Posts Tagged ‘hand reading’

The second installment of my trip report from the main event of the 2010 World Series of Poker, covering Days 3 and 4, has just been published in the September issue of 2+2 Magazine. Here’s an excerpt:

I came into Day 4 with a monster stack relative to the field. I had over 500,000 chips, when the average was about 180,000, ranking me 27th among the more than 1,200 players who remained. Day 4 was a particularly good day for this, as it was also the day that would separate the players who would win nothing from those who would take home at least $19,000. With 747 players to be paid, no one wanted to be eliminated in 748th place (or 762nd, for that matter), which meant that most people were playing more conservatively than usual.  Read the complete post...

Thanks for all your help so far in generating this list. Now that I’ve got a revised version of it, let me try to explain a bit more about what I’m going for here.

I believe that a bet or raise should always have an objective (or objectives), and that you should know your objective(s) before betting. This is crucial both to decide whether to bet at all and to size your bets appropriately. In theory, one ought to be able to write an equation for the value of a bet as a function of some combination of factors on this list.

For example, if I make a pot-sized shove with As Qd on an Qh Ts 5s flop in a heads up pot, I believe the value of that bet would be equal to

Value + Protection + Deception  Read the complete post...

Last week’s double float cost me about half my chips on the first hand of the $700 NAPT-Los Angeles satellite and was not so popular with the commenters. Here’s a similar bluff somewhat deeper in the same tournament this week. Our Villain is a slightly better target: I couldn’t tell you much about his playstyle, but overall I believe he’s a better player than last week’s Villain. I described the previous opponent as a 3rd tier Pocket Fiver, and this guy would be closer to top tier, maybe tier 1.5

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 530 Tournament, 250/500 Blinds 25 Ante (8 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t38150)
CO (t19145)
Button (t46070)
Hero (SB) (t15484)
BB (t40291)
UTG (t10654)
UTG+1 (t16138)
MP1 (t29062)

Hero’s M: 16.30

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K
1 fold, UTG+1 bets t1250, 4 folds, Hero calls t1000, 1 fold  Read the complete post...

I really had no idea what to put UTG+1 on here, but I didn’t think he’d play anything better than 99 this way on the flop. Obviously the K is rather unlikely to hit him, and while his turn bet is weird, I also wasn’t sure he’d check Kings on the river. Given the number of draws out there, though, I do think his line is a good one. I still like my value bet, though, even if knowing he can occasionally have a K.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($162)
Hero (Button) ($414.60)
SB ($309)
BB ($413)
UTG ($522.60)
UTG+1 ($544)
MP1 ($889.40)
MP2 ($335.80)
MP3 ($634.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 9
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $16, 4 folds, Hero calls $16, SB calls $14, 1 fold  Read the complete post...

Honestly I can probably even fold the flop. Granted I have one of the best bluff-catching hands, but it’s just so unlikely Villain is bluffing here. Calling the flop to see what he does on the turn reduces the chance that I end up folding to trips with a worse kicker, but he’s one of the better Rush players, so I kind of doubt he’s overvaluing such a hand this way in the first place.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($648.60)
CO ($602.05)
Button ($160.90)
Hero (SB) ($420)
BB ($413.50)
UTG ($452.90)
UTG+1 ($219)
MP1 ($400)
MP2 ($860.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, 8
5 folds, CO calls $4, Button calls $4, Hero calls $2, BB checks

Flop: ($16) 8, 4, 8 (4 players)
Hero bets $16, BB raises to $48, 2 folds, Hero calls $32  Read the complete post...

This first hand is an interesting juxtaposition to the failed bluff that I posted yesterday. On the one hand, this player was more of a known quantity than was yesterday’s Villain. On the other hand, my range is way wider in this situation, and I think calling with something like 99 is far more justifiable:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($400)

Hero (UTG+1) ($456)

MP1 ($1143.80)

MP2 ($650.90)

MP3 ($451.50)

CO ($58.30)

Button ($197.10)

SB ($446.20)

BB ($960.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, K

1 fold, Hero bets $16, 5 folds, SB calls $14, 1 fold

Flop: ($36) Q, Q, 6 (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets $30, SB calls $30

Turn: ($96) 3 (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets $77, SB calls $77

River: ($250) 8 (2 players)  Read the complete post...

Well, I was right about everything except this player’s ability to read hands/make a remotely disciplined fold. Zeebo Theorem FTW:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 700 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (8 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t3000)
SB (t3000)
BB (t3000)
UTG (t3000)
UTG+1 (t3000)
Hero (MP1) (t3000)
MP2 (t3000)
CO (t3000)

Hero’s M: 100.00

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A
2 folds, Hero bets t60, 3 folds, SB calls t50, BB calls t40

Flop: (t180) 2, 4, 4 (3 players)
SB bets t120, 1 fold, Hero calls t120

Turn: (t420) 3 (2 players)
SB bets t300, Hero calls t300

River: (t1020) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t1020, SB calls t1020

Total pot: t3060

Results:
SB had 8, 8 (full house, fours over eights).
Hero had K, A (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: SB won t3060

The problem: I’ve usually got the best hand, but I don’t think a bet is getting called by worse.

The solution: Bet small and call the check-raise.

The catch: They always have it.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (5 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($5810)
SB ($5107)
BB ($13717)
UTG ($10095)
MP ($5000)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, Q
UTG bets $150, 1 fold, Hero calls $150, 2 folds

Flop: ($375) 9, 8, Q (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($375) K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $123, UTG calls $123

River: ($621) 10 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $222, UTG raises to $1140, Hero calls $918

Total pot: $2901 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero mucked K, Q (two pair, Kings and Queens).
UTG had J, Q (straight, King high).
Outcome: UTG won $2899  Read the complete post...