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Episode 253 with Bryan Devonshire

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & welcome!
12:43 – Strategy

Strategy

It’s a 2c/5c NLHE zoom poker game, 6 handed, on Bovada. I have $10.50 in my stack and villain has me covered, so we are at 210 blinds effective.

I am first to act with black QQ. I elect to limp and immediately get raised to 20c by UTG +1. It folds back around to me. I call.

We go to the flop with 47 cents in the pot. Qd Jc 9d. I check, and villain checks back.

Turn is an offsuit Jack, I check Villain bet 33c into 47c, and I raise pot, making it $1.46 to go. He calls.

We go to the river with $3.39 in the pot and about $8.80 in effective stacks. River is the 5 of hearts. I elect to overbet about 1.5x pot, $5.18.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
8:32 – Strategy
22:46 – Interview

Strategy

The hand comes from a $400 buy-in WSOP circuit event at Foxwoods. We are nearly at the bubble. 56 players remain and 54 make the money. The blinds are $2,500 – $5,000 with a $5,000 big blind ante. I’m on the button with AK offsuit and about 130k in chips. It folds to the highjack who has about 700k chips. I don’t have any reads, but he is the biggest stack at the table. He raises to 20k. I fold.

Timestamps

0:30 hello
3:07 danny sprung (featuring strategy)

Strategy

1st hand after 1st break, I have Red Kings. I raise UTG, and am 3 bet by a straightforward player. We are 100BB deep at this point. I call.

Flop T63 Rainbow, we both check.

Turn is Jd, bringing backdoor diamond draw. I bet 1/2 pot and Villain raised.

_________

I open EP, Villain 3-bets, and I flat call AKdd.

The flop was a spectacular Kh4d2d, I checked, Villain continued, and I made a very big check raise.

Derek’s first appearance on the show was Episode 16. Follow him on Twitter!

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Strategy
21:55 Killingbird

Strategy

$0.02/$0.05 no-limit, $5 effective stacks. UTG raises to $0.16, Hero calls in MP with 22, BN calls.

($0.55) 3s 8c 2d. UTG bets $0.18, Hero calls, BN calls.

($1.09) Tc. UTG bets $0.80, Hero calls.

($2.69) Ks. UTG bets $1.39, Hero calls.

Timestamps

0:30 hello
24:19 strategy

Links

Bundyville
Stone Mattress
Underworld

Strategy

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/28666025_17A2638EF1

HH below for those who can’t open Boomplayer.

PokerStars Hand #190740522966: Tournament #2378947329, $500+$500+$50 USD Hold’em No Limit – Level VIII (500/1000) – 2018/09/06 15:38:54 ET
Table ‘2378947329 32’ 8-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: MrSweets28 (151471 in chips, $1000 bounty)
Seat 2: twirlpro (103945 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 3: ThePateychuk (33893 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 4: flavioreis88 (32690 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 5: dlanger610 (21467 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 6: foucault82 (106373 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 7: gremistaAK (61218 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 8: abarone68 (40999 in chips, $750 bounty)
MrSweets28: posts the ante 125
twirlpro: posts the ante 125
ThePateychuk: posts the ante 125
flavioreis88: posts the ante 125
dlanger610: posts the ante 125
foucault82: posts the ante 125
gremistaAK: posts the ante 125
abarone68: posts the ante 125
flavioreis88: posts small blind 500
dlanger610: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to foucault82 [Ah Kh]
foucault82: raises 1222 to 2222
gremistaAK: raises 4778 to 7000
abarone68: folds
MrSweets28: raises 9500 to 16500
twirlpro: folds
ThePateychuk: folds
flavioreis88: folds
dlanger610: folds
foucault82: calls 14278
gremistaAK: calls 9500
*** FLOP *** [6c 5c 3s]
foucault82: checks
gremistaAK: checks
MrSweets28: bets 12500
foucault82: calls 12500
gremistaAK: folds
*** TURN *** [6c 5c 3s] [2d]
foucault82: checks
MrSweets28: checks
*** RIVER *** [6c 5c 3s 2d] [6h]
foucault82: bets 77248 and is all-in
MrSweets28: folds
Uncalled bet (77248) returned to foucault82
foucault82 collected 77000 from pot
foucault82: doesn’t show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 77000 | Rake 0
Board [6c 5c 3s 2d 6h]
Seat 1: MrSweets28 folded on the River
Seat 2: twirlpro folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 3: ThePateychuk (button) folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 4: flavioreis88 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: dlanger610 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: foucault82 collected (77000)
Seat 7: gremistaAK folded on the Flop
Seat 8: abarone68 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)

Bloch discussed Full Tilt Poker and Black Friday at length with Diamond Flush Poker. We discussed the subject, and The Lederer Files, with Matt Parvis on Episode 7.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
11:48 – Strategy
34:40 – Andy Bloch

Timestamps

0:30 hello
23:50 strat
45:32 interview

Strategy

Our strategy discussion is a follow-up to Nate’s analysis of Phil Ivey’s bustout hand from the 2018 WSOP Main Event on Episode 264.

Our first interview with Clayton was Episode 74. We discussed his 96th place finish in the 2015 Main Event on Episode 145. And in 2017, we talked about how he prepares for the WSOP on Episode 216.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
25:25 – strat

Strategy

Sorry, you’re on your own. I’m on vacation!

Timestamps

0:30 – NOT hello and welcome
52:33 – Strategy

Strategy Hand 1

Blinds are 600-1200 with a 100 ante, and we have 24,500 in our stack pre-flop (so 20BB). SB completes, and I look down at KcKd. Villain’s stack is 24,000. Hero checks.

Pot (3100) Effective Stacks (22,700)

Flop is: 9s4d3c

Villain leads for 2000. Hero raises to 4700. Villain shoves for 20,700. We have to call 16,000 to win 30,500.

Strategy Hand 2

I am in the button. 3 limpers to me. I had 17,200 and QTo (no spade).

The level is 800/1600 with 200 antes.

With 11 BB, I limped behind. The blinds came along and we had a 6 way pot.

The flop was Ts 9s 6x (pot: 11,400)

It checked to the main Villian who bet 3,000. Hero calls, the rest fold.

The turn came a brick – I noted it as 4x although it could have been a 3x or 2x.

Villian leads for 4K.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
3:47 Strategy
21:46 Helen Ellis

Strategy

1/2 NL

Villain straddles, I raise AdQd to $16 from MP and get 2 callers, Villain raises to $40.

I look at his stack and see what looks like $60ish in red with a $100 bill. I call, other two fold.

Flop AsKc6s (pot $112)

Checks to me and I bet $70. He raises all in and I learn he has two hundred dollar bills and it’s $140 more to me…

Timestamps

0:30 Hello
4:07 Strategy
29:45 Dick pt iii

Strategy

2/5 NL. My Stack is about 770 and all players involve cover. Two limps and I raise to 25$ in HJ with Ks2s. Button 3 Bets to 70$, both limpers call, and I call.

Pot is 287 -rake Flop Comes: AcKc2h

Checks to Button who bets 125, both original callers fold, Hero raises to 300, Button calls.

Turn: Ad

Both check.

River: Qd

I check, He shoves 400.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello
8:24 strat
34:35 – dick pt 1

Strategy

Winning Poker Network Game #1128438874: No Limit Holdem ($0.05/$0.10) [2018/02/20 01:29:56 UTC]

Table: (PRR) Dilong – 4
Seats: 9
Seat 2: kingsilence ($17.70)
Seat 3: eko4gg ($4)
Seat 4: BigGigantic ($17.83)
Seat 6: golfboyseven ($19.02)
Seat 7: SecretSquirrel ($12.21)
Seat 8: riffjax ($17.30)
Seat 9: gazayute ($12.74)
Button is seat 6
SecretSquirrel: posts small blind $0.05
riffjax: posts big blind $0.10

*** HOLE CARDS ***
riffjax: dealt [Ah Kc]
gazayute: folds
kingsilence: folds
eko4gg: folds
BigGigantic: folds
golfboyseven: folds
SecretSquirrel: raises $0.15
riffjax: raises $0.50
SecretSquirrel: calls $0.40

*** FLOP *** [3d 4c 5h]
SecretSquirrel: checks
riffjax: bets $0.57
SecretSquirrel: raises $1.14
riffjax: calls $0.57

*** TURN *** [3d 4c 5h] [As]
SecretSquirrel: checks
riffjax: bets $1.65
SecretSquirrel: calls $1.65

*** RIVER *** [3d 4c 5h] [As] [9c]
SecretSquirrel: raises all-in $8.82
riffjax ??

Part One is now live, and the rest should be going up over the course of the next week or so.

If you’re not yet a Tournament Poker Edge member, let this be your impetus to sign up!

Timestamps

0:30 hello
9:35 strat
51:43 extra strat

Strategy

Hand 1 – 3/5 NL

Couple of limps, CO raises to $25, BN calls, Hero calls Ah 6h in the SB, one MP limper calls.

Ac 2h Ks. Checks to CO who bets $55, BN folds, Hero calls, MP calls.

8h ($280 in pot). Checks to CO, CO bets $125, Hero calls, MP calls.

8d ($655 in pot). Checks to CO who bets $285. Hero?

Hand 2 – Tournament, effective stacks 35bb

CO opens 2.5bb, Hero calls 9d 8d in the SB.

9s 5h 4d (8.5b in pot). Checks to CO, who bets 9bb. Hero calls.

5s (26.5bb in pot). Both check.

Js (26.5bb in pot). Check, CO shoves, Hero?

My interview with Christian Soto provided all of that at a critical moment, coming just hours after one of the more frustrating poker experiences of the year. By chance, we’d been seated next to each other late on Day 2 of the WPT Main Event at Maryland Live! After crushing for much of the day, I made a critical mistake and lost more than I should have with AK vs AA, which resulted in a smaller cash than I’d anticipated. Talking through and laughing about the day’s events with Christian was great fun and great medicine, and judging from the audience response, it seems to have made for a great listen as well.

Happy new year everyone! Thanks for spending some of 2017 with us, and we look forward to sharing more great poker stories with you in the year to come.

Run It Once Thread

Support the Bay Area Urban Debate League!

Timestamps

0:30 – hello and welcome
7:57 – strategy
29:36 – guest

Strategy

$1/$2 NL Hero opens to $12 with Th Td in the HJ, BN calls.

Jd Jh 5c. Both check.

6d. Hero bets $15, Villain calls.

7h. Hero bets $15, Villain raises to $65, Hero?

Brad’s previous appearance was Episode 150. Support the Bay Area Urban Debate League!

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
8:24 Strategy
18:17 Brad Willis

Reading and Listening Recommendations

Tyler Childers
John Moreland
Turnpike Troubadors
Blake Mills
Americana Music Festival
Chris Stapleton
Margot Price
Julius Goat Bubbles
David Joy
Ron Rash
George Singleton
Scott Gould
Martin Harris Obsessica
Jackpot

The great thing about this kind of review is that the hand examples come from the smaller stakes tournaments that most members play, which provides plenty of opportunity to talk about what does and doesn’t work against those kinds of opponents.

If you’re not already a member, this is a great time to sign up and get access to this plus dozens of my other videos and hundreds more from other instructors!

Oh and do check out the KL Cleeton interview if you haven’t already, it’s one of my favorites from this year!t

To learn more from Christian you can follow @ChristianSoto08 on Twitter and sign up for his I’ll Name This Strategy Later II seminar.

I’m struggling to find an interesting hand from the $215. This is the best I came up with. It may look like a straight-forward spot, but in my experience a lot of less experienced players will just call the flop (which, to be fair, is probably what I would have done too a few years ago):

PokerStars – 800/1600 Ante 200 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 24.59 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 15.56, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 45)
Hero (BB): 76.47 BB
UTG: 42.8 BB (VPIP: 21.13, PFR: 14.25, 3Bet Preflop: 6.29, Hands: 427)
UTG+1: 19.79 BB (VPIP: 19.32, PFR: 15.97, 3Bet Preflop: 5.83, Hands: 266)
MP: 59.01 BB (VPIP: 29.84, PFR: 17.74, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 124)
MP+1: 90.76 BB (VPIP: 20.97, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 124)
CO: 58.3 BB (VPIP: 31.22, PFR: 20.78, 3Bet Preflop: 10.58, Hands: 238)
BTN: 31 BB (VPIP: 19.48, PFR: 13.25, 3Bet Preflop: 7.22, Hands: 578)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has Js Kc
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop : (5.5 BB, 2 players) 5h Td Jc
Hero checks, BTN bets 2 BB, Hero raises to 6.75 BB, BTN raises to 28.6 BB, Hero raises to 50.45 BB, BTN calls 0.28 BB and is all-in

Turn : (63.25 BB, 2 players) As

River : (63.25 BB, 2 players) Ac

Hero shows Js Kc (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
(Pre 25%, Flop 69%, Turn 9%)

BTN shows Ad Kd (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 75%, Flop 31%, Turn 91%)

BTN wins 63.25 BB

I also max late registered the $530 Courchevel, which is a game I really enjoy, though I’m not sure I’m a favorite in a $530 field. With the late register, though, I got in with about 120 players remaining and 35 getting paid, so that’s how I justified it. For those who don’t know, Courchevel is a five-card PLO8 game where one of the flop cards is revealed before the pre-flop betting.

I didn’t last long at all – had QQ with a Q in the door, got all in pre against someone holding AA with a nut suit of the door card and some wrap potential. There’s no equity calculator for Courchevel so I’m not really sure whether I was favored there, but I doubt it was dramatic one way or the other.

Anyway, the big news is that I won the $44 Bounty Builder, which is a daily Progressive Knock-Out event on PokerStars. In the past, during COOPs, I used to fill screen space with Zoom games, and I still do that sometimes. But early in a session, I’ve started using smaller buy-in tournaments instead. I find it helps not to have to switch back and forth between tournament and cash mentality, and in many cases these tournaments may be better value anyway, the drawback being that sometimes it sucks when your session is extended by a few hours for a tournament you didn’t really want to play anyway. But it’s all good when you win it!

Even better, I recorded the last few hours live for Tournament Poker Edge. I started recording because I was in a bunch of events that were tough to cover in a replayer: some PKOs, the $55 Razz, and eventually the $530 Courchevel. So I thought it would be fun to record live. Then I just kept recording as I made the final table and eventually won the tournament!

I’m not going to post any hands from that just yet because you’ll have a chance to see lots of the important action on TPE soon enough.

PokerStars – 175/350 Ante 45 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BB): 183.45 BB
UTG: 165.5 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
UTG+1: 129.36 BB (VPIP: 25.42, PFR: 19.64, 3Bet Preflop: 10.71, Hands: 60)
MP: 145.31 BB (VPIP: 18.34, PFR: 14.11, 3Bet Preflop: 8.91, Hands: 574)
MP+1: 158.17 BB (VPIP: 15.91, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 44)
MP+2: 142.54 BB (VPIP: 5.26, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
CO: 115.69 BB (VPIP: 17.36, PFR: 10.95, 3Bet Preflop: 6.61, Hands: 481)
BTN: 131.73 BB (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 15.91, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 44)
SB: 70.86 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.66 BB) Hero has Kh Kc
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12.35 BB, CO calls 9.35 BB

Flop : (26.35 BB, 2 players) Jd Qh 8d
Hero bets 13.17 BB, CO calls 13.17 BB

Turn : (52.7 BB, 2 players) Tc
Hero bets 26.35 BB, CO calls 26.35 BB

River : (105.39 BB, 2 players) Ks
Hero bets 131.45 BB and is all-in, CO calls 63.69 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Kh Kc (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 67%, Flop 55%, Turn 77%)

CO shows Ad 3d (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 33%, Flop 45%, Turn 23%)

CO wins 232.77 BB

Villain was a world-class player, and I hated this spot from the flop.

My plan after the turn was actually to barrel off as a bluff, as I think I have way more AK in my range than Villain, and although KK could be good, it often won’t be and will be tough to showdown when it is.

Then I had to change course again on the river. In the moment I decided that I didn’t want to check-fold for a good deal less than a pot-sized bet, so I might as well shove for thin value. I remember thinking “just about the only Ace he can have is Ax of diamonds”. But in retrospect there are a good number of those, and Villain has some 9x as well which means he probably doesn’t need to call with hands I beat. So yeah, in retrospect I think I should have check-folded.

As for the $109, I ultimately busted in 54th. Here’s a Day 2 hand I’m pretty happy about:

PokerStars – 50000/100000 Ante 12500 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 33.51 BB (VPIP: 19.06, PFR: 12.85, 3Bet Preflop: 3.79, Hands: 322)
MP: 20.39 BB (VPIP: 9.18, PFR: 7.37, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 98)
CO: 30.9 BB (VPIP: 29.58, PFR: 26.47, 3Bet Preflop: 15.00, Hands: 72)
BTN: 23.72 BB (VPIP: 23.26, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 8.24, Hands: 219)
SB: 36.51 BB (VPIP: 16.39, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 61)
Hero (BB): 14.88 BB
UTG: 14.22 BB (VPIP: 28.83, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 2.17, Hands: 112)

7 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.37 BB) Hero has 7d 4s
UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, MP calls 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop : (9.37 BB, 4 players) Tc 9h 6c
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks

Turn : (9.37 BB, 4 players) Td
Hero bets 2.81 BB, fold, fold, fold

Hero wins 9.37 BB

Pretty nice to increase stack by about 2/3 with no hand and very little risk!

I also ended up running quite deep in the Big $109 again (I came 3rd last week) but ultimately busted in 18th.

I got off to a good start in it but then lost AK to AK.

In the $215 PKO, I got quite ambitious in an early pot. I’m still not sure what to think of it – it’s so hard to decide how to value accumulation vs survival in these events. It doesn’t look great, but I think looking at each decision in a vacuum none seems bad to me.

Initially, I’ve got a pretty good hand and there’s a ton of money in the pot that I’d love to win immediately. I don’t think Villain’s 4-bet is that likely to be light, but it’s not impossible. Plus with all the dead money and the bounty on Villain, getting in AJ vs KK isn’t the end of the world anyway. Losing your chips early in a WCOOP sucks, but running up a big stack in a PKO has a lot more value than in a regular tournament because it enables you to chase bounties.

PokerStars – 150/300 Ante 40 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 139.08 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
MP+1: 115.54 BB (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 12.63, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 96)
MP+2: 185.11 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
CO: 151.38 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
Hero (BTN): 164.16 BB
SB: 137.6 BB (VPIP: 21.01, PFR: 14.03, 3Bet Preflop: 6.37, Hands: 562)
BB: 190.93 BB (VPIP: 21.59, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 88)
UTG: 158.31 BB (VPIP: 26.11, PFR: 15.84, 3Bet Preflop: 15.46, Hands: 204)
UTG+1: 166.27 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has Jd Ac
UTG raises to 2.5 BB, UTG+1 calls 2.5 BB, MP calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 12.59 BB, fold, fold, UTG raises to 34 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 164.03 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 124.18 BB and is all-in

Flop : (326.56 BB, 2 players) 2s 6h 4s

Turn : (326.56 BB, 2 players) Qd

River : (326.56 BB, 2 players) 6c

UTG shows Ks Kc (Two Pair, Kings and Sixes)
(Pre 71%, Flop 87%, Turn 93%)

Hero shows Jd Ac (One Pair, Sixes)
(Pre 29%, Flop 13%, Turn 7%)

UTG wins 326.56 BB

The Sunday Million was frustrating. I kept getting into bad spots with big pairs, where it felt like I didn’t have any great options. This was the worst: https://www.boomplayer.com/25291484_011D353AB9

Frankly, I’m surprised the SB was so light here (though he was Brazilian). Given that I’m essentially 3-betting into a dry sidepot, there’s just not that reason for me to be light, and I don’t think he has that much incentive to randomly 4-bet me. And then the 5-bet from UTG – obviously it’s hard to like the fold once i know the results, but in general my rule is to trust my gut when it tells me to hero fold, because that’s not usually what it tells me to do.

It probably didn’t help that I’d already been in a few spots where I at least suspected that I’d been coolered, including this one where I ran KK into AA: https://www.boomplayer.com/25289125_4ADA91F5DB.

All of that said, I did get two double-ups in spots where that required at least a little above the rim play: https://www.boomplayer.com/25287412_36769CB6FC and https://www.boomplayer.com/25291645_CBB5AA13F0.

In happier news, I made Day 2 of the $109 WCOOP-Low!

Plus, Nate makes a return to the show! And a strategy discussion about flopping a straight on a monotone board!

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello and Welcome
3:50 – Strategy
16:31 – Jose Pachon
24:49 – Nate’s back!

Strategy

UTG + 1, MP, CO, button, and SB limp. Hero checks 5h 4d in the BB.

The flop comes 367ddd. SB checks, Hero bets $20, UTG + 1, CO, and SB all call.

The turn comes the 7s. SB bets $25. Hero raises to $60, UTG + 1 raises to $250. Action gets folded back around to SB who calls instantly. Hero?

PokerStars – 100/200 Ante 25 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 223.49 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 15)
BTN: 256.49 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
SB: 250.62 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
Hero (BB): 251.25 BB
UTG: 247.62 BB (VPIP: 14.15, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 205)

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.12 BB) Hero has 4c 4h
UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop : (8.62 BB, 3 players) Kc 4d 5d
Hero checks, UTG bets 4.14 BB, BTN calls 4.14 BB, Hero raises to 25.18 BB, fold, BTN calls 21.04 BB

Turn : (63.13 BB, 2 players) Kd
Hero bets 18.94 BB, BTN raises to 57 BB, Hero calls 38.06 BB

River : (177.13 BB, 2 players) Qs
Hero checks, BTN bets 171.68 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 166.44 BB and is all-in

BTN shows 5s 5h (Full House, Fives full of Kings)
(Pre 81%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)

Hero shows 4c 4h (Full House, Fours full of Kings)
(Pre 19%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)

BTN wins 510.01 BB

Honestly, I’m not at all sure this was a good river call. I do think it’s just a bluff-catcher, and although the 4s are somewhat relevant blockers, this is probably a spot where most people underbluff enough and my remaining chips valuable enough for me to fold.

It all worked out in the end though, because I took a few hours off (I hadn’t registered anything else yet) and then put in an afternoon session instead, which culminated in my taking 3rd out of nearly 1000 runners in the Big $109. That will almost certainly become a video on Tournament Poker Edge so I don’t want to give away too much, but here are two fun hands from the last two tables:

PokerStars – 2500/5000 Ante 625 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 17.34 BB (VPIP: 21.60, PFR: 15.87, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 705)
BB: 69.56 BB (VPIP: 26.88, PFR: 20.24, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 93)
UTG: 49.33 BB (VPIP: 45.45, PFR: 36.36, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 11)
UTG+1: 23.91 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 13)
Hero (MP): 18.75 BB
MP+1: 33.19 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, Hands: 56)
MP+2: 8.21 BB (VPIP: 22.35, PFR: 14.32, 3Bet Preflop: 8.12, Hands: 427)
CO: 76.27 BB (VPIP: 15.45, PFR: 9.62, 3Bet Preflop: 5.13, Hands: 110)
BTN: 31 BB (VPIP: 21.48, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 12.28, Hands: 257)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Qs Kh
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (6.18 BB, 2 players) 7s 2h 5s
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (6.18 BB, 2 players) 2c
BB checks, Hero checks

River : (6.18 BB, 2 players) 6h
BB bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

BB shows 4s Ks (One Pair, Twos)
(Pre 29%, Flop 46%, Turn 32%)

Hero shows Qs Kh (One Pair, Twos)
(Pre 71%, Flop 54%, Turn 68%)

Hero wins 14.18 BB

Villain was active in the chat box, which made it even more fun.

This was with 11 players remaining. Villain timed down to 0 before folding. Was quite the sweat:

PokerStars – 6000/12000 Ante 1500 NL – Holdem – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 14.71 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 33)
UTG: 36.57 BB (VPIP: 20.49, PFR: 15.05, 3Bet Preflop: 8.39, Hands: 701)
CO: 65.94 BB (VPIP: 18.41, PFR: 15.04, 3Bet Preflop: 9.80, Hands: 357)
BTN: 50.35 BB (VPIP: 22.90, PFR: 16.75, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 434)
Hero (SB): 34.54 BB

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.12 BB) Hero has 8c Kc
fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.1 BB, Hero raises to 6.48 BB, fold, BTN calls 4.38 BB

Flop : (14.59 BB, 2 players) 7s Ts 5d
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn : (14.59 BB, 2 players) 6c
Hero checks, BTN bets 7 BB, Hero raises to 27.94 BB and is all-in, fold

Hero wins 28.59 BB

PS Nothing to write home about in the $1050 PKO. Collected one bounty.

Wednesday did not get off to a great start in the $500. Pretty early on, I lost this gem:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 142.61 BB (VPIP: 24.49, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 49)
MP+2: 130.55 BB (VPIP: 27.19, PFR: 15.18, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 114)
CO: 126.32 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 19.73, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 154)
BTN: 130.29 BB (VPIP: 19.65, PFR: 13.86, 3Bet Preflop: 4.79, Hands: 343)
SB: 97.6 BB (VPIP: 22.38, PFR: 16.79, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 143)
BB: 116.88 BB (VPIP: 17.28, PFR: 12.45, 3Bet Preflop: 6.87, Hands: 273)
UTG: 127.12 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 16.19, 3Bet Preflop: 8.20, Hands: 184)
UTG+1: 172.18 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (MP): 77.76 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9c Tc
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (8.46 BB, 3 players) 8c Qs Jh
BB checks, Hero checks, MP+2 bets 4.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 4.5 BB

Turn : (17.46 BB, 2 players) 5c
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 8.73 BB, Hero raises to 22.22 BB, MP+2 calls 13.49 BB

River : (61.9 BB, 2 players) 2c
Hero bets 48.63 BB and is all-in, MP+2 calls 48.63 BB

Hero shows 9c Tc (Flush, Ten High)
(Pre 34%, Flop 92%, Turn 84%)

MP+2 shows Kc Jc (Flush, King High)
(Pre 66%, Flop 8%, Turn 16%)

MP+2 wins 159.17 BB

The Zoom 6-Max was going better, for a while. It’s a fun format, over as quickly as a turbo but the Zoom structure means you get more hands per level than you would in a turbo (though it still isn’t as deep as a normal WCOOP). I actually gave some thought to folding this river, as I really couldn’t figure out what he would 3-bet-call from the SB that I could beat. Finally I decided it could be a strangely played AK, and thankfully it was!

PokerStars – 400/800 Ante 100 NL FAST (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 58.23 BB (VPIP: 25.76, PFR: 16.92, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 68)
SB: 70.2 BB (VPIP: 25.33, PFR: 18.31, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 75)
Hero (BB): 105.34 BB
UTG: 47.54 BB (VPIP: 19.46, PFR: 17.19, 3Bet Preflop: 10.11, Hands: 2,416)
MP: 64.6 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 133)
CO: 77.86 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has Jc Jd
fold, fold, CO raises to 2.2 BB, BTN calls 2.2 BB, SB raises to 7 BB, Hero raises to 20.83 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 13.83 BB

Flop : (46.81 BB, 2 players) Td 2s 4c
SB checks, Hero bets 11.11 BB, SB calls 11.11 BB

Turn : (69.03 BB, 2 players) Tc
SB checks, Hero checks

River : (69.03 BB, 2 players) 8h
SB bets 38.13 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 38.13 BB

SB shows Kh Ac (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 43%, Flop 26%, Turn 14%)

Hero shows Jc Jd (Two Pair, Jacks and Tens)
(Pre 57%, Flop 74%, Turn 86%)

Hero wins 145.29 BB

Karma caught up to me though, as I eventually got in JJ vs AK pre-flop and lost.

Here’s an interesting one from the $215. I don’t love check-raising bottom two when this deep on a board like this one, because although you benefit a bit from protection you aren’t generally going to end up with a hand that you want to play for four bets. Case in point: by the time we see the river, I’m at the bottom of my range and ready to turn my hand into a bluff, mostly to get Villain off of a Q though perhaps also AA or AJ.

PokerStars – 150/300 Ante 40 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 168.05 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 32)
MP+1: 148.96 BB (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 27)
MP+2: 171.63 BB (VPIP: 21.18, PFR: 13.58, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 86)
CO: 175.34 BB (VPIP: 21.15, PFR: 14.49, 3Bet Preflop: 4.59, Hands: 491)
BTN: 157.53 BB (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 2.78, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
SB: 140.37 BB (VPIP: 45.85, PFR: 34.51, 3Bet Preflop: 11.24, Hands: 233)
Hero (BB): 114.67 BB
UTG: 201.03 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 14)
UTG+1: 170.1 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has 8s Jh
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop : (6.7 BB, 2 players) Jd Kd 8h
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

Turn : (12.7 BB, 2 players) Kh
Hero checks, MP+2 checks

River : (12.7 BB, 2 players) Qd
Hero bets 8.38 BB, fold

Hero wins 12.7 BB

This was a gross one from the $530:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 107.42 BB (VPIP: 19.17, PFR: 14.39, 3Bet Preflop: 7.03, Hands: 433)
MP: 92.68 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
MP+1: 171.23 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 48)
MP+2: 86.44 BB (VPIP: 18.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 50)
Hero (CO): 193.65 BB
BTN: 119.7 BB (VPIP: 21.59, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 7.45, Hands: 227)
SB: 119.16 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BB: 121.14 BB (VPIP: 26.85, PFR: 20.56, 3Bet Preflop: 6.10, Hands: 217)
UTG: 163.31 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Jh Js
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2.19 BB, Hero raises to 6.45 BB, BTN raises to 15 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 8.55 BB

Flop : (34.81 BB, 2 players) 4s 9d 8d
Hero checks, BTN bets 10.7 BB, Hero calls 10.7 BB

Turn : (56.21 BB, 2 players) Kd
Hero checks, BTN checks

River : (56.21 BB, 2 players) Jc
Hero bets 167.83 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 93.88 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Jh Js (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 68%, Flop 53%, Turn 0%)

BTN shows Td Ad (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 32%, Flop 47%, Turn 100%)

BTN wins 243.97 BB

I can’t fault Villain’s play, it’s just a great spot for him to pressure me pre-flop. It’s possible I’m just supposed to raise again pre-flop; I certainly considered it, but the money behind seemed awkward. I haven’t run in CREV yet but I feel good about the river shove. I doubt Villain will have enough flushes and KK to be able to fold a lot of his AK/AA.

And in a throwback to one of my earliest poker strategy articles, here I am bluffing a calling station:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 108.05 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 14.52, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 429)
SB: 116.52 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BB: 175.63 BB (VPIP: 22.73, PFR: 6.82, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 44)
UTG: 89.82 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 46)
Hero (UTG+1): 176.1 BB
MP: 115.08 BB (VPIP: 21.97, PFR: 13.89, 3Bet Preflop: 7.61, Hands: 223)
MP+1: 122.04 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP+2: 121.76 BB (VPIP: 27.36, PFR: 20.95, 3Bet Preflop: 6.17, Hands: 213)
CO: 149.74 BB (VPIP: 29.55, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9c Tc
fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 1.78 BB, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (7.96 BB, 3 players) 8s 2s Jd
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 5.26 BB, SB calls 5.26 BB, fold

Turn : (18.48 BB, 2 players) 6s
SB checks, Hero bets 9.24 BB, SB calls 9.24 BB

River : (36.96 BB, 2 players) 4s
SB checks, Hero bets 18.48 BB, fold

Hero wins 36.96 BB

The day off (it wasn’t a proper day off, as I did do some studying, but no playing) was nice. Emily and I had brunch at a cafe in the nearby town of Val-David. When we ordered, the server was friendly and patient with my limited French. I commented to Emily that she seemed to understand that my French was poor and be helping me along with simple words and phrasing, which I prefer to the approach more common in Montreal where people just start speaking English. It seems like out in the mountains many people still have learned English but are far less comfortable with it.

Anyway, just to prove me wrong, within minutes of my saying that the server returned to the table and said something long and complicated very quickly. I told her, “Sorry, my French is not great”, by which I meant only that I needed her to rephrase and speak more slowly, but she responded with, “Ah, OK, I am not so good in English but I will try.” And then she apologized that she’d forgotten to put our order in and it would still be a little while. Of course we were understanding, but probably she was nervous which was why she’d started speaking quickly.

Elsewhere, people were somewhat less friendly about it. I went with Emily to help her get a season pass for the regional park, and was prepared to conduct the entire transaction in broken French, translating for Emily when necessary. The woman switched to English when she saw me doing that, but she was kind of grudging about it, and made a comment at some point that, “It’s very hard for me, in English.” Which, again, I didn’t have any expectation that she speak English, only that she be patient with my French.

The grocery store is where I’m at my most comfortable, partly because not much speaking is required but also because I’ve got my routine down. Yes, I need a sac plastique. No, I don’t have a carte Métro. I’m sure it’s obvious that I’m not a fluent speaker, but it’s a perfectly fluid transaction. So after doing all of that in French, the woman looks at me over the rim of her glasses and says, “Thank you” in English like she’s caught me in some dirty secret.

There’s a nice bike path that runs through town called “Le P’tit Train Du Nord”, built on what used to be a railway. It’s very well maintained and quite popular in the summer. We got a few smiles while out on the trail but it was surprising how many people would pointedly avoid eye contact or even just stare without smiling when you gave them a little wave or head nod. So maybe it wasn’t the English, maybe the Quebecois just aren’t a friendly people (that would certainly accord with stereotypes I’ve encountered in the States).

Anyway, poker…

PokerStars has gotten a lot of criticism since Amaya took over (including from Talal Shakerchi). I think much of it is well-deserved and they are mostly full of shit when they try to sell changes that are obviously designed to increase rake as being “good for the game”. That said, their shift towards Progressive Knock-Out Tournaments does seem to be good for the game (if also good for Stars’ bottom line). These events routinely get way bigger fields than comparable Freezeouts at the same buy-in level. And at least for now, people play them badly.

I found myself in a rough spot early on, after cold four-betting Kings and getting a nightmare flop:

PokerStars – 300/600 Ante 75 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 88.29 BB (VPIP: 25.32, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 237)
MP: 64.14 BB (VPIP: 23.91, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 92)
MP+1: 75.05 BB (VPIP: 20.87, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 207)
MP+2: 74.09 BB (VPIP: 20.65, PFR: 15.22, 3Bet Preflop: 6.82, Hands: 92)
CO: 86.02 BB (VPIP: 21.59, PFR: 14.77, 3Bet Preflop: 9.30, Hands: 88)
BTN: 85.29 BB (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 4.88, Hands: 92)
SB: 90.07 BB (VPIP: 20.52, PFR: 14.66, 3Bet Preflop: 7.43, Hands: 888)
Hero (BB): 78.3 BB
UTG: 109.01 BB (VPIP: 16.16, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 99)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Kh Kd
fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 5.94 BB, fold, Hero raises to 18.52 BB, fold, BTN calls 12.57 BB

Flop : (40.66 BB, 2 players) Jc Qh 5s
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn : (40.66 BB, 2 players) Qd
Hero bets 12.2 BB, BTN calls 12.2 BB

River : (65.06 BB, 2 players) 8d
Hero checks, BTN bets 54.45 BB and is all-in, fold

BTN wins 65.06 BB

I may have overreacted to seeing a Q and a J on the flop, because CREV still thinks I should get the money in (a result that is, admittedly, sensitive to the assumption that Villain has a lot of AK in his range). I do, after all, have only a pot and a half in my stack upon seeing the flop. CREV also thinks flop is a mix but mostly a bet. Again, there’s a lot of equity to be denied to AK. It’s important to keep in mind that even with my blockers, there are 8 ways to have AK and only 6 ways for Villain to flop a set (I’m comfortable assuming he never has 55).

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & welcome
4:34 – Satellite strategy
19:18 – Nipun Java

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
8:29 – strat
46:20 – etay

Strategy

NLHE tournament, 2000/4000 with a 400 ante. I had the big stack at the table, at about 280k or so. The villain in this hand was second in chips with 235k. There were roughly 36 players left, with 32 getting paid.

Action folds to him in the hijack, he makes it 11,500, I have JJ, and make it 30k. All fold back to him, he calls quickly.

Pot is ~69k . He checks blind (he did this a lot). Flop comes 467r. I bet 45K, Villain calls.

Pot ~159k. He checks blind again (less common for him to do this on the turn). Turn is a 2. I check behind.

~159k. River is a 3. He thinks for a couple seconds and shoves for 161k.

The trickiest problem of all is that you can only collect bounties if you have more chips than your opponents, which means that there must be some disjuncture in chip value. To understand this, consider that everyone else has 7,500 chips and you have 7,499. How much would you pay to be able to add a single chip to your stack? I don’t know to put an exact number on that, but considering that that chip would give you a shot at collecting $500 bounties, it must be a good deal more than $0.1133. Losing a single chip, however, would cost you less than that, because that chip would be nowhere near your last.

Let’s consider another hypothetical. At 50/100, you are in the big blind. You and the player on your right both have exactly the 7,500 starting stack. The action folds to the small blind, who moves all in without looking at his cards. Assuming that you are of exactly average skill in this tournament, what should your calling range be?

Please give it a look and let me know what you think!

Strategy

Hand 1

I’m in MP with 9c9d, a stack of $5.56 and raise to 15c, it folds around to the SB with a stack of $5.96 who 3bet to 35c. It folds back to me and I make an easy call.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 7s, 5s, 6h ] Pot: 0.75c.
Villain bets [ $0.36 USD ]
hero calls [ $0.36 USD ]

** Dealing Turn ** [ 2d ] Pot: $1.47
Villain bets [ $0.70 USD ]
hero calls [ $0.70 USD ]

** Dealing River ** [ Jh ] Pot: $2.87
Villain bets [ $1 USD ]

Hand 2

I had 77 utg and limped.  It limped around all the way to the button who just flatted.

Five players to the flop of k 7 4 rainbow.  I checked checked all the way to button who bet 12. I just called 12.  The cutoff also called.

The turn brings a 6 diamonds.  2 diamonds on the board.

I check.  Check on cutoff and the button bets 35.  I wait 30 seconds and then reraise to 100.

Cutoff hymns and haws and I put him in 75d and he calls after 1 minute or more.  The button calls instantly.

River brings j diamonds.  I check quickly and the c/o quickly moves all in for 210.

The button calls immediately for less – like 60.

Hand 3

1/2 game in Arizona. Hero has $350 effective, and is the big stack at the table. Both usual suspects limp, and hero checks his option from the BB with Ad 6s.

The flop comes all diamonds. T72. I bet $10, and one of the more laggy players three bets me to $25. The other one folds. I call.

Turn is the Jh. I check. Villain leads for $30. I call.

River comes JD, pairing the board but also giving me the nut flush. I lead for $25, Opponent clicks back pretty quickly, making it $50.

Timestamps

0:25 Hello and Welcome
16:00 Strategy

Timestamps

0:30 Hello and welcome
52:44 Strategy

Links

Gareth Chantler on Twitter
Gareth’s Stories From Syria
Hassan Hassan on Twitter
Iyad El-Baghdadi on Twitter
Samar Yazbek’s A Woman In the Crossfire
Mustafa Khalifa’s The Shell

Strategy

PokerStars – 500/1000 (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (UTG): 8.06 BB
MP: 3.26 BB (VPIP: 27.23, PFR: 15.57, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 213)
CO: 9.48 BB (VPIP: 29.03, PFR: 21.49, 3Bet Preflop: 13.73, Hands: 126)
BTN: 14.55 BB (VPIP: 24.02, PFR: 15.23, 3Bet Preflop: 11.22, Hands: 490)
SB: 24.19 BB (VPIP: 41.38, PFR: 31.25, 3Bet Preflop: 18.87, Hands: 146)
BB: 43.16 BB (VPIP: 34.92, PFR: 24.59, 3Bet Preflop: 26.92, Hands: 64)

SB posts SB 0.25 BB, BB posts BB 0.5 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 0.75 BB) Hero has Kh Td
Hero raises to 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB, Hero calls 0.5 BB

Flop : (4.5 BB, 3 players) Th 3s 6c
SB bets 0.5 BB, BB raises to 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB, SB calls 0.5 BB

Turn : (7.5 BB, 3 players) Ts
SB checks, BB bets 1 BB, Hero ?

Plus, in honor of Pittsburgh, our strategy segment features Andrew donking around in a 5/5/10 PLO game at the Rivers Casino.

Links

Episode 140 with Chad Power
Daniel’s Poker Night in America episode
Daniel on Twitter

Timestamps

Strategy

5/5 PLO with a $10 Button straddle

Hero is BB with AKQTsshh. SB completes, Hero completes, UTG raises to $30, MP calls, BN calls, SB calls, Hero raises to $180, everyone but SB calls.

Flop ($750) Ad 9c 7c. I am spades and hearts so no flush draw for me. I have about $3000 behind, everyone covers me. Everyone checks.

Turn ($750) Js. Everyone checks.

River ($750) 3h. Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
8:14 – Strategy

Strategy

Hand 1

We’re on the bubble, with 20 players remaining and 18 to be paid. Blinds are 1500/3000, and I raise to 6000 UTG (7-handed) with Tc 8c. The only player at the table to have me covered 3-bets to 12K from HJ, and I call.

Flop (34K) Ks 9h 7h. I check, he bets 15K, I raise to 45K, he calls.

Turn (124K) 4h. I bet 45K, he calls.

River (214K) Qc.

Hand 2

$1/$2 NLHE, seven-handed, $300 effective stacks.

UTG+1 opens to $15. CO and BN call, Hero calls Qh 6h in the BB.

Flop ($55) Q97r. Hero checks, UTG1 bets $20, CO and BN fold, Hero calls.

Turn ($95) 6. Hero bets $35, UTG1 raises to $100, Hero shoves.

Hand 3

$2/$5 Spread Limit O/8 with a $100 Max Bet, 9-handed, $250 effective stacks.

Hero limps AA92 UTG, several calls, Button raises to $40. Folds to Hero…

In our strategy segment, we discuss bluffing at the micro-stakes.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
9:58 – Strategy
37:40 – Interview: Matt Bodnar

Recommended Reading

Mindset: The New Science of Success by Carol S. Dweck
Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance by Robert Pirsig
Getting Things Done by David Allen
The Wisdom of Insecurity by Alan Watts
Cosmos by Carl Sagan

Strategy

$0.01/$0.02 NLHE on PokerStars

MP ($2.75) opens to $0.04, Hero calls in CO with 9s 8s, Button ($6.21) raises to $0.14, MP folds, Hero calls.

Flop ($0.35) 6s Qd 3h. Check check.

Turn ($0.35) 6h. Hero bets $0.20, Villain calls.

River ($0.75) 4s. Hero checks, Villain bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.22.

Fortunately, I managed to win the first few pots of the day, first with an open shove to take the blinds, then with an UTG raise which went uncontested, then calling a shove with AT in the BB to beat A9 from the SB for a full double.

After that, I was back in action. As I mentioned, I ended Day 1 with a major regret from the then-largest pot of the tournament, but I can honestly say that from Day 2 I can think of only very small things I wish I’d done differently. A few hands I’m proud of:

Bluff on the Bubble

We’re on the bubble, with 20 players remaining and 18 to be paid. Blinds are 1500/3000, and I raise to 6000 UTG with Tc 8c. The only player at the table to have me covered 3-bets to 12K (he said later this was a misclick and he meant to make it 17K, which I believe), and I call.

Flop (34K) Ks 9h 7h. I check, he bets 15K, I raise to 45K, he calls.

Turn (124K) 4h. I bet 45K, he calls.

River (214K) Qc. I shove about 120K, he folds AK and asks me to show. I oblige.

Better Bet Sizing Through Tells

Still on the bubble. Blinds 1500/3000. The player in the BB has only about 60K to start the hand. An active recreational player with a big stack raises to 7500 from the HJ. I have him covered and raise to 20K. A very tight player in the SB looks at his cards and instantly jams ~65K. I put him on KK at worst and am ready to fold, but then the original raiser calls, so I decide to see a flop.

Edit: I have 66!

Flop (~215K) 884r. Checks through.

Turn 4. Checks through.

River 6. Bingo. Original raiser checks, and I am trying to think about how much he might call just an Ace. In my head, I settle on a small number, 40K.

As I grab chips, he says “Dammit!” and kinda bangs the table. I know that sounds so blatant that it must be an act, but in the moment it really felt like genuine frustration at the fact that he knew I was about to put him in a tough spot. This suggested to me that he would actually consider calling a larger bet, so I bet 75K. After much agonizing, he called with an Ace. The all in player had AA, so I scooped a big one there.

Bluff Catching at the Final Table

Recent podcast guest Chase Bianchi was at the final table of 10 with me (and recent podcast guest Elena Stover finished 12th).

Blinds are 2500/5000. UTG1 limps, Chase limps in MP3, the SB folds, and I check my option with the mighty 42o.

Flop (22,500) Q54r. Checks to Chase, who bets 12,500. I raise to 30K, UTG1 folds, and Chase calls. Lots of good things can happen when I raise. Although I may well have the best hand (I don’t think Chase needs much at all to stab at this), it benefits a lot from protection. It’s even possible that I can push UTG1 off of a better pocket pair and get called when I’m ahead against Chase, if he has a draw or just a random float.

Turn (82,500) 5. I bet 45K. This is actually a pretty nice card for me. Even though it reduces the combos of sets and two-pair that I could have, I still have all of them in my range, whereas Chase has only an ever-dwindling number of 54, 44, and 55, some of which I block (suits are actually relevant here, as I imagine he might limp 54s but not 54o, but I don’t remember them). I don’t know how much Qx or 4x he’s limping, and the turn makes 5x less likely for him.

He calls. I now think his range consists of 76, Qx, pocket pairs, 54, 55, and 44 (at least some of which may check the flop). My plan is to check-call river if the straight draw misses, as I don’t think he has much incentive to jam a better pair for value.

River (172,500) 2. I check, he jams 98K, I call, and he shows 97s, which quite surprising to me. I don’t recall whether he had a backdoor flush draw on the flop, but he definitely did not have a flush draw on the turn, so I guess he just thought he was going to straight up own me. Whoops!

In addition to giving me a comfortable chip lead at the final table, this call had several good effects. It eliminated one of my toughest opponents, and it sufficiently awed most of the table such that they were not inclined to mess around with me.

The Rest

We got down to five-handed with me, a satellite qualifier, a guy named Steve who knew me from Tournament Poker Edge, a likely pro from Michigan, and a guy named Carlos Chadha – more on him in a moment.

The satellite qualifier was absolutely unwilling to put his chips in without a top 5% hand, pot odds be damned. He eventually even folded his SB, leaving himself with just three ante chips. Amazingly, he kept picking up AQ and winning with it to stay alive. Eventually, he busted in 5th place.

The kid from Michigan seemed good-natured at heart, so maybe he was just a bit tilted, because on this particular evening he was acting like a salty circuity grinder. He was the second shortest stack at the table, which meant he was handcuffed by the presence of the satellite qualifier who just wouldn’t die. He was getting frustrated at the guy’s abject refusal to put money in the pot and started just openly commenting on how bad some of his folds were. I was happy to see him go out in 4th.

As I mentioned, Steve knew me from Tournament Poker Edge. Carlos, as it turned out, knew me from Poker Savvy Plus, a pre-Black Friday training site I worked for for several years. He was old school and, now, a high roller. Literally, a super high roller. This $570 was the smallest live tournament he’d ever deigned to play. But he was in the area, and he’d never won a live tournament, and he really wanted to do so.

Much as I hate to admit it, I doubt I was the best player out of the three of us. Carlos had an aura of confidence and deep thought about him, and I never saw him miss a trick. Actually, that’s not quite true. He once called down with an unimproved K2 vs Steve, only to find that Steve was indeed bluffing… with a better King! But I mean, if the biggest “mistake” you’re making is correctly identifying a bluff and calling down with King-high….

A Hero Check

We passed chips back and forth for over three hours. Really the only interesting pot I was involved in began with me raising the button (sorry, I don’t recall the stakes – couldn’t keep notes well while playing short-handed) with Kd Qd. Carlos called in the SB, and Steve called in the BB.

Flop As Td 6c. Checks around.

Turn Jd. Bingo. Carlos checks, Steve bets 75K, I raise to 175K with about 325K behind, Carlos folds, and Steve calls.

River Tc. Certainly not what I wanted to see. I watched Steve like a hawk as the river card came down, and to his credit, he didn’t give anything away as it fell, nor as he checked. Not a lot of people can so casually react to such a significant card with so much on the line, and it was only for that reason that I even considered betting the river. I just couldn’t figure what he could call with, as I think he would have re-raised pre-flop with AK/AQ, A6 and J6 got counterfeited, and from the way he called the turn I didn’t really think he had a bare Ace. I checked and allowed my pride in finding that check to counteract my disappointment in seeing Steve roll AT for a full house.

The End

I eventually busted Steve when he jammed ATs on the button and I woke up with QQ in the SB. That left me heads up with Carlos with nearly even stacks, something like his 1.1M to my 1M. That was only 20 big blinds, so there wasn’t much room to play.

I was hoping I might at least be the more experienced heads up player, but apparently Carlos was an online heads up pro for a while. He certainly seemed to know what he was going on a 20BB stack, which to be honest that part of my game is not particularly tight. I haven’t put much thought into a button limping range, for instance.

It was over quickly, though. Just a few hands in, he limped the button for 50K, and I, now with an 18BB stack, raised to 175K with A7s. He jammed, I called, and he showed me TT. Although I turned a flush draw, I didn’t get there on the river, and Carlos won his first-ever live poker tournament!

Although A7s is a strong hand with just a single opponent and 18BBs, against a weaker player, I might not force the action pre-flop. Against Carlos, though, I didn’t feel like there was any room to pass on thin edges, so I went for the raise-call. Basically it was just a cooler, which in all likelihood was how the match was going to end one way or the other.

We finished play around 12:30, nearly 12 hours after we started, but there’s no rest for the weary. The $1500 Main Event starts today!

In our strategy segment, we discuss why it matters how the money goes in, and what to do with a straight facing a big shove when the river pairs the board.

We encourage you to buy Painless Poker and Tommy’s other books directly from him, in order to get your free autograph and e-books. If you do buy from Amazon, though, please use our affiliate link.

Tommy previously appeared on Episode 2, Episode 29, and Episode 192.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome & Strategy
35:31 Interview: Tommy Angelo

Strategy

Playing $0.25/$0.50 NLHE online. Villain has starting stack of $53.40, I have $43.69

Villain opens on the button to $1.10 (his standard open). I call in the BB with 8s8d

Pot is $2.45. Flop – 7d 6h 9c

I checked, he bet $2.50. I called.

Turn was 10h. I check he checks.

River was 6d. I bet $3.69 into $7.45 and then he shoves for $49.80 and has me covered.

Johanson has previously been our guest on Episode 79 and Episode 110. Before the match, we discussed DeepStack with Michael Bowling on Episode 208.

Follow @DeepStackAI on Twitter for details of their upcoming Twitch matches as well as links to replays of past matches and other news.

Strategy

PokerStars – $150/$300 NL (2 max) – Holdem – 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (SB): 69.67 BB
Hero (BB): 63.67 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6d 6c
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qs Qd
Hero raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 6 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

Flop : (12 BB, 2 players) 7s Th 5c
Hero bets 7 BB, Hero calls 7 BB

Turn : (26 BB, 2 players) 6s
Hero bets 14.17 BB, Hero raises to 50.67 BB, Hero calls 36.5 BB and is all-in

River : (127.33 BB, 2 players) 9h

Hero shows 6d 6c (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 19%, Flop 13%, Turn 95%)

Hero shows Qs Qd (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 81%, Flop 87%, Turn 5%)

Hero wins 127.33 BB

Details of the 85o shove, as well as further thoughts on it and the match in general, are here.

We also discuss our recent match against DeepStack. If you missed it, you can hear our (most recent) interview with Michael Bowling of the Computer Poker Research Group and check out a replay of the games we played on Twitch.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
15:57 – patrick

I suspect, though, that even if we were to give the Hero a slightly stronger holding, such as QQ, many people would still be reluctant to shove. Why is this?

I believe the overriding cause to be classic loss aversion: at some level; most human brains are more concerned about not-losing than they are about winning. Even when we can expect to win at a favorable, very profitable frequency, our guts may very well tell us to be careful.

Does that sound like you? Did you find the article helpful? Please let me know in the comments!

And don’t miss Carlos Welch’s great piece on How to Develop and Use Reads!

.Next week, Terrence Chan and Adam Schwartz of the 2+2 Pokercast will play DeepStack. I wanted to share some of my thoughts from the match with both them and the Thinking Poker community anyway, so I figure I might as well just collect my thoughts here.

1. Bet Sizes. I haven’t discussed this with the Computer Poker Research Group, but it seems like there are only a few bet sizes that DeepStack considers for its own actions (though, as I understand it, its ability to respond to diverse bet sizes is one of its chief advances over previous NLHE AIs). For instance, into a pot of 1600, it might bet 800, 1600, or 3200, but it would never choose 2291 as a bet size unless that were its exact stack size.

   This strikes me as the best opportunity to exploit DeepStack, though Terrence and Adam are probably more capable than I of determining how exactly to take advantage of that (it wasn’t something I actively tried to do during my match). Considering the range of bet sizes DeepStack does use, I suspect that generally it doesn’t lose much by not considering “weirder” amounts. However, this might be somewhat more problematic with shallow stacks, where never betting less than half pot (if that is even a constraint) might prevent it from having a bet-folding range at all.

2. Threat of a Check-Raise. These were the spots where I felt I had the most difficulty setting aside my “feel” based on how human opponents tend to play and constructing minimally exploitable ranges. There are a lot of spots where (non-elite) human opponents don’t check-raise often. This is for a variety of reasons: lack of “obvious” bluffing candidates, difficulty of checking a strong hand multiple times, etc. As a result, I think I ended up with betting ranges that were sometimes too depolarized (getting raised off of strong draws or very-possibly-best made hands sucks) or simply too wide.

   Example: There was one hand where I turned 84 into a bluff on AJ2Q4, and it check-raised me with 85o!

3. Board Coverage. Nate and I talked a bit about this on stream. This is something you see when working with solvers as well, and is probably related to (2). There are subtle things that DeepStack seems to do when making what might seem like arbitrary choices about candidates for floating or bluffing on early streets. The end result is a less predictable range on future streets.

   For instance, I know that I want to have some Kx in my three-betting range when deep, and I typically choose some combination of KTs – KAs for this purpose. DeepStack almost certainly does a better job of getting the exact frequency right, but even we miraculously had the same amount of Kx in our three-betting ranges, it probably builds its range by three-betting all combinations of Kxs at relatively low frequencies. This means it ends up connecting with boards like Q74 in three-bet pots in ways that I don’t. Likewise its candidates for peeling or bluff-raising flop can seem surprising when the truth is that the choice is arbitrary in a vacuum but there is incentive to reach turns and rivers with a wider variety of holdings than most humans do. Consequently, it’s harder (though still not impossible) to recognize a particular run out as good or bad for DeepStack based on its play on earlier streets.

4. Surprising Play. DeepStack did more than a few things that surprised us. For the most part, we were willing to believe that it “knew” better and could, after the fact, wrap our heads around why it may have done what it did. But it made one play against me that I have a really hard time believing could possibly be correct.

   At 200/400, I opened to 1200 with QTo, and DeepStack jammed 18,250 effective with 85o. When we’re talking about move all in pre-flop, board coverage isn’t going to be a consideration, and although shoving ranges won’t be strictly linear because there will exist hands where calling > shoving > folding, it’s hard to imagine how folding could ever be correct if shoving 85o is +EV here.

   It’s worth adding here that one feature of an equilibrium strategy is that it will not include “advertising” or “balancing” plays, even at a low-frequency, that have a negative expected value. Now admittedly, DeepStack does not claim to have an equilibrium strategy, but the point is that shoving, even at a low frequency, can’t be justified simply by saying it’s a balancing play. It would have to have EV not less than 0 for shoving to be correct at any non-zero frequency.

Can it? Join us Wednesday at 5PM Eastern on Twitch to find out as Nate and Andrew battle in real time against DeepStack.

Links

Tournament Poker Edge

DeepStackAI Article in Science

Timestamps

Strategy

From a €500 deep stack tournament in Dublin. Blinds are 150/300/25 and effective stacks are 100-110k.

UTG limps, folds to MP who makes it 700, folds to Hero on the button who 3-bets to 2100 with AQo. UTG 4-bets to 7000. MP folds, Hero calls.

Pot: 15,450
Flop: 9c 7s 2h

UTG bets 6500. Hero calls.

Pot: 28,450
Turn: Qd

UTG bets 11,200. Hero calls.

Pot: 50,850
River: 5s

UTG bets 35,000. Hero?

Links

Tournament Poker Edge

NYC Live Event with Just Hands Poker

DeepStackAI Article in Science

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
13:08 – strat
45:14 – nikolai

Strategy

Hand 1

60/120 Limit Hold ‘Em

Button raises, Hero 3-bets ATo in SB, BN 4-bets, Hero calls.

Flop (4.5 BBs) T42r. Check, bet, call.

Turn (5.5 BBs) A. Check, bet, raise, call.

River (7.5 BBs) T. Bet, fold.

Hand 2

$1/$3 NLHE, $390 effective stacks.

Utg+1 calls, MP raises to 13, Hero raise to 35 with QQ on btn, folds back to MP who calls. 

Flop ($77) Qh 9h 6c. Check, Hero bets $40, call.

Turn ($157) Jh. Check, Hero bets $80, Villain raises to $200, Hero calls

River ($557) Qh 9h 6c Jh 2h. Villain jams $150, Hero folds.

Links

Tournament Poker Edge

NYC Live Event with Just Hands Poker

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
6:50 – Strategy: Top-Top in a Straddled Pot
40:38 – Interview: Ronnie Bardah

Strategy

$2/$5 NLHE, $500 effective stacks.

UTG straddles for $15, UTG2 raises to $45, Hero calls Ad Kc on the button, both blinds call, and the straddle folds.

Flop ($179) As 4c 4s. Villain bets $80, Hero calls, blinds fold.

Turn ($339) 8c. Villain bets $150, Hero calls.

River ($639) 8s. Villain shoves $130, Hero calls.

“You are UTG+1 in a nine-handed $5/$10 game in which all players have $2,000 stacks. The UTG player opens to $40. Consider your action with each of the following hands: AA, AKo, AQs, KQo, JTs, 65s.”

Of course, I go on to help you consider your action, using the theoretical framework from the previous article. Hope you’ll find it useful!

Strategy this week comes to us from Nate’s recent play in a Foxwoods $1K!

Links

Coaching Carlos

Tournament Poker Edge

NYC Live Event with Just Hands Poker

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
11:38 – Strategy From Nate at Foxwoods
41:41 – Interview: Angela Bassa

Strategy

Hand 1

Blinds 150/300/25. Effective stacks 30K.

Hero limps QQ UTG, UTG1 raises to 1200, UTG2 calls BB raises it 3800, Hero calls, UTG1 folds, UTG2 calls.

Flop J97tt. BB bets 7K, Hero?

Hand 2

Blinds 600/1200/200. Effective stack 72K.

Villain opens HJ to 2800, Hero calls JTo on CO, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop (11K) 9h 5c 2h. Check, check, Hero bets 5300, folds back to HJ who calls.

Turn (22.5K) 8s. HJ checks, Hero?

Playing $2/$5 NL. Effective stack $600. Villain is a woman in her mid-20s, has a pro-ey vibe to her. I don’t know that we’ve played together before but I see her around Maryland Live a lot. Don’t remember ever seeing her in bigger games even when they were going at MDL. She always has full buyin+ in front of her, often on phone, chummy with dealers, etc. I haven’t been at table long, don’t know what if anything she thinks of me.

She opens to $20 in HJ, I make it $65 with AA in the CO, folds back to her and she calls without much thought (took less than 10 seconds to consider action, including time while other players folded).

Flop ($130 in pot) Qc 9d 9h. She checks, I bet $65, she calls.

Turn ($260) Kd. She checks, I bet $125, she calls.

River ($510) Ks. She checks. $345 remain in effective stacks.

Y’all prefer checking or shoving?

PS: Apologies to Villain, if she sees this. I’m doing this from memory several days after the fact, so there’s a fair chance I’m messing up some moderately important detail such as a suit and a small chance I’m messing up a really significant detail (it’s happened before).

The first half of my conversation with Matt is available here.

If you didn’t donate during the campaign, please enjoy the video and then donate whatever you feel it was worth to you. Thanks!

Edit: Courtesy of Carlos Welch, here are links to the TV footage of the hands we discuss:

Hand 1
https://youtu.be/Cbwe7cP2jQI?t=2393

Hand 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2qhk6Xuq0k

Also please note that there’s a typo in the video for Hand 2. The flop was actually 844 with two diamonds.

When you three-bet, you’re gearing up to play a big pot, so you ought to come strapped. That doesn’t have to mean Aces, but it should mean a hand with a reasonable chance of winning the pot if you go to the flop. In most cases, the stronger your hand, the higher the Expected Value (EV) of your three-bet will be.

It does not follow from this that you should therefore three-bet a strictly linear range, starting from Aces and working your way down. The complication is that many hands that will have a high EV when they three-bet will also have a high EV when they call. Your job is to decide, when you have a reasonably good hand, whether it will play better as a three-bet or a call in this particular situation.

How do you decide when to three-bet? Was this article helpful to you?

We created this video as part of a year-end fundraising campaign for the Bay Area Urban Debate League.  To unlock more videos like this one and get a shot at some great prizes, please donate to the campaign now!

Eileen is the author of The Total Poker Manual. You can follow her on Twitter @PokerForGirls and read the articles she’s written for Red Chip Poker.

In our strategy segment, our correspondent asks about how to play a big draw facing some weird bets.

Nate’s new project is Gonfalon Bubble. Andrew would appreciate, and is offering prizes for, donations to the Bay Area Urban Debate League. Use our Amazon Affiliate links to support the podcast while you do your holiday shopping.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
14:56 – Strategy
48:27 – Interview: Eileen Sutton

Strategy

Edit: Replaced with the correct hand history!

WSOP Senior’s circuit event in Cherokee, NC. The blinds are 800/1,600 with a 400 ante. I have approximately 42K in chips and villain covers. There are 9 players at the table.

Villain in 3rd position limps. I am directly to his left with KsQs and raise to 3,500. BB calls.

Pot is now 14,900 and I have 38,100 remaining.

Flop is Jc 8h 4s. BB checks and villain bets 3,000. I call.

Pot is now 20,900 and I have $35,100 remaining. Turn is 9s making the board Jc 8h 4s 3s. Villain again leads for 3,000. I call.

We go to the river with $26,900 pot and my stack at $32,100. The river is a blank and he checks.

I folded, and I don’t think it’s close. The short explanation is #TheyAlwaysHaveIt. Here’s a longer one:

Is This a Bluff-Catcher?

The first question to ask is whether Villain could be raising worse for value. If yes, he’s either making a huge mistake, or you should not fold. Here, I think it’s unlikely that worse raises for value. The only lower flushes possible are 52dd and 42dd, which are unlikely in a raised pot, and in any event would be awfully ambitious raises (the “huge mistake” exception.

Some comments mention straights or overpairs raising. I really don’t see that happening. The mistake here, I imagine, comes from thinking of betting or raising primarily in terms of protection, which is in fact a very secondary consideration here. You can’t “protect” a hand that may well be behind already – the cost/risk of putting in a raise drawing dead far outweighs any protection benefit.

Now you might argue that a recreational player may not think in those terms, but most tend to err on the side of being too passive, especially when it comes to large bets. Not to mention that a player excessively concerned about protecting his hand would probably raise the flop, not the turn.

It’s also worth noting that a player overvaluing weaker hands may also overvalue slightly stronger hands such as Q- or J-high flushes, which is of course bad news for us.

In short, Hero has a bluff-catcher. To decide how to play such a hand, we can start by thinking exploitively about whether this is a spot where Villain is likely to over- or underbluff.

Is Villain Bluffing Enough?

This is quite a difficult spot for Villain to bluff, because (a) he’s raising into a player who is uncapped; and (b) in order to bluff, he needs to get to the turn with a hand that has minimal showdown value and that doesn’t mind re-opening the betting.

That last caveat is important, because, as many comments point out, a bare Ad is a hand without showdown value that sees the turn. If the raise were a shove, enabling Villain to realize the equity of his draw, I would consider that plausible. However, most players will, probably correctly, not raise the Ad here for fear of facing a shove. Again, I think that if he were inclined to raise this kind of hand, he’d be more likely to do it on the flop.

Hero does have blockers to higher flushes, making this perhaps a slightly-better-than-neutral-EV bluff catch against an optimal bluffing strategy. However, there are many reasons to think Villain is in fact underbluffing this spot quite severely.

I was glad to see that nobody really took the bait concerning the straight flush redraw. It, too, could make the hand a slightly-better-than-neutral bluff catcher, but it’s not nearly enough to overcome the situational factors here.

Results

I folded, as did the second player, but the Villain showed Ad Kd anyway. Frankly, I think even this is optimistic on his part (after all, I folded a lower flush). If he’s ahead, he probably has us drawing slim to dead anyway, and he blocks the hand most likely to pay him off (a K-high flush). In his shoes, I would call and probably call the river, though I can actually imagine scenarios where I fold his hand.

In my own shoes, I would not have bet my 9d8d on the river had Villain just called turn, and there’s a good chance I would have folded it to a bet. It really is not that high up in my range, as I can have lots of better flushes as well as most full houses.

We’ve got a great strategy segment, but the interview is really about trying to make sense of the current political situation in America, using frames of reference that poker players will understand. Were the polls wrong, or did Trump just run good? How might Trump govern? What do we as citizens do now? And what does this all mean for online poker?

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
6:43 – Strategy
33:31 – Matt Glassman

Strategy

$1/$3 NLHE

Hero ($1200) dealt KcJc on button. 3 limpers ahead. Hero Raises to $20. BB ($120) and CO ($900) call. $60 in pot.

Flop comes 9cQh2c. Check around to hero. Hero bets $35. BB raises to $105. CO folds. Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
2:25 – strategy
24:48 – danny

Strategy

1/2 NLHE, 9-handed.

Villain 1 raises UTG1 to $12, Villain 2 calls, Villain 3 ($105) in the CO calls. Hero ($220) calls with Ad Tc in the SB.

Flop ($50) Jh Qh Ks. Hero checks, V1 bets $40, V2 calls, and V3 goes all in for $93. Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 – hello and welcome
19:22 – donk bets with justin

Strategy

Hero (covers) raises to 12 UTG with AcKc
folds to button ($230) calls
BB ($300) calls.

Flop ($33 after rake): 5x7c8c

BB: leads for $20, Hero calls, Button Folds.

Turn (~$70 after rake): Kh

BB leads for $35, Hero calls.

River: (~$145) 2d

BB leads for $75, Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
18:29 Strategy
41:25 William Kassouf

Strategy

$2/$5 No-Limit Hold ‘Em

HJ ($2000) opens to $20. Hero ($1200) raises to $40 with Kd Kh. Button ($2000) calls, as does the small blind ($1500).

Flop ($160): 5d 6c 7h. SB checks, HJ checks, Hero bets $60, only SB calls.

Turn ($280): 3d. SB bets $150. Hero calls.

River ($580) 4d. SB bets $425. Hero?

My Day 1A table draw was quite tough, I think, given the field. Not a lot went right for me, and I busted just a few hours in.

Day 1B went much better. My starting table was amazing, I was playing six-handed with five pretty weak players and a stack that was in play from the start of the tournament and whose owner never showed up to claim it. By the end of the day, it was blinded off, contributing probably $500 in equity to me!

Despite getting into a number of good spots, I didn’t come out ahead after the first two hours of play. It was only after two better players showed up at the table that I claimed a few big pots.

I didn’t recognize the player who landed on my immediate left, but he fit the stereotype of a twenty-something grinder. He was kind of reserved and aloof and played as though he thought he everyone else was clueless (which, to be fair, several of the others basically were). This also resulted, however, in him doing some extremely exploitable things against me that cost him two large pots.

In the first, blinds are 100/200, effective stacks 40K, and the BB is the dead stack. UTG is a really obviously amateurish player who fumbles his chips and tries to raise to 300 but has to make it 400 and is blatantly not too strong here. However, I also know that this guy doesn’t like to fold to 3-bets and will even make some wild 4-bets, so I’d rather just call him with my T9dd. Problem is I’ve got this kid on my left who I’m pretty sure is going to 3-bet if I just call. So I figure fine, let him do it, we’ll play poker, and I call. Sure enough the kids makes it 2000, UTG calls, and so do I.

Flop is K32 with one diamond. We check to the kid who bets 3000, UTG folds, and I call. I can’t rep any strong hands yet, as I wouldn’t check-raise if I had a monster, but I still don’t think he has anything, and I’m going to find a bluff somewhere if I don’t pair up.

Turn is a 5, which is great because now I can bet into him, which is what I’d actually want to do with a lot of strong hands to keep from taking a free card with Ax. I bet 4000, and he quickly raises to 12K which is just extremely implausible. I mean, I don’t think he’s playing Kx this way, so either he has two-pair or better (even then I’d expect more of an act) or he’s full of it.

Still, it wasn’t easy to force myself to move in for 35K here. I didn’t relish sticking in 200 BBs with T-high no draw, but I really had a lot of confidence that this was going to work. He tanked for a while, during which I had more trouble than usual keeping a good poker face because I kept thinking about how stupid I was going to feel if he called. He eventually, folded, though, after which I felt like a genius.

A while later, at 300/600, there was now another good player at the table, and he opened to 1500 from UTG2. I just called with JJ in the SB, and kid from before raised to 5500 from the BB. This time I was sure he was strong. He wasn’t going out of his way to pick fights with the two best players at the table, especially when he had the option of just calling and seeing a cheap flop. Still, I wasn’t going to fold Jacks, so I called.

The flop came 983ss. I checked, he bet 7K (half the pot), and I called. The turn was a 5, I checked, and he bet 14K, leaving about 60K behind. There was some chance he was barreling AK, but that seemed unlikely, and he definitely didn’t have worse for value. In all likelihood, Jacks were no good. However, I also didn’t think he would have re-raised any smaller pairs or suited connectors when he could so easily call them, so really he couldn’t have better than one pair, while I had lots of sets, two-pairs, and straights in my range. This actually makes it a pretty bad idea for him to bet the turn, unless he just assumes I’m not capable of bluff raising him, because opening himself up to a bluff raise is a disaster. So, I went for it. Again, he tanked a long time, and this time he folded QQ face up!

I came into Day 2 with about twice the average in chips, but with 40% of the field remaining, we were still a ways from the money. A few hours later, my table broke, and I still had roughly the chips with which I’d started the day.

With blinds of 1500/3000/500, a player in middle position opened to 6500. I raised to 16500 with QQ on the button, and he pretty quickly ripped it in for 140K. I wasn’t thrilled, but I called it off with QQ and lost to AA, busting in about 100th place, with 63 paying. I’m not sure it was a good call – Nate and I discuss it a bit on the upcoming podcast.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
10:42 NLO8 Strategy

Hand 1

PokerStars – $300+$20|400/800 Ante 100 NL Hi/Lo (6 max) – Omaha Hi/Lo – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 24.38 BB
BB: 41.66 BB
UTG: 35.74 BB
MP: 48 BB
Hero (CO): 23.1 BB
BTN: 30.23 BB

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has 4c Kc As Ts
fold, MP raises to 2.19 BB, Hero calls 2.19 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.19 BB

Flop : (7.81 BB, 3 players) 3c 8h 6c
BB bets 3.9 BB, MP calls 3.9 BB, fold

Turn : (15.61 BB, 2 players) Jh
BB checks, MP bets 9 BB, BB calls 9 BB

River : (33.61 BB, 2 players) 4h
BB checks, MP bets 32.79 BB and is all-in, BB calls 26.45 BB and is all-in

MP shows Js Kh Ah 2s (High: Flush, Ace High, Low: 6432A)
(Pre 60%, Flop 36%, Turn 69%)

BB shows 2h 3s Ad 7c (High: One Pair, Threes, Low: 6432A)
(Pre 40%, Flop 64%, Turn 31%)

BB wins 21.63 BB
MP wins 64.88 BB

Hand 2

PokerStars – $300+$20|400/800 Ante 100 NL Hi/Lo (6 max) – Omaha Hi/Lo – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 25 BB
CO: 42.04 BB
BTN: 32.37 BB
SB: 34 BB
Hero (BB): 37.72 BB

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.13 BB) Hero has 4s 6c Tc 3s
fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 2.38 BB, Hero calls 1.38 BB

Flop : (5.38 BB, 2 players) Ts 7c 6s
SB bets 3.25 BB, Hero calls 3.25 BB

Turn : (11.88 BB, 2 players) 9s
SB checks, Hero bets 3.56 BB, SB raises to 8.13 BB, Hero calls 4.56 BB

River : (28.13 BB, 2 players) 9h
SB bets 20.12 BB and is all-in, fold

SB wins 28.13 BB

Timestamps

Intro 0:30
Strategy 4:17
Interview 33:27

Strategy

1/1/2 NLHE effective stacks $300

Here raises to $6 in the CO with 7h8h, Button calls, makes it $22 from the big blind. Hero calls and the button folds.

Flop ($49) 10c 8c 6c. Villain bets $20, Hero raises to $85, Villain calls

Turn ($219) 2d. Villain checks, Hero checks.

River 8d. Villain checks, Hero?

Billy’s latest adventure is stand-up comedy. You can check out his work on Facebook and Instagram.

Timestamps

0:30 -hello
3:20 -2NL flopped FD
27:17 -billy

Strategy

2NL 6 max on ACR. Effective stacks $2.60.

I am UTG with KcJc and open $0.06. Villain calls on Button.

Flop comes 8c 2c 5. I bet $0.06 into $0.15. Villain raises to $0.22. I re-raise to $0.82, which leaves the villain to call $0.60 for a pot of $1.79. This raise also leaves me a pot sized bet behind.

Turn is 5c, making the board 8c2c5s 5c. I check and the villain checks behind.

River Ks, making the board 8c2c5s 5c Ks. Hero?

DP1: Uncontroversial.

DP2: Uncontroversial at this stack depth. With deeper stacks, this is a reasonable BB vs BN 3-betting candidate, but with 100BB a 3-bet will just isolate the stronger part of Villain’s range without the opportunity to put pressure on him with draws.

DP3: I don’t see a case for a leading range. This is a really static board, which means protection isn’t much of a concern, and that’s even more true if Villain is going to c-bet too often. Hero probably has more equity on this flop, especially if Villain’s pre-flop range is too wide, but when the pot gets really large, Villain will have a slight range advantage. So, I’m really not looking to force big pots from out of position. I just rarely mind this flop checking through, so I don’t have incentive to develop a leading range.

DP4: Villain’s bet size is large for such a static board. That’s not a big deal in and of itself, but it becomes a problem if he’s also c-betting at a high frequency. For instance, this particular hand probably isn’t a +EV bet if the bet is going to be this large, as he’ll too often be drawing dead against my calling range.

DP5: I don’t think this is close. It’s similar to the question of whether to donk the flop: I don’t have many hands that want to build the pot here. Even with like A8 I can’t really check-raise for value. If I’m going to turn the hand into a bluff, there will be opportunities to do that later. Also, if I check-raise and then turn a flush, I’m not sure that I get to play it like the nuts. Finally, I have showdown value against a too-frequent c-better!

DP6: This seems to be the spot that surprised the most people. At this point I have a really significant equity advantage, especially against someone who c-bets too often. Most of my flop check-call range is going to be flush draws, trips, and pairs. All of those can value/protection bet this turn for a small size and most won’t fold to a bet. The few unpaired hands in my range love having the opportunity to bluff, and even for small sizing, it’s not that easy for Villain to peel here with, say, an underpair to the board. We should not expect him to bluff this card often. Sometimes he’ll value bet worse on the turn and then check back river, which isn’t great for us, and if he bets twice, Hero’s hand is just a bluff-catcher, albeit a profitable one. Forcing him to fold or put money into the pot on this turn card is good for Hero.

As for sizing, my range is quite strong, so as I said, even at this size underpairs or hands like the one he has have a tough decision. Bare flush draws aren’t going to be a big part of his range, and even when they are, it’s not trivial to peel with them, as he’s rarely drawing to nine clean outs.

DP7: I think this is the sort of hand that should be close to indifferent against my bet. The problem is that he’s drawing slim or dead against my value range and my bluffing range has outs. Betting larger would only help make his decisions easy with hands like this.

DP8: This is a tough card to value bet, given how strong my range is and the fact that I block second-best flush draws. There’s more of a case for betting Qs 8s, though even then check-calling could be best. Better to let my blockers work for me, by playing my hand as a bluff-catcher, rather than against me, by playing it as a thin value bet.

Dp9: This may be the result of an Ed Miller pyramid error. In other words, if Villain peels too wide on the turn, then he simply has too many weak hands in his range on the river. Yes, this is the bottom of his range and he’ll rarely win by checking, but if his bottom is too wide, then trying to bluff with all of it will make my bluff-catches very profitable.

DP10: Trivial.

Thanks for playing!

You can visit Chris Moorman’s website and follow him on Twitter.

Timestamps

0:30 hello & strategy
22:44 chris moorman

Strategy

2/5 table at the rio. I’m in the sb with AsQc. UTG limps for 5, UTG +1 raises to 15. Folds around to a pretty tight player on the button who makes it $45. I call, the limper calls, and UTG +1 calls.

Flop ($180): Ah9s8h

I bet $135. The UTG limper folds and the UTG +1 ships it all in pretty quickly so it’s $455 total – $320 more. Button folds….

Strategy

$2/$5 NLHE

Hero ($1000) limps JJ UTG. MP limps, CO ($900) raises to $30, Button ($900 calls), Hero raises to $125, MP folds, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop ($375 in pot) Kh Qd Jh. Hero bets $175, CO calls, Button folds.

Turn ($725 in pot) 7d. Hero bets $275, CO calls.

River ($1275) 2s. Hero shoves $350, Villain calls.

Timestamps

The other fun thing about my starting table was that Ian Simpson was there. If you don’t know Ian, you will soon. We’ve already recorded an interview with him and will publish it perhaps as early as this coming Monday, if it doesn’t get pre-empted by WSOP content (will depend on how much time we find to record in the next few days).

Nate and I had high hopes of getting dinner with Ian and Ryan Hall, but it turned out that the break was only 30 minutes, which caused Ryan to drop out, and Ian had already busted and left, so it was just Nate and me. And in fact, if Nate hadn’t busted shortly before dinner break and volunteered to get a table and place an order in advance, we wouldn’t even have managed that. I really don’t understand the point of a 30 minute dinner break.

Overall I think I played perhaps the best tournament poker I have yet in this event. I got moved away from my awesome starting table and spent the rest of the day tangling (or trying not to tangle) with some tough young Europeans. Unfortunately I just kept losing pre-flop all ins after chipping up.

There was one other hand I was proud of. At 400/800/100, I opened to 2000 with Jc 9c in the CO, and the BB, one of aforementioned Europeans, re-raised to 6000. There are some people who will be quite strong when they three-bet from the big blind, preferring to call most hands that they might use as “light” three-bets, and although I did expect this player to be polarized, I would expect him to have a more good/balanced three-betting strategy even from the big blind. So, I called with about 31K behind.

The flop came Qc 9hs 8c, and he bet 6K. I think a lot of people will just jam here because they know they have a lot of equity and they aren’t comfortable playing future streets. With a slightly weaker hand, say Kc Tc, I think shoving is correct – you’d rather get all in on the flop, ideally with some fold equity, than call and get forced off your equity on a blank turn.

However, I think my hand is strong enough to get all in no matter the turn card, and I don’t think Villain will fold many hands with substantial equity. It’s important to consider all of your options rather than just defaulting to a shove any time you have enough equity to get all in, and here I think there’s more value in calling than shoving.

The turn was a Q, and we both checked. The river was the 3s, we both checked again, and he showed Aces to win the pot. To be clear, although this was a nice side benefit of just calling the flop, avoiding a stack off to overpairs on a few specific runouts is really not the main reason to call the flop. I’m going to be stacking off on most turns, this was just the rare card that neither of us particularly wanted to bet, and that happened to work to my advantage.

I had a weirder spot with the most obviously recreational player at the table, an older woman who was quite friendly and whom I’m sure I’ve seen around before and perhaps even played with. She opened from middle position to 1700 (BB was still 800), and I called with 52s in my BB.

The flop came 877r, and we both checked.

The turn was a 2, I bet 3000, and she called.

The river was a 3, and I was a bit unsure how to proceed. I expected to have the best hand quite often, as I think she’d bet pairs on the flop almost always. Was she really going to call me down twice with Ace-high though? On this board, it seemed plausible. I’ve actually coached a few people who are roughly in her demographic and quite aware of their image and accustomed to people who look like me firing spewy bluffs at people who look like them. So, I bet 6000, and she called with K7s for trips, which it actually surprised me a bit that she would have that based on her pre-flop position (not that she couldn’t have other 7x) and doesn’t really tell me anything one way or the other about the river bet.

A few orbits later, with the BB at 1000, she opened my big blind again, to 2200. This time, I held 22. I decided to jam for my last 18K, based on the fact that she’d showed down the K7s and also A6o from a similar position. I also thought that she might fold a bit too much, perhaps something as strong as AJo. Frankly, though, this is probably a little spewy, and if we’re being honest, I caught a whiff of strength when she looked at her cards.

Sure enough, she called with 88 to bust me. The only consolation was that even if I had called with the 22, I would have flopped a set and lost to a turned 8, so in this case the mistake didn’t actually cost me anything, but it was a mistake nonetheless.

Nate and I are going to play the Team Event at the WSOP today, which should be fun.

I got off to a good start in the $1500 but ran into some annoying spots. At 150/300, the CO, the weakest player at the table, opened to 1000, and I had KJs on the button. Based on the size of his raise, I figured he was strong, which means calling at all here is borderline, but I was trying to get into pots with him, I had position and a reasonable hand, and we were about 80BBs deep, so I hopped in there.

Then the SB, a player who’d mostly been quite passive, suddenly got it into his head to squeeze. Maybe I was just salty, but just the way he looked at us and gathered his chips, I really didn’t think he had anything. He made it 3500, the CO happily shoved, I folded, and the SB quickly folded as well. I have no idea what prompted him to do that,

The very next hand, a tilted player in early position opened to 875, the HJ (the CO from the previous hand) called, and I called QTs on the CO. The flop came KJ6 with one of my suit, the original raiser checked, and the HJ made a big bet, like 80% pot. Obviously I wasn’t getting immediate odds to draw, but I figured my implied odds would be very good if I hit, so I called. Then the original raiser went into the tank, and it was instantly obvious he was strong and looking to check-raise. He drew the process out for over a minute, stacking and restacking chips and trying to act torn about his decision, which only made it more obvious that he was strong. He raised, the HJ instantly folded, and I eyed his stack but had no choice to fold myself, as he was going to have less than a pot-sized bet behind.

A while later, at a different table, at the 250/500 level, I opened to 1100 with K6o in the CO. Not exactly standard, but the BB seemed very amateurish. Only he called.

The flop came Q63 with two clubs, and I held the Kc. He checked, I bet 1100, and he raised to 5000. My plan, after betting so small on the flop, was to call a check-raise, but I wasn’t expecting such a large one. I think I should have just folded right there, but I called.

The turn was another Q, and he jammed for a pot-sized bet. It seemed crazy not to call him when the only hand I was worried about just got less likely, but I took my time and tried to get a read. Based on his body language, he seemed quite comfortable, and I ultimately folded.

Part of me definitely feels like if I’m not calling a shove on that turn then there’s really no point in calling the flop. Then the other part of me argues that what my flop call bought me was the opportunity to make a read-based decision on the turn, and I (hopefully) made the right one.

The very next hand, I had about 28BB, and the action folded to me in the SB with 77. I’ve been experimenting with open limping a lot from the SB, and I think this is a good spot for it. There aren’t hands I want to open jam for this amount, and there are a lot of hands I don’t really want to raise-call or raise-fold for this amount, which means there’s a lot of merit to a limping strategy. With 77 specifically, raising and getting called doesn’t even produce that great of a situation, as most flops will be difficult to play.

My plan was to shove over a raise, but the BB took that play away from me by shipping his stack. Although I wasn’t eager to race for such a large pot, I thought he would rarely jam hands that dominated me but jam some hands I dominated, including smaller pairs and Ax, which makes calling pretty profitable if high-variance. I called and lost a race to T9s.

Gonna play the $1000 Turbo NLHE today.

Blinds were still 25/50, and I opened to 150 with Kc Qc in the HJ. The CO, SB, and BB all called.

The flop came 975 with two clubs, and the blinds checked. I certainly wouldn’t just c-bet arbitrarily into three opponents here, but with two overs and a flush draw, it’s an easy bet. I bet 450, and only the CO called.

The 2h turned, and on such a blank card, I think he’s more or less capped out at one pair, maybe TT or JJ at best and almost always weaker than that, so it’s a great spot for me to bombs away. I bet 1500, and he quickly called. The fact that he didn’t even consider raising made me even more certain that the didn’t have two-pair or a set.

So, I didn’t have to sweat a full house on the 9c river. I also didn’t think he’d call the turn with bare flush draws, at least not so quickly, so the only better hands in his range figured to bet Ac 8c and Ac 6c. I expected him to have T9 and 98 more frequently, and be unable to fold trips. I bet 4000, and he called with Ac 8c.

Nothing of great interest happened after that. I got a double up with AQ by convincing my opponent to spaz with 77 on a Q9xxx board.

Once I was down to 20 blinds, I wasn’t getting any shoving spots. Mostly my cards were bad, but also there was a guy with a big stack on my right who’d decided that he should play more than half the hands he was dealt. I’m honestly not sure he was joking/posturing when he wondered out loud whether he should call my 11BB UTG shove blind (I had AJo, and he folded).

A few hands later he opened to 1100 on the button, which it was really hard for me to imagine him folding a button, so I had a pretty easy shove for 5K or so with 22 in the SB. He called with A4o to bust me.

After the tournament I went and hung out with Carlos for a bit at the Tournament Poker Edge booth, then decided to check out the cash game scene at the Rio.

It truly does seem to get worse there every year. Now there are no chip runners (which, I realize, may not be their fault, but it sucks either way), which means that when they open a new game it takes a long time to start because people have to go wait in line at the cage, buy chips, then take them to the table, and of course no one wants to sit at the table waiting for others to show up, and certainly not come over from an already-running game to get the new one started, so it’s just a slow process and I can only imagine that the most impulsive (ie most desirable to have at your table) players are not sticking around for all that.

My first table was pretty boring, everyone seemed decent enough and the average stack was less than $2K, which is quite small for an uncapped $5/$10.

I was about to quit when my table change came through and I landed at a new table where my $6500 made me just the third largest stack! Had there been chip runners, I would have added on, but as it was I decided just to make do with 650 big blinds.

It was a fun game, nobody spewing but nobody playing particularly good deep-stacked poker, and I was winning solidly. Then, literally the hand before I was going to quit:

I open 22 to $40 UTG (believe we were 7-handed at the time), and four people call. The flop comes K72r. I bet $150, and only the button called. I had about $7500 at the time, and she covered me.

The turn was another K. I checked, figuring a check-raise could get more money in against a K and also give her a chance to bluff/protection bet weaker hands. She checked behind.

The river card was something small (not a 2!), and with $500 in the pot, I threw out a $1K chip. Overbetting was not unprecedented for me, and none of those hands had yet gone to showdown.

She asked if that was a $500 chip, the dealer told her it was $1000, and then she nodded and said, “All in.” Faced with calling $6K to win $8500, I really don’t think is a tough fold at all. I’m uncapped, which means I have both nut hands and better bluff-catchers, not that I would expect to see many bluffs here anyway.

Even though that basically wiped out my profit for the night, I quit feeling pretty good about myself. Among other things, I probably would have lost my ass if she’d bet the turn!

For some crazy reason the Monster Stack is not a re-entry, so I’m just going to play cash tonight, probably at Bellagio, and then hit up the $1K Turbo WSOP event tomorrow morning.

Timestamps

0:30 hello and welcome
5:45 strategy
46:24 christian

Strategy

$5/10 at Bellagio

Pre-flop:
UTG+1 raised to $15 (sic). I was hijack $800 stack holding AcQs. I called. Cutoff $2500 stack called. Button $1500 stack called. Small blind folded. Big blind $7000 stack called.

4 callers $75 pot

Flop:
AsKsQx
Checked to me, I bet $50. Villain called. Big blind called. Original raiser folded.

$225 pot

Turn: 7x
big blind checked, I bet $150, villain called and big blind folded.

$525 pot

River Tx:
I checked. Villain shoved.

Q: I’ve often wondered how best to consider stack size when confronted by 3 or 4 bets. I have a vague sense it is about trying to get value out of my strong hands, narrow ranges and lower my SPR, but I’d be lying if I knew enough to not feel a little lost here.

For example, …
– I have AKs and open 2.2BB
– V 3-bets to 7BB
– I ?…with 20BB effective vs 80BB vs 200BB…?
At 20BB I’m jaming.
At 80BB am I just calling or 4-betting? Wouldn’t a 4-bet be folding out hands I want in, like AQs?
At 200BB do I add some/more 4-bets? If so, can I ever fold to a reasonable 5-bet?
What about holding KK facing a 5-bet with 200BB effective.
What about QQ…the absence of a K blocker and the presence of a Q blocker makes it more likely we are flipping or behind an average 4-bet calling/raising range? If that is true, do we 3-bet/jam 20BB but 3-bet/call 200BB (just as another example of my question).

I realize this is a pretty wide question and assuming no read on V, and may even be stylistic to some extent, but any feedback would be quite welcome.

A: You’re on the right track with your thinking, but you left out a critical detail from your original question: position. The only reason anyone plays any hand other than Aces is that there is money in the pot pre-flop. The fewer people there are still to act behind me, the more hands I can (and therefore should) profitably open raise.

Once someone raises in front of me, I have a new dilemma: there is more money in the pot, but there is also someone who is claiming to have a strong hand. However, I know that, like me, he has some incentive to raise even without the nuts, which is why I probably don’t have to have the nuts to re-raise him.

When you have a hand that you believe to be ahead of the original raiser’s opening range, you have to make a decision: do I call, 3-bet, or even fold? You need to estimate the expected value of each and choose the option with the highest EV. When considering a 3-bet, this basically means answering four questions:

1. How often will my opponent fold, and how much do I have to gain from those folds? Hands like AK and JJ benefit more from fold equity than KK or AA do, even though you may not be raising them “as a bluff” (in other words, you may also expect to be ahead of a calling or even 4-betting range).

2. How often will my opponent call, and what can I expect that call to be worth? This is a function of your equity vs a likely calling range as well as how well your hand will play after the flop (if your 3-bet is not all in).

3. How often will my opponent 4-bet, and how will I fare against a 4-betting range? Especially when a 4-bet isn’t likely, it’s OK to 3-bet a hand for value even though you will fold to a 4-bet.

4. How does the EV of calling compare to the EV of 3-betting (which is determined by the above three questions)?

We don’t need to inquire about the EV of folding, as it’s always 0. So generally, if calling or 3-betting has positive EV, we can rule out folding, though there are tournament situations where cEV and $EV deviate significantly.

Of course in many cases you don’t know exactly how your opponent will respond and so can’t put exact numbers on these things. However, you should recognize that there’s a relationship between them. If you opponent opens from the CO and you have AK on the button, you are probably far enough ahead of his opening range that he will either fold very often or call/4-bet a range that AK is well ahead of. Either way, you win. The one thing that can’t happen is for your opponent to rarely fold and also reliably have AK smoked. It’s hard to get dealt a hand that strong, especially when an A and a K are accounted for, and your opponent has incentive to raise a wide enough range from the CO.

It is possible that your opponent doesn’t properly understand or respond to his incentive to attack the blinds and is a huge nit when it comes to raising the CO. If you knew that, you might prefer not to 3-bet him with AK.

However, if you do unwittingly 3-bet the nit with AK, that doesn’t mean that his nitty strategy is exploiting you. For one thing, the mere fact that he is raising suggests he is not a nit (nits raise less often than other players). But even if he is, you are passively benefiting from many situations where you would have had to fold your button if he’d raised his CO, but because he made overly tight folds from the CO, you got to make a +EV raise on your button. Basically, all those folding mistakes he makes from the CO overwhelm whatever he gains by getting lucky enough to “trap” you when he has AA in the CO and you have AK on the button.

If you’re interested in examining these spots in greater depth and getting a sense of what balanced opening, 3-betting, 4-betting, etc. ranges look like, Hold ‘Em Resources Calculator is a very good tool for the job.

Timestamps

0:30 hello and welcome
11:30 strategy

Strategy

Hand 1

2/5 game at the Aria. I have a stack of about 1400. Villain covers.

Villain raises from UTG+1 to 20, gets two callers. I have pocket aces in the BB. I raise to 85. Villain calls, callers fold.

Pot is now about $205. Flop 345 rainbow. Both players check.

Turn 2. I check, Villain bets $150, I call.

Pot is $505. River Q. I check, Villain bets $330.

Hand 2

$2/$5 live game. Villain has $500, Hero coves. Hero raises to $25 with AQss. Tilted guy re raises to $100. Hero calls.

Flop is Q74 two diamonds.  There is $200 in the pot and he leads out for a pot sized $200 bet. Hero calls.

Turn is 7h. Villain shoves $200, Hero calls.

Contrary to the fancy image seen here, The Thinking Poker Diaries Volume 8 is actually available only as an e-book. It’s on sale now in the Kindle Store, and EPUB, Kindle, and PDF versions will be available on Nitcast.com shortly.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello & welcome
10:59 – strat
32:05 – andrew moreno

Strategy

MP limps, the button makes it $5, and I raise to $16.5. MP calls and the button folds.

Flop is A79 with the 7 and 9 of spades. I bet $22 and he calls. The pot is $82, and he has $80 behind.

The turn is a blank (low non-spade) and I shove.

If you haven’t yet read Volume One, well, there’s no reason you’d have to to make sense of this book, but why haven’t you?!

You can follow Benjamin on Twitter @Reasons14 and watch his instructional videos at Tournament Poker Edge. He recommends reading Sapiens and The Four Hour Work Week and listening to Sigur Rós, Denali, Portishead, Red Hot Chili Peppers, and Radiohead.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello and welcome
4:33 – PLO8 strategy
28:12 – benjamin reason

Strategy

Three-handed $10/$25/$50 PLO8.

Villain raises from the SB to $175 announcing that he “almost never does this”. I pause, question him, and he states that he raised blind. I don’t know him well enough to know if this is always the truth.

I raise to 550 with A2QQshhd. Button folds and villain makes it 1650.

I called and the flop was K85 rainbow. He quickly bets the pot of $3350 leaving $7000 effective behind.

Collin is also the author or co-author of three poker books (Heads-Up No-Limit Hold ‘Em, Sit-and-Go Strategy, and The Math of Hold ‘Em) as well as co-author, with his wife Katie Dozier, of The Superuser. He produces instructional videos for CardRunners. You can follow him on Twitter @teammoshman.

We’ve also got a special treat for you in the strategy segment. Brian Koppelman, whom we interviewed on Episode 149, is back to talk strategy, specifically how to play against a deep-stacked maniac.

Enjoy!

Timestamps

0:30 H&W
23:58 – BK
39:22 – CM

I’ll start by saying that although there are some interesting concepts at play here, this specific spot is not really an important one to get right. For one thing, it’s not exactly an everyday occurrence. Perhaps more importantly, everyone seems to be in agreement that Villain is unlikely to put another dollar in the pot no matter what Hero does, so we can expect the Expected Values of all available options to be quite similar.

Value Betting

There’s some game theory here related to whether Villain has any incentive to call the river with a bluff-catcher, whether Hero should be able to value bet an unimproved bluff catcher, whether Villain should ever check quads, etc. But there’s an important exploitive concept at play as well, which James Antill raises quite succiently: “Villain can’t make a calling mistake if we don’t bet.”

In theory there shouldn’t be much value in betting. Villain took a very polarizing line, and any showdown value he had would have been better played as a bluff-catcher than as such a big bluff. So really, he should either have a boat or better, or a hand that couldn’t even consider calling.

Of course, there also shouldn’t be much risk in betting. I’m embarrassed to say the very important question of whether I blocked 64s did not occur to me at the table. I don’t know for certain that the river was the 4d – I made up the suit for this post, wrongly thinking it unimportant. Of course, I did consider that Villain had no real reason to check a big boat or quads on the river. After all, we’re seriously considering not betting a hand that would almost certainly call a shove! Checking could induce a bluff, but what hand that benefits from bluffing could Hero take to the river?

Patrick raises the very good point that, “As played, it’s kind of a weird SPR by the river that makes getting stacks in hard to do without either an over bet or a raise, which…I’m not sure, but I would say it leans away from V having a stack able value hand like 33.” However, even seemingly good opponents make mistakes, and we want to give them the opportunity to do so. Both checking quads and calling the river without a 6 are probably mistakes, but the latter is a much easier mistake to make.

I don’t agree with James Antill that, “If villain takes this line with worse and is going to hero call it then he’s as likely to do it with 1.5x as 0.25x pot.” Our best hope is to offer Villain such good pot odds that he can’t resist calling (or spazzes out and shoves) with a hand that he wasn’t originally thinking of as a bluff-catcher. He certainly ought to be price-sensitive, given how easily Hero can have a 6 and how difficult it is to find a bluffing candidate.

Bluff Shoving

I also didn’t consider the option of shoving to get Villain off of a chop. I don’t think it’s the best way to play the hand, but it is worth considering, to kudos to those of you who thought of it.

Sean is right that if Villain is equally likely to check any given combo of 6x or 44, and he always folds the 6x, then shoving would be best. However, I think it’s far from certain that Villain will fold a 6 to a shove, even if that would be the correct play.

Checking

The one argument in favor checking that hasn’t yet been made is that we get to see Villain’s likely bluff. It’s very rare that I factor the value of seeing the Villain’s cards into my decision, and I can’t claim that I did so in real time either, but it did prove a bit interesting. And in this case, where there’s so little value in betting anyway, the small value of seeing Villain’s cards might actually outweigh it.

Results

I checked back, and Villain showed As 9s. This certainly raises the question of whether he might have called a $400 bet, but is interesting for other reasons as well. For instance, I don’t think it’s the best candidate for either donking or three-betting the flop. In fact, it probably has enough showdown value to check and call a bet.

We’re playing 10/25 NLHE with effective stacks of about $8K. The main Villain, in the SB, is a capable and experienced player, not 100% sure whether he’s a pro but he’s good enough that I think he could be. I imagine that he has a similar opinion of me. The BB is definitely a pro and strong player.

I’m going to go ahead and skip to the river decision, because I’ve already explained my plan for a three-bet.

Hero opens to $75 with Kd 6d on the button. SB and BB both call.

Flop ($220 in pot) 6h 6c 3s. SB bets $100, BB folds, Hero raises to $300, SB raises to $875, Hero calls.

Turn ($1970 in pot) 3d. SB bets $1050, Hero calls.

River ($4070 in pot) 4s. SB checks, there’s about $6000 in the effective stacks, Hero?

Post your preferred play, along with your reasons, here. I’ll respond as I can in the comments and post the next decision point on Saturday.

Assessing Range Advantage

The only information I gave about the SB was that he’s “capable and experienced” and probably has “a similar opinion of me”. This really isn’t enough to make aggressively exploitive assumptions about what his bet “means” (if he’s doing a good job of balancing, it doesn’t mean any single thing) or how he’ll respond to a 3-bet.

Let’s start instead by examining some structural features of the situation, at the time that we see the flop, before there’s any action. I have to agree with Matt that, “I really don’t see him having a wide calling range from the SB. Playing out of position against tough opponents is not very easy, of course, and calling invites a third (also competent) player into the hand, which leads me to believe that he will be heavy on 3betting and folding from this spot.”

This isn’t an exploitive assumption; he’s out of position and closing the action, so he really is constrained. He can’t just decide to call with a bunch of weak hands because that’s his “style”. If he doesn’t have a disproportionate amount of realizable equity, which will usually be the case, his best play is to fold pre-flop. Many of the hands that do have that kind of equity do better by raising pre-flop. If we act too strongly on these assumptions, then we give him incentive to call more weak or strong hands, but still, we should recognize that he’s dealing with some heavy pre-flop constraints.

Likewise, we can recognize that my range can and should be rather wide, again not as a question of style but because with the button and very deep stacks, there are simply a lot of hands where raising is more profitable than folding. And the BB can have a much wider range than the SB, given that he is closing the action and getting a better price.

I suspect that if we were to compare the overall equity of the SB’s range vs. mine, he would be ahead. Even though I have some very strong hands that’s unlikely to call pre-flop, such as AA or K6s, I also hold a lot of weak hands that he’s unlikely to call pre-flop, such as 74s.

On Donking and Raising

This constrains me a bit: I can’t expect to continuation bet profitably with anywhere near 100% of my range, particularly given that there is also a third player in the pot. So, I will check the flop a significantly non-zero amount of the time, and the SB has many hands like pocket pairs and Ax that are likely best but very vulnerable to free cards. These hands have some interest in donking the flop in order to deny me equity.

However, because his range is, not exactly capped, but weaker at the top end than mine, he’s vulnerable to getting raised by a polarized range. So, his donking range should contain some hands that can profitably continue to a raise, either by calling or three-betting (sometimes for value, sometimes as a bluff).

K6 fares well against those ranges. It figures to be ahead of his calling range (and even ahead of his range for calling down multiple streets), and although it may turn into a bluff catcher if Villain three-bets, it will be a very good bluff-catcher in that it blocks some portion of his value range and has equity against it as well. We may not be rooting for a three-bet, but we shouldn’t be lost about what to do when three-bet, either. I think calling down will yield a profit, even if it’s not the part of the game tree where we’d ideally end up. When we’re holding a 6, though, Villain only has two choices: three-bet rarely, or three-bet a bluff-heavy range. Considering that we’re prepared to call to the river, either is fine.

It’s true that the majority of my continuing range will not benefit from raising, and I’ll respond to his bet far more often by calling than by raising. It’s also true that because my calling range will consist mostly of hands that do not want to play large pots, SB will have some incentive to make large, possibly over-, bets on subsequent streets with a polarized range. This gives me some incentive to just call the flop with very strong hands, which in turn reduces his incentive to employ such a strategy.

These situations usually resolve themselves in a mixed strategy: I should call some hands that are prepared to take a lot of heat, and also raise some such hands. MCG and PokerNoob both do a good job of explaining why K6 is a better candidate for raising than calling.

The Bottom Line

K6 is an extremely strong hand here, so close to the top of Hero’s range that it can happily put in four bets for value and profitably, if begrudgingly, call down five bets as a bluff-catcher. Calling makes it tricky to get that fourth bet in. Sometimes Villain will just check-call down, and we’ll get only three bets (though overbetting might be able to compensate for this). Even if he does bet the turn, as Raffi says, “flatting and potentially raising at a later point makes it really hard to rep a bluff.”

It’s also worth pointing out that, unless Hero’s hand improves, it will not be quite as strong on future streets. Each new card that comes, unless it’s a K or a 6, pushes our hand, as well as our value targets, further from the nuts.

Essentially, this is a hand that benefits from frontloading, and I think raising with it is generally best. You may not be accustomed to thinking about your kicker when you have trips, but when you’re this deep, it matters.

Results and the next decision point are coming in the next post.

Strategy

No Limit Hold’em $0.10/$0.20
Winamax Poker
3 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com – Mac OS X hand history analysis and tracking

Stacks:
BTN – BTN ($20.72)
SB – Hero ($34.73)
BB – BB ($7.80)

Preflop: ($0.30, 3 players) Hero is SB with Q A
BTN raises to $0.40, Hero raises to $1.60, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.20

Flop: J 8 5 ($3.40, 2 players – BTN: $19.12, Hero: $33.13)
Hero bets $1.80, BTN calls $1.80

Turn: T ($7.00, 2 players – BTN: $17.32, Hero: $31.33)
Hero bets $3.80, BTN calls $3.80

River: 9 ($14.60, 2 players – BTN: $13.52, Hero: $27.53)
Hero bets $4.00, BTN calls $4.00

Total Pot: $22.60
BTN shows A T (One pair : Tens)
Hero shows Q A (Straight Queen high)

Hero wins $21.13

If you’d like a copy of the interviews we discuss during the show, please write me at andrew (at) thinkingpoker (dot) net and I’ll send you one.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello and Welcome
5:20 – Strategy
40:39 – Gareth

Strategy

This week’s strategy discussion focuses on these hands posted to the Tournament Poker Edge forums. Not a member of TPE? No worries, you can still access the forums, but you really ought to consider joining the site.

“Poker lingo is full of bluster and bravado. For some, the colorful language and the opportunity to spin dramatic narratives about aggression and courage is an important part of the game’s appeal….

I also suspect, though, that all these macho turns-of-phrase and bellicose metaphors obscure the mathematical side of the game. It often seems to me that players who worry about “defending” their big blind, or getting “bullied”, are more concerned about damage to their ego than to their expected value.”

Of course it’s not just about language; there’s plenty of strategy content as well! Please have a look and let me know what you think. Do you enjoy turning your poker game into a story of bravery and bravado? Do you find these kinds of metaphors particularly helpful or unhelpful?

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
4:45 Strategy Part 1
43:28 Strategy with Jason Simon

Strategy

Hand 1

$1/$2 NLHE at the Motown Casino. I open with A K in MP to $10, get five callers including both villains.

Flop (six players, $55 after rake): K 9 3. Checks to me. I bet $40, three folds, V1 in CO raises to $80, V2 in BB calls, Hero ?.

Hand 2

$550 tourney at Sands 45 minute levels. I’m at level 11, blinds 600/1200/200, I have 55K, villain covers slightly.

Flopped a set of 8’s, on a 983 2 spade flop. Original raiser bets 6k, I raise to 16K, he thinks and calls.

Turn J spade, he bets 20K. Hero?

I primarily review his play at the final three tables of a $10 rebuy tournament, all the way down to heads up. If you need help making or triumphing at a final table – and who doesn’t?! – be sure to take advantage of this FREE video. Or better yet, see how you can have me review one of your hand histories!

Timestamps
0:30 – hello & welcome
4:48 – strategy
30:28 – TJ

Reading List

The 2+2 Thread That Started It All

Managing Oneself by Peter Drucker

The One Thing by Gary Keller

The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler

Elements of Poker by Tommy Angelo

Thinking Tournament Poker by Nate Meyvis & Friends

In the meantime, please enjoy the next PLO8 strategy video from Nate and myself:

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
33:24 – interview

Strategy

$5/$5/$10 PLO $1500 effective stacks

Button opens $40, Hero calls Ah Kd 9c 4h in SB, BB calls, straddle calls.

Flop ($160) Ad Qh 4d. Three checks, button bets $120, Hero calls, two folds.

Turn ($400) 6h. Hero checks, Villain bets $340, Hero calls.

River ($1080) Qc. Hero checks, Villain bets $480, Hero?

Please contribute here!

Thanks to everyone who’s donated already, you’ve far exceeded what I thought we were likely to raise. As a result, it’s been tough to keep pace with releasing all the free strategy videos I promised. Thankfully Nate came through in a pinch and gave me permission to use some videos we’d previously recorded. So here’s the first of a three-part series in which we have fun reviewing my play in a PLO8 WCOOP event. Enjoy, and happy new year!

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In the strategy segment, we discuss common mistakes and misunderstandings about short-stacked play.

If you missed any of the recent interviews we discuss with Martin, you can catch up on Brian Koppelman and Brad Willis.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
8:57 – Strategy: The 20-40BB Stack
37:45 – Martin Harris