Timestamps

0:30 – hello and welcome
4:15 – GirafGanger7

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (5 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1591)
SB ($1561)
BB ($3733)
UTG ($5231.95)
Hero (MP) ($4163)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, A
1 fold, Hero bets $40, 1 fold, SB calls $30, BB calls $20

Flop: ($120) 4, 10, Q (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $80, Hero raises to $188, SB calls $188, BB raises to $560, Hero calls $372, SB calls $372

Turn: ($1800) Q (3 players)

River: ($1800) 7 (3 players)

Total pot: $1800 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB had 7, 5 (flush, Queen high).
BB had J, K (one pair, Queens).
Hero had K, A (flush, Ace high).
Outcome: Hero won $1797

A comment on a recent post about the squeeze play observed that a pretty intense dynamic can arise in situations where more than one player recognizes a good squeezing opportunity. I think this is a good example:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($901.50)
UTG+1 ($1660.05)
MP1 ($1289.50)
MP2 ($1987)
MP3 ($5354)
CO ($1020.35)
Hero (Button) ($3507)
SB ($1016.75)
BB ($4832.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, A
5 folds, CO bets $33, Hero calls $33, 1 fold, BB raises to $160, CO calls $127, Hero raises to $480, 1 fold, CO calls $320

Flop: ($1138.50) J, 8, 7 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3025.50 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $1138.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show Q, A (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $1135.50

Note the stack sizes here: BB and I are effectively 350BB deep, while CO and I are only 100BB deep. BB is decent but excessively aggressive pre-flop. CO is loose and weak. Granted it’s not the most plausible line on my part since I didn’t 3-bet initially, but there isn’t too much BB can do about it given our stack depth. Frankly, my AQ is probably ahead of his range anyway, and it would be tough for him to pull off a 5-bet bluff.

Against CO, I’m semi-bluffing. I’m probably in bad shape when the money goes in, but I’m far from dead, and I think I have a decent fold equity in a large pot. Not to mention that he is apparently capable of playing the hand in the worst way possible. He claimed to have folded AKs.

…because sometimes, you aren’t bluffing:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($14268.50)
Hero (SB) ($4179.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, Q
Hero bets $60, BB calls $40

Flop: ($120) K, J, J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $77, BB calls $77

Turn: ($274) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($274) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $210, Hero calls $210

Total pot: $694 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 7, Q (one pair, Jacks).
BB had Q, 9 (one pair, Jacks).
Outcome: BB won $693.50

Although I didn’t recognize his name, this guy played very well, and it didn’t take me long to quit him. He’d been making a lot of good, thin value check-raises on dry flops like this, and he very rarely folded them. Thus, I thought his flop call represented either very marginal showdown value or a float with the intention of bluffing the river. Turns out it was both, which is really as it should be. I think he doesn’t turn Ax into a bluff on the river, which is why I call with Q-high, but I think this is exactly the right way for him to play Q9.

Hero (MP) ($4429.50)
CO ($7120)
Button ($2587)
SB ($4449.30)
BB ($4169)
UTG ($712.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 4, 4
UTG calls $20, Hero bets $90, 1 fold, Button calls $90, 2 folds, UTG calls $70

Flop: ($300) 3, 4, 6 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $187, Button calls $187, 1 fold

Turn: ($674) J (2 players)
Hero bets $444, Button calls $444

River: ($1562) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1225, Hero calls $1225

Total pot: $4012 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 6, 7 (one pair, sixes).
Hero had 4, 4 (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: Hero won $4009

This guy isn’t calling the turn with a bare draw, so I’m not too concerned about him having the flush. He could have a big draw, something like Ah5h, that he chose to “slowplay”, or maybe a flush with the Jh, but I don’t think he has a flush too often. His most likely hand is something marginal with showdown value, either a bare pair that was bluff catching or a pair plus draw.

A less sophisticated opponent is just going to check back the river very often and be happy to show down his pair. A player of this guy’s caliber, though, will realize that it may be better to turn a weak pair into a bluff. Especially when I don’t bet at a good bluff card on the river, I no longer have a lot of the bluffy part of my range that he was beating on the turn. He may get real heroic on the river, but overall I think he turns a pair into a bluff (or very occasionally value bets worse) more often than he calls with worse. Though bet-calling here might be even sexier, come to think of it….

Flop Ks 6h 2d. I check, MP bets $70 into $105 pot, BTN calls, I raise to $190, both fold. Why?

The logic here is very similar to the pre-flop squeeze play, particularly at the time that Harrington was writing his first book (ie before most people knew what a squeeze play was). The original better has a very wide range, and consequently so does the caller, especially since he didn’t 3-bet preflop. My raise into both of them represents strength in a spot where they don’t commonly see a bluff, not to mention that there is extra pressure on the original better since he still has someone left to act behind him.

I expect MP to fold unless he has a pair of K’s or better. While all of those hands are in his range, all he’s done so far is raise pre-flop (something this particular player did often) and then bet a pretty ideal flop. His range is plenty wide, and he probably folds 80% of the time or more.

The BTN’s range is wider but less likely to contain very strong hands. Since he didn’t reraise, he will rarely have AK, KK, or AA. Thus, while he can have KQ, 66, or 22, he can also have weaker pocket pairs or even floats like AQ/AJ. My rough guess is that he folds about 60% of the time.

That’s enough to make the play immediately profitable, as I’m risking just $190 to win $245. Notice here, though, that I also have several back door draws. If either player calls me, I’m shoving any heart and any 8 on the turn. Since I expect BTN’s range to be weaker, I’ll also shove 9’s, 8’s, and 7’s against him as a semi-bluff, trying to get him off of stuff like KT or a stubborn TT. Against MP, though, I’d check-fold those same cards, as he needs a stronger hand to call the flop and thus will not fold the turn as often.

$5/$10 NLHE, $1100 effective stacks. Action folds to a decent TAG regular in the SB, he opens to $30, I make it $90 with AJo, he makes it $200, I call. Flop is AJ4 rainbow. He bets about $200, I call. Turn is an off-suit 6 7. He checks, I check. River is a 9, he checks, I shove something like $650 into the $800 pot, and he calls with A6s.

There are two major disadvantages to slowplaying that I think I can pretty well avoid in this situation:

1. Losing the Pot. Giving a free card risks improving your opponent to a better hand or letting a scare card fall that enables your opponent to bluff you out of the pot.

2. Losing Additional Bets. When your opponent has a second-best hand that can pay off multiple bets, slow-playing can cost you one or more bets. In big bet games, this is especially bad since the pot size grows geometrically. In other words, the bet that you miss is usually a lot bigger than the bet that you get.

These two risks are somewhat in tension with each other. On the one hand, it is safer to slowplay in a small pot, since if you do accidentally let your opponent draw to a better hand for free, at least you haven’t cost yourself a large pot. On the other hand, a small pot usually means a lot of money left in the effective stacks, and slowplaying may prevent you from building the pot in a way that will enable you to take your opponent’s entire stack.

In practice, negotiating this tension means estimating how often Villain will have  a hand that can stand up to heavy pressure right away, how often a free card will cost you the pot ‘(and possibly more bets as well), how often a free card will improve Villain to a second-best hand that can pay you off, how often your slowplay will induce a bluff from a hand that would have folded, how often your slowplay will induce a call or value bet from a hand that would have folded, and even how slowplaying this hand will protect your range in the future. In other words, you have to play poker.

In the hand above, the pot was large and I was in position, so there was  no risk of not getting the money in by the river.  Whether I shove the turn or check the turn and call or shove the river, all the money gets in. There were also very few draws possible, so while Villain could make a very unlikely three-of-a-kind, a free card was more likely to give him something like a worse two pair. The only way his two pair could beat mine would be with AK or AQ, and since those hands aren’t folding the turn anyway, the result is the same whether I slowplay or not.

The biggest risk of slowplaying here is that checking the turn and betting the river actually looks stronger than just betting the turn. When I bet the turn, my hand looks either like a float that is now bluffing or a monster hand. When I check the turn and bet the river, a bluff looks a lot less likely (since I probably would have bet the turn), so it’s more likely that I have showdown value. That means I either flopped a monster, flopped a weak made hand that improved, or am turning a weak made hand into a bluff. There’s not much reason for the latter, so I think the river bet should actually be read as quite strong.

I don’t think Villain’s call on the river is a good one, and I didn’t take this line hoping to get called light on the river. Rather, I thought I might induce bluffs or even value bets from hands that would fold to a turn bet. But hey, this works too.

SB ($3829.50)
BB ($1000)
Hero (UTG) ($4795.55)
MP ($1490)
Button ($2152.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, Q
Hero bets $40, MP raises to $120, 3 folds, Hero calls $80

Flop: ($262.50) 5, J, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $140, Hero calls $140

Turn: ($542.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $330, Hero calls $330

River: ($1202.50) K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

Total pot: $1202.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had Q, Q (three of a kind, Queens).
MP had K, A (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: Hero won $1199.50

On the river, there’s about $1000 left in Villain’s stack, so less than a pot-sized bet. I see a lot of people shove here, but I actually like his check back. It’s not what I expected, and in fact part of the reason I was slowplaying was that I thought he’d probably value bet quite a few worse hands on the river. If he’s checking AK and presumably AA here, though, I’m not sure if that means I should play my hand faster. I guess I could see check-raising the flop, but with his turn bet sizing, I doubt he’s calling a check-shove there.

No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) – Hold’em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($3183.65)
SB ($1679.40)
BB ($2204)
Hero (UTG) ($3188.50)
MP ($1998.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, 10
Hero bets $42.50, 2 folds, SB calls $37.50, BB calls $32.50

Flop: ($127.50) 9, Q, 4 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $99, 1 fold, BB calls $99

Turn: ($325.50) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $255, BB calls $255

River: ($835.50) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $690, 1 fold

Total pot: $835.50

Results:
Hero had K, 10 (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: Hero won $1530

Ordinarily I would say this isn’t a good board to bluff into two players, but it’s a little different against two guys calling out of the blinds. To put it simply, I just think my range is so much stronger than theirs on this board that I can expect to take it down on enough turns/rivers if not immediately on the flop. I’m not betting my full range on the flop, but an overcard and a gutshot is good enough.

When I don’t get raised on the flop, it’s that much less likely that BB has a hand worth writing home about. The turn is super-unlikely to improve him, so I fire again.

Once he calls a sizeable turn bet, I’m not expecting to see either a flush draw or trips, making the river an easy and profitable bluff.