What Are You Afraid Of?

foucault — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 12:58:05 +0000

My latest poker strategy article, What Are You Afraid Of?, is now appearing in the July 2011 edition of the 2+2 Magazine. The article uses a single hand to look at a larger point about game theory and exploitability:

Being “underrepresented” or “too weak” are not bad things in and of themselves. And before acting on feelings like these, you should articulate exactly how they could end up costing money. In other words, what would your opponent need to do to take advantage of this “mistake” that you are considering?

I’m always curious to know what you think, so please read the full article and leave me a comment!

I’m Off the Wagon

foucault — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:18:28 +0000

My tournaments results have been pretty good the last few months, culminating most recently in two PCA seats and a win in the FTP $300 Saturday 6-Max. I attribute this improvement to a disciplined effort to avoid bringing the aggressive play needed to win in high-stakes cash games over to a tournament setting where my opponents are far more passive and far less tricky.

Last night, in the $300 rebuy FTOPS event, I was rolling along nicely and then fell off the wagon:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 170/340 Blinds 25 Ante (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t13511)
UTG (t19356)
MP (t20140)
CO (t18855)
Button (t12236)
Hero (SB) (t19919)
Hero’s M: 30.18

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, K
4 folds, Hero bets t1020, BB calls t680

Flop: (t2190) 9, 2, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets t1333, BB raises to t3125, Hero raises to t18874 (All-In), BB calls t9341 (All-In)

Turn: (t27122) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t27122) A (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t27122

Results:
Hero had 8, K (one pair, twos).
BB had A, 9 (two pair, Aces and nines).
Outcome: BB won t27122

This is just such a perfect spot for a bluff raise on the flop (I have a wide range, this is a tough flop for either of us to hit, and the stack sizes don’t give me many options even if I don’t believe him). Although I was new to the table and didn’t recognize his screenname, I did have some reason to think he was capable of making plays: he 3-bet me on his button at the first opportunity.

When dealing with an essentially unknown villain, though, shoving any two is not the best way to proceed. I can minimize exploitability by bluff shoving hands that will have the best equity vs. his calling range: draws, hands that paired the board, and even two overcards. Shoving something as weak as K8 makes me easily exploitable by a strategy this guy may well be employing, which is only raising when he has a hand good enough to call a shove. And naturally in a spot where he ought to be raising a huge range he has managed to flop top pair top kicker. AKDHAKLSFHSKLFHASFKH

Thinking Poker » exploitable

What Are You Afraid Of?

I’m Off the Wagon