Posts Tagged ‘poker theory’

Someone e-mailed me this question recently, and as I began to compose an answer, it occurred to me that it could make for an interesting blog post:

Recently a friend of mine and I were batting around a question about the pros.

Essentially it came down to this:
“Do pros grinding online make more money from value bets, or from bluffs?”

I don’t want to go any further into our analysis, but I was wondering what you think.

In one sense, the answer is easy: value bets make more money than bluffs. Strong hands make more money than weak ones. It’s pretty rare that I win a guy’s whole stack on a bluff, but I do it all the time with value bets.

The real answer, though, is that your value never comes solely from one or the other. Here’s a simple demonstration:

You hold As Ks on a Qs Ts 8h 4d 2s board. There is $100 in the pot, and $100 left in the effective stacks. You shove, and your opponent calls 50% of the time. So, half the time you win $100, and half the time you win $200, for a final EV of $150.  Read the complete post...

Small Stakes No-Limit Hold ‘em
by Ed Miller, Sunny Mehta, and Matt Flynn

Professional No Limit Hold ‘Em, Volume 1 (PNLHE) is one of my all-time favorite poker books and the one that I recommend to anyone looking to get started to the game. I eagerly awaited the publication of Volume 2, which was rumored to deal with short-handed games and more advanced concepts, and mourned its loss when its authors parted ways with Two Plus Two Publishing.

Ed Miller, Sunny Mehta, and Matt Flynn ultimately self-published the book now known as Small Stakes No-Limit Hold ‘Em (SSNL), and it’s even better than I’d hoped.

Read the full review including my “Two-Minute Recommendation” in the Book Reviews Section of the site.

Read the full review