Guy Accidentally Busts Me

We're about 3.5 hours into a 1K multi-table satellite for the WSOP main event. Blinds are 300/600/75. Short stack moves all in for 3600. Button doesn't realize there's someone all in ahead of him and says "call", planning to call just the blinds. I have 99 in the BB and a little under 10K in chips. I shoved, Button called with JQ. Short stack has 66 and Button ends up busting us both with a hand he didn't even mean to play.

I wonder if my better play isn't to call and shove any flop. I kind of doubt that Button was open limping any pocket pairs, so there's not much danger of chasing out the hands against which I have the best equity. He was pretty LAGgy though, so I wouldn't be surprised if he would play something like 87s or some other hand I've got in bad shape the same way. It might not matter too much in the grand scheme of things, but it probably would have won me this pot.

Ten-Twenty-Five Live

I played about two hours of 10-25 NL at the Rio yesterday. The table wasn't full of spewmonkeys but I wasn't anticipating a lot of tough decisions. Mostly it was just a boring game. I say that, but I did actually bluff my entire $5K stack on my first hand.

Let me tell you another story first though. There was this wealthy Texan at the table who, when I first sat down, was on the phone placing sports bets. That's always a good sign. I later changed seats and ended up with him on my immediate left, meaning I was privy to the next two phone calls he made.

The first was to a woman named "Becky" whom he seemed to select somewhat arbitrarily from his address book. He hadn't seen her in a few months but turns out she was available for dinner on a few hours' notice.

His next call was a voicemail that I'll attempt to transcribe to the best of my memory: "Hey Jimmy, this is Dicky. Happy 20th birthday. That's a bit one. I'm sorry I won't be able to make it for your party tonight, I'm going to be tied up. I've got a little present for you, though- it's $50- you're mother will have that for you. You're growing into a fine young man. Hope you have fun."

Anyway, that big bluff I was talking about: I opened to $75 with AKs in late middle position and got 3-bet to $300 by a familiar-looking player on the button. I couldn't place where I'd seen him before, but he was young and serious-looking, which isn't a good sign. I assumed he was an internet pro whose face I'd randomly seen in a picture or something, but now that I think about it, I may actually have played with him at Foxwoods. It makes a huge difference which he is, but at the time, I was thinking internet, so anyway...

He 3-bets to $300, and I decided to make it $800 and fold to a 4-bet (he had me covered). He thinks for a while and calls. The flop comes down rags with two of my suit. I bet $1200, planning to unhappily call a shove. My hope was that he would just call and then I could shove the turn. That's exactly what happened. He tanked for a while but folded what was probably TT-QQ. I doubt anyone else at the table would make that fold, but then I wouldn't have 4-bet anyone else either.

So I made $2000 on my first hand, but I later misplayed a hand pretty badly and cost myself most of that profit. A new player had just joined the table, an older black man who seemed to be a regular in the Tunica games. He bought in deep enough to cover my nearly $7K stack.

I got AKs UTG+1 and raised to $75. Only the new guy called out of his BB. The flop came 862 and gave me my flush draw. He checked, I bet $125, and he raised to $400. I called. The turn was an off-suit 3, he checked, I bet $525, and he raised to $2000. I folded.

My turn bet is just atrocious. With less showdown value, it might be OK, like if I had a ten-high flush draw or something. But even then, I'm primarily relying on bluffing him off of bluffs, which assumes he's capable of check-raise bluffing the flop against an unknown early position raiser. With AK, I beat his bluffs anyway, so there's little value in betting and risking getting blown off a strong draw.

I ended up nearly dead even on the session and didn't play any other interesting pots.

Hilarious 1K Single Table Satellite

Most of the money I brought to Vegas came in the form of a cashier's check, which apparently needs to be verified by the bank before I can cash it, so I'm pretty much broke until tomorrow. What else to do than play a 1K Single Table Satellite for the WSOP, then? Those are always a hoot.

The table looks perfect: one wannabe hotshot guy about my age, one middle-aged Israeli, 7 middle-aged white guys. A few of them are talking about having played 10-20 tournaments in the series, but they all suck. The two slightly less terrible guys are on my immediate left, but whatever.

I don't play a hand for the first hour, they are all splashing around a little bit but no one's playing big pots. Blinds 100/200, I have a little less than the 4K starting stack. Action folds to me in SB with hotshot in the big. I open limp, he raises to 825, I shove, he moans and groans and tells me how tight I've been, eventually folding an Ace face up like it's the greatest play ever. I casually show him a deuce, and the table goes wild.

Next orbit folds to me in the small, I open to 1200 with TT, hotshot shoves A9, my hand holds up and he's crippled.

Next orbit it's 150/300 he shoves for 1100 UTG action folds to dude in SB who calls. I shove in 8K with KJ on my BB, SB folds and says he had 76s. I get there vs. 55 to eliminate hotshot in 10th.

Button makes a small raise, I shove JJ in SB, Isreali goes on and on about he has the best hand but he's gonna be conservative and folds 66 face up. I show my JJ cuz now I want some fold equity on my shoves.

We play for a while, nothing much happens, eventually Israeli is getting sort. At 300/600, he shoves from early position for 3600. Action folds to me in the BB and I actually have a bit of a decision with AT. He seems to "get it" a little more than the others and recently lost a pot so I call. He has A6 but hits his 6 on the turn. Board is TT76 so I've got 8 outs on river but can't get there. I pass him his chips with no whining/fanfare.

This pot constitutes about 20% of the chips in play, but I'm still the chipleader even after losing it. I make a small CO raise with 99, SB shoves, naturally I call, but he has AQ and wins the flip.

Now I'm short, and a few hands later I shove 43s for 5x or so. Israeli goes on and on about he's gonna play to win and shoves over the top with KJo in the CO. He's ahead unimproved through the turn, then I bang a 3 on the river and he gets pissed, even though I'm in way better shape than he was with A6 and it's a smaller pot. I don't say a word, and eventually a few of his buddies come over and he recounts the story for them about the guy who goes all in with 4-high. I just shake my head.

Some other crap happened, I won some pots with pre-flop raises/shoves (and pots were tremendous at this point), I lost another flip to the Israeli, my AKs loses to 55, and then blinds are 600/1200. Israeli opens to 3000, guy to his left shoves 6400 total, Israel thinks for a while, which is funny in its own right, and finally folds!

There was also a hand, not involving Isreali, where the Button shoves for like 4BB, the SB reshoves 6BB, and the BB folds AQ face-up.

Action folds to me on Button, I shove 7BB or so with K9, Israeli wakes up with JJ in SB and holds up. Now I've got 1800 total, so there's no such thing as fold equity. I fold 73 and 72, and then I post the BB for 2/3 of my stack. CO shoves, I call blind, he flips K7, I have 74. Lovely. His hand holds, and I go out in 6th.

Focking Marcel Luske

Edit: As I was drifting off to sleep last night, it occurred to me that I should have titled this post "Loosey Luske". In my defense, it was 3AM and I'd been playing Stud/8 for 8 hours, so my creative juices were a bit stymied.

Early in level 7, the Flying Dutchman joins our table, upside-down sunglasses and all. Almost immediately, he takes half my stack.

Action folds to me in middle position. I've got 8(72), hardly a premium hand, but there's nothing but junk behind me: two Queens, Marcel with a Jack, and an 8 on the bring-in. I raise, Marcel calls with the J, everyone else folds.

On 4th, I catch an A, Marcel catches a 4. I bet, he calls. Odds are good he's got a pair of Jacks (though maybe I should expect him to 3-bet that more often than call?), but I've got outs to both halves of the pot plus the A is a scare card.

On 5th, I brick, and Marcel catches a 3. I bet, he calls.

On 6th, I pair my 8, he catches 2. I bet, he raises. That was unexpected. I think for a while and can't figure what he has. A5 suited with the Jack seems most likely, or maybe rolled-up Jacks that he's been slowplaying. Somewhat less likely are 65 suited with the J or a smaller pair in the hole that's since made trips. I seriously consider folding but decide to call.

Thankfully I brick the river and check-fold. The guy on my right asks Marcel to show the suited A5. Marcel shows A5, but only the 5 is suited to the J. Obviously not a standard call on 3rd, but Marcel's almost certainly a better S/8 player than I am, so I don't want to write it off as an error. Possibly he put me on a steal and had a plan to take it away later if he didn't go runner runner runner perfect.

I could have sworn that they'd said we were only playing 7 levels, but there indeed 8, and I busted about halfway through the last level. I got it in on 5th with four to a low and a pair of Aces against an open pair of 7's and what turned out to be Kings up. They both made full houses on the river, and I missed my low.

This was one of the more interesting hands from a heads up match I played as part of a Poker Savvy Plus video. I think it illustrates at several different points how position and a solid read on an opponent enables you to navigate a tricky situation.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($427.50)
SB ($260)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2, 2
Hero bets $6, SB calls $4

Flop: ($12) K, 7, 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, SB raises to $24, Hero calls $16

Turn: ($60) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $42, Hero calls $42

River: ($144) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $105, 1 fold

Total pot: $144 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero didn't show 2, 2 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $143.50


My opponent was not super-aggressive, but he did seem to be capable of check-raise bluffing some flops, and this was a good one for it. I think his check-raising range on the flop is good top pairs and better, draws (of which there are very few), and bluffs. He would have check-called a weaker pair or Ace-high type of hand. An underpair actually has very poor equity against that range, and if Villain were a trickier player, I think I'd have to fold the flop.

In this case, though, I felt I had a good handle on his turn tendencies. In particular, I didn't think he would follow up on his bluffs very often, allowing me to take my hand to showdown if it was best. That's a very important consideration when you're bluff-catching on early streets: even if you do have the best hand, will you be able to show it down or will you often get bluffed off it before the river?

I'd also seen that he was capable of betting again with a good top pair when the board paired on the turn. Thus, despite my read that he wouldn't often fire a second bluff, I thought he was more likely to have one pair (well, two pair technically, but you know what I mean) than trips or better when he bet the turn. There were just so few sevens/sets in his flop range that I thought bluffs and Kings were the majority of his turn range.

Obviously deuces are not in good shape against that range, particularly not with a pair on the board. At this point, I am not calling with the intention to showdown my hand. Rather, I'm floating the turn, expecting that Villain will check-fold often on the river. Although I'll sometimes be bluffing with the best hand, I also believe that I get him off of his top pair hands.

Basically, there's no reason why he would check a strong hand on the river. If he likes his hand, he'll shove. With a medium-strength hand like top pair moderate kicker, I think he'll check expecting me to check back very often. When I do bet, it's very hard for him to put me on something worse than a good K. I'd have to have been floating him twice to show up with a bluff on the river.

Article Requests

I've recently received a few requests for old articles of mine that appeared in the 2+2 Magazine. First off, let me apologize that my archive is so out of date. The revamping of the website has proved far more complicated than anticipated, but it is nearly finished now. When it launches, it will contain an up-to-date archive of all my strategy articles and book reviews. Until then, you're free to e-mail requests for specific articles to me at foucault82(at)yahoo(dot)com. As long as the volume doesn't get overwhelming, I'm generally able to reply very quickly, though there may be some delay while I'm in Las Vegas the next few weeks. Thanks to everyone who's interested in reading these, it's very flattering!

WSOPWSOP

Though I haven't played as many WSOP satellites this year as I did in years past, restricting myself only to those with $500+ buy-ins, I managed by yesterday to spend enough on satellites that I could have just bought in direct and paid myself the bonus money that comes with the FTP and Stars packages. Naturally, I hadn't yet won a seat.

Today, though, I played three satellites and won two of them! One was on Stars and one was, for the first time in my career, on FTP. The Stars sponsorship package sucks this year, and I haven't looked into FTP's but I doubt it's much better, so I'll probably go without and hope to negotiate something if I go deep.

I'm too tired to think through all the hands I played, but here's one moderately neat one against the most active player at the table:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $615+$35 Tournament, 700/1400 Blinds 175 Ante (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t28911)
UTG (t42460)
UTG+1 (t47562)
MP1 (t40961)
Hero (MP2) (t41997)
CO (t37399)
Button (t32798)
SB (t55403)

Hero's M: 12.00

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, 7
3 folds, Hero bets t2888, 3 folds, BB calls t1488

Flop: (t7876) 2, J, 9 (2 players)
BB bets t3800, Hero raises to t8888, 1 fold

Total pot: t15476

Yeah, I'm representing a really narrow range, but what's he gonna do about it? Three-bet jam on me with air on the bubble of a satellite? I don't think he ever leads out here with a strong hand. For one thing, he's jamming anything that makes top pair good kicker or better pre-flop except for J9 (doubt he calls J2 or 92). If he has a draw or any pair, particularly at this stage of the tournament, he'd definitely prefer to be the one shoving in (ie by check-shoving) than the one calling by leading out to induce a shove from me.

I Hate Good Players

Full Tilt Poker, $40/$80 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $34,593
Hero (BB): $22,437
UTG: $19,010
CO: $22,366
BTN: $8,180

Pre-Flop: 8 6 dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, SB raises to $320, Hero calls $240

Flop: ($640) 5 4 5 (2 Players)
SB bets $420, Hero calls $420

Turn: ($1,480) A (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $666, SB calls $666

River: ($2,812) K (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Results: $2,812 Pot ($3 Rake)
SB showed 9 Q (a pair of Fives) and WON $2,809 (+$1,403 NET)
Hero showed 8 6 (a pair of Fives) and LOST (-$1,406 NET)

This isn't really all that fancy or anything, and obviously my range on the turn is quite wide, but a lot of people just aren't capable of check-calling down with Q-high. I'm glad I didn't bluff the river, because I'm pretty sure he would have called.

I Am Adorable

I didn't have any kind of read that dude was gonna spaz out like this, but it's the kind of thing that happens when you make strange bets:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($885)
SB ($2165)
Hero (BB) ($2458)
UTG ($2519)
MP ($835)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, K
2 folds, Button bets $30, 1 fold, Hero raises to $111, Button calls $81

Flop: ($227) 5, 5, K (2 players)
Hero bets $166, Button calls $166

Turn: ($559) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $111, Button raises to $608 (All-In), Hero calls $497

River: ($1775) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $1775 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 9, J (two pair, nines and fives).
Hero had A, K (two pair, Kings and fives).
Outcome: Hero won $1772

A Critical Bet Sizing Tell

Let me say up front that I do this whole "check and figure it out" thing entirely too often against good players, and I have to stop. That said, in this case something about his turn bet led me to conclude that I ought to call the river.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($2000.30)
Hero (UTG) ($2000)
MP ($1543.50)
CO ($1734.80)
Button ($2358.50)
SB ($2077.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5, A
Hero bets $33, 2 folds, Button raises to $106, 2 folds, Hero raises to $266, Button calls $160

Flop: ($556) 6, A, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($556) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $290, Hero calls $290

River: ($1136) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1801 (All-In), Hero calls $1442.50 (All-In)

Total pot: $4021 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 8, 9 (high card, Ace).
Hero had 5, A (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $4018


Let me kick this one to you, dear readers. Can you figure out what it is about the sizing of his turn bet that led me to call his overbet shove on the river?

Nice River

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $50.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($9000.50)
UTG ($16025)
MP ($5309)
Hero (CO) ($10269)
Button ($10000)
SB ($10391)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, J
2 folds, Hero bets $175, 1 fold, SB calls $150, 1 fold

Flop: ($400) J, 8, 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($400) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $269, SB raises to $1025, Hero calls $756

River: ($2450) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1669, 1 fold

Total pot: $2450 | Rake: $3


A big part of my reason for checking the flop is that I so rarely check back a flush draw, and this is one of the best flush draws to check (ie also having top pair to go along with it, so that the fold equity of a semi-bluff isn't worth much to you). This means that when the flush comes in on the turn, my opponent is going to think I can't have it.

So, OK, I get the raise I wanted, which is probably a bluff but could be two pair or a set that's comfortable bloating the pot since I'll rarely have the flush. When I call, I don't know how often he'll continue bluffing. Rivers that pair the board are definitely going to be scary for him, though, as are diamonds, since my likely holding for calling is either set/two pair or a pair with a diamond.

Given that there are so many rivers that discourage bluffing, plus the fact that he may not continue bluffing anyway, plus the fact that his river bluff wouldn't be that big, I might be better off 3-betting the turn. I imagine he'll bluff less often, but when he does, it will have to be a far bigger amount than a river bluff would be. Plus, if he's check-raising for value, I can win a much bigger pot from him.

Final Tabled the Stars $300

Maybe I haven't forgotten how to play tournaments altogether? I went into yesterdays' session resolved not to LAG off too many stacks in my tournaments, and while I didn't entirely keep that pledge, I did play a pretty disciplined game in the Stars $300. To wit:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $300+$20 Tournament, 1250/2500 Blinds 250 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP (t127213)
Hero (CO) (t79552)
Button (t84040)
SB (t67653)
BB (t142860)
UTG (t76565)

Hero's M: 15.15

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q
UTG bets t5575, 1 fold, Hero raises to t12222, 2 folds, BB raises to t32500, 2 folds

Total pot: t32769


UTG was by far the most active player at the table, and I'd been 3-betting him quite a bit on the final table bubble. Here I was going to fist-pump-snap-call if he shoved, but the cold 4-bet from the much tighter BB sent me packing without much thought.

Immediately after that hand, I was moved to the other table, where I made this slightly more questionable fold:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $300+$20 Tournament, 1250/2500 Blinds 250 Ante (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t226479)
MP (t160520)
Button (t42353)
SB (t213820)
Hero (BB) (t61025)

Hero's M: 12.21

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, A
1 fold, MP calls t2500, 1 fold, SB calls t1250, Hero checks

Flop: (t8750) 9, 7, 8 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets t7500, 1 fold, Hero folds

Total pot: t8750


This might be a bit too tight, but my thinking was that this guy's limp was a little suspicious to begin with (remember, I am brand new to the table, so no read), and I don't think he's potting it with just anything. In particular, I'm not sure how many worse pairs/weak draws are in his pre-flop limping range, and I don't think he's betting with air. Even if I am ahead of his betting range, I don't think I'm ahead of his range for calling a check-shove, and the hand will be tough to play if I just check-call. Maybe I should have led out?

Anyway, I went on to make the final table only to be eliminated in 9th when my 77 lost to AKs all in preflop.

Pot Odds!

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1000)
SB ($1195.75)
Hero (BB) ($2396)
UTG ($1232)
MP ($1679)
CO ($1052)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 10
2 folds, CO bets $30, Button calls $30, SB calls $25, Hero raises to $150, CO raises to $300, 2 folds, Hero calls $150

Flop: ($660) 8, J, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($660) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($660) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $111, 1 fold

Total pot: $660 | Rake: $3


I hope he wasn't planning on folding to a pre-flop shove. Even putting him on a very strong range, I don't want to fold getting 3.5:1. The flop is a tough decision. I surely fold to a shove, but I can't very well open shove myself. I'm probably just calling if I get the right odds and folding otherwise.

Shoving the turn is probably best. For some reason, I had a feeling he was trapping. I guess it was just that I thought he was really strong pre-flop.

On the river, I just wanted to have some fun. Obviously I don't need him to fold often at all for this to show a profit, plus it just puts a smile on your face when it works.

May

May was a solid month, though a bit bittersweet because it started off phenomenally and then took a pretty sour turn. I can't complain about the bottom line, but let's see what kind of progress I'm making on my yearly goals.

Resolution One: Keep Grinding NLHE Cash Games

Goal 1: Earn $X in NLHE Cash Games

Still chugging along at not-quite-on-track-but-satisfied-nonetheless. I've played about 165K hands, which I'm happy about as well.

Goal 2: Earn Supernova status on PokerStars

I'm on track anyway, having maintained by Platinum status for the month, but I'd really like to win a Poker Stars WSOP satellite for the cash overlay and the 100K VPPs.

Resolution Two: Diversify My Income Streams

Goal 3: Monetize This Blog

The WordPress upgrade I promised way back when is finally under serious development, thanks to minimal effort from myself and considerable work on the part of my girlfriend.

Goal 4: Get Back Into Coaching

I finished up the first group seminar and was very happy with how it went. All three participants have told me they were as well, and one of them has already arranged some individual sessions.

I'm not going to start another group seminar before the WSOP, but I am open to taking on a few new individual students. Cost for individual lessons is $250/hour. I probably won't run another group seminar until after the WSOP, but when I do, cost will likely be $100/student/hour. I generally aim to work with students for 5-10 hours over the course of a few weeks, and the lessons are designed to run very efficiently. There's a lot of content packed into every session, ensuring you a ton of value for your money.

I'd say my target audience is cash game players currently playing smaller stakes (50NL-400NL) who want to transition into bigger games. I can help you think about your game in a new way, identify leaks, and deal with the tough spots with which the more difficult opponents at higher stakes will surely confront you.

Hit me up at foucault82 (at) yahoo (dot) com if you're interested. Tell me a little about yourself, what you currently play, and what your goals are. Of course I'm happy to answer any questions as well.

Goal 5: Market My Writing

Well, select articles are now available in Finnish, which is pretty cool. Not much else to report, though.

Resolution Three: Improve My NLHE Skills

Goal 6: Use Poker Tracker More Effectively

I'm currently enjoying my free trial of Hold 'Em Manager. I feel like a total traitor for saying this, because I've long been a huge fan of Poker Tracker, and their support is out-of-this-world. That's not a trivial thing when dealing with database issues.

I must admit, though, that HEM seems to have much better functionality. I like their HUD, I like their filters and reports, and I like their graphs. I'm probably going to buy the full version and convert.

Goal 7: Finish the Year with a 4BB/100 Win-Rate at 5/10 NL.

My overall win-rate right now is 1.83 BB/100. More impressive, though, is that it's at 7 BB/100 over 17K hands at 25/50 and 8 BB/100 over 34K hands at 10/20.

Surprisingly, I'm barely breaking even over 100K hands at 5/10. I'm guessing that's some combination of game selection and luck, which have both been considerably better at the higher stakes.

Goal 8: Play 50,000 Hands of Heads Up NLHE

I only played about 2000 hands this month, but for the year I'm at almost 10BB/100 over 22K hands. I'm hoping that a recent policy change at Full Tilt Poker will make it easier to find action going forward:

"Due to increasing complaints of players occupying many tables alone, Full Tilt Poker will be introducing limitations on the number of heads-up cash games that a player can be sitting at while waiting for an opponent.

Effective immediately, a player is permitted to wait at only one table for each betting level and game type, and at most four tables in total.

For example, you may sit and wait for an opponent at $5-10 NL Hold'em, $5-10 PL Hold'em, $10-20 NL Hold'em, and $10-20 PL Hold'em, but you may not sit and wait at more than one table of any one type, and not more than four tables in total.

The limitations only apply to the practice of occupying many tables while waiting. If you are actively playing at a heads-up table, you may then begin waiting at another table of the same type. There is no restriction on the number of tables you may play (other than the normal limitations on active games)."

When I first received an e-mail from FTP with the subject line "Notification of Seating Limit Policy", my heart skipped a beat. I feared this might be some doomsday e-mail telling me I couldn't play more than four tables or something. Instead, it turns out to address a practice that majorly pisses me off, which is a bunch of regulars sitting alone at four or more heads up tables and refusing to play anyone but fish.

When I'm looking for a game, it's incredibly annoying to have to scroll through 60 open tables filled with the same 10 players who I know won't play with me hoping to find a single name I don't recognize. And of course since I refused to stoop to that level of douchery, the odds of a fish choosing to sit at my one open table were considerably lower. But that all ends today, woohoo!

Dani "Ansky" Stern Finishes Fourth in the WSOP 40K!

Congratulations to Poker Savvy's Dani "Ansky" Stern, who finished fourth for better than half a million dollars in the special $40K NLHE WSOP anniversary event. I'm ashamed to say that I didn't even realize he was at the final table. I'd looked at an article about the final table that didn't mention him and never looked into it any further.

The field featured 201 players, including most of the best in the world, and the final table definitely represented that. Dani had to tangle with the likes of Ted Forrest, Greg Raymer, Justin Bonomo, Alec Torelli, and former Poker Savvy pro Isaac Haxton, who finished second to eventual winner Vitaly Lunkin.

Congratulations Dani!

Debunking Myths About Implied Odds

My latest poker strategy articles, Debunking Myths About Implied Odds, has just been published in the June 2009 issue of 2+2 Magazine. The article explores one of the most important and misunderstood concepts in big bet poker:

"Calling a late position raise with a suited connector when you have the button is a good example [of implied odds that don't depend on making a strong hand]. Since the pre-flop raiser probably has a wide and not particularly strong range, you can’t count on winning a big pot on the rare occasions that you make two pair or better. Because his range is so wide, though, you will often be able to steal the pot when you flop a weak draw or even a scary board texture. Whether you want to call it implied odds, bluff equity, or something else, this is as much a justification for taking slightly the worst of it on an early street as is drawing at a monster hand."

Read more about this and other misunderstood aspects of implied odds in the 2+2 Magazine!

Even Good Players Suck at Satellites

There were 61 players remaining in a Poker Stars $650 satellite, and 51 seats to be won. We were already at the point where we'd be getting our buyins back. I was in like 49th or so place with 25K chips at 1250/2500 and had a nice spot for stealing. On my right were a far too tight short stack and a guy with a huge stack who was just folding virtually everything. On my left were two stacks about equal to my own, and the guy two to my left was someone I knew to be a successful tournament player. Action folds to me on the button, I shove J9s, "decent" tourney player calls me with AT and wins the flip.

He had me covered, but barely, so it was very near to being a flip for his life. Even if he puts me on any two, which isn't correct but not an unreasonable assumption, he's only a 68-32 favorite. As a good player at this stage of the tournament, he's probably got at least a 70% chance of winning a seat if he folds this hand, and of course busting me doesn't guarantee him a seat anyway.

Thinking about this river play cheers me up a little though:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($4931.50)
Button ($8070)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, Q
Button bets $60, Hero raises to $222, Button calls $162

Flop: ($444) Q, J, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $240, Hero calls $240

Turn: ($924) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($924) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $420, Hero raises to $1444, Button calls $1024

Total pot: $3812 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Button had 10, J (two pair, Jacks and fours).
Hero had A, Q (two pair, Queens and fours).
Outcome: Hero won $3811.50

This is a pretty optimistic value bet on his part on the river, though I actually don't mind calling the check-raise. There's actually an outside chance he was betting to induce a check-raise, which I would like far better than value betting (funny how the same play can be good or bad depending on the reasoning), but I doubt that's a play in his arsenal.

Anyway, for me, leading out on the river looks really strong. Not like "set or better" strong, but definitely like a value bet. I think checking is the only option for me, and between his turn check and his small bet sizing, I'm comfortable saying my hand is good 90% of the time here.

Pretty Sure He Ought to Call Me Here

It's very unlikely he has a straight- I think he bets virtually every 8 on the turn, and doesn't 3-bet that many hands with 8's in them in the first place- but realistically I don't know how often I check an 8 on the turn either. Though it might be a sexy way to play something like 98 that can also catch bluffs. Cool that he folded though:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50.00 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($7066)
Button ($5000)
Hero (SB) ($5000)
BB ($24469.50)
UTG ($3975)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, Q
3 folds, Hero bets $177, BB raises to $450, Hero calls $273

Flop: ($900) 9, 6, 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $400, Hero raises to $1111, BB calls $711

Turn: ($3122) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

River: ($3122) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $3439 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $3122 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero didn't show A, Q (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $3120

I Do Win the Big Ones Sometimes

I know I've whined about some big pots I've lost of late, so I figured I should reassure you all that I win some big ones too. It's actually been a pretty good month. Here's the biggest one of late:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $50.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($10916)
SB ($11889)
Hero (BB) ($11684)
UTG ($20794)
MP ($14585)
CO ($10344)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, 10
3 folds, Button bets $150, 1 fold, Hero raises to $550, Button calls $400

Flop: ($1185) A, Q, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $799, Button calls $799

Turn: ($2783) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1800, Hero calls $1800

River: ($6383) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $7757 (All-In), Hero calls $7757

Total pot: $21897 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 8, J (one pair, Queens).
Hero had 10, 10 (full house, tens over Queens).
Outcome: Hero won $21894

To be honest, I actually took my time before calling, so much so that a few railbirds accused me of slowrolling. Most of the big pots I've lost this month have been cold decks where I have the smaller set/flush/quads, so I guess I'm just a little gunshy. Not only is a bluff possible, but this Villain is very capable of big, thin value bets. I wouldn't be shocked to see him show up with as little as AK, and he probably does this for value with any Q. The fact that he can do that makes a bluff like this one more effective.

I believe this is the second largest pot I've won, trailing behind this one which was actually from a 10/20 game.

Olen julkkis Suomessa!

That's right! My thousands of Finnish readers will be thrilled to learn that select articles from my archive will now be available in Finnish at Pokerisvut. Currently appearing: Tuottoisia virheitä (Profitable Mistakes).

I don't speak a word of Finnish, but I'm enjoying looking at Pokerisvut's news sidebar nonetheless. Between cognates and proper names, it's not too difficult to figure out what's going on. To wit: Dan "Wretchy" Martin sai porttikiellot multiaccountingin takia.

This, by the way, is the project that I referenced back in my April post that would be of interest to very few if any readers. If you happen to be of the German persuasion, you can read select articles in your native language at PokerOlymp.

Book Review: Transitioning from NLHE to PLO by Tri Nguyen

My One Minute Recommendation: The Pot Limit Omaha Book: Transitioning from NLHE to PLO scores a 9/10. There are probably better books for all-around poker noobs, but experienced NLHE players looking to get better at “the other big bet game” would be hard-pressed to find a better resource.

The Good: Advanced tactics, high-level strategy, strong theoretical grounding, well-explained, genuinely insightful, appropriately calibrated for its target audience

The Bad: Some concepts, including but not limited to certain basic skills, not covered in great detail

The Ugly: A little unpolished, with some typos and minor grammatical errors; feels pretty much like reading a Word document, albeit a nicely laid out Word document

Tri “Slowhabit” Nguyen’s Transition from NLHE to PLO delivers just what the title promises: a strong guide to Pot-Limit Omaha, delivered at a pace and level appropriate for a poker player with a fairly sophisticated understanding of No Limit Hold ‘Em. Though there is plenty of practical advice and hand examples, this is not a soup to nuts “how to” guide offering a ready-to-play strategy. In fact, it could stand to be a bit more comprehensive in its advice for specific, common situations. Rather, it is a rigorously mathematical theoretical framework for approaching the game. It will require a thorough understanding of poker to appreciate the depth of this book, but for someone with such an understanding, it should prove an invaluable text, certainly worth its not inconsiderable $375 price tag.

Nguyen could be more explicit about his intended audience, though the title and I imagine the marketing strategy will likely make this clear enough. The introduction does promise, accurately enough, to “teach you the nuances of PLO and what variables you should consider during hands to turn yourself into a more profitable player,” with the ultimate goal of getting the reader “crushing small and mid-stakes PLO.” The text assumes a sophisticated understanding of crucial poker concepts such as equity, hand ranges, semi-bluffing, and planning ahead. None of it should be beyond an active reader of 2+2 or my blog, but this is not a mass market book. The Glossary includes only two terms and offers a superficial description even of those.

The only time this affects the quality of the discussion is with Nguyen’s use of the term “outs”. I’ve generally understood the term to mean something like “cards that could come to win you the pot when you are not currently ahead”, but Nguyen sometimes uses it to talk about cards that will improve a hand, whether or not that improvement is actually enough to win the pot. Given that it is so important in PLO to distinguish between nut and non-nut draws, it couldn’t hurt to define these terms more explicitly.

Though the book is definitely written with a NLHE player in mind, it should be useful to any serious poker player. There are a lot of helpful analogies, though, where Nguyen considers similarities and differences between how specific concepts function in the two games or explains that holding X hand in PLO is akin to holding Y hand in NLHE. Being primarily a NLHE player myself, I found these very insightful and helpful tools.

It also helps that many of the hand examples, integrated into every chapter via convenient sidebars alongside the relevant text, seem drawn from the author’s own transition from NLHE to PLO. It is both welcoming and encouraging to see him admit to misplaying a hand as a result of a misunderstanding common to NLHE players learning PLO. I found I was able to recognize specific mistakes that I had made and begin to understand why my past forays into PLO had not gone as well as I hoped- and that was before I got to the “Common Mistakes” chapter.

Such reinforcement is nice, because while Transitioning from NLHE to PLO rekindled my excitement for the game, it also made me realize how much I don’t know and how much work will be required to master hand reading and equity calculation, both of which are far more complicated than their NLHE equivalents. It’s not that the tools aren’t there. The text provides plenty of examples and in-depth analysis of advanced concepts like blockers, backdoor draws, and floating. It just makes me realized what a tall mountain there is to climb. Thankfully, Nguyen also emphasizes how many players in today’s PLO games don’t have an inkling about any of this stuff, which is reassuring.

It does beg the question of the book’s longevity, though. There’s a mix of tactics that seem fundamental to playing the game well in any context and those designed to exploit mistakes and tendencies common in contemporary PLO games. It will be interesting to see how long the latter remain viable. Since Transitioning is an e-book, Nguyen could theoretically update it, though to my knowledge he hasn’t promised anything like this.

I’m not particularly familiar with e-book technology, but I would guess that Transitioning falls somewhere in the middle of the spectrum with regard to balancing the reader’s convenience with the protection of the author’s intellectual property. The book is protected by LockLizard Safeguard, meaning that you need to download and install a special PDF viewer, then register your version of the book, before you can read it. This sounds like a hassle, but the instructions were clear, and it took me less than five minutes to set up. After that, I had full rights to read and print, though not copy and paste, the document indefinitely.

The other potentially intimidating aspect of the book is the math. It isn’t actually that complicated, and the author does a great job of explaining it, but there are a lot of graphs and calculations and even some algebra. Next to The Mathematics of Poker, it’s the most math-heavy poker book I’ve seen.

Not that that’s a bad thing. In fact, these were probably the best parts of the book. I particularly liked a chart enumerating the possible hands on each street in PLO vs. NLHE, and Nguyen’s quantification of the heretofore nebulous concept of “post-flop playability” struck me as pure genius. Understanding it does require interpreting a graph of hand equity on all possible flops, though. Again, the text offers a crystal clear explanation, but I’m sure a good high school math education helps.

The other concept I found very helpful, and which seems to motivate Nguyen’s general approach to the game, is equity realization. Basically, because hand values tend to run close together in PLO, Nguyen places a premium on bluffing, fold equity, and winning pots without showdown. He argues quite convincingly for making a lot of turn and river bluffs, often deferring aggressive action on an earlier street in order to make a better, often more aggressive, decision later in the hand.

Amidst all of the more advanced theory and strategy, certain concepts do feel a bit glossed over. Although the chapter on pre-flop hand selection is one of the longest, it still offers relatively vague advice about exactly which hands to play from which position and how to play them. It’s consistent with Nguyen’s general approach of “here are the key considerations, work through the specific situation yourself”, but readers will probably be accustomed to finding more specific starting hand advice in a poker book. That’s probably as much the nature of PLO as it is a flaw in the book, though.

More disappointing is the “River Play” chapter, which covers barely three pages. As much emphasis as Nguyen places on river bluffing, it was disappointing not to get more hand examples and an extended discussion of key concepts like value betting and inducing bluffs.

Nguyen’s writing style is less professional than I’m accustomed to seeing in a poker book. Some will find the casual tone welcoming, though nits like myself will be perturbed by minor grammatical errors, none of which influenced my understanding of the text.

Overall, Transitioning From NLHE to PLO is a fantastic book for a veteran No Limit Hold ‘Em player who wants to make a serious effort at learning Pot Limit Omaha. Nguyen requires a substantial investment of time, effort, and money from his readers, but it’s hard to imagine any smart poker player not getting very good at this quite complex game if he spent enough time working with this text.

FTOPS $500 Main Event

Standard tournament garbage. Congratulations, though, to my long-time reader and former student Diego, who made the final table! Diego, why oh why did you back out of our staking deal?!!?

Obviously I'm planning a check-raise here, but given his bet sizing, I actually think I might be better off just calling:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t5040)
MP1 (t8905)
MP2 (t7335)
CO (t6325)
Button (t6880)
SB (t7750)
Hero (BB) (t10280)
UTG (t2575)

Hero's M: 137.07

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, 8
4 folds, CO bets t150, 1 fold, SB calls t125, Hero calls t100

Flop: (t450) 6, 8, Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets t200, 1 fold, Hero calls t200

Turn: (t850) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (t850) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets t700, Hero raises to t1980, CO raises to t3910, Hero calls t1930

Total pot: t8670

Results:
Hero had J, 8 (flush, Queen high).
CO had A, 4 (flush, Ace high).
Outcome: CO won t8670


That one was far less annoying than this:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $50.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($7653.50)
MP ($1972)
CO ($9506)
Button ($4900)
SB ($5025)
Hero (BB) ($5075)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, K
3 folds, Button bets $150, 1 fold, Hero calls $100

Flop: ($325) 5, Q, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($325) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $222, Button calls $222

River: ($769) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $555, Button raises to $1655, Hero raises to $4703 (All-In), Button calls $2873 (All-In)

Total pot: $9825 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had A, 9 (flush, Ace high).
Hero had 10, K (flush, King high).
Outcome: Button won $9822

Villain is usually a short-stacker, though he occasionally buys in full. He's definitely borderline scared money when he does, but I still can't see how this isn't a shove on the river (even though I had a sick feeling when he raised and had to force my fingers not to be weak-tight). The only thing is that he may be weighted towards the nuts because of the flop check, which he's far more likely to do with Ace-high than with a random suited connector. But given what he had here, it seems plausible he would play 98s or 65s the same way. I don't know though, come to think of it, he probably still has more combinations of Axs pre-flop then lower flushes. Ugh, maybe this isn't a good shove either.

FTOPS NLHE Two-Day

I was not playing very well on Saturday, and it showed through in my results. I think I'm pretty good at letting bad beats and unlucky cards roll off my back, but I have a lot more trouble getting over a session where I played badly. Obviously a few mistakes can cost me quite a good deal of money, and it can be tilting to think how much could have been saved if I'd only...

Anyway, there were three key losses in these tournaments (I played the mini-FTOPS $250 as well). Here's how I busted from the $2500. I don't know for sure, and it's not particularly relevant, but I've heard that MP2 was Dmitri Nobles. I don't think this is awful, but it's not good either:

Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, 25/50 Blinds, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP2: 4,918
CO: 6,392
BTN: 2,862
SB: 6,260
Hero (BB): 4,310
UTG: 11,155
UTG+1: 2,120
UTG+2: 10,217
MP1: 11,918

Pre-Flop: (75) K A dealt to Hero (BB)
4 folds, MP2 raises to 150, CO calls 150, 2 folds, Hero raises to 750, MP2 folds, CO calls 600

Flop: (1,675) Q 2 T (2 Players)
Hero bets 660, CO calls 660

Turn: (2,995) 9 (2 Players)
Hero bets 2,900 and is All-In, CO calls 2,900

River: (8,795) 7 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 8,795 Pot
CO showed Q Q (three of a kind, Queens) and WON 8,795 (+4,485 NET)
Hero showed K A (Ace King high) and LOST (-4,310 NET)


This one, which cost me a big stack in the $250, may look the worst, but actually I think I would play it the same again:

Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, 40/80 Blinds, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG+2: 8,807
MP1: 6,110
MP2: 3,765
CO: 3,755
Hero (BTN): 10,244
SB: 3,640
BB: 6,201
UTG: 5,675
UTG+1: 13,823

Pre-Flop: (120) A Q dealt to Hero (BTN)
3 folds, MP1 raises to 240, 2 folds, Hero calls 240, SB folds, BB calls 160

Flop: (760) 7 A K (3 Players)
BB checks, MP1 bets 400, Hero calls 400, BB folds

Turn: (1,560) 7 (2 Players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks

River: (1,560) J (2 Players)
MP1 bets 640, Hero raises to 9,604 and is All-In, MP1 calls 4,830 and is All-In

Results: 12,500 Pot
MP1 showed 8 9 (a flush, King high) and WON 12,500 (+6,390 NET)
Hero showed A Q (two pair, Aces and Sevens) and LOST (-6,110 NET)


It's very unlikely my hand is good on the river, but there's good reason to think Villain is on something like AJ/KJ. The river shove is a bit of an overbet, but that may be what it takes to get a bad player off of two pair. They perceive a huge difference, perhaps not wrongly, between a lot of their chips and all of their chips. It sucks that he had a flush, but there's really very little reason to think he can call a shove here.

This one, on the other hand, is shamefully bad:

Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, 50/100 Blinds, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG+1: 8,687
MP1: 12,300
MP2: 3,795
CO: 2,115
Hero (BTN): 3,705
SB: 11,181
BB: 11,110
UTG: 9,127

Pre-Flop: (150) T T dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to 300, 3 folds, Hero calls 300, 2 folds

Flop: (750) 8 3 7 (2 Players)
UTG+1 bets 400, Hero calls 400

Turn: (1,550) 7 (2 Players)
UTG+1 bets 1,000, Hero raises to 3,005 and is All-In, UTG+1 calls 2,005

River: (7,560) A (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 7,560 Pot
UTG+1 showed Q Q (two pair, Queens and Sevens) and WON 7,560 (+3,855 NET)
Hero showed T T (two pair, Tens and Sevens) and LOST (-3,705 NET)


I've seen Villain overvalue hands before, but that's no justification for this.

1K WSOP Satellite

Played the 1K WSOP satellite on Stars tonight. There were 21 runners, meaning 2 seats and a lot of cash paid out. I came into the final table in second place, and had the lead by the time we got down to 5. I was running roughshod over everyone, and with four left I had as many chips as the other three combined. I definitely felt I was the strongest of the remaining players, but there were two other guys (none of whom I recognized) who seemed to get satellite strategy pretty well and one guy who was awful. One of the good players busted the other, so we got down to 3-handed with me and the other good player in a substantial lead.

At some point the fish doubled through him, which wasn't ideal (I'd prefer the fish to bust and lock up my seat) but certainly an improvement. I took a shot at busting the now-short good player, but it didn't end well:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1000+$50 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 100 Ante (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) (t36843)
SB (t39582)
BB (t16575)

Hero's M: 24.56

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 10
Hero bets t1600, SB calls t1200, BB raises to t16475 (All-In), Hero raises to t31350, 1 fold

Flop: (t34850) 9, K, J (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t34850) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t34850) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t34850

Results:
Hero had 10, 10 (one pair, tens).
BB had J, K (two pair, Kings and Jacks).
Outcome: BB won t3485


I'm not 100% sure about this call. My range for raising the button here is like top 85%, and the fish is calling way wider than he should. I doubt he ever has a hand that calls a shove. If I am BB I am shoving any two here, and while he may not be quite that wide, he'd certainly shown a willingness to take advantage of good resteal spots before.

Then again, it sucks to gamble with the chiplead when three seats pay. But fishy as SB was, he was smart enough not to play a lot of big pots. It wasn't as though I was going to sit back and watch the two of them automatically butt heads. I wouldn't have called for all my chips, but since the worst case scenario is just that I have to hack it out, I went for it.

I did indeed manage to steal and then eventually double my way back into the chiplead, thanks to some godawful play from fishy:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1000+$50 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 100 Ante (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) (t26068)
Button (t33182)
SB (t33750)

Hero's M: 17.38

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, A
Button bets t1600, 1 fold, Hero calls t800

Flop: (t3900) 10, 10, 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t1600, Hero raises to t3200, Button calls t1600

Turn: (t10300) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets t5555, Button calls t5555

River: (t21410) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets t11111, Button raises to t22222, Hero calls t4502 (All-In)

Total pot: t52636

Results:
Button had 7, 5 (full house, fives over tens).
Hero had 10, A (full house, tens over fives).
Outcome: Hero won t52636

Obviously I played this in a pretty non-standard way. Basically he had zero hand-reading skill and didn't like to fold. So I didn't worry about what I was representing but just tried to lay him the price that I felt would make me the most overall. On the river, I was still putting him on something less than a monster and figured he would be far more inclined to call less than all in than to call all in. Shockingly, he did the work for me with a low full house. I was also assuming that he'd be crippled whether I got the maximum or not, but that proved not to be true:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1000+$50 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 100 Ante (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) (t53636)
SB (t6214)
BB (t33150)

Hero's M: 35.76

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, A
Hero bets t1600, SB raises to t6114 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls t4514

Flop: (t13328) J, Q, K (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t13328) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t13328) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t13328

Results:
Hero had Q, A (one pair, Queens).
SB had K, 10 (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: SB won t13328

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1000+$50 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 100 Ante (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) (t48022)
BB (t13228)
Button (t31750)

Hero's M: 32.01

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, J
Button bets t2200, Hero calls t1800, BB calls t1400

Flop: (t6900) A, 4, 2 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, Button bets t3200, Hero calls t3200, BB calls t3200

Turn: (t16500) 8 (3 players)
Hero bets t2222, BB calls t2222, 1 fold

River: (t20944) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets t40300 (All-In), BB calls t5506 (All-In)

Total pot: t31956

Results:
Hero had A, J (two pair, Aces and eights).
BB had 10, 9 (flush, Ace high).
Outcome: BB won t31956

On the turn I'm hoping to get it in with the fishy short stack and get the big stack out from behind me. On the river, I'm pretty sure he hit the flush, but at this point I don't think check-folding is an option, so value betting is best. Sucks, but what are you gonna do?


Finally, I had to take yet another coin flip against the good player:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1000+$50 Tournament, 600/1200 Blinds 150 Ante (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) (t25662)
BB (t30274)
Button (t37064)

Hero's M: 11.41

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 9
Button bets t3000, Hero raises to t25512 (All-In), 1 fold, Button calls t22512

Flop: (t52674) 10, 10, K (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t52674) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t52674) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t52674

Results:
Button had K, A (two pair, Kings and tens).
Hero had 9, 9 (two pair, tens and nines).
Outcome: Button won t52674


Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand I snatched a bubble from the jaws of victory. :-(

Gross Spot Vs. Peter Eastgate

Yesterday, PeteEastgate was sitting at something like 8 25/50 tables on Stars. After confirming that this was the actual 2009 WSOP Champion and not some clever shark impersonating a tourney donk, I hopped on a few of the tables to try my luck. It was indeed trying:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($5122)
BB ($7944)
UTG ($5223)
MP ($15570)
CO ($5000)
Hero (Button) ($5824)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, 4
1 fold, MP bets $150, 1 fold, Hero calls $150, 2 folds

Flop: ($375) 2, 9, 4 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($375) 9 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $222, MP raises to $850, Hero calls $628

River: ($2075) 4 (2 players)
MP bets $14570 (All-In), Hero calls $4824 (All-In)

Total pot: $11723 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero mucked 4, 4 (four of a kind, fours).
MP had 9, 9 (four of a kind, nines).
Outcome: MP won $11720


I've made four or five royal flushes in my lifetime, but I'm pretty sure this is the first time I've been on either end of quads vs. quads. The worst part is that it's actually pretty tough to put him on anything but better quads given the way he played it. Not that I'm about to lose sleep over paying off with quads, but still.

It was even more frustrating coming on the heels of this, which was not against Eastgate:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($13257)
MP ($15487)
CO ($5000)
Button ($8292)
Hero (SB) ($5000)
BB ($6147)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, 10
UTG bets $150, MP calls $150, 1 fold, Button calls $150, Hero raises to $750, 1 fold, UTG calls $600, MP calls $600, Button calls $600

Flop: ($3050) 10, Q, 6 (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP bets $1725, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4250 (All-In), 1 fold, MP calls $2525

Turn: ($11550) K (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($11550) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $11550 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 10, 10 (three of a kind, tens).
MP had Q, Q (three of a kind, Queens).
Outcome: MP won $11547

Well, this was not exactly not against Eastgate. He was the initial raiser, but not the guy who cold decked me. I'm actually a little surprised that the QQ didn't re-squeeze pre-flop. I'm pretty sure I would have stacked off anyway, and his hand's going to be a bitch to play in a multiway pot post-flop. Unless he flops set over set, of course.

Anyway, from what I could tell Eastgate was pretty solid. While I'm not yet convinced that he's 25/50 material, he had respectable stacks on nearly every table he was on, and he certainly wasn't enough of a mark to justify my continuing to sit frustrated against other very good players.

FTOPS Event 11: $200 PLO8

I always look forward to the PLO8 events, but I couldn't get anything going. The opposition was beyond awful:

Full Tilt Poker Game #12159019788: FTOPS Event #11 (84242375), Table 41 - 20/40 - Pot Limit Omaha H/L - 14:20:39 ET - 2009/05/11
Seat 1: babbelz (1,028)
Seat 2: Sensor (8,220)
Seat 3: dav713 (4,859)
Seat 4: ayyaahh91 (4,755)
Seat 5: nrock23 (7,886)
Seat 6: thegrizz1111 (3,986)
Seat 7: Greengoz (5,000)
Seat 8: TPackage1 (4,531)
Seat 9: Foucault (4,735)
nrock23 posts the small blind of 20
thegrizz1111 posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Foucault [9s Ad 2d Ts]
TPackage1 folds
Foucault raises to 80
babbelz calls 80
Sensor folds
dav713 calls 80
ayyaahh91 folds
nrock23 folds
thegrizz1111 calls 40
*** FLOP *** [6d 6c 8d]
thegrizz1111 checks
Foucault checks
babbelz bets 170
dav713 has 15 seconds left to act
dav713 raises to 400
thegrizz1111 folds
Foucault has 15 seconds left to act
Foucault calls 400
babbelz raises to 948, and is all in
dav713 calls 548
Foucault calls 548
*** TURN *** [6d 6c 8d] [9h]
Foucault checks
dav713 bets 600
Foucault calls 600
*** RIVER *** [6d 6c 8d 9h] [3h]
Foucault checks
dav713 checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
dav713 shows [Jc 6h Qc Jh] three of a kind, Sixes, for high
Foucault shows [9s Ad 2d Ts] two pair, Nines and Sixes, for high and 8,6,3,2,A, for low
dav713 wins the high side pot (600) with three of a kind, Sixes
Foucault wins the low side pot (600) with 8,6,3,2,A
babbelz shows [2s 3c 8c Ac] two pair, Eights and Sixes, for high and 8,6,3,2,A, for low
dav713 wins the high main pot (1,592) with three of a kind, Sixes
Foucault ties for the low main pot (796) with 8,6,3,2,A
babbelz ties for the low main pot (796) with 8,6,3,2,A
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4,384 Main pot 3,184. Side pot 1,200. | Rake 0
Board: [6d 6c 8d 9h 3h]
Seat 1: babbelz showed [2s 3c 8c Ac] and won (796) with HI: two pair, Eights and Sixes; LO: 8,6,3,2,A
Seat 2: Sensor didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: dav713 showed [Jc 6h Qc Jh] and won (2,192) with HI: three of a kind, Sixes
Seat 4: ayyaahh91 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: nrock23 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: thegrizz1111 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 7: Greengoz is sitting out
Seat 8: TPackage1 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: Foucault showed [9s Ad 2d Ts] and won (1,396) with HI: two pair, Nines and Sixes; LO: 8,6,3,2,A


The flop was a really awkward spot for me, and I'm not at all confident that I played it well. Even with my huge draws, I should probably fold with a bet and raise in front me from competent players. Since neither of these guys managed to have trips, though, it worked out OK.

Here I managed to run a bluff, which is pretty rare in PLO8. I just don't think the guy check-calls anything too strong on the turn:

Full Tilt Poker Game #12160227503: FTOPS Event #11 (84242375), Table 70 - 80/160 - Pot Limit Omaha H/L - 15:31:59 ET - 2009/05/11
Seat 1: NoNotReally (6,997)
Seat 2: Foucault (3,974)
Seat 3: Cardsharps_net (4,982)
Seat 4: pycb (3,764)
Seat 5: Shivalingus (6,164)
Seat 6: ColdBryan (7,386)
Seat 7: clarsonx (5,030)
Seat 8: Magik4678 (3,366)
Seat 9: aabomb09 (2,405)
ColdBryan posts the small blind of 80
clarsonx posts the big blind of 160
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Foucault [As 4d 3c 2h]
Magik4678 calls 160
aabomb09 folds
NoNotReally has 15 seconds left to act
NoNotReally folds
Foucault has 15 seconds left to act
Foucault calls 160
Cardsharps_net folds
pycb folds
Shivalingus folds
ColdBryan folds
clarsonx checks
*** FLOP *** [Qc 5s Jc]
clarsonx checks
Magik4678 checks
Foucault has 15 seconds left to act
Foucault bets 269
clarsonx folds
Magik4678 calls 269
*** TURN *** [Qc 5s Jc] [6s]
Magik4678 checks
Foucault bets 1,098
Magik4678 calls 1,098
*** RIVER *** [Qc 5s Jc 6s] [9s]
Magik4678 checks
Foucault bets 2,447, and is all in
Magik4678 folds
Uncalled bet of 2,447 returned to Foucault
Foucault mucks
Foucault wins the pot (3,294)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3,294 | Rake 0
Board: [Qc 5s Jc 6s 9s]
Seat 1: NoNotReally didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Foucault collected (3,294), mucked
Seat 3: Cardsharps_net didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: pycb didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: Shivalingus (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: ColdBryan (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: clarsonx (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: Magik4678 folded on the River
Seat 9: aabomb09 didn't bet (folded)


This one I kinda spazzed out on. I didn't really want to fold for one pot-sized bet, and for some reason I decided it would be better to check and induce bluffs since he's not folding anything better. Stupid NLHE thinking to apply to PLO8. If I just pot the flop, I probably win it:

Full Tilt Poker Game #12160602843: FTOPS Event #11 (84242375), Table 70 - 100/200 - Pot Limit Omaha H/L - 15:52:05 ET - 2009/05/11
Seat 1: NoNotReally (6,489)
Seat 2: Foucault (2,673)
Seat 3: Cardsharps_net (5,718)
Seat 4: pycb (4,026)
Seat 5: Shivalingus (5,999)
Seat 6: ColdBryan (6,306)
Seat 7: clarsonx (6,950)
Seat 8: Magik4678 (3,802)
Seat 9: aabomb09 (2,105)
Foucault posts the small blind of 100
Cardsharps_net posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Foucault [Ah 8h 4c Ts]
pycb folds
Shivalingus folds
ColdBryan folds
clarsonx folds
Magik4678 folds
aabomb09 folds
NoNotReally folds
Foucault raises to 600
Cardsharps_net calls 400
*** FLOP *** [Jc Jh 3d]
Foucault checks
Cardsharps_net bets 1,200
Foucault has 15 seconds left to act
Foucault has requested TIME
Foucault raises to 2,073, and is all in
Cardsharps_net calls 873
Foucault shows [Ah 8h 4c Ts]
Cardsharps_net shows [5s Kc 6s Ac]
Cardsharps_net: nh
*** TURN *** [Jc Jh 3d] [3s]
*** RIVER *** [Jc Jh 3d 3s] [5d]
Foucault shows a pair of Jacks, for high
Cardsharps_net shows two pair, Jacks and Fives, for high
Cardsharps_net wins the pot (5,346) with two pair, Jacks and Fives
No low hand qualified
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5,346 | Rake 0
Board: [Jc Jh 3d 3s 5d]
Seat 1: NoNotReally (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Foucault (small blind) showed [Ah 8h 4c Ts] and lost with HI: a pair of Jacks
Seat 3: Cardsharps_net (big blind) showed [5s Kc 6s Ac] and won (5,346) with HI: two pair, Jacks and Fives
Seat 4: pycb didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: Shivalingus didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: ColdBryan didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: clarsonx didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: Magik4678 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: aabomb09 didn't bet (folded)

FTOPS Event 1: $200 6-Max

I donked my way out of this one with a quickness, lost my ass with QQ on a 972 board with two clubs. Worse, it was to a guy who'd previously called KJ on a J74 flop, potted the turn when I checked to him, then made a half pot bet on the river (I had KJ also). Thing is, although he was kinda overvaluing top pair, he didn't raise it on the flop. So when he did raise the 972, I probably shouldn't have lost 100+ BB's with QQ. Oh well.

Exhausting Heads Up Match

I was about halfway through last night's session, and a lot of the 6-max games I was in were kinda bad. I was at the end of a few long waiting lists, but mostly there just weren't many good games going at the time.

I'd been sitting alone, waiting for action as usual, at a few heads up tables. Really wanting to play some heads up, I got aggressive and tried to sit with a few people who were definitely going to sit out against me. They sat out. I sat with a few randoms. They mostly sat out, a few played long enough to look me up on OPR or whatever before sitting out, one played just his button and sat out (total douche move), and one played for a few minutes until I tried to sit at a second of his tables. Then he sat out on both.

I even tried sitting with a few regs who are probably better than I am, figuring I might as well challenge myself, but to my surprise even they sat out. Finally, a guy I recognized from higher stakes sat across from me at 10/20 deep. It had been over a year since we played heads up, but I've seen him as high as 50/100, and I am pretty confident he's solidly better than I am. After warning him that I not play for long, I sat in and we played one table of 10/20 and one of 5/10.

Again, I'm pretty sure he would have the edge long term. However, off the bat I think I knew more about how he was going to play than he did about me. He was extraordinarily aggressive, and I did some things to induce action that I don't think he was expecting. It takes a lot of concentration to deal with extreme aggression from a smart player, and after about 45 minutes, I was exhausted. I quit him and my other games, but I was up three buy-ins and felt I'd definitely gotten the better of him over that short match.

The thing about uber-aggressive opponents is that, at least when they're smart, you have to play very differently than you ordinarily would. You aren't going to induce bluffs just by checking and calling- you have to widen the range that you are going to check-raise, 3-bet, etc. for value and then be prepared to call down. A few examples:


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($6980)
Button ($4060)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, J
Button bets $60, Hero raises to $222, Button calls $162

Flop: ($444) 10, 3, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $333, Button raises to $827, Hero raises to $1321, Button calls $494

Turn: ($3086) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $5437 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $3086 | Rake: $0.50


In this one, the "standard" play would probably be to make a big, pot committing 4-bet. Against this guy, though, my overs and nut flush draw is a big enough monster that I'm actually trying to induce a shove from him. I actually think it was a mistake for me to shove the turn (for like $2400 in reality- I had him well covered) rather than check-call. There's a chance he's trying to showdown something like 77, though he's probably calling turn with that anyway, but most likely is that he's either floating or has a monster. Obviously the money goes in no matter what if he has a monster, so I ought to have induced another bluff from his floats, especially when I turn the gutshot.

In this next one, I check-call flop with an underpair to the board, then lead into him on the turn to induce a bluff raise. Otherwise, I don't think he barrels this card; my hand looks too much like a bluff-catcher:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($8795.50)
Button ($4057.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6, 6
Button bets $60, Hero calls $40

Flop: ($120) 9, 8, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $100, Hero calls $100

Turn: ($320) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $188, Button raises to $650, Hero calls $462

River: ($1620) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Total pot: $1620 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Button had Q, J (two pair, eights and twos).
Hero had 6, 6 (two pair, eights and sixes).
Outcome: Hero won $1619.50


Here I check-raise the flop for value with Ace-high, then check-call to induce from his floats. Guys like this do not give up easily on dry boards:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($3620.50)
Button ($2378)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, A
Button bets $30, Hero calls $20

Flop: ($60) 6, 6, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $40, Hero raises to $120, Button calls $80

Turn: ($300) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $150, Hero calls $150

River: ($600) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Total pot: $600 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Button had Q, 8 (three of a kind, sixes).
Hero had 10, A (three of a kind, sixes).
Outcome: Hero won $599.50


I was actually planning on checking this down on the river or turning it into a bluff and shoving if he bet again, but he didn't give me the chance:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($9195.50)
SB ($4428.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, J
Hero bets $60, SB raises to $220, Hero calls $160

Flop: ($440) 8, 5, 3 (2 players)
SB bets $288, Hero calls $288

Turn: ($1016) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $711, Hero calls $711

River: ($2438) K (2 players)
SB bets $3209.50 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $2438 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB didn't show
Outcome: SB won $2437.50


I think it's very likely he's overbetting for value, because the way he's been playing he expects to get looked up light but probably not for me to raise much on the river if he makes a normal-sized bet. If this is how he's playing his monsters, then it makes my plan to shove over a smaller bet even better.

This was the closest decision I had over the course of the match:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($4747)
SB ($4020)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 9
Hero bets $60, SB raises to $220, Hero raises to $522, SB calls $302

Flop: ($1044) 6, A, 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1044) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $744, Hero calls $744

River: ($2532) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $2754 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $2532 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB didn't show
Outcome: SB won $2531.50


A lot could be going on here. The thing is that when I check back the flop, it really looks like I'm planning on calling down. I could also have KK or QQ, though, so there's a chance he's trying to bluff me off those or maybe even value bet against with a worse Ace. I think as long as I also check back and then call down stuff like AK and AA, and of course if he bluffs club rivers, then this is an OK fold.

April

I won and lost a lot of money in April. I finished the month with a decent though not spectacular bottom line, but given what I spent on tournament buy-ins (thank you very much, SCOOP), I'm impressed that I was up at all.

Resolution One: Keep Grinding NLHE Cash Games

Goal 1: Earn $X in NLHE Cash Games

Getting very close (to being on track, that is). If I can maintain this rate for the rest of the year, I'll be happy. And if I manage a respectable tournament score to boot....

Goal 2: Earn Supernova status on PokerStars

I'm well on track now. The SCOOP was worth a lot of VPPs, so I'm glad I grinded up to Platinum last month. Were I to hit Supernova in the next two months, which I won't, I'd be eligible for a free suite upgrade at the Palms during my WSOP trip.

Then again, this goal is going to a breeze now that Stars is offering 100,000 VPPs to their satellite qualifiers who actually play in the WSOP main event. Now I all have to do is win one of their damn satellites.

Resolution Two: Diversify My Income Streams

Goal 3: Monetize This Blog

Baby steps. In case you missed them this month, I wrote a review of Deke Castleman's Whale Hunt in the Desert and pimped some ways to get your The Wire fix. If I ever get my act properly together, I may have a few advertisers soon.

Goal 4: Get Back Into Coaching

As of last night, I'm more than halfway through my first group session. I'm very happy with how it's going, but that's got a lot to do with the individual students who comprise the group. With a well-chosen group, though, I think this model has great potential to provide affordable coaching for smaller stakes players while still getting me fair compensation for my time.

Goal 5: Market My Writing

There's a fun little development here that's a 99% done deal, but I'll wait to announce it until I know for sure. Be warned, though, that it's only going to be genuinely useful to a very small fraction of my readers. I think it's cool though.

In the meantime, check out my interview with Part Time Poker.

Resolution Three: Improve My NLHE Skills

Goal 6: Use Poker Tracker More Effectively

I played with a HUD up over the weekend for the first time in weeks, but I just didn't find myself using it much at all. Of course, as soon as I turned it off, a spot came up where I did actually want to see some numbers. All in all, though, it still feels like more of a distraction when I'm multi-tabling. I do want to at least use Poker Tracker for more self-analysis of my game.

Goal 7: Finish the Year with a 4BB/100 Win-Rate at 5/10 NL.

I'm currently at a not-too-impressive 1.32 BB/100 over 86,065 hands. The best way to get this up will probably be to play more 5/10 Heads Up, where I'm currently scoring better than 10 BB/100 over 10K hands.

Goal 8: Play 50,000 Hands of Heads Up NLHE

I've logged just under 20K hands so far, at a 4.11 BB/100 win rate. No wonder it's getting tougher and tougher to find action. Also of note: I'm currently working on a Heads Up series for Poker Savvy Plus.

61st in the FTP 750K

God I hate fucking tournaments. Been playing since 4:30, made it deep in yet another Sunday tournament, and out to another bad beat. Granted, it was a pretty thin spot, but that makes it only moderately less annoying. I had about 12 BB's, and action folded to a pretty successful Pocket Fiver in the SB. He open shoved into my K7.

A good tournament player, especially a P5'er, especially a guy who may not recognize me as a knowledgeable player, especially when the table's been active and there haven't been many steal opportunities, is going to have any two cards here. I called, and indeed he had J9.

I covered my face with my hands, then peaked through them at the screen. I was pretty sure I was going to see a J-high flop. Instead, just to ruin any suspense, it was T87. There was no running full house for me.

At least I won't have cause to play any more tournaments on FTP any time soon....

Time to Go Shopping for Skirts

...because I am a little girl:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($7241)
CO ($5985)
Button ($925)
Hero (SB) ($15829)
BB ($12367)
UTG ($6770)
UTG+1 ($5322)
MP1 ($8295.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 8
3 folds, MP2 bets $100, 2 folds, Hero raises to $400, BB calls $350, MP2 calls $300

Flop: ($1200) 6, 5, 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $789, BB raises to $2000, 1 fold, Hero folds

Total pot: $2778 | Rake: $3

Results:
BB didn't show
Outcome: BB won $2775


I'm not sure what's best here (obviously), but I can't believe I'm supposed to fold this. MP2 is pretty aggro, so it's not impossible that the BB blatted a big pair hoping to induce a squeeze, but i kinda doubt he's showing up here with anything that really kills me, which I guess would just be a made straight. My equity against a set is nearly the same as it is against an overpair, something like 20-25%. I wonder if he's ever raise-folding a slightly better pair, like 99 or TT?

There are a ton of "worse" hands I'd rather shove than 88, but still, I think this is ridiculously weak. I'm pretty sure my fold was not unrelated to a fear of losing $12K, and thankfully I did leave the table not too long after. The game was good, but it wasn't that good.

Hand Reading Made Simple

My latest poker strategy article, Hand Reading Made Simple, is now appearing in the May 2009 edition of 2+2 Magazine:

The basic idea behind this simplified hand reading technique is not to put an opponent on an exact hand or two-card combination but rather to narrow his range down to one or two of three broad categories:

Monster hands- These are the hands where your opponent wants to play a big pot. That doesn't mean he'll bet or raise at every opportunity- some players love to slowplay- but it means that he is confident that his hand is best and that there are plenty of worse hands that will pay him off.

Showdown hands- In these cases, your opponent believes he has the best hand, but he is not trying to build the pot. Usually players will exercise pot control with these hands, checking when they can and calling when they have to. Some may make small bets or raises as blocking bets or to "see where they're at".

Drawing/bluffing hands- Drawing hands are hands that need to improve or bluff to have a reasonable expectation of winning the pot. This refers not just to obvious draws such as four to a flush but to any hand which currently has little or not showdown value. Depending on their play style and the value of the draw, players may play drawing hands fast or slow.

You'll find further description of this technique, along with some example applications, in the article.

Go Back to 25/50, Ansky

Dani Stern, my fellow Poker Savvy Plus pro perhaps better known as Ansky, is one of the players whose game I respect the most. I love watching his videos, and I hate playing at his tables. Thus, I am more than a little upset that he's been "slumming it" in the 5/10 and 10/20 games of late.

Then again, playing against a great player can be a fun challenge that forces you to step up your own game. At least that's how it started out:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($2305.50)
Button ($5576)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 8
Button bets $30, Hero calls $20

Flop: ($60) J, 9, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($60) K (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($60) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $40, Hero raises to $120, 1 fold

Total pot: $140 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero didn't show 8, 8 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $139.50


In general, I've found that people don't bluff nearly as often as they should when there is four or five to a straight on the board. The thing is that even when you are called, you usually chop the pot, so it's a very low-risk bluff. Still, I get shown a (better) straight way too often when I do look people up.

Ansky, of course, is an exception. I think that he will, appropriately, bet 100% of his range when I check it to him here. Further, I think he probably will not give me credit for being able to check-raise bluff in this kind of random spot.

This next hand is the one I'm most proud of. Ansky is the SB. The key to this hand is that I've seen Ansky cold call three-bets from out of the blinds with medium pocket pairs, so his range here is wider than you might think:


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($2000)
Button ($637)
SB ($2005)
BB ($2391)
Hero (UTG) ($2590)
MP ($2000)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, A
Hero bets $20, MP raises to $70, 2 folds, SB calls $65, 1 fold, Hero raises to $290, MP calls $220, SB calls $220

Flop: ($880) K, 10, 8 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $444, 1 fold, SB calls $444

Turn: ($1768) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($1768) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1856 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $1768 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn't show J, A (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $1765


To the extent that there's a golden opportunity for a 4-bet squeeze play, this is pretty close to it. Both Villains have wide-ish ranges, and the cold call will probably scare the original 3-better. Plus, with stacks as deep as they are, I still have room to get creative post-flop.

The other neat thing about this hand is the turn check. I was planning on shoving a lot of turns, but this was a pretty awful one. Obviously it's much harder to represent the K when another one comes.

It's very unlikely, though, that Ansky checks the top of his range to me on the river. It looks like I'm either giving up on a bluff or trying to check down a modest hand, so if he's got a big hand, I expect him to shove the river.

Having excluded the top of his range, I have to wonder how many of his "cheap showdown" hands call a river shove. Given my above assumptions, my shove is going to look pretty strong. He may think that if I needed to bluff, I would have done it on the turn, and that if I have showdown value, I would often opt just to check it down. Thus, I'm counting on my hand looking like a monster to him.

Of course, just as I am feeling pretty proud of myself, he goes and does this:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($1776)
BB ($2766)
UTG ($1253)
MP ($2262.25)
Hero (CO) ($2463)
Button ($6596)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, 9
2 folds, Hero bets $35, Button calls $35, 2 folds

Flop: ($85) J, 2, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $66, Button calls $66

Turn: ($217) K (2 players)
Hero bets $144, Button calls $144

River: ($505) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $388, Button raises to $6351 (All-In), Hero calls $1830 (All-In)

Total pot: $4941 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 9, A (flush, Ace high).
Hero had K, 9 (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: Button won $4938


Obviously he backed into an unlikely monster here, making it a great spot for an overbet shove on the river. I generally don't beat myself up over paying off the very top of a guy's range, but here it's hard for me to imagine him showing up without the goods. If he wants to bluff, there's really no reason for him to overbet the pot. A pot-sized or smaller raise would entail less risk and potentially represent a wider range, since it could more plausibly represent thin value from something like a set. But gah, who knows. This is why it sucks having good players on your left...

7% Return on Losses

I was sitting at two decent HSNL tables yesterday with the same very good player, and happened to stack him at both tables. At 25/50, he cold 4-bet TT and called my 5-bet shove. I had AA. At 10/20, he 3-bet 98s, I flatted with KK, we got it in on a 876 flop, and I won the flip.

He sounded like he'd had a rough week and was pretty tilted, started telling me I was terrible and trying to get me to play him heads up. As much as I complain about how nobody at 5/10 will play me, the truth is that I am also pretty nitty about only playing heads up against people I think I hae an edge on. I don't have a ton of experience with this particular player, but he sits waiting for action at 25/50 and seems solid enough, so it's a good bet that he's better than I am.

Long story short, he offered me a 5% return on losses to play him. When I declined, he offered 7%. Now, there were some reasons I didn't want to play him anyway. We didn't get into terms, but he discussed it with another player, and wanted to play at least 3 tables of 25/50 for at least 1 hour. Although I will take shots when the games are good, I don't actually have enough money on stars to play those stakes habitually. Plus, in order to focus, I'd probably have to quit most or all of the other games I was playing, some of which were reasonably good.

I'm curious, though, what a 7% return on losses is really worth. Obviously it's worth nothing if I'm up on the session. If we were equally likely to finish up, then it would be worth a 3.5% edge. But if he is a bit better than I am, then he's presumably somewhat more likely to finish up on the session, so maybe it's worth something like 4%?

I guess it could even affect my strategy, as the ideal one for me would produce distribution of outcomes with a few big wins and many small losses. Perhaps it would be correct to play a few more speculative hands, chase a few more draws, etc.

I'm very curious what you math-types think (ie looking to hear from you here, brue). If opportunity cost and online bankroll weren't issues, how much of an edge would this guy need to make his offer profitable? How, if at all, should my play change as a result of this arrangement?

SCOOP Main Event

I played all three tournaments: the $10K, the $1K, and the $100. Each was what I expected it to be. The $100 was monkeylicious. The 1K was soft enough for the buyin, certainly weaker play than would be found at a 5/10 cash table or a weekly 1K tournament. The 10K was fairly tough, maybe even a bit tougher than I'd expected. At least at my table, the closet thing to a soft spot was P5's donkamenteur BelowAbove.

Actually, at my first table, Ahhh Snap was making life hell from my immediate left. Thankfully, that one broke quickly. I still never got anything going, and eventually lost two coin flips plus chopped JJ to Below's AJ to bust.

I got off to a solid start in the 1K, and there were a few interesting hands. This first one was against wpr101, who I see a lot at the Stars MSNL full ring tables:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1000+$50 Tournament, 40/80 Blinds (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t11530)
Hero (MP1) (t10850)
MP2 (t12305)
CO (t4930)
Button (t7215)
SB (t11790)
BB (t21380)

Hero's M: 90.42

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, J
1 fold, Hero bets t200, 1 fold, CO calls t200, 3 folds

Flop: (t520) 10, 8, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets t350, CO raises to t1040, Hero raises to t10650 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: t2600

Results:
Hero didn't show A, J (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t2600


This was probably my favorite one, against this total spaz on my left who was calling every raise I made pre-flop and then monkeying around post-flop. Actually wait lemme show you why he pissed me off first:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1000+$50 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds 20 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 (t12200)
Hero (CO) (t11676)
Button (t3845)
SB (t9220)
BB (t5106)
UTG (t11047)
UTG+1 (t17329)
MP1 (t13090)
MP2 (t22901)

Hero's M: 28.83

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, A
5 folds, Hero bets t411, Button calls t411, 2 folds

Flop: (t1227) 4, A, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: (t1227) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t795, Button calls t795

River: (t2817) J (2 players)
Hero bets t10450 (All-In), Button calls t2619 (All-In)

Total pot: t8055

Results:
Button had J, 8 (two pair, Jacks and eights).
Hero had 9, A (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: Button won t8055


Note that he's calling off more than 10% of his stack pre-flop. It's not like shoving the river here is superawesome, but given stack sizes and this guy's general spazziness, I do think it was best. So here was my revenge:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1000+$50 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds 20 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 (t11795)
Hero (CO) (t7485)
Button (t13288)
SB (t3124)
BB (t5505)
UTG (t13686)
UTG+1 (t21760)
MP1 (t10240)
MP2 (t19531)

Hero's M: 18.48

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, 3
5 folds, Hero bets t411, Button calls t411, 2 folds

Flop: (t1227) 4, 9, 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t450, Hero calls t450

Turn: (t2127) K (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t995, Hero raises to t3604, 1 fold

Total pot: t4117

Results:
Hero didn't show A, 3 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t4117


I didn't hold on to those chips for long though:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1000+$50 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds 20 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 (t12445)
Hero (CO) (t11706)
Button (t9001)
SB (t20490)
BB (t5100)
UTG (t13031)
UTG+1 (t24034)
MP1 (t13180)
MP2 (t18127)

Hero's M: 28.90

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7, A
3 folds, MP2 bets t399, 1 fold, Hero calls t399, 2 folds, BB calls t249

Flop: (t1452) 9, J, K (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets t900, Hero calls t900, BB calls t900

Turn: (t4152) 6 (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets t1888, 1 fold, MP2 raises to t3776, Hero calls t1888

River: (t11704) 3 (2 players)
MP2 bets t13032 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: t11704

Results:
MP2 didn't show
Outcome: MP2 won t11704

BB was wpr101 again, I don't know who MP2 was. It's pretty obvious he has something betting into two of us on this flop, and being in position, I thought calling would be more profitable than trying to raise him off it. When wpr just calls, given his stack size, it seems very likely he has just a draw. I can't see how he wouldn't shove a made hand he wanted to go with or a strong draw.

I also didn't expect that MP2 would check a super strong hand (like KJ or better) on the turn with two of us still in the pot and a lot of draws on board. So, I went for the bluff, which admittedly probably is relying on him making something of a big fold. I really didn't expect a check-raise, but at least he gave me odds to chase. River- what can I do?

It's quite rare for me to open limp in a tournament, but I've been adding that into my full ring cash game, and this seemed like a good spot for it. Depending on who raised, I was probably going to re-raise, but this guy had been really loose passive, so I decided just to call. I was pretty shocked/pissed about what he showed down:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1000+$50 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 25 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t12875)
Hero (UTG) (t6536)
UTG+1 (t8476)
MP1 (t20320)
MP2 (t12603)
MP3 (t13747)
CO (t27939)
Button (t12785)
SB (t24461)

Hero's M: 12.45

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, 9
Hero calls t200, 3 folds, MP3 bets t600, 4 folds, Hero calls t400

Flop: (t1725) 5, J, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t1000, Hero calls t1000

Turn: (t3725) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks

River: (t3725) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t1800, Hero calls t1800

Total pot: t7325

Results:
Hero mucked 9, 9 (flush, Queen high).
MP3 had J, 7 (flush, Queen high).
Outcome: MP3 won t7325


The same guy busted me a few hands later when I once again got 99, open shoved, and lost a flip to his AQs.

The $100 was full of terrible play, and I ran up a huge stack just playing big hands. People were strangely aggressive, doing stuff like 4-bet shoving QTo over my button re-raise (I had AK). I shouldn't talk, though, as I kind of monkeyed off my own stack after busting from the big tournies, randomly shoving JTo from the SB over a CO open from a guy who'd just called a big shove the hand before with 55. This time he had AA.

Stupid SCOOP. I am so ready to be done with tournaments for a while. Too bad FTOPS is in less than a month. I may not play that as aggressively as I have in the past.

SCOOP Event 21: Heads Up NLHE

I didn't play the $25K, but the $2500 was plenty big enough for me. Emily and I even rearranged Easter brunch plans so that I could play it, which turned out to be a huge disappointment, as I lasted fewer than ten minutes against AJKHoosier1, my first round opponent. Obviously one of the most respected tournament players online was no slouch, but he also seemed to be running pretty hot. To wit:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2500+$100 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) (t4975)
Button (t5025)

Hero's M: 66.33

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3, K
Button bets t100, Hero calls t50

Flop: (t200) 6, 2, J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t125, Hero calls t125

Turn: (t450) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: (t450) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets t250, Button calls t250

Total pot: t950

Results:
Button had J, 4 (two pair, Jacks and sixes).
Hero had 3, K (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: Button won t950


This might not seem like "running hot", but the outcome of run-of-the-mill spots like this often determine the winner of a heads up tournament between two good players. The variance is through the room. This is just a standard spot where his range ought to be ridiculously wide, I turn my hand into a bluff on the river to knock out Ax and better Kx, and he has top pair.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2500+$100 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) (t3175)
SB (t6825)

Hero's M: 42.33

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 9
Hero bets t150, SB calls t100

Flop: (t300) Q, 10, 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t300) 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t125, SB raises to t450, Hero calls t325

River: (t1200) 7 (2 players)
SB bets t950, Hero folds

Total pot: t1200

Results:
SB didn't show
Outcome: SB won t1200


Obviously didn't get to see his hand here, so I may just have been outplayed, but based on his timing and just generally how he plays, I'm pretty sure he had it.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2500+$100 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) (t4525)
Button (t5475)

Hero's M: 60.33

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, Q
Button bets t100, Hero calls t50

Flop: (t200) Q, A, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t125, Hero calls t125

Turn: (t450) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t325, Hero calls t325

River: (t1100) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t750, Hero calls t750

Total pot: t2600

Results:
Button had 8, Q (flush, Ace high).
Hero mucked J, Q (flush, Ace high).
Outcome: Button won t2600


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2500+$100 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) (t2925)
SB (t7075)

Hero's M: 39.00

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K
Hero bets t100, SB calls t50

Flop: (t200) 2, Q, 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t200) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t125, SB raises to t440, Hero raises to t1010, SB raises to t6975 (All-In), Hero calls t1815 (All-In)

River: (t5850) 6 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t5850

Results:
Hero had A, K (one pair, Aces).
SB had 5, 5 (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: SB won t5850


Honestly, this last one might have been a little tilty, though it's obviously a shit spot. I was trying to get him to 4-bet shove a draw on the turn, which I doubt he does.

In the $250, I draw a Round 1 Bye, which is pretty crazy considering that I'm pretty sure only one person out of the 1500+ field got one. In Round 2, I drew the curiously named Roothlus2. A quick google revealed that his last name is Levy, leading me to conclude that he is likely the brother of Adam "Roothlus" Levy. I say brother and not multi-account because he was way weaker than the real Roothlus, and I polished him off pretty handily.

My Round 3 opponent wasn't super-tough either, but he was better at making small bluffs than randoms usually are and I didn't adapt well. I never really caught the cards I wanted to play back at him, and eventually we got pretty shallow with him having a substantial chiplead. I open jammed KJs for about 12BB, he called with A5, and the flop came K52, giving me some hope of doubling back up to even, but the turn 5 drove the nail into the coffin.

SCOOP Event 17: NLHE 1R1A

This was a pretty cool event, with one of the deepest structures in the SCOOP. The buy-in sizes were a little awkward for me, though, and I ended up playing only the $200, figuring that the $20 was too small and the $2000 (effectively $6000 with the rebuy and addon) was more than I wanted to put up on a random tournament with a pretty tough field.

My opponents in the $200 were no slouches, certainly better than what I'm looking for in a $200 donkament. I was up against people like teacuppoker, ADZ, utreg, and Mattsuspect. Even though I lasted about five hours in the tournament, there really wasn't much in the way of interesting hands. It was a full ring tournament with some solid competition, so I was mostly just playing good hands and making cheap bluffs when I could. Showing pretty good discipline, considering how I usually play in these things, I guess.

I ended up limp-shoving 98s in the SB for 30BBs against MattSuspect, who (correctly) snap-called with 55. Even though I flopped a gutshot and flush draw to go with my two overs, and turned a double gutter, I couldn't get there on the river. Tournaments suck.

SCOOP Event 14: 6-Max NLHE ($5000)

I had some fierce competition in this one, but I guess that's to be expected in a 5K. There was dpeters17, Timex, psyduck, and Poker Savvy's very own Christian "charder30" Harder, but the player who ended up giving me the most trouble was a Pocket Fivers guy named Wretchy. I don't think this was because Wretchy was the best of these players- quite the opposite- but he did make hands at the right times against me (or pull off some very well-timed bluffs, in which case there's egg on my face, but I'm pretty sure he had it).

The first big pot he won off of me, he flopped top pair top kicker and I flopped the nut flush draw in a multi-way pot. Unfortunately, that meant he had my Ace dominated, so I was drawing to fewer outs than I expected, and I didn't get there. None of the rest were that clean. I think this line is actually OK on my part and may have saved me some money:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $5000+$200 Tournament, 40/80 Blinds (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t7804)
SB (t6930)
BB (t15071)
UTG (t4438)
Hero (MP) (t7982)
CO (t9352)

Hero's M: 66.52

Preflop: Hero is MP with 10, 10
1 fold, Hero bets t160, 1 fold, Button calls t160, SB raises to t777, 1 fold, Hero calls t617, 1 fold

Flop: (t1794) 3, 6, 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t555, SB raises to t1888, Hero calls t1333

Turn: (t5570) 5 (2 players)
SB bets t1999, Hero folds

Total pot: t5570


As long as I'm making this same flop bet-call with stuff like AA and trips, which I absolutely am, then I think this is a pretty effective way of playing TT. It has the potential to induce calls from worse and sometimes even spazzy bluffs (though hopefully not here!). It sucks, but I seriously doubt Wretchy is sophisticated enough to have a bluff here.

Then there was this smaller one where he took me off a hand. For some reason I had a feeling he was gonna 4-bet, but I sucked it up and 3-bet anyway:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $5000+$200 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds 10 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP (t6360)
CO (t8621)
Button (t14288)
SB (t16510)
Hero (BB) (t9682)
UTG (t9064)

Hero's M: 46.10

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, A
2 folds, CO bets t233, 2 folds, Hero raises to t699, CO raises to t1888, 1 fold

Total pot: t1508


For better or for worse, I probably would have shoved AQs here. I dunno, I just don't see tourney regs 4-betting without the goods very often, particularly when the 4-bet is less than all in. Then again, BelowAbove was cheering for this dude in chat, so who knows. Maybe I just don't play enough of the bigger buy-in weekly tournies to know what the regs are up to these days.

My bustout hand was another in my neverending series of "Goddammit this is not a cash game!" hands. This is maaaaybe an OK line against someone who is gonna float and bluff turns, but that's just not who I'm likely to be up against here. Even the 3-bet is pretty questionable, I think:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $5000+$200 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds 10 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP (t8670)
CO (t18710)
Button (t14753)
SB (t10410)
Hero (BB) (t8608)
UTG (t3374)

Hero's M: 40.99

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, 10
1 fold, MP bets t275, 3 folds, Hero raises to t888, MP calls t613

Flop: (t1886) 2, 7, K (2 players)
Hero bets t910, MP calls t910

Turn: (t3706) K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets t2222, Hero raises to t6800 (All-In), MP calls t4578

River: (t17306) J (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t17306

Results:
Hero had 10, 10 (two pair, Kings and tens).
MP had K, A (three of a kind, Kings).
Outcome: MP won t17306


With a spade, it's a completely different story and an easy shove, I think.

SCOOP Event 14: 6-Max NLHE ($500)

I made a decent run in the $500 6-max on Wednesday, and though I didn't do as well in the $5K, there were interesting hands from both, so I'm going to do two different posts.

I lost about half my stack early on in the $500, but managed to recover. Then there was this hand that really gave me a boost:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $500+$30 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 25 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) (t11229)
BB (t7109)
UTG (t4199)
MP (t11233)
CO (t11561)
Button (t21931)

Hero's M: 24.95

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, A
3 folds, Button calls t200, Hero calls t100, BB checks

Flop: (t750) Q, A, K (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, Button bets t500, Hero calls t500, 1 fold

Turn: (t1750) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t2000, Hero calls t2000

River: (t5750) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t5200, Hero calls t5200

Total pot: t16150

Results:
Button had 9, 7 (high card, Ace).
Hero had 7, A (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won t16150


Not that his line makes a whole lot of sense anyway, but I'd previously seen him check the flop and lead out for half pot on the turn with a set, so I was even less inclined to believe his overbet. I doubt he's open limping AQ, AK, QQ, KK, or AA on the button, so JT is literally the only made hand I could expect him to have.

So things were going well, and I had a not-too-tough table, except for a guy some of you may know who plays under the handle teacuppoker. He's a good player who's been around for a while- I played with him in person at the 2007 WSOP, and recognized his screenname from before that. Sadly, I got into a tough spot against him and didn't play it brilliantly.

It just goes to show you how much it sucks to be out of position against a good player, when you can flop top pair top kicker and your first thought is "Shit, what am I going to do?" It's not that I was worried about getting beat, but just that I didn't know what line to take to get paid off without getting bluff out or paying off to much to the occasional better hand myself. I ultimately went for three streets of value, which in a cash game would be fine but is probably too optimistic in a tournament, even against a guy who does play MSNL and HSNL:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $500+$30 Tournament, 150/300 Blinds 40 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) (t19208)
MP (t26465)
CO (t23634)
Button (t9160)
SB (t5430)
BB (t11357)

Hero's M: 27.84

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, A
Hero bets t777, 1 fold, CO calls t777, 3 folds

Flop: (t2244) 10, 4, K (2 players)
Hero bets t1111, CO calls t1111

Turn: (t4466) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t2888, CO calls t2888

River: (t10242) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets t6666, CO calls t6666

Total pot: t23574

Results:
Hero had K, A (one pair, Kings).
CO had 10, 10 (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: CO won t23574


Of course, I was destined to lose a big pot here. But check-folding the river might actually have been better. The most obvious draw got there, and although I'm sure he's capable, he doesn't have much reason to turn a pair into a bluff here.

Then I fought around for a while and eventually got sort of coolered in a blind battle, though based on how passive this guy had been on his big blind, I maybe could have just called flop. Even if I do, though, I don't see how we don't get it on this turn:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $500+$30 Tournament, 250/500 Blinds 60 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) (t13506)
BB (t19033)
UTG (t40954)
MP (t8136)
CO (t5030)
Button (t8595)

Hero's M: 12.17

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, J
4 folds, Hero calls t250, BB checks

Flop: (t1360) 7, 10, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t897, Hero raises to t2444, BB raises to t18473 (All-In), Hero calls t10502 (All-In)

Turn: (t27252) 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t27252) K (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t27252

Results:
Hero had 9, J (one pair, nines).
BB had 9, 10 (two pair, tens and nines).
Outcome: BB won t27252

SCOOP Event 13: Razz

Unlike most players, I enjoy Razz. Yeah, it can be infuriating, but it's also kind of elegant in its simplicity. I spend most of this tournament catching well, so even though I didn't cash, it was fun. The only really interesting hand to come up was this one, where I slow-played my hand (rare to do in Razz, because it's usually very obvious when you've improved) and check-raised the river:

PokerStars Game #26871293549: Tournament #200904132, $200+$15 Razz Limit - Level V (100/200) - 2009/04/08 16:05:02 ET
Table '200904132 6' 8-max
Seat 1: dengladelaks (6761 in chips)
Seat 2: mattutaylor (3642 in chips)
Seat 4: foucault82 (6245 in chips)
Seat 5: raconteur (4232 in chips)
Seat 6: Mitchdubai (10797 in chips)
Seat 7: skootamatta (4353 in chips)
Seat 8: ImaLucSac (3970 in chips)

*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to dengladelaks [7h]
Dealt to mattutaylor [Jh]
Dealt to foucault82 [4h 3h 7s]
Dealt to raconteur [Qc]
Dealt to Mitchdubai [Ts]
Dealt to skootamatta [Ah]
Dealt to ImaLucSac [2c]

raconteur: brings in for 30
Mitchdubai: folds
skootamatta: raises 70 to 100
ImaLucSac: folds
dengladelaks: folds
mattutaylor: folds
foucault82: calls 100
raconteur: calls 70

*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to foucault82 [4h 3h 7s] [Td]
Dealt to raconteur [Qc] [8d]
Dealt to skootamatta [Ah] [Ks]
foucault82: bets 100
raconteur: raises 100 to 200
skootamatta: calls 200
foucault82: calls 100

*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to foucault82 [4h 3h 7s Td] [6h]
Dealt to raconteur [Qc 8d] [Qd]
Dealt to skootamatta [Ah Ks] [Kc]
foucault82: bets 200
raconteur: calls 200
skootamatta: calls 200

*** 6th STREET ***
Dealt to foucault82 [4h 3h 7s Td 6h] [Jc]
Dealt to raconteur [Qc 8d Qd] [8h]
Dealt to skootamatta [Ah Ks Kc] [Tc]
foucault82: checks
raconteur: checks
skootamatta: checks

*** RIVER ***
Dealt to foucault82 [4h 3h 7s Td 6h Jc] [9d]
foucault82: checks
raconteur: checks
skootamatta: bets 200
foucault82: raises 200 to 400
raconteur: folds
skootamatta: folds
Uncalled bet (200) returned to foucault82
foucault82 collected 2040 from pot
foucault82: doesn't show hand

*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2040 | Rake 0
Seat 1: dengladelaks folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 2: mattutaylor folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 4: foucault82 collected (2040)
Seat 5: raconteur folded on the River
Seat 6: Mitchdubai folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 7: skootamatta folded on the River
Seat 8: ImaLucSac folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)

It says something about the quality of play in this tournament that I have a lock on 5th street in a three-way pot. When we call catch bad on 6th, I was afraid I might lose them with a bet. Plus, there's the chance that skoot will decide he has the best hand and/or fold equity and bet for me anyway.

When that didn't happen, I figure they either got there or they didn't on 7th. If they didn't, they aren't calling a bet, and if they did, one of them might bet. Or, if they missed, one of them might bluff.

It's maybe a bit of a decision whether to call or check-raise 7th, but really I think check-raise is best. It's far more likely for skoot to make a crying call (the pot odds are awfully juicy) than for raconteur to overcall.

There were about 900 players, and we were down to 130 or so when I lost most of my stack:

PokerStars Game #26879162778: Tournament #200904132, $200+$15 Razz Limit - Level XV (1200/2400) - 2009/04/08 19:51:41 ET
Table '200904132 24' 8-max
Seat 1: yellowsub86 (28272 in chips)
Seat 2: turtlman (5290 in chips)
Seat 3: mapocalyps (34210 in chips)
Seat 4: ozenc (25805 in chips)
Seat 5: foucault82 (12105 in chips)
Seat 6: cRRusher (25769 in chips)
Seat 7: .dfm.dfm. (7711 in chips)
Seat 8: oldegreybehr (13385 in chips)

*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to yellowsub86 [9c]
Dealt to turtlman [Ts]
Dealt to mapocalyps [6d]
Dealt to ozenc [3c]
Dealt to foucault82 [As 7s 3h]
Dealt to cRRusher [Qs]
Dealt to .dfm.dfm. [Jh]
Dealt to oldegreybehr [4d]

cRRusher: brings in for 360
.dfm.dfm.: folds
oldegreybehr: folds
yellowsub86: folds
turtlman: folds
mapocalyps: calls 360
ozenc: folds
foucault82: raises 840 to 1200
cRRusher: folds
mapocalyps: calls 840

*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to mapocalyps [6d] [Ac]
Dealt to foucault82 [As 7s 3h] [4c]
foucault82: bets 1200
mapocalyps: calls 1200

*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to mapocalyps [6d Ac] [7d]
Dealt to foucault82 [As 7s 3h 4c] [4h]
mapocalyps: bets 2400
foucault82: calls 2400

*** 6th STREET ***
Dealt to mapocalyps [6d Ac 7d] [Kh]
Dealt to foucault82 [As 7s 3h 4c 4h] [3s]
mapocalyps: bets 2400
foucault82: calls 2400

*** RIVER ***
Dealt to foucault82 [As 7s 3h 4c 4h 3s] [7c]
mapocalyps: checks
foucault82: checks

*** SHOW DOWN ***
mapocalyps: shows [8s 5d 6d Ac 7d Kh Ad] (Lo: 8,7,6,5,A)
foucault82: mucks hand
mapocalyps collected 16680 from pot

*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 16680 | Rake 0
Seat 1: yellowsub86 folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 2: turtlman folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 3: mapocalyps showed [8s 5d 6d Ac 7d Kh Ad] and won (16680) with Lo: 8,7,6,5,A
Seat 4: ozenc folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 5: foucault82 mucked [As 7s 3h 4c 4h 3s 7c]
Seat 6: cRRusher folded on the 3rd Street
Seat 7: .dfm.dfm. folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 8: oldegreybehr folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)


I think the only close decision here is 6th. I'm getting a little better than 4:1. I'm thinking a deuce or a 5 will give me a win almost always, a 6 pretty often, and an 8 often enough to make a river call +EV. Those cards are all very live, so I take one off, but I can't get there.

I threw the last of my chips in with 234 vs an A36 on 3rd but lost that one as well to bust a few spots off the bubble. Still, a good time was had by me.

SCOOP Event 12: Stud/8

Once upon a time I considered myself a pretty decent Stud/8 player, but I've probably played fewer than 1000 hands in the last 6 months. Consequently, $1500 was a little more than I wanted to put behind my skillz. I did play the $150, though, and had a good time doing it. I can't say I recall a lot of interesting hands, but here's one where I play second-man-low:

PokerStars Game #26838991298: Tournament #200904122, $200+$15 7 Card Stud Hi/Lo Limit - Level IV (80/160) - 2009/04/07 17:54:53 ET
Table '200904122 30' 8-max
Seat 1: xmrstyle (5557 in chips)
Seat 2: GoodOleBoy (5051 in chips)
Seat 3: foucault82 (3681 in chips)
Seat 4: mrpokejoke (5594 in chips)
Seat 5: JohnnyBax (6949 in chips)
Seat 6: Corrino (3464 in chips)
Seat 7: FODMAND (4741 in chips)
Seat 8: badbeat987 (4963 in chips)

*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to xmrstyle [7s]
Dealt to GoodOleBoy [2s]
Dealt to foucault82 [Ks Jd Kh]
Dealt to mrpokejoke [Jc]
Dealt to JohnnyBax [6d]
Dealt to Corrino [6c]
Dealt to FODMAND [7h]
Dealt to badbeat987 [Kc]

GoodOleBoy: bets 80
foucault82: raises 80 to 160
mrpokejoke: folds
JohnnyBax: folds
Corrino: folds
FODMAND: raises 80 to 240
badbeat987: folds
xmrstyle: folds
GoodOleBoy: calls 160
foucault82: calls 80

*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to GoodOleBoy [2s] [Ac]
Dealt to foucault82 [Ks Jd Kh] [Td]
Dealt to FODMAND [7h] [4c]
GoodOleBoy: bets 80
foucault82: calls 80
FODMAND: calls 80

*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to GoodOleBoy [2s Ac] [As]
Dealt to foucault82 [Ks Jd Kh Td] [Tc]
Dealt to FODMAND [7h 4c] [5h]
GoodOleBoy: bets 160
foucault82: calls 160
FODMAND: calls 160

*** 6th STREET ***
Dealt to GoodOleBoy [2s Ac As] [3c]
Dealt to foucault82 [Ks Jd Kh Td Tc] [9d]
Dealt to FODMAND [7h 4c 5h] [7c]
GoodOleBoy: bets 160
foucault82: calls 160
FODMAND: raises 160 to 320
GoodOleBoy: calls 160
foucault82: calls 160

*** RIVER ***
Dealt to foucault82 [Ks Jd Kh Td Tc 9d] [Th]
GoodOleBoy: bets 160
foucault82: calls 160
FODMAND: raises 160 to 320
GoodOleBoy: calls 160
foucault82: raises 160 to 480
FODMAND: calls 160
GoodOleBoy: calls 160

*** SHOW DOWN ***
foucault82: shows [Ks Jd Kh Td Tc 9d Th] (HI: a full house, Tens full of Kings)
FODMAND: shows [Ah 7d 7h 4c 5h 7c 6h] (HI: three of a kind, Sevens; LO: 7,6,5,4,A)
GoodOleBoy: mucks hand
foucault82 collected 1984 from pot
FODMAND collected 1984 from pot

*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3968 | Rake 0
Seat 1: xmrstyle folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 2: GoodOleBoy mucked [3d 5s 2s Ac As 3c 3h]
Seat 3: foucault82 showed [Ks Jd Kh Td Tc 9d Th] and won (1984) with HI: a full house, Tens full of Kings
Seat 4: mrpokejoke folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 5: JohnnyBax folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Corrino folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 7: FODMAND showed [Ah 7d 7h 4c 5h 7c 6h] and won (1984) with HI: three of a kind, Sevens; LO: 7,6,5,4,A
Seat 8: badbeat987 folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)


I'll say up front that my calls on earlier streets are a little questionable, and obviously I luckboxed the river. But, when Fod 3-bets on 3rd, I'm putting him on either baby suited connectors, buried Aces, or rolled up 7's, with the former being by far the most likely. Good could have some high hands but almost always has a low, including probably some weaker hands than one probably ought to be raising in first position.

Of course I'm not thrilled to see him catch an A on 4th, but I can't freak out yet. Then he pairs the A, but he still probably has just one pair and a low, while I've now made two pair. Proceeding with caution.

Meanwhile, it's pretty unlikely Fod had buried Aces, so probably he's on a low with one pair as well. Raising when he pairs his door card is pretty alarming, but by now the pot is big, I've got two pair, and besides did he really 3-bet into a K with just a pair of 7's?

The river is neat because my value almost certainly needs to come from Fod. I've got now low, so putting in an extra bet against Good isn't worth anything. I don't want to raise Fod off of a worse high, and it looks like he might put the raise in for me, allowing me to win (half of) two more bets off of him.

In retrospect, Fod's raise on 3rd isn't that bad. With the A in his hand, his shot at beating me for high is much improved. If a raise can chase Good out of the pot (a dubious proposition against most amateurs), he greatly increases his odds of taking the low as well.

My bust-out hand is a little neat also:

PokerStars Game #26843304587: Tournament #200904122, $200+$15 7 Card Stud Hi/Lo Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2009/04/07 20:02:19 ET
Table '200904122 14' 8-max
Seat 1: foucault82 (2202 in chips)
Seat 2: tilou4fun (19017 in chips)
Seat 4: get crunk (21744 in chips)
Seat 5: Iteopepe88 (3407 in chips)
Seat 6: Don_Insano (10591 in chips)
Seat 7: Mungy (9593 in chips)
Seat 8: Crisper (6932 in chips)

*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to foucault82 [6h 5d 2c]
Dealt to tilou4fun [Jd]
Dealt to get crunk [8c]
Dealt to Iteopepe88 [Qc]
Dealt to Don_Insano [9h]
Dealt to Mungy [Qh]
Dealt to Crisper [3s]
foucault82: brings in for 120
tilou4fun: raises 280 to 400
get crunk: folds
Iteopepe88: folds
Don_Insano: folds
Mungy: folds
Crisper: folds
foucault82: calls 280

*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to foucault82 [6h 5d 2c] [5h]
Dealt to tilou4fun [Jd] [4h]
tilou4fun: checks
foucault82: checks

*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to foucault82 [6h 5d 2c 5h] [9s]
Dealt to tilou4fun [Jd 4h] [Kh]
tilou4fun: bets 800
somebody is connected
foucault82: calls 800

*** 6th STREET ***
Dealt to foucault82 [6h 5d 2c 5h 9s] [Kd]
Dealt to tilou4fun [Jd 4h Kh] [Ac]
tilou4fun: bets 800
foucault82: raises 122 to 922 and is all-in
tilou4fun: calls 122

*** RIVER ***
Dealt to foucault82 [6h 5d 2c 5h 9s Kd] [7c]

*** SHOW DOWN ***
foucault82: shows [6h 5d 2c 5h 9s Kd 7c] (HI: a pair of Fives)
tilou4fun: shows [7d Qd Jd 4h Kh Ac Qs] (HI: a pair of Queens)
tilou4fun collected 4804 from pot
No low hand qualified

*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4804 | Rake 0
Seat 1: foucault82 showed [6h 5d 2c 5h 9s Kd 7c] and lost with HI: a pair of Fives
Seat 2: tilou4fun showed [7d Qd Jd 4h Kh Ac Qs] and won (4804) with HI: a pair of Queens
Seat 4: get crunk folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Iteopepe88 folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Don_Insano folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Mungy folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Crisper folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)


If I hadn't been the bring-in, I probably would have just gotten it in on 3rd. As it is, though, I think he has J's almost always, and I can check-fold a brick on 4th. With the 5, I'm looking to check-get-it-in, but he surprises me by checking it back.

There are a ton of "good enough" cards for me on 5th (anything 8 or lower or higher than his J), but a 9 wasn't one of them. When he bet, I got to thinking about his check on 4th- maybe he didn't have J's after all? He didn't, but I still couldn't escape with so much as half.

SCOOP Event 10: NLHE Heads Up

Edit: Fixed title. This is SCOOP, not FTOPS. Was tired and tilted last night when posting this.

I was really looking forward to this event, as I've been working on my heads up game of late. I played both the $1500 and the $150 and had reasonable tough first round opponents in both. On the $150, I just a lot of small- and medium-pots to "mild cooler" spots where I had like the slightly worse hand or bluffed into the top of the guy's range and what not. I ultimately lost the match, don't even remember how.

Match 1

The $1500 was a really hard-fought match. I got off to an early lead, then lost a few big pots, the biggest with top pair vs a set and flopped top pair vs rivered higher pair. Villain was grinding me down pre-flop, raising, c-betting, and 3-betting well. Eventually I 4-bet shoved AJ on him pre-flop. He had AK, but I sucked out, and we were back to even.

We battled back and forth for a while, and eventually I made a big call to get into the lead. First, I'll give you a prior hand that made me suspicious:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1500+$75 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) (t4600)
SB (t5400)

Hero's M: 61.33

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6, K
Hero bets t150, SB calls t100

Flop: (t300) 5, 8, J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t175, SB calls t175

Turn: (t650) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (t650) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t425, SB raises to t1450, Hero folds

Total pot: t1500

Results:
SB didn't show
Outcome: SB won t1500


In this spot, my hand is almost always either a bluff or a thin value bet, so it's a good spot for a check-raise bluff. There are two problems with that: 1) It's also a good spot to check-raise for value; and 2) many players just don't check-raise bluff rivers very often, particularly not in tournaments where play tends toward the conservative. I folded, but I made a mental note, and eventually I made this call:


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1500+$75 Tournament, 30/60 Blinds (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) (t3770)
SB (t6230)

Hero's M: 41.89

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 9
Hero bets t155, SB calls t95

Flop: (t310) 6, 6, 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t177, SB calls t177

Turn: (t664) 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (t664) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t388, SB raises to t1425, Hero calls t1037

Total pot: t3514

Results:
Hero had 10, 9 (two pair, tens and sixes).
SB had 5, 5 (two pair, sixes and fives).
Outcome: Hero won t3514


He fought back up to about even, then we got it in with TT vs. AK. My TT held, and that was the match!

Match 2

This opponent was easier than my first but still somewhat competent. It helped that he seemed to be catching a lot of cards. He did make one or two questionable calls against me, but then he made up for it by slowplaying what I'm pretty sure was a flush and getting me to go for three streets of value with top pair only to get check-raised on the river. This one also ended in a coin flip in my favor.

Match 3

This guy was one of the worst heads up players I've ever seen. I have no idea how he won his first two matches, nor what he was doing in this tournament at all for that matter. He was just ridiculously tight and passive, letting me steal oodles of pots with min-bets and min-raises and never playing back at me. He did bluff occasionally, but always in obvious spots and never for more than one barrel. He used his position so poorly that I was calling a lot of raises out of position, which is obviously a bad plan in most any heads up match. There was never any doubt in mind that I would win this one, and after grinding him down to just 20% of his starting stack, I won a coin flip to eliminate him.

Match 4

I was lucky enough to draw another very weak opponent. He tried to make some moves, but tended to do so in a very predictable way, making it easy to catch him. Prior to this hand, for instance, he'd re-raise me pre-flop several times. Since he didn't play back at me pre-flop, I was pretty sure he'd be itching to do so on such a dry flop:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1500+$75 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) (t6423)
SB (t3577)

Hero's M: 85.64

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 5
Hero bets t100, SB calls t50

Flop: (t200) 4, 2, 2 (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets t123, SB raises to t350, Hero calls t227

Turn: (t900) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t333, 1 fold

Total pot: t900

Results:
Hero didn't show 9, 5 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t900


Unfortunately, before I could turn this guy's aggression against him, he managed to cooler me twice, once with a set vs. my two pair to get himself back in the match, then with bottom two vs. my top pair and gut shot. In the latter case, I actually had nearly 50% equity, but I suppose I was due to lose a coin flip.

SCOOP Event 8: NLHE Two-Day

I was going to play the HORSE event, but the buyins just didn't line up right for me. The 10K was out of the question, even the 1K was a touch high, and the $100 was too small for me to add two hours onto what was already a potentially long session (the day's second event was scheduled to run for 12 hours before stopping for the night).

I played the $300 and the $3000 two-days, but they ended up being one-day tournaments for me. The $3000 got nearly 1000 players, and my table was about what I was expecting: a lot of solid players, no one phenomenally good, and a soft spot or two. Unfortunately, the soft spot became a problem for me. Here, my attempt to isolate him got me into to trouble:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $3000+$150 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t10875)
Button (t11839)
Hero (SB) (t8611)
BB (t10850)
UTG (t9775)
UTG+1 (t9900)
MP1 (t8075)
MP2 (t10075)

Hero's M: 114.81

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 9
3 folds, MP2 calls t50, 2 folds, Hero bets t250, BB calls t200, MP2 calls t200

Flop: (t750) 6, K, 5 (3 players)
Hero bets t567, BB calls t567, MP2 calls t567

Turn: (t2451) 5 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t1450, 1 fold, Hero calls t1450

River: (t5351) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t8583 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: t5351

Results:
BB didn't show
Outcome: BB won t5351


The BB was possibly my most skilled opponent- unfortunate to have him on my left. The turn is a good spot for him to bluff with a draw, but the problem with calling is that it sets him up to shove the river. I guess I could call that, too, but I dunno. I guess folding turn is probably correct. You could argue for checking flop as well, but I was still looking at as an isolation play, hoping to get BB out, and if fishy calls, I'm comfortable playing out of position against him. Too bad it backfired.

The same fish took me out a bit later:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $3000+$150 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds 10 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t10245)
Button (t11004)
Hero (SB) (t3982)
BB (t11770)
UTG (t8571)
UTG+1 (t10015)
MP1 (t4040)
MP2 (t8516)
MP3 (t21223)

Hero's M: 16.59

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, K
2 folds, MP1 bets t300, 1 fold, MP3 calls t300, 2 folds, Hero raises to t1111, 2 folds, MP3 calls t811

Flop: (t2712) 5, 4, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t2861 (All-In), MP3 calls t2861

Turn: (t8434) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t8434) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t8434

Results:
Hero had K, K (two pair, Kings and fours).
MP3 had A, 7 (straight, seven high).
Outcome: MP3 won t8434


I lasted a while longer in the $300, but eventually bluffed off my stack:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $300+$20 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 50 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t26848)
MP3 (t24581)
CO (t3799)
Hero (Button) (t16360)
SB (t17599)
BB (t8725)
UTG (t24137)
UTG+1 (t4450)
MP1 (t16052)

Hero's M: 15.58

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, K
4 folds, MP3 bets t1000, 1 fold, Hero raises to t2666, 2 folds, MP3 calls t1666

Flop: (t6382) 5, 2, 9 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets t2444, MP3 calls t2444

Turn: (t11270) 10 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets t11200 (All-In), MP3 calls t11200

River: (t33670) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t33670

Results:
Hero had J, K (high card, King).
MP3 had 10, 10 (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: MP3 won t33670


Villain raised a fair bit from late position. This was the first time I'd 3-bet him, but I was fairly confident that even if he flatted a 3-bet with a big pair pre-flop, he wouldn't continue to slowplay the flop, especially not when I bet so small. I do think he'll fold some better (ie Ax) hands and also sometimes peel kinda light, making the turn shove more profitable. I wasn't going to shove just any turn, but I wanted to give myself the option. When I picked up the gutshot, it felt like a good spot.

He had the kind of hand I wanted him to have, he just happened to "suck out" on the turn. I'm inclined to say he would have folded unimproved on the turn, but then again you know tournament players and their overpairs! (Insert snarky comment about cash game LAGdonks and their crazy bluffs.)

SCOOP 5: NLHE Shootout

I even knew they were putting a cap on registration for these, but I waited until the last minute to register anyway. Both the $150 (at 1000) and the $1500 (at freaking 100) buy-in events were locked, so I played the $15 for a lark. I don't know if it was locked at 10K, but it got damn near that, with more than 9000 runners. I saw the field in the $1500 and was kind of glad I didn't play it, though it presumably would have been softer with a larger field.

The structure was great and the opposition terrible, so with a lot of patience I was able to grind my way through my first table with no real difficulty. I roll my eyes whenever Daniel Negreanu mentions "small ball", but against a weak field it really is an awesome strategy. No one was playing back at me ever, so I just stole like a demon pre- and post-flop without ever putting much at risk until I had a huge hand. The few times I did, I lost one big flip with AQ vs. 66 against a guy who limp-shoved on me from the SB (that one I think was mandatory) and when I reshoved 99 into KK (and probably I should have just folded pre-flop, even four-handed to a CO raise, given stacks, reads, etc.).

A very similar strategy worked well for me at the second table

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $15.00+$1.50 Tournament, 1250/2500 Blinds 300 Ante (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t39651)
SB (t131070)
Hero (BB) (t196924)
UTG (t41296)
MP (t91059)

Hero's M: 37.51

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A
UTG bets t7500, MP raises to t90759 (All-In), 4 folds

Total pot: t20250


Towards the end of the second table, there were two hands where I got away from small ball and swung for the fences. They were the end of me:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $15.00+$1.50 Tournament, 1250/2500 Blinds 300 Ante (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t203211)
Hero (Button) (t193874)
SB (t102915)

Hero's M: 41.69

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
Hero bets t5555, SB raises to t17500, 1 fold, Hero raises to t193574 (All-In), SB calls t85115 (All-In)

Flop: (t208630) K, 2, 9 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t208630) K (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t208630) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t208630

Results:
Hero had J, J (two pair, Kings and Jacks).
SB had Q, Q (two pair, Kings and Queens).
Outcome: SB won t208630


Although it sounds absurd since I was raising 60-70% of my hands on the button, I think I should have folded this pre-flop. This was the first time this player had re-raised me all tournament, and I was picking up chips so easily that there wasn't a need to felt him here. Obviously not folding JJ pre-flop with 30BB effective stacks and an insane image isn't going to be a huge leak, but I do think folding would have been correct here. And then a few hands later, there was the one that did me in:


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $15.00+$1.50 Tournament, 1250/2500 Blinds 300 Ante (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t118106)
Hero (SB) (t94614)
BB (t287280)

Hero's M: 20.35

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
1 fold, Hero bets t7500, BB calls t5000

Flop: (t15900) 10, 8, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets t8888, BB calls t8888

Turn: (t33676) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets t22222, BB raises to t270592 (All-In), Hero calls t55704 (All-In)

River: (t189528) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t189528

Results:
Hero had A, A (one pair, Aces).
BB had 6, 8 (two pair, eights and sixes).
Outcome: BB won t189528


I'm definitely going to lose some money here, but I think it's a too optimistic to go for his stack. I'd rather check turn and then either bet-fold river (if he checks back the turn) or check-call turn and bet-fold or check-fold river depending on the card and his turn bet size.

Making Quick Reads in Poker Tournaments

My latest article, "Making Quick Reads in Poker Tournaments", is now appearing in the April issue of 2+2 Magazine. Here's an excerpt that previews the article's content:

"This article will suggest several strategies for formulating preliminary profiles of new opponents and adapting your play accordingly. It is important to emphasize from the outset that these will be tentative and preliminary, though educated, guesses. You should continue to observe your opponents actively and be very open to revising, qualifying, or even reversing your first impressions as you gather new information. If used correctly, though, these tips can help you to make surprisingly accurate assessments based on relatively little information."

Please let me know if you find it helpful, if you have any suggestions, or if I've made any blatant errors (that last one's for you, brue!).

SCOOP Event 4: NLHE 2x Chance Turbo

I hate turbos, but they are quick, so I chose to play the $15 and the $150 but not the $1500. Sure enough, within an hour I was reduced to push/fold on both tables. I actually picked up a lot of big hands in the $150, but it didn't do me any good. I was either getting no action, getting sucked out on, or losing races. The only kinda interesting hand is this one, in which I got a little FPS'y and a lot of unlucky:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $150+$12 Tournament, 60/120 Blinds 15 Ante (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) (t6871)
UTG (t3790)
UTG+1 (t3670)
MP1 (t7084)
MP2 (t3912)
CO (t4635)
Button (t11283)
SB (t3755)

Hero's M: 22.90

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, J
2 folds, MP1 bets t300, 4 folds, Hero raises to t900, MP1 calls t600

Flop: (t1980) 7, 9, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks

Turn: (t1980) Q (2 players)
Hero bets t1111, MP1 calls t1111

River: (t4202) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t2845, MP1 calls t2845

Total pot: t9892

Results:
Hero had J, J (one pair, Jacks).
MP1 had K, Q (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: MP1 won t9892


This is another one of those "good in a cash game but too fancy for a tournament" plays that I just can't help making. It's worth pointing out that I'd been 3-betting a lot (always with hands, but they never got shown down), and in a high stakes cash game people will steal very aggressively when you check flops like this to them. I'm just giving up so often when I check here. It's actually probably better to do this with QQ or KK than with JJ, since JJ actually has better equity against Villain's shoving range if I bet the flop.

The other thing that threw me off was that in the FTOPS, the Second Chance event gave every player a free rebuy that expired if you didn't use it during the rebuy period. I foolishly assumed Stars would work the same way and was actively trying to get my chips in during the last few minutes of the rebuy period, only to find that I was charged $15 when I did rebuy. Thankfully that was just on the smaller table, though I did end up rebuying on the $150 as well.

All in all, though, it was a good session. I made solid money on the cash games while wasting very little time or money on the tournaments.

The 5-card draw Event 3 would have been fun, but today was laundry day. :-(

SCOOP Events 1 and 2: 6-Max NLHE with Rebuys and PLO8

Thankfully the cash games I was playing on the side went well, because the tournaments did not. I played the $50 and $500 rebuys, but decided to skip the $5. I was thinking it might be fun to play despite the small stakes, but then I saw that there were more than 25,000 people registered for it! I have to think this is the largest non-freeroll tournament ever held.

On top of the fact that the two I did play had good structures, they were rebuys, meaning getting eliminated in the first hour wasn't in action. I was in for the "minimum" and even managed to double up in the $50 thanks to making trips two hands in a row against a loose player. Nevertheless, I dusted off my stack in both within two and half hours.

Worse, I feel like I was probably at least somewhat wrong to lose my stack in both cases. Here's my bustout hand from the $50:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50+$5 Tournament, 40/80 Blinds (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t3213)
Button (t18316)
Hero (SB) (t11211)
BB (t5965)
UTG (t13562)
MP (t11473)

Hero's M: 93.42

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, A
3 folds, Button bets t240, Hero raises to t777, 1 fold, Button calls t537

Flop: (t1634) 6, 8, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t1111, Button calls t1111

Turn: (t3856) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t1895, Hero raises to t9323 (All-In), Button calls t7428

River: (t22502) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t22502

Results:
Button had 7, 8 (full house, sevens over eights).
Hero had Q, A (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: Button won t22502

I doubt he's betting less than two pair when I check to him on the turn, especially for this amount. As much as it sucks, check-folding might be correct here.

And in the $500:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $500+$30 Tournament, 30/60 Blinds (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) (t7271)
UTG (t8125)
MP (t19938)
CO (t10487)
Button (t11836)
SB (t8343)

Hero's M: 80.79

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, Q
1 fold, MP bets t180, 2 folds, SB raises to t600, Hero raises to t1555, 1 fold, SB raises to t8343 (All-In), Hero calls t5716 (All-In)

Flop: (t14722) J, J, 10 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t14722) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t14722) 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t14722

Results:
SB had A, A (two pair, Aces and Jacks).
Hero had Q, Q (two pair, Queens and Jacks).
Outcome: SB won t14722


Note to self: six-max tournaments are not six-mas cash games. In my defense, this guy did seem a little loose pre-flop. He called one of my 3-bets out of position with A5s. That might justify calling his 5-bet shove, but I think flatting the 3-bet is probably best. I hate doing that against very good players because it defines your hand for them for free, but I doubt this guy was good enough to take advantage of that.

In general, though, there did seem to be a strong field in this tournament. My table at least was solid, with one player I've seen before at $25/$50.

To make matters worse, I misread the SCOOP schedule and ended up missing the PLO8 events, which my longtime readers will know I really enjoy. I thought they were tomorrow, but they were actually an event starting later in the afternoon today. Oh well, at least the cash games I was playing on the side well, netting me a handsome profit for the session despite the hefty tournament buyins.

Don't Be a Hero (Except Now)

Most players just don't know how to execute a good bluff raise on the river and won't even try, and I probably play the Hero a little more than I should in "good spots" that my opponents probably don't even recognize. This was against a smarter opponent, though, and while he doesn't make a lot of moves, I caught him here:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($840)
CO ($1099.85)
Button ($1910.10)
SB ($2159)
BB ($796)
Hero (UTG) ($2323)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, K
Hero bets $35, 3 folds, SB calls $30, 1 fold

Flop: ($80) 4, 3, 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $55, SB calls $55

Turn: ($190) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($190) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $155, SB raises to $555, Hero calls $400

Total pot: $1300 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB had 7, 7 (two pair, sevens and fours).
Hero had K, K (two pair, Kings and fours).
Outcome: Hero won $1297


First off, this is a decent spot for him to bluff. My hand is pretty clearly defined as an overpair or worse. Since he's representing a flush or full house, my hand is just a bluff catcher, and as I said, most people just don't check-raise bluff the river as much as they should.

The thing that helped me to call is that I'm not sure he plays a flush draw like this, and even some of his full house combos are unlikely. He's calling my UTG raise from the SB, so I'm not expecting to see a lot of suited connectors. I guess something like As Qs makes sense- it helps that I have the Ks and can rule out AKs and KQs.

I also think he may not (or at least probably should not) be playing small pairs pre-flop, which makes 33, 44, and 55 less likely.

Really, I'm not sure calling 77 pre-flop is very good either. He's probably a bit of a dog to my UTG range, so he's losing something in immediate equity pre-flop. It's easy to be like "LOLSETODDS" but it's not going to be that easy to win a big pot from out of position just because he flops a set. Compared to all the times he gets forced off the best hand, plus the potential reverse implied odds spots (see above), I think he ought to just fold pre-flop. Playing out of position sucks.

2 for 2 in SCOOP Satellites

To top off a great weekend, I played and won my second $2000 satellite to the $10,000 WCOOP main event. The first one I played, which I replayed for Poker Savvy Plus, had only 9 runners and paid one seat plus a lot cash. This one got 52 runners, paying 10 seats plus some cash for 11th. Naturally it was a very different satellite dynamic. Here are a few of the more interesting hands:

This one occurred with 25 players left. With fewer players left, or a slightly weaker hand (JJ, even), I think it would be very close. Even here, I wasn't happy with Queens:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2000+$100 Tournament, 125/250 Blinds 30 Ante (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t7802)
Hero (UTG+1) (t6339)
MP1 (t5140)
MP2 (t7681)
CO (t4490)
Button (t9135)
SB (t2515)
BB (t6864)

Hero's M: 10.31

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q, Q
1 fold, Hero bets t666, 3 folds, Button raises to t2000, 2 folds, Hero raises to t6309 (All-In), Button calls t4309

Flop: (t13233) 3, 8, 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t13233) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t13233) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t13233

Results:
Button had K, A (one pair, tens).
Hero had Q, Q (two pair, Queens and tens).
Outcome: Hero won t13233


On this next one, I'm pretty happy with the flat call. I think TT is too strong to fold, but not strong enough to get in pre-flop. This stage of the tournament is going to force Villain to play pretty straightforwardly, and combined with my position, I think I'll be able to realize my showdown value post-flop and avoid losing too much to better hands.

I'm actually unsure about this river bet, though. I have the best hand pretty much always, but I think I get called almost never. I'm wondering if something smaller, like 5500, wouldn't be better rather than force Villain to risk his tournament life?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2000+$100 Tournament, 150/300 Blinds 40 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t11648)
Hero (Button) (t12058)
SB (t7025)
BB (t6051)
UTG (t6180)
MP (t7004)

Hero's M: 17.48

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 10
2 folds, CO bets t900, Hero calls t900, 2 folds

Flop: (t2490) 7, 10, K (2 players)
CO bets t1200, Hero calls t1200

Turn: (t4890) J (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets t2345, CO calls t2345

River: (t9580) 6 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets t7573 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: t9580

Results:
Hero didn't show 10, 10 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t9580


There were 12 left for this last one, and I was like 5th or 6th. Villain's raise size made me nervous, since it seemed larger than necessary, but he also may have been trying to make clear to the Button that he was calling a shove (though that should have been clear anyway).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2000+$100 Tournament, 350/700 Blinds 85 Ante (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t2982)
Hero (SB) (t12949)
BB (t17050)
UTG (t9051)
MP1 (t11756)
MP2 (t13217)
CO (t19973)

Hero's M: 7.87

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, A
3 folds, CO bets t2100, 1 fold, Hero raises to t12864 (All-In), 2 folds

Total pot: t5495

Results:
Hero didn't show J, A (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t5495


Thing is, big stacks are not that much bigger than small stacks, given the blinds, and if you don't occasionally take risks like this, you can easily end up having to take far bigger risks should you find yourself short. I've cost myself a few seats in the past by getting too tight prematurely and underestimating just how long the bubble would take.

Most Psychotic Bluff I've Ever Seen

Hmmm, 80:1 odds? I think I'll call:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($1802)
SB ($490)
BB ($1424)
UTG ($985)
MP ($1884)
CO ($1442.45)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6, 8
1 fold, MP bets $35, 1 fold, Hero calls $35, 2 folds

Flop: ($85) 5, 7, 8 (2 players)
MP bets $45, Hero raises to $122, MP raises to $320, Hero raises to $678, MP raises to $1200, Hero raises to $1722, MP raises to $1849 (All-In), Hero calls $45 (All-In)

Turn: ($3619) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($3619) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $3619 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 6, 8 (one pair, eights).
MP had J, 2 (one pair, twos).
Outcome: Hero won $3616


I tried to make the flop 3-bet kinda sketchy to maximize fold equity versus overpairs. Guess I was a little off there....

Not only is this an awful board to expect me to show up with air, but when he 7-bet bluffs (wow, what an awesome thing to be able to say), I have to call $45 into a $3600 pot. The best part is that I thought my 6-bet was all in. I just hit the raise button, but apparently that left me with just enough room to give him the illusion of fold equity.

You don't know you how nervous I was when that deuce rolled off on the turn.

Back in Black

For the second time this year, I've dug myself out of a big old hole. Let's hope it's the last (that I need to). Here's the hand that did it:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50.00 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($9411)
SB ($5550)
BB ($20776)
UTG ($5000)
Hero (MP) ($5444)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, K
1 fold, Hero bets $150, 2 folds, BB calls $100

Flop: ($325) 5, 6, Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $222, BB raises to $950, Hero raises to $5294 (All-In), BB calls $4344

Turn: ($10913) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($10913) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $10913 | Rake: $2

Results:
BB had K, 5 (two pair, tens and fives).
Hero had K, K (two pair, Kings and tens).
Outcome: Hero won $10911


I actually thought for a bit on the flop about whether I wanted to ship it in or just call and look for a non-club turn. I think based on his bet-sizing he has clubs pretty much always, and most of the time he'll have other outs that will make him basically a coin flip with me (either a 5, an A, or a straight draw). That would seem to argue for a call, since I have position and this information about his hand.

Truthfully, though, I think a call gives him the advantage even though he's out of position. He knows his hand looks like a flush draw, and if I just call, he'll know that I'm looking for a non-club turn. So he has pretty much the same information that I do, but he also knows which other cards help his hand, which I do not.

Take this case, for instance. Say I just call. What if an Ace turns and he shoves? I could end up getting bluffed off the best hand. Better to suck it up, get it in, and hope I've got his kicker covered!

It was one of those nights where things were just going well. I was getting a lot of decisions right, even those I usually get wrong:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1880)
Hero (SB) ($2047)
BB ($1005)
UTG ($5521)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
UTG bets $35, 1 fold, Hero raises to $123, 1 fold, UTG calls $88

Flop: ($256) J, J, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $188, UTG calls $188

Turn: ($632) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $410, Hero calls $410

River: ($1452) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $4800 (All-In), Hero calls $1326 (All-In)

Total pot: $4104 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero had A, A (two pair, Aces and Jacks).
UTG had A, K (one pair, Jacks).
Outcome: Hero won $4102


Actually, I wasn't getting everything right. I made some big, questionable river bluffs in a heads up match. But, even that crazy image paid off eventually:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($2983.75)
Button ($2026.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
Button bets $15, Hero raises to $55, Button raises to $149, Hero raises to $444, Button raises to $852, Hero raises to $2983.75 (All-In), Button calls $1174.25 (All-In)

Flop: ($4052.50) 2, Q, 4 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($4052.50) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($4052.50) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $4052.50 | Rake: $0.50

Results:

Button had K, A (one pair, twos).
Hero had A, A (two pair, Aces and twos).
Outcome: Hero won $4052


This was really the first time we'd gone to war pre-flop, too. I mean, there are times when it might be reasonable to stack off 340 BBs to me with AK pre-flop, but this wasn't one of them.

Sexy River Value Raise

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($1836.25)
Hero (Button) ($2411.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, A
Hero bets $30, SB calls $20

Flop: ($60) A, 10, 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $44, SB calls $44

Turn: ($148) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($148) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $100, Hero raises to $333, SB calls $233

Total pot: $814 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 8, A (two pair, Aces and eights).
SB had Q, 10 (one pair, tens).
Outcome: Hero won $813.50


This was a great spot because the Villain made pretty thin value bets and I knew he would expect me to double barrel a flush draw on the turn if I had one. Honestly, as much as I'm a fan of thin value bets, I think his river bet is too thin.

Bay 101 WPT Day 1AM

Edit: Important correction here. The non-bountied live pro I busted was not Bill Gazes but rather Bill Edler.

I decided to play the Bay 101 because of the combination of a nice location, great structure/tournament director (thanks Matt Savage!), and interesting people I thought it would attract, both because of the area and the number of pros who play as "shooting stars" with $5000 bounties on their heads.

At the outset, they distributed the bounties evenly, with one or two at every table in the 5 and/or 7 seats. I was fortunate to get probably the single softest bounty in the field at my table: 2007 WSOP main event champion Jerry Yang was seated to my immediate left. He was very quiet, but friendly enough. To my surprise, he made a lot of hopeless bluffs, especially in the early stages of the tournament. That's not exactly how I expected him to play, which is maybe what he was going for. I called him down correctly once with 8s 4s on a Js 8h 3s Qd 3d board.

I did some splashing around in the early going, got into pots with weak players but couldn't make anything happen and bled away about 10% of my chips in the first hour. I lost about the same in the next hour, but then just before the first break I picked up 77 in early position. Blinds were 50/100, and because the table was playing very loose, I just min-raised to 200. Small pairs are hell to play out of position in big pots, so I was mostly looking for set value.

A young, boisterous Asian kid who seemed to be a local regular rather than an internet phenom re-raised to 650. It was the first re-raise we'd seen at our table all day, and I was very sure what he had. I called, and got a nice but not perfect Tc 8c 7s flop. There was only 1300 in the pot but 16K in the effective stacks. This guy seemed like exactly the sort to overplay a big pair here, trying to "protect" his hand, and I wanted to get the money in before a scare card came off. I was afraid that if I check-raised him he might just call, which I didn't want. So I led out for 900, he raised to 2K, I moved all in, and he called so quickly that for a second I was afraid he might have TT. But he turned over AA, looked disgusted, and failed to hit his two-outer. I went into the first break with nearly 35K, well over the average of about 22K.

After the break, blinds were 100/200. I called a raise from a tight older Japanese guy who seemed not very good with Ah 7s in the SB. The flop came AJT with one heart, and we both checked. The turn brought the Qh, giving me a flush draw and the idiot end of a gutshot to go along with my top pair. To a more aggressive player, I check here, but against this guy, I decided to bet out 700 instead, thinking he'd call with a lot of draws and worse pairs that he wouldn't bet.

Instead, he raised to 3000, leaving about 3000 behind, which was pretty much the worst thing he could do. Especially from this player, this was a very strong line. I didn't want to shove, because I was sure I did not have the best hand. It was very close between call and fold. I ultimately decided to call, but in retrospect I'm not sure that was best. The river was an off-suit 4, and I check-folded. I'm still not sure whether leading out on the turn was actually better than just check-calling. Even if I also check-called the river, it probably would have cost me the same but I would have seen my opponent's hand.

I ran into a few interesting spots against Yang where his bounty influence my decision. In one, I opened to 500 with KJs on the button, and he made it 2000 from the SB with 8000 behind. Ordinarily I would fold, but relataive to this many chips the $5000 for busting him is a huge overlay. I opted to call and fold to a shove on a T74 flop with none of my suit. He told me he had KK, and I decided that even with the bounty my call was a bad one.

A little later, he had position and a somewhat deeper stack and repopped my 500 raise to 1500. I called with QTs and again check-folded a flop that whiffed me entirely. That one I think was justified.

The guy I'd busted was replaced with Bill Gazes Edler in the 7 seat. Bill wasn't actually a bounty, but because he was known to a lot of the dealers and sitting in the bounty seat, he had to keep explaining that he wasn't actually a shooting star. I don't think he actually felt snubbed at not having a bounty, but it would have been funny if he did since dealers kept assuming that and shouting for the floor when he was all in.

It was unfortunate for me that he wasn't a bounty, because I ended up busting him. The last hand before our first break, blinds were 150/300/25. Gazes Edler, sitting on about 12K, raised to 1000 UTG+1. I called with 88 in the SB, expecting him to be very strong, and Maria Ho (who had replaced Yang on my immediate left) called in the BB. I had about 20K, and she covered me.

The flop came Jd 9d 8s, and I had to think about how I wanted the money to go in. If we check to Bill, he probably bets, then I have to raise and Maria folds probably every hand worse than mine. Instead, I led out for 1800. Maria called, and Bill moved all in. I put on a show of thinking about whether to call, hoping to entice Maria in with a wider range, but she was paying no attention at all, which was actually bad for me. Either she was already planning to fold, or she had a huge hand and was doing the classic Caro "weak-means-strong" pretending to have no interest in the hand. I finally shoved in, and she quickly folded.

Bill actually had TT, giving him something like 40% equity, but my set held up. He was very gracious about it, chatting with me briefly about the hand, then clapping me on the back and saying, "Use them well my friend." Definitely left a very favorable impression with me.

There was a middle-aged Asian guy with bad teeth but a good sense of humor who initially seemed pretty fishy. In the early levels, he was playing almost every hand, often limp-calling raises out of position. As the blinds got bigger, though, he tightened up a bit, got a bit more aggressive, and started playing reasonably well post-flop. He still had his leaks, but for a while I was really overestimating how bad he was, and it cost me.

Blinds were 200/400/50, and he hadn't limped in in ages. He called for 400, and a very tight/straightforward South Asian guy named Bobby (probably not how he spells it, but I didn't ask) on my right made it 1600 on the Button. I was in the SB with AKo with 40K. The LAG had about 24K, but Bobby covered me and I didn't think I could get AK in pre-flop profitably against him. I elected to just call the raise, expecting both of them to overplay top pair if they flopped it, such that my implied odds were very good.

The limper made it 6K. Even though he was pretty LAG, he'd only limp-raised once before, and it was with KK. I thought for a long time and folded. He showed me the 6h, and I kicked myself for an awful weak-tight fold.

Towards the end of the night, I was moved to a new, tougher table. There were three shooting stars there: David "The Dragon" Pham across the table from me, Annie Duke a few seats to his left, and Kenny Tran on my immediate right. If Annie recognized me, she didn't give any indication of it, as she has in the past.

For her part, she was looking rough. It's a popular assertion on 2+2 and other poker forums that Annie is unattractive, but when I first met her three years ago, I thought she was pretty good looking for a 40-year-old mother of four. Now, though, there were rings under her eyes and a darkness in her face, perhaps a physical manifestation of the slow corruption that affiliation with Ultimate Bet was exacting on her soul.

The first time that she raised my blind, it was 400/800/100 and she raised to 2200. Kenny Tran called in the SB, and even before I looked at my cards, I was thinking squeeze. I looked down at 85s, straightened in my seat a bit, looked around, capped my cards, did some mental arithmetic, and raised to 8000. They both folded very quickly.

Kenny Tran, as I've already said, was on my right. On my left was a big, kinda doofy Italian guy whom I've seen around at Foxwoods and the WSOP. He and Kenny got into a conversation about how many players would be left at the end of the day, and the Italian somewhat off-handedly said that he'd take the under on 50.

"Ten thousand dollars?" Kenny asked.

"Book it." And just like that, a $10,000 prop bet was made. There was some quibbling over details, such as what would happen if exactly 50 players remained (technically, the Italian had volunteered to take the under, but they confirmed the accuracy of the posted number with the tournament director before finalizing the bet, and in that time they renegotiated that 50 would be a push), but there was no doubt in my mind that either man would pay if he lost.

"Cash only," Kenny said.

"Bellagio chips?"

"Yeah, yeah, that's fine. But just like, no check."

"Check? You're talkin' to the wrong guy, check. I haven't had a checking account since... I was born."

"OK, good."

"What about Circus, Circus? Will you take Circus, Circus chips?"

Kenny laughed, but then the Italian leaned over and whispered to him (though I could hear, because I was sitting between them), "Seriously, I'll get you cash no problem. I won't have it tonight, but a lot of people owe me money, and they will pay me by Wednesday. One hundred percent." Kenny waved him away, no problem, and I believed him as well. Like I said, he was Italian.

Maria Ho was moved to the same table I was, and despite reraising me three times at our last table, had generally been staying out of my way. She went so far as to open limp her button when I was in the BB, but I found AKs and popped it to 4K. She re-raised to 9K and change, but I had only 30ish left, so I just shipped it in. She tanked for a long time, staring at me, commenting on the tension in my neck, etc. but eventually folded. Although that is what I wanted her to do, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have minded a call either.

Two hands later, the action folded to me in the SB, where I had 99. I raised to 2500, and the Italian called. The flop came KJx with two diamonds, hardly what I wanted to see. I checked and reluctantly called a 2500 bet.

Bink! The turn was a 9, and I checked again. Unfortunately, so did my opponent.

Even worse, the river brought a T, putting four a straight on the board. I bet 4500, which he hemmed and hawed and called, only to crow about the bad beat when I showed my set.

That table broke with only half an hour left in the night, and I got moved to a new one with Freddy Deeb, Joe Sebok, and Daniel Alaei. The first hand I played, I raised Deeb's blind to 2400 with 44. He called and led into me for 5000 on an AQx rainbow flop. It seemed pretty unlikely to me that he had a super strong hand, so I called, figuring I'd turn my hand into a bluff if he checked the turn. He bet 13K, though, and I folded.

As for how the day finished up, most of you know how it went for me. There were exactly 50 players left, so the bet ended in a push. And there were more than 200 registered for Day 1B before the night was up, so I'm assuming there was good turnout today. Most likely we'll need to play down from 140 or so to 36 tomorrow, which should take roughly the same 10 hours as yesterday. Hopefully I'll still be among the 36, as tables will be 6-handed on Day 3!

Bay 101 Day 1 Results

Day started with something like 136 players and 20,000 chips each. I spend most of the day in good shape, never amassing a huge stack but maintaining near or above the average. Then I made a big move on Joe Sebok on the very last hand of the night:

Daniel Alaei was on my immediate right, with Joe seated to his right. The two had been openly joking about how ridiculously tight a youngish Asian player across the table from us was. That player caught the big blind on the last hand of the night. Joe made a joke about going all in blind pre-flop to steal from him.

Blinds were 400/800/100, and Sebok open raised to 2200 with 30K behind. I thought that especially on the last hand of the night with a super tight player in the BB he could have almost anything here. Alaei called, and I was pretty sure that since he knew Sebok knew he knew the guy was tight, he didn't have a huge hand and didn't want to get into a pre-flop leveling war. He was just calling to use his position and knowledge of Joe's wide range post-flop.

Neither of them knew a thing about me. It seemed like a great spot for a squeeze play, especially since there's a $5000 bounty on Joe, giving me an overlay in the worst case scenario where he has a hand. I make it 9000 with A3o, committing myself against Sebok but leaving room to fold to Alaei. Action folds to Sebok, who moves all in. Alaei folds, I call, and he shows me AKo.

The board comes out 7c 8c 9c Tc, and neither of us has a club. I have 15 outs to chop on the river and two to win, but it's an offsuit 4 and I get busted down to 17,400 on the last hand of the night. There's something like 50 left from today, and they are expecting close to 250 to play tomorrow.

The more I think about it, the more I like this play and think I was just unlucky that Sebok had a hand. I don't know a lot about him, but based on the information I had, I don't regret the squeeze.

Was a pretty fun day on the whole, got to play with Jerry Yang, Bill Gazes, Robert Williamson III, Maria Ho, David Pham, Annie Duke, Kenny Tran, and Freddie Deeb in addition to the guys I mentioned above. I'll post a more thorough report tomorrow, then I play again on Wednesday.

Thanks for following along!

Suicidal Bluff

Although this worked, I think it's really awful play on my part. I am representing a ridiculously narrow range (like QQ and maybe KK) and even those don't necessarily make sense. This guy was just frustrating me because he wasn't folding to 3-bets ever and was just generally being a pain in the ass.

I knew he would float a continuation bet on this flop, so I was hoping that a delayed c-bet would get me more credit. When he bet the flop, I didn't think he was all that strong, but calling with down with AJ unimproved didn't quite feel right either. For what it's worth, I think he usually 4-bets AK and KK pre-flop, and if he doesn't 4-bet QQ, he probably doesn't bet the flop either. When he just calls the turn, clubs are probably a non-trivial portion of his range. He tanked for a really long time before folding the river, though, so it seems like he did fold some kind of made hand.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $20.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($3963)
Button ($6018)
Hero (SB) ($4937)
BB ($2357)
UTG ($2396)
MP ($2030)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, J
3 folds, Button bets $50, Hero raises to $188, 1 fold, Button calls $138

Flop: ($396) 3, 8, K (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $260, Hero calls $260

Turn: ($916) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $720, Hero raises to $1989, Button calls $1269

River: ($4894) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $2500 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $4894 | Rake: $3

Results:

Hero didn't show A, J (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $4891

More on the durrrr/Greenstein Hand

OK, this has sparked a lot of interest among commenters, so I think I will offer a few of my own thoughts on the hand after all. In terms of what durrrr may have been thinking and why he was successful, I don't have a lot to add to the very good analysis I already linked. Instead, I'll focus on what I think Greenstein and Eastgate could have done differently.

(If you don't know the details of the hand, Geoff recently shared a link to a YouTube clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3SKwhb_nJVQ)

I'll start with Eastgate, because my advice for him is easiest: fold pre-flop. By my count, the pot is $16,200 when it gets to Eastgate, who must call $2100 more with his 42o in the Small Blind. The 8:1 pot odds are nice, but he will be very deep out of position against 6-7 good to world-class players with a hand that virtually never makes the nuts or anything close to it. Even suited, this should probably be a fold, since with so many in the pot he's looking at reverse implied odds even when he makes a flush. Post-flop, his play is fine, and this is just a spot where he's going to lose money against a very good player. Hence why he should not be playing 24o.

For Greenstein to combat a bluff like this, he needs a strategy that will not turn his hand face-up. The deeper you get, the more you need to mix up your UTG range so that savvy opponents like Dwan can't take you off pots on "bad" flops. Barry needs to be capable of showing up with hands like A2s here. He might also benefit from limping in with AA UTG occasionally, along with a variety of other hands. This will enable him to limp-re-raise in a spot like this (again, sometimes with other hands as well as a bluff) to narrow the field and make stacks more shallow post-flop so that his Aces will be more resilient unimproved.

Post-flop, he needs to either check the Aces or be leading such a wide range here that AA will be at the top of it and he can more comfortably stack off to Dwan with it. The latter, bluffing frequently into seven players, is very hard to do, so I like checking better.

I also think he's got an easy fold when Eastgate cold calls out of the Small Blind. But the central thing is that, especially when very deep, he needs to play all of his hands in a way that Dwan can't put him on exactly an overpair or the VERY occasional (given the T in Dwan's own hand) quads/full house.

Great High Stakes Poker Bluff by Tom "Durrrr" Dwan

I'm not much for watching televised poker, but from what I've seen, if you're going to watch anything, High Stakes Poker is the show to watch. Although I didn't see this hand go down, I heard it discussed quite a bit by Aaron "aejones" Jones and Rob "Bobbfitos" Eckstut on the latest 2+2 Pokercast. PokerNews commentator picks up on just about every complex detail that Aaron and Rob covered on the show, so I don't have much to add to his commentary. It's just a fascinating hand that shows how a total sicko like Dwan can run circles around event world-class players like Barry Greenstein and Gabe Kaplan (who, from what I've heard of his commentary on the hand, didn't seem to get that Dwan was turning his pair into a bluff). So I definitely recommend that you have a look at Daniel Skolovy's recap and commentary:

"Now although even an amateur could read Barry's hand, it takes a real pro to have the stones to bluff into seven people and continue on the turn.

durrrr is that pro and Barry should know that, and thus should know that when his hand is as faceup as it is, durrrr has the potential to recognize this and bluff him off of it.

Which means you get into a leveling war of he knows that I know that he knows and he should be thinking just high enough to know that durrrr knows his hand and can thus bluff him off it, which could turn this from a fold to a call/shove."

Deeeep Bluff

When you get to about the 2/4 or 3/6 level, an important goal to set for yourself is to make it hell for your opponents to show down marginal hands against you when they are out of position. The deeper you get, the wider the definition of marginal becomes, and here the stars really aligned nicely for me. The Villain is an occasional short stacker, and although he had a bunch of money spread out across a few 10/20 tables tonight, I still felt that he'd be a little uncomfortable with the idea of a $17K pot:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $20.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($6735)
UTG ($2000)
MP ($11444)
Hero (CO) ($8761)
Button ($3940)
SB ($6294)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6, 9
1 fold, MP bets $70, Hero calls $70, 2 folds, BB calls $50

Flop: ($220) 10, 2, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, MP bets $160, Hero calls $160, 1 fold

Turn: ($540) Q (2 players)
MP bets $400, Hero raises to $1555, MP calls $1155

River: ($3650) 5 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $2977, 1 fold

Total pot: $3650 | Rake: $3


Honestly, my initial plan was not to bluff again on the river. I felt that the turn raise would be enough to threaten his stack and get him off of an overpair or AQ-type hand. He called so quickly, though, that I just felt he couldn't have a set. With the interest I'm showing in the pot and the draws on the board, I think he would at least consider jamming the turn with a big hand like that. So, I decided to throw a big river bluff at him to represent a set or straight.

Worst Pair, Worst Kicker, Value Bet

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($1905)
Hero (Button) ($1104.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3, 2
Hero bets $30, SB calls $20

Flop: ($60) K, 3, K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $44, SB calls $44

Turn: ($148) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($148) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $88, SB calls $88

Total pot: $324 | Rake: $0.50

Results:

Hero had 3, 2 (two pair, Kings and threes).
SB had 8, A (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: Hero won $323.50


Not even a thin value bet, really. Just a small illustration of why it sucks to play so passively and predictably from out of position.

Turn Check-Raise Overbet Bluff

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($2955.50)
Button ($4698)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, K
Button bets $30, Hero calls $20

Flop: ($60) 6, 7, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $44, Button calls $44

Turn: ($148) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $111, Hero raises to $666, 1 fold

Total pot: $370 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero didn't show Q, K (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $369.50


People don't like it when you try to take the betting impetus away from them. I like leading here with KQ because it's ahead of a lot of air but can't do anything but fold if you check and your opponent bets at this flop. Plus, he may fold some random A-high hands, so it's not like you're only folding out worse.

Still, I think his calling range is quite wide on the flop: any pair, any draw (including sometimes a bare T, but probably not a bare 4), and some random floats. Because of the nature of the board, though, he's probably not flat calling here with strong hands like two pair or better. That means he almost never has a full house on the turn.

The overbet serves to polarize my range to monsters (probably A6 or better) and bluffs. And although I happened to lead with air here, I'll often have some piece of the board when I lead into him. Thus, from his perspective, it doesn't look like I'll often get to the turn with a hand that needs to bluff like this.

If he's really stubborn, he could still call a standard check-raise on the turn with a lot of his range, but the overbet makes it very difficult. He definitely can't float with his draws because he'll often be drawing dirty or dead.

Even with one pair, he has a lot to worry about it. Ordinarily, we think of leverage as meaning a small bet (relative to the pot) that nevertheless forces a big decision on an opponent. But there's no reason the bet has to be small. Because of our stack sizes, an overbet actually achieves some decent leverage here. Even when he has a one pair hand, he has to fear a huge river bluff.

In the end, my expectation was that he would not call with less than trips. In light of the flop range I gave him, that translates into a huge percentage of folds. It's an expensive bluff, but relative to a pot-sized check-raise, I think the overbet provides vastly disproportionate fold equity.

You Could Have Been Value Betting Worse I Think?

I was playing a decent but not great player heads up, and the match had been close, with first him then me having the upper hand, until I tried to bluff him off of trips:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($2045.50)
Hero (Button) ($2488.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, Q
Hero bets $30, SB calls $20

Flop: ($60) J, 10, 10 (2 players)
SB bets $40, Hero calls $40

Turn: ($140) 3 (2 players)
SB bets $100, Hero raises to $333, SB calls $233

River: ($806) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2085.75 (All-In),

SB: sick... you hit the flush?

SB calls $1642.50 (All-In)

Total pot: $4091 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 8, Q (one pair, tens).
SB had K, 10 (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: SB won $4090.50

SB: i am not good enough to fold trips

Foucault: evidently not


Of course it's not generally a good idea to try to bluff someone off of trips, and if the river hadn't flushed I wouldn't have attempted it. It's not that I was trying to represent a flush but rather that the flush coming in makes it a very good time for me to make a huge shove if I have a full house, most likely JT or JJ. The huge shove is designed to polarize my range, so that it won't matter that he has trips (except for decreasing the combinations of boats I could have). Basically, I am either bluffing or have him beat.

Here's the very next hand, where he once again can't lay down trips:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($4090.50)
Hero (SB) ($1000)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, K
Button bets $30, Hero calls $20

Flop: ($60) 10, Q, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $40, Hero raises to $120, Button calls $80

SB: also you could have been value betting worse I think?

Turn: ($300) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $200, Button calls $200

River: ($700) 4 (2 players)

SB: like any T?

Hero bets $650 (All-In), Button calls $650

Total pot: $2000 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Button mucked 9, J (three of a kind, nines).
Hero had J, K (straight, King high).
Outcome: Hero won $1999.50


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($3353.25)
Hero (Button) ($1717.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, A
Hero bets $30, SB raises to $120, Hero calls $90

Flop: ($240) 4, 2, 7 (2 players)
SB bets $140, Hero calls $140

Turn: ($520) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $222, SB calls $222

River: ($964) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1235.25 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $964 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero didn't show A, A.
Outcome: Hero won $963.50


This wasn't a good value shove by me, but it did show me that the table dynamic had shifted as a result of his snapping off that big bluff. Now, he was going to give me credit on my shoves.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($2656.75)
Hero (Button) ($2410.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, J
Hero bets $30, SB calls $20

Flop: ($60) K, 4, 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $40, SB calls $40

Turn: ($140) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $90, SB calls $90

River: ($320) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $250, SB calls $250

Total pot: $820 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had K, J (three of a kind, Kings).
SB mucked 8, 8 (two pair, Kings and eights).
Outcome: Hero won $819.50


In this hand, I show him that I can value bet thinly (on the turn, here, nothing thin about the river) in a spot where he thinks I'm going to have a polarized range (hence his calldown with 88- he assumes I either hit the A or am bluffing in a common spot).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($2261.75)
Hero (SB) ($2805.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, K
Button bets $30, Hero raises to $111, Button calls $81

Flop: ($222) 7, 10, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $169, Button calls $169

Turn: ($560) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $425, Button calls $425

River: ($1410) A (2 players)
Hero bets $2100.25 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $1410 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero didn't show Q, K (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $1409.50


This time, the big bluff works. Given the texture of the board, I think it's very likely that he raises flop or turn if he has two pair or better. Something like a pair and busted draw is more likely for him. And even if he does have two pair, I think it's now plausible for him to think I can shove Aces up, so his weaker two pair may not be good. Pretty much the only thing I'm worried about here is that he himself rivered Aces up. Otherwise, I expect this to work.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($1889.50)
Hero (Button) ($3175.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3, 3
Hero bets $30, SB calls $20

Flop: ($60) 2, 6, 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $40, SB raises to $120, Hero raises to $269, SB calls $149

Turn: ($598) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $376, SB raises to $1590.50 (All-In), Hero calls $1214.50

River: ($3779) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $3779 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 3, 3 (three of a kind, threes).
SB had K, 5 (high card, Ace).
Outcome: Hero won $3778.50


And that cleaned him out.

Recent Publications

This month I've got two publications to report. First, my latest article for 2+2 Magazine, titled Float On, is now appearing in the March issue. It's an analysis of when, whom, and how to bluff-call, including an in-depth example:

Suppose that when your opponent bets, you think there is a 30% chance that he has a hand strong enough to continue and a 70% chance that his hand is too weak to stand a raise. If you raise his bet, you will win the pot 70% of the time and lose the amount of your bluff 30% of the time. As long as you choose an appropriate raise size, that’s a very profitable proposition for you.

If your opponent will play predictably on the turn, though, and many will, then it may be even more profitable just to call his bet and see what he does on the turn. The 70% of the time that he does not have anything, he will check, and you can now wager the same amount that you would have with a raise, or maybe even a little less, but steal the pot 100% of the time. The 30% of the time that he does have a hand, he’ll bet again and you can fold, saving yourself the amount that a bluff-raise would have cost you.

I'm also featured in Kristy Arnett's new Run It Twice series on Cardplayer:

People want to be able to play a lot of hands from late position, which makes sense because that’s where you make most of your money. If you are getting three-bet a whole lot from the blinds, you have to fold some of the weaker hands that you are raising with, so some people have started making these small raises so that they can call more three-bets preflop and also lose less money if they fold when they get three-bet. It’s an adaptation some people have made to enable themselves to play more hands from late position.

Deep Run in the FTP 750K

The first few levels of this tournament were pretty uneventful, but eventually I won a coin flip to get up to an average stack. Then I floated for a few hours, through the bubble, on twenty big blinds or so.

This was maybe the most interesting hand I played, fairly standard but important example of structuring the betting so that you induce bluffs/bad value bets and get in the last bet:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 50 Ante (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t12150)
UTG+1 (t13040)
Hero (MP1) (t12835)
MP2 (t7320)
MP3 (t4812)
CO (t13968)
Button (t12210)
SB (t24562)
BB (t9137)

Hero's M: 12.22

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, J
2 folds, Hero bets t800, MP2 calls t800, 5 folds

Flop: (t2650) Q, 3, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets t800, Hero raises to t2985, 1 fold

Total pot: t4250

Results:
Hero didn't show K, J (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t4250


I picked up some hands, ran up a stack, and managed to get this nit off of what he claimed (and I'm inclined to believe) was AJ:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 600/1200 Blinds 150 Ante (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t65491)
UTG (t26612)
UTG+1 (t13580)
MP1 (t14358)
Hero (MP2) (t42063)
CO (t25154)
Button (t69958)
SB (t41386)

Hero's M: 14.02

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, 6
3 folds, Hero bets t2400, 3 folds, BB calls t1200

Flop: (t6600) 10, J, 3 (2 players)
BB bets t4800, Hero raises to t21000, 1 fold

Total pot: t16200

Results:
Hero didn't show K, 6 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t16200


With my big stack, I stole blinds for a while then got about 1/3 of my chips in with 99 vs 44 and lost that to get kinda short. Sitting on less than 10BB's, I got 99 in the BB and joked to my girlfriend, who was watching at the time, than I wouldn't be folding this "unless that guy goes all in then that guy goes all in, then that guy goes all in..." which of course is pretty much happened:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 1200/2400 Blinds 300 Ante (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t44934)
SB (t69419)
Hero (BB) (t20218)
UTG (t108206)
UTG+1 (t76830)
MP1 (t95893)
MP2 (t23256)
CO (t68860)

Hero's M: 3.37

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 9
2 folds, MP1 bets t6000, MP2 raises to t22956 (All-In), 2 folds, SB raises to t69119 (All-In), 2 folds

Flop: (t56712) 2, 8, 4 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t56712) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t56712) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t56712

Results:
SB had A, J (one pair, sevens).
MP2 had K, A (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: MP2 won t56712

Sadly, SB's atrocious call chased me off of the winning hand.

Another simple but important thing I was doing when short was raising less than all in even when I had a hand that I wanted to shove pre-flop. By raising 25-33% of my stack, I was occasionally able to get people to make some awful post-flop folds:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 1200/2400 Blinds 300 Ante (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 (t77968)
CO (t4029)
Hero (Button) (t26818)
SB (t105506)
BB (t76230)
UTG (t83293)
UTG+1 (t56640)
MP1 (t66412)
MP2 (t74410)

Hero's M: 4.26

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, A
6 folds, Hero bets t7200, SB calls t6000, 1 fold

Flop: (t19500) 4, 10, 6 (2 players)
SB bets t7200, Hero raises to t19318 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: t33900

Results:
Hero didn't show J, A (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t33900

This outcome is so much better than getting either a call or a fold pre-flop. People are very willing to suck if you just give them the chance.

My short stack ninja'ing accumulated a good deal of chips for me, despite getting a walk with QQ in the BB, and eventually I got JJ in against A8s to double. Sadly, it wasn't too last. A few orbits later, I lost a coin flip with AQs to 99, bustin in 118th place. This marks the third time this year that I've run well into the top 1% of one of these huge field Sunday tournaments, but I still don't have anything to show for it.

Fourth time's the charm?

Holy $%^& I Bluffed a Tourney Donk!

From yesterday's Sunday Million:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $200+$15 Tournament, 600/1200 Blinds 100 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) (t30683)
UTG (t23180)
UTG+1 (t69583)
MP1 (t45234)
MP2 (t42249)
MP3 (t22891)
CO (t38571)
Button (t32005)
SB (t14539)

Hero's M: 11.36

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3, 5
5 folds, CO calls t1200, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: (t3900) 5, 9, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets t2400, Hero calls t2400

Turn: (t8700) K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (t8700) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets t4800, Hero raises to t26983 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: t18300

Results:
Hero didn't show 3, 5 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t18300

Hell, maybe I just had the best hand anyway.

There was also this:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $200+$15 Tournament, 1000/2000 Blinds 200 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) (t37483)
UTG (t57104)
UTG+1 (t76633)
MP1 (t92084)
MP2 (t57631)
MP3 (t36141)
CO (t25460)
Button (t28135)
SB (t20528)

Hero's M: 7.81

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3, 3
5 folds, CO bets t6000, 2 folds, Hero calls t4000

Flop: (t14800) Q, 9, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets t31283 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: t14800

Results:

Hero didn't show 3, 3 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t14800

I don't use the stop-n-go very often, but this seemed like a good spot. The guy was almost certainly not folding pre-flop, and on a flop like this, he's likely to fold a hand that he would not (or should not, anyway) if he could see my cards. Note that he's only got like 18K behind.


I ended up going quite deep, making the top 200 (out of 8800), on a coin flip:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $200+$15 Tournament, 12500/25000 Blinds 2500 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t723763)
Hero (BB) (t515200)
UTG (t1486381)
UTG+1 (t618409)
MP1 (t264735)
MP2 (t489035)
MP3 (t337651)
CO (t1006328)
Button (t405851)

Hero's M: 8.59

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, K
3 folds, MP2 bets t61000, 3 folds, SB raises to t721263 (All-In), Hero calls t487700 (All-In), 1 fold

Flop: (t1108900) 6, Q, 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t1108900) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t1108900) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t1108900

Results:
SB had J, J (two pair, Queens and Jacks).
Hero had A, K (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: SB won t1108900

Don't Make It So Obvious

Also, don't raise 52s in middle position.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($1033)
UTG ($1233.55)
MP ($3131.75)
CO ($1000)
Hero (Button) ($1150)
SB ($2026)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, A
1 fold, MP bets $30, 1 fold, Hero calls $30, SB calls $25, 1 fold

Flop: ($100) K, 6, 9 (3 players)
SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $44, 1 fold, MP raises to $3060, Hero calls $1076 (All-In)

Turn: ($2340) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($2340) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $2340 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had Q, A (one pair, Aces).
MP had 5, 2 (high card, Ace).
Outcome: Hero won $2337

Elaboration

On my recent post, "Defining His Range Into Oblivion", tce left a comment that I felt warranted a new post:

This is a tantalizing post with some really interesting ideas that need more meat. Can you say more? In my experience, trying to blow someone off an Ax hand is just too disruptive to my bankroll. Many players are just too stubborn and will chk-call all three streets. I finally learned that my best counter-strategy is to simply bet the hell out of my hand when I can beat Ax. Turning 2nd pair into a bluff in the hopes of blowing someone off Ax? I dunno, I need to hear more.

It's a good question. This concept isn't just a neat way to bluff. The point is that when you have position and a good sense of your opponent's range, you have a generous edge because of your ability to make better decisions on the river. You want to have a big pot and also enough money behind for a big river bet, ideally with nothing left over in the effective stacks, to maximize that edge. Then, it's just a matter of actually making that river decision.

Against this opponent, I'm confident that in a 4-bet pot, a bluff in that spot would be very profitable. Against a looser opponent who will not fold Ax, then you will value shove more hands and bluff less.

Before I could even get around to posting that, I found myself in another heads up match against the same opponent where several exemplary hands arose. Here's one where I employ the same line for value with AA:

Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $2,937.50
BB: $2,044.50

Pre-Flop: A A dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero raises to $30, BB raises to $120, Hero raises to $270, BB calls $150

Flop: ($540) 3 T 9 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $222, BB calls $222

Turn: ($984) 9 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $444, BB folds

Results: $984 Pot ($0.50 Rake)
Hero mucked A A and WON $983.50 (+$491.50 NET)


And an example of how one might defend against such a line:

Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $3,578
Hero (BB): $3,958.50

Pre-Flop: J J dealt to Hero (BB)
SB raises to $30, Hero raises to $111, SB raises to $265, Hero calls $154

Flop: ($530) 5 5 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets $285, Hero calls $285

Turn: ($1,100) J (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets $865, Hero calls $865

River: ($2,830) T (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets $2,163 and is All-In, Hero calls $2,163

Results: $7,156 Pot ($0.50 Rake)
SB showed 3 5 (three of a kind, Fives) and LOST (-$3,578 NET)
Hero showed J J (a full house, Jacks full of Fives) and WON $7,155.50 (+$3,577.50 NET)


The point here isn't just that I coolered him. I put him on either a big hand (which would probably include KK and AA) or a bluff. No matter which he has, I can just check-call my boat and let him stick the money in by the river, since that's what he'll do with either type of hand. Not only do I induce bluffs, but I also make it tougher for him to bluff and value bet me with a line like this in the future.

Before you start feeling too bad for this guy, realize that this was payback for the last time he re-raised me with garbage:

Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $3,829
BB: $2,000

Pre-Flop: J J dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero raises to $30, BB raises to $120, Hero calls $90

Flop: ($240) 3 2 T (2 Players)
BB bets $125, Hero calls $125

Turn: ($490) 5 (2 Players)
BB bets $365, Hero raises to $3,584 and is All-In, BB