Consequently, I made the decision to call down based on the fact that the board came out very badly for my range. I think Villain would (correctly) expect me to bet flush draws on the flop, and the check-call probably indicates either a pair of T’s or a pocket pair to him. QT isn’t the absolute top of my range here- that would be something like AT or KdT, but it’s close enough to the top that I think it needs to be in my calling range against a Villain capable of triple barreling on a run-out that’s bad for my perceived range. The fact that draws missed on the river should also increase his bluffing frequency, as he may expect me to be on a pair + draw planning to fold if I don’t improve.

Don’t get me wrong: I don’t expect to be good here anywhere near all the time. He would surely play flushes, straights, and probably AJ and AT this way. This isn’t even a particularly good line to take, and it’s not something I planned from the beginning. I just checked, and then he kept betting, and I kept thinking about how unlikely I was to have a good hand and therefore how much he ought to be bluffing me.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4 BB (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

BB ($456.10)
UTG ($600.80)
Button ($1008.80)
Hero ($2248.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ts, Qs.
1 fold, Button raises to $9.2, Hero raises to $32.8, 1 fold, Button calls $23.60.

Flop: ($70.40) 3c, Td, Jd (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $48, Hero calls $48.

Turn: ($166.40) Ad (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $126, Hero calls $126.

River: ($418.40) 2c (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $288, Hero calls $288.

Final Pot: $994.40

Results in white below:
Hero has Ts Qs (one pair, tens).
Button has 7c 4c (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins $994.40.

One last comment, regarding the 3-bet: Villain actually had pretty high F3B stats, but most of my history with him is from 100BB games. If I knew he would have such a wide calling range, I would not have 3-bet this hand.

Last night, in the $300 rebuy FTOPS event, I was rolling along nicely and then fell off the wagon:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 170/340 Blinds 25 Ante (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t13511)
UTG (t19356)
MP (t20140)
CO (t18855)
Button (t12236)
Hero (SB) (t19919)
Hero’s M: 30.18

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, K
4 folds, Hero bets t1020, BB calls t680

Flop: (t2190) 9, 2, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets t1333, BB raises to t3125, Hero raises to t18874 (All-In), BB calls t9341 (All-In)

Turn: (t27122) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t27122) A (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t27122

Results:
Hero had 8, K (one pair, twos).
BB had A, 9 (two pair, Aces and nines).
Outcome: BB won t27122

This is just such a perfect spot for a bluff raise on the flop (I have a wide range, this is a tough flop for either of us to hit, and the stack sizes don’t give me many options even if I don’t believe him). Although I was new to the table and didn’t recognize his screenname, I did have some reason to think he was capable of making plays: he 3-bet me on his button at the first opportunity.

When dealing with an essentially unknown villain, though, shoving any two is not the best way to proceed. I can minimize exploitability by bluff shoving hands that will have the best equity vs. his calling range: draws, hands that paired the board, and even two overcards. Shoving something as weak as K8 makes me easily exploitable by a strategy this guy may well be employing, which is only raising when he has a hand good enough to call a shove. And naturally in a spot where he ought to be raising a huge range he has managed to flop top pair top kicker. AKDHAKLSFHSKLFHASFKH