. Thanks for reminding me.

 
At July 31, 2008 10:12 AM , Blogger Geoff said...

Strange he didn't raise preflop at some point.

 
At August 4, 2008 12:16 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello,

I am relatively new player, following your blog as an extension to your excellent coaching videos at pokersavvy+. (thanks for incredibly good work, btw)

But unfortunately, I am still dumb enough to shove pocket pair in this spot. Could you please expand a bit on why it is that bad?

Thanks again,
Michael

 

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