Seidman not only updates his advice for contemporary game conditions but also corrects a few of his own earlier mistakes and re-explains some material in light of his current thinking about the game. The result is substantial value added to what was already an exceptionally good no-limit hold ‘em cash game book, one of the few offering really high-level insights to experienced players.

You can read the full review at http://www.thinkingpoker.net/poker-book-reviews/book-review-easy-game-by-andrew-seidman/.

I got an IM yesterday from a student who’s worked with me for a few months. He is originally from Paris, and though he now lives in Manhattan, he played this hand at a French casino while visiting his mother for the holidays. It couldn’t be a better example of what I’m trying to help my students achieve, and I am really proud both of this student and of the progress he has made:

[12/22/2011 8:38:16 PM] Student: dedicated a call to you tonight!
[12/22/2011 8:38:44 PM] Foucault: i’m intrigued
[12/22/2011 8:39:02 PM] Student: haha, ok, 6max french tournament.
[12/22/2011 8:39:24 PM] Student: 400/800/75
[12/22/2011 8:39:29 PM] Student: i have 36k
[12/22/2011 8:39:40 PM] Student: huge stack to my right has around 70k
[12/22/2011 8:40:22 PM] Student: the previous hand was me and him BvB and I shoved on his cbet with an open ender. he folded very frustrated saying “next time you’re getting called.”
[12/22/2011 8:40:32 PM] Student: type of guy who if things don’t go his way, you’re a bad player.
[12/22/2011 8:40:49 PM] Student: so the following hand he opens to 2400 in the CO and I have A8ss in the btn.
[12/22/2011 8:41:08 PM] Student: pretty sure that a 3bet would get be very little respect and woudl lack fold euiqty, i decided to flat.
[12/22/2011 8:41:15 PM] Student: flop comes K5K
[12/22/2011 8:41:27 PM] Student: and he bets 1400 into 6000
[12/22/2011 8:42:14 PM] Student: his range in the co is too wide to put him on a K right away but I don’t think raising him here is going to achieve much.
[12/22/2011 8:42:30 PM] Student: and i’m getting obv getting a good price so I peel one.
[12/22/2011 8:42:39 PM] Student: turn a 7d
[12/22/2011 8:43:09 PM] Student: he now bets around 8500 into 9k.
[12/22/2011 8:43:44 PM] Student: i have 30k behind roughly and start to think about his line and how it doesn’t make sense for him to do this with a K.
[12/22/2011 8:44:23 PM] Student: the small bet on flop and huge bet on turn seems fishy so I decide to call assuming i’m good and ready to call or check back a lot of rivers.
[12/22/2011 8:44:52 PM] Student: river 10h and he shoves.
[12/22/2011 8:45:15 PM] Student: i tanked for about 5 mins. eventually deciding that he either had a full house/AK or air.
[12/22/2011 8:45:57 PM] Student: I think he checks all his PP, all his 10 (J10, Q10..etc…)
[12/22/2011 8:46:10 PM] Student: obviously values his K10 but i don’t think that big.
[12/22/2011 8:46:28 PM] Student: and certainly doesn’t value a pair of 7′s or 5′s. not good enough.
[12/22/2011 8:46:53 PM] Student: So I call and he inta mucks.
[12/22/2011 8:47:04 PM] Foucault: did you show?
[12/22/2011 8:47:11 PM] Student: i did
[12/22/2011 8:47:13 PM] Foucault: you have to
[12/22/2011 8:47:14 PM] Foucault: that is so badass
[12/22/2011 8:47:21 PM] Student: i thought he was gonna kill me.
He finished 15th in the tournament after shoving A7 into AQ, which I’m sure was disappointing for him. Still, calls like these are their own reward. You can tell just from this snippet of conversation how sophisticated his thought process was and how excited he was to make the right play when it required something as courageous as calling three barrels for his whole stack with no pair. Hands like these you remember for the rest of your career.

Tres bien!

Most high-volume MTT players are very predictable in the early stages of tournaments. This isn’t so much because they value their survival or because they don’t know how to play deep-stacked but simply because it is more profitable for them to play more games and more or less write off the early stages. They will accumulate a few chips if they get good cards, but if not they will wait until stacks get shorter and the antes kick in. This is where they really shine and where their decisions have a higher impact on their equity, so they choose to focus on tournaments that have already reached this stage and play more straightforwardly in the early levels of their other games.

The simple story to tell here is that Villain raised pre-flop with a solid hand, checked because he had nothing on the flop and didn’t care to fight for a small pot, and then bet once he turned a good hand. Of course if the Ace improved him then KQ is drawing slim. Essentially I agree with NimhofJoy: “It’s not necessarily a board I expect villain to cbet with showdown value (Ax, PPs, 8x, 6x) because it’s so wet he’s going to get ch/r a lot and have to fold. Unless he’s turning a lot of those PPs into bluffs on the turn, what does he have on the turn that he needs to bluff with that he doesn’t just check back again?”

There is also the chance that Villain still has nothing but saw a second check and a good scare card and decided to take a stab at. We can’t be sure, but as John put it,  “Why play oop where your chances of making a mistake are higher than his”. I believe Hero is getting sufficient pot odds to call the turn, but that it’s close enough that his reverse implied odds on the river turn it into a fold. In other words, the mistakes Hero will inevitably make on the river will cost him more equity than calling the turn will gain him.

The bit about getting barely the right pot odds on the turn may surprise some people. As JD says, “my 2 checks showed significant weakness and the ace is a good bluffing card.” This is true, but it’s a good bluffing card for a reason, namely that it hits Villain’s range well. It’s not sufficient simply to demonstrate that Villain may be bluffing; we must estimate his bluffing range and compare it to his value range.

This isn’t easy, and as several commenters pointed out, it entails a lot of assumptions about which we can’t have a high degree of certainty. Then again, making decisions under conditions of uncertainty is what poker is all about, and making your rough guesses slightly less rough can improve your win rate considerably. So let’s give it a go.

We’ll start with his pre-flop opening range. What do we make of his 14% ATS? It suggests that he isn’t opening up too much from late position, but it’s a mistake to take 14% as an exact number. We’re dealing with a small sample, I started by using Poker Stove to see what the top 14% of hands looks like. Then I added a few more that I couldn’t see him open folding, mostly suited connectors and suited Aces. Here’s the rough range I came up for his pre-flop raise: {22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,ATo+,KJo+,QJo,JTo}. This is nearly 22% of hands, so it may be a little too wide, or maybe Villain has just had a string of bad cards in steal position so far.

I expect him to bet top pair or better on the flop almost always and also to bet his flush draws more often than not. If he does check a flush draw, it’s most likely the nut draw, but I would consider that a non-straightforward play. Taking the nut flush draws out of his turn range makes a noticeable difference in Hero’s equity, so this is an important assumption about which we can’t be sure, but I’m inclined to say he bets them. I also think that he bets gutshots on the flop. Even if he doesn’t c-bet his air, draws make for very good continuation betting hands, and I would consider this the standard way to play them. Strong made hands and any draw sounds about right for a guy with a roughly 40% continuation bet.

I don’t think he’s betting pocket pairs on the turn. There’s a case to be made for it, but it’s surely a trickier and higher variance line than checking it down. Again, that’s not the kind of play I expect to see from this type of player at this stage of the tournament. This leaves his turn betting range at { Aks,AJs-A2s,KJs-K9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AKo,AJo-ATo,KJo}, less the diamond versions of his suited hands. Some commenters questioned whether he’d bet the weak Aces on the turn, but facing two checks I believe that he would. He can expect to have the best hand, there are a number of draws on the board, and he probably doesn’t expect us to fold a Q.

Against that range, KQ has 38% equity. Hero needs 28% equity to call this bet. That makes it a call, right?

That depends how confident you are in the assumptions I made and how well you feel you can play the river. Personally, I don’t feel comfortable making nearly as many assumptions about his river play as I do about the earlier streets. I don’t have a great answer for how to respond to a bet on virtually any river, and that’s a recipe for getting outplayed. Even with 10% more equity than I think I would need to call the turn, I opted to fold here, because the cost of getting outplayed on the river, either paying off a value bet or folding to a bluff, could easily swamp a small edge in a small pot.

There are only five river cards that I feel I can play better than my opponent with this hand in this position.

On top of it all, there’s the matter of passing up small edges in tournaments, and this is a great example of how to avoid ending up in bad spots in big pots. When possible, anticipate them and get out of the way early.

A few commenters suggested check-raising the turn. I’ll say first that I love the creativity! I think this line has some merit, but I’d want a bit more of a read. I’m reluctant to try to bluff even good players off of top pair, especially when they know that that’s what their hand looks like and that I’m capable of recognizing that. Again, in a tournament, I’m trying to avoid thin/marginal/high variance plays, so I’d want to have a high degree of certainty that he’d actually fold the hands I’d need him to fold.

Takeaway lessons from this week’s hand:

1. Start your hand-reading pre-flop. Didn’t we just talk about this?

2. Think ahead. Even if you can show a small profit now, are you at risk of getting outplayed in a larger pot later?

3. It’s not enough to recognize a good bluffing card, especially not if your opponent knows that it looks like a good bluffing card. You have to put your opponent on a range and figure out what he will bluff and how thin he can value bet.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 320 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (5 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t3023)
Hero (BB) (t3978)
UTG (t4344)
MP (t2230)
Button (t1910)

Hero’s M: 53.04

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q♥, K♠
1 fold, MP bets t100, 2 folds, Hero calls t50

Flop: (t225) Q♦, 8♦, 6♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: (t225) A♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets t150

You can argue with the action up to this point if you want, but I’m prepared to dig in my heels. I’m most interested to know how you’re going to proceed from here, both on this street and on club, diamond, straightening, and blank rivers.

I leave Canada tomorrow morning. We’re flying into Las Vegas, camping for a few days in Death Valley, then flying to Maryland for the holidays. All that travel will likely delay my posting the results until Saturday or possibly even Sunday, but I’ll get them up when I can.

Until then, the action’s on you. What’s your plan?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (5 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($400)
Hero (UTG) ($622.50)
MP ($406)
Button ($408.80)
SB ($546.55)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K♥, Q♥
Hero bets $14, 3 folds, BB raises to $44, Hero calls $30

Flop: ($90) J♣, J♠, 2♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $33, BB calls $33

Turn: ($156) 4♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $55, 1 fold

Total pot: $156 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero didn’t show K♥, Q♥.
Outcome: Hero won $154