by Andrew Brokos
Originally Published in Two Plus Two Magazine, March 2008 issue
Last month, I argued that knowledge of a NLHE player’s competence on the flop should sometimes influence your pre-flop decisions against him. This is even more true when it comes to his turn and river arsenal, which will be the subject of this article. A good grasp, or even a good guess, of your opponent’s turn and river play can affect your decisions on earlier streets, possibly turning a call into a fold, a fold into a call, or a raise into a slow-play.
Most players tend to play less deceptively, which is to say less well, on the turn and river than they do pre-flop and on the flop. This is, among other things, a matter of inexperience. Every player will see more pre-flop hands and more flops in his career than he will turns and rivers. Thus, he will have less practice playing the later streets. The turn and river are also where bets tend to be largest and the equity of the losing hand lowest. Many players will be more comfortable semi-bluffing 5% of their stack with 30% equity on the flop than making a pure bluff for 65% of their stack with 0% equity on the river.
What this means for you is that you may be able to play more hands pre-flop and on the flop against an opponent whom you know will not give you difficult decisions when the bets get large. Conversely, against opponents who do play very well on later streets, you may need to tighten up and play more deceptively early in the hand.
Establishing a Read
If you are playing in a tournament or a relatively low stakes cash game (roughly 2/4 NL online or 5/10 NL live), it is probably safe to assume that an unknown opponent will play straightforwardly on the turn and river unless he demonstrates otherwise. Many tricky plays are literally not in his arsenal. That is to say, he will not check-raise bluff, make thin value bets, fire a second or third barrel with air, or turn a made hand into a bluff. Slow-playing is pretty much the only deceptive play for which you should give an unknown opponent credit.
Determining whether an opponent is capable of these more advanced plays can be surprisingly simple and often requires very few observations. Since the average player will not make moves like these almost ever, observing someone make even one of these plays is often enough to establish him as a tricky opponent. All bets are off and you should assume he is capable of any of the above until he proves otherwise.
Similarly, you should note any time that another player passes up a good opportunity to make such a play. Suppose that you are watching a hand where the pre-flop raiser is in position and bets an A74 rainbow flop, bets a Q on the turn, and then checks last to act when a T on the river completes an unlikely backdoor flush and backdoor straight. If this player wins the pot with AQ, it’s a good bet that he is not going to be making any remotely thin value bets against you.
The Bluff Raise
From straight-forward players, a raise on the turn or river nearly always indicates a monster hand, often a good two pair or better. If you suspect your opponent to be incapable of a bluff raise, then you should rarely play for pot control on the turn. Suppose, for instance, that you hold a medium-strength made hand such as top pair or a weak overpair. When your opponent calls your flop bet, you suspect that he has either a draw, a worse pair, or a slow-played set. Many players will check the turn here for fear of building a big pot when they don’t know where they stand.
But straight-forward opponents will let you know where you stand! You can bet again, expecting worse pairs and draws to call or fold. If your opponent raises, you have an easy fold, since he will almost always have a set or something that improved to two pair. This bet extracts additional value from weaker pairs and avoids giving a free card to draws without the risk of losing value to a bluff raise, since you don’t expect your opponent to make such a play.
An important exception occurs on the turn when stacks are such that a raise will enable your opponent to put all the money in. In this case, many players will stick it in with any hand they want to continue playing. But when they raise with money behind, they will have a very strong hand.
Against opponents who can bluff or semi-bluff raise the turn, you’ll need to check one pair hands more often, or be willing to felt them to a raise. This can be very dangerous to do from out of position, however, since you won’t necessarily know what to do if your opponent bets the turn and river, either. Thus, your best option may be to check medium strength hands on the flop, especially when out of position. Although you’ll actually get less information about your opponent’s hand, the pot will be smaller and his range will be wider, which makes it easier and more profitable for you to take your pair to showdown.
Giving Up on the Turn
Harrington on Hold ‘Em has made the flop continuation bet nearly ubiquitous, even among casual players. Consequently, flop bets get called a lot lighter these days, and better players will occasionally follow-up their continuation bets with bluffs on the turn and sometimes even the river when they suspect that you don’t have much. More straight-forward players, however, will bet almost any flop after raising pre-flop but then give up on the turn if they have less than top pair or a good draw.
Knowing which kind of opponent you are up against can make a world of difference to your flop play. From a game theory perspective, optimal play dictates that a player’s range for betting again on the turn contain a good mix of bluffs and value bets. Failure to bluff the turn with a good frequency is a leak that you can and should exploit.
If you know that your opponent often gives up on the turn, you can call his continuation bets extremely light on the flop. Any pair or any draw, even a gutshot, can be enough to see the turn when in position against a very predictable player. If he bets again, you fold unless you’ve improved your hand, and if he checks, you take the pot away from him with a bet of your own.
Stepping back further, the ability to make a play like this enables you to take more flops in position against such a player. Against an opponent who uses continuation bets well, you ordinarily must consider not only your equity against his raising range pre-flop but also the frequency with which you’ll be able to continue past the flop. Knowing that you will often steal profitably on the turn enables you to call with less of hand on the flop, which in turn enables you to call with less of a hand pre-flop. Against a raise from someone who gives up very predictably on the turn, you could conceivably play almost any suited hand with a broadway card or suited two-gapper on your button, since you’ll be able to call the flop with as little as a gutshot draw.
Multi-Street Bluffs
Against an opponent who will fire second and third barrels with good frequency, you’ll need to tighten up pre-flop and on the flop, even when you have position. It won’t be so easy to steal from him on the turn, which means you’ll need more of a hand to call the flop, which means you’ll need to narrow your pre-flop calling range to hands that can withstand more post-flop action. Weaker broadway hands like QJo will be very difficult to play, since you may face a tough decision even you make top pair.
Smaller pairs become more valuable, however, because even though it may be harder to play them for their showdown value unimproved, you will almost always know where you stand when you flop a set. Plus, an aggressive opponent who often fires a second barrel on the turn will lose bigger pots when you do hit your set whether he has a strong or a weak hand. Thus, you should often slowplay big flopped hands like sets against these players, knowing that you will often win additional bets whether or not they improve their hand.
Particularly when out of position, you also may need to throw away weak draws on the flop. A bare flush draw, for instance, cannot count on getting a free river simply by calling the flop, and thus cannot call a large bet. Furthermore, because your opponent has a good mix of bluffs in his range, there is also no guarantee that he’ll have a hand to pay you off even when your draw does come in. Thus, both your immediate and your implied odds are decreased, and a fold will often be correct.
Thin Value Bets
Strange as it may seem, these could almost be included in the above section about multi-street bluffs. The truth is that the thin value bet and the big bluff are two sides of the same coin, tactics that go hand in hand. An opponent who makes big bluffs expects to be called down light and so can also bet more marginal hands for value. Conversely, because he is capable of betting a lot of hands for value, it is difficult to call him down light. You can’t simply determine that he must have either a monster hand or a bluff, because he is also capable of thin value bets.
That’s how it’s supposed to work, anyway. If you recognize a player doing one but not the other, you should adapt your play accordingly. Against someone who makes a lot of multi-street bluffs but won’t value bet thinly, then you can get a lot of value from one pair hands simply by checking and calling, giving him rope to hang himself. You should look for opportunities to play pots with this player, in or out of position, when holding big pairs or broadway cards that can flop big pairs. Don’t re-raise him pre-flop, and don’t raise him with your one pair hands. Just let him do the betting.
If your opponent makes thin value bets but doesn’t bluff very often, then you can also play more hands against him since you won’t face as many tough decisions. If he’s betting, you can be sure that he at least thinks he has the best hand. You can also look to check-raise him more often, since he’ll try to extract value from his marginal hands rather than playing them for pot control. You should be check-raising both as a bluff or semi-bluff and for value, since he’ll face a tough decision either way when he only has one pair.
An opponent who both bluffs and value bets well across all streets is a true expert, and you’ll do best by staying out of his way. Look for excuses to fold to his raises pre-flop. He uses his position well, especially on later streets, so when you’re out of position, try to end the hand early or at least make the stacks as shallow as possible. Try to re-raise him when you have a hand you want to play, and check-raise often with bluffs, semi-bluffs, monsters, and medium-strength hands. The more money you get into the pot early, the fewer opportunities he’ll have to outplay you on later streets.