This hand was from the Poker Stars $500 weekly. Villain is Roothlus, a very successful MTT pro who teaches at Poker X Factor and is sponsored by Ultimate Bet (but let’s not go there right now). He’s smart but definitely on the TAG/nitty side. He knows and respects me and probably has a good idea of how I expect him to play. MP is a random fish.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 530 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (9 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t11755)
SB (t7968)
BB (t9775)
UTG (t28380)
UTG+1 (t7255)
Hero (MP1) (t21954)
MP2 (t8381)
MP3 (t11250)
CO (t6950)

Hero’s M: 73.18

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, K
2 folds, Hero bets t555, MP2 calls t555, MP3 raises to t2300, 4 folds, Hero calls t1745, 1 fold

Flop: (t5455) 7, 9, Q (2 players)
Hero bets t19654 (All-In), MP3 calls t8950 (All-In)

Turn: (t23355) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t23355) 8 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t23355

Results:
Hero had A, K (one pair, Queens).
MP3 had 10, 9 (two pair, Queens and nines).
Outcome: MP3 won t23355

Clearly I was way off on his range, but for whatever reason I was near certain that Roothlus also had AK here. Stack sizes are all wrong for a traditional stop-and-go, plus there’s the problem of the third player in the pot. Here, though, I am not trying to fold out better hands post-flop, but rather fold out a chop. I have no problem with MP coming along, in fact anything he continues with when I call but would fold to a shove is probably to my benefit anyway.

Because it looks like I’m trying to drag MP along, my flat call has to look really strong to Roothlus. Not that AK isn’t strong, but I think it looks even stronger than that, like exactly KK/AA. Granted that’s not really consistent with open shoving the flop, but remember I’m only trying to get him off of AK here. I think it’s a tough hero call to make, and in fact he tanked for a really long time before calling with T9.

Still, I think it’s more effective to check the flop, maybe even check-raise all in. The risk there is that Roothlus bluff shoves or pot commits himself with something he would have folded. Really though, I think I just look too strong for him to bet even a pretty good hand like AQ, let alone a bluff. Checking flop and betting turn looks a lot more credible as a monster and is probably what I should have done.

More importantly, though, I should have just shoved pre-flop. If he’s showing up here with T9, I can’t afford to let him see a flop and I can’t afford to let him fold dominated hands like AJ when he whiffs the flop.

Last night, in the $300 rebuy FTOPS event, I was rolling along nicely and then fell off the wagon:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 170/340 Blinds 25 Ante (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t13511)
UTG (t19356)
MP (t20140)
CO (t18855)
Button (t12236)
Hero (SB) (t19919)
Hero’s M: 30.18

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, K
4 folds, Hero bets t1020, BB calls t680

Flop: (t2190) 9, 2, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets t1333, BB raises to t3125, Hero raises to t18874 (All-In), BB calls t9341 (All-In)

Turn: (t27122) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t27122) A (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t27122

Results:
Hero had 8, K (one pair, twos).
BB had A, 9 (two pair, Aces and nines).
Outcome: BB won t27122

This is just such a perfect spot for a bluff raise on the flop (I have a wide range, this is a tough flop for either of us to hit, and the stack sizes don’t give me many options even if I don’t believe him). Although I was new to the table and didn’t recognize his screenname, I did have some reason to think he was capable of making plays: he 3-bet me on his button at the first opportunity.

When dealing with an essentially unknown villain, though, shoving any two is not the best way to proceed. I can minimize exploitability by bluff shoving hands that will have the best equity vs. his calling range: draws, hands that paired the board, and even two overcards. Shoving something as weak as K8 makes me easily exploitable by a strategy this guy may well be employing, which is only raising when he has a hand good enough to call a shove. And naturally in a spot where he ought to be raising a huge range he has managed to flop top pair top kicker. AKDHAKLSFHSKLFHASFKH

Half an hour earlier than I was expecting, a window popped up with my table. “Welcome to the $2000+$100 single table PCA satellite” it read, or something to that effect. Whoops.

It was definitely too late to unregister through the Poker Stars client. I quickly surveyed my opponents. They were a who’s who of high stakes sit-and-go sharks: Zangbezan, ActionJeff, busto_soon, stevie444, a few others recognized, and two I did not. Even the ones I recognized weren’t necessarily soft spots. For all I know, they could have been fantastic sit-and-go specialists. I hate the things myself and haven’t played them regularly for years. I was sure my proficiency with the proper and shoving and calling ranges was going to be rusty.

I vaguely remembered hearing about a $10 Sit-and-go player who accidentally registered for a $1000 but managed to sit out, e-mail support, and get his money refunded. I thought about trying something similar, but refunds are for wimps. To this day, I still judge a childhood friend of mine who asked for his money back when he misread his hand in a $5 pot at one of our high school home games.

No, that was out of the question. The only thing to do was take my lumps and tough it out. An hour and a half later, I had W$14,130 in my account. Ship it.

What is it with me losing three-way pre-flop all ins with Aces on the bubble of the final table of big Full Tilt tournaments? This is with 20 people left in the $300 6-max Saturday tournament.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 1000/2000 Blinds 250 Ante (5 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP (t85806)
Button (t128054)
SB (t45228)
BB (t72671)
Hero (UTG) (t120318)

Hero’s M: 28.31

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
Hero bets t4888, MP calls t4888, 1 fold, SB raises to t44978 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero raises to t85068, MP raises to t85556 (All-In), Hero calls t488

Flop: (t219340) Q, 6, K (3 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t219340) 4 (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t219340) 8 (3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t219340
Results:
SB had J, Q (flush, King high).
Hero had A, A (one pair, Aces).
MP had Q, Q (three of a kind, Queens).
Outcome: SB won t138184, MP won t81156

But with some skillful play…

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 2000/4000 Blinds 500 Ante (5 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t120360)
SB (t212041)
BB (t130758)
UTG (t221896)
Hero (MP) (t149764)

Hero’s M: 17.62

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, K
UTG bets t9440, Hero calls t9440, 3 folds

Flop: (t27380) 6, Q, 4 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t27380) 3 (2 players)
UTG bets t16660, Hero raises to t33333, UTG calls t16673

River: (t94046) 9 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets t106491 (All-In), UTG calls t106491

Total pot: t307028

Results:
UTG had 9, A (one pair, nines).
Hero had Q, K (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: Hero won t307028

…and a little luck:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 2000/4000 Blinds 500 Ante (5 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t160688)
MP (t209041)
Button (t116524)
SB (t62398)
Hero (BB) (t286168)

Hero’s M: 33.67

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, 2
1 fold, MP bets t8875, 2 folds, Hero calls t4875

Flop: (t22250) J, 8, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets t7777, MP raises to t23575, Hero raises to t39373, MP raises to t199666 (All-In), Hero calls t160293

Turn: (t421582) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t421582) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t421582

Results:
Hero had J, 2 (two pair, Jacks and eights).
MP had 4, A (one pair, eights).
Outcome: Hero won t421582

I can still win one of these things!

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 8000/16000 Blinds 2000 Ante (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) (t1554346)
SB (t215654)

Hero’s M: 55.51

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6, A
SB bets t213654 (All-In), Hero calls t197654

Flop: (t431308) 7, A, 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t431308) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t431308) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t431308

Results:
SB had 9, Q (one pair, sevens).
Hero had 6, A (two pair, Aces and sevens).
Outcome: Hero won t431308

Video of final table forthcoming on Poker Savvy Plus.

“Super Satellite
Buy-In: $665.00/$35.00 USD
585 players
Total Prize Pool: $389025.00 USD
Target Tournament #201001051 Buy-In: $14130.00 USD
25 tickets to the target tournament

Tournament started 2009/11/01 18:00:00 ET

Dear foucault82,

Congratulations – You have won a package for the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure (PCA) 2010 Main Event. The PCA is at the Atlantis Resort and Casino on Paradise Island in the Bahamas! You’ll be checking in at the Atlantis on Monday, January 4, 2010, and checking out on Tuesday, January 12. Your hotel reservation covers you and one guest.”

I go back and forth on whether it’s even worth playing the satellites for these big buy-in international tournaments. By the time you pay travel expenses, currency exchange vig, etc., the tournaments aren’t generally such a hot investment. Not to mention the variance that comes with playing these things on my own money.

I’m usually able to convince myself that the satellites themselves are usually a uniquely good value. They tend to be some of the higher buy-in events offered on Stars, and I think my edge is particularly large in the satellite format because so many people tend to play so badly on the bubble.

At least, they usually do. The bubble in this one was actually quite tough. There were more than a few players left whom I knew to be strong, and even a lot of the names I didn’t recognize seemed to be playing at a pretty high level. Naturally there were a few weaker players, but all in all it was about the highest quality of play I’ve seen on a satellite bubble.

Well, at least I get a vacation in the Caribbean out of it .