Posts Tagged ‘bluff catching’

This hand is a good example of being aware of your own range and what your hand will look like to Villain. I had recently folded to a triple barrel from this same Villain, who generally exhibits very aggressive tendencies. I had no idea whether that history would make him more or less likely to try to bluff me here.

Consequently, I made the decision to call down based on the fact that the board came out very badly for my range. I think Villain would (correctly) expect me to bet flush draws on the flop, and the check-call probably indicates either a pair of T’s or a pocket pair to him. QT isn’t the absolute top of my range here- that would be something like AT or KdT, but it’s close enough to the top that I think it needs to be in my calling range against a Villain capable of triple barreling on a run-out that’s bad for my perceived range. The fact that draws missed on the river should also increase his bluffing frequency, as he may expect me to be on a pair + draw planning to fold if I don’t improve.  Read the complete post...

The first video in my new four-part series about HUD-based decision making and using statistics to exploit opponents has just gone live at Poker Savvy Plus. In conjunction with that, I’ve got a twist on the old “What’s Your Play?” series. In this hand, calling or folding are your only options, and it’s an extremely read-dependent decision.

Take a look at the hand, and then sound off on the question I’ve got for you at the end:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($1570)
MP ($1124)
Button ($2200)
Hero (SB) ($1000)
BB ($1017)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, K
3 folds, Hero bets $40, BB calls $30

Flop: ($80) 6, 8, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $55, BB calls $55

Turn: ($190) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $150, Hero calls $150

River: ($490) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $772 (All-In)

Suppose that you were going to have to make this decision. I tell you that he is a winning regular at these stakes, and I offer to give you just ONE of the following statistics that I have on him, based on a sample size of 397 hands played in 6-max games. Which would you choose and why?  Read the complete post...

Villain is a pretty good regular. He also plays higher and is well above average for the stakes. We’ve tangled a fair bit in the recent past and have some aggressive history. I believe his turn raising range to be disproportionately semi-bluffs, possibly with as little as a gutshot but probably not with air or a pair. Obviously the more standard line would just be to shove the turn, but I decided to call and try to induce a bluff on the river.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP) ($563)
CO ($186.75)
Button ($863.60)
SB ($400)
BB ($447)
UTG ($406)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, 8
1 fold, Hero bets $14, 1 fold, Button calls $14, 2 folds

Flop: ($34) 8, A, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $26, Button calls $26

Turn: ($86) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $68, Button raises to $200, Hero calls $132

River: ($486) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $623.60 (All-In), Hero calls $323 (All-In)

Total pot: $1132 | Rake: $3

Even though I called the turn to induce a river bluff, I think it’s a tough decision on this particular card.

Arguments in favor of calling:

1. I took a line designed to induce a bluff.  Read the complete post...

My latest poker strategy article, Bluff Catching, is now appearing in the June issue of the 2+2 Internet Magazine. Here’s the hypothetical that kicks off the discussion:

I had a nightmare last night that I was playing high-stakes heads up no-limit hold ‘em with Phil Ivey himself. I knew he had picked up a tell on me that revealed the approximate strength of my hand as strong, marginal, or weak, but I didn’t know what it was or how to stop doing it.

The river had just completed a possible flush, and the final board read 5 8 T Q 2 . I was holding A T and checked. Phil gave me that look, like he’d just spotted my tell, and then announced, “All in.” The dealer counted the bet down: $14,000 even, into a pot of just $6,000. Somehow, I managed to have the Great One covered. But could I call this bet?

Hope you like it- please let me know what you think!

…because sometimes, you aren’t bluffing:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($14268.50)
Hero (SB) ($4179.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, Q
Hero bets $60, BB calls $40

Flop: ($120) K, J, J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $77, BB calls $77

Turn: ($274) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($274) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $210, Hero calls $210

Total pot: $694 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 7, Q (one pair, Jacks).
BB had Q, 9 (one pair, Jacks).
Outcome: BB won $693.50

Although I didn’t recognize his name, this guy played very well, and it didn’t take me long to quit him. He’d been making a lot of good, thin value check-raises on dry flops like this, and he very rarely folded them. Thus, I thought his flop call represented either very marginal showdown value or a float with the intention of bluffing the river. Turns out it was both, which is really as it should be. I think he doesn’t turn Ax into a bluff on the river, which is why I call with Q-high, but I think this is exactly the right way for him to play Q9.

This isn’t going to work against a lot of opponents, but against very tough opponents, it’s essential:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP) ($4429.50)
CO ($7120)
Button ($2587)
SB ($4449.30)
BB ($4169)
UTG ($712.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 4, 4
UTG calls $20, Hero bets $90, 1 fold, Button calls $90, 2 folds, UTG calls $70

Flop: ($300) 3, 4, 6 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $187, Button calls $187, 1 fold

Turn: ($674) J (2 players)
Hero bets $444, Button calls $444

River: ($1562) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1225, Hero calls $1225

Total pot: $4012 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 6, 7 (one pair, sixes).
Hero had 4, 4 (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: Hero won $4009

This guy isn’t calling the turn with a bare draw, so I’m not too concerned about him having the flush. He could have a big draw, something like Ah5h, that he chose to “slowplay”, or maybe a flush with the Jh, but I don’t think he has a flush too often. His most likely hand is something marginal with showdown value, either a bare pair that was bluff catching or a pair plus draw.  Read the complete post...

I recently made another appearance on Cardplayer’s “Run It Twice” feature, discussing a hand that regular blog readers will recognize:

“I just don’t think he’s telling a consistent story on the turn and the river. On the river, now, all of a sudden he wants me to believe that he does have a monster hand and he wants to put all of the money in, so much so that he’s willing to bet more than the pot. So, on the river, all of a sudden he’s saying, “I want to play a huge pot,” and that’s not at all what he was saying on the turn.”

It’s just a transcript of a phone conversation, so it reads kinda rambly, but other than that I think I came out pretty well.

This hand from the 2+2 high-stakes multi-table tournament forum got me thinking about what it means to be “at the top” of a polarized range. Here’s a quick summary, for those who can’t/won’t follow the link:

It’s a tournament, and blinds are 100/200. Hero raises to 475 UTG with KK, and good loose aggressive regular calls out of the SB. The flop comes Qd 4s 9d. SB checks, Hero bets 625, Villain calls.

The turn is the 4d, pairing the board and putting three diamonds out.  Both players check. (I don’t think it matters much, because the turn decision isn’t the important thing here, but Hero has the Kd.)

The river is the 4h, giving Hero Kings full of Fours. Villain checks, Hero bets 1400 into a 2300 pot, and Villain shoves for 11080. Hero has him covered.

Most of the forum seemed to think this was a call, and in many cases not a particularly close one. To me, it’s a clear fold.

Not everyone articulated it this way, but the general sense seemed to be that a pair of K’s is at the top of Hero’s range, and that folding hands at the top of your range isn’t what you do against a LAG.  Read the complete post...