Ed Miller

Timestamps

0:30 hello
24:19 strategy

Links

Bundyville
Stone Mattress
Underworld

Strategy

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/28666025_17A2638EF1

HH below for those who can’t open Boomplayer.

PokerStars Hand #190740522966: Tournament #2378947329, $500+$500+$50 USD Hold’em No Limit – Level VIII (500/1000) – 2018/09/06 15:38:54 ET
Table ‘2378947329 32’ 8-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: MrSweets28 (151471 in chips, $1000 bounty)
Seat 2: twirlpro (103945 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 3: ThePateychuk (33893 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 4: flavioreis88 (32690 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 5: dlanger610 (21467 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 6: foucault82 (106373 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 7: gremistaAK (61218 in chips, $500 bounty)
Seat 8: abarone68 (40999 in chips, $750 bounty)
MrSweets28: posts the ante 125
twirlpro: posts the ante 125
ThePateychuk: posts the ante 125
flavioreis88: posts the ante 125
dlanger610: posts the ante 125
foucault82: posts the ante 125
gremistaAK: posts the ante 125
abarone68: posts the ante 125
flavioreis88: posts small blind 500
dlanger610: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to foucault82 [Ah Kh]
foucault82: raises 1222 to 2222
gremistaAK: raises 4778 to 7000
abarone68: folds
MrSweets28: raises 9500 to 16500
twirlpro: folds
ThePateychuk: folds
flavioreis88: folds
dlanger610: folds
foucault82: calls 14278
gremistaAK: calls 9500
*** FLOP *** [6c 5c 3s]
foucault82: checks
gremistaAK: checks
MrSweets28: bets 12500
foucault82: calls 12500
gremistaAK: folds
*** TURN *** [6c 5c 3s] [2d]
foucault82: checks
MrSweets28: checks
*** RIVER *** [6c 5c 3s 2d] [6h]
foucault82: bets 77248 and is all-in
MrSweets28: folds
Uncalled bet (77248) returned to foucault82
foucault82 collected 77000 from pot
foucault82: doesn’t show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 77000 | Rake 0
Board [6c 5c 3s 2d 6h]
Seat 1: MrSweets28 folded on the River
Seat 2: twirlpro folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 3: ThePateychuk (button) folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 4: flavioreis88 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: dlanger610 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: foucault82 collected (77000)
Seat 7: gremistaAK folded on the Flop
Seat 8: abarone68 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)

Timestamps

0:30 hello
23:50 strat
45:32 interview

Strategy

Our strategy discussion is a follow-up to Nate’s analysis of Phil Ivey’s bustout hand from the 2018 WSOP Main Event on Episode 264.

Timestamps

0:30 hello
10:56 strat

Strategy Hand 1

On the bubble, CO (16K) opens to 5k. Hero calls T9dd in the BB.
Flop (13K) AQJd. Hero checks, Villain bets 5k, Hero calls.
Turn (23K) 6. Both check.
River (23) 3. Hero shoves for 6K, Villain folds.

Strategy Hand 2

Blinds 5K/10K/1K. SB (500K) open limps, Hero (1.2M) raises to 30K with AdQh, SB calls
Flop (68K) 542cc. SB checks, Hero bets 20K, Villain raises to 75K, Hero calls.
Turn Qs. SB bets 135K, Hero shoves 270K more, SB calls A3.

0:30 Hello & Welcome
54:53 Strategy

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
8:08 – strategy

Strategy Hand 1

Effective stack: 22K

Blinds: 300/600, 100 ante

I was under the gun with pocket tens and raised to 1500. I was called by a guy who looked to be in his mid twenties, an middle aged guy on the button, and an older gentleman directly to my right in the big blind.

Pre-flop Pot: 7300

Flop comes Kd/8h/10h. The bb checks to me and I bet 2500. The two callers fold and the bb calls.

Flop Pot: 12,300

The turn was a 2 of clubs. BB checks, I bet 4500. He calls.

Turn Pot: 21,300

The river was a 9 of diamonds. He thought for about 20 seconds and then bet 5K.

Strategy Hand 2

$2/$5 NL. I open raise in mp to $20 with JdJh. One caller on button.

Flop JcQh2s

I bet $35, he calls.

$111 in pot, turn comes 9c. I bet $65, he raises to $200 total, I call.

$511 in the pot, river is a 5d.

I check. He bets $200.

My new Fundamentals of Game Theory course is a series of lessons to introduce you, step by step, to fundamental game theory concepts and help you apply them to real world poker situations. This course is not about trying to memorize and implement solver solutions in your actual play; it’s about studying solutions in order to learn the core principles of optimal play, so that you can recognize and exploit opponents who play sub-optimally.

There’s no predefined starting point. I’ve created a series of scaffolded lessons that start from zero and build up to analyzing a full solver solution for a common flop situation. Where we start in that progression will depend on how comfortable you already are game theoretical concepts.

Every session is built around a toy game or scenario that you’ll attempt to analyze and interpret for yourself and then discuss with me over Skype. All lessons can be completed with any GTO solver, though I’m best prepared to help you with either CREV or Pio. The first few lessons can even be completed with the free version of PioSolver.

For questions, more information, or to sign up, please comment here or write andrew (at) thinkingpoker (dot) net.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
3:47 Strategy
21:46 Helen Ellis

Strategy

1/2 NL

Villain straddles, I raise AdQd to $16 from MP and get 2 callers, Villain raises to $40.

I look at his stack and see what looks like $60ish in red with a $100 bill. I call, other two fold.

Flop AsKc6s (pot $112)

Checks to me and I bet $70. He raises all in and I learn he has two hundred dollar bills and it’s $140 more to me…

Timestamps

0:30 Hello
4:07 Strategy
29:45 Dick pt iii

Strategy

2/5 NL. My Stack is about 770 and all players involve cover. Two limps and I raise to 25$ in HJ with Ks2s. Button 3 Bets to 70$, both limpers call, and I call.

Pot is 287 -rake Flop Comes: AcKc2h

Checks to Button who bets 125, both original callers fold, Hero raises to 300, Button calls.

Turn: Ad

Both check.

River: Qd

I check, He shoves 400.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello
8:24 strat
34:35 – dick pt 1

Strategy

Winning Poker Network Game #1128438874: No Limit Holdem ($0.05/$0.10) [2018/02/20 01:29:56 UTC]

Table: (PRR) Dilong – 4
Seats: 9
Seat 2: kingsilence ($17.70)
Seat 3: eko4gg ($4)
Seat 4: BigGigantic ($17.83)
Seat 6: golfboyseven ($19.02)
Seat 7: SecretSquirrel ($12.21)
Seat 8: riffjax ($17.30)
Seat 9: gazayute ($12.74)
Button is seat 6
SecretSquirrel: posts small blind $0.05
riffjax: posts big blind $0.10

*** HOLE CARDS ***
riffjax: dealt [Ah Kc]
gazayute: folds
kingsilence: folds
eko4gg: folds
BigGigantic: folds
golfboyseven: folds
SecretSquirrel: raises $0.15
riffjax: raises $0.50
SecretSquirrel: calls $0.40

*** FLOP *** [3d 4c 5h]
SecretSquirrel: checks
riffjax: bets $0.57
SecretSquirrel: raises $1.14
riffjax: calls $0.57

*** TURN *** [3d 4c 5h] [As]
SecretSquirrel: checks
riffjax: bets $1.65
SecretSquirrel: calls $1.65

*** RIVER *** [3d 4c 5h] [As] [9c]
SecretSquirrel: raises all-in $8.82
riffjax ??

Many poker players are introduced to game theoretical concepts like balance and indifference in the form of a simple example in which one player holds a bluff-catcher and faces a bet from a polarized range. These players tend to understand that there is some sort of theoretically optimal ratio of bluffs to value bets for the betting player, even if they don’t fully appreciate what it is, where it comes from, or why it matters. Likewise, they understand that there exists some optimal calling frequency for the bluff-catching player, though they may not know exactly how to calculate it.

Though not technically wrong, this simple example misrepresents the complexity of the real life situations that arise much more frequently. In fact, most ranges aren’t perfectly polarized, at least not at equilibrium. That is, in the majority of real no-limit hold ‘em situations, there are good game theoretical reasons to bet a variety of types of hands, many of which will not slot into neat categories of “bluff” and “value bet”.

It is in these more complex situations where understanding the game theory behind poker is most valuable. So, while it’s a good starting point to learn the game theory of a simple situation such as the one above, it’s not hard to see why players who understand only this situation fail to see the utility of game theoretical approaches. This article will consider, in broad strokes, the game theory underlying more complex bluffing and bluff-catching scenarios. While it is admittedly not practical (and often not desirable) to memorize and implement perfectly balanced mixed strategies, understanding the basic theory behind these strategies is quite useful for crafting exploitive strategies.

Part One is now live, and the rest should be going up over the course of the next week or so.

If you’re not yet a Tournament Poker Edge member, let this be your impetus to sign up!

Timestamps

0:30 hello
9:35 strat
51:43 extra strat

Strategy

Hand 1 – 3/5 NL

Couple of limps, CO raises to $25, BN calls, Hero calls Ah 6h in the SB, one MP limper calls.

Ac 2h Ks. Checks to CO who bets $55, BN folds, Hero calls, MP calls.

8h ($280 in pot). Checks to CO, CO bets $125, Hero calls, MP calls.

8d ($655 in pot). Checks to CO who bets $285. Hero?

Hand 2 – Tournament, effective stacks 35bb

CO opens 2.5bb, Hero calls 9d 8d in the SB.

9s 5h 4d (8.5b in pot). Checks to CO, who bets 9bb. Hero calls.

5s (26.5bb in pot). Both check.

Js (26.5bb in pot). Check, CO shoves, Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
34:19 – strat

Strategy

Hand 1

Hand 2

Hero opens to $35 with 8d 7d UTG, called by MP and BB.

Flop ($105) AQ6dd. BB checks, Hero bets $50, BB calls.

Turn ($205) 2c. BB checks, Hero bets $200, B calls.

River ($605) 9h. BB checks, Hero shoves ~$900.

Strategy

Hand 1

100 BB effective stacks 

Dealt to Hero: Ks Ts

UTG folds, Hero (MP) raises to 3BB, Villain (CO) calls, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds.

Flop: Qh 6s 4s (7.5BB)

Hero bets 5BB, Villain calls.

Turn: Td (17.5BB)

Hero checks, Villain bets 13BB, Hero calls.

River: Qs (43.5 BB)

Hero… checks?, Villain bets 27BB, Hero…? 

Hand 2

I have JdJc UTG+1. 

Folds to me and I raise to 15.Folds to main villain in CO who flats, SB folds, BB flats.

Flop ($50) 9c 7d 4s: SB checks, I bet $35, CO thinks not too long before calling, SB calls $35.

Turn ($155) 8h: BB checks, I check, CO seems like he’s about to check then grabs a stack of reds, counts $85 and pushes it forward. BB folds. I call.

River ($325) 3d: I check, CO bets $175.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
15:32 Strategy
41:00 Jordan Young

Links

Softcenter.band
Solve for Why Academy
Bay Area Urban Debate League Fundraising Campaign

The great thing about this kind of review is that the hand examples come from the smaller stakes tournaments that most members play, which provides plenty of opportunity to talk about what does and doesn’t work against those kinds of opponents.

If you’re not already a member, this is a great time to sign up and get access to this plus dozens of my other videos and hundreds more from other instructors!

Oh and do check out the KL Cleeton interview if you haven’t already, it’s one of my favorites from this year!t

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello and Welcome
4:12 – Andrew Thierrault
72:00 – Strategy

Strategy

$150 NLH WSOP Circuit event at the Bike, Dec 2015.

Near the end of level 8 (300/600 + 75 ante), I was UTG 8-handed with about a starting stack (10.7k) I raise to 1500 with Jd Jc. Folds around to BB, who calls.

With 3.9k in the pot, flop comes Kh 8d 4h. Villain checks, I check.

Still with 3.9k in the pot, turn is another 4, and Villain checks again. I bet 2k, Villain raises to 5k, I call.

With 13.9k in the pot, river is a third 4, and Villain checks once more. Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
3:49 – strat
33:19 – peter

Strategy

Hero ($280) has AsQh UTG, opens to $10. 3 callers, including Villain on the button.

Flop comes Ad4c2c. Pot is $35 after rake. Checks to Villain who bets $25, Hero calls, rest fold.

Turn is Kc. Pot is $85. Hero checks to Villain who bets $50. Hero calls.

River is 9s. Pot is $185. Hero checks to Villain who jams which would put Hero all-in for remaining $195.

The only WCOOP event I played was the $500 6-max. Not much to report, but here’s a fun little spot where I bet think most people just never bluff (note that I block 76ss):

PokerStars – 300/600 Ante 75 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BB): 140.41 BB
UTG: 85.44 BB (VPIP: 27.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 100)
MP: 71.6 BB (VPIP: 33.22, PFR: 23.25, 3Bet Preflop: 7.87, Hands: 286)
CO: 43.07 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 14.66, 3Bet Preflop: 9.43, Hands: 235)
BTN: 59.06 BB (VPIP: 28.09, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.21, Hands: 569)
SB: 74.94 BB (VPIP: 20.46, PFR: 13.99, 3Bet Preflop: 6.71, Hands: 394)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has 9s 7s
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.11 BB, SB calls 1.61 BB, Hero calls 1.11 BB

Flop : (7.09 BB, 3 players) 6c 6h 6d
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 3.07 BB, SB calls 3.07 BB, Hero raises to 7.97 BB, fold, fold

Hero wins 16.32 BB

I ended up busting on a much larger bluff. Not to say this is necessarily good, but I don’t think the results really speak to it being bad, as this is surely near the top of Villain’s range and not a hand I need him to fold in order for the bluff to be profitable:

PokerStars – 800/1600 Ante 200 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BB): 52.33 BB
UTG: 74.37 BB (VPIP: 33.14, PFR: 21.30, 3Bet Preflop: 8.43, Hands: 170)
MP: 77.28 BB (VPIP: 35.69, PFR: 25.22, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 356)
CO: 61.25 BB (VPIP: 35.10, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 5.62, Hands: 209)
BTN: 35.57 BB (VPIP: 27.16, PFR: 18.67, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 82)
SB: 33.4 BB (VPIP: 22.56, PFR: 14.69, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 464)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has 3s 2s
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.2 BB, SB calls 1.7 BB, Hero calls 1.2 BB

Flop : (7.35 BB, 3 players) Kh 5h 5d
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn : (7.35 BB, 3 players) 4s
SB checks, Hero bets 7.35 BB, BTN calls 7.35 BB, fold

River : (22.05 BB, 2 players) 8d
Hero bets 42.65 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 25.89 BB and is all-in

Hero shows 3s 2s (One Pair, Fives)
(Pre 41%, Flop 2%, Turn 9%)

BTN shows 5c 6h (Three of a Kind, Fives)
(Pre 59%, Flop 98%, Turn 91%)

BTN wins 73.83 BB

To learn more from Christian you can follow @ChristianSoto08 on Twitter and sign up for his I’ll Name This Strategy Later II seminar.

Saturday started early. Usually I deal with that by late registering, but the 7AM event was a progressive knock-out, and although Stars allows late registration in those, it’s a financial disaster to do so. So I figured I would play that and then see how I felt for the afternoon event.

It got off to a rough start. A guy put in a crazy amount with 22 against my AK, which wasn’t the end of the world since I covered him, but his pair held up so instead of getting his bounty I got short-stacked. I managed to make a recovery though (it’s easy to get your money in good as a short stack in a bounty event, because everyone else has incentive to call you very light) and after this extremely fun hand I had more chips than anyone else in the tournament (also on Boom if you’d rather watch the replay):

PokerStars – 1250/2500 Ante 325 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+2: 69.55 BB (VPIP: 19.40, PFR: 10.61, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, Hands: 67)
CO: 88.92 BB (VPIP: 13.75, PFR: 7.50, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, Hands: 81)
BTN: 17.37 BB (VPIP: 17.69, PFR: 4.65, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 131)
SB: 22.61 BB (VPIP: 26.74, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 16.28, Hands: 87)
Hero (BB): 166.42 BB
UTG: 85.05 BB (VPIP: 19.64, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 57)
UTG+1: 54.64 BB (VPIP: 17.95, PFR: 10.26, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 39)
MP: 51.98 BB (VPIP: 31.34, PFR: 19.08, 3Bet Preflop: 9.23, Hands: 136)
MP+1: 129.68 BB (VPIP: 17.61, PFR: 13.81, 3Bet Preflop: 10.48, Hands: 517)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.67 BB) Hero has 7c 9d
fold, fold, MP raises to 2.3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.3 BB

Flop : (6.27 BB, 2 players) Ts 9c Th
Hero checks, MP bets 2.32 BB, Hero raises to 5.59 BB, MP calls 3.27 BB

Turn : (17.46 BB, 2 players) 8h
Hero checks, MP bets 6.36 BB, Hero raises to 15.41 BB, MP calls 9.05 BB

River : (48.28 BB, 2 players) 4s
Hero checks, MP bets 28.55 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 28.55 BB

MP shows Js Kc (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 65%, Flop 38%, Turn 23%)

Hero shows 7c 9d (Two Pair, Tens and Nines)
(Pre 35%, Flop 62%, Turn 77%)

Hero wins 105.38 BB

I’m not too pleased with the hand I busted on. I do think I should have gone broke given how the board ran out, but it would have been better to call the flop and get all in on this turn.

PokerStars – 6000/12000 Ante 1500 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 6.98 BB (VPIP: 22.16, PFR: 13.23, 3Bet Preflop: 9.18, Hands: 194)
Hero (BTN): 31.1 BB
SB: 75.19 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BB: 135.17 BB (VPIP: 18.84, PFR: 13.43, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 73)
UTG: 165.89 BB (VPIP: 31.67, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 242)
UTG+1: 44.35 BB (VPIP: 19.67, PFR: 14.66, 3Bet Preflop: 10.24, Hands: 606)
MP: 25.96 BB (VPIP: 16.70, PFR: 11.94, 3Bet Preflop: 5.09, Hands: 504)
MP+1: 35.16 BB (VPIP: 21.00, PFR: 16.26, 3Bet Preflop: 10.31, Hands: 501)
MP+2: 37.86 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 9)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Ac Js
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.4 BB, fold, BB calls 1.4 BB

Flop : (8.82 BB, 3 players) Tc Jc 9d
BB checks, MP+1 checks, Hero bets 2.65 BB, BB raises to 6.58 BB, fold, Hero raises to 28.58 BB and is all-in, BB calls 21.99 BB

Turn : (65.98 BB, 2 players) 2d

River : (65.98 BB, 2 players) 2c

BB shows 9c Qc (Flush, Queen High)
(Pre 40%, Flop 62%, Turn 43%)

Hero shows Ac Js (Two Pair, Jacks and Twos)
(Pre 60%, Flop 38%, Turn 57%)

BB wins 65.98 BB

I didn’t do anything too interesting in the $215 rebuy, but here’s a hand I screwed up:

PokerStars – 300/600 Ante 75 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 83.23 BB (VPIP: 33.46, PFR: 20.31, 3Bet Preflop: 6.56, Hands: 267)
CO: 51.64 BB (VPIP: 22.86, PFR: 22.86, 3Bet Preflop: 17.65, Hands: 35)
BTN: 49.94 BB (VPIP: 15.11, PFR: 8.73, 3Bet Preflop: 1.79, Hands: 140)
SB: 79.96 BB (VPIP: 20.26, PFR: 14.66, 3Bet Preflop: 6.86, Hands: 545)
Hero (BB): 96.56 BB
UTG: 37.1 BB (VPIP: 20.21, PFR: 12.43, 3Bet Preflop: 5.75, Hands: 189)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has 7s 8h
fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero raises to 3.7 BB, SB raises to 13 BB, Hero calls 9.3 BB

Flop : (26.75 BB, 2 players) 9d 4d Td
SB bets 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB

Turn : (50.75 BB, 2 players) 6d
SB checks, Hero checks

River : (50.75 BB, 2 players) 7c
SB bets 15.73 BB, Hero calls 15.73 BB

SB shows Jc Jd (Flush, Jack High)
(Pre 82%, Flop 85%, Turn 100%)

Hero mucks 7s 8h (Straight, Ten High)
(Pre 18%, Flop 15%, Turn 0%)

SB wins 82.22 BB

I think I played the turn right, and maybe the flop? But pre-flop, I probably screwed up twice, and the river should probably be a fold. #TheyAlwaysHaveIt

PokerStars – 100/200 Ante 25 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 223.49 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 15)
BTN: 256.49 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
SB: 250.62 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
Hero (BB): 251.25 BB
UTG: 247.62 BB (VPIP: 14.15, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 205)

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.12 BB) Hero has 4c 4h
UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop : (8.62 BB, 3 players) Kc 4d 5d
Hero checks, UTG bets 4.14 BB, BTN calls 4.14 BB, Hero raises to 25.18 BB, fold, BTN calls 21.04 BB

Turn : (63.13 BB, 2 players) Kd
Hero bets 18.94 BB, BTN raises to 57 BB, Hero calls 38.06 BB

River : (177.13 BB, 2 players) Qs
Hero checks, BTN bets 171.68 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 166.44 BB and is all-in

BTN shows 5s 5h (Full House, Fives full of Kings)
(Pre 81%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)

Hero shows 4c 4h (Full House, Fours full of Kings)
(Pre 19%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)

BTN wins 510.01 BB

Honestly, I’m not at all sure this was a good river call. I do think it’s just a bluff-catcher, and although the 4s are somewhat relevant blockers, this is probably a spot where most people underbluff enough and my remaining chips valuable enough for me to fold.

It all worked out in the end though, because I took a few hours off (I hadn’t registered anything else yet) and then put in an afternoon session instead, which culminated in my taking 3rd out of nearly 1000 runners in the Big $109. That will almost certainly become a video on Tournament Poker Edge so I don’t want to give away too much, but here are two fun hands from the last two tables:

PokerStars – 2500/5000 Ante 625 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 17.34 BB (VPIP: 21.60, PFR: 15.87, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 705)
BB: 69.56 BB (VPIP: 26.88, PFR: 20.24, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 93)
UTG: 49.33 BB (VPIP: 45.45, PFR: 36.36, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 11)
UTG+1: 23.91 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 13)
Hero (MP): 18.75 BB
MP+1: 33.19 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, Hands: 56)
MP+2: 8.21 BB (VPIP: 22.35, PFR: 14.32, 3Bet Preflop: 8.12, Hands: 427)
CO: 76.27 BB (VPIP: 15.45, PFR: 9.62, 3Bet Preflop: 5.13, Hands: 110)
BTN: 31 BB (VPIP: 21.48, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 12.28, Hands: 257)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Qs Kh
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (6.18 BB, 2 players) 7s 2h 5s
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (6.18 BB, 2 players) 2c
BB checks, Hero checks

River : (6.18 BB, 2 players) 6h
BB bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

BB shows 4s Ks (One Pair, Twos)
(Pre 29%, Flop 46%, Turn 32%)

Hero shows Qs Kh (One Pair, Twos)
(Pre 71%, Flop 54%, Turn 68%)

Hero wins 14.18 BB

Villain was active in the chat box, which made it even more fun.

This was with 11 players remaining. Villain timed down to 0 before folding. Was quite the sweat:

PokerStars – 6000/12000 Ante 1500 NL – Holdem – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 14.71 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 33)
UTG: 36.57 BB (VPIP: 20.49, PFR: 15.05, 3Bet Preflop: 8.39, Hands: 701)
CO: 65.94 BB (VPIP: 18.41, PFR: 15.04, 3Bet Preflop: 9.80, Hands: 357)
BTN: 50.35 BB (VPIP: 22.90, PFR: 16.75, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 434)
Hero (SB): 34.54 BB

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.12 BB) Hero has 8c Kc
fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.1 BB, Hero raises to 6.48 BB, fold, BTN calls 4.38 BB

Flop : (14.59 BB, 2 players) 7s Ts 5d
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn : (14.59 BB, 2 players) 6c
Hero checks, BTN bets 7 BB, Hero raises to 27.94 BB and is all-in, fold

Hero wins 28.59 BB

PS Nothing to write home about in the $1050 PKO. Collected one bounty.

Wednesday did not get off to a great start in the $500. Pretty early on, I lost this gem:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 142.61 BB (VPIP: 24.49, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 49)
MP+2: 130.55 BB (VPIP: 27.19, PFR: 15.18, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 114)
CO: 126.32 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 19.73, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 154)
BTN: 130.29 BB (VPIP: 19.65, PFR: 13.86, 3Bet Preflop: 4.79, Hands: 343)
SB: 97.6 BB (VPIP: 22.38, PFR: 16.79, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 143)
BB: 116.88 BB (VPIP: 17.28, PFR: 12.45, 3Bet Preflop: 6.87, Hands: 273)
UTG: 127.12 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 16.19, 3Bet Preflop: 8.20, Hands: 184)
UTG+1: 172.18 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (MP): 77.76 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9c Tc
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (8.46 BB, 3 players) 8c Qs Jh
BB checks, Hero checks, MP+2 bets 4.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 4.5 BB

Turn : (17.46 BB, 2 players) 5c
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 8.73 BB, Hero raises to 22.22 BB, MP+2 calls 13.49 BB

River : (61.9 BB, 2 players) 2c
Hero bets 48.63 BB and is all-in, MP+2 calls 48.63 BB

Hero shows 9c Tc (Flush, Ten High)
(Pre 34%, Flop 92%, Turn 84%)

MP+2 shows Kc Jc (Flush, King High)
(Pre 66%, Flop 8%, Turn 16%)

MP+2 wins 159.17 BB

The Zoom 6-Max was going better, for a while. It’s a fun format, over as quickly as a turbo but the Zoom structure means you get more hands per level than you would in a turbo (though it still isn’t as deep as a normal WCOOP). I actually gave some thought to folding this river, as I really couldn’t figure out what he would 3-bet-call from the SB that I could beat. Finally I decided it could be a strangely played AK, and thankfully it was!

PokerStars – 400/800 Ante 100 NL FAST (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 58.23 BB (VPIP: 25.76, PFR: 16.92, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 68)
SB: 70.2 BB (VPIP: 25.33, PFR: 18.31, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 75)
Hero (BB): 105.34 BB
UTG: 47.54 BB (VPIP: 19.46, PFR: 17.19, 3Bet Preflop: 10.11, Hands: 2,416)
MP: 64.6 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 133)
CO: 77.86 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has Jc Jd
fold, fold, CO raises to 2.2 BB, BTN calls 2.2 BB, SB raises to 7 BB, Hero raises to 20.83 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 13.83 BB

Flop : (46.81 BB, 2 players) Td 2s 4c
SB checks, Hero bets 11.11 BB, SB calls 11.11 BB

Turn : (69.03 BB, 2 players) Tc
SB checks, Hero checks

River : (69.03 BB, 2 players) 8h
SB bets 38.13 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 38.13 BB

SB shows Kh Ac (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 43%, Flop 26%, Turn 14%)

Hero shows Jc Jd (Two Pair, Jacks and Tens)
(Pre 57%, Flop 74%, Turn 86%)

Hero wins 145.29 BB

Karma caught up to me though, as I eventually got in JJ vs AK pre-flop and lost.

Here’s an interesting one from the $215. I don’t love check-raising bottom two when this deep on a board like this one, because although you benefit a bit from protection you aren’t generally going to end up with a hand that you want to play for four bets. Case in point: by the time we see the river, I’m at the bottom of my range and ready to turn my hand into a bluff, mostly to get Villain off of a Q though perhaps also AA or AJ.

PokerStars – 150/300 Ante 40 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 168.05 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 32)
MP+1: 148.96 BB (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 27)
MP+2: 171.63 BB (VPIP: 21.18, PFR: 13.58, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 86)
CO: 175.34 BB (VPIP: 21.15, PFR: 14.49, 3Bet Preflop: 4.59, Hands: 491)
BTN: 157.53 BB (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 2.78, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
SB: 140.37 BB (VPIP: 45.85, PFR: 34.51, 3Bet Preflop: 11.24, Hands: 233)
Hero (BB): 114.67 BB
UTG: 201.03 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 14)
UTG+1: 170.1 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has 8s Jh
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop : (6.7 BB, 2 players) Jd Kd 8h
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

Turn : (12.7 BB, 2 players) Kh
Hero checks, MP+2 checks

River : (12.7 BB, 2 players) Qd
Hero bets 8.38 BB, fold

Hero wins 12.7 BB

This was a gross one from the $530:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 107.42 BB (VPIP: 19.17, PFR: 14.39, 3Bet Preflop: 7.03, Hands: 433)
MP: 92.68 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
MP+1: 171.23 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 48)
MP+2: 86.44 BB (VPIP: 18.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 50)
Hero (CO): 193.65 BB
BTN: 119.7 BB (VPIP: 21.59, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 7.45, Hands: 227)
SB: 119.16 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BB: 121.14 BB (VPIP: 26.85, PFR: 20.56, 3Bet Preflop: 6.10, Hands: 217)
UTG: 163.31 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Jh Js
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2.19 BB, Hero raises to 6.45 BB, BTN raises to 15 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 8.55 BB

Flop : (34.81 BB, 2 players) 4s 9d 8d
Hero checks, BTN bets 10.7 BB, Hero calls 10.7 BB

Turn : (56.21 BB, 2 players) Kd
Hero checks, BTN checks

River : (56.21 BB, 2 players) Jc
Hero bets 167.83 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 93.88 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Jh Js (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 68%, Flop 53%, Turn 0%)

BTN shows Td Ad (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 32%, Flop 47%, Turn 100%)

BTN wins 243.97 BB

I can’t fault Villain’s play, it’s just a great spot for him to pressure me pre-flop. It’s possible I’m just supposed to raise again pre-flop; I certainly considered it, but the money behind seemed awkward. I haven’t run in CREV yet but I feel good about the river shove. I doubt Villain will have enough flushes and KK to be able to fold a lot of his AK/AA.

And in a throwback to one of my earliest poker strategy articles, here I am bluffing a calling station:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 108.05 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 14.52, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 429)
SB: 116.52 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BB: 175.63 BB (VPIP: 22.73, PFR: 6.82, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 44)
UTG: 89.82 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 46)
Hero (UTG+1): 176.1 BB
MP: 115.08 BB (VPIP: 21.97, PFR: 13.89, 3Bet Preflop: 7.61, Hands: 223)
MP+1: 122.04 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP+2: 121.76 BB (VPIP: 27.36, PFR: 20.95, 3Bet Preflop: 6.17, Hands: 213)
CO: 149.74 BB (VPIP: 29.55, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9c Tc
fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 1.78 BB, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (7.96 BB, 3 players) 8s 2s Jd
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 5.26 BB, SB calls 5.26 BB, fold

Turn : (18.48 BB, 2 players) 6s
SB checks, Hero bets 9.24 BB, SB calls 9.24 BB

River : (36.96 BB, 2 players) 4s
SB checks, Hero bets 18.48 BB, fold

Hero wins 36.96 BB

Win the Button is a format I haven’t quite wrapped my head around yet. The most obvious adjustment is that you should try harder to win pots because there’s more of a reward for winning pots, but what’s less obvious is that you also care who win them from. That means the delta on defending your BB against the Button is much larger than defending against UTG, because if you fold to UTG you will be CO next hand, but if you fold to Button you will be BB again. I did some extra battling in late position for this reason, but here’s the hand I’m most proud of:

PokerStars – 175/350 Ante 45 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 145.3 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
BTN: 367.52 BB (VPIP: 62.50, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
SB: 127.53 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 46)
BB: 155.34 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 60.00, 3Bet Preflop: 66.67, Hands: 5)
UTG: 7.57 BB (VPIP: 23.76, PFR: 19.52, 3Bet Preflop: 6.27, Hands: 1,005)
UTG+1: 131.33 BB (VPIP: 26.90, PFR: 16.07, 3Bet Preflop: 8.97, Hands: 343)
MP: 169.78 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
Hero (MP+1): 75.54 BB

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.53 BB) Hero has Ad Qh
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.79 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.29 BB, BB calls 1.79 BB

Flop : (9.39 BB, 3 players) 4d As 6d
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 2.82 BB, SB calls 2.82 BB, fold

Turn : (15.03 BB, 2 players) Th
SB checks, Hero bets 15.03 BB, SB calls 15.03 BB

River : (45.09 BB, 2 players) Td
SB checks, Hero bets 54.77 BB and is all-in, SB calls 54.77 BB

Hero shows Ad Qh (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 74%, Flop 86%, Turn 93%)

SB shows Ah 9d (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 26%, Flop 14%, Turn 7%)

Hero wins 154.63 BB

Needless to say, Villain should fold pre, and this is kind of an example of why. His A9o may have reasonable equity against my opening range, but it doesn’t realize that equity well, especially not against a player capable of recognizing spots like this.

There was also this value bet with Ace-Queen high on the river:

PokerStars – 1250/2500 Ante 325 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 29.62 BB (VPIP: 24.42, PFR: 17.80, 3Bet Preflop: 6.59, Hands: 394)
BTN: 88.21 BB (VPIP: 24.02, PFR: 9.04, 3Bet Preflop: 1.35, Hands: 179)
SB: 37.35 BB (VPIP: 24.30, PFR: 15.26, 3Bet Preflop: 3.77, Hands: 252)
BB: 28.47 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 12.73, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 56)
UTG: 73.5 BB (VPIP: 27.12, PFR: 19.01, 3Bet Preflop: 6.62, Hands: 713)
UTG+1: 17.34 BB (VPIP: 14.62, PFR: 7.77, 3Bet Preflop: 1.03, Hands: 212)
MP: 81.56 BB (VPIP: 24.51, PFR: 14.97, 3Bet Preflop: 6.00, Hands: 358)
MP+1: 94.43 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 15.16, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 345)
Hero (MP+2): 42.84 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.67 BB) Hero has Qc Ad
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, CO calls 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop : (7.23 BB, 2 players) 3s 8c 7h
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn : (7.23 BB, 2 players) 6d
Hero checks, CO checks

River : (7.23 BB, 2 players) 8h
Hero bets 2.17 BB, CO calls 2.17 BB

Hero shows Qc Ad (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 69%, Flop 81%, Turn 93%)

CO mucks Ah Jh (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 31%, Flop 19%, Turn 7%)

Hero wins 11.57 BB

The hand I busted on felt bad, and in fact while CREV likes my flop check (it plays a mix but mostly checks ATdd), it has almost no raising range on the turn. Which makes sense: this isn’t a flop on which I should often check strong hands, so on blank turns I’ll generally be quite capped and should therefore play the role of the bluff-catcher. Of course that would enable me to fold on a river like this one:

PokerStars – 2500/5000 Ante 625 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 33.71 BB (VPIP: 18.78, PFR: 13.74, 3Bet Preflop: 4.70, Hands: 773)
CO: 42.19 BB (VPIP: 19.51, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 41)
Hero (BTN): 21.18 BB
SB: 44.05 BB (VPIP: 23.38, PFR: 17.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 77)
BB: 55.1 BB (VPIP: 18.99, PFR: 14.11, 3Bet Preflop: 7.33, Hands: 339)
UTG: 24.1 BB (VPIP: 30.93, PFR: 7.45, 3Bet Preflop: 6.38, Hands: 97)
UTG+1: 24.17 BB (VPIP: 14.58, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 48)
MP: 58.91 BB (VPIP: 20.45, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has Ad Td
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (6.06 BB, 2 players) Th 3d Qh
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (6.06 BB, 2 players) 4c
BB bets 3.24 BB, Hero raises to 18.77 BB and is all-in, BB calls 15.53 BB

River : (43.61 BB, 2 players) Jh

BB shows 7c Qc (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 37%, Flop 74%, Turn 89%)

Hero shows Ad Td (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 63%, Flop 26%, Turn 11%)

BB wins 43.61 BB

Nothing so interesting to report from the $215; I didn’t win it.

My plan was not to double buy (that is, to rebuy 10K chips for $215 rather than 20K chips for $430), because the add-on buys 20K chips for $215, which means that buying that extra 10K during the rebuy period is quite expensive. Your initial chips are expensive too, of course, but you can’t add on if you don’t have chips!

Eventually, though, I convinced myself that the players on my right had enough chips and were playing badly enough that I wanted to have more to invest against them. I’m not sure that was the right decision, but it paid off:

PokerStars – 125/250 Ante 30 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 91.93 BB (VPIP: 18.84, PFR: 11.94, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 69)
Hero (BTN): 80.09 BB
SB: 157.66 BB (VPIP: 18.92, PFR: 15.09, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 113)
BB: 177.09 BB (VPIP: 47.00, PFR: 27.00, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 100)
UTG: 40.52 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 22)
UTG+1: 43.26 BB (VPIP: 22.97, PFR: 10.64, 3Bet Preflop: 5.03, Hands: 359)
MP: 36.4 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 7.04, 3Bet Preflop: 5.41, Hands: 144)
MP+1: 79.88 BB (VPIP: 19.11, PFR: 12.20, 3Bet Preflop: 6.86, Hands: 246)
MP+2: 104.4 BB (VPIP: 38.16, PFR: 18.42, 3Bet Preflop: 9.38, Hands: 76)

9 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.58 BB) Hero has 3s 3h
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2.5 BB, MP+2 calls 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold

Flop : (10.08 BB, 3 players) 5h Qs 3c
MP+1 bets 5 BB, MP+2 calls 5 BB, Hero raises to 21.55 BB, fold, MP+2 raises to 101.78 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 55.92 BB and is all-in

Turn : (170.02 BB, 2 players) Jd

River : (170.02 BB, 2 players) Qh

MP+2 shows Kd Qc (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 48%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)

Hero shows 3s 3h (Full House, Threes full of Queens)
(Pre 52%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)

Hero wins 170.02 BB

I won more big pots with 66 vs 64 on 764dd (frankly that Villain overplayed his hand as well – I flatted his flop check-raise, and he overbet jammed a Qd turn!), and then a really big one getting QQ all in against AK and holding. After winning that huge flip – note this for when I start whining about losing flips – I was in second place overall. Eventually, though, I just blew up:

PokerStars – 1250/2500 Ante 325 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 43.44 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 65)
Hero (MP+2): 119.24 BB
CO: 10.53 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 5.65, Hands: 301)
BTN: 23.3 BB (VPIP: 20.27, PFR: 13.46, 3Bet Preflop: 8.72, Hands: 376)
SB: 43.79 BB (VPIP: 14.68, PFR: 9.67, 3Bet Preflop: 2.27, Hands: 542)
BB: 25.05 BB (VPIP: 17.35, PFR: 9.28, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 98)
UTG: 81.7 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 21)
UTG+1: 40.24 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.14, 3Bet Preflop: 5.22, Hands: 288)
MP: 31.2 BB (VPIP: 23.56, PFR: 17.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 452)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.67 BB) Hero has Ts 9d
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 1.78 BB, fold

Flop : (6.73 BB, 2 players) 9s 5h Ad
SB checks, Hero bets 2.02 BB, SB calls 2.02 BB

Turn : (10.77 BB, 2 players) 3d
SB bets 6.68 BB, Hero calls 6.68 BB

River : (24.12 BB, 2 players) 6h
SB bets 6.03 BB, Hero raises to 108.14 BB and is all-in, SB calls 26.66 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Ts 9d (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 43%, Flop 18%, Turn 5%)

SB shows 3s As (Two Pair, Aces and Threes)
(Pre 57%, Flop 82%, Turn 95%)

SB wins 89.5 BB

This isn’t even typically a hand I’d open from this seat, but the BB was quite tight. I just got it into my head from the flop that I was going to three barrels, which I think is a fine plan holding the 9 blocker, but I refused to re-evaluate after Villain took the lead on the turn.

Frankly, his bet is bad. All he has to do is check and call and he gets my stack when he’s going to get my stack. Donking on a card that really doesn’t change the board – even though it did improve his hand – throws up a red flat that ought to enable me to change course and fold, though I stubbornly ignored it. So that was frustrating.

After that it was pretty uneventful, with not too many opportunities presenting themselves and me slowly blinding down as we neared the bubble. I open jammed AK, got called by TT, and that was that.

I did manage a cash in the $530, though even that got a bit dicey. I got off to a bad start thanks to more stubbornness:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 160.07 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
UTG+1: 14.47 BB (VPIP: 25.31, PFR: 14.88, 3Bet Preflop: 4.02, Hands: 748)
MP: 259.15 BB (VPIP: 22.88, PFR: 15.52, 3Bet Preflop: 3.17, Hands: 119)
Hero (MP+1): 129.48 BB
MP+2: 79.47 BB (VPIP: 11.04, PFR: 8.18, 3Bet Preflop: 4.23, Hands: 163)
CO: 121.62 BB (VPIP: 26.23, PFR: 11.67, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 61)
BTN: 143.79 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
SB: 123.99 BB (VPIP: 20.80, PFR: 17.03, 3Bet Preflop: 8.27, Hands: 330)
BB: 121.79 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 8d 8c
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.79 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.79 BB

Flop : (7.2 BB, 2 players) 5h 2h 3c
BB checks, Hero bets 2.16 BB, BB raises to 6.1 BB, Hero calls 3.94 BB

Turn : (19.4 BB, 2 players) Ah
BB bets 6.94 BB, Hero raises to 23.59 BB, BB calls 16.64 BB

River : (66.58 BB, 2 players) Qs
BB checks, Hero bets 43.94 BB, BB calls 43.94 BB

Hero shows 8d 8c (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 82%, Flop 9%, Turn 6%)

BB shows 3d 3h (Three of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 18%, Flop 91%, Turn 94%)

BB wins 154.46 BB

This Villain was fishy enough that I think I can just fold flop. I told myself it could be a protection raise, and then the turn presented an irresistible bluffing spot. I still don’t regret firing away at turn and river, but I do think I should have folded the flop. Recognizing and exploitively folding against obviously strong lines from weak players is something I used to be more diligent about. I need to regain that discipline.

After that, it was standard stuff. I won some all ins, ran up a large stack, then lost a flip as the bubble approached. That left with me about 25bbs which I nursed until we were in the money. I found a spot to open jam about 10bb with Kh 9h from MP and was horrified when a player who’d been quite tight snap called from the HJ. I guess he was ready to gamble now that he’d cashed, though, because he had Qs Ts. The flop was all clubs and missed both of us. The turn was the Qc, but then the river was a fifth club so we ended up chopping. What a roller coaster!

The very next hand an early position player jammed 4bb, I reshoved AJo, someone else shoved, and then the BB, who was extremely short, called off the rest with his AJs. He actually made a flush to win the main pot, but I couldn’t outrun 88 for the much larger sidepot, so I finished with a min cash.

Still, I’ve cashed two of the eight WCOOP events I’ve played so far, and both felt like they could easily have been deeper runs (as did a few of the non-cashes). There’s a lot I’m doing that I’m really happy about – just got to find some discipline and some (more) rungood!

Edit: Taking today off. Was going to play the $1000 6-max shootout, but it’s capped at 216 runners and will probably be a tough field. The $215 8-game always sounds fun, but I think a day off will be more fun than (probably) busting early or (best case scenario) playing Razz until 2AM.

PokerStars – 500/1000 PL Hi (6 max) – Omaha Hi – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 48.94 BB (VPIP: 47.62, PFR: 23.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
SB: 122.09 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 21)
Hero (BB): 45.3 BB
UTG: 178.14 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
MP: 33.32 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
CO: 215.82 BB (VPIP: 47.62, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Js As 4d Qs
fold, fold, CO raises to 3.5 BB, fold, SB calls 3 BB, Hero calls 2.5 BB

Flop : (10.5 BB, 3 players) 4h 9d Tc
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn : (10.5 BB, 3 players) 5h
SB checks, Hero bets 10.5 BB, CO calls 10.5 BB, fold

River : (31.5 BB, 2 players) Jd
Hero checks, CO bets 31.5 BB, Hero calls 31.3 BB and is all-in

CO shows Kh 7s Ks 3h (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 57%, Flop 43%, Turn 68%)

Hero shows Js As 4d Qs (Two Pair, Jacks and Fours)
(Pre 43%, Flop 57%, Turn 33%)

Hero wins 94.1 BB

I made the money, surprising no one more than myself, and ultimately busted with dignity, holding a pair and a wrap against top two pair that turned a boat. I had to run the equity afterwards, but I got it in with about 62%, so can’t feel bad about that:

PokerStars – 8000/16000 PL Hi (6 max) – Omaha Hi – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 35.37 BB (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 4.55, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
Hero (CO): 46.58 BB
BTN: 72.41 BB (VPIP: 29.69, PFR: 14.06, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 128)
SB: 40.05 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 30)
BB: 65.48 BB (VPIP: 30.56, PFR: 17.36, 3Bet Preflop: 1.96, Hands: 147)
UTG: 43.88 BB (VPIP: 42.55, PFR: 21.28, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 47)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4h 3d 6d 7c
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.79 BB, BTN calls 2.79 BB, SB calls 2.29 BB, fold

Flop : (9.37 BB, 3 players) 6h 5c Qd
SB checks, Hero bets 6.18 BB, BTN raises to 27.92 BB, fold, Hero raises to 43.79 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 15.86 BB

Turn : (96.94 BB, 2 players) 6c

River : (96.94 BB, 2 players) Ah

Hero shows 4h 3d 6d 7c (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 44%, Flop 61%, Turn 0%)

BTN shows Kd As Qs 6s (Full House, Sixes full of Aces)
(Pre 56%, Flop 39%, Turn 100%)

BTN wins 96.94 BB

Although in retrospect maybe this just isn’t a good open from the CO? Like I said, undoubtedly lots of small mistakes.

I got trounced in the $1K in an interesting spot:

PokerStars – 175/350 Ante 45 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 178.74 BB (VPIP: 22.60, PFR: 15.46, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 209)
UTG: 237.43 BB (VPIP: 20.20, PFR: 13.07, 3Bet Preflop: 5.60, Hands: 307)
Hero (UTG+1): 147.77 BB
MP: 121.09 BB (VPIP: 27.81, PFR: 18.67, 3Bet Preflop: 14.07, Hands: 608)
MP+1: 117.71 BB (VPIP: 22.44, PFR: 15.81, 3Bet Preflop: 9.48, Hands: 259)
MP+2: 240.61 BB (VPIP: 9.82, PFR: 5.94, 3Bet Preflop: 1.89, Hands: 226)
CO: 64.04 BB (VPIP: 23.45, PFR: 16.25, 3Bet Preflop: 7.44, Hands: 293)
BTN: 135.27 BB (VPIP: 22.26, PFR: 18.96, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 276)
SB: 141.29 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.66 BB) Hero has Ah 8h
fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 2.28 BB, SB calls 1.78 BB, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (10.28 BB, 4 players) 8d 2c 7h
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 6.78 BB, fold, SB raises to 21 BB, fold, Hero calls 14.22 BB

Turn : (52.28 BB, 2 players) 7c
SB bets 35 BB, Hero raises to 124.36 BB and is all-in, SB calls 82.88 BB and is all-in

River : (288.03 BB, 2 players) 6h

SB shows 7s As (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 36%, Flop 8%, Turn 95%)

Hero shows Ah 8h (Two Pair, Eights and Sevens)
(Pre 64%, Flop 92%, Turn 5%)

SB wins 288.03 BB

Of course it looks bad that Villain hit a two-outer, but I think he played the hand well, and there are other ways for him to win besides binking. I like my flop defend. It’s a nasty spot, but I think given how often I’ll hold overpairs in this same spot, I should continue with this hand (which blocks 88 and 87s) and mostly dump those.

I thought of the turn as a better card than it probably was. Of course it makes sets/two-pair less likely, but I didn’t really consider that 7x would be a likely flop bluffing hand for Villain because he wants to block 77 and 87s. In retrospect, folding or even calling turn might well be better than sticking it in, even with a bounty on the Villain (which really isn’t likely to come into play, come to think of it).

I had a tricky spot in the $500 that I’m still not sure about:

PokerStars – 400/800 Ante 100 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 143.26 BB (VPIP: 21.55, PFR: 19.25, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 232)
UTG+1: 49.15 BB (VPIP: 22.62, PFR: 13.41, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 84)
MP: 79.88 BB (VPIP: 19.31, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 6.85, Hands: 668)
Hero (MP+1): 58.58 BB
CO: 62.9 BB (VPIP: 25.84, PFR: 21.32, 3Bet Preflop: 12.16, Hands: 332)
BTN: 86.71 BB (VPIP: 15.91, PFR: 10.13, 3Bet Preflop: 2.21, Hands: 398)
SB: 19.67 BB (VPIP: 21.78, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 9.55, Hands: 487)
BB: 68.82 BB (VPIP: 16.36, PFR: 12.79, 3Bet Preflop: 7.27, Hands: 276)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has 6d 5d
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (6.06 BB, 2 players) 4c 7d 9c
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB raises to 13.61 BB, Hero calls 9.61 BB

Turn : (33.28 BB, 2 players) 9s
BB bets 17 BB, Hero calls 17 BB

River : (67.28 BB, 2 players) Kd
BB bets 35.8 BB and is all-in, fold

BB wins 67.28 BB

It feels bad to call off so much with 6-high, but I still struggle to see a better option. The flop bet and call seem pretty clear-cut. Turn is tricky. Of course I could be in bad shape vs a 9, but I could also be very live against a flush draw, and if Villain doesn’t have the flush draw then I may get the opportunity to rep it if it comes in. I don’t think jamming the turn is any good, but I could certainly be convinced that it’s a fold.

I lost the rest with AK to 99 all in pre, nothing too exciting there.

I considered taking today off, but it’s dreary outside, so I’ll likely play the $215 rebuy.

Links

Twitch
Twitter
Joe Ingram Interview

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
4:45 – KL
62:49 – strat

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
8:29 – strat
46:20 – etay

Strategy

NLHE tournament, 2000/4000 with a 400 ante. I had the big stack at the table, at about 280k or so. The villain in this hand was second in chips with 235k. There were roughly 36 players left, with 32 getting paid.

Action folds to him in the hijack, he makes it 11,500, I have JJ, and make it 30k. All fold back to him, he calls quickly.

Pot is ~69k . He checks blind (he did this a lot). Flop comes 467r. I bet 45K, Villain calls.

Pot ~159k. He checks blind again (less common for him to do this on the turn). Turn is a 2. I check behind.

~159k. River is a 3. He thinks for a couple seconds and shoves for 161k.

Strategy

Hand 1

I’m in MP with 9c9d, a stack of $5.56 and raise to 15c, it folds around to the SB with a stack of $5.96 who 3bet to 35c. It folds back to me and I make an easy call.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 7s, 5s, 6h ] Pot: 0.75c.
Villain bets [ $0.36 USD ]
hero calls [ $0.36 USD ]

** Dealing Turn ** [ 2d ] Pot: $1.47
Villain bets [ $0.70 USD ]
hero calls [ $0.70 USD ]

** Dealing River ** [ Jh ] Pot: $2.87
Villain bets [ $1 USD ]

Hand 2

I had 77 utg and limped.  It limped around all the way to the button who just flatted.

Five players to the flop of k 7 4 rainbow.  I checked checked all the way to button who bet 12. I just called 12.  The cutoff also called.

The turn brings a 6 diamonds.  2 diamonds on the board.

I check.  Check on cutoff and the button bets 35.  I wait 30 seconds and then reraise to 100.

Cutoff hymns and haws and I put him in 75d and he calls after 1 minute or more.  The button calls instantly.

River brings j diamonds.  I check quickly and the c/o quickly moves all in for 210.

The button calls immediately for less – like 60.

Hand 3

1/2 game in Arizona. Hero has $350 effective, and is the big stack at the table. Both usual suspects limp, and hero checks his option from the BB with Ad 6s.

The flop comes all diamonds. T72. I bet $10, and one of the more laggy players three bets me to $25. The other one folds. I call.

Turn is the Jh. I check. Villain leads for $30. I call.

River comes JD, pairing the board but also giving me the nut flush. I lead for $25, Opponent clicks back pretty quickly, making it $50.

Plus, a big announcement from Nate, and Andrew discusses a big call down he made in the WSOP Main Event.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello & welcome
16:30 – strategy
50:30 – Benny Glaser

Strategy

Beginning of Level 2, 150/300. I open to 750 UTG2 with ATo (while noting that the very active Euro on my left is doing the fold hold). CO, BN, and BB call. CO and BN are among the weaker players at the table, BB seems quite good.

Flop T66cc, check to me, I bet 1200 into 3000ish, only BB calls (he called pretty quickly, though I put less stock in timing tells for better players).

Turn 4o. He checks, I bet 2200, he raises to 8000, and I take a long time calling.

River 3o. He bets 16K into 25K.

Clayton previously discussed his deep run in the WSOP Main Event on this show. Follow Clayton on Twitter@claytoncomic and learn more about his upcoming shows from his website. His podcast is Broadway Comedy Club Radio.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
29:09 – Strategy

WSOP Prep

Tournament Poker Edge
Zach Elwood on poker tells

Strategy

Playing £1/£2 NLHE with £420 effective stacks. Hero opens to £8 with Ad 4d on the Button. Small blind folds and villain calls in the BB.

Pot is £17
Flop – JdJs5d

Villain checks, Hero bets £12, Villain raises to £28, Hero calls.

Pot £73
Turn is 7d

Villain bets £100, Hero calls.

Pot £273
River – 8h
Final board – JdJs5d7d8h

Villain checks, Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
8:14 – Strategy

Strategy

Hand 1

We’re on the bubble, with 20 players remaining and 18 to be paid. Blinds are 1500/3000, and I raise to 6000 UTG (7-handed) with Tc 8c. The only player at the table to have me covered 3-bets to 12K from HJ, and I call.

Flop (34K) Ks 9h 7h. I check, he bets 15K, I raise to 45K, he calls.

Turn (124K) 4h. I bet 45K, he calls.

River (214K) Qc.

Hand 2

$1/$2 NLHE, seven-handed, $300 effective stacks.

UTG+1 opens to $15. CO and BN call, Hero calls Qh 6h in the BB.

Flop ($55) Q97r. Hero checks, UTG1 bets $20, CO and BN fold, Hero calls.

Turn ($95) 6. Hero bets $35, UTG1 raises to $100, Hero shoves.

Hand 3

$2/$5 Spread Limit O/8 with a $100 Max Bet, 9-handed, $250 effective stacks.

Hero limps AA92 UTG, several calls, Button raises to $40. Folds to Hero…

In our strategy segment, we discuss bluffing at the micro-stakes.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
9:58 – Strategy
37:40 – Interview: Matt Bodnar

Recommended Reading

Mindset: The New Science of Success by Carol S. Dweck
Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance by Robert Pirsig
Getting Things Done by David Allen
The Wisdom of Insecurity by Alan Watts
Cosmos by Carl Sagan

Strategy

$0.01/$0.02 NLHE on PokerStars

MP ($2.75) opens to $0.04, Hero calls in CO with 9s 8s, Button ($6.21) raises to $0.14, MP folds, Hero calls.

Flop ($0.35) 6s Qd 3h. Check check.

Turn ($0.35) 6h. Hero bets $0.20, Villain calls.

River ($0.75) 4s. Hero checks, Villain bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.22.

Fortunately, I managed to win the first few pots of the day, first with an open shove to take the blinds, then with an UTG raise which went uncontested, then calling a shove with AT in the BB to beat A9 from the SB for a full double.

After that, I was back in action. As I mentioned, I ended Day 1 with a major regret from the then-largest pot of the tournament, but I can honestly say that from Day 2 I can think of only very small things I wish I’d done differently. A few hands I’m proud of:

Bluff on the Bubble

We’re on the bubble, with 20 players remaining and 18 to be paid. Blinds are 1500/3000, and I raise to 6000 UTG with Tc 8c. The only player at the table to have me covered 3-bets to 12K (he said later this was a misclick and he meant to make it 17K, which I believe), and I call.

Flop (34K) Ks 9h 7h. I check, he bets 15K, I raise to 45K, he calls.

Turn (124K) 4h. I bet 45K, he calls.

River (214K) Qc. I shove about 120K, he folds AK and asks me to show. I oblige.

Better Bet Sizing Through Tells

Still on the bubble. Blinds 1500/3000. The player in the BB has only about 60K to start the hand. An active recreational player with a big stack raises to 7500 from the HJ. I have him covered and raise to 20K. A very tight player in the SB looks at his cards and instantly jams ~65K. I put him on KK at worst and am ready to fold, but then the original raiser calls, so I decide to see a flop.

Edit: I have 66!

Flop (~215K) 884r. Checks through.

Turn 4. Checks through.

River 6. Bingo. Original raiser checks, and I am trying to think about how much he might call just an Ace. In my head, I settle on a small number, 40K.

As I grab chips, he says “Dammit!” and kinda bangs the table. I know that sounds so blatant that it must be an act, but in the moment it really felt like genuine frustration at the fact that he knew I was about to put him in a tough spot. This suggested to me that he would actually consider calling a larger bet, so I bet 75K. After much agonizing, he called with an Ace. The all in player had AA, so I scooped a big one there.

Bluff Catching at the Final Table

Recent podcast guest Chase Bianchi was at the final table of 10 with me (and recent podcast guest Elena Stover finished 12th).

Blinds are 2500/5000. UTG1 limps, Chase limps in MP3, the SB folds, and I check my option with the mighty 42o.

Flop (22,500) Q54r. Checks to Chase, who bets 12,500. I raise to 30K, UTG1 folds, and Chase calls. Lots of good things can happen when I raise. Although I may well have the best hand (I don’t think Chase needs much at all to stab at this), it benefits a lot from protection. It’s even possible that I can push UTG1 off of a better pocket pair and get called when I’m ahead against Chase, if he has a draw or just a random float.

Turn (82,500) 5. I bet 45K. This is actually a pretty nice card for me. Even though it reduces the combos of sets and two-pair that I could have, I still have all of them in my range, whereas Chase has only an ever-dwindling number of 54, 44, and 55, some of which I block (suits are actually relevant here, as I imagine he might limp 54s but not 54o, but I don’t remember them). I don’t know how much Qx or 4x he’s limping, and the turn makes 5x less likely for him.

He calls. I now think his range consists of 76, Qx, pocket pairs, 54, 55, and 44 (at least some of which may check the flop). My plan is to check-call river if the straight draw misses, as I don’t think he has much incentive to jam a better pair for value.

River (172,500) 2. I check, he jams 98K, I call, and he shows 97s, which quite surprising to me. I don’t recall whether he had a backdoor flush draw on the flop, but he definitely did not have a flush draw on the turn, so I guess he just thought he was going to straight up own me. Whoops!

In addition to giving me a comfortable chip lead at the final table, this call had several good effects. It eliminated one of my toughest opponents, and it sufficiently awed most of the table such that they were not inclined to mess around with me.

The Rest

We got down to five-handed with me, a satellite qualifier, a guy named Steve who knew me from Tournament Poker Edge, a likely pro from Michigan, and a guy named Carlos Chadha – more on him in a moment.

The satellite qualifier was absolutely unwilling to put his chips in without a top 5% hand, pot odds be damned. He eventually even folded his SB, leaving himself with just three ante chips. Amazingly, he kept picking up AQ and winning with it to stay alive. Eventually, he busted in 5th place.

The kid from Michigan seemed good-natured at heart, so maybe he was just a bit tilted, because on this particular evening he was acting like a salty circuity grinder. He was the second shortest stack at the table, which meant he was handcuffed by the presence of the satellite qualifier who just wouldn’t die. He was getting frustrated at the guy’s abject refusal to put money in the pot and started just openly commenting on how bad some of his folds were. I was happy to see him go out in 4th.

As I mentioned, Steve knew me from Tournament Poker Edge. Carlos, as it turned out, knew me from Poker Savvy Plus, a pre-Black Friday training site I worked for for several years. He was old school and, now, a high roller. Literally, a super high roller. This $570 was the smallest live tournament he’d ever deigned to play. But he was in the area, and he’d never won a live tournament, and he really wanted to do so.

Much as I hate to admit it, I doubt I was the best player out of the three of us. Carlos had an aura of confidence and deep thought about him, and I never saw him miss a trick. Actually, that’s not quite true. He once called down with an unimproved K2 vs Steve, only to find that Steve was indeed bluffing… with a better King! But I mean, if the biggest “mistake” you’re making is correctly identifying a bluff and calling down with King-high….

A Hero Check

We passed chips back and forth for over three hours. Really the only interesting pot I was involved in began with me raising the button (sorry, I don’t recall the stakes – couldn’t keep notes well while playing short-handed) with Kd Qd. Carlos called in the SB, and Steve called in the BB.

Flop As Td 6c. Checks around.

Turn Jd. Bingo. Carlos checks, Steve bets 75K, I raise to 175K with about 325K behind, Carlos folds, and Steve calls.

River Tc. Certainly not what I wanted to see. I watched Steve like a hawk as the river card came down, and to his credit, he didn’t give anything away as it fell, nor as he checked. Not a lot of people can so casually react to such a significant card with so much on the line, and it was only for that reason that I even considered betting the river. I just couldn’t figure what he could call with, as I think he would have re-raised pre-flop with AK/AQ, A6 and J6 got counterfeited, and from the way he called the turn I didn’t really think he had a bare Ace. I checked and allowed my pride in finding that check to counteract my disappointment in seeing Steve roll AT for a full house.

The End

I eventually busted Steve when he jammed ATs on the button and I woke up with QQ in the SB. That left me heads up with Carlos with nearly even stacks, something like his 1.1M to my 1M. That was only 20 big blinds, so there wasn’t much room to play.

I was hoping I might at least be the more experienced heads up player, but apparently Carlos was an online heads up pro for a while. He certainly seemed to know what he was going on a 20BB stack, which to be honest that part of my game is not particularly tight. I haven’t put much thought into a button limping range, for instance.

It was over quickly, though. Just a few hands in, he limped the button for 50K, and I, now with an 18BB stack, raised to 175K with A7s. He jammed, I called, and he showed me TT. Although I turned a flush draw, I didn’t get there on the river, and Carlos won his first-ever live poker tournament!

Although A7s is a strong hand with just a single opponent and 18BBs, against a weaker player, I might not force the action pre-flop. Against Carlos, though, I didn’t feel like there was any room to pass on thin edges, so I went for the raise-call. Basically it was just a cooler, which in all likelihood was how the match was going to end one way or the other.

We finished play around 12:30, nearly 12 hours after we started, but there’s no rest for the weary. The $1500 Main Event starts today!

I suspect, though, that even if we were to give the Hero a slightly stronger holding, such as QQ, many people would still be reluctant to shove. Why is this?

I believe the overriding cause to be classic loss aversion: at some level; most human brains are more concerned about not-losing than they are about winning. Even when we can expect to win at a favorable, very profitable frequency, our guts may very well tell us to be careful.

Does that sound like you? Did you find the article helpful? Please let me know in the comments!

And don’t miss Carlos Welch’s great piece on How to Develop and Use Reads!

Can it? Join us Wednesday at 5PM Eastern on Twitch to find out as Nate and Andrew battle in real time against DeepStack.

Links

Tournament Poker Edge

DeepStackAI Article in Science

Timestamps

Strategy

From a €500 deep stack tournament in Dublin. Blinds are 150/300/25 and effective stacks are 100-110k.

UTG limps, folds to MP who makes it 700, folds to Hero on the button who 3-bets to 2100 with AQo. UTG 4-bets to 7000. MP folds, Hero calls.

Pot: 15,450
Flop: 9c 7s 2h

UTG bets 6500. Hero calls.

Pot: 28,450
Turn: Qd

UTG bets 11,200. Hero calls.

Pot: 50,850
River: 5s

UTG bets 35,000. Hero?

Links

Tournament Poker Edge

NYC Live Event with Just Hands Poker

DeepStackAI Article in Science

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
13:08 – strat
45:14 – nikolai

Strategy

Hand 1

60/120 Limit Hold ‘Em

Button raises, Hero 3-bets ATo in SB, BN 4-bets, Hero calls.

Flop (4.5 BBs) T42r. Check, bet, call.

Turn (5.5 BBs) A. Check, bet, raise, call.

River (7.5 BBs) T. Bet, fold.

Hand 2

$1/$3 NLHE, $390 effective stacks.

Utg+1 calls, MP raises to 13, Hero raise to 35 with QQ on btn, folds back to MP who calls. 

Flop ($77) Qh 9h 6c. Check, Hero bets $40, call.

Turn ($157) Jh. Check, Hero bets $80, Villain raises to $200, Hero calls

River ($557) Qh 9h 6c Jh 2h. Villain jams $150, Hero folds.

“You are UTG+1 in a nine-handed $5/$10 game in which all players have $2,000 stacks. The UTG player opens to $40. Consider your action with each of the following hands: AA, AKo, AQs, KQo, JTs, 65s.”

Of course, I go on to help you consider your action, using the theoretical framework from the previous article. Hope you’ll find it useful!

The first half of my conversation with Matt is available here.

Timestamps

0:30 = hello
23:05 = strat

Strategy

$2/$5 Hero ($700) opens to $20 UTG with AKo. Four callers, both blinds fold.

Flop ($105) AQ9r. Hero bets $55, Villain raises to $175, rest fold, Hero?

Time for Some Game Theory

It’s probably impossible to find a game theoretically optimal betting strategy for me on the flop, and likewise a calling strategy for Villain, as there are more than two players in the game. The river, however, is a different situation.

It’s quite likely that I’m playing a capped range after checking the turn (which may be sufficient reason not to check). If – and this won’t necessarily be the case, we’ll return to that question – Villain arrives at the river with a mix of nut hands (that beat everything in my range), air (that lose to everything in my range), and hands in between, then this is basically just the AKQ game from Mathematics of Poker, and Villain should probably bet all of his nut hands and all of his bluffs for a size that makes me indifferent between calling and folding with my bluff-catchers.

I hedge a little bit there because even in a straightforward scenario like the one I define above actual poker is a bit more complicated than the AKQ game. Blockers, for instance, can make the actual solutions more complex. Still, this is about as good an approximation as you’ll find for the AKQ game in an actual poker hand.

Hand Reading

The biggest caveat is that Villain may not get to the river a lot of air. As several commenters point out, there are good reasons why he might prefer to bet hands without showdown value on the flop rather than check and call with them.

However, that’s not enough to decide that he’s weighted towards value here, for at least two reasons:

1. Many of his strongest value hands might prefer to bet or check-raise the flop as well. Frankly, the flop check-call probably eliminates many of the hands that would otherwise be most likely to overbet the river, whether for value or as a bluff, including busted draws, sets, and even strong top pair hands. It’s a weird, uncommon line, which often means it’s likely to be unbalanced. However, if we can’t deduce or predict the imbalance, then game theory still provides a way to avoid playing into his hands.
2. One option for “finding bluffs” on the river is to turn a hand with a small amount of showdown value into a bluff. If Villain played a hand like AXhh or bottom pair this way on the flop, he may well conclude that bluffing the river would be higher EV than checking, even though his showdown value was part of the reason he played the flop the way he did.

Why Call?

If I’m roughly indifferent between calling and folding at equilibrium, why should I ever call with a bluff-catcher? It’s an understandable question, but as I argue in my recent article To Catch a Bluff:

Remember that an opponent bluffing at a game theoretically optimal frequency is, well, theoretical. It’s the assumption that we make in the absence of any better estimate of her bluffing strategy. If it turns out that she has a particularly poor strategy, bluffing with hands that are really too strong to turn into bluffs, then your bluff-catchers that break-even against an optimal bluffing strategy will actually make money. So, calling with those hands is a freeroll, as long as you don’t call with so many of them that you end up incentivizing your opponent to stop bluffing entirely.

There remains the question of whether my particular hand is a “pure” bluff-catcher or a better-than-average bluff-catcher. With only a vague idea of what Villain’s exact bluff or value hands might be, it’s hard to say with certainty which blockers could make my hand better-than-average. I’m inclined to think that having a heart would be bad and that blocking a set of 8s, top two pair, and a turned straight is good, but depending on the composition of his range for arriving at the river, these effects may be small or non-existent.

They Always Have It

My favorite response to this post came in a tweet that, sadly, I’m not unable to find. I mentioned posting a WYP about facing an overbet on the river, and someone responded to the effect of, “I didn’t read the post, but I fold.” This is reminiscent of a hashtag I’m fond of using, sometimes with tongue in cheek: #TheyAlwaysHaveIt.

There are lots of reasons why the average player bluffs at a lower-than-optimal frequency in many situations. One is just a simple fear of losing. Human brains tend to be loss-averse, which means that they tend to over-emphasize the consequences of losing a bluff. Mathematically, if a bluff of 150% of the pot will cause 70% of an opponent’s better hands to fold and will never be bluff-raised, then it will show a profit. However, if some part of your brain cares more about the money you lose when the bluff is called than the money you win when the bluff succeeds, then it may convince you that the bluff isn’t worth attempting.

On top of that, it can be hard to find bluff candidates. It’s usually obvious when you have a hand strong enough to value bet, but it’s not always clear which hands are best for bluffing. That’s especially true in a case like this one, where, as I argued above, bluffing at an optimal frequency may require the Villain to bet hands with some showdown value.

Results

#TheyAlwaysHaveIt logic becomes less applicable the more sophisticated your opponent is. I didn’t have much experience with this opponent, but he seemed more than competent, and I didn’t want to pursue an excessively exploitive strategy against him.

My logic went something like this:

1. The base rate for bluffing in this situation is probably too little rather than too much, so applying Bayes’ Theorem should lead me to fold pure bluff-catchers.
2. This opponent seems better than most, and the above logic is exploitable, so I don’t want to deviate too drastically from a balanced calling strategy.
3. My hand may be better than a pure bluff-catcher because of the blocker effect.
4. I call.

Villain had Ah Jh, which makes perfect sense and, to my chagrin, was not a hand I considered. The call kind of feels like a mistake in retrospect, but that may just be results oriented thinking. Thanks for your input, everyone!

If you didn’t donate during the campaign, please enjoy the video and then donate whatever you feel it was worth to you. Thanks!

Edit: Courtesy of Carlos Welch, here are links to the TV footage of the hands we discuss:

Hand 1
https://youtu.be/Cbwe7cP2jQI?t=2393

Hand 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2qhk6Xuq0k

Also please note that there’s a typo in the video for Hand 2. The flop was actually 844 with two diamonds.

Flop ($205) Jc 8h 6h. Checks to me, I bet $100, folds back to good pro in HJ who calls.

Turn ($405) 5d. Both check.

River ($405) 2s. Villain bets $600. Hero?

Post your thoughts and preferred play in the comments, and I’ll do my best to respond and post results as well as my own thoughts at the end of the week.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
16:11 – strat
43:40 – kyle

Strategy

Hand 1

$200 MTT. Blinds 600/1200/200. Hero opens to 3000 with Ah As in early position, BB calls.

Flop (8400) Kd 9s 3s. Check, 4200, call.

Turn (16800) 3. Check, Hero bets 9200, call.

River (34,400) 8s. BB is all in for ~30K, Hero?

Hand 2

7-handed at final table. Blinds 30K/60K, Hero (2.2M) is chipleader and opens to 150K UTG with AQo, second chipleader calls on Button (1.5M), BB (450Kish) calls.

(525K) 854r BB checks, Hero bets 225K, Button calls, BB folds.

(975K) 7. Hero?

When you three-bet, you’re gearing up to play a big pot, so you ought to come strapped. That doesn’t have to mean Aces, but it should mean a hand with a reasonable chance of winning the pot if you go to the flop. In most cases, the stronger your hand, the higher the Expected Value (EV) of your three-bet will be.

It does not follow from this that you should therefore three-bet a strictly linear range, starting from Aces and working your way down. The complication is that many hands that will have a high EV when they three-bet will also have a high EV when they call. Your job is to decide, when you have a reasonably good hand, whether it will play better as a three-bet or a call in this particular situation.

How do you decide when to three-bet? Was this article helpful to you?

Eileen is the author of The Total Poker Manual. You can follow her on Twitter @PokerForGirls and read the articles she’s written for Red Chip Poker.

In our strategy segment, our correspondent asks about how to play a big draw facing some weird bets.

Nate’s new project is Gonfalon Bubble. Andrew would appreciate, and is offering prizes for, donations to the Bay Area Urban Debate League. Use our Amazon Affiliate links to support the podcast while you do your holiday shopping.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
14:56 – Strategy
48:27 – Interview: Eileen Sutton

Strategy

Edit: Replaced with the correct hand history!

WSOP Senior’s circuit event in Cherokee, NC. The blinds are 800/1,600 with a 400 ante. I have approximately 42K in chips and villain covers. There are 9 players at the table.

Villain in 3rd position limps. I am directly to his left with KsQs and raise to 3,500. BB calls.

Pot is now 14,900 and I have 38,100 remaining.

Flop is Jc 8h 4s. BB checks and villain bets 3,000. I call.

Pot is now 20,900 and I have $35,100 remaining. Turn is 9s making the board Jc 8h 4s 3s. Villain again leads for 3,000. I call.

We go to the river with $26,900 pot and my stack at $32,100. The river is a blank and he checks.

I folded, and I don’t think it’s close. The short explanation is #TheyAlwaysHaveIt. Here’s a longer one:

Is This a Bluff-Catcher?

The first question to ask is whether Villain could be raising worse for value. If yes, he’s either making a huge mistake, or you should not fold. Here, I think it’s unlikely that worse raises for value. The only lower flushes possible are 52dd and 42dd, which are unlikely in a raised pot, and in any event would be awfully ambitious raises (the “huge mistake” exception.

Some comments mention straights or overpairs raising. I really don’t see that happening. The mistake here, I imagine, comes from thinking of betting or raising primarily in terms of protection, which is in fact a very secondary consideration here. You can’t “protect” a hand that may well be behind already – the cost/risk of putting in a raise drawing dead far outweighs any protection benefit.

Now you might argue that a recreational player may not think in those terms, but most tend to err on the side of being too passive, especially when it comes to large bets. Not to mention that a player excessively concerned about protecting his hand would probably raise the flop, not the turn.

It’s also worth noting that a player overvaluing weaker hands may also overvalue slightly stronger hands such as Q- or J-high flushes, which is of course bad news for us.

In short, Hero has a bluff-catcher. To decide how to play such a hand, we can start by thinking exploitively about whether this is a spot where Villain is likely to over- or underbluff.

Is Villain Bluffing Enough?

This is quite a difficult spot for Villain to bluff, because (a) he’s raising into a player who is uncapped; and (b) in order to bluff, he needs to get to the turn with a hand that has minimal showdown value and that doesn’t mind re-opening the betting.

That last caveat is important, because, as many comments point out, a bare Ad is a hand without showdown value that sees the turn. If the raise were a shove, enabling Villain to realize the equity of his draw, I would consider that plausible. However, most players will, probably correctly, not raise the Ad here for fear of facing a shove. Again, I think that if he were inclined to raise this kind of hand, he’d be more likely to do it on the flop.

Hero does have blockers to higher flushes, making this perhaps a slightly-better-than-neutral-EV bluff catch against an optimal bluffing strategy. However, there are many reasons to think Villain is in fact underbluffing this spot quite severely.

I was glad to see that nobody really took the bait concerning the straight flush redraw. It, too, could make the hand a slightly-better-than-neutral bluff catcher, but it’s not nearly enough to overcome the situational factors here.

Results

I folded, as did the second player, but the Villain showed Ad Kd anyway. Frankly, I think even this is optimistic on his part (after all, I folded a lower flush). If he’s ahead, he probably has us drawing slim to dead anyway, and he blocks the hand most likely to pay him off (a K-high flush). In his shoes, I would call and probably call the river, though I can actually imagine scenarios where I fold his hand.

In my own shoes, I would not have bet my 9d8d on the river had Villain just called turn, and there’s a good chance I would have folded it to a bet. It really is not that high up in my range, as I can have lots of better flushes as well as most full houses.

Playing $5/$10 No-Limit at Maryland Live, a game that does not participate in the Bad Beat Jackpot and other promotions. I don’t have a lot of experience with either Villain, but there’s a good chance they know who I am (a lot of people at MDL, many of whom I’ve never spoken to, have turned out to be familiar with the podcast, blog, or Twitter account). At the very least, I expect they perceive me as a smart player who won’t take anything off of the table in terms of bluffs, hero calls, thin value, etc.

UTG1 is a pro who plays mostly 5/10, don’t think I’ve ever seen him at 10/25. MP is a recreational player about whom I don’t know much.

I’m going to skip straight to the major decision in the hand, because I don’t think the others are terribly interesting, but feel free to ask in the comments if other actions surprise you.

Hero ($2000) opens to $35 UTG with 9d 8d. UTG1 ($3500) calls. Two players fold, and then MP ($1800) calls. Everyone else folds.

Flop ($120 in pot) 7d 6d 3d. Hero bets $80, both call.

Turn ($360 in pot) 3c. Hero bets $220, UTG1 folds, MP raises to $625, Hero?

Post your thoughts here. I’ll do my best to respond throughout the week, and will post my own thoughts as well as results on Friday.

In the meantime, here’s my latest strategy article for 2+2 Magazine, entitled “Why So Much?“:

[T]here are many situations where very large (or small, for that matter) bets don’t have to mean anything in particular. They can easily be made with a balanced range, in a way that does not cost the bettor anything with any individual hand in that range relative to a different bet size he could also employ. Learning to distinguish between situations where large bets can be balanced and situations where they can not is the key to determining whether your opponent is revealing anything with any particular bet.

Please check it out and let me know what you think!

Timestamps

0:30 – hello and welcome
19:22 – donk bets with justin

Strategy

Hero (covers) raises to 12 UTG with AcKc
folds to button ($230) calls
BB ($300) calls.

Flop ($33 after rake): 5x7c8c

BB: leads for $20, Hero calls, Button Folds.

Turn (~$70 after rake): Kh

BB leads for $35, Hero calls.

River: (~$145) 2d

BB leads for $75, Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
18:29 Strategy
41:25 William Kassouf

Strategy

$2/$5 No-Limit Hold ‘Em

HJ ($2000) opens to $20. Hero ($1200) raises to $40 with Kd Kh. Button ($2000) calls, as does the small blind ($1500).

Flop ($160): 5d 6c 7h. SB checks, HJ checks, Hero bets $60, only SB calls.

Turn ($280): 3d. SB bets $150. Hero calls.

River ($580) 4d. SB bets $425. Hero?

0:30 – hello
11:06 – strategy

Strategy

Blinds 300/600/75. Hero opens to 1500 UTG+1 with AA. Folds around to the villain, who flats on the button. Blinds fold. Pot is about 4500 with antes.

The Flop: KJT rainbow. Hero bets 1500, Villain raises to 4500, Hero calls.

The Turn: Pot is now 13500 and the turn is the rainbow 2. Hero checks, Villain bets 7500 with 17K behind, Hero?

I already posted one from the $200 Warm-Up, so here’s one from the second event that I played, the $1K Sunday Million. It’s an example of a concept that came up in the discussion of the previous hand, which is when to turn a hand that you originally called with for showdown value into a bluff. Here’s an example where, although I had a pair on the flop, the board ran out in a way that made it nearly impossible for me to win without bluffing, and also strengthened the rest of my range such that this is now close enough to the bottom to be a bluffing candidate on the river.

PokerStars – $1000+$50|500/1000 Ante 125 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 32.23 BB (VPIP: 26.26, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 99)
SB: 41.23 BB (VPIP: 25.53, PFR: 21.74, 3Bet Preflop: 19.05, Hands: 48)
Hero (BB): 97.29 BB
UTG: 87.76 BB (VPIP: 13.76, PFR: 11.65, 3Bet Preflop: 4.44, Hands: 109)
UTG+1: 35.24 BB (VPIP: 16.84, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 2.44, Hands: 190)
MP: 122.99 BB (VPIP: 27.78, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
MP+1: 53.42 BB (VPIP: 9.38, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 32)
MP+2: 88.98 BB (VPIP: 15.91, PFR: 11.20, 3Bet Preflop: 3.51, Hands: 264)
CO: 161.21 BB (VPIP: 18.61, PFR: 14.67, 3Bet Preflop: 8.67, Hands: 468)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has 7s 8d
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop : (5.63 BB, 2 players) 9c 8c Th
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn : (5.63 BB, 2 players) Qh
Hero checks, BTN checks

River : (5.63 BB, 2 players) Ad
Hero bets 3.38 BB, fold

Hero wins 5.63 BB

For more on playing a wide range out of the Big Blind, see my Big Blind Defense series on Tournament Poker Edge.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
10:42 NLO8 Strategy

Hand 1

PokerStars – $300+$20|400/800 Ante 100 NL Hi/Lo (6 max) – Omaha Hi/Lo – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 24.38 BB
BB: 41.66 BB
UTG: 35.74 BB
MP: 48 BB
Hero (CO): 23.1 BB
BTN: 30.23 BB

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has 4c Kc As Ts
fold, MP raises to 2.19 BB, Hero calls 2.19 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.19 BB

Flop : (7.81 BB, 3 players) 3c 8h 6c
BB bets 3.9 BB, MP calls 3.9 BB, fold

Turn : (15.61 BB, 2 players) Jh
BB checks, MP bets 9 BB, BB calls 9 BB

River : (33.61 BB, 2 players) 4h
BB checks, MP bets 32.79 BB and is all-in, BB calls 26.45 BB and is all-in

MP shows Js Kh Ah 2s (High: Flush, Ace High, Low: 6432A)
(Pre 60%, Flop 36%, Turn 69%)

BB shows 2h 3s Ad 7c (High: One Pair, Threes, Low: 6432A)
(Pre 40%, Flop 64%, Turn 31%)

BB wins 21.63 BB
MP wins 64.88 BB

Hand 2

PokerStars – $300+$20|400/800 Ante 100 NL Hi/Lo (6 max) – Omaha Hi/Lo – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 25 BB
CO: 42.04 BB
BTN: 32.37 BB
SB: 34 BB
Hero (BB): 37.72 BB

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.13 BB) Hero has 4s 6c Tc 3s
fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 2.38 BB, Hero calls 1.38 BB

Flop : (5.38 BB, 2 players) Ts 7c 6s
SB bets 3.25 BB, Hero calls 3.25 BB

Turn : (11.88 BB, 2 players) 9s
SB checks, Hero bets 3.56 BB, SB raises to 8.13 BB, Hero calls 4.56 BB

River : (28.13 BB, 2 players) 9h
SB bets 20.12 BB and is all-in, fold

SB wins 28.13 BB

DP1: A6o is a tough hand to play, even when only a single opponent with a random hand remains. Raising denies the BB some equity and reduces the likelihood that you’ll have to play out of position after the flop, but it also sets you up to get blown out by a 3-bet or to play out of position against a stronger range in a raised pot. With antes in the pot, I think you have too much value to fold, but both calling and raising are reasonable options.

DP2: QJo is generally a good enough hand to raise for value into a small blind limp, especially because most people will raise the hands that dominate you and call some dominated hands. I’m not sure why I didn’t raise at the time, and I probably should have.

DP3: A few commenters seem to suggest that Villain can just bet the flop with any two cards because Hero will often “miss”, and against weaker opponents that may be true. However, better players are aware of the relative difficulty of making a pair and will defend appropriately to a flop bet, including by calling with strong unpaired hands and by bluff-raising. That’s not to say that Villain should never bluff, but he should expect only his better bluffing candidates to be profitable. Turning a hand with this much showdown value into a bluff is a mistake, as it is surely a profitable check and call.

You might object that since I called with worse, we can think of Villain’s bet as a value bet. However, overall he will not be ahead of my calling range, and many of my worse hands (though probably not this one) will often bluff him out on future streets anyway.

DP4: This is a clear call. Villain could easily be bluffing, and I ought to beat all of his bluffs plus have reasonable equity even against many of his value bets. Things get a bit dicier if he’s betting his Aces, but even then I suspect that I have enough equity to call.

As for raising, many of the same arguments apply as with Villain’s limp: the hand has too much value to turn into a bluff, at the moment anyway. On runouts that improve my weaker flop calls, I may end up bluffing with this, as it would then be the bottom of my range.

DP5: Villain’s flop bet, along with this turn card, killed any showdown value his hand had, so now it is a bluffing candidate along with the rest of the air he ought to have bet on the flop. However, Villain ought to have other bluffs with better equity available to him and probably ought to give up on this one.

Essentially, he’s got an Ed Miller pyramid problem here. His flop betting range was too wide, and now on the turn he’s going to hold too many weak hands and will have to get rid of them somehow. He can either keep bluffing, which will make my bluff-catches very profitable, of he can just check and fold, which with this hand at least is the better option.

DP6: An easy call. Villain may not be value betting worse, but even so, I have a very solid bluff-catcher. The hand is too strong to raise as a bluff and not strong enough to raise for value.

DP7: Another pyramid problem. Once again, if Villain is getting to the river with too much air and bluffing with all of it, then my bluff catches will be very profitable. This is certainly a board that favors his range, but that doesn’t mean that he’s guaranteed a profitable bluff when he doesn’t have any blockers to my calling range.

DP8: This is a clear call, though not a super-profitable one (unless Villain is bluffing too much, which this one, in retrospect, seems to have been), as I block JT and KQ or other turned two-pairs. Many players won’t go for a third street of value with top pair, at least not for this size, but even against those who do, I expect this to be a profitable call.

PokerWilo asked about my plan for future streets. While it will depend heavily on the runout, I think there’s an underlying assumption to address here, which is that I need to be able to call future barrels. This would be true if we had reason to believe that Villain would always or usually barrel off after betting the flop, and in retrospect it seems like this one might.

However, that’s not information that I had at the time. All I knew is that Villain might keep betting, and he might not. That means that, no matter the turn card, I need to have some bluff-catchers that fold to further bets and some that do not. That way, I punish (or at least do not reward) both players who give up too often and those who barrel too often. On many turn cards, QJ will be in my folding range, but on this one, it’s in my calling range. In a vacuum, there’s nothing wrong with having a range of hands that will call once and fold to further action – in fact, it’s correct.

Thanks for playing, everyone!

The Game: $200 6-max WCOOP Event (Sunday Warm-Up Replacement). Blinds 1600/3200/400. Villain has 145K, Hero has 175K.

Reads/History: Assume each player knows the other to be a successful and experienced tournament player.

Decision Point 1: Villain open-limps As 6d in the small blind.

DP 2: Hero checks Qc Js in the big blind.

Flop (8800 in pot): Kc 8c 3s

DP3: Villain bets 3200.

DP4: Hero calls.

Turn (15200 in pot): Qd.

DP5: Villain bets 7750.

DP6: Hero calls.

River (30700 in pot): 9h

DP 7: Villain bets 22950.

DP8: Hero calls.

Leave a comment about any decision point(s) you find surprising or mistaken, and I’ll share my thoughts later in the week.

One additional note that may be helpful: try to think not just about whether Villain should bluff at all in these spots (he should) or whether Hero should ever call with less than the nuts (he should) but rather whether these specific hands are good for those purposes on each street.

Timestamps

Intro 0:30
Strategy 4:17
Interview 33:27

Strategy

1/1/2 NLHE effective stacks $300

Here raises to $6 in the CO with 7h8h, Button calls, makes it $22 from the big blind. Hero calls and the button folds.

Flop ($49) 10c 8c 6c. Villain bets $20, Hero raises to $85, Villain calls

Turn ($219) 2d. Villain checks, Hero checks.

River 8d. Villain checks, Hero?

Interestingly, though, Qs Ts is a pure bet for 75% of the pot on the river, so I was off there (it strictly folds to a raise). GTORB shows Villain folding T7 98% of the time on the turn, which probably means it’s strictly a fold and the results just didn’t quite converge, rather than that Villain is truly indifferent between calling and folding.

DP1: Uncontroversial.

DP2: Uncontroversial at this stack depth. With deeper stacks, this is a reasonable BB vs BN 3-betting candidate, but with 100BB a 3-bet will just isolate the stronger part of Villain’s range without the opportunity to put pressure on him with draws.

DP3: I don’t see a case for a leading range. This is a really static board, which means protection isn’t much of a concern, and that’s even more true if Villain is going to c-bet too often. Hero probably has more equity on this flop, especially if Villain’s pre-flop range is too wide, but when the pot gets really large, Villain will have a slight range advantage. So, I’m really not looking to force big pots from out of position. I just rarely mind this flop checking through, so I don’t have incentive to develop a leading range.

DP4: Villain’s bet size is large for such a static board. That’s not a big deal in and of itself, but it becomes a problem if he’s also c-betting at a high frequency. For instance, this particular hand probably isn’t a +EV bet if the bet is going to be this large, as he’ll too often be drawing dead against my calling range.

DP5: I don’t think this is close. It’s similar to the question of whether to donk the flop: I don’t have many hands that want to build the pot here. Even with like A8 I can’t really check-raise for value. If I’m going to turn the hand into a bluff, there will be opportunities to do that later. Also, if I check-raise and then turn a flush, I’m not sure that I get to play it like the nuts. Finally, I have showdown value against a too-frequent c-better!

DP6: This seems to be the spot that surprised the most people. At this point I have a really significant equity advantage, especially against someone who c-bets too often. Most of my flop check-call range is going to be flush draws, trips, and pairs. All of those can value/protection bet this turn for a small size and most won’t fold to a bet. The few unpaired hands in my range love having the opportunity to bluff, and even for small sizing, it’s not that easy for Villain to peel here with, say, an underpair to the board. We should not expect him to bluff this card often. Sometimes he’ll value bet worse on the turn and then check back river, which isn’t great for us, and if he bets twice, Hero’s hand is just a bluff-catcher, albeit a profitable one. Forcing him to fold or put money into the pot on this turn card is good for Hero.

As for sizing, my range is quite strong, so as I said, even at this size underpairs or hands like the one he has have a tough decision. Bare flush draws aren’t going to be a big part of his range, and even when they are, it’s not trivial to peel with them, as he’s rarely drawing to nine clean outs.

DP7: I think this is the sort of hand that should be close to indifferent against my bet. The problem is that he’s drawing slim or dead against my value range and my bluffing range has outs. Betting larger would only help make his decisions easy with hands like this.

DP8: This is a tough card to value bet, given how strong my range is and the fact that I block second-best flush draws. There’s more of a case for betting Qs 8s, though even then check-calling could be best. Better to let my blockers work for me, by playing my hand as a bluff-catcher, rather than against me, by playing it as a thin value bet.

Dp9: This may be the result of an Ed Miller pyramid error. In other words, if Villain peels too wide on the turn, then he simply has too many weak hands in his range on the river. Yes, this is the bottom of his range and he’ll rarely win by checking, but if his bottom is too wide, then trying to bluff with all of it will make my bluff-catches very profitable.

DP10: Trivial.

Thanks for playing!

It’s called Rate Our Play. I’m going to post a hand featuring multiple decisions points for both myself and my opponent(s). Your job will be to comment on any mistakes (or choices that surprised you in a good way) that you think either of us made. I’ll participate in the comments as I can and return later in the week to post my own thoughts about the most controversial points.

The Game: $10/$25 NLHE at Maryland Live, fresh game. Villain has $2500, I cover.

Reads/History: Villain and I played together for an hour or so the previous night, with him on my immediate left. He made a nuisance of himself, repeatedly 3- and 4-betting me and raising my c-bets. He was playing less than $2500 that night; nevertheless, he did seem to be a serious, probably professional, player. I gave up without a fight in something like five such spots and never really played back at him, so although I doubt he thinks I’m a fish, that history may color his view of me.

Decision Point 1: Villain opens to $75 with Tc 7c on the Button.

DP 2: Hero calls Qs Ts in BB.

Flop: ($160 in pot) As Ad Js.

DP3: Hero checks.

DP4: Villain bets $125.

DP5: Hero calls.

Turn: ($410 in pot) 7s.

DP 6: Hero bets $125.

DP 7: Villain calls.

River: ($660 in pot) 4s.

DP 8: Hero checks.

DP 9: Villain bets $525.

DP 10: Hero calls.

Leave a comment about any decision point(s) you find surprising or mistaken, and I’ll share my thoughts later in the week. Feedback on this format for a post is also encouraged!

I’m currently in Maryland visiting family and have been to Maryland Live a few times. It’s been quite busy; even when I arrived around 4 yesterday there was already a long list for 5/10 and 10/25 and no open tables to start a new game. So, I ended up playing 2/5 for a while.

Maryland Live’s poker room has two stories, and I was in a 2/5 game upstairs, which is annoying because when they call you for another game you have to go downstairs to lock up a seat (or try to get a floor’s attention upstairs, but that’s hard to do). This will become relevant in a moment.

There’s also a bit of history that’s relevant to the hand in question. Just a few hands prior, Players A and B had limped and called a raise from me. We all checked an Axx flop. On a turn Q, Player A bet, B called, and I folded. The river went bet-call again, Player A had A8o, and Player B flashed a Q.

The Hand

Player A ($600) is in the BB. UTG1 ($350) limps, Player B ($950) limps in MP, and I ($1200) make it $25 with Kh Ts on the CO. The BB (Player A), and both limpers call.

Flop (~$100) Ac Qh 6h. Everyone checks.

Turn 9c. Player A bets $60, and the other two call. I raise to $260. I am way less capped than anyone else here, as I can plausibly represent sets and AQ, and judging from prior history these guys are capable of showing up with a ton of weak hands after this action. The biggest risk IMO is that UTG1 has an Ace and just goes with it, as I’ve bet basically his entire stack, but his turn call didn’t seem too confident.

Only Player B calls, leaving about a pot-sized bet in the stacks. Although I was (obviously) bluffing when I raised the turn, I now think there’s a good chance I’m ahead and he’s on some sort of draw. Still, I’ll probably jam a lot of rivers if checked to, just to be safe.

River (~$740) 2h. Villain thinks for a while, moving a lot while he does so. He changes posture a few times, leans his head on his hand, etc. Then he bets $375, a bit over half his stack.

As soon as I saw the river, my first thought was that I should call a shove. The Kh is a very significant blocker to his value range, and I’d expect him to have either a flush or a busted draw if he shoves. I suppose there’s an outside chance I get owned by Kc Jc or a pair with a club draw, but even with that risk it seems like a profitable call.

However, I also have a habit of stationing too much, especially against smaller stakes players who tend to be really risk averse in big pots and to bluff at less-than-optimal frequencies. His body language seemed confident, as generally people who are bluffing will try to avoid looking uncertain or drawing attention to themselves.

Results

As I was pondering this, I heard them announce “ABC for 5/10, second call.” I must have missed the first call, which is another annoying thing about playing upstairs: it’s a bit harder to hear announcements. That frazzled me a bit, as I didn’t want to take up too much time and miss my spot in the 5/10, so I just folded. Villain proudly tabled 8c 3c, and I just barely had time to tell him “Nice hand” as I rushed downstairs to lock up my seat.

It’s not actually a big deal, but man, that would have been such a fun hero call to make. At least I got some “blog equity” out of it anyway.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello & welcome
8:38 – strategy
26:37 – aaron brown interview

Strategy

This hand is from a $365 wsop circuit event. Re-entry. Level 2 blinds are 50/100. Starting stack was 10k and I have almost exactly that amount. Villian in the hand seems to be a competent player/circuit
grinder type probably early 30s.

Preflop: I get 9c9s in MP i open for 250, 1 call behind me, V calls on the button, and sb and bb both call.

Flop (1250): 8c3d2c.

sb and bb both check to me and I bet 1000. 1 guy folds behind me, and V makes it 2300, sb and bb fold so it’s back to me. I ended up putting in a reraise to 5300 and he snap shoved.

In the meantime, my latest poker strategy article, “They’re More Afraid of You,” is now appearing in 2+2 Magazine. It’s about using fear to your advantage in poker, but with a particular focus on the WSOP Tag Team event that Nate and I played:

no player wants to be the one to lose all of the team’s chips, especially not in a “boneheaded” way. I mean, if you get Aces cracked, your teammates will understand, but if you call off all of your chips hoping to catch a bluff and get shown a set, how do you explain that to the rest of the team?

Enjoy!

The other fun thing about my starting table was that Ian Simpson was there. If you don’t know Ian, you will soon. We’ve already recorded an interview with him and will publish it perhaps as early as this coming Monday, if it doesn’t get pre-empted by WSOP content (will depend on how much time we find to record in the next few days).

Nate and I had high hopes of getting dinner with Ian and Ryan Hall, but it turned out that the break was only 30 minutes, which caused Ryan to drop out, and Ian had already busted and left, so it was just Nate and me. And in fact, if Nate hadn’t busted shortly before dinner break and volunteered to get a table and place an order in advance, we wouldn’t even have managed that. I really don’t understand the point of a 30 minute dinner break.

Overall I think I played perhaps the best tournament poker I have yet in this event. I got moved away from my awesome starting table and spent the rest of the day tangling (or trying not to tangle) with some tough young Europeans. Unfortunately I just kept losing pre-flop all ins after chipping up.

There was one other hand I was proud of. At 400/800/100, I opened to 2000 with Jc 9c in the CO, and the BB, one of aforementioned Europeans, re-raised to 6000. There are some people who will be quite strong when they three-bet from the big blind, preferring to call most hands that they might use as “light” three-bets, and although I did expect this player to be polarized, I would expect him to have a more good/balanced three-betting strategy even from the big blind. So, I called with about 31K behind.

The flop came Qc 9hs 8c, and he bet 6K. I think a lot of people will just jam here because they know they have a lot of equity and they aren’t comfortable playing future streets. With a slightly weaker hand, say Kc Tc, I think shoving is correct – you’d rather get all in on the flop, ideally with some fold equity, than call and get forced off your equity on a blank turn.

However, I think my hand is strong enough to get all in no matter the turn card, and I don’t think Villain will fold many hands with substantial equity. It’s important to consider all of your options rather than just defaulting to a shove any time you have enough equity to get all in, and here I think there’s more value in calling than shoving.

The turn was a Q, and we both checked. The river was the 3s, we both checked again, and he showed Aces to win the pot. To be clear, although this was a nice side benefit of just calling the flop, avoiding a stack off to overpairs on a few specific runouts is really not the main reason to call the flop. I’m going to be stacking off on most turns, this was just the rare card that neither of us particularly wanted to bet, and that happened to work to my advantage.

I had a weirder spot with the most obviously recreational player at the table, an older woman who was quite friendly and whom I’m sure I’ve seen around before and perhaps even played with. She opened from middle position to 1700 (BB was still 800), and I called with 52s in my BB.

The flop came 877r, and we both checked.

The turn was a 2, I bet 3000, and she called.

The river was a 3, and I was a bit unsure how to proceed. I expected to have the best hand quite often, as I think she’d bet pairs on the flop almost always. Was she really going to call me down twice with Ace-high though? On this board, it seemed plausible. I’ve actually coached a few people who are roughly in her demographic and quite aware of their image and accustomed to people who look like me firing spewy bluffs at people who look like them. So, I bet 6000, and she called with K7s for trips, which it actually surprised me a bit that she would have that based on her pre-flop position (not that she couldn’t have other 7x) and doesn’t really tell me anything one way or the other about the river bet.

A few orbits later, with the BB at 1000, she opened my big blind again, to 2200. This time, I held 22. I decided to jam for my last 18K, based on the fact that she’d showed down the K7s and also A6o from a similar position. I also thought that she might fold a bit too much, perhaps something as strong as AJo. Frankly, though, this is probably a little spewy, and if we’re being honest, I caught a whiff of strength when she looked at her cards.

Sure enough, she called with 88 to bust me. The only consolation was that even if I had called with the 22, I would have flopped a set and lost to a turned 8, so in this case the mistake didn’t actually cost me anything, but it was a mistake nonetheless.

Nate and I are going to play the Team Event at the WSOP today, which should be fun.

This episode is sponsored by Shark Clock and Tournament Poker Edge.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
6:11 – strategy
50:40 – alex sutherland

Strategy

This week’s strategy discussion uses GTO Range Builder to investigate the hand first discussed in Episode 176.

Timestamps

0:30 hello and welcome
5:45 strategy
46:24 christian

Strategy

$5/10 at Bellagio

Pre-flop:
UTG+1 raised to $15 (sic). I was hijack $800 stack holding AcQs. I called. Cutoff $2500 stack called. Button $1500 stack called. Small blind folded. Big blind $7000 stack called.

4 callers $75 pot

Flop:
AsKsQx
Checked to me, I bet $50. Villain called. Big blind called. Original raiser folded.

$225 pot

Turn: 7x
big blind checked, I bet $150, villain called and big blind folded.

$525 pot

River Tx:
I checked. Villain shoved.

Timestamps

0:30 hello and welcome
11:30 strategy

Strategy

Hand 1

2/5 game at the Aria. I have a stack of about 1400. Villain covers.

Villain raises from UTG+1 to 20, gets two callers. I have pocket aces in the BB. I raise to 85. Villain calls, callers fold.

Pot is now about $205. Flop 345 rainbow. Both players check.

Turn 2. I check, Villain bets $150, I call.

Pot is $505. River Q. I check, Villain bets $330.

Hand 2

$2/$5 live game. Villain has $500, Hero coves. Hero raises to $25 with AQss. Tilted guy re raises to $100. Hero calls.

Flop is Q74 two diamonds.  There is $200 in the pot and he leads out for a pot sized $200 bet. Hero calls.

Turn is 7h. Villain shoves $200, Hero calls.

Contrary to the fancy image seen here, The Thinking Poker Diaries Volume 8 is actually available only as an e-book. It’s on sale now in the Kindle Store, and EPUB, Kindle, and PDF versions will be available on Nitcast.com shortly.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello & welcome
10:59 – strat
32:05 – andrew moreno

Strategy

MP limps, the button makes it $5, and I raise to $16.5. MP calls and the button folds.

Flop is A79 with the 7 and 9 of spades. I bet $22 and he calls. The pot is $82, and he has $80 behind.

The turn is a blank (low non-spade) and I shove.

[T]here are other decisions in poker besides call-or-fold. When you check, you put your opponent to a bet-or-check decision. In other words, after you check, your opponent does not (or should not given you are doing your job well) know whether or not you plan to fold to a bet. Thus, when he holds a weak hand, he has a decision: should he attempt to bluff, or he should he check behind and take a free card or surrender the pot? Just as with calling or folding, this is a decision that your opponent may get wrong, and if she does, then you stand to profit.

As always, please check it out and let me know what you think!

You can read and see more of Kristy on Twitter, her website, her YouTube channel, or her Under Armour Facebook page.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello & welcome
17:28 – strategy
39:22 – kristy arnett

Strategy

This is from a NLHE home cash game. The blinds are $0.50/$1.00. I have about $500 and would guess Villain had just slightly less.

The hand starts 10-handed and villain opens from under the gun to $4. I am next to act, and look down to see 7-7 and just call.

A few others players call so we’re 5 to the flop of JJ7 rainbow. Villain leads out and bets $15. I call, everyone else folds, so it’s just the two of us to the turn and we have a pot of approximately $51.

The turn is a J. Villain now bets $30. I call, so now we have $111 in the pot and effective stacks of ~$350 each.

The river was a 7. Villain bets $50.

If you haven’t yet read Volume One, well, there’s no reason you’d have to to make sense of this book, but why haven’t you?!

Edit: How did I forget to link Matt’s excellent blog? He writes a lot about poker and his life at thevoicewithin.me.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello & welcome
6:49 – strategy
25:21 – matt berkey

Strategy

This hand is from a WSOPc Main Event and takes place at the 300/600/75 level. I have a stack of about 55,000 and Anthony Gregg covers me.

In this hand we are in the big blind We are holding the ace of spades 10 of diamonds. Anthony great opens with a raise to 1200 utg1 it folds back around to me and I decided to call.

The flop comes 4104 with two spades. I check, he bets 2000, I call.

The turn is the 6d. He bets 3300 and I call.

The river is the 7 of spades, for a final board of 410467. I bet 5500, and to my surprise he shoves!

Collin is also the author or co-author of three poker books (Heads-Up No-Limit Hold ‘Em, Sit-and-Go Strategy, and The Math of Hold ‘Em) as well as co-author, with his wife Katie Dozier, of The Superuser. He produces instructional videos for CardRunners. You can follow him on Twitter @teammoshman.

We’ve also got a special treat for you in the strategy segment. Brian Koppelman, whom we interviewed on Episode 149, is back to talk strategy, specifically how to play against a deep-stacked maniac.

Enjoy!

Timestamps

0:30 H&W
23:58 – BK
39:22 – CM

I’ll start by saying that although there are some interesting concepts at play here, this specific spot is not really an important one to get right. For one thing, it’s not exactly an everyday occurrence. Perhaps more importantly, everyone seems to be in agreement that Villain is unlikely to put another dollar in the pot no matter what Hero does, so we can expect the Expected Values of all available options to be quite similar.

Value Betting

There’s some game theory here related to whether Villain has any incentive to call the river with a bluff-catcher, whether Hero should be able to value bet an unimproved bluff catcher, whether Villain should ever check quads, etc. But there’s an important exploitive concept at play as well, which James Antill raises quite succiently: “Villain can’t make a calling mistake if we don’t bet.”

In theory there shouldn’t be much value in betting. Villain took a very polarizing line, and any showdown value he had would have been better played as a bluff-catcher than as such a big bluff. So really, he should either have a boat or better, or a hand that couldn’t even consider calling.

Of course, there also shouldn’t be much risk in betting. I’m embarrassed to say the very important question of whether I blocked 64s did not occur to me at the table. I don’t know for certain that the river was the 4d – I made up the suit for this post, wrongly thinking it unimportant. Of course, I did consider that Villain had no real reason to check a big boat or quads on the river. After all, we’re seriously considering not betting a hand that would almost certainly call a shove! Checking could induce a bluff, but what hand that benefits from bluffing could Hero take to the river?

Patrick raises the very good point that, “As played, it’s kind of a weird SPR by the river that makes getting stacks in hard to do without either an over bet or a raise, which…I’m not sure, but I would say it leans away from V having a stack able value hand like 33.” However, even seemingly good opponents make mistakes, and we want to give them the opportunity to do so. Both checking quads and calling the river without a 6 are probably mistakes, but the latter is a much easier mistake to make.

I don’t agree with James Antill that, “If villain takes this line with worse and is going to hero call it then he’s as likely to do it with 1.5x as 0.25x pot.” Our best hope is to offer Villain such good pot odds that he can’t resist calling (or spazzes out and shoves) with a hand that he wasn’t originally thinking of as a bluff-catcher. He certainly ought to be price-sensitive, given how easily Hero can have a 6 and how difficult it is to find a bluffing candidate.

Bluff Shoving

I also didn’t consider the option of shoving to get Villain off of a chop. I don’t think it’s the best way to play the hand, but it is worth considering, to kudos to those of you who thought of it.

Sean is right that if Villain is equally likely to check any given combo of 6x or 44, and he always folds the 6x, then shoving would be best. However, I think it’s far from certain that Villain will fold a 6 to a shove, even if that would be the correct play.

Checking

The one argument in favor checking that hasn’t yet been made is that we get to see Villain’s likely bluff. It’s very rare that I factor the value of seeing the Villain’s cards into my decision, and I can’t claim that I did so in real time either, but it did prove a bit interesting. And in this case, where there’s so little value in betting anyway, the small value of seeing Villain’s cards might actually outweigh it.

Results

I checked back, and Villain showed As 9s. This certainly raises the question of whether he might have called a $400 bet, but is interesting for other reasons as well. For instance, I don’t think it’s the best candidate for either donking or three-betting the flop. In fact, it probably has enough showdown value to check and call a bet.

We’re playing 10/25 NLHE with effective stacks of about $8K. The main Villain, in the SB, is a capable and experienced player, not 100% sure whether he’s a pro but he’s good enough that I think he could be. I imagine that he has a similar opinion of me. The BB is definitely a pro and strong player.

I’m going to go ahead and skip to the river decision, because I’ve already explained my plan for a three-bet.

Hero opens to $75 with Kd 6d on the button. SB and BB both call.

Flop ($220 in pot) 6h 6c 3s. SB bets $100, BB folds, Hero raises to $300, SB raises to $875, Hero calls.

Turn ($1970 in pot) 3d. SB bets $1050, Hero calls.

River ($4070 in pot) 4s. SB checks, there’s about $6000 in the effective stacks, Hero?

Post your preferred play, along with your reasons, here. I’ll respond as I can in the comments and post the next decision point on Saturday.

Assessing Range Advantage

The only information I gave about the SB was that he’s “capable and experienced” and probably has “a similar opinion of me”. This really isn’t enough to make aggressively exploitive assumptions about what his bet “means” (if he’s doing a good job of balancing, it doesn’t mean any single thing) or how he’ll respond to a 3-bet.

Let’s start instead by examining some structural features of the situation, at the time that we see the flop, before there’s any action. I have to agree with Matt that, “I really don’t see him having a wide calling range from the SB. Playing out of position against tough opponents is not very easy, of course, and calling invites a third (also competent) player into the hand, which leads me to believe that he will be heavy on 3betting and folding from this spot.”

This isn’t an exploitive assumption; he’s out of position and closing the action, so he really is constrained. He can’t just decide to call with a bunch of weak hands because that’s his “style”. If he doesn’t have a disproportionate amount of realizable equity, which will usually be the case, his best play is to fold pre-flop. Many of the hands that do have that kind of equity do better by raising pre-flop. If we act too strongly on these assumptions, then we give him incentive to call more weak or strong hands, but still, we should recognize that he’s dealing with some heavy pre-flop constraints.

Likewise, we can recognize that my range can and should be rather wide, again not as a question of style but because with the button and very deep stacks, there are simply a lot of hands where raising is more profitable than folding. And the BB can have a much wider range than the SB, given that he is closing the action and getting a better price.

I suspect that if we were to compare the overall equity of the SB’s range vs. mine, he would be ahead. Even though I have some very strong hands that’s unlikely to call pre-flop, such as AA or K6s, I also hold a lot of weak hands that he’s unlikely to call pre-flop, such as 74s.

On Donking and Raising

This constrains me a bit: I can’t expect to continuation bet profitably with anywhere near 100% of my range, particularly given that there is also a third player in the pot. So, I will check the flop a significantly non-zero amount of the time, and the SB has many hands like pocket pairs and Ax that are likely best but very vulnerable to free cards. These hands have some interest in donking the flop in order to deny me equity.

However, because his range is, not exactly capped, but weaker at the top end than mine, he’s vulnerable to getting raised by a polarized range. So, his donking range should contain some hands that can profitably continue to a raise, either by calling or three-betting (sometimes for value, sometimes as a bluff).

K6 fares well against those ranges. It figures to be ahead of his calling range (and even ahead of his range for calling down multiple streets), and although it may turn into a bluff catcher if Villain three-bets, it will be a very good bluff-catcher in that it blocks some portion of his value range and has equity against it as well. We may not be rooting for a three-bet, but we shouldn’t be lost about what to do when three-bet, either. I think calling down will yield a profit, even if it’s not the part of the game tree where we’d ideally end up. When we’re holding a 6, though, Villain only has two choices: three-bet rarely, or three-bet a bluff-heavy range. Considering that we’re prepared to call to the river, either is fine.

It’s true that the majority of my continuing range will not benefit from raising, and I’ll respond to his bet far more often by calling than by raising. It’s also true that because my calling range will consist mostly of hands that do not want to play large pots, SB will have some incentive to make large, possibly over-, bets on subsequent streets with a polarized range. This gives me some incentive to just call the flop with very strong hands, which in turn reduces his incentive to employ such a strategy.

These situations usually resolve themselves in a mixed strategy: I should call some hands that are prepared to take a lot of heat, and also raise some such hands. MCG and PokerNoob both do a good job of explaining why K6 is a better candidate for raising than calling.

The Bottom Line

K6 is an extremely strong hand here, so close to the top of Hero’s range that it can happily put in four bets for value and profitably, if begrudgingly, call down five bets as a bluff-catcher. Calling makes it tricky to get that fourth bet in. Sometimes Villain will just check-call down, and we’ll get only three bets (though overbetting might be able to compensate for this). Even if he does bet the turn, as Raffi says, “flatting and potentially raising at a later point makes it really hard to rep a bluff.”

It’s also worth pointing out that, unless Hero’s hand improves, it will not be quite as strong on future streets. Each new card that comes, unless it’s a K or a 6, pushes our hand, as well as our value targets, further from the nuts.

Essentially, this is a hand that benefits from frontloading, and I think raising with it is generally best. You may not be accustomed to thinking about your kicker when you have trips, but when you’re this deep, it matters.

Results and the next decision point are coming in the next post.

This is from a 10/25 NLHE game with effective stacks of about $8K. The main Villain, in the SB, is a capable and experienced player, not 100% sure whether he’s a pro but he’s good enough that I think he could be. I imagine that he has a similar opinion of me. The BB is definitely a pro and strong player.

Hero opens to $75 with Kd 6d on the button. I realize that some of you would fold this pre-flop, and while it’s a bit close, I think it’s a good open in most games and I’m certainly going to err on the side of opening the button more aggressively when we are this deep. SB and BB both call.

Flop 6h 6c 3s. SB bets $100, BB folds, Hero?

Post your preferred play, along with your reasons, here. I’ll respond as I can in the comments and post the next decision point on Wednesday.

But I was wondering why not bet it out on the flop instead? Wouldn’t it achieve a similar result? Also, it can even be considered a blocking bet? I havent actually had any real-life cash poker games, mostly online so does this also make any difference?

A: It’s important to note that this is an old video (uploaded to YouTube in 2009, but perhaps created even earlier than that), and my guess is that this is not something Daniel Negreanu would publish today. I want to get that out front because, frankly, I don’t think what he’s saying makes any sense.

At the very least, it relies on some unfounded assumptions about how an opponent will play.  The bottom line is that if your opponent wants to bet 6000 on the turn, you betting 3000 doesn’t stop him from doing that – he’s allowed to raise. So it doesn’t cause you to “take control of the hand” (a meaningless phrase, in my opinion), it merely helps your opponent correctly fold hands that are worse than yours.

Negreanu unintentionally explains why this isn’t a good play when he says that the bet will only be called by better hands. If you check and call a turn bet, you could be up against either a better hand or a bluff, and although the bluffs aren’t drawing dead against you, they are drawing pretty thin. Overall, calling a bet should be +EV for you (and if you think it isn’t, you can just fold). When you bet, though, you either take down a pot you were probably going to win anyway, if your opponent has nothing, or you put in 3000 drawing to two outs, which is much worse for you than putting in money against a range of better hands and bluffs. Basically, you want those bluffs in your opponents’ range if you’re going to put money in anyway.

Contrary to popular belief, there’s not often anything intrinsically desirable about being the aggressor (or “having the lead” or “initiative”) in no-limit hold ’em. There are certain types of hands that, when played aggressively, can outperform their equity. Extremely strong hands benefit from aggression because although their equity might be 100% of the pot, they can win even more than that if a bet is called. Extremely weak hands benefit because they have little equity but may win the entire pot if the opponent folds.

It does not follow from this that hands in the middle, hands which have good equity against a weak range but poor equity against a strong range, benefit from aggression, and I think that’s the misunderstanding we see here. Taking a marginal hand or bluff-catcher and turning it into a bluff does not cause that hand to outperform its equity. Often, it’s just the opposite.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello and Welcome plus WRGPT strat
21:35 – Carlos

I primarily review his play at the final three tables of a $10 rebuy tournament, all the way down to heads up. If you need help making or triumphing at a final table – and who doesn’t?! – be sure to take advantage of this FREE video. Or better yet, see how you can have me review one of your hand histories!

In the meantime, please enjoy the next PLO8 strategy video from Nate and myself:

Timestamps

:30 – hello & welcome
4:22 – strategy
33:56 – dannyn13

Strategy

Horseshoe Southern Indiana, 1/2NL, 8-handed, $270 effective stacks vs villain, hero has AdKs in MP1
-UTG+2 limps with $600 behind
-hero raises AdKs to $10 in MP1 with $260 behind
-MP2 calls with $180 behind
-villain calls in bb with $300 behind

-$41 in the middle and we see a flop of Kc4h5h
-villain in bb checks, UTG+2 checks, hero bets $30, MP2 folds, villain check/raises to $75, MP1 folds, hero calls

-ignoring rake, there is $191 in the middle and the turn is the 4s
-villain checks and hero checks

-the river is (the beautiful) Kd, villain checks, hero?

The book is available from the Amazon Kindle Store or in EPUB, Kindle, and PDF formats at Nitcast.com.

Timestamps

:30 – hello & welcome
5:06 – strategy: getting paid with quads
34:47 – interview: neil blumenfield

Strategy

$1/$3 NLHE $800 effective stacks

Villain opens to $15 from utg +2.
Hero is next to act holding 5c5h and calls the 15.
The button calls the 15 (stack 300 ish)
The limper calls the 15 (stack 150 ish)

flop ($59) is Kd 9d 5d
limper checks, Villain bets 45, Hero calls, everyone else folds.

turn ($149) is the 4c

Villain bets $55 into the now 149. Hero raises to $150 total and villain calls

River ($450) 5s. Villain checks. Hero?

Blinds are 50/100, Villain has about 20K (starting stack), and I have about 25K. Only six players (including both blinds) have claimed their seats so far. I have black Aces first to act and open to 300.

Villain calls from the SB, and everyone else folds.

Flop (700 in pot) Jc 8c 6h. Villain checks.

Turn (700 in pot) 6d. Villain bets 400. Hero?

River (1500 in pot) 2s. Villain bets 600.

I was a bit surprised by the comments, in that there seemed to be a consensus that a raise for value would be thin/risky and should be small. This surprises me in no small part because a lot of people seemed to be in favor of raising and then betting safe rivers on the previous street. This river is as good as it could be, so I don’t see what’s changed to reduce confidence in Hero’s hand. If anything, Villain’s bet size should only embolden us. In game, I thought it was extremely likely that he had a Jack, and the only question was how much he’d be willing to call.

The best argument I can see for making only a very small raise is that it’s hard for Hero to have bluffs after taking this line. If Villain is really going to fold a Jack to a pot-sized raise, though, that gives Hero plenty of incentive to take hands that were checked for showdown value on the flop, such as nut clubs or 99, and turn them into bluffs. In spots like this, where your previous actions have taken most if not all air out of your range, turning the bottom of your range into a bluff should be “standard”.

That still may not produce a lot of bluff combos, but Hero isn’t going to have a lot of value combos, either. Even Jacks is not a great candidate for a big river raise, as it blocks so many of your value targets.

The other concern was that raising opens Hero up to a raise which, if balanced properly, would reduce his EV to 0. There’s a lot to say about this.

First and most importantly, it isn’t going to happen. Exploitively, it just isn’t a play that’s in the described Villain’s arsenal. I want to emphasize this, because I think it’s very common for people to miss value on the river out of a misguided fear about getting check-raise bluffed or, in this case, three-bet bluffed. I expect a 3-bet here to be extremely rare, and I wouldn’t think twice about folding to one.

Even if Villain were capable of this, it wouldn’t be a reason not to raise. It’s generally correct to have a range that bets/raises for value and folds to a re-raise, as long as it isn’t the entirety of your value range. Villain should still have a calling range against Hero, because three-betting is too expensive to be his only defense against bluffs, and Aces should be ahead of that calling range.

Results

I raised to 3000. Villain called and mucked.

The possibility of a big payoff when the board runs out so nicely is part of what makes checking the flop competitive with betting. The amount of money Villain puts into the pot versus this line should be comparable to the amount he would put in against a bet-bet-bet line, which is the other way I could see myself playing this runout. If it isn’t, then he can be exploited by taking one line with all weak hands and the other with all strong hands.

Bottom line: Villain is quite unlikely to have a hand better than AA. He also has a lot of incentive to pay off a large raise, even if we don’t make exploitive assumptions about him (which would only make me feel better about putting in a big raise).

Blinds are 50/100, Villain has about 20K (starting stack), and I have about 25K. Only six players (including both blinds) have claimed their seats so far. I have black Aces first to act and open to 300.

Villain calls from the SB, and everyone else folds.

Flop (700 in pot) Jc 8c 6h. Villain checks.

Turn (700 in pot) 6d. Villain bets 400. Hero?

I once again suspect that at equilibrium, the Expected Values of raising and calling will be quite similar for all of Hero’s strong hands. This is because these hands have relatively static value versus Villain’s likely betting range. If you have some exploitable read on Villain, you should employ it. In this case, I’d consider his river bluffing tendencies the most important read. Against overly passive opponents, raising now is probably best, and against overly aggressive ones, calling is probably best. Without such a read, though, it can be tough to tease out the best play, because it’s going to be a small difference, with good arguments on each side. Of course that also means that it won’t matter terribly much what you choose, but I nevertheless think that the exercise of finding the best option is both good practice and intrinsically interesting.

Several commenters argued the merits of calling versus raising in a vacuum quite well. It’s striking, though, that none of these arguments is really specific to the exact hand Hero holds. They would apply just as well to any hand Hero wants to play for value. Now, it’s certainly possible that one option might just be strictly better than the other for value, but I think that would imply some exploitability on Villain’s part, and I’d be more comfortable with such a solution if we could pinpoint what precisely it is we’re exploiting and why we feel comfortable with that read.

In cases like these, I find it helpful to imagine that I will call with some strong hands and raise with others. This enables me to rephrase the question, not as “Is calling strictly better than raising?” but rather, “Is there anything about my hand that would make it better than similar hands for calling or raising?”

Consider the arguments in favor of raising. Dave says, “If villain has a semi-bluff, he seems very likely to call a turn raise since hero could be bluffing and his hand could improve.” I agree that against Villain’s draws, raising is probably somewhat better than calling, as it more or less guarantees that we get a second bet into the pot (or fold out a good bit of equity), whereas on the river Villain may or may not bluff when he misses but will certainly put a bet in when he hits. However, the Ac in our hand significantly reduces the likelihood that Villain holds a draw.

Relatedly, Dave worries that “we have to guess at his bluffing frequency on a good number of draw-completing rivers”. That’s not quite true, though. The Ac is a very significant blocker, which means that bluff-catching with that card in your hand will be +EV even against an opponent with an optimal river bluffing frequency. We know the Ac is in our hand, but he doesn’t know that we know that. This means that on club rivers, we have an information advantage that can be exploited. Although these may not be the best river cards in the deck, they are cards on which Hero can in fact expect to put money into the pot with an edge.

Mark points out that, “Hands opponent is betting for value, particularly Jacks may be scared off by a lot of cards, such as possible flushes, straights, or overcards. This makes up a huge portion of the deck.” Here, again, we have significant blockers. Aces are not good cards for getting value from Jx, and the Ac would be especially bad. When we know that the river is less likely than usual to be an Ace, that becomes an argument in favor of calling with this hand and raising some different value hand, such as 7h 6h, which does not block so many scare card rivers.

As Mark points out, hands like 76 are also more desirable for raising than AA “as they block the portion of opponent’s range that are beating both AA and [trips with a bad kicker]”.

If the decision is otherwise close, we can break the tie by considering the relevance of the exact cards we hold. In this case, they argue for a call, which is what I did.

The next decision point is here.

Blinds are 50/100, Villain has about 20K (starting stack), and I have about 25K. Only six players (including both blinds) have claimed their seats so far. I have black Aces first to act and open to 300.

Villain calls from the SB, and everyone else folds.

Flop (700 in pot) Jc 8c 6h. Villain checks.

Turn (700 in pot) 6d. Villain bets 400. Hero?

Post your thoughts and preferred action here. I’ll respond to comments as I’m able and post my own thoughts as well as the next decision point on Friday.

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Timestamps

0:30 – hello & welcome
25:22 – strategy

Strategy

5/10/20 $3500 effective.

HJ opens to $60, Hero calls 66 in CO, Straddle calls.
Flop ($190) 644ss checked around
Turn ($190) 8o Straddle bets $100, HJ folds, I raise to $300, he makes it $1040, I call.
River ($2270) Jo He jams for roughly pot.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello and welcome
15:08 – strategy

Strategy

Hand 1

30/60 Limit Hold ‘Em.

Hero opens K9o from the CO, BB calls.

Flop 884r. Check, bet, raise, call.

Turn 2r. Bet, call.

River J. Bet, call.

Hand 2

Seat 3: NateMeyvis (2336 in chips)
Seat 7: Villain (1416 in chips)
NateMeyvis: posts small blind 5
Villain: posts big blind 10
HOLE CARDS
Dealt to NateMeyvis [Td 8s]
NateMeyvis: raises 15 to 25
Villain: calls 15
FLOP [Kc Qh 5d]
Villain: checks
NateMeyvis: bets 32
Villain: calls 32
TURN [Kc Qh 5d] [Ac]
Villain: checks
NateMeyvis: bets 175
Villain said, “wtf?”
Villain: calls 175
RIVER [Kc Qh 5d Ac] [4d]
Villain: checks
NateMeyvis: checks