Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 80/160 Blinds (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t6916)
MP (t3171)
CO (t7325)
Button (t12320)
SB (t12015)
Hero (BB) (t6713)

Hero’s M: 27.97

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, K
2 folds, CO bets t320, 1 fold, SB calls t240, Hero raises to t900, 1 fold, SB calls t580

Flop: (t2120) J, Q, 5 (2 players)
SB bets t900, Hero calls t900

Turn: (t3920) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t999, SB calls t999

River: (t5918) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t3914 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: t5918

Results:
Hero didn’t show J, K (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t5918

Preflop is definitely good. The CO’s range was like 75%, and I doubt he’s capable of 4-betting light. I don’t know much about SB but it almost doesn’t matter.

Flop I think is close between shove and call. My hand is almost always best, and while I’m in bad shape vs. his calling range, there’s also a lot of value in picking the pot up now given the spades out there. I called only because I thought he’d give me the information I needed on later streets, and he did, though not in the way I’d expected.

I doubt he checks a good spade on the turn, but he may well have turned a weak flush or a better pair than mine. So I throw a little bet out there just to see if he check-shoves. When he doesn’t, I’m pretty confident the pot is mine on the river. For a second, I worried about the board pair, but then I realized that there were really no boats possible for him except for maybe a disastrously played A5.

My opponents in the $200 were no slouches, certainly better than what I’m looking for in a $200 donkament. I was up against people like teacuppoker, ADZ, utreg, and Mattsuspect. Even though I lasted about five hours in the tournament, there really wasn’t much in the way of interesting hands. It was a full ring tournament with some solid competition, so I was mostly just playing good hands and making cheap bluffs when I could. Showing pretty good discipline, considering how I usually play in these things, I guess.

I ended up limp-shoving 98s in the SB for 30BBs against MattSuspect, who (correctly) snap-called with 55. Even though I flopped a gutshot and flush draw to go with my two overs, and turned a double gutter, I couldn’t get there on the river. Tournaments suck.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $150+$12 Tournament, 60/120 Blinds 15 Ante (8 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) (t6871)
UTG (t3790)
UTG+1 (t3670)
MP1 (t7084)
MP2 (t3912)
CO (t4635)
Button (t11283)
SB (t3755)

Hero’s M: 22.90

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, J
2 folds, MP1 bets t300, 4 folds, Hero raises to t900, MP1 calls t600

Flop: (t1980) 7, 9, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks

Turn: (t1980) Q (2 players)
Hero bets t1111, MP1 calls t1111

River: (t4202) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t2845, MP1 calls t2845

Total pot: t9892

Results:
Hero had J, J (one pair, Jacks).
MP1 had K, Q (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: MP1 won t9892

This is another one of those “good in a cash game but too fancy for a tournament” plays that I just can’t help making. It’s worth pointing out that I’d been 3-betting a lot (always with hands, but they never got shown down), and in a high stakes cash game people will steal very aggressively when you check flops like this to them. I’m just giving up so often when I check here. It’s actually probably better to do this with QQ or KK than with JJ, since JJ actually has better equity against Villain’s shoving range if I bet the flop.

The other thing that threw me off was that in the FTOPS, the Second Chance event gave every player a free rebuy that expired if you didn’t use it during the rebuy period. I foolishly assumed Stars would work the same way and was actively trying to get my chips in during the last few minutes of the rebuy period, only to find that I was charged $15 when I did rebuy. Thankfully that was just on the smaller table, though I did end up rebuying on the $150 as well.

All in all, though, it was a good session. I made solid money on the cash games while wasting very little time or money on the tournaments.

The 5-card draw Event 3 would have been fun, but today was laundry day.

The 2+2 MTT community is mostly salivating over this, though some are a little concerned that the smaller events will actually discourage people from trying satellite into the bigger events. I don’t think they’re wrong, but I still expect the big events to be plenty soft thanks to tourney donks playing with relatively deep stacks for fairly big money.

The only issue for me is how to get enough money on Stars by April to enable me to play the ones I want without busting the bankroll. I may suck it up and make a wire transfer, which I’ve so far refused to do on principle since Stars makes the depositor pay the wire fees. It’s really preposterous- I pay enough rake in 10 minutes to cover the fees, and it’s clearly in their interest for me to have money on their site.

Anyway, the schedule:

Event 1 – 2 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – NL Hold’em with Rebuys [6-max]

Really looking forward to this one, will probably play the medium and the large.

• 01-L: $5.50 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 01-M: $55 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 01-H: $530 buy-in, $500,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 2 – 2 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – PL Omaha Hi/Lo

I like PLO8 and will probably play the medium, maybe the large depending on what the field looks like. I’d probably even be willing to play the large if I thought I was slightly -EV.

• 02-L: $11 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 02-M: $109 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 02-H: $1,050 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 3 – 3 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – PL 5-Card Draw

I might play the small or medium for fun, but definitely won’t be playing the large.

• 03-L: $11 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 03-M: $109 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 03-H: $1,050 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 4 – 3 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – NL Hold’em [2X Chance, turbo]

It’s hard to turn down the great value that all of these NLHE tourneys represent, but I really hate turbos. In these, the tourney donks might actually have the edge on me.

• 04-L: $16.50 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 04-M: $162 buy-in, $300,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 04-H: $1,575 buy-in, $1,000,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 5 – 4 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – NL Hold’em Shootout [10-max]

The large will probably be worth playing.

• 05-L: $16.50 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 05-M: $162 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 05-H: $1,575 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 6 – 4 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – PL Omaha [1R1A, 6-max]

I might play the medium, but lately I’ve no interest in PLO.

• 06-L: $22 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 06-M: $215 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 06-H: $2,100 buy-in, $400,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 7 – 5 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – H.O.R.S.E.

Recently I’ve concluded that I may not be as good at HORSE as I thought, and/or everyone else is getting better. If I play, it will probably just be the low.

• 07-L: $109 buy-in, $250,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 07-M: $1,050 buy-in, $500,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 07-H: $10,300 buy-in, $750,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 8 – 5 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – NL Hold’em [2-day]

Juicy! The medium will be fine, but it’s probably not a good idea to burn so much time on a $300 tournament. I really want to play the large though.

• 08-L: $33 buy-in, $250,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 08-M: $320 buy-in, $1,500,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 08-H: $3,150 buy-in, $3,000,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 9 – 6 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – FL Triple Draw 2-7

If I play, it would only be the low for fun. Whenever I play this game, I always end up screwing up and getting excited about an Ace or a straight.

• 09-L: $22 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 09-M: $215 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 09-H: $2,100 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 10 – 6 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – NL Hold’em [Heads-Up Match Play]

Nice opportunity for heads up, will probably play medium and large.

• 10-L: $16.50 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 10-M: $162 buy-in, $300,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 10-H: $1,575 buy-in, $500,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 11 – 7 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – Mixed Hold’em [6-max]

Meh. I really hate and suck at FLHE. I’ll probably sit this one out.

• 11-L: $33 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 11-M: $320 buy-in, $300,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 11-H: $3,150 buy-in, $800,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 12 – 7 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – 7-Card Stud Hi/Lo

I like this game, but I’m probably not good enought for the large. I’ll likely play the medium though.

• 12-L: $22 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 12-M: $215 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 12-H: $2,100 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 13 – 8 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – FL Razz

Same as above, only Razz is more frustrating. Maybe the medium, not the large.

• 13-L: $22 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 13-M: $215 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 13-H: $2,100 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 14 – 8 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – NL Hold’em [6-max]

Tight! Medium and large are both high priorities, and I might even play the low.

• 14-L: $55 buy-in, $250,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 14-M: $530 buy-in, $500,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 14-H: $5,200 buy-in, $1,250,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 15 – 9 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – 8-Game

I’m probably too bad at too many of these games to warrant playing even the medium.

• 15-L: $44 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 15-M: $425 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 15-H: $4,175 buy-in, $250,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 16 – 9 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – 7-Card Stud

I don’t really like and suck at 7-stud, so I won’t be playing these.

• 16-L: $33 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 16-M: $320 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 16-H: $3,150 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 17 – 10 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – NL Hold’em [1R1A]

I’ll play the medium, and I’d like to play the high, but it’ll stretch the bankroll. We’ll see.

Event 18 – 10 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – PL Omaha

Meh, probably skip all of these.

• 18-L: $55 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 18-M: $530 buy-in, $300,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 18-H: $5,200 buy-in, $1,000,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 19 – 11 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – FL Omaha Hi/Lo

I’m not much on this game, will probably skip it.

• 19-L: $55 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 19-M: $530 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 19-H: $5,200 buy-in, $400,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 20 – 11 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – FL Hold’em [6-max]

Definitely not playing these.

• 20-L: $55 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 20-M: $530 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 20-H: $5,200 buy-in, $400,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 21 – 12 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – NL Hold’em [Heads-Up Match Play]

I’ll play the medium and maybe the low but definitely not the high.

• 21-L: $270 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 21-M: $2,600 buy-in, $300,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 21-H: $25,500 buy-in, $800,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 22 – 12 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – NL Hold’em Main Event [2-day]

I’ll play the medium for sure. I’d really like to play the high, but I don’t know if it’s going to be practical.

• 22-L: $109 buy-in, $1,000,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 22-M: $1,050 buy-in, $3,000,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 22-H: $10,300 buy-in, $5,000,000 guaranteed prize pool

The X-factor was Poker Stars pro William Thorson, who’s been a long-time cash player on that site. I’ve never seen him sitting in the bigger NLHE games, so I wasn’t sure what to make of or expect from him. He was definitely too loose and aggressive at times, but overall he was pretty decent, especially when we were deep. In particular, he was doing a good job of betting big, as is often called for in deep stack poker. He won a huge pot againt the table fish because he overbet the pot all the way with a flopped set.

But he was only and always betting big when he had big hands, which made him a little too easy to read sometimes. For example, he once made a small 3-bet out of the SB against my CO raise. Even though we weren’t all that deep, he had priced me in to call with 98o, since I was pretty sure he didn’t have a big pair. Then he bet out small on a QJx flop, and I decided to float him. Sure enough, he check-folded to a small turn bet.

My next float didn’t work out so well. We were down to the last 25% or so of the field, and I was rolling along in pretty good shape. There was another of those tournament specialists on my right, and he was opening a lot of pots. Effective stacks were good for me to 3-bet him occasionally, which I’d been doing. So at 200/400, he opened to 1100, and I made it 3000 with A9s on the button. He called for something like 8% of the effective stacks. Giving him too much credit, I assumed he would pretty much only do this with a decent pair: maybe a slow-played AA/KK, or maybe something lik 88, but I didn’t think he’d call out of positon with a suited connector or Ax.

The flop came QQ5, and we both checked. Remember, I was putting him on a pair, which I didn’t think he would fold. The turn was a King and put a diamond draw on the board. He bet out something weird like a third of the pot. I called, putting him squarely on a pair lower than Kings that he would have to check-fold on the river. The river was a third diamond, and he requested time before finally betting one-half the pot, or about 25% of the remaining stacks. Still stuck in this mindset of moving him off a pair, I shoved all in, and he called pretty quickly with Ad 4d for the nut flush.

I’m not a fan of his pre-flop call, but I really hate myself for shoving that river. I didn’t do enough to re-evaluate his range when he bet out there. I seriously doubt he’s doing that with something like 88, and he’s probably calling pretty much always. Thankfully I was having a pretty huge cash session, so I was still well up on the day, despite another failed bluff shove that occurred almost simultaneously at a Stars 5/10 full-ring table:

UTG+1 raised to $40, and I called in early middle position with Ac Kc. The flop came 844 with two clubs, and I called his bet. He bet again on a 5 turn, and I shoved in my stack drawing dead to his 88. I actually like this shove though, because usually he has a pair when he bets again here and even with AA he can’t be thrilled when I shove into him, and of course if he does decide to call with a smaller pair I’ll have 15 outs. So I don’t hate this shove, even though it didn’t work out here.

Eventually I picked up Aces in a great spot and won a huge pot with a coin flip:

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Tournament
Blinds: t50/t100
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t4940
UTG+1: t10930
MP1: t11523
Hero: t7430
CO: t840
Button: t8674
SB: t29202
BB: t32230

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP2 with :ks :6s :ah :ac
2 folds, MP1 raises to t350, Hero calls t350 (pot was t500), 2 folds, SB calls t300 (pot was t850), BB raises to t1750, MP1 calls t1400 (pot was t2800), Hero raises to t7350, SB folds, BB raises to t12950, MP1 folds, Hero calls all-in t80.
Uncalled bets: t5520 returned to BB.

Flop: :5s :js :tc (t16960, 1 player + 1 all-in – Main pot: t16960)

Turn: :2c (t16960, 1 player + 1 all-in – Main pot: t16960)

River: :as (t16960, 1 player + 1 all-in – Main pot: t16960)

Results:
Final pot: t16960

Aces in PLO aren’t nearly the monster they are in NLHE, so with not much else to the hand, I elected just to call with them initially. I ended up getting it in with QJT9 and holding.

I’m no PLO expert, but from what I could tell, a lot of people were playing really badly. I may even have made some questionable folds because I gave people too much credit when they potted it:

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Tournament
Blinds: t150/t300
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t32987
Hero: t22900
MP1: t33260
MP2: t4865
MP3: t23062
CO: t31400
Button: t43209
SB: t31598
BB: t1730

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG+1 with :as :ad :9s :8d
UTG calls t300 (pot was t450), Hero raises to t1350, 2 folds, MP3 calls t1350 (pot was t2100), CO calls t1350 (pot was t3450), 3 folds, UTG calls t1050 (pot was t4800).

Flop: :5h :9d :5d (t5850, 4 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets t5850, 2 folds, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: t5850 returned to MP3.

Results:
Final pot: t5850

Here I check-folded Aces and the nut flush draw because I just couldn’t see this guy having less than trips, and I didn’t want to invest 4x the pot in such a spot.

Eventually I caught one of these guys overvaluing his hand:

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Tournament
Blinds: t150/t300
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t30862
UTG+1: t30050
MP1: t43209
MP2: t30998
MP3: t1280
CO: t31037
Hero: t20050
SB: t32660
BB: t4865

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with :kd :js :6s :th
UTG calls t300 (pot was t450), UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls t300 (pot was t750), 2 folds, CO calls t300 (pot was t1050), Hero calls t300 (pot was t1350), SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: :jh :4c :ks (t1650, 5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, CO bets t1250, Hero calls t1250 (pot was t2900), 3 folds.

Turn: :5s (t4150, 2 players)
CO bets t3600, Hero calls t3600 (pot was t7750).

River: :kc (t11350, 2 players)
CO bets t4200, Hero raises all-in t14900, CO calls t10700 (pot was t30450).

Results:
Final pot: t41150

He had AKT4, for K’s full of 4’s. The turn should probably a check-fold for him. Potting it again is really bad with top and bottom pair, and if I hadn’t seen so many people making mistakes like this, I might have been tempted to fold top two. But I decided to call again and river the nuts instead.

This was a fun one where I turned an overpair into a bluff since I held two blockers to the nuts:

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Tournament
Blinds: t150/t300
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t4415
UTG+1: t30962
MP1: t32240
MP2: t38329
MP3: t27768
CO: t10130
Button: t18737
Hero: t37200
BB: t35360

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with :kh :jc :jh :ac
3 folds, MP2 raises to t900, MP3 folds, CO calls t900 (pot was t1350), Button folds, Hero calls t750 (pot was t2250), BB folds.

Flop: :9h :4h :5c (t3000, 3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets t1500, CO folds, Hero calls t1500 (pot was t4500).

Turn: :8h (t6000, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks.

River: :qs (t6000, 2 players)
Hero bets t4300, MP2 folds.
Uncalled bets: t4300 returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: t6000

For the majority of the tournament, Andy McLeod, the eventual winner, was on my immediate left. From what I could tell, he wasn’t a great PLO player, but he is a great tournament player in general and very loose and aggressive, which was rough to have on my left. I actually ran really well against him and probably didn’t win as much as a better player could have nor as much as I could have from a less good player. I ended up doubling through Andy at a really crucial moment when we both held KKxx and flopped an overpair. I had a flush draw with mine, he had an open-ended straight draw with his, and my draw hit.

The last laugh was his, though, as he recovered by twice doubling through the Aces of LoneHixx (who was on his immediate left) with random garbage and ended up winning nearly $100,000 for first place.

With 117 left out of more than 1200 who started, I was in 25th place and feeling fine. Then it happened:

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Tournament
Blinds: t600/t1200
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t58291
UTG+1: t68740
MP1: t58836
MP2: t141471
CO: t49815
Hero: t84555
SB: t71922
BB: t100490

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is Button with :8c :9d :jc :js
3 folds, MP2 raises to t4200, CO calls t4200 (pot was t6000), Hero calls t4200 (pot was t10200), 2 folds.

Flop: :ks :jd :5h (t14400, 3 players)
MP2 bets t14400, CO folds, Hero raises to t57600, MP2 raises to t100800, Hero calls all-in t22755.
Uncalled bets: t20445 returned to MP2.

Turn: :5s (t175110, 1 player + 1 all-in – Main pot: t175110)

River: :6h (t175110, 1 player + 1 all-in – Main pot: t175110)

Results:
Final pot: t175110

I was up against KKxx, so I busted with middle set versus top set. In NLHE, that’s an absolute cooler. But I wonder whether a better PLO player would have lost his ass here. Truthfully, when the guy bet out into two people, I was already pretty worried about top set. But I just couldn’t see anything but getting it in and then getting it pissed.

The tournament itself was pretty uneventful, too, even though it down to the top 5% or so. Pretty much every key hand was decided pre-flop. There was one early on where I raised KJs UTG for nearly 10% of my stack. The CO called and so did the BB.

The flop was like Ac 9d 7c or something. I bet, and the CO min-raised. Given how much of stack went in pre-flop, I thought he would have re-raised with a good Ace. Plus I had a flush draw, so I shoved on him. He called me with A9s for top two pair, but I drilled the flush on the river to double up.

After that I got away with a lot of blind stealing, especially around the bubble. Even after we were in the money, there were some guys playing ridiculously tight.

Eventually my luck couldn’t hold. Everyone was pretty shallow, and my AKs lost to AQ. After 5 hours, I got twice my money back. Thankfully I was doing pretty well in cash games at the same time, so I was still up pretty substantially on the day. Here’s a nice little series of hands from that match:

Poker Stars, $10/$20 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

SB: $2,156
Hero (BB): $4,281
UTG: $4,287
MP: $4,625.50
CO: $2,186
BTN: $1,436

Pre-Flop: 7 6 dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $20, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($50) 8 5 9 (2 Players)
Hero bets $60, UTG calls $60

Turn: ($170) 4 (2 Players)
Hero bets $200, UTG calls $200

River: ($570) 6 (2 Players)
Hero bets $750, UTG calls $750

Results: $2,070 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed 7 6 (a straight, Five to Nine) and WON $2,067 (+$1,037 NET)
UTG mucked 6 A and LOST (-$1,030 NET)

Note that I overbet every street with the flopped nuts. And he called down with a gutshot that rivered a weak pair. Naturally I was salivating to flop a set against him:

Poker Stars, $10/$20 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

SB: $2,173
Hero (BB): $5,385
UTG: $3,591
MP: $4,365.50
CO: $2,116
BTN: $1,990

Pre-Flop: 2 2 dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $20, MP calls $20, 2 folds, SB calls $10, Hero checks

Flop: ($80) 4 K 2 (4 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $80, UTG calls $80, MP folds, SB calls $80

Turn: ($320) A (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $285, UTG raises to $800, SB folds, Hero raises to $5,285 and is All-In, UTG calls $2,691 and is All-In

River: ($7,302) Q (2 Players – 1 is All-In)

Results: $7,302 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed 2 2 (three of a kind, Deuces) and WON $7,299 (+$3,708 NET)
UTG mucked 4 A and LOST (-$3,591 NET)

I was afraid overbetting again might be a give-away, since he was probably feeling dumb from before. At this point I was praying he would reload, which he did. Sadly, that proved to be bad for me:

Poker Stars, $10/$20 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

UTG: $2,013
Hero (MP): $9,083
CO: $2,000
BTN: $3,763.50
SB: $2,056
BB: $2,708

Pre-Flop: A A dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $88, CO calls $68, 3 folds

Flop: ($166) T Q 8 (2 Players)
Hero bets $180, CO raises to $360, Hero raises to $8,995, CO calls $1,542

Turn: ($3,970) 6 (2 Players)

River: ($3,970) 9 (2 Players)

Results: $3,970 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed A A (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-$1,970 NET)
CO showed J A (a straight, Eight to Queen) and WON $4,017 (+$2,047 NET)

I wasn’t thrilled to see him min-raise this flop, but obviously I am not folding AA to this clown. Oh well, can’t win them all. It was still a sweet day, despite this, a few other beats/coolers, and the close-but-so-far finish in the 100r.

There are two seminal books that address the value of tournament chips: David Sklansky’s Tournament Poker for Advanced Players and Mason Malmuth’s Gambling Theory and Other Topics. I haven’t read Malmuth’s book, but my understanding is that both make a similar argument that this value is non-linear. Another words, your last chip is worth more than your second to last chip is worth more than your third to last chip etc. Each chip you add to your stack increases the value of your stack, but by less than the preceeding chip did. So if you have on chip worth x, and you double up, your stack is worth marginally less than 2x. And if you double again, your stack will not be worth 4x. This is because survival has value in a tournament where all of the prize pool is not paid to the winner.

The countervailing principle is that chips are worth more in the hands of a skilled player than an unskilled player. This is because better players will have the opportunity to use those chips to win more chips. They contain within them the player’s expected value for the tournament. In FTOPS Event 4, the first 2000 chips, which cost $300, were probably worth $750 or so to the best player in the field. Conversely, they were probably worth about $50 to the worst player.

You can see that at this rate, it is clearly correct for the best players to rebuy immediately in a tournament that allows unlimited rebuys. Even though his second $300 buys him less than his first expenditure, it still buys him more than $300 worth of value. Conversely, it is incorrect for the worst players to rebuy. In fact, it is incorrect for them to play at all.

When only a single rebuy is permitted, this could at least theoretically change. If a skilled player uses his rebuy immediately to double his starting stack, he risks losing all 4000 of his chips at once. Although his rebuy was a good investment, he missed out on the opportunity to make an even better investment in a second tournament life. Remember, going from 0 to 2000 is worth more than going from 2000 to 4000. By opting for the latter, the player cost himself the chance to do the former a second time.

However, this must be balanced against the risk of immediately getting over 2000 chips, remaining there for the entire rebuy period, and thus losing the opportunity, to invest that second $300 at all.

The one other thing I haven’t mentioned yet is that it matters how many chips the other players at your table have and how good they are. A player cannot realize the extra value that his skill imparts to his 4000 chip stack if no one else at the table has more than 2000. If several bad players to his right all rebought immediately, then the good player should do so as well, so that he will have the opportunity to invest his additional 2000 chips well against those weak players. If several very good players to his immediate left rebought to 4000, the same player might be better off saving his rebuy as an insurance policy against elimination. Otherwise, he risks playing larger pots out of position against very good players- a scenario where those additional chips would not be invested well. If the first hour is drawing to a close and his stack is below 2000, he can always take his second rebuy then.

Unlike an unlimited rebuy tournament, where it generally makes sense to push any edge during the rebuy period since survival is never at risk, this structure makes survival during the first hour particularly important. This is because the player will have the opportunity at the end of the first hour to buy chips at a discount. $300 will buy him, not 2000 chips, as with the rebuys, but 2500 chips for an add-on. It is pretty much always profitable for a good player to add-on, and if he is eliminated in the first hour, he won’t have a chance to take this good investment.

I include this exegesis on rebuy tournament theory because I have nothing interesting to say about the tournament itself. No one at my table rebought immediately, so I didn’t either. I lost my first 2000 chips with two pair in a limped pot at the 10/20 level. My opponent seemed like a fish, so I thought he would call me down with worse, but he ended up having a better two pair. Then I rebought, added on, lasted for about an hour more despite missing tons of flops, shoved over a very weak limper with K7s, and got called by one of the blinds who had AK.

I’m not all that good at PLO, but I do want to learn, and I’m sure it will be a weak field, so I’ll probably play today’s 2:00 $500 PLO 6-Max. I’ll be playing the Stars $300 anyway. Then at 4:30 there’s a $100 rebuy FTOPS that I’ll play if I’m not sick of poker by then.