Now through the end of 2018, I’m offering 25% off custom strategy videos when you purchase two hours or more. That’s two hours for just $150!

Get the most out of your poker study time with a poker strategy videos custom-tailored to your needs. If you play online, I can review a database or hand history for you, identify your specific leaks, and suggest study material to help you plug them. Even if you don’t play online, I can review hand histories from live play, answer your questions thoroughly, and help you focus your independent study on the most important topics for your improvement.

You can find more details and a full-length sample video at https://www.thinkingpoker.net/coaching/poker-coaching-programs/custom-video-review/. To purchase your videos, comment here or email andrew at thinkingpoker dot net.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
8:32 – Strategy
22:46 – Interview

Strategy

The hand comes from a $400 buy-in WSOP circuit event at Foxwoods. We are nearly at the bubble. 56 players remain and 54 make the money. The blinds are $2,500 – $5,000 with a $5,000 big blind ante. I’m on the button with AK offsuit and about 130k in chips. It folds to the highjack who has about 700k chips. I don’t have any reads, but he is the biggest stack at the table. He raises to 20k. I fold.

Timestamps

0:30 hello
3:07 danny sprung (featuring strategy)

Strategy

1st hand after 1st break, I have Red Kings. I raise UTG, and am 3 bet by a straightforward player. We are 100BB deep at this point. I call.

Flop T63 Rainbow, we both check.

Turn is Jd, bringing backdoor diamond draw. I bet 1/2 pot and Villain raised.

_________

I open EP, Villain 3-bets, and I flat call AKdd.

The flop was a spectacular Kh4d2d, I checked, Villain continued, and I made a very big check raise.

Timestamps

0:30 hello
24:19 strategy

Links

Bundyville
Stone Mattress
Underworld

Strategy

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/28666025_17A2638EF1

HH below for those who can’t open Boomplayer.

PokerStars Hand #190740522966: Tournament #2378947329, $500+$500+$50 USD Hold’em No Limit – Level VIII (500/1000) – 2018/09/06 15:38:54 ET
Table ‘2378947329 32’ 8-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: MrSweets28 (151471 in chips, $1000 bounty)
Seat 2: twirlpro (103945 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 3: ThePateychuk (33893 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 4: flavioreis88 (32690 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 5: dlanger610 (21467 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 6: foucault82 (106373 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 7: gremistaAK (61218 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 8: abarone68 (40999 in chips, $750 bounty)
MrSweets28: posts the ante 125
twirlpro: posts the ante 125
ThePateychuk: posts the ante 125
flavioreis88: posts the ante 125
dlanger610: posts the ante 125
foucault82: posts the ante 125
gremistaAK: posts the ante 125
abarone68: posts the ante 125
flavioreis88: posts small blind 500
dlanger610: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to foucault82 [Ah Kh]
foucault82: raises 1222 to 2222
gremistaAK: raises 4778 to 7000
abarone68: folds
MrSweets28: raises 9500 to 16500
twirlpro: folds
ThePateychuk: folds
flavioreis88: folds
dlanger610: folds
foucault82: calls 14278
gremistaAK: calls 9500
*** FLOP *** [6c 5c 3s]
foucault82: checks
gremistaAK: checks
MrSweets28: bets 12500
foucault82: calls 12500
gremistaAK: folds
*** TURN *** [6c 5c 3s] [2d]
foucault82: checks
MrSweets28: checks
*** RIVER *** [6c 5c 3s 2d] [6h]
foucault82: bets 77248 and is all-in
MrSweets28: folds
Uncalled bet (77248) returned to foucault82
foucault82 collected 77000 from pot
foucault82: doesn’t show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 77000 | Rake 0
Board [6c 5c 3s 2d 6h]
Seat 1: MrSweets28 folded on the River
Seat 2: twirlpro folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 3: ThePateychuk (button) folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 4: flavioreis88 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: dlanger610 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: foucault82 collected (77000)
Seat 7: gremistaAK folded on the Flop
Seat 8: abarone68 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
4:25 Strategy

Strategy

$0.50/$1 NLHE, $400 effective stacks

Y straddles UTG to $3.50. Z opens to $12 UTG+2 with As 3s. BN calls, Z calls JJ.

Flop ($37.50) K62ss. Y checks, Z bets $30, BN folds, Y calls.

Turn ($97.50) Js. Y checks, Z checks.

River ($97.50) 6d. Y bets $60, Z raises to $150, Y shoves $350, Z calls.

Bloch discussed Full Tilt Poker and Black Friday at length with Diamond Flush Poker. We discussed the subject, and The Lederer Files, with Matt Parvis on Episode 7.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
11:48 – Strategy
34:40 – Andy Bloch

Timestamps

0:30 hello
23:50 strat
45:32 interview

Strategy

Our strategy discussion is a follow-up to Nate’s analysis of Phil Ivey’s bustout hand from the 2018 WSOP Main Event on Episode 264.

Our first interview with Clayton was Episode 74. We discussed his 96th place finish in the 2015 Main Event on Episode 145. And in 2017, we talked about how he prepares for the WSOP on Episode 216.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
25:25 – strat

Strategy

Sorry, you’re on your own. I’m on vacation!

Timestamps

0:30 hello
10:56 strat

Strategy Hand 1

On the bubble, CO (16K) opens to 5k. Hero calls T9dd in the BB.
Flop (13K) AQJd. Hero checks, Villain bets 5k, Hero calls.
Turn (23K) 6. Both check.
River (23) 3. Hero shoves for 6K, Villain folds.

Strategy Hand 2

Blinds 5K/10K/1K. SB (500K) open limps, Hero (1.2M) raises to 30K with AdQh, SB calls
Flop (68K) 542cc. SB checks, Hero bets 20K, Villain raises to 75K, Hero calls.
Turn Qs. SB bets 135K, Hero shoves 270K more, SB calls A3.

0:30 Hello & Welcome
54:53 Strategy

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
6:53 – Zach Elwood
56:27 – Strategy

Timestamps

0:30 – NOT hello and welcome
52:33 – Strategy

Strategy Hand 1

Blinds are 600-1200 with a 100 ante, and we have 24,500 in our stack pre-flop (so 20BB). SB completes, and I look down at KcKd. Villain’s stack is 24,000. Hero checks.

Pot (3100) Effective Stacks (22,700)

Flop is: 9s4d3c

Villain leads for 2000. Hero raises to 4700. Villain shoves for 20,700. We have to call 16,000 to win 30,500.

Strategy Hand 2

I am in the button. 3 limpers to me. I had 17,200 and QTo (no spade).

The level is 800/1600 with 200 antes.

With 11 BB, I limped behind. The blinds came along and we had a 6 way pot.

The flop was Ts 9s 6x (pot: 11,400)

It checked to the main Villian who bet 3,000. Hero calls, the rest fold.

The turn came a brick – I noted it as 4x although it could have been a 3x or 2x.

Villian leads for 4K.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
8:08 – strategy

Strategy Hand 1

Effective stack: 22K

Blinds: 300/600, 100 ante

I was under the gun with pocket tens and raised to 1500. I was called by a guy who looked to be in his mid twenties, an middle aged guy on the button, and an older gentleman directly to my right in the big blind.

Pre-flop Pot: 7300

Flop comes Kd/8h/10h. The bb checks to me and I bet 2500. The two callers fold and the bb calls.

Flop Pot: 12,300

The turn was a 2 of clubs. BB checks, I bet 4500. He calls.

Turn Pot: 21,300

The river was a 9 of diamonds. He thought for about 20 seconds and then bet 5K.

Strategy Hand 2

$2/$5 NL. I open raise in mp to $20 with JdJh. One caller on button.

Flop JcQh2s

I bet $35, he calls.

$111 in pot, turn comes 9c. I bet $65, he raises to $200 total, I call.

$511 in the pot, river is a 5d.

I check. He bets $200.

In the strategy segment, Andrew address tangling with the chipleader and making thin value bets at the final table (or rather, about not doing those things).

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
6:12 – Strategy
25:34 – Josh Nixon

Strategy

Six players remain at a final table. Payouts are:
$4000
$2700
$2000
$1460
$1020
$900

Stacks:
LJ 360K
HJ 273
Hero (CO) 558K
BN 393K
SB 231K
Ian Simpson (BB) 749K

Blinds 4500/9000/1125
Hero opens 22,500 in the CO with Qs 5s.

Flop (56K in pot) Js 4c 5h
BB checks, Hero bets 22,500, BB calls.

Turn (101K in pot) 2c
Both check.

River (101K in pot) 7h
Villain checks. Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
3:47 Strategy
21:46 Helen Ellis

Strategy

1/2 NL

Villain straddles, I raise AdQd to $16 from MP and get 2 callers, Villain raises to $40.

I look at his stack and see what looks like $60ish in red with a $100 bill. I call, other two fold.

Flop AsKc6s (pot $112)

Checks to me and I bet $70. He raises all in and I learn he has two hundred dollar bills and it’s $140 more to me…

Timestamps

0:30 Hello
8:24 strat
34:35 – dick pt 1

Strategy

Winning Poker Network Game #1128438874: No Limit Holdem ($0.05/$0.10) [2018/02/20 01:29:56 UTC]

Table: (PRR) Dilong – 4
Seats: 9
Seat 2: kingsilence ($17.70)
Seat 3: eko4gg ($4)
Seat 4: BigGigantic ($17.83)
Seat 6: golfboyseven ($19.02)
Seat 7: SecretSquirrel ($12.21)
Seat 8: riffjax ($17.30)
Seat 9: gazayute ($12.74)
Button is seat 6
SecretSquirrel: posts small blind $0.05
riffjax: posts big blind $0.10

*** HOLE CARDS ***
riffjax: dealt [Ah Kc]
gazayute: folds
kingsilence: folds
eko4gg: folds
BigGigantic: folds
golfboyseven: folds
SecretSquirrel: raises $0.15
riffjax: raises $0.50
SecretSquirrel: calls $0.40

*** FLOP *** [3d 4c 5h]
SecretSquirrel: checks
riffjax: bets $0.57
SecretSquirrel: raises $1.14
riffjax: calls $0.57

*** TURN *** [3d 4c 5h] [As]
SecretSquirrel: checks
riffjax: bets $1.65
SecretSquirrel: calls $1.65

*** RIVER *** [3d 4c 5h] [As] [9c]
SecretSquirrel: raises all-in $8.82
riffjax ??

Part One is now live, and the rest should be going up over the course of the next week or so.

If you’re not yet a Tournament Poker Edge member, let this be your impetus to sign up!

Timestamps

0:30 hello
9:35 strat
51:43 extra strat

Strategy

Hand 1 – 3/5 NL

Couple of limps, CO raises to $25, BN calls, Hero calls Ah 6h in the SB, one MP limper calls.

Ac 2h Ks. Checks to CO who bets $55, BN folds, Hero calls, MP calls.

8h ($280 in pot). Checks to CO, CO bets $125, Hero calls, MP calls.

8d ($655 in pot). Checks to CO who bets $285. Hero?

Hand 2 – Tournament, effective stacks 35bb

CO opens 2.5bb, Hero calls 9d 8d in the SB.

9s 5h 4d (8.5b in pot). Checks to CO, who bets 9bb. Hero calls.

5s (26.5bb in pot). Both check.

Js (26.5bb in pot). Check, CO shoves, Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
34:19 – strat

Strategy

Hand 1

Hand 2

Hero opens to $35 with 8d 7d UTG, called by MP and BB.

Flop ($105) AQ6dd. BB checks, Hero bets $50, BB calls.

Turn ($205) 2c. BB checks, Hero bets $200, B calls.

River ($605) 9h. BB checks, Hero shoves ~$900.

The Washington Post ran a story about Jamal shortly after his commutation.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
5:50 – Strategy
35:35 – Interview: Jamal Hanson

Strategy

This is 2-3 NLH game (9 handed). There is a $6 straddle for this hand. It’s folded to me in middle position and I raise to $17 with the KdQh. The button calls and the straddle calls. Effective stacks are $300.

Flop: KhJc6d

Straddler checks, I bet $30 into the $50 pot. Button calls and the straddler folds.

Turn: KhJc6d 9d

I check The button quickly bets $60 into $110. I call.

River: KhJc6d 9d 10s

Hero?

Strategy

Hand 1

100 BB effective stacks 

Dealt to Hero: Ks Ts

UTG folds, Hero (MP) raises to 3BB, Villain (CO) calls, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds.

Flop: Qh 6s 4s (7.5BB)

Hero bets 5BB, Villain calls.

Turn: Td (17.5BB)

Hero checks, Villain bets 13BB, Hero calls.

River: Qs (43.5 BB)

Hero… checks?, Villain bets 27BB, Hero…? 

Hand 2

I have JdJc UTG+1. 

Folds to me and I raise to 15.Folds to main villain in CO who flats, SB folds, BB flats.

Flop ($50) 9c 7d 4s: SB checks, I bet $35, CO thinks not too long before calling, SB calls $35.

Turn ($155) 8h: BB checks, I check, CO seems like he’s about to check then grabs a stack of reds, counts $85 and pushes it forward. BB folds. I call.

River ($325) 3d: I check, CO bets $175.

My interview with Christian Soto provided all of that at a critical moment, coming just hours after one of the more frustrating poker experiences of the year. By chance, we’d been seated next to each other late on Day 2 of the WPT Main Event at Maryland Live! After crushing for much of the day, I made a critical mistake and lost more than I should have with AK vs AA, which resulted in a smaller cash than I’d anticipated. Talking through and laughing about the day’s events with Christian was great fun and great medicine, and judging from the audience response, it seems to have made for a great listen as well.

Happy new year everyone! Thanks for spending some of 2017 with us, and we look forward to sharing more great poker stories with you in the year to come.

If you aren’t familiar with Carlos, you can hear his full story starting with our first interview on Episode 39. You can follow Carlos on twitter @HipHop101Trivia and watch him stream live on Twitch.

Timestamps

0:30 Carlos Welch
32:40 Carloose Welch (strategy)

Strategy

8-handed NLHE tournament online, blinds 400/800/80. UTG (29K) limps, SB (5K) completes, Hero (35K) raises to 2400 with Ks Jc, UTG calls, SB folds.

Flop (6240) 7c 4s 2d. Hero bets 3120, Villain calls.

Turn (12480) 9s. Hero bets 5240, Villain calls.

River (24960) 8h. Hero shoves 17K effective, Villain folds.

The great thing about this kind of review is that the hand examples come from the smaller stakes tournaments that most members play, which provides plenty of opportunity to talk about what does and doesn’t work against those kinds of opponents.

If you’re not already a member, this is a great time to sign up and get access to this plus dozens of my other videos and hundreds more from other instructors!

Oh and do check out the KL Cleeton interview if you haven’t already, it’s one of my favorites from this year!t

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello and Welcome
4:12 – Andrew Thierrault
72:00 – Strategy

Strategy

$150 NLH WSOP Circuit event at the Bike, Dec 2015.

Near the end of level 8 (300/600 + 75 ante), I was UTG 8-handed with about a starting stack (10.7k) I raise to 1500 with Jd Jc. Folds around to BB, who calls.

With 3.9k in the pot, flop comes Kh 8d 4h. Villain checks, I check.

Still with 3.9k in the pot, turn is another 4, and Villain checks again. I bet 2k, Villain raises to 5k, I call.

With 13.9k in the pot, river is a third 4, and Villain checks once more. Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
3:49 – strat
33:19 – peter

Strategy

Hero ($280) has AsQh UTG, opens to $10. 3 callers, including Villain on the button.

Flop comes Ad4c2c. Pot is $35 after rake. Checks to Villain who bets $25, Hero calls, rest fold.

Turn is Kc. Pot is $85. Hero checks to Villain who bets $50. Hero calls.

River is 9s. Pot is $185. Hero checks to Villain who jams which would put Hero all-in for remaining $195.

Fortunately Luis was willing and able to take a train out from the city to come visit for the weekend! Emily found a great French restaurant in Val David where we had an excellent meal. Even Luis was impressed by it, and he used to work at one of the best French restaurants in Montreal! One of the best according to him, that is – when he told the owner of La Table Des Gourmets about his experience, she dismissed it as “merely a bistro”.

Anyway, it was great to see him, but the end of WCOOP was otherwise quite anti-climactic. Emily and I dropped Luis off at the train station and returned in time for me to late register the $1050. I played a total of five hands and promptly busted AQs < ATo.

The $530 was even less remarkable, I chipped up a bit and eventually lost AJ to 99.

And the Main Event, well… I played two bullets and never won a pot larger 6000 chips. This is probably one of the more interesting losses. TBH I almost just folded the flop:

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9h Kh
fold, UTG+1 raises to 2.06 BB, fold, MP+1 calls 2.06 BB, MP+2 calls 2.06 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.06 BB, fold, BB calls 1.06 BB

Flop : (11.92 BB, 5 players) Jc Kd 9s
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP+1 bets 5.96 BB, fold, Hero calls 5.96 BB, fold, fold

Turn : (23.85 BB, 2 players) 7h
MP+1 bets 11.93 BB, fold

MP+1 wins 23.85 BB

To learn more from Christian you can follow @ChristianSoto08 on Twitter and sign up for his I’ll Name This Strategy Later II seminar.

PokerStars – 175/350 Ante 45 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BB): 183.45 BB
UTG: 165.5 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
UTG+1: 129.36 BB (VPIP: 25.42, PFR: 19.64, 3Bet Preflop: 10.71, Hands: 60)
MP: 145.31 BB (VPIP: 18.34, PFR: 14.11, 3Bet Preflop: 8.91, Hands: 574)
MP+1: 158.17 BB (VPIP: 15.91, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 44)
MP+2: 142.54 BB (VPIP: 5.26, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
CO: 115.69 BB (VPIP: 17.36, PFR: 10.95, 3Bet Preflop: 6.61, Hands: 481)
BTN: 131.73 BB (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 15.91, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 44)
SB: 70.86 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.66 BB) Hero has Kh Kc
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12.35 BB, CO calls 9.35 BB

Flop : (26.35 BB, 2 players) Jd Qh 8d
Hero bets 13.17 BB, CO calls 13.17 BB

Turn : (52.7 BB, 2 players) Tc
Hero bets 26.35 BB, CO calls 26.35 BB

River : (105.39 BB, 2 players) Ks
Hero bets 131.45 BB and is all-in, CO calls 63.69 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Kh Kc (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 67%, Flop 55%, Turn 77%)

CO shows Ad 3d (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 33%, Flop 45%, Turn 23%)

CO wins 232.77 BB

Villain was a world-class player, and I hated this spot from the flop.

My plan after the turn was actually to barrel off as a bluff, as I think I have way more AK in my range than Villain, and although KK could be good, it often won’t be and will be tough to showdown when it is.

Then I had to change course again on the river. In the moment I decided that I didn’t want to check-fold for a good deal less than a pot-sized bet, so I might as well shove for thin value. I remember thinking “just about the only Ace he can have is Ax of diamonds”. But in retrospect there are a good number of those, and Villain has some 9x as well which means he probably doesn’t need to call with hands I beat. So yeah, in retrospect I think I should have check-folded.

As for the $109, I ultimately busted in 54th. Here’s a Day 2 hand I’m pretty happy about:

PokerStars – 50000/100000 Ante 12500 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 33.51 BB (VPIP: 19.06, PFR: 12.85, 3Bet Preflop: 3.79, Hands: 322)
MP: 20.39 BB (VPIP: 9.18, PFR: 7.37, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 98)
CO: 30.9 BB (VPIP: 29.58, PFR: 26.47, 3Bet Preflop: 15.00, Hands: 72)
BTN: 23.72 BB (VPIP: 23.26, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 8.24, Hands: 219)
SB: 36.51 BB (VPIP: 16.39, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 61)
Hero (BB): 14.88 BB
UTG: 14.22 BB (VPIP: 28.83, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 2.17, Hands: 112)

7 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.37 BB) Hero has 7d 4s
UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, MP calls 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop : (9.37 BB, 4 players) Tc 9h 6c
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks

Turn : (9.37 BB, 4 players) Td
Hero bets 2.81 BB, fold, fold, fold

Hero wins 9.37 BB

Pretty nice to increase stack by about 2/3 with no hand and very little risk!

I also ended up running quite deep in the Big $109 again (I came 3rd last week) but ultimately busted in 18th.

I got off to a good start in it but then lost AK to AK.

In the $215 PKO, I got quite ambitious in an early pot. I’m still not sure what to think of it – it’s so hard to decide how to value accumulation vs survival in these events. It doesn’t look great, but I think looking at each decision in a vacuum none seems bad to me.

Initially, I’ve got a pretty good hand and there’s a ton of money in the pot that I’d love to win immediately. I don’t think Villain’s 4-bet is that likely to be light, but it’s not impossible. Plus with all the dead money and the bounty on Villain, getting in AJ vs KK isn’t the end of the world anyway. Losing your chips early in a WCOOP sucks, but running up a big stack in a PKO has a lot more value than in a regular tournament because it enables you to chase bounties.

PokerStars – 150/300 Ante 40 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 139.08 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
MP+1: 115.54 BB (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 12.63, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 96)
MP+2: 185.11 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
CO: 151.38 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
Hero (BTN): 164.16 BB
SB: 137.6 BB (VPIP: 21.01, PFR: 14.03, 3Bet Preflop: 6.37, Hands: 562)
BB: 190.93 BB (VPIP: 21.59, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 88)
UTG: 158.31 BB (VPIP: 26.11, PFR: 15.84, 3Bet Preflop: 15.46, Hands: 204)
UTG+1: 166.27 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has Jd Ac
UTG raises to 2.5 BB, UTG+1 calls 2.5 BB, MP calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 12.59 BB, fold, fold, UTG raises to 34 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 164.03 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 124.18 BB and is all-in

Flop : (326.56 BB, 2 players) 2s 6h 4s

Turn : (326.56 BB, 2 players) Qd

River : (326.56 BB, 2 players) 6c

UTG shows Ks Kc (Two Pair, Kings and Sixes)
(Pre 71%, Flop 87%, Turn 93%)

Hero shows Jd Ac (One Pair, Sixes)
(Pre 29%, Flop 13%, Turn 7%)

UTG wins 326.56 BB

The Sunday Million was frustrating. I kept getting into bad spots with big pairs, where it felt like I didn’t have any great options. This was the worst: https://www.boomplayer.com/25291484_011D353AB9

Frankly, I’m surprised the SB was so light here (though he was Brazilian). Given that I’m essentially 3-betting into a dry sidepot, there’s just not that reason for me to be light, and I don’t think he has that much incentive to randomly 4-bet me. And then the 5-bet from UTG – obviously it’s hard to like the fold once i know the results, but in general my rule is to trust my gut when it tells me to hero fold, because that’s not usually what it tells me to do.

It probably didn’t help that I’d already been in a few spots where I at least suspected that I’d been coolered, including this one where I ran KK into AA: https://www.boomplayer.com/25289125_4ADA91F5DB.

All of that said, I did get two double-ups in spots where that required at least a little above the rim play: https://www.boomplayer.com/25287412_36769CB6FC and https://www.boomplayer.com/25291645_CBB5AA13F0.

In happier news, I made Day 2 of the $109 WCOOP-Low!

Plus, Nate makes a return to the show! And a strategy discussion about flopping a straight on a monotone board!

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello and Welcome
3:50 – Strategy
16:31 – Jose Pachon
24:49 – Nate’s back!

Strategy

UTG + 1, MP, CO, button, and SB limp. Hero checks 5h 4d in the BB.

The flop comes 367ddd. SB checks, Hero bets $20, UTG + 1, CO, and SB all call.

The turn comes the 7s. SB bets $25. Hero raises to $60, UTG + 1 raises to $250. Action gets folded back around to SB who calls instantly. Hero?

Saturday started early. Usually I deal with that by late registering, but the 7AM event was a progressive knock-out, and although Stars allows late registration in those, it’s a financial disaster to do so. So I figured I would play that and then see how I felt for the afternoon event.

It got off to a rough start. A guy put in a crazy amount with 22 against my AK, which wasn’t the end of the world since I covered him, but his pair held up so instead of getting his bounty I got short-stacked. I managed to make a recovery though (it’s easy to get your money in good as a short stack in a bounty event, because everyone else has incentive to call you very light) and after this extremely fun hand I had more chips than anyone else in the tournament (also on Boom if you’d rather watch the replay):

PokerStars – 1250/2500 Ante 325 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+2: 69.55 BB (VPIP: 19.40, PFR: 10.61, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, Hands: 67)
CO: 88.92 BB (VPIP: 13.75, PFR: 7.50, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, Hands: 81)
BTN: 17.37 BB (VPIP: 17.69, PFR: 4.65, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 131)
SB: 22.61 BB (VPIP: 26.74, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 16.28, Hands: 87)
Hero (BB): 166.42 BB
UTG: 85.05 BB (VPIP: 19.64, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 57)
UTG+1: 54.64 BB (VPIP: 17.95, PFR: 10.26, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 39)
MP: 51.98 BB (VPIP: 31.34, PFR: 19.08, 3Bet Preflop: 9.23, Hands: 136)
MP+1: 129.68 BB (VPIP: 17.61, PFR: 13.81, 3Bet Preflop: 10.48, Hands: 517)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.67 BB) Hero has 7c 9d
fold, fold, MP raises to 2.3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.3 BB

Flop : (6.27 BB, 2 players) Ts 9c Th
Hero checks, MP bets 2.32 BB, Hero raises to 5.59 BB, MP calls 3.27 BB

Turn : (17.46 BB, 2 players) 8h
Hero checks, MP bets 6.36 BB, Hero raises to 15.41 BB, MP calls 9.05 BB

River : (48.28 BB, 2 players) 4s
Hero checks, MP bets 28.55 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 28.55 BB

MP shows Js Kc (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 65%, Flop 38%, Turn 23%)

Hero shows 7c 9d (Two Pair, Tens and Nines)
(Pre 35%, Flop 62%, Turn 77%)

Hero wins 105.38 BB

I’m not too pleased with the hand I busted on. I do think I should have gone broke given how the board ran out, but it would have been better to call the flop and get all in on this turn.

PokerStars – 6000/12000 Ante 1500 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 6.98 BB (VPIP: 22.16, PFR: 13.23, 3Bet Preflop: 9.18, Hands: 194)
Hero (BTN): 31.1 BB
SB: 75.19 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BB: 135.17 BB (VPIP: 18.84, PFR: 13.43, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 73)
UTG: 165.89 BB (VPIP: 31.67, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 242)
UTG+1: 44.35 BB (VPIP: 19.67, PFR: 14.66, 3Bet Preflop: 10.24, Hands: 606)
MP: 25.96 BB (VPIP: 16.70, PFR: 11.94, 3Bet Preflop: 5.09, Hands: 504)
MP+1: 35.16 BB (VPIP: 21.00, PFR: 16.26, 3Bet Preflop: 10.31, Hands: 501)
MP+2: 37.86 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 9)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Ac Js
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.4 BB, fold, BB calls 1.4 BB

Flop : (8.82 BB, 3 players) Tc Jc 9d
BB checks, MP+1 checks, Hero bets 2.65 BB, BB raises to 6.58 BB, fold, Hero raises to 28.58 BB and is all-in, BB calls 21.99 BB

Turn : (65.98 BB, 2 players) 2d

River : (65.98 BB, 2 players) 2c

BB shows 9c Qc (Flush, Queen High)
(Pre 40%, Flop 62%, Turn 43%)

Hero shows Ac Js (Two Pair, Jacks and Twos)
(Pre 60%, Flop 38%, Turn 57%)

BB wins 65.98 BB

I didn’t do anything too interesting in the $215 rebuy, but here’s a hand I screwed up:

PokerStars – 300/600 Ante 75 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 83.23 BB (VPIP: 33.46, PFR: 20.31, 3Bet Preflop: 6.56, Hands: 267)
CO: 51.64 BB (VPIP: 22.86, PFR: 22.86, 3Bet Preflop: 17.65, Hands: 35)
BTN: 49.94 BB (VPIP: 15.11, PFR: 8.73, 3Bet Preflop: 1.79, Hands: 140)
SB: 79.96 BB (VPIP: 20.26, PFR: 14.66, 3Bet Preflop: 6.86, Hands: 545)
Hero (BB): 96.56 BB
UTG: 37.1 BB (VPIP: 20.21, PFR: 12.43, 3Bet Preflop: 5.75, Hands: 189)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has 7s 8h
fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero raises to 3.7 BB, SB raises to 13 BB, Hero calls 9.3 BB

Flop : (26.75 BB, 2 players) 9d 4d Td
SB bets 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB

Turn : (50.75 BB, 2 players) 6d
SB checks, Hero checks

River : (50.75 BB, 2 players) 7c
SB bets 15.73 BB, Hero calls 15.73 BB

SB shows Jc Jd (Flush, Jack High)
(Pre 82%, Flop 85%, Turn 100%)

Hero mucks 7s 8h (Straight, Ten High)
(Pre 18%, Flop 15%, Turn 0%)

SB wins 82.22 BB

I think I played the turn right, and maybe the flop? But pre-flop, I probably screwed up twice, and the river should probably be a fold. #TheyAlwaysHaveIt

PokerStars – 100/200 Ante 25 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 223.49 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 15)
BTN: 256.49 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
SB: 250.62 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
Hero (BB): 251.25 BB
UTG: 247.62 BB (VPIP: 14.15, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 205)

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.12 BB) Hero has 4c 4h
UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop : (8.62 BB, 3 players) Kc 4d 5d
Hero checks, UTG bets 4.14 BB, BTN calls 4.14 BB, Hero raises to 25.18 BB, fold, BTN calls 21.04 BB

Turn : (63.13 BB, 2 players) Kd
Hero bets 18.94 BB, BTN raises to 57 BB, Hero calls 38.06 BB

River : (177.13 BB, 2 players) Qs
Hero checks, BTN bets 171.68 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 166.44 BB and is all-in

BTN shows 5s 5h (Full House, Fives full of Kings)
(Pre 81%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)

Hero shows 4c 4h (Full House, Fours full of Kings)
(Pre 19%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)

BTN wins 510.01 BB

Honestly, I’m not at all sure this was a good river call. I do think it’s just a bluff-catcher, and although the 4s are somewhat relevant blockers, this is probably a spot where most people underbluff enough and my remaining chips valuable enough for me to fold.

It all worked out in the end though, because I took a few hours off (I hadn’t registered anything else yet) and then put in an afternoon session instead, which culminated in my taking 3rd out of nearly 1000 runners in the Big $109. That will almost certainly become a video on Tournament Poker Edge so I don’t want to give away too much, but here are two fun hands from the last two tables:

PokerStars – 2500/5000 Ante 625 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 17.34 BB (VPIP: 21.60, PFR: 15.87, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 705)
BB: 69.56 BB (VPIP: 26.88, PFR: 20.24, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 93)
UTG: 49.33 BB (VPIP: 45.45, PFR: 36.36, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 11)
UTG+1: 23.91 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 13)
Hero (MP): 18.75 BB
MP+1: 33.19 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, Hands: 56)
MP+2: 8.21 BB (VPIP: 22.35, PFR: 14.32, 3Bet Preflop: 8.12, Hands: 427)
CO: 76.27 BB (VPIP: 15.45, PFR: 9.62, 3Bet Preflop: 5.13, Hands: 110)
BTN: 31 BB (VPIP: 21.48, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 12.28, Hands: 257)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Qs Kh
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (6.18 BB, 2 players) 7s 2h 5s
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (6.18 BB, 2 players) 2c
BB checks, Hero checks

River : (6.18 BB, 2 players) 6h
BB bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

BB shows 4s Ks (One Pair, Twos)
(Pre 29%, Flop 46%, Turn 32%)

Hero shows Qs Kh (One Pair, Twos)
(Pre 71%, Flop 54%, Turn 68%)

Hero wins 14.18 BB

Villain was active in the chat box, which made it even more fun.

This was with 11 players remaining. Villain timed down to 0 before folding. Was quite the sweat:

PokerStars – 6000/12000 Ante 1500 NL – Holdem – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 14.71 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 33)
UTG: 36.57 BB (VPIP: 20.49, PFR: 15.05, 3Bet Preflop: 8.39, Hands: 701)
CO: 65.94 BB (VPIP: 18.41, PFR: 15.04, 3Bet Preflop: 9.80, Hands: 357)
BTN: 50.35 BB (VPIP: 22.90, PFR: 16.75, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 434)
Hero (SB): 34.54 BB

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.12 BB) Hero has 8c Kc
fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.1 BB, Hero raises to 6.48 BB, fold, BTN calls 4.38 BB

Flop : (14.59 BB, 2 players) 7s Ts 5d
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn : (14.59 BB, 2 players) 6c
Hero checks, BTN bets 7 BB, Hero raises to 27.94 BB and is all-in, fold

Hero wins 28.59 BB

PS Nothing to write home about in the $1050 PKO. Collected one bounty.

Wednesday did not get off to a great start in the $500. Pretty early on, I lost this gem:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 142.61 BB (VPIP: 24.49, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 49)
MP+2: 130.55 BB (VPIP: 27.19, PFR: 15.18, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 114)
CO: 126.32 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 19.73, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 154)
BTN: 130.29 BB (VPIP: 19.65, PFR: 13.86, 3Bet Preflop: 4.79, Hands: 343)
SB: 97.6 BB (VPIP: 22.38, PFR: 16.79, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 143)
BB: 116.88 BB (VPIP: 17.28, PFR: 12.45, 3Bet Preflop: 6.87, Hands: 273)
UTG: 127.12 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 16.19, 3Bet Preflop: 8.20, Hands: 184)
UTG+1: 172.18 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (MP): 77.76 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9c Tc
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (8.46 BB, 3 players) 8c Qs Jh
BB checks, Hero checks, MP+2 bets 4.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 4.5 BB

Turn : (17.46 BB, 2 players) 5c
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 8.73 BB, Hero raises to 22.22 BB, MP+2 calls 13.49 BB

River : (61.9 BB, 2 players) 2c
Hero bets 48.63 BB and is all-in, MP+2 calls 48.63 BB

Hero shows 9c Tc (Flush, Ten High)
(Pre 34%, Flop 92%, Turn 84%)

MP+2 shows Kc Jc (Flush, King High)
(Pre 66%, Flop 8%, Turn 16%)

MP+2 wins 159.17 BB

The Zoom 6-Max was going better, for a while. It’s a fun format, over as quickly as a turbo but the Zoom structure means you get more hands per level than you would in a turbo (though it still isn’t as deep as a normal WCOOP). I actually gave some thought to folding this river, as I really couldn’t figure out what he would 3-bet-call from the SB that I could beat. Finally I decided it could be a strangely played AK, and thankfully it was!

PokerStars – 400/800 Ante 100 NL FAST (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 58.23 BB (VPIP: 25.76, PFR: 16.92, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 68)
SB: 70.2 BB (VPIP: 25.33, PFR: 18.31, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 75)
Hero (BB): 105.34 BB
UTG: 47.54 BB (VPIP: 19.46, PFR: 17.19, 3Bet Preflop: 10.11, Hands: 2,416)
MP: 64.6 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 133)
CO: 77.86 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has Jc Jd
fold, fold, CO raises to 2.2 BB, BTN calls 2.2 BB, SB raises to 7 BB, Hero raises to 20.83 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 13.83 BB

Flop : (46.81 BB, 2 players) Td 2s 4c
SB checks, Hero bets 11.11 BB, SB calls 11.11 BB

Turn : (69.03 BB, 2 players) Tc
SB checks, Hero checks

River : (69.03 BB, 2 players) 8h
SB bets 38.13 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 38.13 BB

SB shows Kh Ac (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 43%, Flop 26%, Turn 14%)

Hero shows Jc Jd (Two Pair, Jacks and Tens)
(Pre 57%, Flop 74%, Turn 86%)

Hero wins 145.29 BB

Karma caught up to me though, as I eventually got in JJ vs AK pre-flop and lost.

PokerStars – 600/1200 Ante 150 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (SB): 51.71 BB
BB: 54.56 BB (VPIP: 21.21, PFR: 17.28, 3Bet Preflop: 5.41, Hands: 200)
UTG: 41.95 BB (VPIP: 17.68, PFR: 12.53, 3Bet Preflop: 5.50, Hands: 477)
UTG+1: 38.72 BB (VPIP: 11.18, PFR: 8.82, 3Bet Preflop: 2.94, Hands: 170)
MP: 22.59 BB (VPIP: 22.96, PFR: 13.43, 3Bet Preflop: 1.75, Hands: 137)
MP+1: 29.47 BB (VPIP: 13.55, PFR: 9.15, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 156)
MP+2: 9.75 BB (VPIP: 18.32, PFR: 14.32, 3Bet Preflop: 7.83, Hands: 395)
CO: 70.81 BB (VPIP: 18.14, PFR: 13.06, 3Bet Preflop: 5.38, Hands: 659)
BTN: 184.3 BB (VPIP: 27.75, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 10.11, Hands: 192)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9d 9c
UTG raises to 2.2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.7 BB, fold

Flop : (6.52 BB, 2 players) 9s Qd Js
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn : (6.52 BB, 2 players) Jh
Hero checks, UTG bets 2.28 BB, Hero calls 2.28 BB

River : (11.09 BB, 2 players) Th
Hero checks, UTG checks

Hero shows 9d 9c (Full House, Nines full of Jacks)
(Pre 82%, Flop 95%, Turn 100%)

UTG mucks 7c 7s (Two Pair, Jacks and Sevens)
(Pre 18%, Flop 5%, Turn 0%)

Hero wins 11.09 BB

Here’s an interesting one from the $215. I don’t love check-raising bottom two when this deep on a board like this one, because although you benefit a bit from protection you aren’t generally going to end up with a hand that you want to play for four bets. Case in point: by the time we see the river, I’m at the bottom of my range and ready to turn my hand into a bluff, mostly to get Villain off of a Q though perhaps also AA or AJ.

PokerStars – 150/300 Ante 40 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 168.05 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 32)
MP+1: 148.96 BB (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 27)
MP+2: 171.63 BB (VPIP: 21.18, PFR: 13.58, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 86)
CO: 175.34 BB (VPIP: 21.15, PFR: 14.49, 3Bet Preflop: 4.59, Hands: 491)
BTN: 157.53 BB (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 2.78, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
SB: 140.37 BB (VPIP: 45.85, PFR: 34.51, 3Bet Preflop: 11.24, Hands: 233)
Hero (BB): 114.67 BB
UTG: 201.03 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 14)
UTG+1: 170.1 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has 8s Jh
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop : (6.7 BB, 2 players) Jd Kd 8h
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

Turn : (12.7 BB, 2 players) Kh
Hero checks, MP+2 checks

River : (12.7 BB, 2 players) Qd
Hero bets 8.38 BB, fold

Hero wins 12.7 BB

This was a gross one from the $530:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 107.42 BB (VPIP: 19.17, PFR: 14.39, 3Bet Preflop: 7.03, Hands: 433)
MP: 92.68 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
MP+1: 171.23 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 48)
MP+2: 86.44 BB (VPIP: 18.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 50)
Hero (CO): 193.65 BB
BTN: 119.7 BB (VPIP: 21.59, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 7.45, Hands: 227)
SB: 119.16 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BB: 121.14 BB (VPIP: 26.85, PFR: 20.56, 3Bet Preflop: 6.10, Hands: 217)
UTG: 163.31 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Jh Js
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2.19 BB, Hero raises to 6.45 BB, BTN raises to 15 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 8.55 BB

Flop : (34.81 BB, 2 players) 4s 9d 8d
Hero checks, BTN bets 10.7 BB, Hero calls 10.7 BB

Turn : (56.21 BB, 2 players) Kd
Hero checks, BTN checks

River : (56.21 BB, 2 players) Jc
Hero bets 167.83 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 93.88 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Jh Js (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 68%, Flop 53%, Turn 0%)

BTN shows Td Ad (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 32%, Flop 47%, Turn 100%)

BTN wins 243.97 BB

I can’t fault Villain’s play, it’s just a great spot for him to pressure me pre-flop. It’s possible I’m just supposed to raise again pre-flop; I certainly considered it, but the money behind seemed awkward. I haven’t run in CREV yet but I feel good about the river shove. I doubt Villain will have enough flushes and KK to be able to fold a lot of his AK/AA.

And in a throwback to one of my earliest poker strategy articles, here I am bluffing a calling station:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 108.05 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 14.52, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 429)
SB: 116.52 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BB: 175.63 BB (VPIP: 22.73, PFR: 6.82, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 44)
UTG: 89.82 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 46)
Hero (UTG+1): 176.1 BB
MP: 115.08 BB (VPIP: 21.97, PFR: 13.89, 3Bet Preflop: 7.61, Hands: 223)
MP+1: 122.04 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP+2: 121.76 BB (VPIP: 27.36, PFR: 20.95, 3Bet Preflop: 6.17, Hands: 213)
CO: 149.74 BB (VPIP: 29.55, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9c Tc
fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 1.78 BB, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (7.96 BB, 3 players) 8s 2s Jd
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 5.26 BB, SB calls 5.26 BB, fold

Turn : (18.48 BB, 2 players) 6s
SB checks, Hero bets 9.24 BB, SB calls 9.24 BB

River : (36.96 BB, 2 players) 4s
SB checks, Hero bets 18.48 BB, fold

Hero wins 36.96 BB

Win the Button is a format I haven’t quite wrapped my head around yet. The most obvious adjustment is that you should try harder to win pots because there’s more of a reward for winning pots, but what’s less obvious is that you also care who win them from. That means the delta on defending your BB against the Button is much larger than defending against UTG, because if you fold to UTG you will be CO next hand, but if you fold to Button you will be BB again. I did some extra battling in late position for this reason, but here’s the hand I’m most proud of:

PokerStars – 175/350 Ante 45 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 145.3 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
BTN: 367.52 BB (VPIP: 62.50, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
SB: 127.53 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 46)
BB: 155.34 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 60.00, 3Bet Preflop: 66.67, Hands: 5)
UTG: 7.57 BB (VPIP: 23.76, PFR: 19.52, 3Bet Preflop: 6.27, Hands: 1,005)
UTG+1: 131.33 BB (VPIP: 26.90, PFR: 16.07, 3Bet Preflop: 8.97, Hands: 343)
MP: 169.78 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
Hero (MP+1): 75.54 BB

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.53 BB) Hero has Ad Qh
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.79 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.29 BB, BB calls 1.79 BB

Flop : (9.39 BB, 3 players) 4d As 6d
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 2.82 BB, SB calls 2.82 BB, fold

Turn : (15.03 BB, 2 players) Th
SB checks, Hero bets 15.03 BB, SB calls 15.03 BB

River : (45.09 BB, 2 players) Td
SB checks, Hero bets 54.77 BB and is all-in, SB calls 54.77 BB

Hero shows Ad Qh (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 74%, Flop 86%, Turn 93%)

SB shows Ah 9d (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 26%, Flop 14%, Turn 7%)

Hero wins 154.63 BB

Needless to say, Villain should fold pre, and this is kind of an example of why. His A9o may have reasonable equity against my opening range, but it doesn’t realize that equity well, especially not against a player capable of recognizing spots like this.

There was also this value bet with Ace-Queen high on the river:

PokerStars – 1250/2500 Ante 325 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 29.62 BB (VPIP: 24.42, PFR: 17.80, 3Bet Preflop: 6.59, Hands: 394)
BTN: 88.21 BB (VPIP: 24.02, PFR: 9.04, 3Bet Preflop: 1.35, Hands: 179)
SB: 37.35 BB (VPIP: 24.30, PFR: 15.26, 3Bet Preflop: 3.77, Hands: 252)
BB: 28.47 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 12.73, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 56)
UTG: 73.5 BB (VPIP: 27.12, PFR: 19.01, 3Bet Preflop: 6.62, Hands: 713)
UTG+1: 17.34 BB (VPIP: 14.62, PFR: 7.77, 3Bet Preflop: 1.03, Hands: 212)
MP: 81.56 BB (VPIP: 24.51, PFR: 14.97, 3Bet Preflop: 6.00, Hands: 358)
MP+1: 94.43 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 15.16, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 345)
Hero (MP+2): 42.84 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.67 BB) Hero has Qc Ad
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, CO calls 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop : (7.23 BB, 2 players) 3s 8c 7h
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn : (7.23 BB, 2 players) 6d
Hero checks, CO checks

River : (7.23 BB, 2 players) 8h
Hero bets 2.17 BB, CO calls 2.17 BB

Hero shows Qc Ad (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 69%, Flop 81%, Turn 93%)

CO mucks Ah Jh (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 31%, Flop 19%, Turn 7%)

Hero wins 11.57 BB

The hand I busted on felt bad, and in fact while CREV likes my flop check (it plays a mix but mostly checks ATdd), it has almost no raising range on the turn. Which makes sense: this isn’t a flop on which I should often check strong hands, so on blank turns I’ll generally be quite capped and should therefore play the role of the bluff-catcher. Of course that would enable me to fold on a river like this one:

PokerStars – 2500/5000 Ante 625 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 33.71 BB (VPIP: 18.78, PFR: 13.74, 3Bet Preflop: 4.70, Hands: 773)
CO: 42.19 BB (VPIP: 19.51, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 41)
Hero (BTN): 21.18 BB
SB: 44.05 BB (VPIP: 23.38, PFR: 17.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 77)
BB: 55.1 BB (VPIP: 18.99, PFR: 14.11, 3Bet Preflop: 7.33, Hands: 339)
UTG: 24.1 BB (VPIP: 30.93, PFR: 7.45, 3Bet Preflop: 6.38, Hands: 97)
UTG+1: 24.17 BB (VPIP: 14.58, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 48)
MP: 58.91 BB (VPIP: 20.45, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has Ad Td
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (6.06 BB, 2 players) Th 3d Qh
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (6.06 BB, 2 players) 4c
BB bets 3.24 BB, Hero raises to 18.77 BB and is all-in, BB calls 15.53 BB

River : (43.61 BB, 2 players) Jh

BB shows 7c Qc (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 37%, Flop 74%, Turn 89%)

Hero shows Ad Td (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 63%, Flop 26%, Turn 11%)

BB wins 43.61 BB

Nothing so interesting to report from the $215; I didn’t win it.

The day off (it wasn’t a proper day off, as I did do some studying, but no playing) was nice. Emily and I had brunch at a cafe in the nearby town of Val-David. When we ordered, the server was friendly and patient with my limited French. I commented to Emily that she seemed to understand that my French was poor and be helping me along with simple words and phrasing, which I prefer to the approach more common in Montreal where people just start speaking English. It seems like out in the mountains many people still have learned English but are far less comfortable with it.

Anyway, just to prove me wrong, within minutes of my saying that the server returned to the table and said something long and complicated very quickly. I told her, “Sorry, my French is not great”, by which I meant only that I needed her to rephrase and speak more slowly, but she responded with, “Ah, OK, I am not so good in English but I will try.” And then she apologized that she’d forgotten to put our order in and it would still be a little while. Of course we were understanding, but probably she was nervous which was why she’d started speaking quickly.

Elsewhere, people were somewhat less friendly about it. I went with Emily to help her get a season pass for the regional park, and was prepared to conduct the entire transaction in broken French, translating for Emily when necessary. The woman switched to English when she saw me doing that, but she was kind of grudging about it, and made a comment at some point that, “It’s very hard for me, in English.” Which, again, I didn’t have any expectation that she speak English, only that she be patient with my French.

The grocery store is where I’m at my most comfortable, partly because not much speaking is required but also because I’ve got my routine down. Yes, I need a sac plastique. No, I don’t have a carte Métro. I’m sure it’s obvious that I’m not a fluent speaker, but it’s a perfectly fluid transaction. So after doing all of that in French, the woman looks at me over the rim of her glasses and says, “Thank you” in English like she’s caught me in some dirty secret.

There’s a nice bike path that runs through town called “Le P’tit Train Du Nord”, built on what used to be a railway. It’s very well maintained and quite popular in the summer. We got a few smiles while out on the trail but it was surprising how many people would pointedly avoid eye contact or even just stare without smiling when you gave them a little wave or head nod. So maybe it wasn’t the English, maybe the Quebecois just aren’t a friendly people (that would certainly accord with stereotypes I’ve encountered in the States).

Anyway, poker…

PokerStars has gotten a lot of criticism since Amaya took over (including from Talal Shakerchi). I think much of it is well-deserved and they are mostly full of shit when they try to sell changes that are obviously designed to increase rake as being “good for the game”. That said, their shift towards Progressive Knock-Out Tournaments does seem to be good for the game (if also good for Stars’ bottom line). These events routinely get way bigger fields than comparable Freezeouts at the same buy-in level. And at least for now, people play them badly.

I found myself in a rough spot early on, after cold four-betting Kings and getting a nightmare flop:

PokerStars – 300/600 Ante 75 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 88.29 BB (VPIP: 25.32, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 237)
MP: 64.14 BB (VPIP: 23.91, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 92)
MP+1: 75.05 BB (VPIP: 20.87, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 207)
MP+2: 74.09 BB (VPIP: 20.65, PFR: 15.22, 3Bet Preflop: 6.82, Hands: 92)
CO: 86.02 BB (VPIP: 21.59, PFR: 14.77, 3Bet Preflop: 9.30, Hands: 88)
BTN: 85.29 BB (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 4.88, Hands: 92)
SB: 90.07 BB (VPIP: 20.52, PFR: 14.66, 3Bet Preflop: 7.43, Hands: 888)
Hero (BB): 78.3 BB
UTG: 109.01 BB (VPIP: 16.16, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 99)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Kh Kd
fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 5.94 BB, fold, Hero raises to 18.52 BB, fold, BTN calls 12.57 BB

Flop : (40.66 BB, 2 players) Jc Qh 5s
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn : (40.66 BB, 2 players) Qd
Hero bets 12.2 BB, BTN calls 12.2 BB

River : (65.06 BB, 2 players) 8d
Hero checks, BTN bets 54.45 BB and is all-in, fold

BTN wins 65.06 BB

I may have overreacted to seeing a Q and a J on the flop, because CREV still thinks I should get the money in (a result that is, admittedly, sensitive to the assumption that Villain has a lot of AK in his range). I do, after all, have only a pot and a half in my stack upon seeing the flop. CREV also thinks flop is a mix but mostly a bet. Again, there’s a lot of equity to be denied to AK. It’s important to keep in mind that even with my blockers, there are 8 ways to have AK and only 6 ways for Villain to flop a set (I’m comfortable assuming he never has 55).

My plan was not to double buy (that is, to rebuy 10K chips for $215 rather than 20K chips for $430), because the add-on buys 20K chips for $215, which means that buying that extra 10K during the rebuy period is quite expensive. Your initial chips are expensive too, of course, but you can’t add on if you don’t have chips!

Eventually, though, I convinced myself that the players on my right had enough chips and were playing badly enough that I wanted to have more to invest against them. I’m not sure that was the right decision, but it paid off:

PokerStars – 125/250 Ante 30 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 91.93 BB (VPIP: 18.84, PFR: 11.94, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 69)
Hero (BTN): 80.09 BB
SB: 157.66 BB (VPIP: 18.92, PFR: 15.09, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 113)
BB: 177.09 BB (VPIP: 47.00, PFR: 27.00, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 100)
UTG: 40.52 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 22)
UTG+1: 43.26 BB (VPIP: 22.97, PFR: 10.64, 3Bet Preflop: 5.03, Hands: 359)
MP: 36.4 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 7.04, 3Bet Preflop: 5.41, Hands: 144)
MP+1: 79.88 BB (VPIP: 19.11, PFR: 12.20, 3Bet Preflop: 6.86, Hands: 246)
MP+2: 104.4 BB (VPIP: 38.16, PFR: 18.42, 3Bet Preflop: 9.38, Hands: 76)

9 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.58 BB) Hero has 3s 3h
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2.5 BB, MP+2 calls 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold

Flop : (10.08 BB, 3 players) 5h Qs 3c
MP+1 bets 5 BB, MP+2 calls 5 BB, Hero raises to 21.55 BB, fold, MP+2 raises to 101.78 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 55.92 BB and is all-in

Turn : (170.02 BB, 2 players) Jd

River : (170.02 BB, 2 players) Qh

MP+2 shows Kd Qc (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 48%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)

Hero shows 3s 3h (Full House, Threes full of Queens)
(Pre 52%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)

Hero wins 170.02 BB

I won more big pots with 66 vs 64 on 764dd (frankly that Villain overplayed his hand as well – I flatted his flop check-raise, and he overbet jammed a Qd turn!), and then a really big one getting QQ all in against AK and holding. After winning that huge flip – note this for when I start whining about losing flips – I was in second place overall. Eventually, though, I just blew up:

PokerStars – 1250/2500 Ante 325 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 43.44 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 65)
Hero (MP+2): 119.24 BB
CO: 10.53 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 5.65, Hands: 301)
BTN: 23.3 BB (VPIP: 20.27, PFR: 13.46, 3Bet Preflop: 8.72, Hands: 376)
SB: 43.79 BB (VPIP: 14.68, PFR: 9.67, 3Bet Preflop: 2.27, Hands: 542)
BB: 25.05 BB (VPIP: 17.35, PFR: 9.28, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 98)
UTG: 81.7 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 21)
UTG+1: 40.24 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.14, 3Bet Preflop: 5.22, Hands: 288)
MP: 31.2 BB (VPIP: 23.56, PFR: 17.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 452)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.67 BB) Hero has Ts 9d
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 1.78 BB, fold

Flop : (6.73 BB, 2 players) 9s 5h Ad
SB checks, Hero bets 2.02 BB, SB calls 2.02 BB

Turn : (10.77 BB, 2 players) 3d
SB bets 6.68 BB, Hero calls 6.68 BB

River : (24.12 BB, 2 players) 6h
SB bets 6.03 BB, Hero raises to 108.14 BB and is all-in, SB calls 26.66 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Ts 9d (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 43%, Flop 18%, Turn 5%)

SB shows 3s As (Two Pair, Aces and Threes)
(Pre 57%, Flop 82%, Turn 95%)

SB wins 89.5 BB

This isn’t even typically a hand I’d open from this seat, but the BB was quite tight. I just got it into my head from the flop that I was going to three barrels, which I think is a fine plan holding the 9 blocker, but I refused to re-evaluate after Villain took the lead on the turn.

Frankly, his bet is bad. All he has to do is check and call and he gets my stack when he’s going to get my stack. Donking on a card that really doesn’t change the board – even though it did improve his hand – throws up a red flat that ought to enable me to change course and fold, though I stubbornly ignored it. So that was frustrating.

After that it was pretty uneventful, with not too many opportunities presenting themselves and me slowly blinding down as we neared the bubble. I open jammed AK, got called by TT, and that was that.

I did manage a cash in the $530, though even that got a bit dicey. I got off to a bad start thanks to more stubbornness:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 160.07 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
UTG+1: 14.47 BB (VPIP: 25.31, PFR: 14.88, 3Bet Preflop: 4.02, Hands: 748)
MP: 259.15 BB (VPIP: 22.88, PFR: 15.52, 3Bet Preflop: 3.17, Hands: 119)
Hero (MP+1): 129.48 BB
MP+2: 79.47 BB (VPIP: 11.04, PFR: 8.18, 3Bet Preflop: 4.23, Hands: 163)
CO: 121.62 BB (VPIP: 26.23, PFR: 11.67, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 61)
BTN: 143.79 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
SB: 123.99 BB (VPIP: 20.80, PFR: 17.03, 3Bet Preflop: 8.27, Hands: 330)
BB: 121.79 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 8d 8c
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.79 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.79 BB

Flop : (7.2 BB, 2 players) 5h 2h 3c
BB checks, Hero bets 2.16 BB, BB raises to 6.1 BB, Hero calls 3.94 BB

Turn : (19.4 BB, 2 players) Ah
BB bets 6.94 BB, Hero raises to 23.59 BB, BB calls 16.64 BB

River : (66.58 BB, 2 players) Qs
BB checks, Hero bets 43.94 BB, BB calls 43.94 BB

Hero shows 8d 8c (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 82%, Flop 9%, Turn 6%)

BB shows 3d 3h (Three of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 18%, Flop 91%, Turn 94%)

BB wins 154.46 BB

This Villain was fishy enough that I think I can just fold flop. I told myself it could be a protection raise, and then the turn presented an irresistible bluffing spot. I still don’t regret firing away at turn and river, but I do think I should have folded the flop. Recognizing and exploitively folding against obviously strong lines from weak players is something I used to be more diligent about. I need to regain that discipline.

After that, it was standard stuff. I won some all ins, ran up a large stack, then lost a flip as the bubble approached. That left with me about 25bbs which I nursed until we were in the money. I found a spot to open jam about 10bb with Kh 9h from MP and was horrified when a player who’d been quite tight snap called from the HJ. I guess he was ready to gamble now that he’d cashed, though, because he had Qs Ts. The flop was all clubs and missed both of us. The turn was the Qc, but then the river was a fifth club so we ended up chopping. What a roller coaster!

The very next hand an early position player jammed 4bb, I reshoved AJo, someone else shoved, and then the BB, who was extremely short, called off the rest with his AJs. He actually made a flush to win the main pot, but I couldn’t outrun 88 for the much larger sidepot, so I finished with a min cash.

Still, I’ve cashed two of the eight WCOOP events I’ve played so far, and both felt like they could easily have been deeper runs (as did a few of the non-cashes). There’s a lot I’m doing that I’m really happy about – just got to find some discipline and some (more) rungood!

Edit: Taking today off. Was going to play the $1000 6-max shootout, but it’s capped at 216 runners and will probably be a tough field. The $215 8-game always sounds fun, but I think a day off will be more fun than (probably) busting early or (best case scenario) playing Razz until 2AM.

PokerStars – 500/1000 PL Hi (6 max) – Omaha Hi – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 48.94 BB (VPIP: 47.62, PFR: 23.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
SB: 122.09 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 21)
Hero (BB): 45.3 BB
UTG: 178.14 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
MP: 33.32 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
CO: 215.82 BB (VPIP: 47.62, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Js As 4d Qs
fold, fold, CO raises to 3.5 BB, fold, SB calls 3 BB, Hero calls 2.5 BB

Flop : (10.5 BB, 3 players) 4h 9d Tc
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn : (10.5 BB, 3 players) 5h
SB checks, Hero bets 10.5 BB, CO calls 10.5 BB, fold

River : (31.5 BB, 2 players) Jd
Hero checks, CO bets 31.5 BB, Hero calls 31.3 BB and is all-in

CO shows Kh 7s Ks 3h (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 57%, Flop 43%, Turn 68%)

Hero shows Js As 4d Qs (Two Pair, Jacks and Fours)
(Pre 43%, Flop 57%, Turn 33%)

Hero wins 94.1 BB

I made the money, surprising no one more than myself, and ultimately busted with dignity, holding a pair and a wrap against top two pair that turned a boat. I had to run the equity afterwards, but I got it in with about 62%, so can’t feel bad about that:

PokerStars – 8000/16000 PL Hi (6 max) – Omaha Hi – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 35.37 BB (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 4.55, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
Hero (CO): 46.58 BB
BTN: 72.41 BB (VPIP: 29.69, PFR: 14.06, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 128)
SB: 40.05 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 30)
BB: 65.48 BB (VPIP: 30.56, PFR: 17.36, 3Bet Preflop: 1.96, Hands: 147)
UTG: 43.88 BB (VPIP: 42.55, PFR: 21.28, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 47)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4h 3d 6d 7c
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.79 BB, BTN calls 2.79 BB, SB calls 2.29 BB, fold

Flop : (9.37 BB, 3 players) 6h 5c Qd
SB checks, Hero bets 6.18 BB, BTN raises to 27.92 BB, fold, Hero raises to 43.79 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 15.86 BB

Turn : (96.94 BB, 2 players) 6c

River : (96.94 BB, 2 players) Ah

Hero shows 4h 3d 6d 7c (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 44%, Flop 61%, Turn 0%)

BTN shows Kd As Qs 6s (Full House, Sixes full of Aces)
(Pre 56%, Flop 39%, Turn 100%)

BTN wins 96.94 BB

Although in retrospect maybe this just isn’t a good open from the CO? Like I said, undoubtedly lots of small mistakes.

I got trounced in the $1K in an interesting spot:

PokerStars – 175/350 Ante 45 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 178.74 BB (VPIP: 22.60, PFR: 15.46, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 209)
UTG: 237.43 BB (VPIP: 20.20, PFR: 13.07, 3Bet Preflop: 5.60, Hands: 307)
Hero (UTG+1): 147.77 BB
MP: 121.09 BB (VPIP: 27.81, PFR: 18.67, 3Bet Preflop: 14.07, Hands: 608)
MP+1: 117.71 BB (VPIP: 22.44, PFR: 15.81, 3Bet Preflop: 9.48, Hands: 259)
MP+2: 240.61 BB (VPIP: 9.82, PFR: 5.94, 3Bet Preflop: 1.89, Hands: 226)
CO: 64.04 BB (VPIP: 23.45, PFR: 16.25, 3Bet Preflop: 7.44, Hands: 293)
BTN: 135.27 BB (VPIP: 22.26, PFR: 18.96, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 276)
SB: 141.29 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.66 BB) Hero has Ah 8h
fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 2.28 BB, SB calls 1.78 BB, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (10.28 BB, 4 players) 8d 2c 7h
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 6.78 BB, fold, SB raises to 21 BB, fold, Hero calls 14.22 BB

Turn : (52.28 BB, 2 players) 7c
SB bets 35 BB, Hero raises to 124.36 BB and is all-in, SB calls 82.88 BB and is all-in

River : (288.03 BB, 2 players) 6h

SB shows 7s As (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 36%, Flop 8%, Turn 95%)

Hero shows Ah 8h (Two Pair, Eights and Sevens)
(Pre 64%, Flop 92%, Turn 5%)

SB wins 288.03 BB

Of course it looks bad that Villain hit a two-outer, but I think he played the hand well, and there are other ways for him to win besides binking. I like my flop defend. It’s a nasty spot, but I think given how often I’ll hold overpairs in this same spot, I should continue with this hand (which blocks 88 and 87s) and mostly dump those.

I thought of the turn as a better card than it probably was. Of course it makes sets/two-pair less likely, but I didn’t really consider that 7x would be a likely flop bluffing hand for Villain because he wants to block 77 and 87s. In retrospect, folding or even calling turn might well be better than sticking it in, even with a bounty on the Villain (which really isn’t likely to come into play, come to think of it).

I had a tricky spot in the $500 that I’m still not sure about:

PokerStars – 400/800 Ante 100 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 143.26 BB (VPIP: 21.55, PFR: 19.25, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 232)
UTG+1: 49.15 BB (VPIP: 22.62, PFR: 13.41, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 84)
MP: 79.88 BB (VPIP: 19.31, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 6.85, Hands: 668)
Hero (MP+1): 58.58 BB
CO: 62.9 BB (VPIP: 25.84, PFR: 21.32, 3Bet Preflop: 12.16, Hands: 332)
BTN: 86.71 BB (VPIP: 15.91, PFR: 10.13, 3Bet Preflop: 2.21, Hands: 398)
SB: 19.67 BB (VPIP: 21.78, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 9.55, Hands: 487)
BB: 68.82 BB (VPIP: 16.36, PFR: 12.79, 3Bet Preflop: 7.27, Hands: 276)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has 6d 5d
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (6.06 BB, 2 players) 4c 7d 9c
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB raises to 13.61 BB, Hero calls 9.61 BB

Turn : (33.28 BB, 2 players) 9s
BB bets 17 BB, Hero calls 17 BB

River : (67.28 BB, 2 players) Kd
BB bets 35.8 BB and is all-in, fold

BB wins 67.28 BB

It feels bad to call off so much with 6-high, but I still struggle to see a better option. The flop bet and call seem pretty clear-cut. Turn is tricky. Of course I could be in bad shape vs a 9, but I could also be very live against a flush draw, and if Villain doesn’t have the flush draw then I may get the opportunity to rep it if it comes in. I don’t think jamming the turn is any good, but I could certainly be convinced that it’s a fold.

I lost the rest with AK to 99 all in pre, nothing too exciting there.

I considered taking today off, but it’s dreary outside, so I’ll likely play the $215 rebuy.

Upon our arrival, I got probably my best opportunity ever to use all that French I studied some fifteen years ago. My experience in Montreal (and even in France) was that almost everyone spoke better English than I did French, but our host wasn’t comfortable in English, so she showed us around the house and she and I discussed some logistics in French. Fortunately she was patient and accommodating! To be honest, I don’t know how much the French even mattered, because Emily told me she was able to get the gist of almost everything despite speaking hardly a lick.

I max late registered the $200 Warm-Up shortly after our arrival and promptly ran my 20bb up to a top 10% stack. Then I ran AK into AA for most of my chips and lost the rest with 77 < 99 in a spot where we may have been close enough to the bubble for me to pass on my pair. Oh well.

The $500 6-max Progressive Knock-Out got off to a good start as well, with me collecting a bounty from a guy who just randomly open jammed 30bb UTG with A9o into my JJ. Then there was this hand, not a huge one but one of the more interesting I played yesterday:

PokerStars – 500/1000 Ante 125 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 58.95 BB (VPIP: 24.65, PFR: 16.59, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 216)
SB: 156.74 BB (VPIP: 26.87, PFR: 18.22, 3Bet Preflop: 7.62, Hands: 524)
BB: 99.7 BB (VPIP: 30.59, PFR: 17.16, 3Bet Preflop: 12.05, Hands: 170)
UTG: 71.55 BB (VPIP: 39.06, PFR: 21.88, 3Bet Preflop: 10.71, Hands: 65)
MP: 41.68 BB (VPIP: 21.04, PFR: 16.61, 3Bet Preflop: 7.93, Hands: 933)
Hero (CO): 90.44 BB

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has 2h As
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, BTN calls 2.28 BB, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (8.09 BB, 3 players) 4d 2c Jh
BB checks, Hero bets 2.43 BB, BTN calls 2.43 BB, BB raises to 9.27 BB, Hero raises to 17.98 BB, fold, fold

Hero wins 29.05 BB

I got a bit careless later, though, ultimately getting in too much with A9o on the Button vs a BB squeeze (in my defense, he had a decent bounty!) and then stubbornly refusing to fold Aces that I’d slowplayed pre-flop to a BB who’d pretty obviously flopped trips.

I want to save this hand from the $1K for the next time one of my students tells me he checked after flopping a strong hand because he wanted to induce a bluff:

PokerStars – 125/250 Ante 30 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 215.8 BB (VPIP: 53.85, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
BB: 179.85 BB (VPIP: 16.02, PFR: 11.52, 3Bet Preflop: 2.82, Hands: 207)
UTG: 204.52 BB (VPIP: 14.11, PFR: 8.02, 3Bet Preflop: 2.53, Hands: 165)
UTG+1: 193.04 BB (VPIP: 24.62, PFR: 17.50, 3Bet Preflop: 5.99, Hands: 535)
Hero (MP): 175.49 BB
MP+1: 207.92 BB (VPIP: 15.82, PFR: 11.95, 3Bet Preflop: 7.65, Hands: 496)
CO: 241.58 BB (VPIP: 26.92, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
BTN: 132.1 BB (VPIP: 38.46, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)

8 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.46 BB) Hero has 4d 4c
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, CO calls 2.28 BB, BTN calls 2.28 BB, SB calls 1.78 BB, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (12.36 BB, 5 players) 6c 4h 7d
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 8.16 BB, fold, BTN raises to 20 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 11.84 BB

Turn : (52.36 BB, 2 players) 6d
Hero checks, BTN bets 25 BB, Hero calls 25 BB

River : (102.36 BB, 2 players) Qd
Hero checks, BTN bets 84.7 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 84.7 BB

BTN shows Ah Jh (One Pair, Sixes)
(Pre 49%, Flop 4%, Turn 0%)

Hero shows 4d 4c (Full House, Fours full of Sixes)
(Pre 51%, Flop 96%, Turn 100%)

Hero wins 271.77 BB

Villain showed Ah Jh.

I chugged along with a top 15% stack for most of the first six hours before losing a big flip with JJ to AKs. I won a few flips after getting short to stay alive, but eventually lost AJ < QQ to finish off my first day in the WCOOP.

A few mistakes aside (which I don’t want to be too dismissive of – making fewer mistakes is a key tournament skill), I was pleasantly surprised with my play. I’d hardly played at all since WSOP, and although I’ve been studying a lot, there’s always the danger of either being rusty or making mistakes trying to implement new concepts that I’ve only studied in theory. I don’t feel like I feel into either of those traps yesterday, and in fact I was quite pleased with some of the adaptations I made after reading Matt Janda’s new No Limit Hold ‘Em for Advanced Players.

Links

Michael Johanson and Dustin Morrill discuss Nate and Andrew’s play against DeepStackAI on Episode 210
Michael Bowling introduces DeepStack AI on Episode 208
CPRG Solves Heads Up Limit Hold ‘Em (Episode 110)
Introducing the Computer Poker Research Group on Episode 78
DeepStackAI Article in Science
Andrew and Nate battle DeepStackAI on Twitch
More DeepStackAI matches on YouTube

Timestamps

$1/$2 NLHE with a $4 straddle. UTG1 limps, HJ limps, Hero raises $24 with AThh on Button, Villain calls in BB, rest fold.

Flop ($56 in pot) Ac 5h 2d. Check, Hero bets $30, Villain calls.

Turn ($116 in pot) Td. Check, Hero bets $65, Villain raises to $155.

River ($426 in pot) 8h. Villain checks. Hero?

Links

Twitch
Twitter
Joe Ingram Interview

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
4:45 – KL
62:49 – strat

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
8:29 – strat
46:20 – etay

Strategy

NLHE tournament, 2000/4000 with a 400 ante. I had the big stack at the table, at about 280k or so. The villain in this hand was second in chips with 235k. There were roughly 36 players left, with 32 getting paid.

Action folds to him in the hijack, he makes it 11,500, I have JJ, and make it 30k. All fold back to him, he calls quickly.

Pot is ~69k . He checks blind (he did this a lot). Flop comes 467r. I bet 45K, Villain calls.

Pot ~159k. He checks blind again (less common for him to do this on the turn). Turn is a 2. I check behind.

~159k. River is a 3. He thinks for a couple seconds and shoves for 161k.

The trickiest problem of all is that you can only collect bounties if you have more chips than your opponents, which means that there must be some disjuncture in chip value. To understand this, consider that everyone else has 7,500 chips and you have 7,499. How much would you pay to be able to add a single chip to your stack? I don’t know to put an exact number on that, but considering that that chip would give you a shot at collecting $500 bounties, it must be a good deal more than $0.1133. Losing a single chip, however, would cost you less than that, because that chip would be nowhere near your last.

Let’s consider another hypothetical. At 50/100, you are in the big blind. You and the player on your right both have exactly the 7,500 starting stack. The action folds to the small blind, who moves all in without looking at his cards. Assuming that you are of exactly average skill in this tournament, what should your calling range be?

Please give it a look and let me know what you think!

Strategy

Hand 1

I’m in MP with 9c9d, a stack of $5.56 and raise to 15c, it folds around to the SB with a stack of $5.96 who 3bet to 35c. It folds back to me and I make an easy call.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 7s, 5s, 6h ] Pot: 0.75c.
Villain bets [ $0.36 USD ]
hero calls [ $0.36 USD ]

** Dealing Turn ** [ 2d ] Pot: $1.47
Villain bets [ $0.70 USD ]
hero calls [ $0.70 USD ]

** Dealing River ** [ Jh ] Pot: $2.87
Villain bets [ $1 USD ]

Hand 2

I had 77 utg and limped.  It limped around all the way to the button who just flatted.

Five players to the flop of k 7 4 rainbow.  I checked checked all the way to button who bet 12. I just called 12.  The cutoff also called.

The turn brings a 6 diamonds.  2 diamonds on the board.

I check.  Check on cutoff and the button bets 35.  I wait 30 seconds and then reraise to 100.

Cutoff hymns and haws and I put him in 75d and he calls after 1 minute or more.  The button calls instantly.

River brings j diamonds.  I check quickly and the c/o quickly moves all in for 210.

The button calls immediately for less – like 60.

Hand 3

1/2 game in Arizona. Hero has $350 effective, and is the big stack at the table. Both usual suspects limp, and hero checks his option from the BB with Ad 6s.

The flop comes all diamonds. T72. I bet $10, and one of the more laggy players three bets me to $25. The other one folds. I call.

Turn is the Jh. I check. Villain leads for $30. I call.

River comes JD, pairing the board but also giving me the nut flush. I lead for $25, Opponent clicks back pretty quickly, making it $50.

Plus, a big announcement from Nate, and Andrew discusses a big call down he made in the WSOP Main Event.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello & welcome
16:30 – strategy
50:30 – Benny Glaser

Strategy

Beginning of Level 2, 150/300. I open to 750 UTG2 with ATo (while noting that the very active Euro on my left is doing the fold hold). CO, BN, and BB call. CO and BN are among the weaker players at the table, BB seems quite good.

Flop T66cc, check to me, I bet 1200 into 3000ish, only BB calls (he called pretty quickly, though I put less stock in timing tells for better players).

Turn 4o. He checks, I bet 2200, he raises to 8000, and I take a long time calling.

River 3o. He bets 16K into 25K.

Timestamps

0:25 Hello and Welcome
16:00 Strategy

Clayton previously discussed his deep run in the WSOP Main Event on this show. Follow Clayton on Twitter@claytoncomic and learn more about his upcoming shows from his website. His podcast is Broadway Comedy Club Radio.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
29:09 – Strategy

WSOP Prep

Tournament Poker Edge
Zach Elwood on poker tells

Strategy

Playing £1/£2 NLHE with £420 effective stacks. Hero opens to £8 with Ad 4d on the Button. Small blind folds and villain calls in the BB.

Pot is £17
Flop – JdJs5d

Villain checks, Hero bets £12, Villain raises to £28, Hero calls.

Pot £73
Turn is 7d

Villain bets £100, Hero calls.

Pot £273
River – 8h
Final board – JdJs5d7d8h

Villain checks, Hero?

Plus, in honor of Pittsburgh, our strategy segment features Andrew donking around in a 5/5/10 PLO game at the Rivers Casino.

Links

Episode 140 with Chad Power
Daniel’s Poker Night in America episode
Daniel on Twitter

Timestamps

Strategy

5/5 PLO with a $10 Button straddle

Hero is BB with AKQTsshh. SB completes, Hero completes, UTG raises to $30, MP calls, BN calls, SB calls, Hero raises to $180, everyone but SB calls.

Flop ($750) Ad 9c 7c. I am spades and hearts so no flush draw for me. I have about $3000 behind, everyone covers me. Everyone checks.

Turn ($750) Js. Everyone checks.

River ($750) 3h. Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
8:14 – Strategy

Strategy

Hand 1

We’re on the bubble, with 20 players remaining and 18 to be paid. Blinds are 1500/3000, and I raise to 6000 UTG (7-handed) with Tc 8c. The only player at the table to have me covered 3-bets to 12K from HJ, and I call.

Flop (34K) Ks 9h 7h. I check, he bets 15K, I raise to 45K, he calls.

Turn (124K) 4h. I bet 45K, he calls.

River (214K) Qc.

Hand 2

$1/$2 NLHE, seven-handed, $300 effective stacks.

UTG+1 opens to $15. CO and BN call, Hero calls Qh 6h in the BB.

Flop ($55) Q97r. Hero checks, UTG1 bets $20, CO and BN fold, Hero calls.

Turn ($95) 6. Hero bets $35, UTG1 raises to $100, Hero shoves.

Hand 3

$2/$5 Spread Limit O/8 with a $100 Max Bet, 9-handed, $250 effective stacks.

Hero limps AA92 UTG, several calls, Button raises to $40. Folds to Hero…

Fortunately, I managed to win the first few pots of the day, first with an open shove to take the blinds, then with an UTG raise which went uncontested, then calling a shove with AT in the BB to beat A9 from the SB for a full double.

After that, I was back in action. As I mentioned, I ended Day 1 with a major regret from the then-largest pot of the tournament, but I can honestly say that from Day 2 I can think of only very small things I wish I’d done differently. A few hands I’m proud of:

Bluff on the Bubble

We’re on the bubble, with 20 players remaining and 18 to be paid. Blinds are 1500/3000, and I raise to 6000 UTG with Tc 8c. The only player at the table to have me covered 3-bets to 12K (he said later this was a misclick and he meant to make it 17K, which I believe), and I call.

Flop (34K) Ks 9h 7h. I check, he bets 15K, I raise to 45K, he calls.

Turn (124K) 4h. I bet 45K, he calls.

River (214K) Qc. I shove about 120K, he folds AK and asks me to show. I oblige.

Better Bet Sizing Through Tells

Still on the bubble. Blinds 1500/3000. The player in the BB has only about 60K to start the hand. An active recreational player with a big stack raises to 7500 from the HJ. I have him covered and raise to 20K. A very tight player in the SB looks at his cards and instantly jams ~65K. I put him on KK at worst and am ready to fold, but then the original raiser calls, so I decide to see a flop.

Edit: I have 66!

Flop (~215K) 884r. Checks through.

Turn 4. Checks through.

River 6. Bingo. Original raiser checks, and I am trying to think about how much he might call just an Ace. In my head, I settle on a small number, 40K.

As I grab chips, he says “Dammit!” and kinda bangs the table. I know that sounds so blatant that it must be an act, but in the moment it really felt like genuine frustration at the fact that he knew I was about to put him in a tough spot. This suggested to me that he would actually consider calling a larger bet, so I bet 75K. After much agonizing, he called with an Ace. The all in player had AA, so I scooped a big one there.

Bluff Catching at the Final Table

Recent podcast guest Chase Bianchi was at the final table of 10 with me (and recent podcast guest Elena Stover finished 12th).

Blinds are 2500/5000. UTG1 limps, Chase limps in MP3, the SB folds, and I check my option with the mighty 42o.

Flop (22,500) Q54r. Checks to Chase, who bets 12,500. I raise to 30K, UTG1 folds, and Chase calls. Lots of good things can happen when I raise. Although I may well have the best hand (I don’t think Chase needs much at all to stab at this), it benefits a lot from protection. It’s even possible that I can push UTG1 off of a better pocket pair and get called when I’m ahead against Chase, if he has a draw or just a random float.

Turn (82,500) 5. I bet 45K. This is actually a pretty nice card for me. Even though it reduces the combos of sets and two-pair that I could have, I still have all of them in my range, whereas Chase has only an ever-dwindling number of 54, 44, and 55, some of which I block (suits are actually relevant here, as I imagine he might limp 54s but not 54o, but I don’t remember them). I don’t know how much Qx or 4x he’s limping, and the turn makes 5x less likely for him.

He calls. I now think his range consists of 76, Qx, pocket pairs, 54, 55, and 44 (at least some of which may check the flop). My plan is to check-call river if the straight draw misses, as I don’t think he has much incentive to jam a better pair for value.

River (172,500) 2. I check, he jams 98K, I call, and he shows 97s, which quite surprising to me. I don’t recall whether he had a backdoor flush draw on the flop, but he definitely did not have a flush draw on the turn, so I guess he just thought he was going to straight up own me. Whoops!

In addition to giving me a comfortable chip lead at the final table, this call had several good effects. It eliminated one of my toughest opponents, and it sufficiently awed most of the table such that they were not inclined to mess around with me.

The Rest

We got down to five-handed with me, a satellite qualifier, a guy named Steve who knew me from Tournament Poker Edge, a likely pro from Michigan, and a guy named Carlos Chadha – more on him in a moment.

The satellite qualifier was absolutely unwilling to put his chips in without a top 5% hand, pot odds be damned. He eventually even folded his SB, leaving himself with just three ante chips. Amazingly, he kept picking up AQ and winning with it to stay alive. Eventually, he busted in 5th place.

The kid from Michigan seemed good-natured at heart, so maybe he was just a bit tilted, because on this particular evening he was acting like a salty circuity grinder. He was the second shortest stack at the table, which meant he was handcuffed by the presence of the satellite qualifier who just wouldn’t die. He was getting frustrated at the guy’s abject refusal to put money in the pot and started just openly commenting on how bad some of his folds were. I was happy to see him go out in 4th.

As I mentioned, Steve knew me from Tournament Poker Edge. Carlos, as it turned out, knew me from Poker Savvy Plus, a pre-Black Friday training site I worked for for several years. He was old school and, now, a high roller. Literally, a super high roller. This $570 was the smallest live tournament he’d ever deigned to play. But he was in the area, and he’d never won a live tournament, and he really wanted to do so.

Much as I hate to admit it, I doubt I was the best player out of the three of us. Carlos had an aura of confidence and deep thought about him, and I never saw him miss a trick. Actually, that’s not quite true. He once called down with an unimproved K2 vs Steve, only to find that Steve was indeed bluffing… with a better King! But I mean, if the biggest “mistake” you’re making is correctly identifying a bluff and calling down with King-high….

A Hero Check

We passed chips back and forth for over three hours. Really the only interesting pot I was involved in began with me raising the button (sorry, I don’t recall the stakes – couldn’t keep notes well while playing short-handed) with Kd Qd. Carlos called in the SB, and Steve called in the BB.

Flop As Td 6c. Checks around.

Turn Jd. Bingo. Carlos checks, Steve bets 75K, I raise to 175K with about 325K behind, Carlos folds, and Steve calls.

River Tc. Certainly not what I wanted to see. I watched Steve like a hawk as the river card came down, and to his credit, he didn’t give anything away as it fell, nor as he checked. Not a lot of people can so casually react to such a significant card with so much on the line, and it was only for that reason that I even considered betting the river. I just couldn’t figure what he could call with, as I think he would have re-raised pre-flop with AK/AQ, A6 and J6 got counterfeited, and from the way he called the turn I didn’t really think he had a bare Ace. I checked and allowed my pride in finding that check to counteract my disappointment in seeing Steve roll AT for a full house.

The End

I eventually busted Steve when he jammed ATs on the button and I woke up with QQ in the SB. That left me heads up with Carlos with nearly even stacks, something like his 1.1M to my 1M. That was only 20 big blinds, so there wasn’t much room to play.

I was hoping I might at least be the more experienced heads up player, but apparently Carlos was an online heads up pro for a while. He certainly seemed to know what he was going on a 20BB stack, which to be honest that part of my game is not particularly tight. I haven’t put much thought into a button limping range, for instance.

It was over quickly, though. Just a few hands in, he limped the button for 50K, and I, now with an 18BB stack, raised to 175K with A7s. He jammed, I called, and he showed me TT. Although I turned a flush draw, I didn’t get there on the river, and Carlos won his first-ever live poker tournament!

Although A7s is a strong hand with just a single opponent and 18BBs, against a weaker player, I might not force the action pre-flop. Against Carlos, though, I didn’t feel like there was any room to pass on thin edges, so I went for the raise-call. Basically it was just a cooler, which in all likelihood was how the match was going to end one way or the other.

We finished play around 12:30, nearly 12 hours after we started, but there’s no rest for the weary. The $1500 Main Event starts today!

In our strategy segment, we discuss why it matters how the money goes in, and what to do with a straight facing a big shove when the river pairs the board.

We encourage you to buy Painless Poker and Tommy’s other books directly from him, in order to get your free autograph and e-books. If you do buy from Amazon, though, please use our affiliate link.

Tommy previously appeared on Episode 2, Episode 29, and Episode 192.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome & Strategy
35:31 Interview: Tommy Angelo

Strategy

Playing $0.25/$0.50 NLHE online. Villain has starting stack of $53.40, I have $43.69

Villain opens on the button to $1.10 (his standard open). I call in the BB with 8s8d

Pot is $2.45. Flop – 7d 6h 9c

I checked, he bet $2.50. I called.

Turn was 10h. I check he checks.

River was 6d. I bet $3.69 into $7.45 and then he shoves for $49.80 and has me covered.

I suspect, though, that even if we were to give the Hero a slightly stronger holding, such as QQ, many people would still be reluctant to shove. Why is this?

I believe the overriding cause to be classic loss aversion: at some level; most human brains are more concerned about not-losing than they are about winning. Even when we can expect to win at a favorable, very profitable frequency, our guts may very well tell us to be careful.

Does that sound like you? Did you find the article helpful? Please let me know in the comments!

And don’t miss Carlos Welch’s great piece on How to Develop and Use Reads!

.Next week, Terrence Chan and Adam Schwartz of the 2+2 Pokercast will play DeepStack. I wanted to share some of my thoughts from the match with both them and the Thinking Poker community anyway, so I figure I might as well just collect my thoughts here.

1. Bet Sizes. I haven’t discussed this with the Computer Poker Research Group, but it seems like there are only a few bet sizes that DeepStack considers for its own actions (though, as I understand it, its ability to respond to diverse bet sizes is one of its chief advances over previous NLHE AIs). For instance, into a pot of 1600, it might bet 800, 1600, or 3200, but it would never choose 2291 as a bet size unless that were its exact stack size.

   This strikes me as the best opportunity to exploit DeepStack, though Terrence and Adam are probably more capable than I of determining how exactly to take advantage of that (it wasn’t something I actively tried to do during my match). Considering the range of bet sizes DeepStack does use, I suspect that generally it doesn’t lose much by not considering “weirder” amounts. However, this might be somewhat more problematic with shallow stacks, where never betting less than half pot (if that is even a constraint) might prevent it from having a bet-folding range at all.

2. Threat of a Check-Raise. These were the spots where I felt I had the most difficulty setting aside my “feel” based on how human opponents tend to play and constructing minimally exploitable ranges. There are a lot of spots where (non-elite) human opponents don’t check-raise often. This is for a variety of reasons: lack of “obvious” bluffing candidates, difficulty of checking a strong hand multiple times, etc. As a result, I think I ended up with betting ranges that were sometimes too depolarized (getting raised off of strong draws or very-possibly-best made hands sucks) or simply too wide.

   Example: There was one hand where I turned 84 into a bluff on AJ2Q4, and it check-raised me with 85o!

3. Board Coverage. Nate and I talked a bit about this on stream. This is something you see when working with solvers as well, and is probably related to (2). There are subtle things that DeepStack seems to do when making what might seem like arbitrary choices about candidates for floating or bluffing on early streets. The end result is a less predictable range on future streets.

   For instance, I know that I want to have some Kx in my three-betting range when deep, and I typically choose some combination of KTs – KAs for this purpose. DeepStack almost certainly does a better job of getting the exact frequency right, but even we miraculously had the same amount of Kx in our three-betting ranges, it probably builds its range by three-betting all combinations of Kxs at relatively low frequencies. This means it ends up connecting with boards like Q74 in three-bet pots in ways that I don’t. Likewise its candidates for peeling or bluff-raising flop can seem surprising when the truth is that the choice is arbitrary in a vacuum but there is incentive to reach turns and rivers with a wider variety of holdings than most humans do. Consequently, it’s harder (though still not impossible) to recognize a particular run out as good or bad for DeepStack based on its play on earlier streets.

4. Surprising Play. DeepStack did more than a few things that surprised us. For the most part, we were willing to believe that it “knew” better and could, after the fact, wrap our heads around why it may have done what it did. But it made one play against me that I have a really hard time believing could possibly be correct.

   At 200/400, I opened to 1200 with QTo, and DeepStack jammed 18,250 effective with 85o. When we’re talking about move all in pre-flop, board coverage isn’t going to be a consideration, and although shoving ranges won’t be strictly linear because there will exist hands where calling > shoving > folding, it’s hard to imagine how folding could ever be correct if shoving 85o is +EV here.

   It’s worth adding here that one feature of an equilibrium strategy is that it will not include “advertising” or “balancing” plays, even at a low-frequency, that have a negative expected value. Now admittedly, DeepStack does not claim to have an equilibrium strategy, but the point is that shoving, even at a low frequency, can’t be justified simply by saying it’s a balancing play. It would have to have EV not less than 0 for shoving to be correct at any non-zero frequency.

Can it? Join us Wednesday at 5PM Eastern on Twitch to find out as Nate and Andrew battle in real time against DeepStack.

Links

Tournament Poker Edge

DeepStackAI Article in Science

Timestamps

Strategy

From a €500 deep stack tournament in Dublin. Blinds are 150/300/25 and effective stacks are 100-110k.

UTG limps, folds to MP who makes it 700, folds to Hero on the button who 3-bets to 2100 with AQo. UTG 4-bets to 7000. MP folds, Hero calls.

Pot: 15,450
Flop: 9c 7s 2h

UTG bets 6500. Hero calls.

Pot: 28,450
Turn: Qd

UTG bets 11,200. Hero calls.

Pot: 50,850
River: 5s

UTG bets 35,000. Hero?

Links

Tournament Poker Edge

NYC Live Event with Just Hands Poker

DeepStackAI Article in Science

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
13:08 – strat
45:14 – nikolai

Strategy

Hand 1

60/120 Limit Hold ‘Em

Button raises, Hero 3-bets ATo in SB, BN 4-bets, Hero calls.

Flop (4.5 BBs) T42r. Check, bet, call.

Turn (5.5 BBs) A. Check, bet, raise, call.

River (7.5 BBs) T. Bet, fold.

Hand 2

$1/$3 NLHE, $390 effective stacks.

Utg+1 calls, MP raises to 13, Hero raise to 35 with QQ on btn, folds back to MP who calls. 

Flop ($77) Qh 9h 6c. Check, Hero bets $40, call.

Turn ($157) Jh. Check, Hero bets $80, Villain raises to $200, Hero calls

River ($557) Qh 9h 6c Jh 2h. Villain jams $150, Hero folds.

Links

Tournament Poker Edge

NYC Live Event with Just Hands Poker

Timestamps

0:30 hello
12:36 strat

Hand 1

$2/$5 NLHE, 9-handed, $500 effective stacks.

UTG1 limps, Villain limps HJ, Hero raises to $25 with Ac Qs, SB and both limpers call.

Flop ($105 in the pot) Qc 7c 3c. Checks to HJ, HJ bets $30, Hero calls, other two fold.

Turn ($165) 8h. Villain bets $40, Hero raises to $120, Villain calls.

River ($405) 8d. Villain bets $175, Hero?

Hand 2

$1/3 NLHE, nine-handed, $400 effect stacks.

Villain limps UTG, another player limps, Hero raises to $15 with Ah Ad in the BB. UTG calls, other player folds.

Flop (~$30) 6d 5d 3d. Hero checks, Villain bets $25, Hero raises to $80, Villain calls.

Turn (~$190) Jc. Hero checks. Villain shoves $289, Hero?

Links

Tournament Poker Edge

NYC Live Event with Just Hands Poker

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
6:50 – Strategy: Top-Top in a Straddled Pot
40:38 – Interview: Ronnie Bardah

Strategy

$2/$5 NLHE, $500 effective stacks.

UTG straddles for $15, UTG2 raises to $45, Hero calls Ad Kc on the button, both blinds call, and the straddle folds.

Flop ($179) As 4c 4s. Villain bets $80, Hero calls, blinds fold.

Turn ($339) 8c. Villain bets $150, Hero calls.

River ($639) 8s. Villain shoves $130, Hero calls.

“You are UTG+1 in a nine-handed $5/$10 game in which all players have $2,000 stacks. The UTG player opens to $40. Consider your action with each of the following hands: AA, AKo, AQs, KQo, JTs, 65s.”

Of course, I go on to help you consider your action, using the theoretical framework from the previous article. Hope you’ll find it useful!

Strategy this week comes to us from Nate’s recent play in a Foxwoods $1K!

Links

Coaching Carlos

Tournament Poker Edge

NYC Live Event with Just Hands Poker

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
11:38 – Strategy From Nate at Foxwoods
41:41 – Interview: Angela Bassa

Strategy

Hand 1

Blinds 150/300/25. Effective stacks 30K.

Hero limps QQ UTG, UTG1 raises to 1200, UTG2 calls BB raises it 3800, Hero calls, UTG1 folds, UTG2 calls.

Flop J97tt. BB bets 7K, Hero?

Hand 2

Blinds 600/1200/200. Effective stack 72K.

Villain opens HJ to 2800, Hero calls JTo on CO, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop (11K) 9h 5c 2h. Check, check, Hero bets 5300, folds back to HJ who calls.

Turn (22.5K) 8s. HJ checks, Hero?

Blinds are 2000/4000/500. Villain is in the BB. He’s a decidedly recreational player and seems VERY level 1/level 2 thinking. That is to, he doesn’t seem to consider his own ranges or what he’s representing. I’ve already seen him get caught in one non-sensical river bluff.

I’d been the most active player at the table, though that wasn’t saying much. Most of my pre-flop raises had been minimum, but in this case I chose a larger size because the BB had a lot of chips and seemed to inclined to defend his BB for that reason. My plan was to raise his BB less aggressively, and to use a larger size when doing so.

I begin the hand with about 120K, Villain covers by a lot (probably one of the chip leaders in the tournament).

Folds to me on the Button with Kd Qs. I raise to 10K. SB folds, BB quickly calls. “You don’t even want to think about folding?” I ask him.

“I thought about it,” he said.

“Did you even look at your cards?”

“Nope. I didn’t think you looked at yours.” This was just banter. I knew he’d looked at his cards, and he knew that I knew.

Flop (26,500 in pot) 7s 7c 4d. Villain very quickly bets 10K. I read this as a very Level 2 sort of play, where he just saw a board that was tough to hit and a player with a wide range and figured he could just bet whatever and I would have to fold if I didn’t have a pair. I think he’s looking for a fold basically always, but that doesn’t rule out his having better hands than mine. This is a shitty line to take with Ace-high, but certainly one that I see from people who are excessively concerned about protection and think too much about whether or not they have a “made hand”.

I called, thinking there was a good chance that I had the best hand. Raising is quite possibly better, though I think there’s a case for letting him put more weak money into the pot before doing so.

Turn (46,500) Ts. Villain bets 15K. I read this as weak, which I still think is correct, but in retrospect it’s weak in a different way. When he bets 1/3 pot, he doesn’t really expect me to fold anything I called the flop with, he just doesn’t want to be raised. This could be a blocking bet from a better hand than mine (Ace-high or small pair) or a set-my-own-price bet with a draw. Either way, I think this should just be a jam. It’s not that much more than a pot-sized raise, and even if it does seem suspect (it’s not really how I’d play many strong hands, though he probably won’t realize that anyway), what’s he going to do, hero it off with A3?

River (76,500) 6s. Villain bets 45K. I’d seen him bluff the river before by grabbing a stack of chips and slamming it down in front of him, one of those strong-means-weak tells that’s so blatant that you wonder whether it isn’t a reverse tell. Combined with the fact that I wasn’t giving his earlier bets much credit, I still didn’t believe him.

The trouble was that I wasn’t sure how many of his bluffs I could beat. Though it would be a terrible bet, I don’t even think it’s impossible that he’s just bluffing with a gutter that rivered a pair because he doesn’t want to check and face a bet (though maybe he’d use more of a blocking sizing for that). But if he got this far with Ace high, I think it’s plausible he fires like this. He sees flop with a LOT of combos of Ax so even if the chance of him playing it this way isn’t high, that still adds up to a fair number of combos.

I decided to jam the river for about 85K total to get him off of all of those “accidental value bets”. He groaned, which was a bad sign, because it meant that he thought he had the best hand when he bet, then reluctantly called with 8s 5s for a flush.

Again, I realize that this seems insane in a vacuum and is in fact legitimately not good, particularly with the last of my chips in a very soft tournament. However, I do think it’s an interesting case of considering all of the options on the table, even if that did lead to a bad decision in this case.

Playing $2/$5 NL. Effective stack $600. Villain is a woman in her mid-20s, has a pro-ey vibe to her. I don’t know that we’ve played together before but I see her around Maryland Live a lot. Don’t remember ever seeing her in bigger games even when they were going at MDL. She always has full buyin+ in front of her, often on phone, chummy with dealers, etc. I haven’t been at table long, don’t know what if anything she thinks of me.

She opens to $20 in HJ, I make it $65 with AA in the CO, folds back to her and she calls without much thought (took less than 10 seconds to consider action, including time while other players folded).

Flop ($130 in pot) Qc 9d 9h. She checks, I bet $65, she calls.

Turn ($260) Kd. She checks, I bet $125, she calls.

River ($510) Ks. She checks. $345 remain in effective stacks.

Y’all prefer checking or shoving?

PS: Apologies to Villain, if she sees this. I’m doing this from memory several days after the fact, so there’s a fair chance I’m messing up some moderately important detail such as a suit and a small chance I’m messing up a really significant detail (it’s happened before).

Timestamps

0:30 = hello
23:05 = strat

Strategy

$2/$5 Hero ($700) opens to $20 UTG with AKo. Four callers, both blinds fold.

Flop ($105) AQ9r. Hero bets $55, Villain raises to $175, rest fold, Hero?

Time for Some Game Theory

It’s probably impossible to find a game theoretically optimal betting strategy for me on the flop, and likewise a calling strategy for Villain, as there are more than two players in the game. The river, however, is a different situation.

It’s quite likely that I’m playing a capped range after checking the turn (which may be sufficient reason not to check). If – and this won’t necessarily be the case, we’ll return to that question – Villain arrives at the river with a mix of nut hands (that beat everything in my range), air (that lose to everything in my range), and hands in between, then this is basically just the AKQ game from Mathematics of Poker, and Villain should probably bet all of his nut hands and all of his bluffs for a size that makes me indifferent between calling and folding with my bluff-catchers.

I hedge a little bit there because even in a straightforward scenario like the one I define above actual poker is a bit more complicated than the AKQ game. Blockers, for instance, can make the actual solutions more complex. Still, this is about as good an approximation as you’ll find for the AKQ game in an actual poker hand.

Hand Reading

The biggest caveat is that Villain may not get to the river a lot of air. As several commenters point out, there are good reasons why he might prefer to bet hands without showdown value on the flop rather than check and call with them.

However, that’s not enough to decide that he’s weighted towards value here, for at least two reasons:

1. Many of his strongest value hands might prefer to bet or check-raise the flop as well. Frankly, the flop check-call probably eliminates many of the hands that would otherwise be most likely to overbet the river, whether for value or as a bluff, including busted draws, sets, and even strong top pair hands. It’s a weird, uncommon line, which often means it’s likely to be unbalanced. However, if we can’t deduce or predict the imbalance, then game theory still provides a way to avoid playing into his hands.
2. One option for “finding bluffs” on the river is to turn a hand with a small amount of showdown value into a bluff. If Villain played a hand like AXhh or bottom pair this way on the flop, he may well conclude that bluffing the river would be higher EV than checking, even though his showdown value was part of the reason he played the flop the way he did.

Why Call?

If I’m roughly indifferent between calling and folding at equilibrium, why should I ever call with a bluff-catcher? It’s an understandable question, but as I argue in my recent article To Catch a Bluff:

Remember that an opponent bluffing at a game theoretically optimal frequency is, well, theoretical. It’s the assumption that we make in the absence of any better estimate of her bluffing strategy. If it turns out that she has a particularly poor strategy, bluffing with hands that are really too strong to turn into bluffs, then your bluff-catchers that break-even against an optimal bluffing strategy will actually make money. So, calling with those hands is a freeroll, as long as you don’t call with so many of them that you end up incentivizing your opponent to stop bluffing entirely.

There remains the question of whether my particular hand is a “pure” bluff-catcher or a better-than-average bluff-catcher. With only a vague idea of what Villain’s exact bluff or value hands might be, it’s hard to say with certainty which blockers could make my hand better-than-average. I’m inclined to think that having a heart would be bad and that blocking a set of 8s, top two pair, and a turned straight is good, but depending on the composition of his range for arriving at the river, these effects may be small or non-existent.

They Always Have It

My favorite response to this post came in a tweet that, sadly, I’m not unable to find. I mentioned posting a WYP about facing an overbet on the river, and someone responded to the effect of, “I didn’t read the post, but I fold.” This is reminiscent of a hashtag I’m fond of using, sometimes with tongue in cheek: #TheyAlwaysHaveIt.

There are lots of reasons why the average player bluffs at a lower-than-optimal frequency in many situations. One is just a simple fear of losing. Human brains tend to be loss-averse, which means that they tend to over-emphasize the consequences of losing a bluff. Mathematically, if a bluff of 150% of the pot will cause 70% of an opponent’s better hands to fold and will never be bluff-raised, then it will show a profit. However, if some part of your brain cares more about the money you lose when the bluff is called than the money you win when the bluff succeeds, then it may convince you that the bluff isn’t worth attempting.

On top of that, it can be hard to find bluff candidates. It’s usually obvious when you have a hand strong enough to value bet, but it’s not always clear which hands are best for bluffing. That’s especially true in a case like this one, where, as I argued above, bluffing at an optimal frequency may require the Villain to bet hands with some showdown value.

Results

#TheyAlwaysHaveIt logic becomes less applicable the more sophisticated your opponent is. I didn’t have much experience with this opponent, but he seemed more than competent, and I didn’t want to pursue an excessively exploitive strategy against him.

My logic went something like this:

1. The base rate for bluffing in this situation is probably too little rather than too much, so applying Bayes’ Theorem should lead me to fold pure bluff-catchers.
2. This opponent seems better than most, and the above logic is exploitable, so I don’t want to deviate too drastically from a balanced calling strategy.
3. My hand may be better than a pure bluff-catcher because of the blocker effect.
4. I call.

Villain had Ah Jh, which makes perfect sense and, to my chagrin, was not a hand I considered. The call kind of feels like a mistake in retrospect, but that may just be results oriented thinking. Thanks for your input, everyone!

Flop ($205) Jc 8h 6h. Checks to me, I bet $100, folds back to good pro in HJ who calls.

Turn ($405) 5d. Both check.

River ($405) 2s. Villain bets $600. Hero?

Post your thoughts and preferred play in the comments, and I’ll do my best to respond and post results as well as my own thoughts at the end of the week.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
16:11 – strat
43:40 – kyle

Strategy

Hand 1

$200 MTT. Blinds 600/1200/200. Hero opens to 3000 with Ah As in early position, BB calls.

Flop (8400) Kd 9s 3s. Check, 4200, call.

Turn (16800) 3. Check, Hero bets 9200, call.

River (34,400) 8s. BB is all in for ~30K, Hero?

Hand 2

7-handed at final table. Blinds 30K/60K, Hero (2.2M) is chipleader and opens to 150K UTG with AQo, second chipleader calls on Button (1.5M), BB (450Kish) calls.

(525K) 854r BB checks, Hero bets 225K, Button calls, BB folds.

(975K) 7. Hero?

When you three-bet, you’re gearing up to play a big pot, so you ought to come strapped. That doesn’t have to mean Aces, but it should mean a hand with a reasonable chance of winning the pot if you go to the flop. In most cases, the stronger your hand, the higher the Expected Value (EV) of your three-bet will be.

It does not follow from this that you should therefore three-bet a strictly linear range, starting from Aces and working your way down. The complication is that many hands that will have a high EV when they three-bet will also have a high EV when they call. Your job is to decide, when you have a reasonably good hand, whether it will play better as a three-bet or a call in this particular situation.

How do you decide when to three-bet? Was this article helpful to you?

Jamie and I created this video as part of a year-end fundraising campaign for the Bay Area Urban Debate League. Donations are always welcome!

Chase sticks around for a special strategy segment featuring a 10/25 NLHE hand in which Andrew was also involved!

You can follow @Chase_Bianchi on Twitter and rail him on Twitch!

Andrew would appreciate, and is offering prizes for, donations to the Bay Area Urban Debate League.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
13:36 – chase

Strategy

Utg opens 75, main opponent calls HJ, AlphaNit calls BU, we call 65cc in sb, BB calls.
5 way flop($375) 8d 6h 4c checks to villain he bets 175, AlphaNit calls, we call, 2 folds.
3 way turn($900) 7d. We check, villain bets 350, AlphaNit fold, we call.
HU river 7x. We check, villain bets 475 with 1500 behind. Hero?

I folded, and I don’t think it’s close. The short explanation is #TheyAlwaysHaveIt. Here’s a longer one:

Is This a Bluff-Catcher?

The first question to ask is whether Villain could be raising worse for value. If yes, he’s either making a huge mistake, or you should not fold. Here, I think it’s unlikely that worse raises for value. The only lower flushes possible are 52dd and 42dd, which are unlikely in a raised pot, and in any event would be awfully ambitious raises (the “huge mistake” exception.

Some comments mention straights or overpairs raising. I really don’t see that happening. The mistake here, I imagine, comes from thinking of betting or raising primarily in terms of protection, which is in fact a very secondary consideration here. You can’t “protect” a hand that may well be behind already – the cost/risk of putting in a raise drawing dead far outweighs any protection benefit.

Now you might argue that a recreational player may not think in those terms, but most tend to err on the side of being too passive, especially when it comes to large bets. Not to mention that a player excessively concerned about protecting his hand would probably raise the flop, not the turn.

It’s also worth noting that a player overvaluing weaker hands may also overvalue slightly stronger hands such as Q- or J-high flushes, which is of course bad news for us.

In short, Hero has a bluff-catcher. To decide how to play such a hand, we can start by thinking exploitively about whether this is a spot where Villain is likely to over- or underbluff.

Is Villain Bluffing Enough?

This is quite a difficult spot for Villain to bluff, because (a) he’s raising into a player who is uncapped; and (b) in order to bluff, he needs to get to the turn with a hand that has minimal showdown value and that doesn’t mind re-opening the betting.

That last caveat is important, because, as many comments point out, a bare Ad is a hand without showdown value that sees the turn. If the raise were a shove, enabling Villain to realize the equity of his draw, I would consider that plausible. However, most players will, probably correctly, not raise the Ad here for fear of facing a shove. Again, I think that if he were inclined to raise this kind of hand, he’d be more likely to do it on the flop.

Hero does have blockers to higher flushes, making this perhaps a slightly-better-than-neutral-EV bluff catch against an optimal bluffing strategy. However, there are many reasons to think Villain is in fact underbluffing this spot quite severely.

I was glad to see that nobody really took the bait concerning the straight flush redraw. It, too, could make the hand a slightly-better-than-neutral bluff catcher, but it’s not nearly enough to overcome the situational factors here.

Results

I folded, as did the second player, but the Villain showed Ad Kd anyway. Frankly, I think even this is optimistic on his part (after all, I folded a lower flush). If he’s ahead, he probably has us drawing slim to dead anyway, and he blocks the hand most likely to pay him off (a K-high flush). In his shoes, I would call and probably call the river, though I can actually imagine scenarios where I fold his hand.

In my own shoes, I would not have bet my 9d8d on the river had Villain just called turn, and there’s a good chance I would have folded it to a bet. It really is not that high up in my range, as I can have lots of better flushes as well as most full houses.

We’ve got a great strategy segment, but the interview is really about trying to make sense of the current political situation in America, using frames of reference that poker players will understand. Were the polls wrong, or did Trump just run good? How might Trump govern? What do we as citizens do now? And what does this all mean for online poker?

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
6:43 – Strategy
33:31 – Matt Glassman

Strategy

$1/$3 NLHE

Hero ($1200) dealt KcJc on button. 3 limpers ahead. Hero Raises to $20. BB ($120) and CO ($900) call. $60 in pot.

Flop comes 9cQh2c. Check around to hero. Hero bets $35. BB raises to $105. CO folds. Hero?

Playing $5/$10 No-Limit at Maryland Live, a game that does not participate in the Bad Beat Jackpot and other promotions. I don’t have a lot of experience with either Villain, but there’s a good chance they know who I am (a lot of people at MDL, many of whom I’ve never spoken to, have turned out to be familiar with the podcast, blog, or Twitter account). At the very least, I expect they perceive me as a smart player who won’t take anything off of the table in terms of bluffs, hero calls, thin value, etc.

UTG1 is a pro who plays mostly 5/10, don’t think I’ve ever seen him at 10/25. MP is a recreational player about whom I don’t know much.

I’m going to skip straight to the major decision in the hand, because I don’t think the others are terribly interesting, but feel free to ask in the comments if other actions surprise you.

Hero ($2000) opens to $35 UTG with 9d 8d. UTG1 ($3500) calls. Two players fold, and then MP ($1800) calls. Everyone else folds.

Flop ($120 in pot) 7d 6d 3d. Hero bets $80, both call.

Turn ($360 in pot) 3c. Hero bets $220, UTG1 folds, MP raises to $625, Hero?

Post your thoughts here. I’ll do my best to respond throughout the week, and will post my own thoughts as well as results on Friday.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
2:25 – strategy
24:48 – danny

Strategy

1/2 NLHE, 9-handed.

Villain 1 raises UTG1 to $12, Villain 2 calls, Villain 3 ($105) in the CO calls. Hero ($220) calls with Ad Tc in the SB.

Flop ($50) Jh Qh Ks. Hero checks, V1 bets $40, V2 calls, and V3 goes all in for $93. Hero?

You can follow Ryan on Twitter and get more information about him and his coaching from his website. He recommends reading The Red Rising Triology.

Timestamps

0:30 hello
12:01 strategy
41:29 ryan laplante

Strategy

Full ring, $1-$2 NL. I have $350 in the BB and the main villain, on the button, has $600. Other two villains directly to my left are a mix of loose aggressive and loose passive with stacks of around $250.

I have 5h5c in the BB and main villain is OTB. UTG1 raises to $17, UTG2 calls, folds to main villain who calls. I call.

Flop ($69) Qs,5d,3s

Hero checks, UTG bets $25, UTG1 calls, BTN (main villain) raises to $50, I raise to $150, UTG 1 and 2 both fold. BTN calls.

Turn ($419) is 2d. We both check.

River ($419) is Jd. I check, Villain bets $110, I shove for $183, Villain calls.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello and welcome
19:22 – donk bets with justin

Strategy

Hero (covers) raises to 12 UTG with AcKc
folds to button ($230) calls
BB ($300) calls.

Flop ($33 after rake): 5x7c8c

BB: leads for $20, Hero calls, Button Folds.

Turn (~$70 after rake): Kh

BB leads for $35, Hero calls.

River: (~$145) 2d

BB leads for $75, Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
18:29 Strategy
41:25 William Kassouf

Strategy

$2/$5 No-Limit Hold ‘Em

HJ ($2000) opens to $20. Hero ($1200) raises to $40 with Kd Kh. Button ($2000) calls, as does the small blind ($1500).

Flop ($160): 5d 6c 7h. SB checks, HJ checks, Hero bets $60, only SB calls.

Turn ($280): 3d. SB bets $150. Hero calls.

River ($580) 4d. SB bets $425. Hero?

My Day 1A table draw was quite tough, I think, given the field. Not a lot went right for me, and I busted just a few hours in.

Day 1B went much better. My starting table was amazing, I was playing six-handed with five pretty weak players and a stack that was in play from the start of the tournament and whose owner never showed up to claim it. By the end of the day, it was blinded off, contributing probably $500 in equity to me!

Despite getting into a number of good spots, I didn’t come out ahead after the first two hours of play. It was only after two better players showed up at the table that I claimed a few big pots.

I didn’t recognize the player who landed on my immediate left, but he fit the stereotype of a twenty-something grinder. He was kind of reserved and aloof and played as though he thought he everyone else was clueless (which, to be fair, several of the others basically were). This also resulted, however, in him doing some extremely exploitable things against me that cost him two large pots.

In the first, blinds are 100/200, effective stacks 40K, and the BB is the dead stack. UTG is a really obviously amateurish player who fumbles his chips and tries to raise to 300 but has to make it 400 and is blatantly not too strong here. However, I also know that this guy doesn’t like to fold to 3-bets and will even make some wild 4-bets, so I’d rather just call him with my T9dd. Problem is I’ve got this kid on my left who I’m pretty sure is going to 3-bet if I just call. So I figure fine, let him do it, we’ll play poker, and I call. Sure enough the kids makes it 2000, UTG calls, and so do I.

Flop is K32 with one diamond. We check to the kid who bets 3000, UTG folds, and I call. I can’t rep any strong hands yet, as I wouldn’t check-raise if I had a monster, but I still don’t think he has anything, and I’m going to find a bluff somewhere if I don’t pair up.

Turn is a 5, which is great because now I can bet into him, which is what I’d actually want to do with a lot of strong hands to keep from taking a free card with Ax. I bet 4000, and he quickly raises to 12K which is just extremely implausible. I mean, I don’t think he’s playing Kx this way, so either he has two-pair or better (even then I’d expect more of an act) or he’s full of it.

Still, it wasn’t easy to force myself to move in for 35K here. I didn’t relish sticking in 200 BBs with T-high no draw, but I really had a lot of confidence that this was going to work. He tanked for a while, during which I had more trouble than usual keeping a good poker face because I kept thinking about how stupid I was going to feel if he called. He eventually, folded, though, after which I felt like a genius.

A while later, at 300/600, there was now another good player at the table, and he opened to 1500 from UTG2. I just called with JJ in the SB, and kid from before raised to 5500 from the BB. This time I was sure he was strong. He wasn’t going out of his way to pick fights with the two best players at the table, especially when he had the option of just calling and seeing a cheap flop. Still, I wasn’t going to fold Jacks, so I called.

The flop came 983ss. I checked, he bet 7K (half the pot), and I called. The turn was a 5, I checked, and he bet 14K, leaving about 60K behind. There was some chance he was barreling AK, but that seemed unlikely, and he definitely didn’t have worse for value. In all likelihood, Jacks were no good. However, I also didn’t think he would have re-raised any smaller pairs or suited connectors when he could so easily call them, so really he couldn’t have better than one pair, while I had lots of sets, two-pairs, and straights in my range. This actually makes it a pretty bad idea for him to bet the turn, unless he just assumes I’m not capable of bluff raising him, because opening himself up to a bluff raise is a disaster. So, I went for it. Again, he tanked a long time, and this time he folded QQ face up!

I came into Day 2 with about twice the average in chips, but with 40% of the field remaining, we were still a ways from the money. A few hours later, my table broke, and I still had roughly the chips with which I’d started the day.

With blinds of 1500/3000/500, a player in middle position opened to 6500. I raised to 16500 with QQ on the button, and he pretty quickly ripped it in for 140K. I wasn’t thrilled, but I called it off with QQ and lost to AA, busting in about 100th place, with 63 paying. I’m not sure it was a good call – Nate and I discuss it a bit on the upcoming podcast.

0:30 – hello
11:06 – strategy

Strategy

Blinds 300/600/75. Hero opens to 1500 UTG+1 with AA. Folds around to the villain, who flats on the button. Blinds fold. Pot is about 4500 with antes.

The Flop: KJT rainbow. Hero bets 1500, Villain raises to 4500, Hero calls.

The Turn: Pot is now 13500 and the turn is the rainbow 2. Hero checks, Villain bets 7500 with 17K behind, Hero?

I wanted to share a hand with you from the third event that I played, which was a $700 Progressive Knock-Out. I tried looking at my biggest losses, but they were all-in pre-flop with KK and AK, so nothing too exciting there. Then I switched the column so that biggest wins would be at the top and momentarily confused myself because my biggest win was -80, a pot where I anted and folded. It turns out I didn’t win a single pot the entire tournament! In my defense, I did register quite late and walk into the aforementioned coolers.

Anyway, here’s one from the $200 Rebuy. It’s a good illustration of a common misunderstanding about slowplaying, that it’s somehow about “protecting your range” or some other tepid-sounding cliche that makes it sound like you’re sacrificing present value in the interest of some nebulous future gain.

In fact, playing certain strong hands in a way that’s consistent with how you’ll play weaker hands gives your opponent incentive both to bluff and to value bet thinly. If he acts on that incentive at an appropriate frequency, then you should do about as well as if you’d played your hand faster. And if he decides to go overboard, well…

PokerStars – $200+$15|700/1400 Ante 175 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 20.7 BB (VPIP: 15.76, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 5.54, Hands: 761)
UTG: 98.11 BB (VPIP: 29.25, PFR: 20.57, 3Bet Preflop: 7.50, Hands: 215)
UTG+1: 66.5 BB (VPIP: 20.77, PFR: 16.97, 3Bet Preflop: 7.63, Hands: 574)
MP: 11.13 BB (VPIP: 28.53, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 13.86, Hands: 340)
MP+1: 8.74 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 22.89, 3Bet Preflop: 8.82, Hands: 90)
CO: 44.64 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 17.21, 3Bet Preflop: 9.62, Hands: 126)
BTN: 60.7 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 14.58, 3Bet Preflop: 8.63, Hands: 622)
Hero (SB): 19.4 BB

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has Ks Kh
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 0.5 BB, BB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop : (7 BB, 2 players) 7d 2h Kd
Hero checks, BB bets 2.89 BB, Hero calls 2.89 BB

Turn : (12.77 BB, 2 players) 6c
Hero checks, BB bets 5 BB, Hero calls 5 BB

River : (22.77 BB, 2 players) Ah
Hero checks, BB bets 9.69 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 8.39 BB and is all-in

BB shows Js 4h (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 12%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)

Hero shows Ks Kh (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 88%, Flop 100%, Turn 100%)

Hero wins 39.55 BB

A lot of people worry about slowplaying in a spot like this because of the flush draw on the flop, but when ranges are sufficiently wide, that’s just not that big of a concern. It’s not like you have to fold a set in a low SPR spot just because a flush gets there, and plenty of times your opponent will be drawing stone dead and even a third diamond comes that might just give him more inducement to bluff.

I already posted one from the $200 Warm-Up, so here’s one from the second event that I played, the $1K Sunday Million. It’s an example of a concept that came up in the discussion of the previous hand, which is when to turn a hand that you originally called with for showdown value into a bluff. Here’s an example where, although I had a pair on the flop, the board ran out in a way that made it nearly impossible for me to win without bluffing, and also strengthened the rest of my range such that this is now close enough to the bottom to be a bluffing candidate on the river.

PokerStars – $1000+$50|500/1000 Ante 125 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 32.23 BB (VPIP: 26.26, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 99)
SB: 41.23 BB (VPIP: 25.53, PFR: 21.74, 3Bet Preflop: 19.05, Hands: 48)
Hero (BB): 97.29 BB
UTG: 87.76 BB (VPIP: 13.76, PFR: 11.65, 3Bet Preflop: 4.44, Hands: 109)
UTG+1: 35.24 BB (VPIP: 16.84, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 2.44, Hands: 190)
MP: 122.99 BB (VPIP: 27.78, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
MP+1: 53.42 BB (VPIP: 9.38, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 32)
MP+2: 88.98 BB (VPIP: 15.91, PFR: 11.20, 3Bet Preflop: 3.51, Hands: 264)
CO: 161.21 BB (VPIP: 18.61, PFR: 14.67, 3Bet Preflop: 8.67, Hands: 468)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has 7s 8d
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop : (5.63 BB, 2 players) 9c 8c Th
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn : (5.63 BB, 2 players) Qh
Hero checks, BTN checks

River : (5.63 BB, 2 players) Ad
Hero bets 3.38 BB, fold

Hero wins 5.63 BB

For more on playing a wide range out of the Big Blind, see my Big Blind Defense series on Tournament Poker Edge.

DP1: A6o is a tough hand to play, even when only a single opponent with a random hand remains. Raising denies the BB some equity and reduces the likelihood that you’ll have to play out of position after the flop, but it also sets you up to get blown out by a 3-bet or to play out of position against a stronger range in a raised pot. With antes in the pot, I think you have too much value to fold, but both calling and raising are reasonable options.

DP2: QJo is generally a good enough hand to raise for value into a small blind limp, especially because most people will raise the hands that dominate you and call some dominated hands. I’m not sure why I didn’t raise at the time, and I probably should have.

DP3: A few commenters seem to suggest that Villain can just bet the flop with any two cards because Hero will often “miss”, and against weaker opponents that may be true. However, better players are aware of the relative difficulty of making a pair and will defend appropriately to a flop bet, including by calling with strong unpaired hands and by bluff-raising. That’s not to say that Villain should never bluff, but he should expect only his better bluffing candidates to be profitable. Turning a hand with this much showdown value into a bluff is a mistake, as it is surely a profitable check and call.

You might object that since I called with worse, we can think of Villain’s bet as a value bet. However, overall he will not be ahead of my calling range, and many of my worse hands (though probably not this one) will often bluff him out on future streets anyway.

DP4: This is a clear call. Villain could easily be bluffing, and I ought to beat all of his bluffs plus have reasonable equity even against many of his value bets. Things get a bit dicier if he’s betting his Aces, but even then I suspect that I have enough equity to call.

As for raising, many of the same arguments apply as with Villain’s limp: the hand has too much value to turn into a bluff, at the moment anyway. On runouts that improve my weaker flop calls, I may end up bluffing with this, as it would then be the bottom of my range.

DP5: Villain’s flop bet, along with this turn card, killed any showdown value his hand had, so now it is a bluffing candidate along with the rest of the air he ought to have bet on the flop. However, Villain ought to have other bluffs with better equity available to him and probably ought to give up on this one.

Essentially, he’s got an Ed Miller pyramid problem here. His flop betting range was too wide, and now on the turn he’s going to hold too many weak hands and will have to get rid of them somehow. He can either keep bluffing, which will make my bluff-catches very profitable, of he can just check and fold, which with this hand at least is the better option.

DP6: An easy call. Villain may not be value betting worse, but even so, I have a very solid bluff-catcher. The hand is too strong to raise as a bluff and not strong enough to raise for value.

DP7: Another pyramid problem. Once again, if Villain is getting to the river with too much air and bluffing with all of it, then my bluff catches will be very profitable. This is certainly a board that favors his range, but that doesn’t mean that he’s guaranteed a profitable bluff when he doesn’t have any blockers to my calling range.

DP8: This is a clear call, though not a super-profitable one (unless Villain is bluffing too much, which this one, in retrospect, seems to have been), as I block JT and KQ or other turned two-pairs. Many players won’t go for a third street of value with top pair, at least not for this size, but even against those who do, I expect this to be a profitable call.

PokerWilo asked about my plan for future streets. While it will depend heavily on the runout, I think there’s an underlying assumption to address here, which is that I need to be able to call future barrels. This would be true if we had reason to believe that Villain would always or usually barrel off after betting the flop, and in retrospect it seems like this one might.

However, that’s not information that I had at the time. All I knew is that Villain might keep betting, and he might not. That means that, no matter the turn card, I need to have some bluff-catchers that fold to further bets and some that do not. That way, I punish (or at least do not reward) both players who give up too often and those who barrel too often. On many turn cards, QJ will be in my folding range, but on this one, it’s in my calling range. In a vacuum, there’s nothing wrong with having a range of hands that will call once and fold to further action – in fact, it’s correct.

Thanks for playing, everyone!

The Game: $200 6-max WCOOP Event (Sunday Warm-Up Replacement). Blinds 1600/3200/400. Villain has 145K, Hero has 175K.

Reads/History: Assume each player knows the other to be a successful and experienced tournament player.

Decision Point 1: Villain open-limps As 6d in the small blind.

DP 2: Hero checks Qc Js in the big blind.

Flop (8800 in pot): Kc 8c 3s

DP3: Villain bets 3200.

DP4: Hero calls.

Turn (15200 in pot): Qd.

DP5: Villain bets 7750.

DP6: Hero calls.

River (30700 in pot): 9h

DP 7: Villain bets 22950.

DP8: Hero calls.

Leave a comment about any decision point(s) you find surprising or mistaken, and I’ll share my thoughts later in the week.

One additional note that may be helpful: try to think not just about whether Villain should bluff at all in these spots (he should) or whether Hero should ever call with less than the nuts (he should) but rather whether these specific hands are good for those purposes on each street.

Timestamps

Intro 0:30
Strategy 4:17
Interview 33:27

Strategy

1/1/2 NLHE effective stacks $300

Here raises to $6 in the CO with 7h8h, Button calls, makes it $22 from the big blind. Hero calls and the button folds.

Flop ($49) 10c 8c 6c. Villain bets $20, Hero raises to $85, Villain calls

Turn ($219) 2d. Villain checks, Hero checks.

River 8d. Villain checks, Hero?

Billy’s latest adventure is stand-up comedy. You can check out his work on Facebook and Instagram.

Timestamps

0:30 -hello
3:20 -2NL flopped FD
27:17 -billy

Strategy

2NL 6 max on ACR. Effective stacks $2.60.

I am UTG with KcJc and open $0.06. Villain calls on Button.

Flop comes 8c 2c 5. I bet $0.06 into $0.15. Villain raises to $0.22. I re-raise to $0.82, which leaves the villain to call $0.60 for a pot of $1.79. This raise also leaves me a pot sized bet behind.

Turn is 5c, making the board 8c2c5s 5c. I check and the villain checks behind.

River Ks, making the board 8c2c5s 5c Ks. Hero?

Interestingly, though, Qs Ts is a pure bet for 75% of the pot on the river, so I was off there (it strictly folds to a raise). GTORB shows Villain folding T7 98% of the time on the turn, which probably means it’s strictly a fold and the results just didn’t quite converge, rather than that Villain is truly indifferent between calling and folding.

DP1: Uncontroversial.

DP2: Uncontroversial at this stack depth. With deeper stacks, this is a reasonable BB vs BN 3-betting candidate, but with 100BB a 3-bet will just isolate the stronger part of Villain’s range without the opportunity to put pressure on him with draws.

DP3: I don’t see a case for a leading range. This is a really static board, which means protection isn’t much of a concern, and that’s even more true if Villain is going to c-bet too often. Hero probably has more equity on this flop, especially if Villain’s pre-flop range is too wide, but when the pot gets really large, Villain will have a slight range advantage. So, I’m really not looking to force big pots from out of position. I just rarely mind this flop checking through, so I don’t have incentive to develop a leading range.

DP4: Villain’s bet size is large for such a static board. That’s not a big deal in and of itself, but it becomes a problem if he’s also c-betting at a high frequency. For instance, this particular hand probably isn’t a +EV bet if the bet is going to be this large, as he’ll too often be drawing dead against my calling range.

DP5: I don’t think this is close. It’s similar to the question of whether to donk the flop: I don’t have many hands that want to build the pot here. Even with like A8 I can’t really check-raise for value. If I’m going to turn the hand into a bluff, there will be opportunities to do that later. Also, if I check-raise and then turn a flush, I’m not sure that I get to play it like the nuts. Finally, I have showdown value against a too-frequent c-better!

DP6: This seems to be the spot that surprised the most people. At this point I have a really significant equity advantage, especially against someone who c-bets too often. Most of my flop check-call range is going to be flush draws, trips, and pairs. All of those can value/protection bet this turn for a small size and most won’t fold to a bet. The few unpaired hands in my range love having the opportunity to bluff, and even for small sizing, it’s not that easy for Villain to peel here with, say, an underpair to the board. We should not expect him to bluff this card often. Sometimes he’ll value bet worse on the turn and then check back river, which isn’t great for us, and if he bets twice, Hero’s hand is just a bluff-catcher, albeit a profitable one. Forcing him to fold or put money into the pot on this turn card is good for Hero.

As for sizing, my range is quite strong, so as I said, even at this size underpairs or hands like the one he has have a tough decision. Bare flush draws aren’t going to be a big part of his range, and even when they are, it’s not trivial to peel with them, as he’s rarely drawing to nine clean outs.

DP7: I think this is the sort of hand that should be close to indifferent against my bet. The problem is that he’s drawing slim or dead against my value range and my bluffing range has outs. Betting larger would only help make his decisions easy with hands like this.

DP8: This is a tough card to value bet, given how strong my range is and the fact that I block second-best flush draws. There’s more of a case for betting Qs 8s, though even then check-calling could be best. Better to let my blockers work for me, by playing my hand as a bluff-catcher, rather than against me, by playing it as a thin value bet.

Dp9: This may be the result of an Ed Miller pyramid error. In other words, if Villain peels too wide on the turn, then he simply has too many weak hands in his range on the river. Yes, this is the bottom of his range and he’ll rarely win by checking, but if his bottom is too wide, then trying to bluff with all of it will make my bluff-catches very profitable.

DP10: Trivial.

Thanks for playing!

You can visit Chris Moorman’s website and follow him on Twitter.

Timestamps

0:30 hello & strategy
22:44 chris moorman

Strategy

2/5 table at the rio. I’m in the sb with AsQc. UTG limps for 5, UTG +1 raises to 15. Folds around to a pretty tight player on the button who makes it $45. I call, the limper calls, and UTG +1 calls.

Flop ($180): Ah9s8h

I bet $135. The UTG limper folds and the UTG +1 ships it all in pretty quickly so it’s $455 total – $320 more. Button folds….

It’s called Rate Our Play. I’m going to post a hand featuring multiple decisions points for both myself and my opponent(s). Your job will be to comment on any mistakes (or choices that surprised you in a good way) that you think either of us made. I’ll participate in the comments as I can and return later in the week to post my own thoughts about the most controversial points.

The Game: $10/$25 NLHE at Maryland Live, fresh game. Villain has $2500, I cover.

Reads/History: Villain and I played together for an hour or so the previous night, with him on my immediate left. He made a nuisance of himself, repeatedly 3- and 4-betting me and raising my c-bets. He was playing less than $2500 that night; nevertheless, he did seem to be a serious, probably professional, player. I gave up without a fight in something like five such spots and never really played back at him, so although I doubt he thinks I’m a fish, that history may color his view of me.

Decision Point 1: Villain opens to $75 with Tc 7c on the Button.

DP 2: Hero calls Qs Ts in BB.

Flop: ($160 in pot) As Ad Js.

DP3: Hero checks.

DP4: Villain bets $125.

DP5: Hero calls.

Turn: ($410 in pot) 7s.

DP 6: Hero bets $125.

DP 7: Villain calls.

River: ($660 in pot) 4s.

DP 8: Hero checks.

DP 9: Villain bets $525.

DP 10: Hero calls.

Leave a comment about any decision point(s) you find surprising or mistaken, and I’ll share my thoughts later in the week. Feedback on this format for a post is also encouraged!

I’m currently in Maryland visiting family and have been to Maryland Live a few times. It’s been quite busy; even when I arrived around 4 yesterday there was already a long list for 5/10 and 10/25 and no open tables to start a new game. So, I ended up playing 2/5 for a while.

Maryland Live’s poker room has two stories, and I was in a 2/5 game upstairs, which is annoying because when they call you for another game you have to go downstairs to lock up a seat (or try to get a floor’s attention upstairs, but that’s hard to do). This will become relevant in a moment.

There’s also a bit of history that’s relevant to the hand in question. Just a few hands prior, Players A and B had limped and called a raise from me. We all checked an Axx flop. On a turn Q, Player A bet, B called, and I folded. The river went bet-call again, Player A had A8o, and Player B flashed a Q.

The Hand

Player A ($600) is in the BB. UTG1 ($350) limps, Player B ($950) limps in MP, and I ($1200) make it $25 with Kh Ts on the CO. The BB (Player A), and both limpers call.

Flop (~$100) Ac Qh 6h. Everyone checks.

Turn 9c. Player A bets $60, and the other two call. I raise to $260. I am way less capped than anyone else here, as I can plausibly represent sets and AQ, and judging from prior history these guys are capable of showing up with a ton of weak hands after this action. The biggest risk IMO is that UTG1 has an Ace and just goes with it, as I’ve bet basically his entire stack, but his turn call didn’t seem too confident.

Only Player B calls, leaving about a pot-sized bet in the stacks. Although I was (obviously) bluffing when I raised the turn, I now think there’s a good chance I’m ahead and he’s on some sort of draw. Still, I’ll probably jam a lot of rivers if checked to, just to be safe.

River (~$740) 2h. Villain thinks for a while, moving a lot while he does so. He changes posture a few times, leans his head on his hand, etc. Then he bets $375, a bit over half his stack.

As soon as I saw the river, my first thought was that I should call a shove. The Kh is a very significant blocker to his value range, and I’d expect him to have either a flush or a busted draw if he shoves. I suppose there’s an outside chance I get owned by Kc Jc or a pair with a club draw, but even with that risk it seems like a profitable call.

However, I also have a habit of stationing too much, especially against smaller stakes players who tend to be really risk averse in big pots and to bluff at less-than-optimal frequencies. His body language seemed confident, as generally people who are bluffing will try to avoid looking uncertain or drawing attention to themselves.

Results

As I was pondering this, I heard them announce “ABC for 5/10, second call.” I must have missed the first call, which is another annoying thing about playing upstairs: it’s a bit harder to hear announcements. That frazzled me a bit, as I didn’t want to take up too much time and miss my spot in the 5/10, so I just folded. Villain proudly tabled 8c 3c, and I just barely had time to tell him “Nice hand” as I rushed downstairs to lock up my seat.

It’s not actually a big deal, but man, that would have been such a fun hero call to make. At least I got some “blog equity” out of it anyway.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello & welcome
8:38 – strategy
26:37 – aaron brown interview

Strategy

This hand is from a $365 wsop circuit event. Re-entry. Level 2 blinds are 50/100. Starting stack was 10k and I have almost exactly that amount. Villian in the hand seems to be a competent player/circuit
grinder type probably early 30s.

Preflop: I get 9c9s in MP i open for 250, 1 call behind me, V calls on the button, and sb and bb both call.

Flop (1250): 8c3d2c.

sb and bb both check to me and I bet 1000. 1 guy folds behind me, and V makes it 2300, sb and bb fold so it’s back to me. I ended up putting in a reraise to 5300 and he snap shoved.

Strategy

$2/$5 NLHE

Hero ($1000) limps JJ UTG. MP limps, CO ($900) raises to $30, Button ($900 calls), Hero raises to $125, MP folds, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop ($375 in pot) Kh Qd Jh. Hero bets $175, CO calls, Button folds.

Turn ($725 in pot) 7d. Hero bets $275, CO calls.

River ($1275) 2s. Hero shoves $350, Villain calls.

In the meantime, my latest poker strategy article, “They’re More Afraid of You,” is now appearing in 2+2 Magazine. It’s about using fear to your advantage in poker, but with a particular focus on the WSOP Tag Team event that Nate and I played:

no player wants to be the one to lose all of the team’s chips, especially not in a “boneheaded” way. I mean, if you get Aces cracked, your teammates will understand, but if you call off all of your chips hoping to catch a bluff and get shown a set, how do you explain that to the rest of the team?

Enjoy!

Timestamps

The other fun thing about my starting table was that Ian Simpson was there. If you don’t know Ian, you will soon. We’ve already recorded an interview with him and will publish it perhaps as early as this coming Monday, if it doesn’t get pre-empted by WSOP content (will depend on how much time we find to record in the next few days).

Nate and I had high hopes of getting dinner with Ian and Ryan Hall, but it turned out that the break was only 30 minutes, which caused Ryan to drop out, and Ian had already busted and left, so it was just Nate and me. And in fact, if Nate hadn’t busted shortly before dinner break and volunteered to get a table and place an order in advance, we wouldn’t even have managed that. I really don’t understand the point of a 30 minute dinner break.

Overall I think I played perhaps the best tournament poker I have yet in this event. I got moved away from my awesome starting table and spent the rest of the day tangling (or trying not to tangle) with some tough young Europeans. Unfortunately I just kept losing pre-flop all ins after chipping up.

There was one other hand I was proud of. At 400/800/100, I opened to 2000 with Jc 9c in the CO, and the BB, one of aforementioned Europeans, re-raised to 6000. There are some people who will be quite strong when they three-bet from the big blind, preferring to call most hands that they might use as “light” three-bets, and although I did expect this player to be polarized, I would expect him to have a more good/balanced three-betting strategy even from the big blind. So, I called with about 31K behind.

The flop came Qc 9hs 8c, and he bet 6K. I think a lot of people will just jam here because they know they have a lot of equity and they aren’t comfortable playing future streets. With a slightly weaker hand, say Kc Tc, I think shoving is correct – you’d rather get all in on the flop, ideally with some fold equity, than call and get forced off your equity on a blank turn.

However, I think my hand is strong enough to get all in no matter the turn card, and I don’t think Villain will fold many hands with substantial equity. It’s important to consider all of your options rather than just defaulting to a shove any time you have enough equity to get all in, and here I think there’s more value in calling than shoving.

The turn was a Q, and we both checked. The river was the 3s, we both checked again, and he showed Aces to win the pot. To be clear, although this was a nice side benefit of just calling the flop, avoiding a stack off to overpairs on a few specific runouts is really not the main reason to call the flop. I’m going to be stacking off on most turns, this was just the rare card that neither of us particularly wanted to bet, and that happened to work to my advantage.

I had a weirder spot with the most obviously recreational player at the table, an older woman who was quite friendly and whom I’m sure I’ve seen around before and perhaps even played with. She opened from middle position to 1700 (BB was still 800), and I called with 52s in my BB.

The flop came 877r, and we both checked.

The turn was a 2, I bet 3000, and she called.

The river was a 3, and I was a bit unsure how to proceed. I expected to have the best hand quite often, as I think she’d bet pairs on the flop almost always. Was she really going to call me down twice with Ace-high though? On this board, it seemed plausible. I’ve actually coached a few people who are roughly in her demographic and quite aware of their image and accustomed to people who look like me firing spewy bluffs at people who look like them. So, I bet 6000, and she called with K7s for trips, which it actually surprised me a bit that she would have that based on her pre-flop position (not that she couldn’t have other 7x) and doesn’t really tell me anything one way or the other about the river bet.

A few orbits later, with the BB at 1000, she opened my big blind again, to 2200. This time, I held 22. I decided to jam for my last 18K, based on the fact that she’d showed down the K7s and also A6o from a similar position. I also thought that she might fold a bit too much, perhaps something as strong as AJo. Frankly, though, this is probably a little spewy, and if we’re being honest, I caught a whiff of strength when she looked at her cards.

Sure enough, she called with 88 to bust me. The only consolation was that even if I had called with the 22, I would have flopped a set and lost to a turned 8, so in this case the mistake didn’t actually cost me anything, but it was a mistake nonetheless.

Nate and I are going to play the Team Event at the WSOP today, which should be fun.