Jessica Vierling

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Timestamps

0:30 hello
3:07 danny sprung (featuring strategy)

Strategy

1st hand after 1st break, I have Red Kings. I raise UTG, and am 3 bet by a straightforward player. We are 100BB deep at this point. I call.

Flop T63 Rainbow, we both check.

Turn is Jd, bringing backdoor diamond draw. I bet 1/2 pot and Villain raised.

_________

I open EP, Villain 3-bets, and I flat call AKdd.

The flop was a spectacular Kh4d2d, I checked, Villain continued, and I made a very big check raise.

Timestamps

0:30 hello
24:19 strategy

Links

Bundyville
Stone Mattress
Underworld

Strategy

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/28666025_17A2638EF1

HH below for those who can’t open Boomplayer.

PokerStars Hand #190740522966: Tournament #2378947329, $500+$500+$50 USD Hold’em No Limit – Level VIII (500/1000) – 2018/09/06 15:38:54 ET
Table ‘2378947329 32’ 8-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: MrSweets28 (151471 in chips, $1000 bounty)
Seat 2: twirlpro (103945 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 3: ThePateychuk (33893 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 4: flavioreis88 (32690 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 5: dlanger610 (21467 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 6: foucault82 (106373 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 7: gremistaAK (61218 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 8: abarone68 (40999 in chips, $750 bounty)
MrSweets28: posts the ante 125
twirlpro: posts the ante 125
ThePateychuk: posts the ante 125
flavioreis88: posts the ante 125
dlanger610: posts the ante 125
foucault82: posts the ante 125
gremistaAK: posts the ante 125
abarone68: posts the ante 125
flavioreis88: posts small blind 500
dlanger610: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to foucault82 [Ah Kh]
foucault82: raises 1222 to 2222
gremistaAK: raises 4778 to 7000
abarone68: folds
MrSweets28: raises 9500 to 16500
twirlpro: folds
ThePateychuk: folds
flavioreis88: folds
dlanger610: folds
foucault82: calls 14278
gremistaAK: calls 9500
*** FLOP *** [6c 5c 3s]
foucault82: checks
gremistaAK: checks
MrSweets28: bets 12500
foucault82: calls 12500
gremistaAK: folds
*** TURN *** [6c 5c 3s] [2d]
foucault82: checks
MrSweets28: checks
*** RIVER *** [6c 5c 3s 2d] [6h]
foucault82: bets 77248 and is all-in
MrSweets28: folds
Uncalled bet (77248) returned to foucault82
foucault82 collected 77000 from pot
foucault82: doesn’t show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 77000 | Rake 0
Board [6c 5c 3s 2d 6h]
Seat 1: MrSweets28 folded on the River
Seat 2: twirlpro folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 3: ThePateychuk (button) folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 4: flavioreis88 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: dlanger610 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: foucault82 collected (77000)
Seat 7: gremistaAK folded on the Flop
Seat 8: abarone68 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)

Bloch discussed Full Tilt Poker and Black Friday at length with Diamond Flush Poker. We discussed the subject, and The Lederer Files, with Matt Parvis on Episode 7.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
11:48 – Strategy
34:40 – Andy Bloch

Our first interview with Clayton was Episode 74. We discussed his 96th place finish in the 2015 Main Event on Episode 145. And in 2017, we talked about how he prepares for the WSOP on Episode 216.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
25:25 – strat

Strategy

Sorry, you’re on your own. I’m on vacation!

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
3:47 Strategy
21:46 Helen Ellis

Strategy

1/2 NL

Villain straddles, I raise AdQd to $16 from MP and get 2 callers, Villain raises to $40.

I look at his stack and see what looks like $60ish in red with a $100 bill. I call, other two fold.

Flop AsKc6s (pot $112)

Checks to me and I bet $70. He raises all in and I learn he has two hundred dollar bills and it’s $140 more to me…

Part One is now live, and the rest should be going up over the course of the next week or so.

If you’re not yet a Tournament Poker Edge member, let this be your impetus to sign up!

My interview with Christian Soto provided all of that at a critical moment, coming just hours after one of the more frustrating poker experiences of the year. By chance, we’d been seated next to each other late on Day 2 of the WPT Main Event at Maryland Live! After crushing for much of the day, I made a critical mistake and lost more than I should have with AK vs AA, which resulted in a smaller cash than I’d anticipated. Talking through and laughing about the day’s events with Christian was great fun and great medicine, and judging from the audience response, it seems to have made for a great listen as well.

Happy new year everyone! Thanks for spending some of 2017 with us, and we look forward to sharing more great poker stories with you in the year to come.

Run It Once Thread

Support the Bay Area Urban Debate League!

Timestamps

0:30 – hello and welcome
7:57 – strategy
29:36 – guest

Strategy

$1/$2 NL Hero opens to $12 with Th Td in the HJ, BN calls.

Jd Jh 5c. Both check.

6d. Hero bets $15, Villain calls.

7h. Hero bets $15, Villain raises to $65, Hero?

The great thing about this kind of review is that the hand examples come from the smaller stakes tournaments that most members play, which provides plenty of opportunity to talk about what does and doesn’t work against those kinds of opponents.

If you’re not already a member, this is a great time to sign up and get access to this plus dozens of my other videos and hundreds more from other instructors!

Oh and do check out the KL Cleeton interview if you haven’t already, it’s one of my favorites from this year!t

To learn more from Christian you can follow @ChristianSoto08 on Twitter and sign up for his I’ll Name This Strategy Later II seminar.

I got off to a good start in it but then lost AK to AK.

In the $215 PKO, I got quite ambitious in an early pot. I’m still not sure what to think of it – it’s so hard to decide how to value accumulation vs survival in these events. It doesn’t look great, but I think looking at each decision in a vacuum none seems bad to me.

Initially, I’ve got a pretty good hand and there’s a ton of money in the pot that I’d love to win immediately. I don’t think Villain’s 4-bet is that likely to be light, but it’s not impossible. Plus with all the dead money and the bounty on Villain, getting in AJ vs KK isn’t the end of the world anyway. Losing your chips early in a WCOOP sucks, but running up a big stack in a PKO has a lot more value than in a regular tournament because it enables you to chase bounties.

PokerStars – 150/300 Ante 40 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 139.08 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
MP+1: 115.54 BB (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 12.63, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 96)
MP+2: 185.11 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
CO: 151.38 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
Hero (BTN): 164.16 BB
SB: 137.6 BB (VPIP: 21.01, PFR: 14.03, 3Bet Preflop: 6.37, Hands: 562)
BB: 190.93 BB (VPIP: 21.59, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 88)
UTG: 158.31 BB (VPIP: 26.11, PFR: 15.84, 3Bet Preflop: 15.46, Hands: 204)
UTG+1: 166.27 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has Jd Ac
UTG raises to 2.5 BB, UTG+1 calls 2.5 BB, MP calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 12.59 BB, fold, fold, UTG raises to 34 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 164.03 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 124.18 BB and is all-in

Flop : (326.56 BB, 2 players) 2s 6h 4s

Turn : (326.56 BB, 2 players) Qd

River : (326.56 BB, 2 players) 6c

UTG shows Ks Kc (Two Pair, Kings and Sixes)
(Pre 71%, Flop 87%, Turn 93%)

Hero shows Jd Ac (One Pair, Sixes)
(Pre 29%, Flop 13%, Turn 7%)

UTG wins 326.56 BB

The Sunday Million was frustrating. I kept getting into bad spots with big pairs, where it felt like I didn’t have any great options. This was the worst: https://www.boomplayer.com/25291484_011D353AB9

Frankly, I’m surprised the SB was so light here (though he was Brazilian). Given that I’m essentially 3-betting into a dry sidepot, there’s just not that reason for me to be light, and I don’t think he has that much incentive to randomly 4-bet me. And then the 5-bet from UTG – obviously it’s hard to like the fold once i know the results, but in general my rule is to trust my gut when it tells me to hero fold, because that’s not usually what it tells me to do.

It probably didn’t help that I’d already been in a few spots where I at least suspected that I’d been coolered, including this one where I ran KK into AA: https://www.boomplayer.com/25289125_4ADA91F5DB.

All of that said, I did get two double-ups in spots where that required at least a little above the rim play: https://www.boomplayer.com/25287412_36769CB6FC and https://www.boomplayer.com/25291645_CBB5AA13F0.

In happier news, I made Day 2 of the $109 WCOOP-Low!

Wednesday did not get off to a great start in the $500. Pretty early on, I lost this gem:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 142.61 BB (VPIP: 24.49, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 49)
MP+2: 130.55 BB (VPIP: 27.19, PFR: 15.18, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 114)
CO: 126.32 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 19.73, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 154)
BTN: 130.29 BB (VPIP: 19.65, PFR: 13.86, 3Bet Preflop: 4.79, Hands: 343)
SB: 97.6 BB (VPIP: 22.38, PFR: 16.79, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 143)
BB: 116.88 BB (VPIP: 17.28, PFR: 12.45, 3Bet Preflop: 6.87, Hands: 273)
UTG: 127.12 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 16.19, 3Bet Preflop: 8.20, Hands: 184)
UTG+1: 172.18 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (MP): 77.76 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9c Tc
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (8.46 BB, 3 players) 8c Qs Jh
BB checks, Hero checks, MP+2 bets 4.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 4.5 BB

Turn : (17.46 BB, 2 players) 5c
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 8.73 BB, Hero raises to 22.22 BB, MP+2 calls 13.49 BB

River : (61.9 BB, 2 players) 2c
Hero bets 48.63 BB and is all-in, MP+2 calls 48.63 BB

Hero shows 9c Tc (Flush, Ten High)
(Pre 34%, Flop 92%, Turn 84%)

MP+2 shows Kc Jc (Flush, King High)
(Pre 66%, Flop 8%, Turn 16%)

MP+2 wins 159.17 BB

The Zoom 6-Max was going better, for a while. It’s a fun format, over as quickly as a turbo but the Zoom structure means you get more hands per level than you would in a turbo (though it still isn’t as deep as a normal WCOOP). I actually gave some thought to folding this river, as I really couldn’t figure out what he would 3-bet-call from the SB that I could beat. Finally I decided it could be a strangely played AK, and thankfully it was!

PokerStars – 400/800 Ante 100 NL FAST (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 58.23 BB (VPIP: 25.76, PFR: 16.92, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 68)
SB: 70.2 BB (VPIP: 25.33, PFR: 18.31, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 75)
Hero (BB): 105.34 BB
UTG: 47.54 BB (VPIP: 19.46, PFR: 17.19, 3Bet Preflop: 10.11, Hands: 2,416)
MP: 64.6 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 133)
CO: 77.86 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has Jc Jd
fold, fold, CO raises to 2.2 BB, BTN calls 2.2 BB, SB raises to 7 BB, Hero raises to 20.83 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 13.83 BB

Flop : (46.81 BB, 2 players) Td 2s 4c
SB checks, Hero bets 11.11 BB, SB calls 11.11 BB

Turn : (69.03 BB, 2 players) Tc
SB checks, Hero checks

River : (69.03 BB, 2 players) 8h
SB bets 38.13 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 38.13 BB

SB shows Kh Ac (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 43%, Flop 26%, Turn 14%)

Hero shows Jc Jd (Two Pair, Jacks and Tens)
(Pre 57%, Flop 74%, Turn 86%)

Hero wins 145.29 BB

Karma caught up to me though, as I eventually got in JJ vs AK pre-flop and lost.

Here’s an interesting one from the $215. I don’t love check-raising bottom two when this deep on a board like this one, because although you benefit a bit from protection you aren’t generally going to end up with a hand that you want to play for four bets. Case in point: by the time we see the river, I’m at the bottom of my range and ready to turn my hand into a bluff, mostly to get Villain off of a Q though perhaps also AA or AJ.

PokerStars – 150/300 Ante 40 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 168.05 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 32)
MP+1: 148.96 BB (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 27)
MP+2: 171.63 BB (VPIP: 21.18, PFR: 13.58, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 86)
CO: 175.34 BB (VPIP: 21.15, PFR: 14.49, 3Bet Preflop: 4.59, Hands: 491)
BTN: 157.53 BB (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 2.78, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
SB: 140.37 BB (VPIP: 45.85, PFR: 34.51, 3Bet Preflop: 11.24, Hands: 233)
Hero (BB): 114.67 BB
UTG: 201.03 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 14)
UTG+1: 170.1 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has 8s Jh
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop : (6.7 BB, 2 players) Jd Kd 8h
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

Turn : (12.7 BB, 2 players) Kh
Hero checks, MP+2 checks

River : (12.7 BB, 2 players) Qd
Hero bets 8.38 BB, fold

Hero wins 12.7 BB

This was a gross one from the $530:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 107.42 BB (VPIP: 19.17, PFR: 14.39, 3Bet Preflop: 7.03, Hands: 433)
MP: 92.68 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
MP+1: 171.23 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 48)
MP+2: 86.44 BB (VPIP: 18.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 50)
Hero (CO): 193.65 BB
BTN: 119.7 BB (VPIP: 21.59, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 7.45, Hands: 227)
SB: 119.16 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BB: 121.14 BB (VPIP: 26.85, PFR: 20.56, 3Bet Preflop: 6.10, Hands: 217)
UTG: 163.31 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Jh Js
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2.19 BB, Hero raises to 6.45 BB, BTN raises to 15 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 8.55 BB

Flop : (34.81 BB, 2 players) 4s 9d 8d
Hero checks, BTN bets 10.7 BB, Hero calls 10.7 BB

Turn : (56.21 BB, 2 players) Kd
Hero checks, BTN checks

River : (56.21 BB, 2 players) Jc
Hero bets 167.83 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 93.88 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Jh Js (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 68%, Flop 53%, Turn 0%)

BTN shows Td Ad (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 32%, Flop 47%, Turn 100%)

BTN wins 243.97 BB

I can’t fault Villain’s play, it’s just a great spot for him to pressure me pre-flop. It’s possible I’m just supposed to raise again pre-flop; I certainly considered it, but the money behind seemed awkward. I haven’t run in CREV yet but I feel good about the river shove. I doubt Villain will have enough flushes and KK to be able to fold a lot of his AK/AA.

And in a throwback to one of my earliest poker strategy articles, here I am bluffing a calling station:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 108.05 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 14.52, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 429)
SB: 116.52 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BB: 175.63 BB (VPIP: 22.73, PFR: 6.82, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 44)
UTG: 89.82 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 46)
Hero (UTG+1): 176.1 BB
MP: 115.08 BB (VPIP: 21.97, PFR: 13.89, 3Bet Preflop: 7.61, Hands: 223)
MP+1: 122.04 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP+2: 121.76 BB (VPIP: 27.36, PFR: 20.95, 3Bet Preflop: 6.17, Hands: 213)
CO: 149.74 BB (VPIP: 29.55, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9c Tc
fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 1.78 BB, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (7.96 BB, 3 players) 8s 2s Jd
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 5.26 BB, SB calls 5.26 BB, fold

Turn : (18.48 BB, 2 players) 6s
SB checks, Hero bets 9.24 BB, SB calls 9.24 BB

River : (36.96 BB, 2 players) 4s
SB checks, Hero bets 18.48 BB, fold

Hero wins 36.96 BB

The day off (it wasn’t a proper day off, as I did do some studying, but no playing) was nice. Emily and I had brunch at a cafe in the nearby town of Val-David. When we ordered, the server was friendly and patient with my limited French. I commented to Emily that she seemed to understand that my French was poor and be helping me along with simple words and phrasing, which I prefer to the approach more common in Montreal where people just start speaking English. It seems like out in the mountains many people still have learned English but are far less comfortable with it.

Anyway, just to prove me wrong, within minutes of my saying that the server returned to the table and said something long and complicated very quickly. I told her, “Sorry, my French is not great”, by which I meant only that I needed her to rephrase and speak more slowly, but she responded with, “Ah, OK, I am not so good in English but I will try.” And then she apologized that she’d forgotten to put our order in and it would still be a little while. Of course we were understanding, but probably she was nervous which was why she’d started speaking quickly.

Elsewhere, people were somewhat less friendly about it. I went with Emily to help her get a season pass for the regional park, and was prepared to conduct the entire transaction in broken French, translating for Emily when necessary. The woman switched to English when she saw me doing that, but she was kind of grudging about it, and made a comment at some point that, “It’s very hard for me, in English.” Which, again, I didn’t have any expectation that she speak English, only that she be patient with my French.

The grocery store is where I’m at my most comfortable, partly because not much speaking is required but also because I’ve got my routine down. Yes, I need a sac plastique. No, I don’t have a carte Métro. I’m sure it’s obvious that I’m not a fluent speaker, but it’s a perfectly fluid transaction. So after doing all of that in French, the woman looks at me over the rim of her glasses and says, “Thank you” in English like she’s caught me in some dirty secret.

There’s a nice bike path that runs through town called “Le P’tit Train Du Nord”, built on what used to be a railway. It’s very well maintained and quite popular in the summer. We got a few smiles while out on the trail but it was surprising how many people would pointedly avoid eye contact or even just stare without smiling when you gave them a little wave or head nod. So maybe it wasn’t the English, maybe the Quebecois just aren’t a friendly people (that would certainly accord with stereotypes I’ve encountered in the States).

Anyway, poker…

PokerStars has gotten a lot of criticism since Amaya took over (including from Talal Shakerchi). I think much of it is well-deserved and they are mostly full of shit when they try to sell changes that are obviously designed to increase rake as being “good for the game”. That said, their shift towards Progressive Knock-Out Tournaments does seem to be good for the game (if also good for Stars’ bottom line). These events routinely get way bigger fields than comparable Freezeouts at the same buy-in level. And at least for now, people play them badly.

I found myself in a rough spot early on, after cold four-betting Kings and getting a nightmare flop:

PokerStars – 300/600 Ante 75 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 88.29 BB (VPIP: 25.32, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 237)
MP: 64.14 BB (VPIP: 23.91, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 92)
MP+1: 75.05 BB (VPIP: 20.87, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 207)
MP+2: 74.09 BB (VPIP: 20.65, PFR: 15.22, 3Bet Preflop: 6.82, Hands: 92)
CO: 86.02 BB (VPIP: 21.59, PFR: 14.77, 3Bet Preflop: 9.30, Hands: 88)
BTN: 85.29 BB (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 4.88, Hands: 92)
SB: 90.07 BB (VPIP: 20.52, PFR: 14.66, 3Bet Preflop: 7.43, Hands: 888)
Hero (BB): 78.3 BB
UTG: 109.01 BB (VPIP: 16.16, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 99)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Kh Kd
fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 5.94 BB, fold, Hero raises to 18.52 BB, fold, BTN calls 12.57 BB

Flop : (40.66 BB, 2 players) Jc Qh 5s
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn : (40.66 BB, 2 players) Qd
Hero bets 12.2 BB, BTN calls 12.2 BB

River : (65.06 BB, 2 players) 8d
Hero checks, BTN bets 54.45 BB and is all-in, fold

BTN wins 65.06 BB

I may have overreacted to seeing a Q and a J on the flop, because CREV still thinks I should get the money in (a result that is, admittedly, sensitive to the assumption that Villain has a lot of AK in his range). I do, after all, have only a pot and a half in my stack upon seeing the flop. CREV also thinks flop is a mix but mostly a bet. Again, there’s a lot of equity to be denied to AK. It’s important to keep in mind that even with my blockers, there are 8 ways to have AK and only 6 ways for Villain to flop a set (I’m comfortable assuming he never has 55).

The trickiest problem of all is that you can only collect bounties if you have more chips than your opponents, which means that there must be some disjuncture in chip value. To understand this, consider that everyone else has 7,500 chips and you have 7,499. How much would you pay to be able to add a single chip to your stack? I don’t know to put an exact number on that, but considering that that chip would give you a shot at collecting $500 bounties, it must be a good deal more than $0.1133. Losing a single chip, however, would cost you less than that, because that chip would be nowhere near your last.

Let’s consider another hypothetical. At 50/100, you are in the big blind. You and the player on your right both have exactly the 7,500 starting stack. The action folds to the small blind, who moves all in without looking at his cards. Assuming that you are of exactly average skill in this tournament, what should your calling range be?

Please give it a look and let me know what you think!

Timestamps

0:30 Hello and welcome
52:44 Strategy

Links

Gareth Chantler on Twitter
Gareth’s Stories From Syria
Hassan Hassan on Twitter
Iyad El-Baghdadi on Twitter
Samar Yazbek’s A Woman In the Crossfire
Mustafa Khalifa’s The Shell

Strategy

PokerStars – 500/1000 (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (UTG): 8.06 BB
MP: 3.26 BB (VPIP: 27.23, PFR: 15.57, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 213)
CO: 9.48 BB (VPIP: 29.03, PFR: 21.49, 3Bet Preflop: 13.73, Hands: 126)
BTN: 14.55 BB (VPIP: 24.02, PFR: 15.23, 3Bet Preflop: 11.22, Hands: 490)
SB: 24.19 BB (VPIP: 41.38, PFR: 31.25, 3Bet Preflop: 18.87, Hands: 146)
BB: 43.16 BB (VPIP: 34.92, PFR: 24.59, 3Bet Preflop: 26.92, Hands: 64)

SB posts SB 0.25 BB, BB posts BB 0.5 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 0.75 BB) Hero has Kh Td
Hero raises to 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB, Hero calls 0.5 BB

Flop : (4.5 BB, 3 players) Th 3s 6c
SB bets 0.5 BB, BB raises to 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB, SB calls 0.5 BB

Turn : (7.5 BB, 3 players) Ts
SB checks, BB bets 1 BB, Hero ?

We also discuss our recent match against DeepStack. If you missed it, you can hear our (most recent) interview with Michael Bowling of the Computer Poker Research Group and check out a replay of the games we played on Twitch.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
15:57 – patrick

Can it? Join us Wednesday at 5PM Eastern on Twitch to find out as Nate and Andrew battle in real time against DeepStack.

Links

Tournament Poker Edge

DeepStackAI Article in Science

Timestamps

Strategy

From a €500 deep stack tournament in Dublin. Blinds are 150/300/25 and effective stacks are 100-110k.

UTG limps, folds to MP who makes it 700, folds to Hero on the button who 3-bets to 2100 with AQo. UTG 4-bets to 7000. MP folds, Hero calls.

Pot: 15,450
Flop: 9c 7s 2h

UTG bets 6500. Hero calls.

Pot: 28,450
Turn: Qd

UTG bets 11,200. Hero calls.

Pot: 50,850
River: 5s

UTG bets 35,000. Hero?

Links

Tournament Poker Edge

NYC Live Event with Just Hands Poker

DeepStackAI Article in Science

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
13:08 – strat
45:14 – nikolai

Strategy

Hand 1

60/120 Limit Hold ‘Em

Button raises, Hero 3-bets ATo in SB, BN 4-bets, Hero calls.

Flop (4.5 BBs) T42r. Check, bet, call.

Turn (5.5 BBs) A. Check, bet, raise, call.

River (7.5 BBs) T. Bet, fold.

Hand 2

$1/$3 NLHE, $390 effective stacks.

Utg+1 calls, MP raises to 13, Hero raise to 35 with QQ on btn, folds back to MP who calls. 

Flop ($77) Qh 9h 6c. Check, Hero bets $40, call.

Turn ($157) Jh. Check, Hero bets $80, Villain raises to $200, Hero calls

River ($557) Qh 9h 6c Jh 2h. Villain jams $150, Hero folds.

Links

Tournament Poker Edge

NYC Live Event with Just Hands Poker

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
6:50 – Strategy: Top-Top in a Straddled Pot
40:38 – Interview: Ronnie Bardah

Strategy

$2/$5 NLHE, $500 effective stacks.

UTG straddles for $15, UTG2 raises to $45, Hero calls Ad Kc on the button, both blinds call, and the straddle folds.

Flop ($179) As 4c 4s. Villain bets $80, Hero calls, blinds fold.

Turn ($339) 8c. Villain bets $150, Hero calls.

River ($639) 8s. Villain shoves $130, Hero calls.

“You are UTG+1 in a nine-handed $5/$10 game in which all players have $2,000 stacks. The UTG player opens to $40. Consider your action with each of the following hands: AA, AKo, AQs, KQo, JTs, 65s.”

Of course, I go on to help you consider your action, using the theoretical framework from the previous article. Hope you’ll find it useful!

Strategy this week comes to us from Nate’s recent play in a Foxwoods $1K!

Links

Coaching Carlos

Tournament Poker Edge

NYC Live Event with Just Hands Poker

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
11:38 – Strategy From Nate at Foxwoods
41:41 – Interview: Angela Bassa

Strategy

Hand 1

Blinds 150/300/25. Effective stacks 30K.

Hero limps QQ UTG, UTG1 raises to 1200, UTG2 calls BB raises it 3800, Hero calls, UTG1 folds, UTG2 calls.

Flop J97tt. BB bets 7K, Hero?

Hand 2

Blinds 600/1200/200. Effective stack 72K.

Villain opens HJ to 2800, Hero calls JTo on CO, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop (11K) 9h 5c 2h. Check, check, Hero bets 5300, folds back to HJ who calls.

Turn (22.5K) 8s. HJ checks, Hero?

The first half of my conversation with Matt is available here.

When you three-bet, you’re gearing up to play a big pot, so you ought to come strapped. That doesn’t have to mean Aces, but it should mean a hand with a reasonable chance of winning the pot if you go to the flop. In most cases, the stronger your hand, the higher the Expected Value (EV) of your three-bet will be.

It does not follow from this that you should therefore three-bet a strictly linear range, starting from Aces and working your way down. The complication is that many hands that will have a high EV when they three-bet will also have a high EV when they call. Your job is to decide, when you have a reasonably good hand, whether it will play better as a three-bet or a call in this particular situation.

How do you decide when to three-bet? Was this article helpful to you?

We created this video as part of a year-end fundraising campaign for the Bay Area Urban Debate League.  To unlock more videos like this one and get a shot at some great prizes, please donate to the campaign now!

My Day 1A table draw was quite tough, I think, given the field. Not a lot went right for me, and I busted just a few hours in.

Day 1B went much better. My starting table was amazing, I was playing six-handed with five pretty weak players and a stack that was in play from the start of the tournament and whose owner never showed up to claim it. By the end of the day, it was blinded off, contributing probably $500 in equity to me!

Despite getting into a number of good spots, I didn’t come out ahead after the first two hours of play. It was only after two better players showed up at the table that I claimed a few big pots.

I didn’t recognize the player who landed on my immediate left, but he fit the stereotype of a twenty-something grinder. He was kind of reserved and aloof and played as though he thought he everyone else was clueless (which, to be fair, several of the others basically were). This also resulted, however, in him doing some extremely exploitable things against me that cost him two large pots.

In the first, blinds are 100/200, effective stacks 40K, and the BB is the dead stack. UTG is a really obviously amateurish player who fumbles his chips and tries to raise to 300 but has to make it 400 and is blatantly not too strong here. However, I also know that this guy doesn’t like to fold to 3-bets and will even make some wild 4-bets, so I’d rather just call him with my T9dd. Problem is I’ve got this kid on my left who I’m pretty sure is going to 3-bet if I just call. So I figure fine, let him do it, we’ll play poker, and I call. Sure enough the kids makes it 2000, UTG calls, and so do I.

Flop is K32 with one diamond. We check to the kid who bets 3000, UTG folds, and I call. I can’t rep any strong hands yet, as I wouldn’t check-raise if I had a monster, but I still don’t think he has anything, and I’m going to find a bluff somewhere if I don’t pair up.

Turn is a 5, which is great because now I can bet into him, which is what I’d actually want to do with a lot of strong hands to keep from taking a free card with Ax. I bet 4000, and he quickly raises to 12K which is just extremely implausible. I mean, I don’t think he’s playing Kx this way, so either he has two-pair or better (even then I’d expect more of an act) or he’s full of it.

Still, it wasn’t easy to force myself to move in for 35K here. I didn’t relish sticking in 200 BBs with T-high no draw, but I really had a lot of confidence that this was going to work. He tanked for a while, during which I had more trouble than usual keeping a good poker face because I kept thinking about how stupid I was going to feel if he called. He eventually, folded, though, after which I felt like a genius.

A while later, at 300/600, there was now another good player at the table, and he opened to 1500 from UTG2. I just called with JJ in the SB, and kid from before raised to 5500 from the BB. This time I was sure he was strong. He wasn’t going out of his way to pick fights with the two best players at the table, especially when he had the option of just calling and seeing a cheap flop. Still, I wasn’t going to fold Jacks, so I called.

The flop came 983ss. I checked, he bet 7K (half the pot), and I called. The turn was a 5, I checked, and he bet 14K, leaving about 60K behind. There was some chance he was barreling AK, but that seemed unlikely, and he definitely didn’t have worse for value. In all likelihood, Jacks were no good. However, I also didn’t think he would have re-raised any smaller pairs or suited connectors when he could so easily call them, so really he couldn’t have better than one pair, while I had lots of sets, two-pairs, and straights in my range. This actually makes it a pretty bad idea for him to bet the turn, unless he just assumes I’m not capable of bluff raising him, because opening himself up to a bluff raise is a disaster. So, I went for it. Again, he tanked a long time, and this time he folded QQ face up!

I came into Day 2 with about twice the average in chips, but with 40% of the field remaining, we were still a ways from the money. A few hours later, my table broke, and I still had roughly the chips with which I’d started the day.

With blinds of 1500/3000/500, a player in middle position opened to 6500. I raised to 16500 with QQ on the button, and he pretty quickly ripped it in for 140K. I wasn’t thrilled, but I called it off with QQ and lost to AA, busting in about 100th place, with 63 paying. I’m not sure it was a good call – Nate and I discuss it a bit on the upcoming podcast.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
10:42 NLO8 Strategy

Hand 1

PokerStars – $300+$20|400/800 Ante 100 NL Hi/Lo (6 max) – Omaha Hi/Lo – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 24.38 BB
BB: 41.66 BB
UTG: 35.74 BB
MP: 48 BB
Hero (CO): 23.1 BB
BTN: 30.23 BB

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has 4c Kc As Ts
fold, MP raises to 2.19 BB, Hero calls 2.19 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.19 BB

Flop : (7.81 BB, 3 players) 3c 8h 6c
BB bets 3.9 BB, MP calls 3.9 BB, fold

Turn : (15.61 BB, 2 players) Jh
BB checks, MP bets 9 BB, BB calls 9 BB

River : (33.61 BB, 2 players) 4h
BB checks, MP bets 32.79 BB and is all-in, BB calls 26.45 BB and is all-in

MP shows Js Kh Ah 2s (High: Flush, Ace High, Low: 6432A)
(Pre 60%, Flop 36%, Turn 69%)

BB shows 2h 3s Ad 7c (High: One Pair, Threes, Low: 6432A)
(Pre 40%, Flop 64%, Turn 31%)

BB wins 21.63 BB
MP wins 64.88 BB

Hand 2

PokerStars – $300+$20|400/800 Ante 100 NL Hi/Lo (6 max) – Omaha Hi/Lo – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 25 BB
CO: 42.04 BB
BTN: 32.37 BB
SB: 34 BB
Hero (BB): 37.72 BB

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.13 BB) Hero has 4s 6c Tc 3s
fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 2.38 BB, Hero calls 1.38 BB

Flop : (5.38 BB, 2 players) Ts 7c 6s
SB bets 3.25 BB, Hero calls 3.25 BB

Turn : (11.88 BB, 2 players) 9s
SB checks, Hero bets 3.56 BB, SB raises to 8.13 BB, Hero calls 4.56 BB

River : (28.13 BB, 2 players) 9h
SB bets 20.12 BB and is all-in, fold

SB wins 28.13 BB

You can visit Chris Moorman’s website and follow him on Twitter.

Timestamps

0:30 hello & strategy
22:44 chris moorman

Strategy

2/5 table at the rio. I’m in the sb with AsQc. UTG limps for 5, UTG +1 raises to 15. Folds around to a pretty tight player on the button who makes it $45. I call, the limper calls, and UTG +1 calls.

Flop ($180): Ah9s8h

I bet $135. The UTG limper folds and the UTG +1 ships it all in pretty quickly so it’s $455 total – $320 more. Button folds….

Timestamps

Timestamps

0:30 hello and welcome
5:45 strategy
46:24 christian

Strategy

$5/10 at Bellagio

Pre-flop:
UTG+1 raised to $15 (sic). I was hijack $800 stack holding AcQs. I called. Cutoff $2500 stack called. Button $1500 stack called. Small blind folded. Big blind $7000 stack called.

4 callers $75 pot

Flop:
AsKsQx
Checked to me, I bet $50. Villain called. Big blind called. Original raiser folded.

$225 pot

Turn: 7x
big blind checked, I bet $150, villain called and big blind folded.

$525 pot

River Tx:
I checked. Villain shoved.

Q: I’ve often wondered how best to consider stack size when confronted by 3 or 4 bets. I have a vague sense it is about trying to get value out of my strong hands, narrow ranges and lower my SPR, but I’d be lying if I knew enough to not feel a little lost here.

For example, …
– I have AKs and open 2.2BB
– V 3-bets to 7BB
– I ?…with 20BB effective vs 80BB vs 200BB…?
At 20BB I’m jaming.
At 80BB am I just calling or 4-betting? Wouldn’t a 4-bet be folding out hands I want in, like AQs?
At 200BB do I add some/more 4-bets? If so, can I ever fold to a reasonable 5-bet?
What about holding KK facing a 5-bet with 200BB effective.
What about QQ…the absence of a K blocker and the presence of a Q blocker makes it more likely we are flipping or behind an average 4-bet calling/raising range? If that is true, do we 3-bet/jam 20BB but 3-bet/call 200BB (just as another example of my question).

I realize this is a pretty wide question and assuming no read on V, and may even be stylistic to some extent, but any feedback would be quite welcome.

A: You’re on the right track with your thinking, but you left out a critical detail from your original question: position. The only reason anyone plays any hand other than Aces is that there is money in the pot pre-flop. The fewer people there are still to act behind me, the more hands I can (and therefore should) profitably open raise.

Once someone raises in front of me, I have a new dilemma: there is more money in the pot, but there is also someone who is claiming to have a strong hand. However, I know that, like me, he has some incentive to raise even without the nuts, which is why I probably don’t have to have the nuts to re-raise him.

When you have a hand that you believe to be ahead of the original raiser’s opening range, you have to make a decision: do I call, 3-bet, or even fold? You need to estimate the expected value of each and choose the option with the highest EV. When considering a 3-bet, this basically means answering four questions:

1. How often will my opponent fold, and how much do I have to gain from those folds? Hands like AK and JJ benefit more from fold equity than KK or AA do, even though you may not be raising them “as a bluff” (in other words, you may also expect to be ahead of a calling or even 4-betting range).

2. How often will my opponent call, and what can I expect that call to be worth? This is a function of your equity vs a likely calling range as well as how well your hand will play after the flop (if your 3-bet is not all in).

3. How often will my opponent 4-bet, and how will I fare against a 4-betting range? Especially when a 4-bet isn’t likely, it’s OK to 3-bet a hand for value even though you will fold to a 4-bet.

4. How does the EV of calling compare to the EV of 3-betting (which is determined by the above three questions)?

We don’t need to inquire about the EV of folding, as it’s always 0. So generally, if calling or 3-betting has positive EV, we can rule out folding, though there are tournament situations where cEV and $EV deviate significantly.

Of course in many cases you don’t know exactly how your opponent will respond and so can’t put exact numbers on these things. However, you should recognize that there’s a relationship between them. If you opponent opens from the CO and you have AK on the button, you are probably far enough ahead of his opening range that he will either fold very often or call/4-bet a range that AK is well ahead of. Either way, you win. The one thing that can’t happen is for your opponent to rarely fold and also reliably have AK smoked. It’s hard to get dealt a hand that strong, especially when an A and a K are accounted for, and your opponent has incentive to raise a wide enough range from the CO.

It is possible that your opponent doesn’t properly understand or respond to his incentive to attack the blinds and is a huge nit when it comes to raising the CO. If you knew that, you might prefer not to 3-bet him with AK.

However, if you do unwittingly 3-bet the nit with AK, that doesn’t mean that his nitty strategy is exploiting you. For one thing, the mere fact that he is raising suggests he is not a nit (nits raise less often than other players). But even if he is, you are passively benefiting from many situations where you would have had to fold your button if he’d raised his CO, but because he made overly tight folds from the CO, you got to make a +EV raise on your button. Basically, all those folding mistakes he makes from the CO overwhelm whatever he gains by getting lucky enough to “trap” you when he has AA in the CO and you have AK on the button.

If you’re interested in examining these spots in greater depth and getting a sense of what balanced opening, 3-betting, 4-betting, etc. ranges look like, Hold ‘Em Resources Calculator is a very good tool for the job.

Timestamps

0:30 hello and welcome
11:30 strategy

Strategy

Hand 1

2/5 game at the Aria. I have a stack of about 1400. Villain covers.

Villain raises from UTG+1 to 20, gets two callers. I have pocket aces in the BB. I raise to 85. Villain calls, callers fold.

Pot is now about $205. Flop 345 rainbow. Both players check.

Turn 2. I check, Villain bets $150, I call.

Pot is $505. River Q. I check, Villain bets $330.

Hand 2

$2/$5 live game. Villain has $500, Hero coves. Hero raises to $25 with AQss. Tilted guy re raises to $100. Hero calls.

Flop is Q74 two diamonds.  There is $200 in the pot and he leads out for a pot sized $200 bet. Hero calls.

Turn is 7h. Villain shoves $200, Hero calls.

Contrary to the fancy image seen here, The Thinking Poker Diaries Volume 8 is actually available only as an e-book. It’s on sale now in the Kindle Store, and EPUB, Kindle, and PDF versions will be available on Nitcast.com shortly.

If you haven’t yet read Volume One, well, there’s no reason you’d have to to make sense of this book, but why haven’t you?!

You can follow Benjamin on Twitter @Reasons14 and watch his instructional videos at Tournament Poker Edge. He recommends reading Sapiens and The Four Hour Work Week and listening to Sigur Rós, Denali, Portishead, Red Hot Chili Peppers, and Radiohead.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello and welcome
4:33 – PLO8 strategy
28:12 – benjamin reason

Strategy

Three-handed $10/$25/$50 PLO8.

Villain raises from the SB to $175 announcing that he “almost never does this”. I pause, question him, and he states that he raised blind. I don’t know him well enough to know if this is always the truth.

I raise to 550 with A2QQshhd. Button folds and villain makes it 1650.

I called and the flop was K85 rainbow. He quickly bets the pot of $3350 leaving $7000 effective behind.

Collin is also the author or co-author of three poker books (Heads-Up No-Limit Hold ‘Em, Sit-and-Go Strategy, and The Math of Hold ‘Em) as well as co-author, with his wife Katie Dozier, of The Superuser. He produces instructional videos for CardRunners. You can follow him on Twitter @teammoshman.

We’ve also got a special treat for you in the strategy segment. Brian Koppelman, whom we interviewed on Episode 149, is back to talk strategy, specifically how to play against a deep-stacked maniac.

Enjoy!

Timestamps

0:30 H&W
23:58 – BK
39:22 – CM

I primarily review his play at the final three tables of a $10 rebuy tournament, all the way down to heads up. If you need help making or triumphing at a final table – and who doesn’t?! – be sure to take advantage of this FREE video. Or better yet, see how you can have me review one of your hand histories!

Timestamps
0:30 – hello & welcome
4:48 – strategy
30:28 – TJ

Reading List

The 2+2 Thread That Started It All

Managing Oneself by Peter Drucker

The One Thing by Gary Keller

The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler

Elements of Poker by Tommy Angelo

Thinking Tournament Poker by Nate Meyvis & Friends

Please contribute here!

Thanks to everyone who’s donated already, you’ve far exceeded what I thought we were likely to raise. As a result, it’s been tough to keep pace with releasing all the free strategy videos I promised. Thankfully Nate came through in a pinch and gave me permission to use some videos we’d previously recorded. So here’s the first of a three-part series in which we have fun reviewing my play in a PLO8 WCOOP event. Enjoy, and happy new year!

// ]]>

The book is available from the Amazon Kindle Store or in EPUB, Kindle, and PDF formats at Nitcast.com.

Timestamps

:30 – hello & welcome
5:06 – strategy: getting paid with quads
34:47 – interview: neil blumenfield

Strategy

$1/$3 NLHE $800 effective stacks

Villain opens to $15 from utg +2.
Hero is next to act holding 5c5h and calls the 15.
The button calls the 15 (stack 300 ish)
The limper calls the 15 (stack 150 ish)

flop ($59) is Kd 9d 5d
limper checks, Villain bets 45, Hero calls, everyone else folds.

turn ($149) is the 4c

Villain bets $55 into the now 149. Hero raises to $150 total and villain calls

River ($450) 5s. Villain checks. Hero?

For every $500 raised, I’m releasing a poker strategy video that’s at least an hour long (and knowing me, they’ll be longer – blame debate again for my motormouth!). Plus, every person who donates at least $10 will be entered in a drawing to win great prizes like a free custom video, a free month at Tournament Poker Edge, a free item from Nitcast.com, and more!

We’re over $1500 already, and I’m working to get these videos out as quickly as I can. The first one, where I basically berate Gareth Chantler for 90 minutes about his play in an Ante Up event, is available now!

I was responsible for one of the eliminations that burst the bubble. Blinds were 5K/10K/500, and the small blind open jammed something like 85K into my big blind, where I held 99. I called and busted him to the delight of my tablemates, some of whom also seemed a bit surprised by my call. Although I wasn’t thrilled, mostly because of how tight I thought he might be shoving on the bubble, I did have him covered with enough left to last me more than an orbit, so I was confident I could fold into the money even if I lost. As it turned out, he had Q2s, which of course if he’s jamming that wide it’s a very profitable call.

I picked up another big pot jamming my 20BBs into a 4x open from UTG and a UTG+1 call. Given that it was a ten-handed table, I expected the original raise to show extreme strength, but I’d also seen enough nitty folds to believe that I might actually get him off of some pairs or even another AK. A player in MP took two minutes to fold his hand because he hadn’t realized the action was on him, and yet somehow this still hadn’t given UTG enough time to think because he then tanked for at least two minutes before I called the clock on him. He ended up showing JJ to the player on his right before folding, and UTG+1 folded as well, so I increased my stack by about 50% without a showdown.

A phrase I hear a lot is “I don’t want to flip at this stage of the tournament.” Well, I don’t want to flip either, but I also don’t want to give away 2.5 BB (a rough estimate of my edge assuming I were to get all in with AK vs a pocket pair in the preceding hand) plus fold equity when I’ve only got 20 to begin with. It never ceases to amaze me how many people enter tournaments, the furthest thing from a sure thing poker has to offer, and proceed to demand near-certainty before they’ll take a significant risk. A lot of run good went into my winning this tournament, but the biggest skill edge I had consisted in the willingness to take these risks as well as the wherewithal to exploit opponents who wouldn’t.

The next time I got AK, I was in the BB. A player in MP opened, I jammed, and he ended up calling it off with KJo (he had me well covered, not that that makes it a good call), and I held.

This all goes to show the importance of having a solid theoretical understanding of concepts like expected value and game theory rather than just playing by feel. I can promise you there were plenty of situations where it felt “icky” to stick my stack in with AK or to min-raise as a bluff off of a 17 BB stack, but I was able to override my natural risk aversion because I understood the math well enough to know that these simply had to be profitable moves.

This also kept me from getting frustrated when these moves didn’t work out. For example, the players on my immediate left were making no secret of the fact that they were just waiting for strong hands and were not going to bluff. Consequently, I was min-raising any two if I got the opportunity to open from the button, even when I only had 14 or 15 BBs. Once, the BB called this raise and bet out on an Ace-high flop that missed me entirely. I folded, and he showed me AQ, which, far from tilting me, made me feel even better about my open with 83o, even though it had cost me about 15% of my stack.

It seemed like what most of these guys wanted was just for everyone to get out of the way so they wouldn’t get drawn out on when they had a monster. I was happy to oblige them in exchange for far more than my share of the pots where no one had much of a hand.

Predictably, the nits on my left were eventually replaced with (slightly) better players, and I did open fold T4o on the button and Q2s in the CO when I had a barely 10 BB stack. That same orbit, I picked up A4o with six players to act behind me. My push/fold game is a little rusty but I believe this is a fold at equilibrium. In this case, though, I believed everyone would be tight enough with their calling to make it a good shove, and it got through.

The very next hand I picked up A5s, which again would most likely be an equilibrium fold now that my stack was larger, but which I think was a clear shove given the opponents. I ended up getting called and sucking out on 77, to the shock of much of the table. I distinctly overheard someone mutter “What is he doing?” The general consensus seemed to be that I was simply reckless, which again reflects completely the wrong approach to late game tournament play, especially in an event as top heavy as this one was. Believe it or not, there were people openly sweating $600 prize increases with thousands already locked up and $125K up top. Short effective stacks make aggressive stealing a high variance proposition, but they don’t make it less correct.

I was also the player to burst the final table bubble, calling a 10BB shove from the SB with 22 and beating her QJs. There was once again some shock expressed at this call, which one onlooker described as “Spartan”.

The Final Table

One of the many ways I ran well was with regard to the seat draw at the final table. Contrary to what I reported on Twitter, I entered as the chip leader. The next biggest stack was clear across the table from me, and the best of my opponents, a guy named Stuart who had I think the fourth largest stack, was on my immediate right. There was an accomplished tournament player with a resteal stack on my immediate left, so that kept me in line initially, but other than that things were laid out pretty ideally for me.

We were required to step away from the final table to use phones, and even when I wasn’t involved in the pot I wanted to pay close attention, so I wasn’t able to take notes as I had during the rest of the tournament. Apologies in advance: details going forward will be a bit more spotty.

That said, I don’t think I contested a single pot in the first orbit and a half, so when the action finally folded to me in the CO, I couldn’t resist opening K5o. The aforementioned player on my left moved all in, and I had to fold. I don’t know what I had, but it was a good spot for him to shove almost anything, so I redoubled my resolve not to get too far out of line pre-flop, especially in obvious spots.

The next pot I opened was with As 9c UTG, once we were nine-handed. I got three calls and a Js 8h 3s flop and checked, fully intending to give up. However, the action checked to an amateur on the button who’d been openly bragging about his big laydowns and overbetting and then showing his big hands. He bet 200K, about the half the pot, and I went into the tank.

I have a habit of always considering my options when the action is on me, even when the right play seems automatic. In doing so, it occurred to me that a small check-raise might garner an absurd amount of respect from this player, even though it would be a strange line inconsistent with how I’d play many if any strong hands. I had him covered and there were several shorter stacks out there. My biggest fear, really, was that one of the other players in the pot would sniff out what I was up to and shove. However, I thought that was probably giving them too much credit, and besides they’d have to sweat the button actually waking up with a hand and busting them, whereas my check-raise could risk very little. I made it 450K, and everyone folded. The button gave me a bit of sweat but ultimately told me he was folding JT.

I was already pulling well ahead of the next biggest stack when I opened QTo in early position, mostly because the same amateur player was in the big blind. The other big stack called on the button, and the BB called as well. The flop came JTT and I bet 200K into 500K. I like this sizing in a vacuum, but for expoitive reasons I think 300K would have been better. Anyway, the button called and the BB folded.

The turn was an 8, and with an SPR of roughly 2, I found myself in an awkward spot. I doubted that I could get two more bets out of worse. I hadn’t observed much of this player’s behavior, but in this tournament in general I’d seen a lot of big “protection” bets from marginal hands that just wanted to take the pot down, so I figured I’d give him a chance to do something like that. I checked, he bet 450K, and I put him all in for about three times that. He tanked for a long time and reluctantly folded.

That gave me a commanding chip lead, close to half the chips in play at an eight-handed table. What set me back was a bad beat from the aforementioned amateur the next time he was in the BB. I opened with AJo, a medium stack called in middle position, and the BB, now short stacked, called. The flop came A96 with two diamonds, and he open shoved for about the size of the pot. Of course I called, and to my surprise, MP called as well.

That worried me a bit, but ultimately I just couldn’t see him playing AQ or AK this way pre-flop, nor two-pair or better on the flop. So, I jammed the turn, and after a long tank he folded what he told me was A6. The BB had a flush draw that got there on the river, so that set me back.

To make matters worse, Stuart, by far the toughest of the remaining players, doubled through the same guy by getting it in 77 vs AA and spiking a 7.

On the plus side, this created a new dynamic. I still had him covered, but he was the second largest stack, and given that he was also the second best player, he had a lot of incentive not to tangle with me. I started leaning hard on his BB.

Somewhere in there, I picked up AA in the SB when someone open shoved in front of me, but the board ran out a straight and I chopped with his AQ. The crowd erupted, but I knew enough to treat this as completely irrelevant. I don’t even consider it bad luck. The action would have gone down exactly the same if he’d had AA and I’d had AQ. If you insist on thinking in terms of luck, you can say that I was lucky to cooler him pre-flop and he was lucky to escape with half. You’re looking for excuses to feel sorry for yourself if consider this an unlucky outcome.

Speaking of luck, I busted the player who’d entered the final table second in chips when I opened KJ and got a QT9 flop. I can’t fault him for jamming over my flop bet with an A5s that flopped a flush draw, but I don’t think calling my pre-flop raise with it was such a good idea.

That left the player on my left as one of the shortest remaining stacks, which actually made it tougher for me to put pressure on him, as he had less to lose. I still planned to jam on him pretty aggressively given the opportunity, but I twice got hands so bad that I had to give him walks. The third time it folded to me in the SB, I jammed about 10BBs with J8o and he woke up with AKo to double through me.

Heads Up

Meanwhile, Stuart was busy winning a flip against one of the weakest remaining players plus a couple of medium-sized pots against me, putting the two of us virtually even. Thankfully, I busted the other two remaining players and entered heads up with something like 60% of the chips in play.

A few people suggested a chop both at the start of the final table and when we got to five- and four-handed, but neither Stuart nor I was interested at the time. First place paid about twice second, a difference of nearly $60,000, and I might have considered chopping a portion of that if Stuart had suggested it. That said, I did expect to have a sizable edge, as even many otherwise good players lack heads up experience, so I wasn’t all that eager to chop. I figured I’d let Stuart be the one to bring it up, as that would give me an edge in negotiating, but he never did.

The match was over almost before it began. On the third hand, I three-bet him with AQs, he jammed K2o, and my hand held up.

I have a bit more to say about the aftermath of victory, but this post is plenty long enough already, so I’ll save that for tomorrow.

Follow Clayton on Twitter@claytoncomic and learn more about his upcoming shows from his website. His podcast is Broadway Comedy Club Radio.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello and Welcome
34:44 Main Event Strategy

Strategy

Hand 1

Blinds 800/1600/200 effective stack 80K
Hero opens to 3500 with Qd Jd in 3rd position, Button 3bets to 8500, Hero calls

Flop QT7 with one diamond.
Hero checks, Button bets 9500, Hero calls

Turn Ks. Hero checks, Button bets 11,500 into 40,200, Hero calls.

River 9s. Hero checks, Button shoves

Hand 2

Blinds 100/200 effective stack 30K.

Villain opens to 450, one call, Hero raises to 1300 with Jc 8c on the Button, Villain calls, other player folds.

Flop (3200) Ac Jh 7c. Villain checks, Hero bets 1500, Villain raises to 4000, Hero calls.

Turn (11K) 9d. Villain bets 5000, Hero calls.

Rivers (21,300) 8s. Villain bets 7000 into 21000.

Hand  3

Blinds 1K/2K/300 effective stacks 160K. Villain opens to 4K, Hero has QQ in the SB and raises 11K, V raises to 33K.

Pick up your copy today at www.nitcast.com (you’ll get PDF, EPUB, and Kindle versions) or in the Kindle Store (Kindle version only).

In a recent $5/$10/$20 session, I made quite a few of what might be considered “moves” or “fancy plays”. I called turn and river bets with Ace-high. I floated the flop with bottom pair and bluff-raised the turn. I turned a set into a bluff on the river. I four-bet someone with a 5 in my hand and was prepared to six-bet shove, had my opponent raised back.

Although I got the result I wanted in all but one of these spots, I’m not bragging. These plays were not the result of any “sick reads”. I was not especially in the zone that night, nor was I suffering from Fancy Play Syndrome. In fact, these plays are all part of what I consider ABC poker – the way I play when I don’t have a laser-sharp read on my opponent’s hand or what he’s going to do with it.

It seems to be a common belief that big bluffs and heroic calls require reads or other special justification, such as having a certain image or being stuck. Game theory suggests otherwise.

In this instance, I chose to call, so I’ll outline the case for that, though again this was well covered in the comments section already:

1. Avoid facing a 4-bet that will put Hero in a tough spot (I would shove, but wouldn’t be happy about it)/avoid playing a large pre-flop pot in a tournament without an appreciable edge.

2. Keep dominated hands in Villain’s range.

3. Create some deception about Hero’s hand. Not that flatting AK here is a shocking play, but I think most tournament players 3-bet it most of the time, so there’s some deception value. Also because much of Hero’s flatting range will consist of pocket pairs, Villain will have incentive to get bluffy on A- or K- high boards.

4. Induce a squeeze.

The next decision point is in this post.

UTG is a regular tournament player. I have him at 25/14 over 300 hands, with a 64% continuation bet.

Seat 1: Referee-20- (22689 in chips)
Seat 2: torkolort1 (44682 in chips)
Seat 3: sonmonedas (15776 in chips)
Seat 4: chilenocl (39807 in chips)
Seat 5: Tankanza (18804 in chips)
Seat 6: tRaMp$d0PrAy (57609 in chips)
Seat 7: carpediem200 (17964 in chips)
Seat 8: foucault82 (26611 in chips)
Seat 9: E. Katchalov (17833 in chips)

E. Katchalov: posts small blind 350
Referee-20-: posts big blind 700

Dealt to foucault82 [Kd Ah]
torkolort1: raises 700 to 1400
sonmonedas: folds
chilenocl: folds
Tankanza: folds
tRaMp$d0PrAy: folds
carpediem200: folds

Hero?

This is a relatively common pre-flop spot, but that makes it important to get right. We can safely rule out folding, but what are your thoughts on calling vs raising? Whichever line you choose to take, what other hands would you play the same way?

I’ll post my own thoughts, along with the next decision point, some time in the next few days (depending on how the discussion is coming along and how the WCOOP Main Event goes for me).

Folding is an Opportunity, Not a Cost

Props to those of you who mentioned the relevant toy game from Mathematics of Poker. That was the first thing I thought of when playing this hand, and it was the impetus for my posting it.

For those who aren’t familiar, Chen and Ankenman demonstrate that when you have a big draw against a made hand, it can actually be correct for you to move all-in on the flop, knowing you are behind and have no fold equity, rather than give your opponent the opportunity to blow you off of your equity on blank turns.

The critical difference between that toy game and this hand is that in the toy game, we assume that the made hand knows his opponent is drawing and can play perfectly on the turn. In other words, not only can he force the draw out on blank turns, but he can also correctly check and fold on turns that sharply improve his opponent’s equity. No commenters suggested that Villain might check and fold a 6 or a heart on the turn with any hand that would have called a flop shove, and rightfully so.

There was, however, a lot of talk about how Hero will “have to” fold some turns, as though it were a cost or penalty of some sort. You should see this as an opportunity! In our example, checking back means that Hero will get to benefit from additional information about the hand he’s likely to hold at showdown. Because Villain is not in a position to make similar use of this information, this is an opportunity for the Hero.

The turn card is going to be what it’s going to be. It’s already sitting there on top of the deck, waiting to be dealt. Essentially, you are given the opportunity to peak at that card before you decide whether you want to get all in. Why wouldn’t you do that? Sure, it will be disappointing to see the Ac, but if you are going to see it either way, wouldn’t you prefer to know that it’s coming so that you can avoid putting $300 out there?

Put another way, assume that Villain never folds to a flop shove and will always shove any turn. In this case, shoving flop and calling a shove on any turn are functionally equivalent. The only question is whether Hero can make use of the additional information that the turn brings in order to avoid committing his stack on particularly bad runouts.

Fold Equity

All of that operates under the assumption that Villain never folds the flop. This was my expectation when playing the hand, though I do think that Gavrik makes a very good point (which also has some connection to a discussion in Mathematics of Poker):

Let’s see what happens if we base our play on trying to guess if we have any fold equity or not.

1) We assume we have ~10% fold equity. We are wrong and in reality we have 0% fold equity. We shove, get called and flip for it. We have lost a tiny amount of equity by being wrong.

2) We assume we have 0% fold equity. We are wrong and in reality villain would have folded ~10% of his range. We check back the flop and from there all sorts of bad things can happen – villain can “bluff shove” all the hands he would have folded on the flop, villain can hit a pair on the turn and shove for value, in addition, if villain shoves on a brick turn we are not really getting the right price to call. Seems like a recipe for disaster.

So, a lot depends on how confident you are that you have no fold equity. I was pretty damn confident.

Villain simply has to be strong based on the pre-flop action. If someone re-raises him pre-flop, he’ll be getting well over 2:1 to call. He just can’t make this play with any hand that isn’t ready to get all-in pre-flop, which means he’s functionally jamming $500 into a pot of $150 and an early position raise from a somewhat nitty player. Except that he’s not jamming, he’s deliberately offering his opponents good odds, which if anything only strengthens his range. Also, as Diane points out, the fact that Villain is in the big blind makes an “air squeeze” even less likely, as he could just call $40 more and see a flop.

Some commenters are suggesting that Villain might have KQ or KJ, but I just don’t see that based on the pre-flop action. Even if he did, I think there’s a fair chance he’s shove the flop as opposed to checking and folding. Just as Villain shouldn’t have any hands that will fold pre-flop, I also don’t think he should have any hands that will check-fold this flop. That means that when he does check, it has to be a trap.

I agree with Chris C. that many Villains will just shove AK on the flop, but I actually think it’s a pretty good hand for inducing, as he can’t really expect better to fold. It doesn’t matter, though. Whether or not Villain’s range includes JJ or AQ doesn’t change Hero’s play as long as Villain isn’t folding (and is planning to jam over a small bet, which I also expect to be the case).

The strength of Villain’s pre-flop range is certainly an argument for folding my hand. Against a range of only overpairs, I should fold. With AK in the mix, I have a call. With only a chance of AK being in there, I should probably fold. However, if Villain is going to make mistakes like this on the flop, my call is a little more appealing.

Turn Plan

Hero will need about 30% equity to call a turn shove. Although I think his ranges are too wide, I want to give props to Sean F. for using Pro Poker Tools to graph Hero’s equity across all turns. Here are graphs of Hero’s equity vs AA and vs KK+,AK.

Even against Aces, Hero can call almost 40% of turn cards. That would be any 7, and 8, any 6, and any heart, 18 cards total, 37.5% of the deck. The tricky thing is that Villain has all combinations of AK in his range, Hero should actually call more than twice as many turns, probably folding only on non-heart Aces and Kings. Putting only suited combinations of AK into Villain’s range again makes Hero call only on turns that clearly improve his hand, which was my plan (like Chris C., I’m skeptical that Villain would play AK this way, and don’t want to assign more than a small chance to that).

It’s worth noting that we might even get a check on some bad turns. Both AA and KK might want to check the Ac, for instance, and KK might choose to check Kc. I think shoving would still be a mistake for Hero, but occasionally getting to see a free river when way behind is a pretty nice perk.

Results

I checked. The turn was the 7c, Villain shoved, and I called and caught an 8 on the river to beat his KK. He was not pleased.

The books mentioned on the show are Poetic Meter & Poetic Form, How to Rap, and Decoded. Alex contributed a chapter to Excelling at No-Limit Hold ‘Em.

In this volume, you’ll find essays covering the following topics:

Navigating the Early Stages of a Tournament
Balance
Playing Your Image
Catching Bluffs
(Not) Talking at the Table
The Tournament Mindset

You can buy The Thinking Poker Diaries Volume 5 at www.nitcast.com (you’ll get Kindle, PDF, or EPUB versions) or in Kindle form on Amazon.

You certainly don’t need to have read the earlier volumes to make sense of this one, but if you need to get caught up, the first four books are available as a bundle at a discounted rate!

Nate folded to Queens to two shoves that turned out to be from AK and JJ; the story he’s sticking to is that both players were at the bottoms of their ranges and he would make the same fold again. Then he lost QQ to AA to get pretty short and then lost AQ < 87s if memory serves.

Leo jammed the nut flush draw into a made full house. He claims it was a punt but he’s harder on himself than any poker player I know, so probably it was just a cooler.

Although cashing the Main Event was clearly going to be a very significant notch in his belt, Carlos had the stones to stick his stack in twice near the bubble, once jamming KJ over a raise and once open jamming KK for 15 BBs very close to the money. Thankfully neither was called. Interesting question whether turning the Kings face up and eating a one-round penalty would be the most +EV play, but that’s neither here nor there. Ultimately he was busted after shoving 77 into a raise from a “mangy” Russian woman who slowrolled him with Aces. It was a poetic exit, at least!

Former podcast guest Clayton Fletcher is still in the hunt with nearly 600K chips and a top 10% stack! Follow him on Twitter @claytoncomic.

As for myself, it’s tempting just to tell you I lost with Kings vs Aces and let you assume it was an unavoidable cooler, but the sad truth is that 5-bet jamming the Kings was probably the worst option available to me. Here was the situation:

It was early on Day 2, my stack was slightly above average, and the table was generally pretty decent, though not amazing. There was one really tough player (Jonathan “driverseati” Tamayo) on my immediate left. He’d been flatting a lot of my opens, running and playing well, and generally making life difficult for me.

He opened for 1200 UTG at 250/500/50. UTG2 called. I began the hand with about 58K, and both opponents covered. I made it 4800 with KK, which I think is already a mistake. I don’t mind squeezing Kings (though it isn’t as automatic as it may seem), but think my range should be very narrow here, probably just QQ+ and some big suited Aces, because of how strong both opponents’ ranges are and often I’ll be called and end up playing OOP with a lot of money behind. Neither of these players is very likely at all to 4-bet, so I should use bigger sizing, probably 6K.

Anyway, Jonathan threw out two more orange without much hesitation, making it 11,200, and I’m embarrassed to say that I didn’t think too hard before I shipped my stack.

In retrospect, there’s little doubt that his range for calling a shove will be exactly AA, which means that no matter how light he might be on this 4bet (and to be honest, because of how profitably he can flat call and how quickly he raised, I suspect he isn’t that light to begin with), jamming can’t be better than either calling or 5-betting small and calling it off (the latter only being good if he has a very 4betting range, which again I doubt). Nate pointed out, and I agree, that even folding would be better than jamming.

So… I dunno what else to say. It was an unlucky spot, and I know a lot of people would have gone broke there, and it’s possible I would have lost most or all of my chips even if I’d called, but the more I think about it, the more I think my play was pretty clearly suboptimal.

Maybe next year!

So I bust the PH 200K and at the last minute, a friend from back home hits me up to late reg the Monster. I rush over and get in with 15 mins left in the 200/400 level. I have 16.5K at dinner.

AA to AK takes me to 26K.

Stolen blinds take me to 31K.

99 to KJo shorty shove takes me to 39K.

Last hand of the night, I defend 54s against aggro guy with 20bbs. Flop TT7 with a flush draw for me. I check shove and end the night with 47.5K

Didn’t see many flops at all.

While we were bagging, a guy got excited and says “it’s after midnight, I cannot believe I bagged on my birthday!” At this point, I break my silence for the first time and reveal the fact that I am also a fish on a heater and that we share a birthday. There was a bracelet winner on my right (Greg Ostrander) bragging about how he took down a 3K three years ago for $750K. I cut him off mid sentence all like yadda yadda yadda. It’s my birthday, take my picture and he did.

My own play in the Monster Stack was not so exciting. I had to fold good pairs to bad rivers in a couple of medium sized pots, and that took me down to about 9K. In one of my first hands at a new table, a competent-looking player limped UTG at the 100/200 level. I was UTG2 and chose to limp behind with 99.

I raise here more often than not, and always against a weaker limper, but I think calling is a viable option when a good player has limped UTG. I didn’t want to face a limp-raise, and with so many players behind me, there’s a good chance that at least one player who has position is going to call me anyway, in which case the value of going to the flop in a raised pot is not so high. Limping makes it harder to win the pot, but it also makes the pot less important, conceals my hand, and sometimes gives me the option to limp-raise myself.

Sure enough, another capable-looking player limped the CO, and then a young European on the button raised to 1000. The blinds and the first limper folded, and I think at this point I have an easy shove. I gain a lot from his folds, I won’t be in terrible shape when called, and I don’t particularly want to induce a shove by 3-betting less than all-in. To my surprise, the CO jammed as well, and the button folded. This seemed like an even better outcome for me, because I thought he was more likely to have a smaller pair than a larger one, but he actually had AKo and won the flip.

It was a weird hand, but it did in fact turn into the good spot that I hoped it would.

Edit: Carlos asked me to add a shoutout to PokerJunkey.com for providing him with the Eat Sleep Poker t-shirt he’s wearing in this picture. Yet another milestone in CW’s career: free endorsement SWAG!

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & welcome & happiness & poker
18:19 Strategy

PokerStars – $2000+$100|200/400 Ante 50 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 91.04 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 14)
SB: 79.65 BB (VPIP: 27.91, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 43)
Hero (BB): 29.43 BB
UTG: 20.47 BB (VPIP: 23.89, PFR: 9.82, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 113)
UTG+1: 20.85 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
MP: 29.11 BB (VPIP: 21.03, PFR: 15.98, 3Bet Preflop: 5.75, Hands: 196)
MP+1: 102.62 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
CO: 40.3 BB (VPIP: 27.91, PFR: 18.60, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has 4c 7c
fold, fold, MP raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop : (5.5 BB, 2 players) 3d 5c 6c
Hero checks, MP checks

Turn : (5.5 BB, 2 players) 6d
Hero bets 3.09 BB, MP calls 3.09 BB

River : (11.67 BB, 2 players) 5d
Hero bets 5.84 BB, MP raises to 21 BB, fold

MP wins 23.34 BB

There may be a case for betting bigger than I did on the turn. Villain is generally drawing dead or two two outs, though, so I’m not too concerned about the price I’m laying him. The river is obviously not a great card, but moreso because of how much it strengthens my range than because it’s likely to give Villain the river.

I suspect a lot of people will want t check-call here, but I don’t see any value in that. Villain is too likely to have showdown value that he won’t turn into a bluff. I see my options as bet-fold or check-fold, and given how capped Villain ought to be, I think a thin value bet is best.

Unfortunately he manages to find a raise. It’s awfully hard to see him doing this without a 6, regardless of how improbably it is that he played a 6 this way to the river. I suppose my hand is a reasonable bluff-catcher, but still, I just don’t expect to see a bluff here. Among other things, I expect Villain to put me on a more polarized range than I actually have.

Next up was the $1K Main Event, where I wriggled my way out of at least one dicey spot:

PokerStars – $1000+$50|125/250 Ante 30 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 85.65 BB (VPIP: 22.09, PFR: 15.34, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 164)
MP+1: 67.92 BB (VPIP: 26.84, PFR: 18.42, 3Bet Preflop: 2.70, Hands: 193)
Hero (MP+2): 78.2 BB
CO: 62.44 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 10.81, 3Bet Preflop: 2.60, Hands: 189)
BTN: 53.54 BB (VPIP: 38.39, PFR: 22.32, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 112)
SB: 82.09 BB (VPIP: 21.62, PFR: 12.61, 3Bet Preflop: 9.62, Hands: 112)
BB: 33 BB (VPIP: 16.22, PFR: 10.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 112)
UTG: 51.23 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 13.39, 3Bet Preflop: 2.13, Hands: 112)
UTG+1: 26.18 BB (VPIP: 18.92, PFR: 11.71, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 112)

9 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.58 BB) Hero has Kd Kc
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN raises to 5.28 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 13.33 BB, BTN calls 8.05 BB

Flop : (29.24 BB, 2 players) 7h Ac Qd
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn : (29.24 BB, 2 players) 9d
Hero bets 6.66 BB, fold

Hero wins 29.24 BB

Eventually, though, I lost a pretty big pot in a pretty good spot:

PokerStars – $1000+$50|200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 45.27 BB (VPIP: 23.12, PFR: 14.52, 3Bet Preflop: 6.49, Hands: 187)
SB: 35.65 BB (VPIP: 26.29, PFR: 17.84, 3Bet Preflop: 2.35, Hands: 216)
Hero (BB): 88.34 BB
UTG: 22.05 BB (VPIP: 18.57, PFR: 10.58, 3Bet Preflop: 2.20, Hands: 212)
UTG+1: 76.72 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
MP: 56.37 BB (VPIP: 21.64, PFR: 12.69, 3Bet Preflop: 9.23, Hands: 135)
MP+1: 47.31 BB (VPIP: 17.91, PFR: 11.19, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 135)
MP+2: 23.96 BB (VPIP: 19.26, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 3.28, Hands: 135)
CO: 9.53 BB (VPIP: 17.91, PFR: 11.28, 3Bet Preflop: 6.15, Hands: 135)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has Ah Kc
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.25 BB, fold, Hero raises to 6.67 BB, BTN raises to 14.25 BB, Hero raises to 88.22 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 30.89 BB and is all-in

Flop : (91.91 BB, 2 players) 8c 2s 3s

Turn : (91.91 BB, 2 players) 4s

River : (91.91 BB, 2 players) Jh

Hero shows Ah Kc (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 74%, Flop 81%, Turn 69%)

BTN shows Js Ac (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 26%, Flop 19%, Turn 31%)

BTN wins 91.91 BB

I got my second and final High cash of the SCOOP in the $1K 6-max turbo, though because it was a turbo those were pretty much all uninteresting pre-flop spots.

Thanks to everyone who followed along here, on Twitter, on Twitch, or anywhere else. I’m in Las Vegas now, I’ve actually been here for over 48 hours and am yet to play a single hand of poker. I had dinner with Keone last night, and he, Carlos, and I will be picking Nate up at the airport in a few hours.

At the moment, I’m on way out the door to a Red Chip Poker meet-up. Details on a nitcast meetup will be coming soon. So much to do in Vegas this time of year even without setting foot in a poker room!

Thursday was a $1K Super Knock-Out, though my bounty was collected before I could nab any of my own. This first hand wasn’t a huge pot, but I’m disappointed in myself for calling the river:

PokerStars – $500+$500+$50|15/30 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 210.43 BB (VPIP: 24.75, PFR: 16.75, 3Bet Preflop: 2.11, Hands: 204)
SB: 165.67 BB (VPIP: 6.67, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
BB: 156 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
UTG: 55.37 BB (VPIP: 37.04, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 55)
UTG+1: 237.3 BB (VPIP: 37.25, PFR: 13.73, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 52)
Hero (MP): 137.67 BB
MP+1: 234.8 BB (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 11.36, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 44)
MP+2: 166.67 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
CO: 159.93 BB (VPIP: 22.00, PFR: 14.00, 3Bet Preflop: 12.00, Hands: 50)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Kc Kh
fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop : (7 BB, 2 players) Jh 3d 7c
SB checks, Hero bets 5.23 BB, SB calls 5.23 BB

Turn : (17.47 BB, 2 players) 2s
SB checks, Hero checks

River : (17.47 BB, 2 players) 5h
SB bets 17 BB, Hero calls 17 BB

SB shows 5d 5s (Three of a Kind, Fives)
(Pre 20%, Flop 10%, Turn 5%)

Hero mucks Kc Kh (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 80%, Flop 90%, Turn 95%)

SB wins 51.47 BB

I don’t think Villain is bluffing, and with that sizing, he’s not value betting worse either.

I had a bad feeling about this one, but I think, despite the outcome, I was correct to suppress it as “seeing monsters”:

PokerStars – $500+$500+$50|30/60 Ante 5 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 310.33 BB (VPIP: 27.31, PFR: 16.97, 3Bet Preflop: 2.29, Hands: 285)
MP+2: 14.77 BB (VPIP: 17.71, PFR: 11.46, 3Bet Preflop: 6.52, Hands: 96)
CO: 50.67 BB (VPIP: 14.10, PFR: 8.97, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 79)
BTN: 74.15 BB (VPIP: 21.05, PFR: 14.04, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 57)
SB: 150.58 BB (VPIP: 36.92, PFR: 16.15, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 133)
Hero (BB): 62.23 BB
UTG: 74.27 BB (VPIP: 21.77, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 5.17, Hands: 125)
UTG+1: 140.47 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 12.35, 3Bet Preflop: 7.32, Hands: 82)
MP: 123.92 BB (VPIP: 24.43, PFR: 13.74, 3Bet Preflop: 8.20, Hands: 131)

9 players post ante of 0.08 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has Kd Ks
fold, UTG+1 raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 3 BB, fold, BTN raises to 7.02 BB, SB calls 6.52 BB, Hero raises to 20 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 11.68 BB and is all-in, BTN raises to 74.07 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 42.15 BB and is all-in

Flop : (149.75 BB, 3 players) Tc 9d 8s

Turn : (149.75 BB, 3 players) 5d

River : (149.75 BB, 3 players) 7h

Hero shows Kd Ks (One Pair, Kings)

Main Pot [54.82 BB]: (Pre 18%, Flop 12%, Turn 5%)
Side Pot [94.93 BB]: (Pre 18%, Flop 12%, Turn 5%)

BTN shows Ah As (One Pair, Aces)

Main Pot [54.82 BB]: (Pre 65%, Flop 79%, Turn 5%)
Side Pot [94.93 BB]: (Pre 82%, Flop 88%, Turn 95%)

MP+2 shows 5h 5c (Three of a Kind, Fives)

Main Pot [54.82 BB]: (Pre 17%, Flop 9%, Turn 90%)

MP+2 wins 54.82 BB
BTN wins 94.93 BB

I also Twitched some PLO8 on Thursday, you can find that here.

I’ll be playing all day tomorrow, probably late registering the earliest tournaments by a bit just so I don’t end up with an insanely long day, but hey, it’s the last day of SCOOP, gotta make it count!

Strategy

Hand 1

PokerStars – $1000+$50|30/60 Ante 5 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BB): 104.08 BB
UTG: 15.88 BB (VPIP: 17.20, PFR: 12.09, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 93)
UTG+1: 75.53 BB (VPIP: 23.19, PFR: 14.49, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 70)
MP: 66.27 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 11.43, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 70)
MP+1: 24.83 BB (VPIP: 19.48, PFR: 10.67, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 78)
MP+2: 130.37 BB (VPIP: 23.19, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 70)
CO: 83.53 BB (VPIP: 27.54, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 69)
BTN: 129.33 BB (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 15.94, 3Bet Preflop: 6.45, Hands: 69)
SB: 138.13 BB (VPIP: 38.24, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 68)

9 players post ante of 0.08 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has Kh Th
UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, MP calls 2 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 2 BB, fold, SB calls 1.5 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 6 BB, SB calls 6 BB

Flop : (28.75 BB, 3 players) 2s 6d Ad
SB checks, Hero bets 14.37 BB, fold, SB calls 14.37 BB

Turn : (57.48 BB, 2 players) 4c
SB checks, Hero checks

River : (57.48 BB, 2 players) 9c
SB bets 16 BB, fold

SB wins 57.48 BB

Hand 2

PokerStars – $665+$35|40/80 NL (2 max) – Holdem – 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (SB): 58.33 BB
BB: 66.68 BB (VPIP: 76.81, PFR: 44.93, 3Bet Preflop: 17.65, Hands: 72)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ah Ks
Hero raises to 2 BB, BB raises to 5.5 BB, Hero raises to 12.49 BB, BB calls 6.99 BB

Flop : (24.98 BB, 2 players) 9h 4h 3c
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (24.98 BB, 2 players) 3h
BB bets 15.25 BB, Hero calls 15.25 BB

River : (55.48 BB, 2 players) 6d
BB bets 38.94 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 30.59 BB and is all-in

BB shows 8d 5d (One Pair, Threes)
(Pre 40%, Flop 23%, Turn 9%)

Hero shows Ah Ks (One Pair, Threes)
(Pre 60%, Flop 77%, Turn 91%)

Hero wins 116.65 BB

I took two “gambles” in the $1000, putting the money in with hands I usually would not because of the bounties. The first seemed pretty straight-forward:

PokerStars – $500+$500+$50|50/100 Ante 10 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 151.59 BB (VPIP: 27.03, PFR: 18.92, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 37)
Hero (BB): 114.91 BB
UTG: 46.2 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
UTG+1: 23.84 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 9.68, Hands: 70)
MP: 184.24 BB (VPIP: 27.88, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 8.75, Hands: 165)
MP+1: 51.98 BB (VPIP: 13.58, PFR: 8.64, 3Bet Preflop: 1.33, Hands: 163)
MP+2: 36.25 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
CO: 87.32 BB (VPIP: 27.66, PFR: 16.43, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 141)
BTN: 45.75 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has Td 9d
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 1.5 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, MP+2 raises to 36.15 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 28.15 BB

Flop : (75.2 BB, 2 players) 2h 5d Qc

Turn : (75.2 BB, 2 players) 7s

River : (75.2 BB, 2 players) Qd

Hero shows Td 9d (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 38%, Flop 27%, Turn 14%)

MP+2 shows As Js (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 62%, Flop 73%, Turn 86%)

MP+2 wins 75.2 BB

The real question is whether to squeeze with the intention of calling in the first place. Once he shoves, calling needing just 37% equity even in the absence of the bounty is pretty trivial with a strong suited connector. Flatting pre-flop has some merit, and although I like having a shot at winning the pot immediately, my hand’s equity does hold up well in a multi-way pot, and I can also take a shot at Villain’s stack post-flop (as it happens, though, I may well have been bet off of a good bet of equity if I’d gone to the flop).

After the tournament, I took a walk and began to question this second call in my head. Then I crunched some numbers and it turns out to be a clear call:

PokerStars – $500+$500+$50|75/150 Ante 20 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 110.57 BB (VPIP: 27.06, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 85)
Hero (MP+2): 38.44 BB
CO: 68.59 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
BTN: 46.95 BB (VPIP: 32.20, PFR: 13.56, 3Bet Preflop: 5.45, Hands: 118)
SB: 149.75 BB (VPIP: 28.64, PFR: 13.15, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 213)
BB: 20.25 BB (VPIP: 12.86, PFR: 7.62, 3Bet Preflop: 1.03, Hands: 211)
UTG: 25.03 BB (VPIP: 23.33, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
UTG+1: 58.2 BB (VPIP: 27.13, PFR: 15.51, 3Bet Preflop: 2.35, Hands: 189)
MP: 84.79 BB (VPIP: 32.14, PFR: 23.21, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 56)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has 4d 4s
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, BTN calls 2 BB, fold, BB raises to 20.12 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero raises to 38.31 BB and is all-in, fold

Flop : (45.94 BB, 2 players) 2s Ts Qs

Turn : (45.94 BB, 2 players) Ks

River : (45.94 BB, 2 players) Jc

BTN mucks 7h 7d (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 0%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)

BB shows Ad As (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 82%, Flop 93%, Turn 100%)

Hero shows 4d 4s (Flush, King High)
(Pre 18%, Flop 7%, Turn 0%)

BB wins 45.94 BB

Against {77+,KQs,KQo,ATs+,AJo+} it’s barely a fold even without the bounty. Tightening Villain’s range slightly by removing the KQo and KQs barely changes my equity at all, and pulling out the ATs and AJo makes a bit closer but still a call given the bounty. I really can’t imagine his range being any tighter than that.

Tomorrow is Big Antes at 8AM Pacific and then 6Max Shootout at 11AM, the latter of which is another I’m really looking forward to.

I won Round One of the $700 in dramatic fashion:

PokerStars – $665+$35|40/80 NL (2 max) – Holdem – 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (SB): 58.33 BB
BB: 66.68 BB (VPIP: 76.81, PFR: 44.93, 3Bet Preflop: 17.65, Hands: 72)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ah Ks
Hero raises to 2 BB, BB raises to 5.5 BB, Hero raises to 12.49 BB, BB calls 6.99 BB

Flop : (24.98 BB, 2 players) 9h 4h 3c
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (24.98 BB, 2 players) 3h
BB bets 15.25 BB, Hero calls 15.25 BB

River : (55.48 BB, 2 players) 6d
BB bets 38.94 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 30.59 BB and is all-in

BB shows 8d 5d (One Pair, Threes)
(Pre 40%, Flop 23%, Turn 9%)

Hero shows Ah Ks (One Pair, Threes)
(Pre 60%, Flop 77%, Turn 91%)

Hero wins 116.65 BB

Unfortunately in Round 2 I went down to a bad beat and a cooler:

PokerStars – $665+$35|40/80 NL (2 max) – Holdem – 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (SB): 71.3 BB
BB: 53.7 BB (VPIP: 78.26, PFR: 53.62, 3Bet Preflop: 14.71, Hands: 70)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7h 9c
Hero raises to 2 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop : (4 BB, 2 players) Kh 7s 4d
BB checks, Hero bets 2 BB, BB raises to 6.8 BB, Hero calls 4.8 BB

Turn : (17.6 BB, 2 players) 7c
BB bets 10.55 BB, Hero calls 10.55 BB

River : (38.7 BB, 2 players) Js
BB bets 34.35 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 34.35 BB

BB shows 4s 4h (Full House, Fours full of Sevens)
(Pre 51%, Flop 98%, Turn 84%)

Hero shows 7h 9c (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 49%, Flop 2%, Turn 16%)

BB wins 107.4 BB

PokerStars – $665+$35|40/80 NL (2 max) – Holdem – 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (SB): 98.35 BB
BB: 26.65 BB (VPIP: 76.92, PFR: 53.85, 3Bet Preflop: 15.63, Hands: 66)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qc Qh
Hero raises to 2 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop : (4 BB, 2 players) 2c 7s Js
BB checks, Hero bets 2 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Turn : (8 BB, 2 players) Kh
BB checks, Hero bets 6 BB, BB raises to 22.65 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 16.65 BB

River : (53.3 BB, 2 players) 9h

BB shows Tc Qs (Straight, King High)
(Pre 11%, Flop 9%, Turn 18%)

Hero shows Qc Qh (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 89%, Flop 91%, Turn 82%)

BB wins 53.3 BB

I got to take a few minutes off before the rebuy events started. I got off to a good start in the $700, then ran into this spot:

PokerStars – $665+$35|200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 37.5 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 9.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
MP+1: 12.62 BB (VPIP: 21.31, PFR: 21.67, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 61)
MP+2: 13.15 BB (VPIP: 12.77, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
CO: 18.98 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 42)
Hero (BTN): 64.76 BB
SB: 48.04 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
BB: 43.54 BB (VPIP: 26.19, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 42)
UTG: 23.57 BB (VPIP: 18.52, PFR: 12.77, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 189)
UTG+1: 14.23 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 42)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has Ad Qc
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB raises to 5.95 BB, fold, Hero raises to 13.89 BB, SB raises to 47.92 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 34.03 BB

Flop : (97.96 BB, 2 players) 6h 9d Tc

Turn : (97.96 BB, 2 players) Kh

River : (97.96 BB, 2 players) 9s

SB shows Ac Kd (Two Pair, Kings and Nines)
(Pre 75%, Flop 84%, Turn 91%)

Hero shows Ad Qc (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 25%, Flop 16%, Turn 9%)

SB wins 97.96 BB

Getting it in pre is on the thin side, but I don’t see how else to play it. I guess flatting the 3-bet is an option, but even for 50 bigs AQ is a pretty big hand button vs SB.

I got the last of my money in good, but I’m still not sure I played it optimally:

PokerStars – $665+$35|250/500 Ante 60 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 31.23 BB (VPIP: 19.75, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 81)
BB: 19.08 BB (VPIP: 11.67, PFR: 8.77, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 60)
UTG: 14.72 BB (VPIP: 14.55, PFR: 12.73, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 55)
Hero (UTG+1): 16.51 BB
MP: 99.18 BB (VPIP: 21.82, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 55)
MP+1: 24.02 BB (VPIP: 25.45, PFR: 16.36, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 55)
CO: 4.48 BB (VPIP: 17.82, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 202)
BTN: 11.89 BB (VPIP: 21.82, PFR: 16.98, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 55)

8 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.46 BB) Hero has Ah Ks
fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop : (5.46 BB, 2 players) 5h 2h 9c
BB checks, Hero bets 1.8 BB, BB raises to 15.5 BB, Hero calls 12.59 BB and is all-in

Turn : (34.24 BB, 2 players) 7h

River : (34.24 BB, 2 players) 6c

BB shows Th 6h (Flush, Ten High)
(Pre 37%, Flop 49%, Turn 84%)

Hero shows Ah Ks (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 63%, Flop 51%, Turn 16%)

BB wins 34.24 BB

Arguably just shoving pre is better. I do have a raise-fold range from this stack size, though, and I definitely do get three-bet when I open in spots like this. I could also see checking or jamming flop, too. I mean, it’s not like I WANT action from Th 6h.

I’ll be playing again tomorrow starting at 11AM Pacific with the $2000 Super Tuesday replacement. I usually tweet interesting hands while I’m playing, so if you aren’t already, you might want to follow @thinkingpoker.

I had a bit of friction coming into Canada yesterday, nothing too serious, but the most difficult I’ve encountered on any or my trips here. The first customs agent asked me the usual questions but seemed satisfied with my answers and sent me on my way. Thinking I was in the clear, I retrieved my bag and went to leave the airport, handing my declaration form to another customs agent on the way out. The first agent must have marked something on there, because the second did a double take and then sent me to the immigration office.

The agent there was polite and a bit less aggressive than the customs people usually are, which was nice. He asked about how often I came to Canada, how long I planned to stay, and where I planned to stay. He also asked whether poker was my only source of income, and when I mentioned coaching and writing, he asked whether my writing was entirely online. I’m not really sure why that was important, but he told me to leave my bag and have a seat, then he disappeared for at least fifteen minutes.

Finally he returned and told me I’d be allowed in (he never actually inspected my bag). He said they’d had problems with online poker players staying in Canada for months at a time, returning to the US only briefly, and then coming back to Canada again. Apparently my track record of relatively brief visits over the last few years reassured them, and I was allowed into the country. Still, this was a bit of a scare, and also significant for being the first time a customs/immigration officer I’ve dealt with has demonstrated an awareness of the phenomenon of US poker players coming to Canada to play online.

Now that I’m here, it’s great to be playing the SCOOP on the west coast. Event 1 started at 5AM, which was early even for me, but from here on out none of the tournaments starts before 8AM or after 2PM. 8AM might sound early to some of you, but it’s roughly when I tend to wake up anyway, and I’m glad not to have events starting at 5PM and running until 5AM (I skipped several events last year for this reason).

I late registered all three Event 1s and came somewhat close to cashing in the $1K, ultimately busting on a coin flip:

PokerStars – $1000+$50|250/500 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 34.46 BB (VPIP: 26.92, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
MP+1: 26.33 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 11.54, 3Bet Preflop: 21.43, Hands: 26)
MP+2: 25.08 BB (VPIP: 24.44, PFR: 15.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 45)
CO: 41.15 BB (VPIP: 12.33, PFR: 5.48, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 73)
Hero (BTN): 30.1 BB
SB: 13.1 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 11.54, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
BB: 14.84 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 8.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
UTG: 40.98 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 26)
UTG+1: 75.37 BB (VPIP: 26.92, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 26)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has Jh Ac
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 5 BB, fold, fold, CO raises to 41.05 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 25 BB and is all-in

Flop : (62.4 BB, 2 players) 3s 4c 9h

Turn : (62.4 BB, 2 players) 6h

River : (62.4 BB, 2 players) 4s

CO shows 6d 6s (Full House, Sixes full of Fours)
(Pre 55%, Flop 76%, Turn 100%)

Hero shows Jh Ac (One Pair, Fours)
(Pre 45%, Flop 24%, Turn 0%)

CO wins 62.4 BB

Relatively standard I think, though I can see a case for flatting pre-flop as well.

The 6-max progressive knock-out was a lot of fun, and I wish I’d lasted longer in that one. I got off to a pretty good start, three-betting quite a bit against a very active player on my right and generally getting the better of the many pots we played together. Then I lost a chunk running JJ into his QQ. I would have been ready to lose it all, but he just flatted my three-bet out of position, and we didn’t end up getting stacks in post.

I once again miraculously managed not to go broke here:

PokerStars – $1000+$1000+$100|75/150 Ante 20 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 60.97 BB (VPIP: 5.88, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
MP: 282.54 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 22)
CO: 61.31 BB (VPIP: 47.37, PFR: 32.43, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 38)
BTN: 147.22 BB (VPIP: 35.96, PFR: 19.70, 3Bet Preflop: 2.17, Hands: 203)
SB: 77.58 BB (VPIP: 24.50, PFR: 13.91, 3Bet Preflop: 5.13, Hands: 155)
Hero (BB): 61.95 BB

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has Qd Ks
fold, fold, CO raises to 2.16 BB, BTN calls 2.16 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.16 BB

Flop : (7.78 BB, 3 players) 6s Qh As
Hero checks, CO bets 3.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 3.5 BB

Turn : (14.78 BB, 2 players) Qs
Hero checks, CO bets 12.5 BB, Hero calls 12.5 BB

River : (39.78 BB, 2 players) 7s
Hero checks, CO bets 14 BB, Hero calls 14 BB

CO shows Ac Ah (Full House, Aces full of Queens)
(Pre 86%, Flop 95%, Turn 98%)

Hero mucks Qd Ks (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 14%, Flop 5%, Turn 2%)

CO wins 67.78 BB

Villain could have easily shoved the river, and given that there was a $500 bounty for eliminating me, I think he clearly should have.

Ultimately, I was busted by a player who went after my bounty a bit more aggressively:

PokerStars – $1000+$1000+$100|75/150 Ante 20 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 167.27 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
BB: 373.33 BB (VPIP: 41.30, PFR: 34.78, 3Bet Preflop: 40.00, Hands: 47)
UTG: 107.29 BB (VPIP: 52.38, PFR: 40.32, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 63)
MP: 61.73 BB (VPIP: 35.53, PFR: 18.86, 3Bet Preflop: 2.75, Hands: 228)
CO: 68.97 BB (VPIP: 23.30, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 4.30, Hands: 180)
Hero (BTN): 24.38 BB

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has 2c 2h
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 24.25 BB and is all-in, fold, BB calls 23.25 BB

Flop : (49.79 BB, 2 players) Tc Ah Ks

Turn : (49.79 BB, 2 players) 8h

River : (49.79 BB, 2 players) Th

BB shows 8d 2d (Two Pair, Tens and Eights)
(Pre 37%, Flop 15%, Turn 98%)

Hero shows 2c 2h (Two Pair, Tens and Twos)
(Pre 63%, Flop 85%, Turn 2%)

BB wins 49.79 BB

The most interesting pot I played was against Chris Moorman in the $2000 Sunday Million replacement:

PokerStars – $2000+$100|50/100 Ante 10 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (UTG): 135.17 BB
UTG+1: 105.97 BB (VPIP: 38.46, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
MP: 69.55 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 8.89, 3Bet Preflop: 2.22, Hands: 91)
MP+1: 23.7 BB (VPIP: 21.11, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 91)
MP+2: 108.03 BB (VPIP: 31.87, PFR: 19.78, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 91)
CO: 105.24 BB (VPIP: 22.47, PFR: 17.98, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 89)
BTN: 104.23 BB (VPIP: 20.69, PFR: 8.62, 3Bet Preflop: 2.94, Hands: 60)
SB: 103.1 BB (VPIP: 6.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
BB: 95.76 BB (VPIP: 16.44, PFR: 13.70, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 74)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has As Ac
Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop : (8.4 BB, 2 players) 3d 4c 7c
Hero checks, CO bets 4.2 BB, Hero calls 4.2 BB

Turn : (16.8 BB, 2 players) 7s
Hero checks, CO bets 8.4 BB, Hero calls 8.4 BB

River : (33.6 BB, 2 players) Jc
Hero checks, CO bets 22.39 BB, Hero calls 22.39 BB

CO shows 5d 5h (Two Pair, Sevens and Fives)
(Pre 20%, Flop 23%, Turn 14%)

Hero shows As Ac (Two Pair, Aces and Sevens)
(Pre 80%, Flop 77%, Turn 86%)

Hero wins 78.38 BB

It was all downhill from there, though. I was really card dead, barely opening at all and getting three-bet almost every time I did (except when I had Kings, of course!) Eventually I open jammed 13BBs with JJ and lost a flip to AK in the big blind.

Tomorrow is the heads up, which should be a lot of fun!

I was playing a particularly nitty $5/$10/$20 game where pretty much everyone except me was quite reluctant to lose whatever they had on the table. Naturally, I’d been leaning on them, especially the player on my right, even harder than usual. I’d also been catching kind of well, so there were a few pots where I actually had the goods but didn’t go to showdown,which probably made me seem even more aggressive than I was.

Villain open limps the CO, I limp behind with As 8h on the Button, SB folds, BB completes, and the straddle checks.

Flop ($80 in pot) Qs 8d 3s. Checks to me, I bet $20, BB calls, straddle folds, CO raises to $80, I call, BB folds. This is a tricky spot because although CO’s line is pretty suspect and I block several of the strongest hands he’s representing, it’s also a kinda odd spot for him to bluff. Then again, the underbet can induce some weird stuff, especially in a player who’s already annoyed. Plus backdoor nut draw!

Turn ($260 in pot) 8s. That’s the best card in the deck for me, unless it isn’t. Villain checks, and so do I.

River ($260 in pot) Ts. Villain bets $175. I raise to $375. He seems to waffle between calling and folding, counts at another $200, then suddenly grabs more chips and makes it $700 to go. I try to talk to him a bit, don’t pick up much but he definitely doesn’t seem uncomfortable. I fold.

There’s a lot going for a fold here, especially when you realize that if this is a bluff, it would probably be the first time in this guy’s life that he ever three-bet bluff the river. Then again, I have a tendency to bring that out in people!

I’m fine with folding the As here. But the As with a hugely significant blocker, getting better than 2.5:1? Against a player who is visibly annoyed with me? Think I shoulda called this one, but it’s closer than it seems when you just look at the hand details.

For what it’s worth, I did consider jamming as well, as 33 is the hand I’m most likely to lose to if I call, but Q8 and even QQ aren’t out of the question for Villain, and frankly I don’t think he was in the mood to fold a full house to me.

The hand took a long time on the river, so when it’s over there was a lot of speculation about what we had. Someone claimed we both had nothing, someone else insisted we both had big hands. I said something along the lines of, “I folded a big hand. Not a lot of people are good enough to bluff there,” but that didn’t get any kind of reaction from Villain. I have to imagine he would have been sorely tempted to show a bluff at that point (he still had his cards), but he also didn’t muck and then insist he was bluffing, which would be a plausible reaction if he weren’t bluffing, so who’s to say?

If I could have my cards back, I’d call. You?

You can follow Joe on @joegironphoto. You can (and, if you’re a music fan, definitely should) check out his gallery of both poker and music photography.

Timestamps

0:30 hello
16:04 baltimore red
37:30 joe giron

Strategy

This hand stack sizes are 42k for her and 58k for me. Blinds are 250-500 ante 50

8 way play

Hero is on the button with 10s10h. UTG folds. Villain raises to 1500, folds to Hero, Hero 3 bets to 3700, villain calls.

Flop AsKc7d

she checks, hero c-bets 4500, she calls

turn Kh

she checks, hero checks behind

river 3h

she checks, hero bet $9000…

Timestamps

0:30 hello and welcome
13:28 strategy
33:12 matt savage

Strategy

Live Holdem NL Level 1 Blinds 25/50
First hand of the tournament so everyone has 15k in chips
Hero is dealt KsKh
SB posts 25
BB posts 50
(Hero) UTG raise to 150
UTG+1 raise to 325
UTG+4 call
SB call
BB fold
(Hero) UTG call

Flop (1350): 9s4h6s
SB check
(Hero) UTG check
UTG+1 check
UTG+4 check

Turn (1350): 4s
SB bets 600
(Hero) UTG call 600
UTG+1 fold
UTG+4 fold

River (2550): Jd
SB bets 1200
(Hero) UTG call 1200

[E]ven though position is important, and the stacks are deep enough to make 74s less ghastly than if we were 100BBs or shallower, there just aren’t enough reasons to play it. Furthermore, our image is bluffy, and that’s going to make it hard to barrel through this hand if we flop a draw/some equity and miss on the river and have to make a large bet because we either flatted a 4x pre (or 3-bet to even more) and raised or floated the flop and fired the turn. With a stubborn/bluffy image, I’d rather have a hand that wants the call it’s going to get (because our opponents are keen to look us up) instead of one that wants a fold. Sure, the flip side is with deep stacks if we make a well-concealed monster we’ll get paid off huge, but how often will that happen compared to the regrettable number of times we are forced to play into our own image and bluff?

This wouldn’t be much of a thread if Hero did fold, so I imagine there’s going to be a flat here and a float to take advantage of villain’s c-betting tendencies and predictable play from out of position.

This is me keeping my WYP range balanced. Sometimes – often, actually – you’re just supposed to fold, and I don’t want this feature to send the message that some fancy play is called for every time you pick up a remotely decent looking hand. There’s no further action here, Hero folds pre-flop. Still, there were several comments worth discussing, so let’s get to it.

The Players in the Blinds

Tracy Marrow says, “The description leads me to believe that the blinds will come along if I call, which makes indicates much better odds for our call,” and a few others echoed this argument as well.

I gave HJ a range of all broadways, all pairs, and a few suited connectors and other hands. I gave the blinds pretty loose ranges and subtracted QQ+,AK as likely 3-betting hands (which of course hurts our equity even more than if they call with those hands, though it won’t be reflected in the number shown here). Assuming they call, there will be perhaps $155 in the pot after rake, of which Hero will have contributed a little over 25%. Yet Hero will have just 16.5% equity.

If the blinds fold, Hero will be heads up with $90 in the pot, 44% of which was his. He’ll have 32% equity.

In the former case, Hero is 8.5% shy of the equity he needs to avoid losing equity on the pre-flop call, and in the latter case he is 12% shy. So he does slightly better when the blinds call, but not much. Many players overestimate this effect, but the truth is that although you get better odds in multiway pots, you also need better odds, because it’s harder to win multiway pots.

Implied Odds

Of course there is some post-flop advantage to having position on each of these players, but to some extent their favorite mistakes risk cancelling each other out. Matt Glassman says, “The description of villain immediately had me thinking “Call, float flop, take it on the turn” will happen often enough to make getting involved more profitable than folding.” He’s right that this would be the preferred strategy against the pre-flop raiser, and if we could guarantee we’d be heads up with him, this just might be profitable enough to outperform folding – I’ll come back to this argument.

However, throwing a loose player or two into the mix complicates matters. Villain will probably continuation bet less, which immediately makes floating less profitable, never mind that floating now requires hitting a parlay where neither Villain nor one of the blinds flopped much of a hand. Admittedly, less continuation betting will mean more opportunities to check behind and realize some equity on the turn, but in most cases Hero’s hand will be so weak that even a free turn card won’t be of much value. Basically we’d be calling hoping to flop a weak pair or draw with which we’d still either end up playing passively or making some pretty thin bluffs into multiple players.

The whole “make a big hand and get paid” idea isn’t as easy as it sounds when you have 74s and a 250BB stack. Two small pair is not necessarily going to be a favorite when that much money goes into the pot, nor is trips with a weak kicker. There are a few ways to make two-card straights, and those should be solid money makers, but a flush may not be. If three or four people see the flop, and then a flush card comes on the turn, even loose players know to be wary. I’m not saying you won’t win the pot often, just that you can’t count on winning huge pots terribly often.

Floating In a Heads Up Pot

Even if the two loose players in the blinds fold, Hero still isn’t in a great spot to float with no equity. If Villain c-bets $60 close to 100% on the flop and then checks close to 100% on the turn, Hero will have the opportunity to bet perhaps $100. Let’s break it down:

10% chance Villain bets turn. He always has big hands, and Hero always folds, netting -$100.

30% chance Villain checks turn and calls a bet. Hero’s net is -$200 (perhaps he recoups a bit of this with slightly +EV river barreling).

60% chance Villain checks and folds. Hero nets $110.

.10 * -$100 + .3 * -$200 + .6 * $110 = -$4.

This is an important lesson: even if you know someone will overfold on a later street, you aren’t guaranteed a profit by calling to that point with any two cards just hoping you’ll get the opportunity to exploit it. Sometimes the price you have to pay to find out whether you’ll get a profitable any-two-cards bluff is too high.

Now, if we give Hero some equity in the pot, that can easily swing this to a profitable float. But that will happen only about 1/3 of the time, and even then it won’t be a super-profitable spot, so even the “best case scenario” of seeing the flop heads up with the raiser is not an especially good one.

Three Betting

I like Eddie’s question on this subject: ” If you are 3-betting this hand, what percentage of hands will you then be 3-betting overall?” Many players do respond very badly to three-bets, and if this guy folds way too much pre-flop or on the flop, this might well be a profitable AATC (almost any two cards) spot. I didn’t give you that information, though, and it certainly shouldn’t be profitable to three-bet such weak hands against a player with a relatively strong opening range. In other words, if Villain isn’t making a big mistake in a three-bet pot, then Hero is.

In my opinion, fold > three-bet > call.

The game is $5/$10 with $2500 effective stacks. Hero is widely perceived as tough but a bit too stubborn/bluffy.

HJ is a straight-forward, experienced recreational type. He’s TAG-ish with his pre-flop hand selection, continuation bets too much, and rarely barrels the turn with either a made hand or a bluff. Unless he has a huge hand, he usually c-bets the flop, check-calls or check-folds the turn depending on whether he has anything, and then check-decides on the river . If the turn checks through, he’s capable of both bluffing and value betting rivers.

The blinds are also recreational players, though more loose and passive than HJ. Their standards for calling pre-flop and on the flop are pretty low, but they tighten up a bit as the bets get bigger.

HJ opens for $40. Hero is on the Button with 7d 4d. What’s your play and why? Posts your suggestions in the comments section below. I’ll do my best to respond throughout the week, and I’ll post my own thoughts along with results on Friday.

Applications is a Two Plus Two book par excellence. It’s dense, it’s thorough, it’s mathematically rigorous, and the only thing keeping it from a perfect score is that the writing and editing are sloppy at best and downright confusing at worst. There are dozens of typos, some as significant as a missing “not” which of course completely changes the meaning of the sentence. The subject matter is complicated, and the prose doesn’t do as much as it could to elucidate it. If anything, it serves to make the material seem even more overwhelming, and I can imagine many bookstore browsers getting intimidated.

If you can get past all that, though, you’ll find the most thorough and practical guide there is to playing unexploitable no-limit hold ’em. There are no toy games here; Janda gets right down to business applying game theory concepts to real no-limit hold ’em situations.

His techniques for estimating optimal pre-flop ranges are ingenious, and it only gets better from there. He emphasizes repeatedly that the goal isn’t to construct perfectly balanced ranges – that’s generally beyond human capabilities and in any event the details matter very little at the margins – but rather to build intuition and to recognize spots where you should be bluffing, value betting, calling, or folding more than you currently are.

Perhaps the most eye-opening conclusion for me was that there are many situations where the optimal strategy likely involves multiple bet sizes. Although Janda doesn’t go into a lot of depth on this, it’s certainly inspired me to investigate these situations for myself.

That’s not to say that Janda never goes into any depth. One of the highlights of the book are the hand examples at the end, where builds ranges for both players across multiple decision points in a single hand. His wise decision to shift the focus away from how to play a particular hand and towards building range-based strategies is the best illustration I’ve scene of both how one ought to think about poker and also how, specifically, to do that in a given situation.

This is not a book for the lazy or the close-minded. A quick skimming or surface-level reading won’t do much for you, and unfortunately the prose sometimes gets in the way of understanding already hard-to-grasp concepts. The effort is worth it, though.

I’m actually a bit dismayed by how many people are hurrying to label this player a fish and assume he’s going to be some huge mark after the flop. In fact, the way I described him was a splashy, “with lots of limping and calling pre-flop followed by lots of checking and folding post-flop.” There’s not tremendous value in dragging him into the pot. In fact, I’d probably rather he folded to the raise, as he’ll be getting 3:1 and closing the action with presumably a very playable hand. Short stacked or no, I’m not going to be looking to my stack in against him whenever I flop top pair.

Reverse Implied Odds?

Pretty much every commenter expressed some discomfort with playing KJo from out of position, and rightfully so. This is a hand I’d usually fold from the BB against a player in this position. My strong suspicion, however, is that he is raising more hands than his position warrants, and this presents an opportunity to exploit him by playing some additional hands myself.

The mere fact that KJ could be behind when it flops top pair does not make it a “reverse implied odds hand,” as Notam calls it. It’s true that it will rarely be more than a bluff-catcher, but top pair with a good kicker is generally a very good bluff-catcher. Calling bets is not generally going to be a money-losing proposition when we flop top pair, despite the presence of dominating hands in Villain’s range, because we know (or are comfotable assuming, anyway) that he will see the flop with an overly wide range. Thus, he will have only two options: rarely bet when a K or J flops, enabling us to get loads of cheap showdowns and only rarely pay off value bets, or bluff a lot at these boards, which means we’ll actually have positive implied odds on such boards. In the event that the board runs out in a way that calling is no longer profitable, we can always fold. There is never a point when we’ll be compelled to make a -EV call.

Let’s not forget that KJ probably dominates some hands in Villain’s range as well. He surely raises QJs, JTs, and KTs in this spot, and possibly some of their offsuit cousins as well.

Three-Betting vs Calling

Cromi007 says, “I like an absurd raise here, something like 200-240+.” There’s a reason why that size is absurd. Although a huge raise will indeed win the pot quite frequently, it needs to win the pot quite frequently, because it risks several times what is in the pot. Even if we take it down 75% of the time, we’ll be in such bad shape when we don’t get folds that it will likely overwhelm that fold equity. Three wins of $60 accompanied by a loss of $200 is not an appealing proposition.

Stuart says, “I don’t mind 3betting small ($90) to take control of the hand and maybe even set up a big 5-bet to win the hand pre.” This raise has the opposite problem. Instead of offering our opponent a lot of trivial folds, it offers him a lot of trivial calls. Three-betting does not magically put you in control of the hand. You’ll still be out of position, there will still be lots of money behind, and unless you have some reason to think Villain will fold excessively much either to the 3-bet or the c-bet (my description of him suggests neither), then there’s no reason to expect this to be a profitable play.

All of the information we’re responding to here is public. In other words, Villain probably realizes that UTG is going to give up too much, and will expect us to realize that as well, and will recognize that we don’t have to have a monster to 3-bet him (or 5-bet him, for that matter). It’s not enough to say, “He’s got a wide range, let’s raise in a really unbalanced way!” There’s plenty of room for him to punish that sort of imbalance, and everything we know about him suggests he’s capable of it.

What’s lacking from all of the comments advocating a three-bet is a justification for why this hand in particular is good for a three-bet. The fact that these arguments could just as well apply to 72o are a strong hint that what they’re proposing is an unbalanced play.

The fact is that KJo will not play well in a 3-bet pot. We don’t want to flop a marginal hand in a 3-bet pot, because in a 3-bet pot we want to be bluffing and value betting. KJo will not often make a good bluffing hand, and it will even more rarely make a good value betting hand. It’s going to flop mostly bluff-catchers, and that means that we want to keep Villain’s range as wide as possible and the pot as small as possible.

All of that said, I don’t think folding is terrible here by any means, especially if you aren’t confident in your post-flop ability. I think, however, that simply calling now and then playing a balanced post-flop strategy will show a profit, which should be a lesson to all those who say, “I don’t need game theory in the games I play.” Playing a bluff-catcher out of position against a wide range is one of the times that I find it most handy to be able to fall back on what I’ve learned about unexploitable play.

Results

I called, and UTG called. As you might have guessed, there’s another decision in this hand, which I’ll present momentarily in a separate post.

Thanks again to everyone who participated!

Hot off the virtual presses, my latest e-book chronicling the 2009 WSOP Main Event is now available in the Amazon Kindle Store or from www.nitcast.com.

2009 wasn’t my best year in the Main Event – in fact it was one of my worst – but understanding the agony of defeat is even more important to appreciating the WSOP experience than is understanding the thrill of victory. As always, I take you inside of my head, to see both the strategy and the emotion, the excitement and the disappointment, the great plays and the mistakes and the we’ll-never-knows.

It’ll set you back less than three bucks, so please check it out and let me know what you think, preferably in the form of an Amazon review. Thanks and enjoy!

Many of you are familiar with my videos on Tournament Poker Edge. Video training sites like TPE offer a tremendous amount of knowledge for a very low price, and I’ve been a member of many over the course of my career.

The real barrier to learning everything you need to know from subscription-based sites isn’t cost, it’s time. There are so many great videos out there that it’s hard to know which ones will best meet your needs, and it’s a real bummer to spend your valuable time watching one that doesn’t address your needs or is just plain bad.

These personalized videos offer the best of both worlds. Like subscription-based sites, they’re a lot cheaper than one-on-one coaching, but they’re a far more efficient use of your time because they are tailored specifically to your needs.

To learn more or to commission a personalized video, please visit https://www.thinkingpoker.net/coaching/poker-coaching-programs/custom-video-review/.

Here’s a full-length sample of what I can offer. It’s an actual video that I created for one of my students. Whether or not you have any interest in commissioning a video for yourself, I hope you’ll find it valuable!

Timestamps

0:30 Interview: Edoardo Riario Sforza
33:43 Strategy: Two tough final table decisions

UTG is a typical splashy recreational player, with lots of limping and calling pre-flop followed by lots of checking and folding post-flop. He has about $800 in his stack.

HJ is the best of the competition by a long shot. He definitely knows how to take advantage of different types of players by isolating, barreling, floating, squeezing, etc., and he’s definitely made some plays like these against me in good spots. I don’t have enough experience with him to say whether he’s actually balancing against me or whether he’s playing more of a Level 2, “This guy opens a lot so I’m just going to three-bet him with any two” sort of strategy. He’s definitely unbalanced, in a good way, against the less tough competition. I’m playing about $2500, and he covers.

UTG limps for $10. Three players fold, then HJ raises to $40. Action folds to Hero in the BB with KJo.

What’s your play and why? Comment below with your thoughts and preferred play, and I’ll be back on Friday with my own thoughts and action.

He open limped the CO for $10, I made it $40 with Ah 5h on the Button, the blinds folded, and he called.

The flop came Kh Qh Ts. He checked, I bet $75 (was experimenting with multiple bet sizes last night), and he called.

The turn was the Jh, he checked, and I bet $75 again because I was mostly targeting two-pair or a low-straight. I didn’t think he’d play much Ax this way, and I blocked a lot of flushes.

He tanked for a while, then raised $200. I was planning to 3-bet to $600, but I took my time, and he started giving off some really blatant weak-means-strong tells. He told I didn’t have anything, that I should just let him win a small pot, etc. At some point he asked if I had an Ace or a 9.

All of that made me aim a little higher, so I popped it to $700. He pushed out a stack worth about $1800, I shoved for his last $600 or so, he quickly called, and I tabled my hand even before the river came down because I thought I had the nuts. The river blanked off, and then he tabled the Th 9h. Even after I saw it, it took me a minute to realized I’d lost.

Despite the blatant tells, I don’t regret my play. I think he could behave the same with a lot of flushes, thinking that I just have an Ace.

You can follow Ben on Twitter @professorben and read his articles in Cardplayer.

Timestamps

0:30 hello and welcome
6:00 strategy w Cyrus
43:21 Ben Yu

Strategy

$2/$5 NLHE. Two limps in early position, one limp in late position, Hero makes it $30 with AJo in the BB, all call.

Flop ($115) J86r. Hero bets $70, first limper raises to $210, second limper calls all-in for his last $85, folds back to Hero, Hero calls.

Turn ($620 in pot) 2. Hero checks and folds to $150.

Edit: Corrected flop, should be J86.

The reason I find it interesting is that it reminds me of an important conclusion from Mathematics of Poker that I’d forgotten about entirely until I reread that book. In “Playing Accurately, Part I: Cards Exposed Situations”, Chen and Ankenman demonstrate that there are situations where a player with an obvious (exposed, in their hypothetical) draw actually does better by raising all-in on the flop, knowing he’ll put the rest of his money in from behind (though with sufficient pot odds) rather than calling and giving his opponent the opportunity to bet him out on a blank turn or check-fold when the draw comes in.

Of course there are any number of reasons why that may not be applicable to this hand. It presumes an opponent who will correctly bet the turn when ahead and correctly check-fold when behind. If, as Eddie argues, Villain can be expected to run a big bluff on cards that complete Hero’s draw, then there is more room to outplay him on future streets.

On Calling

I think many commenters are overestimating how easy it will be to outplay Villain on a blank turn, though. Shoving over a turn bet works only if Villain has a lot of air in his range, as he probably isn’t bet-folding a Q or a 9 or a better draw. Calling in hopes of getting there on the river probably requires decent implied odds to be better than getting it in on the flop even if Villain never folds.

I’m not at all sure what would be the best play if Villain checked a blank. I suppose I would opt for a smallish bet of perhaps 1/3 pot, but getting check-shoved is such a disaster that I don’t feel too great about that plan.

I don’t think the best play is particularly clear if the turn is a J or a T, either. Some people seem to want to call down on blank rivers, and I can see why, but Pepito also makes a good point that “villains of these sorts tend to thin hero calling rather than triple barreling with air (particularly in a 3b pot where hero has called a check raise and a second barrel).”

On Shoving

Pepito also asserts that, “shoveling 4.5K into 1.2K pot against a callbox seems terrible– particularly with position.” Having already explained why I don’t see a lot of ways to capitalize on my position, I’ll now address the “callbox” argument.

The tricky thing here is that this hand actually blurs the line between a value bet and a bluff. On the hand, it certainly feels icky to stick in a lot of money with Jack-high against a player who’s shown a willingness to call down extremely light. But what, really, can his looseness do to hurt us?

No one is check-raise-folding the hands that have us in truly bad shape, which would be nut flush draws, two pairs, and sets. I wouldn’t really expect Qx to take this line either – people might check-raise-call it, or they might not check-raise it, but I don’t see it getting check-raise-folded.

So what can Villain’s looseness add to his calling range, and how can that hurt us? All he can do is start calling with really weak hands, and Hero is a pretty big favorite against those, as Sean F. points out. Hero has 63.5% equity against 9d 8d and 76% against 8s 7s.

There’s a lot of talk about not wanting to put your stack in “on a flip”, but that’s a misleading way of framing the situation. What you really need to consider is not just the end result – how much equity do you have when the money goes in – but rather how can your actions manipulate the situation to give you more or less EV.

Regardless of your flop action, there are a lot of scenarios where you end up playing big pots against the top of his range. Against the bottom of his range, you’re a solid favorite, and raising the flop can only lead to good things. Villain can either forfeit a significant amount of equity by folding, or he can put his money in from behind and lose the ability to play well on future streets (he might continue bluffing a spade with air, but will he bet/stack off with 98?).

A lot of the value in calling comes from inducing bluffs. Maybe we get to shove over a bet on a blank turn, and maybe we induce some big bluffs when we hit.

Results

Raising less than all in still leaves open the possibility of inducing a bluff. If Villain check-raises the flop with more than just pairs and draws, then there’s a real chance he’ll four-bet-fold some of that air. He’s shown a propensity for this sort of play in wide range situations before.

That last point was the deciding factor for me. I three-bet the flop $1300, Villain made it $3100, I shoved, and he did some thinking (about what, I’m not sure – whatever it was presumably should have happened before he four-bet) and then called with what turned out to be Ad Kd. That was an outcome I hadn’t anticipated, but again I’m a 65% favorite in the case where Villain decides to make a really loose call, which means that getting it in on the flop is better for me than shoving over the check-raise and having Villain fold (though I would have preferred a fold to the five-bet).

The board ran out blank, and Villain collected a massive pot with Ace-high while the table collectively gawked. I warned you this was a bad beat post!

“[T]his looks like a textbook example of a “leveling war”, with each player trying to anticipate and stay one step ahead of his opponent’s exploitive strategy. Clearly, Tonking got the upper hand in this case.

That’s not to say that Newhouse was completely misguided to think that a bluff could succeed at an extremely high frequency. It was the final table of poker’s most prestigious tournament, both players had a lot at stake, and he’d already made clear that he did not want to finish in ninth place for a second year in a row. Then again, Tonking may have known and taken all of those factors into consideration.

The point I want to make is that Newhouse did not have to enter into this war at all. When you are genuinely unsure of how your opponent will respond, there are alternatives to taking your best guess. There is more to poker than good reads and “heart”. The fundamental mathematics of the game limit how much you can get away with, at least against a skilled opponent, even when you have the right read and the nerve to act on it.”

I also have an article called “Keep ‘Em Guessing” appearing on Poker News:

“The best guide I’ve found to judging my own play is my opponents’ reactions. If they seem consistently confused about whether to bet or how to respond to my bets, then I’m probably doing something right.”

Hope you enjoy them, please let me know what you think!

Timestamps

0:30 – hello & welcome
3:24 – strategy: getting value & showing bluffs
34:54 – interview: carlos in florida

Pre-flop and on the flop, I argued that Hero had the opportunity, thanks to a bet sizing tell, to get more credit than he deserved on a 3-bet/c-bet and consequently could make these plays with a wide range. Essentially picking up on that tell (if it was in fact a tell) bought Hero some extra fold equity pre-flop and on the flop. Now, though, that fold equity may well be used up, and Soner asks a good question: “I am still having a hard time imagining what a tight aggressive and borderline nitty player would raise UTG2 preflop, call a three bet and call a flop continuation bet on a Ks 8d 6d board. This play doesn’t seem tight aggressive at all to me unless he flopped a monster and knows you will three barrel. Also, you mentioned other players will give hero more credit than he deserves. If that is the case, and UTG2 thinks you have a very strong hand what is he calling you with?”

That’s not to say Villain will never fold the turn. There’s a good chance medium pocket pairs like TT are still in range (if they aren’t in the category of hands he’d raise larger) as well as possibly 98s or 87s, and all of these probably fold if they don’t have flush draws. Maybe he’d even fold KJ or KT without a diamond.

Plus, Hero has plenty of flushes in his range that he’d like to bet. All of that argues for having a bluffing range on the turn. The key question, though, is not whether Hero should ever bluff the turn, but whether this particular hand belongs in his betting range or his checking range?

Bryan Gour’s comment raises a lot of good points, but this one in particular is worth noticing: “I expect the top of his range to be check calling and check raising, and all of his 99/TT/QQ with a diamond to have a pretty low calling frequency.” I would go even further and say that, with stacks being what they are, there’s a good chance that Villain’s calling range will be quite narrow, maybe only pairs with flush draws and the occasional slowplayed nuts, and that he’ll usually raise or fold.

The fact that betting so rarely results in Hero seeing the river card suggests that a draw with substantial equity vs Villain’s folding range might not be the best bluffing candidate, because Hero won’t get to realize that equity. Betting a more polarized range of flushes and hands with little to no equity is probably the better strategy.

The Case For Folding

This is the least appealing option, and in practice I probably just wouldn’t sit in a game where the conditions that would cauto pse me to fold this would be likely to arise. Against two top-notch opponents, and especially with more tough opponents behind you, I’d fold. Even under these conditions, deeper stacks could compel me to call or three-bet, but with these stacks you need an appreciable post-flop edge that is not merely positional because you figure to be in bad shape against their ranges for entering the pot in such early position. Thankfully, we are not playing against such players, and against weaker opponents this is exactly the sort of hand you want to use to exploit their mistakes.

The Case For Calling

UTG is the mark at the table, and we’d like to play pots with him. Calling gives us the best chance of bringing him along and keeps the stacks nice and deep which maximizes our positional advantage.

Gareth and others make the important point that the risk of a squeeze from someone behind could take a bite out of the profitability of calling, but I agree with Aldune that, “Generally I would never worry about getting squeezed in a 2/5 game. This happens way too infrequently for it to a decisive factor in this hand.” It’s worth asking whether someone behind you will make this play with a good frequency, but the answer will usually be no.

Several commenters shared Piers’ concern that “[the raiser’s] range has us crushed so much of the time you’d have to be concerned about calling his c-bet on a T or Q high flop.” Even if his range really is that strong, though, position can help us to navigate these treacherous waters, though. For instance, if we have a read that UTG2 won’t continuation bet a whiffed Ace-King into multiple callers, then we can fold to a bet even if hit top pair without any redraws, but we can also count on stealing a lot of pots when checked to. Otherwise, it will probably be safe to peel one when we flop top pair and fold to further action from him.

As for UTG, Mh says, ” I expect the loose UTG to check/call the flop most of the time.” This is a common misconception about loose players. A player who sees the flop with an excessively wide and weak range is actually going to check and fold a lot of flops (or, if he doesn’t, he’ll check and fold a lot of turns). Weak pre-flop ranges turn into weak flop ranges, and even if his standards for what counts as a “fit” are on the low side, he’s still going to have a lot of “folds”.

These players actually end up being very good targets for semi-bluffing, because there comes a point where they have to let go of all of those weak hands. Basically, all of their calling ranges are too wide. They call pre-flop and fold flop often. They call pre-flop and flop and fold turn often. They call to the river and then fold often. And, because their pre-flop ranges are so wide, they still have enough weak hands to call three barrels too often. So you can keep firing with your draws, profit from the many weak hands that will fall by the wayside on each street, and also benefit from their willingness to pay off when you complete your draws.

I discuss this concept in greater detail in How To Bluff a Calling Station.

What you cannot afford to do is try to “set mine” with this hand and expect to profit by being loose and passive. In other words, you can’t call, hope to flop two-pair or a draw, fold when you don’t, play passively when you do, and expect to show enough of a profit on the rare occasions that you actually make a strong hand to make up for all those earlier calls from behind. This is the mistake that Ed Miller calls “playing poker like a slot machine”. If you’re going to play this hand, you need to use your position and your draw equity to push your opponents out when the opportunity arises.

The Case For Raising

Given that you’re anticipating some post-flop aggression, it would be great to get the ball rolling pre-flop. After all, by flatting you take most of the strongest pre-flop hands out of your range, and that makes it harder to represent strength later.

As Piers points out, the big drawbacks to 3-betting are the risks of putting in a lot of money against a very strong range and possibly even being blown out by a 4-bet. Several people correctly mention that 4-bets, like squeezes, are rare in these games, and we can probably assume that UTG2 is not going to 4-bet light. It seems, then, that a lot of the risk of 3-betting could be eliminated if we could exclude the top 5% or so of hands from UTG2’s range.

Brian was the only commenter to mention the possibility of sizing tells, but if we have reason to believe that UTG2 would have made a larger raise with his strongest holdings, then this has the potential to swing a call to a 3-bet. Many people assumed that because this player is described as “bordering on nitty” that he must have a big hand. What would you expect such a player to do with 99 or AJ in this spot? Trying to isolate a loose player with a small raise seems in character.

What about if this same player had AA? The best players will keep their pre-flop sizing consistent so as not to give away information like this, but many people will be tempted to make a larger raise. After all, they can expect UTG to come along even for a larger raise, and many of these players hate getting drawn out on or playing multi-way pots when they have big pairs.

If we’re right about UTG2 capping his range with this raise size, then 3-betting and barreling will be extremely profitable. Only low probability events such as someone behind waking up with a monster or someone calling and flopping a monster should keep us from winning this pot.

Bottom Line

I think a lot of people are overestimating the value of a strategy built around making a huge hand and getting paid by UTG (as I argued before, his looseness doesn’t necessarily translate into auto-stacking him; in fact the opposite may well be true) and not appreciating the value of locking up, with a high probability, the $30 that is already in the pot. I even think that there are further implied odds attached to 3-betting, not just because you will occasionally make a strong hand but because you may well make more money from barreling than from getting folds immediately.

With only 120BB stacks, there’s not a need for a large raise. $50 – $55 should be enough to isolate UTG2 (though if UTG wants to cold call that’s fine too) and set you up for more profitable bluffing later should you get called.

A new post is coming shortly for discussion of flop action.

The latest and greatest volume in my Thinking Poker Diaries is now available at nitcast.com or in the Amazon Kindle Store. This third volume in the series follows the same format as the first two, interspersing anecdotes from the tournament with strategy essays that discuss topics that came up during my play. Longer than the first two volumes combined, this one tells the story of my 35th place finish in the 2008 WSOP Main Event. Please check it out and let me know what you think!

Timestamps

:30 Hello & Welcome
16:42 Strategy
44:24 Interview: Computer Poker Research Group

You’re at a 9-handed $2/$5 NLHE table with $600 effective stacks. UTG is very loose, especially pre-flop, and the whole table is salivating over him. UTG+2 is tight-aggressive bordering on nitty.

UTG limps for $5. UTG2 raises to $20, and the action folds to you in the CO with Qs Ts. What’s your play and why?

UTG opens to $40, MP calls, I call with 4c 2c in the BB.

Flop ($125 in pot) 9c 5s 3h. I check, UTG bets $75, MP folds, I raise to $275, UTG makes it $640, I call.

Turn ($1405 in pot) 4h. I bet $800, UTG calls.

River ($3005 in pot) As. I shove for ~$3000, UTG calls with 99.

Pre-flop isn’t exactly standard, but MP was the weakest player at the table (overly loose, sizing tells, etc.), and although UTG seemed like a pretty decent player, I knew that he wasn’t one of the best regs, because even though I don’t play at Maryland Live that often I do know who the best pros there are.

I love my hand on this flop. As deep as we are, I’m more excited to have hit this than to have hit bottom set. The only hands I’d rather hold are top set, 76 with a backdoor, or 64 with a backdoor, in that order. This is a very easy check-raise. If you’re not clear on why, put yourself in UTG’s shoes and imagine how you’d feel about playing for stacks with anything less than 55 (which may not even be in his UTG range).

To be honest, I was skeptical of Villain’s three-bet. I’d actually won another pot recently at the must move table (Villain was already in the main game so wasn’t around to see this) by min-4-bet bluffing against another reg in a very similar spot. I can’t see him doing this with the intention to get stacks in unless he has a set or a big draw, and many players won’t take this line with those hands anyway. Because I had such a good draw, though, I decided to peel and pull the trigger on a later street.

The turn is a great card for my purposes, because it completes the most obvious draw. I can’t definitively exclude 76s from Villain’s range, but I had my doubts as to whether he’d open it pre and whether he’d three-bet the flop. I think he should do both, but even many pretty good mid-stakes live pros are too nitty about that sort of thing.

My biggest mistake here is the sizing. I planned to shove any river that didn’t pair the board (maybe not hearts either, just because he might not expect me to jam non-flushes for value although I would), and consequently I should have set up sizing so that I was betting more similar percentages of the pot on both streets. I think $1000 into $1400 on the turn and then $2800 into $3400 on the river would have worked out better.

Frankly, I think his river call is pretty bad. Most of my semi-bluffs have gotten there, and on this run-out I’m not shoving a lower set for value. This is what happens when you just think about “bluffs” generically rather than considering which exact hands your opponent would bluff with.

I was initially excited not only to win the pot but also to have a player sitting two seats to my right who still had me covered! As tempting as the prospect of winning a $20K pot was, he proved pretty nitty and it was getting late, so after an hour of unsuccessfully trying to provoke a confrontation with him, I cashed out and called it a night.

“Antonio Esfandiari, who was providing commentary for ESPN while the hand went down, said “He put his opponent on a hand and played accordingly. That’s how you win at no-limit hold ’em.”

I respectfully disagree. What does it mean to “play accordingly” when you have TT and you put your opponent on QQ?  If you know he will fold, then bluffing would be correct. If you know he won’t fold, then giving up and checking and/or folding would be correct. What if you don’t know what he’ll do?

The fact that Newhouse was attempting to bluff Tonking off of hands barely better than his own, and even moreso the fact that Tonking called, indicate that someone made a theoretical mistake at some point in the hand.”

I not only analyze the hand in depth but also make some broader points about how and when to use game theory in tournament situations where ICM considerations have a huge influence on the correct play. Given the scope of the article, it’s going to be spread over two issues, so the one that’s out now is Part 1.

We’ve also got an extra-long strategy segment about playing post-flop in 3-bet pots.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
6:47 – Strategy: Playing in 3-Bet Pots
47:33 – Interview: David Einhorn

Strategy

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold’em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

Hero (Button) ($228.51)
SB ($172.65)
BB ($223.63)
UTG ($215.56)
MP ($206)
CO ($200)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, K
2 folds, CO raises to $5, Hero raises to $13, 2 folds, CO calls $8

Flop: ($29) A, 10, Q (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($29) J (2 players)
CO bets $18.55, Hero calls $18.55

River: ($66.10) Q (2 players)
CO bets $42.41, Hero raises to $196.96 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $150.92 | Rake: $2.80

Best Strategy

Nate and I talk strategy on just about every episode, but of course the show is at its very best strategy-wise when the game’s top players share their wisdom.

Ben Sulsky – It was a great privilege to talk about game theory (and philosophy) with a player who is blazing new frontiers in poker strategy.

Mike McDonald – Our conversation with Mike was great in a lot of ways, but among other things he was generous enough to share some deep thoughts on tournament strategy, including the underappreciated “hero check”.

Fascinating Stories

My favorite guests are not only great players (sometimes they aren’t players at all) but also fascinating people who open up about their struggles, their successes, and unique poker careers.

John the Lawyer – A long career in big live games, including a lot of private games, is bound to produce some great stories, and John tells them well. If you overlooked this episode because you didn’t recognize the name, go back and listen. There’s some solid strategy discussion in here as well.

Dara O’Kearney – Going pro later in life gave Dara a unique perspective on the poker world, and his Irish blood gives him the ability to share his thoughts with both humor and deep insight into many facets of the game, including staking.

Terrence Chan – Terrence not only shares stories from his poker and mixed martial arts careers but also gives some insight into the state of regulated online poker in Nevada. This interview is particularly interesting in light of what happened with Ultimate Poker just a few months later.

Ari Engel – Ari reveals that the life of the circuit grinder isn’t always a glamorous one. Even one of the most successful player on the WSOP circuit has to live a nitcast-approved lifestyle to keep his dream alive.

Alex Fitzgerald – Alex is brutally honest about the highs and lows of his career, including his struggle with drugs and his new life in Costa Rica.

Just Plain Fun

Nate and I rarely have as much fun as when we get to catch up with some of the great friends we’ve made through the podcast, and when we’re having the most fun, that’s usually when the show is the most fun to listen to.

Live From Las Vegas featuring Carlos Welch – One of the perks of our relationship with PokerNews was the opportunity to record together in person (a rare treat in itself) from the halls of the World Series of Poker. Carlos Welch joins us for this entertaining episode that includes a lot of strategy discussion from non-hold ’em games.

Episode 100 – This is one for the fans. In this double-length episode, two of our most popular guests, Carlos Welch and Gareth Chantler, turn the tables and interview Nate and me about our lives and poker careers.

“The heads-up battle between Martin Jacobson and Felix Stephensen was perhaps the finest culmination to a World Series of Poker Main Event in recent history. In past years, the final showdown frequently occurred between a professional and an amateur player. In such cases, the professional can generally anticipate a large theoretical advantage and thus has a lot of incentive to keep pots small and pass on high-variance plays in order to maximize his chances of realizing that advantage. Such matches tend to look more like a game of cat-and-mouse, and while playing such a style is a skill unto itself, it doesn’t always prove strategically instructive for heads-up play between more evenly matched opponents. Jacobson and Stephensen, however, are both extremely talented professionals, and as a result their heads-up play exhibited many more thin calls, bluffs, and value bets than were seen in past years.

With thanks to Martin Harris of Hard Boiled Poker for compiling a list of the cards held by each player in each hand of the final table, here’s my analysis of some of the trickier decisions faced by Jacobson and Stephensen in the final hands of the 2014 WSOP Main Event”

If you don’t have the first book yet, now is the time to pick it up. It’s on sale for just $0.99 at www.nitcast.com through the end of the weekend!

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
8:29 – Strategy: a hand that will haunt you for the rest of your life
45:33 – Interview: Dara O’Kearney

Strategy

Blinds 6K-12K with a 2K Ante. Villain (350K) opens to 25K, Hero (500K) calls ATo on the button, everyone else folds.

Flop As 8s 6h. Villain checks, Hero bets 75K into 84K, Villain calls.

Turn 3h. Villain checks, Hero shoves, Villain calls.

If you aren’t already a member, please click here to sign up for Tournament Poker Edge.

For just $2.99, you can purchase The Thinking Poker Diaries, Volume 1 directly from me (you’ll get an EPUB, a PDF, and a Kindle file) or from Amazon (Kindle file only).

There’s a substantial preview available on Amazon, but for a better idea of what to expect, here’s the Table of Contents:

Introduction
How I Became A Poker Player
Introduction to the WSOP
Day One
Three-Betting Light
Day Two
The Bubble
Day Three
Playing a Short Stack
Day Four
More Stories! More Strategy! More Poker!

For those who do read it, please star & review on Amazon and recommend to your friends. I deliberately made the book very inexpensive because I’m more interested in reaching a wide audience than in maximizing my profit.

I’d also be very appreciate for any constructive criticism, as I plan to do a lot more of these and would love to see them improve with each volume.

Thanks!

Andrw