GTO Wizard analysis of Andrew’s hand

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In my latest series for Tournament Poker Edge, I review the key hands and tough decisions that brought me to the final two tables.

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Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
42:21 Strategy

Links

Mediocre Poker Coaching with Carlos
Tournament Poker Edge
Reading Poker Tells (the best books/videos on live poker tells)

Strategy

Blinds 500/1000/100. Hero opens to 3K with Ac Qh on the BN, BB calls.
Flop (7500) T97cc Both check.
Turn (7500) 4c BB bets 6K, Hero calls.
River (20,500) 9s. BB bets 13K, Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 hello & welcome
4:46 strategy
23:15 Paul Runge

Strategy

I am writing about a hand that played out this Summer at a tournament table where Andrew was sitting, along with Annete Oberstatd and Maria Konnikova. It was an $1100 buyin tourney at the Wynn..

It was fairly early stage (300/600/50). I had about 19k, and everyone else in this hand was right around 22-25k.

I was in the SB and had AQh. Annette opened utg+1 to 1500. The South American utg+2 called, and either Andrew or Maria in seats 5 and 6 called (sorry, I don’t recall which one, but it quickly becomes irrelevant). I flatted.

The player to my left in the BB raised to 5500.

Annette called, the next two players folded, and the betting was on me. Pot was 1350 plus 6000 (1500×4) plus 9500 (5500 + 4000 call) = 16850.

Matt’s previous episodes (before and after the 2016 election, and once as a guest host filling in for Andrew) are among our most popular, and we’re excited to have him back! For more great insight from Matt, be sure to follow him on Twitter, listen to his podcast, and subscribe to his newsletter.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
3:00 Strategy
16:12 Matt Glassman

Oh some guy named Shawn Deeb also still in the hunt.

Early on, I raised 55 on my CO and called a 3-bet from a fishy player in the BB. I made a questionable call on a 932 flop, then turned a 5 to stack his KK.

The table kept getting tougher, with Amnon Fillippi and a few other solid players (but also Dennis Phillips) filling empty seats. A tight-bad player open limped for 300, I made it 1300 with QQ, Jon called, and Amnon shoved 15K from the Button. I reshoved without much thought but ran into AA.

I’d been playing pretty tightly, but at 300/600/75 I opened to 1600 with K9o in MP3. Jon called in the CO, and Amnon called in the BB. Flop came Kh Kd 6d. I bet slightly over half pot, Jon folded, and Amnon called. Turn 8h, he checks, I bet slightly over half pot again, 6400. He tanks and shoves about 20K, I call, he has Jd 5d. River Qd, and he doubles through me and leaves me at 24K.

I work my way up to about 28K when an aggressive younger guy opens to 2100 in the CO (blinds 400/800/100). Dennis Phillips calls on the Button, and I pick up AA in the SB. I make it 6900, kid 4-bets, Dennis folds what he later claimed was JJ, and I more than double up to about 60K.

A few hands later, I open to 2400 with JJ UTG+1. Dennis re-raises to 6500 with about 21K behind. I reluctantly fold.

Overall I had a tough seat at a tough table and what I’d consider below average luck, but I managed to come out of it with 51,400 chips. We started with 872 runners, and there are 510 left, so my stack is almost exactly average, which would be 51,294.

Sorry the Twitter updates were sporadic, my e-mail-to-Twitter thing isn’t working quite right.

Last night, in the $300 rebuy FTOPS event, I was rolling along nicely and then fell off the wagon:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 170/340 Blinds 25 Ante (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t13511)
UTG (t19356)
MP (t20140)
CO (t18855)
Button (t12236)
Hero (SB) (t19919)
Hero’s M: 30.18

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, K
4 folds, Hero bets t1020, BB calls t680

Flop: (t2190) 9, 2, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets t1333, BB raises to t3125, Hero raises to t18874 (All-In), BB calls t9341 (All-In)

Turn: (t27122) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t27122) A (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t27122

Results:
Hero had 8, K (one pair, twos).
BB had A, 9 (two pair, Aces and nines).
Outcome: BB won t27122

This is just such a perfect spot for a bluff raise on the flop (I have a wide range, this is a tough flop for either of us to hit, and the stack sizes don’t give me many options even if I don’t believe him). Although I was new to the table and didn’t recognize his screenname, I did have some reason to think he was capable of making plays: he 3-bet me on his button at the first opportunity.

When dealing with an essentially unknown villain, though, shoving any two is not the best way to proceed. I can minimize exploitability by bluff shoving hands that will have the best equity vs. his calling range: draws, hands that paired the board, and even two overcards. Shoving something as weak as K8 makes me easily exploitable by a strategy this guy may well be employing, which is only raising when he has a hand good enough to call a shove. And naturally in a spot where he ought to be raising a huge range he has managed to flop top pair top kicker. AKDHAKLSFHSKLFHASFKH

Half an hour earlier than I was expecting, a window popped up with my table. “Welcome to the $2000+$100 single table PCA satellite” it read, or something to that effect. Whoops.

It was definitely too late to unregister through the Poker Stars client. I quickly surveyed my opponents. They were a who’s who of high stakes sit-and-go sharks: Zangbezan, ActionJeff, busto_soon, stevie444, a few others recognized, and two I did not. Even the ones I recognized weren’t necessarily soft spots. For all I know, they could have been fantastic sit-and-go specialists. I hate the things myself and haven’t played them regularly for years. I was sure my proficiency with the proper and shoving and calling ranges was going to be rusty.

I vaguely remembered hearing about a $10 Sit-and-go player who accidentally registered for a $1000 but managed to sit out, e-mail support, and get his money refunded. I thought about trying something similar, but refunds are for wimps. To this day, I still judge a childhood friend of mine who asked for his money back when he misread his hand in a $5 pot at one of our high school home games.

No, that was out of the question. The only thing to do was take my lumps and tough it out. An hour and a half later, I had W$14,130 in my account. Ship it.

What is it with me losing three-way pre-flop all ins with Aces on the bubble of the final table of big Full Tilt tournaments? This is with 20 people left in the $300 6-max Saturday tournament.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 1000/2000 Blinds 250 Ante (5 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP (t85806)
Button (t128054)
SB (t45228)
BB (t72671)
Hero (UTG) (t120318)

Hero’s M: 28.31

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
Hero bets t4888, MP calls t4888, 1 fold, SB raises to t44978 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero raises to t85068, MP raises to t85556 (All-In), Hero calls t488

Flop: (t219340) Q, 6, K (3 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t219340) 4 (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t219340) 8 (3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t219340
Results:
SB had J, Q (flush, King high).
Hero had A, A (one pair, Aces).
MP had Q, Q (three of a kind, Queens).
Outcome: SB won t138184, MP won t81156

But with some skillful play…

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 2000/4000 Blinds 500 Ante (5 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t120360)
SB (t212041)
BB (t130758)
UTG (t221896)
Hero (MP) (t149764)

Hero’s M: 17.62

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, K
UTG bets t9440, Hero calls t9440, 3 folds

Flop: (t27380) 6, Q, 4 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t27380) 3 (2 players)
UTG bets t16660, Hero raises to t33333, UTG calls t16673

River: (t94046) 9 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets t106491 (All-In), UTG calls t106491

Total pot: t307028

Results:
UTG had 9, A (one pair, nines).
Hero had Q, K (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: Hero won t307028

…and a little luck:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 2000/4000 Blinds 500 Ante (5 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t160688)
MP (t209041)
Button (t116524)
SB (t62398)
Hero (BB) (t286168)

Hero’s M: 33.67

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, 2
1 fold, MP bets t8875, 2 folds, Hero calls t4875

Flop: (t22250) J, 8, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets t7777, MP raises to t23575, Hero raises to t39373, MP raises to t199666 (All-In), Hero calls t160293

Turn: (t421582) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t421582) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t421582

Results:
Hero had J, 2 (two pair, Jacks and eights).
MP had 4, A (one pair, eights).
Outcome: Hero won t421582

I can still win one of these things!

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 8000/16000 Blinds 2000 Ante (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) (t1554346)
SB (t215654)

Hero’s M: 55.51

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6, A
SB bets t213654 (All-In), Hero calls t197654

Flop: (t431308) 7, A, 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t431308) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t431308) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t431308

Results:
SB had 9, Q (one pair, sevens).
Hero had 6, A (two pair, Aces and sevens).
Outcome: Hero won t431308

Video of final table forthcoming on Poker Savvy Plus.

“Super Satellite
Buy-In: $665.00/$35.00 USD
585 players
Total Prize Pool: $389025.00 USD
Target Tournament #201001051 Buy-In: $14130.00 USD
25 tickets to the target tournament

Tournament started 2009/11/01 18:00:00 ET

Dear foucault82,

Congratulations – You have won a package for the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure (PCA) 2010 Main Event. The PCA is at the Atlantis Resort and Casino on Paradise Island in the Bahamas! You’ll be checking in at the Atlantis on Monday, January 4, 2010, and checking out on Tuesday, January 12. Your hotel reservation covers you and one guest.”

I go back and forth on whether it’s even worth playing the satellites for these big buy-in international tournaments. By the time you pay travel expenses, currency exchange vig, etc., the tournaments aren’t generally such a hot investment. Not to mention the variance that comes with playing these things on my own money.

I’m usually able to convince myself that the satellites themselves are usually a uniquely good value. They tend to be some of the higher buy-in events offered on Stars, and I think my edge is particularly large in the satellite format because so many people tend to play so badly on the bubble.

At least, they usually do. The bubble in this one was actually quite tough. There were more than a few players left whom I knew to be strong, and even a lot of the names I didn’t recognize seemed to be playing at a pretty high level. Naturally there were a few weaker players, but all in all it was about the highest quality of play I’ve seen on a satellite bubble.

Well, at least I get a vacation in the Caribbean out of it ;-).

It’s a tournament, and blinds are 100/200. Hero raises to 475 UTG with KK, and good loose aggressive regular calls out of the SB. The flop comes Qd 4s 9d. SB checks, Hero bets 625, Villain calls.

The turn is the 4d, pairing the board and putting three diamonds out.  Both players check. (I don’t think it matters much, because the turn decision isn’t the important thing here, but Hero has the Kd.)

The river is the 4h, giving Hero Kings full of Fours. Villain checks, Hero bets 1400 into a 2300 pot, and Villain shoves for 11080. Hero has him covered.

Most of the forum seemed to think this was a call, and in many cases not a particularly close one. To me, it’s a clear fold.

Not everyone articulated it this way, but the general sense seemed to be that a pair of K’s is at the top of Hero’s range, and that folding hands at the top of your range isn’t what you do against a LAG.

The problem here is that Hero actually has two very separate ranges: a bluff range and a value range. KK is actually only around the middle of Hero’s value range, which I would set at roughly TT+. Unless Villain is floating the flop from out of position, a possibility made even less likely since Hero can account for two of the K’s, meaning he won’t see stuff like AK/KJ/KT very often, Villain probably has showdown value. He called a bet on the flop, and the most obvious draw came in on the river.

This means that Villain will primarily combat Hero’s bluff range by calling rather than by check-raise bluffing. When Villain check-raises, it no longer matters much where KK fits in Hero’s full range, because Villain isn’t really playing against the bluff portion of that range any longer. Villain’s shove is rarely a bluff, so it matters only where KK fits relative to Hero’s value range, and more importantly relative to Villain’s value range.

If you’re thinking that this is just a very fancy way of saying that Hero has a bluff catcher in a spot where Villain is rarely bluffing, you’re correct. The thing is that many people tend to use this flawed “top of my range” or “hand under-represented” logic (which are really the same argument, in my opinion) to justify some calls that I would say are clearly bad. Yeah, your hand can be a bluff quite often, but Villain can usually combat that by calling. When he shoves, KK is in trouble.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $200+$15 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (9 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t9600)
Button (t10700)
Hero (SB) (t9850)
BB (t10000)
UTG (t10000)
UTG+1 (t10000)
MP1 (t10000)
MP2 (t9850)
MP3 (t10000)

Hero’s M: 131.33

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 7
4 folds, MP3 bets t150, CO calls t150, 1 fold, Hero calls t125, 1 fold

Flop: (t500) K, 5, 4 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO bets t300, Hero raises to t1200, 1 fold, CO calls t900

Turn: (t2900) A (2 players)
Hero bets t1500, CO calls t1500

River: (t5900) Q (2 players)
Hero bets t7000 (All-In), CO calls t6750 (All-In)

Total pot: t19400

Results:
Hero had 8, 7 (high card, Ace).
CO had 10, A (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: CO won t19400

This one is against xthesteinx. As far as I know, he’s a successful tournament player but nothing more. As such, he’s going to prefer to open shove virtually his entire range with this stack size. The fact that he chooses not to do so here was a little suspicious, but I was willing to get it in with him with AQ. When he flat calls the 3-bet, though, I think I can probably even exclude KK from his range. In all honesty, I believe check-folding the turn would have been correct.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $500+$30 Tournament, 40/80 Blinds (9 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t3231)
Hero (BB) (t5750)
UTG (t986)
UTG+1 (t1917)
MP1 (t3810)
MP2 (t3216)
MP3 (t3687)
CO (t2755)
Button (t1214)

Hero’s M: 47.92

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, A
6 folds, Button bets t160, SB calls t120, Hero raises to t444, Button calls t284, 1 fold

Flop: (t1048) 3, 9, 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: (t1048) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t770 (All-In), Hero calls t770

River: (t2588) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t2588

Results:
Button had A, A (one pair, Aces).
Hero had Q, A (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: Button won t2588

My first reaction was that, this close call notwithstanding, this was a pretty good spot for Bloch. Granted everything I’ve heard about Ivey is that he’s both incredibly good at poker and insanely intimidating in person, but is he really 24 times more likely than the average player to take it down? The one thing I don’t know, which would make a big difference, is what his chip stack was like at the time. I guess if he was already at like three times the average when he took the bet, it might not be so unreasonable to think he’d close out eight times as often as anyone else sitting on a stack that big.

Even against bad players in a great structure, that’s an awfully huge edge. Then again, if Ivey does make it to the final four with a decent stack, I imagine he takes it down a large percentage of the time.

What do you think? Was Ivey getting the best of Bloch when he took 99:1?