Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (5 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1591)
SB ($1561)
BB ($3733)
UTG ($5231.95)
Hero (MP) ($4163)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, A
1 fold, Hero bets $40, 1 fold, SB calls $30, BB calls $20

Flop: ($120) 4, 10, Q (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $80, Hero raises to $188, SB calls $188, BB raises to $560, Hero calls $372, SB calls $372

Turn: ($1800) Q (3 players)

River: ($1800) 7 (3 players)

Total pot: $1800 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB had 7, 5 (flush, Queen high).
BB had J, K (one pair, Queens).
Hero had K, A (flush, Ace high).
Outcome: Hero won $1797

A comment on a recent post about the squeeze play observed that a pretty intense dynamic can arise in situations where more than one player recognizes a good squeezing opportunity. I think this is a good example:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($901.50)
UTG+1 ($1660.05)
MP1 ($1289.50)
MP2 ($1987)
MP3 ($5354)
CO ($1020.35)
Hero (Button) ($3507)
SB ($1016.75)
BB ($4832.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, A
5 folds, CO bets $33, Hero calls $33, 1 fold, BB raises to $160, CO calls $127, Hero raises to $480, 1 fold, CO calls $320

Flop: ($1138.50) J, 8, 7 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3025.50 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $1138.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show Q, A (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $1135.50

Note the stack sizes here: BB and I are effectively 350BB deep, while CO and I are only 100BB deep. BB is decent but excessively aggressive pre-flop. CO is loose and weak. Granted it’s not the most plausible line on my part since I didn’t 3-bet initially, but there isn’t too much BB can do about it given our stack depth. Frankly, my AQ is probably ahead of his range anyway, and it would be tough for him to pull off a 5-bet bluff.

Against CO, I’m semi-bluffing. I’m probably in bad shape when the money goes in, but I’m far from dead, and I think I have a decent fold equity in a large pot. Not to mention that he is apparently capable of playing the hand in the worst way possible. He claimed to have folded AKs.

…because sometimes, you aren’t bluffing:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($14268.50)
Hero (SB) ($4179.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, Q
Hero bets $60, BB calls $40

Flop: ($120) K, J, J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $77, BB calls $77

Turn: ($274) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($274) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $210, Hero calls $210

Total pot: $694 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 7, Q (one pair, Jacks).
BB had Q, 9 (one pair, Jacks).
Outcome: BB won $693.50

Although I didn’t recognize his name, this guy played very well, and it didn’t take me long to quit him. He’d been making a lot of good, thin value check-raises on dry flops like this, and he very rarely folded them. Thus, I thought his flop call represented either very marginal showdown value or a float with the intention of bluffing the river. Turns out it was both, which is really as it should be. I think he doesn’t turn Ax into a bluff on the river, which is why I call with Q-high, but I think this is exactly the right way for him to play Q9.

Hero (MP) ($4429.50)
CO ($7120)
Button ($2587)
SB ($4449.30)
BB ($4169)
UTG ($712.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 4, 4
UTG calls $20, Hero bets $90, 1 fold, Button calls $90, 2 folds, UTG calls $70

Flop: ($300) 3, 4, 6 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $187, Button calls $187, 1 fold

Turn: ($674) J (2 players)
Hero bets $444, Button calls $444

River: ($1562) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1225, Hero calls $1225

Total pot: $4012 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 6, 7 (one pair, sixes).
Hero had 4, 4 (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: Hero won $4009

This guy isn’t calling the turn with a bare draw, so I’m not too concerned about him having the flush. He could have a big draw, something like Ah5h, that he chose to “slowplay”, or maybe a flush with the Jh, but I don’t think he has a flush too often. His most likely hand is something marginal with showdown value, either a bare pair that was bluff catching or a pair plus draw.

A less sophisticated opponent is just going to check back the river very often and be happy to show down his pair. A player of this guy’s caliber, though, will realize that it may be better to turn a weak pair into a bluff. Especially when I don’t bet at a good bluff card on the river, I no longer have a lot of the bluffy part of my range that he was beating on the turn. He may get real heroic on the river, but overall I think he turns a pair into a bluff (or very occasionally value bets worse) more often than he calls with worse. Though bet-calling here might be even sexier, come to think of it….

]]> http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2009/10/advanced-bluff-induction/feed/ 2 http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2009/10/the-flop-squeeze-play/ http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2009/10/the-flop-squeeze-play/#comments Tue, 20 Oct 2009 13:41:49 +0000 foucault http://www.thinkingpoker.net/?p=3408 $5/$10 NLHE 6-handed game. Villains have about $1000 each, I cover. MP opens to $35, BTN calls, I call 9h 7h in the BB.

Flop Ks 6h 2d. I check, MP bets $70 into $105 pot, BTN calls, I raise to $190, both fold. Why?

The logic here is very similar to the pre-flop squeeze play, particularly at the time that Harrington was writing his first book (ie before most people knew what a squeeze play was). The original better has a very wide range, and consequently so does the caller, especially since he didn’t 3-bet preflop. My raise into both of them represents strength in a spot where they don’t commonly see a bluff, not to mention that there is extra pressure on the original better since he still has someone left to act behind him.

I expect MP to fold unless he has a pair of K’s or better. While all of those hands are in his range, all he’s done so far is raise pre-flop (something this particular player did often) and then bet a pretty ideal flop. His range is plenty wide, and he probably folds 80% of the time or more.

The BTN’s range is wider but less likely to contain very strong hands. Since he didn’t reraise, he will rarely have AK, KK, or AA. Thus, while he can have KQ, 66, or 22, he can also have weaker pocket pairs or even floats like AQ/AJ. My rough guess is that he folds about 60% of the time.

That’s enough to make the play immediately profitable, as I’m risking just $190 to win $245. Notice here, though, that I also have several back door draws. If either player calls me, I’m shoving any heart and any 8 on the turn. Since I expect BTN’s range to be weaker, I’ll also shove 9′s, 8′s, and 7′s against him as a semi-bluff, trying to get him off of stuff like KT or a stubborn TT. Against MP, though, I’d check-fold those same cards, as he needs a stronger hand to call the flop and thus will not fold the turn as often.

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