Posts Tagged ‘bluff’

Today’s question comes from a comment on last week’s “What’s Your Play?” The relevant details are that Hero is in the SB with AQs facing a raise from a loose-passive player in early position and a call from a possible scared money player in late position. It’s early in the PCA main event, and everyone is deep-stacked.

Q: I was wondering if you had considered 3b pre? You’re going to have the worst position in the hand going forward. You’ll also have the worst relative position since villain 1 isn’t going to lead the betting to often being passive. I think you get the button to fold a bunch and you get heads up, granted in a bloated pot, but vs a passive player where I’d think you get to show down easier with 1p hands.

A: The short answer is yes, I did consider it. Really, though, if you 3-bet, what are you hoping will happen? You’ll have to fold to a 4-bet, so that’s a bad outcome. Even if you’re called, you won’t be eager to play a big pot if you flop top pair. A passive player’s early position raising range is pretty strong, and it gets stronger once he calls a 3-bet. I think it’s safe to assume neither of these players continues with AJ or KQ, which means that your AQ won’t dominate anything in their calling ranges. If called, you’ll be hoping either to bluff or to flop some value and check it down, maybe squeeze out a value bet. It’s not a disaster, but it’s not a great outcome either.  Read the complete post...

The wait is over! I’m flattered by everyone who’s been asking about this. Part 1 of my PCA Trip Report is now appearing in 2+2 Magazine. Part 2 will be in next month’s magazine. Here’s a snippet from one of the more interesting hands I played:

Saskatchewan limped UTG again, Belgium limped behind, and I raised to 1,000 with A4o in the CO. This raise really blurs the line between “value” and “making a move”, since I do expect to win often with a continuation bet but I also think A4 is ahead of both of their ranges. Essentially I’ve got position and the best hand, so even though it might be tricky to play post-flop, I don’t see how raising can be bad. Saskatchewan joked about how “you internet guys don’t allow limping” and called, and Belgium called as well. They both checked a K83 rainbow, I bet 1,600, Saskatchewan folded, and Belgium quickly raised to 5,100. I was sure he was making a move, so I considered my options.

This trip report focuses almost exclusively on the poker. If you want to read about the rest of the trip, check out Hello, Goodbye, Team Online.

As always, please let me know what you think!

This week’s WYP is a little different, in that I don’t have a strong opinion about what’s best. I was actually hoping some of you smart people could help me out there, in particular with regard to how V2′s question and timing on the turn influences his range. My own, possibly results-oriented thinking was that it might weight him towards weaker draws. With a flush draw or open-ended draw, I think he might call without really thinking about it. If he’s asking, that could weight him towards gutshots or something like an 8 that has a chance of being good (in his eyes – no one’s saying he’s a great hand reader) plus some outs to improve. I also thought Gareth’s suggestion was interesting that V2′s indecision may have been “between calling/raising with a hand like 86s”.

I say I may be results oriented because I bet 3000, V1 sighed and folded, and V2 called with Jh 8h.

Value Betting

As many of you identified, Hero is very likely to have the best hand on the river. The question, however is not only how but whether he can get value from it. Especially in multi-way pots, where people tend to be more tight and passive, it can be difficult to get value from medium-strength hands.  Read the complete post...

This is really the second WYP from the PCA, but the first was technically a “What’s Your Plan?”, and I couldn’t think of a catchier name for this one. It takes during Level 2 of the tournament, with blinds of 75/150 and effective stacks of well over 20K (I forget how much exactly but it wasn’t relevant for the hand).

Hero: It’s me. Late 20′s, wearing a PokerStars Team Online patch and sunglasses, not saying much but friendly when I do happen my mouth. I’ve been quiet so far and recently showed down KK in a 3-bet pot.

Villain 1: Middle-aged Canadian, recreational player, on the loose-passive side. He limps more than he raises in early position.

Villain 2: Young Spanish kid, maybe 22 at the oldest. This is likely one of the biggest events he’s played, as he’s giving off a bit of a “scared money”-vibe.

Villain 1 opens to 450 in early position, Villain 2 calls in the CO, and Hero calls with As Qs in the SB. The flop came Qd 8c 2h and checks all the way around. Hero bets 900 on a 6c turn, Villain 1 quickly calls, and Villain 2 asks how much, thinks for 15-20 seconds, and calls.  Read the complete post...

 Thanks to everyone who commented on this week’s “What’s Your Play?” Sorry for the delay in getting results up; I’m currently visiting old friends and a new baby in New York, and the days have been busy.

We’ll start with the results:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 320 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 50 Ante (8 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t24118)
SB (t25330)
BB (t9032)
UTG (t8323)
UTG+1 (t25215)
MP1 (t13846)
Hero (MP2) (t16901)
CO (t31444)

Hero’s M: 16.90

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A♦, 4♥
3 folds, Hero bets t800, 1 fold, Button calls t800, 2 folds

Flop: (t2600) 4♦, 4♠, K♥ (2 players)
Hero bets t1666, Button raises to t3640, Hero calls t1974

Turn: (t9880) 10♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: (t9880) 7♦ (2 players)
Hero bets t12411 (All-In), Button calls t12411

Total pot: t34702

Results:
Button had K♦, Q♦ (two pair, Kings and fours).
Hero had A♦, 4♥ (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: Hero won t34702

As many commenters identified, the crux of this hand is in recognizing that Hero’s hand looks reasonably strong after calling the flop raise. Many of you made compelling arguments for 3-betting the flop, which I’ll come back to in a moment.  Read the complete post...

Today’s mailbag question comes from a comment on the What’s Your Plan? Flopped Pair and Draw: Results post. It was a good question that I felt warranted a thorough response.

Q: Though honestly I agree with what you wrote I just wonder since “Villain is a young online MTT wizard: highly ranked on Pocket Fives, tons of success” we know (and he might not know we know) that he knows he can bet anything and probably get a fold tons of the time because he can have AK and it is much harder for other people to (especially when they don’t check raise the flop). As soon as we call I think Villain needs to become super cautious. Against anyone else I insta fold k10. I actually thought this example was how to outplay a wizard but I was wrong. : -) I guess I leveled myself!

A: If I understand you correctly, you’re asking whether Villain couldn’t bluff this flop with a really wide range since he can represent nutted hands (not only AK but sets as well) more easily than we can. This would be more of a consideration in a heads up pot.  Read the complete post...

Villain is an unremarkable tournament grinder, probably a modest winner. I don’t know much about him, nor do I know what if anything he thinks of me. This is on PokerStars, so I do have my Team Online avatar which occasionally entices people to do crazy things, though I’ve got no specific reason to think that that’s a factor here. There’s no important history or table dynamic between us.

Poker Stars – $300+20 Tournament (#435011043) – Blinds: 200/400 +50 Ante, No Limit Hold’em (8 players)
Poker Stars Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: t25,330
BB: t9,032
UTG: t8,323
UTG+1: t25,215
MP: t13,846
MP+1 Hero: t16,901
CO: t31,444
BTN: t24,118

Pre-flop: (t600) Hero is MP+1 and dealt Ad 4h
3 folds, Hero raises to t800, CO folds, BTN calls t800, BB folds

Flop: (t2,200) 4d 4s Kh (2 players)
Hero bets t1,666, BTN raises to t3,640, Hero calls t1,974

Turn: (t9,480) 4d 4s Kh Ts (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (t9,480) 4d 4s Kh Ts 7d (2 players)

Hero has a little over 12K left in his stack, and Villain covers. What’s your play? Anything you’d do differently on earlier streets? I’ll post my thoughts and comments on or about Friday morning.

Judging from the number of comments, folks found this WYP less compelling than someone. That’s to your credit, because as many commenters advocated, I believe folding the flop is correct. Dangerhorse explains why:

I would probably fold although the pot odds are enticing and your hand (a pair and a draw) superficially seems very strong. This is a super wet board and a good player should not be leading into three opponents without something very substantial. I put him on KQ, AQ and stronger. If you raise all-in, I don’t think he folds much. I also don’t think you have the full 13 outs that a pair-and-an-OESD normally does.

Assuming you call, if your draw comes in, with an ace or a nine, it’s going to be a super-scary board, and it’s going to be tough to get paid off, especially being out of position. On top of that, your opponent will often also have a king, so you may well chop even if your draw comes in – or lose to AK.

Not all pair + draws are created equally. On a board like this, where so many draws are likely, it matters a lot that you have the worst pair and are drawing exclusively to non-nut hands. Out of position in a multi-way pot with action from a good player in early position, you can’t afford to treat this as a strong hand.  Read the complete post...