Posts Tagged ‘semi-bluff’

To understand this week’s hand, you have to understand the psychology of a certain type of live player. I’m not the most experienced live player myself, but I do think I’m quite good at understanding what and how my opponents think, and I’ve encountered more than a few of these guys in my time.

They don’t appreciate the variance in poker, and their first goal is to not lose, even if it means a lower overall win rate (not that they think about it in exactly those terms). They hate losing big pots and assume that if they do they must have done something wrong. Usually that something was, in their minds, either overvaluing or failing to protect a good hand. They’ll attribute both of these supposed mistakes to “getting greedy”.

The objective of these players is really to make big hands more than induce to mistakes, balance their play, or anything like that. Some commenters  question whether Villain would limp-call 87s. This may be questionable strategically, but I think you will see it quite a bit from live nits, especially when deep. They aren’t going to raise with it because they want to see the flop cheaply, but they don’t consider it a trouble hand the way they might ATo or KJo or something.  Read the complete post...

Q: If you find time i want your opinion about a hand i played in a EPT side event with a pokerstars pro from Argentina (i don’t remember his name but he won the high roller event last year at EPT London i think)…
With 75/150 blinds and about 9000 effective stack he raised from UTG+1 to 400. Everybody folded to me in button with AJs.
I thought he had a wider than tight players open range so i called.
Flop: 4-T-T rainbow… he bet 650.. I called
Turn: J … he bet 1450 and I called
River: K and he moved all in ( he had more ) and I folded…
The question is are you find my calls to loose?
At flop i thought i call to see his turn reaction… At turn I lost from a Tx, 44, JJ-AA so i call again as i thought he bet with much more hands… But the river? Its obviously great bluffing card but also now i loose from many more hands in his range…  Read the complete post...

This week’s WYP is based on a hand I witnessed during a rare live cash session at the Hollywood Casino in Charles Town, West Virginia. Rare for me, that is- the Hollywood has a surprisingly large and active poker room.

Hero and Villain are both regulars at the casino but don’t have significant history together. Villain is a quiet Asian guy in his early 20′s. He always borders on nitty and is especially so today because he’s playing 5/10 rather than his usual 2/5. He’s up on the session and seems inclined to keep it that way.

Hero is a white 40-something small business owner. Villain probably perceives him as tighter and less creative than he is but also knows him to be a winner in the game. He still has roughly the $2000 he bought in for, and Villain covers.

Villain open limps for $10 in early position. Hero raises to $50 with Td Th two off the button, everyone else folds, and Villain calls.

Flop comes 9c 6c 2h. Villain checks and calls $80.

Turn is the Ts. Villain checks, Hero bets $200, and Villain raises to $700. He is suddenly jittery, bouncing a bit in his seat and hands shaking as he pushes out his raise. Pot is $1160, and Hero has about $1600 still in his stack. What’s your play?  Read the complete post...

Sorry again for the error in my original What’s Your Plan? post. It certainly wasn’t deliberate, but in a weird way it did help to highlight one of the central points of this exercise, which is the significance of Villain’s pre-flop stats and our general read on him.

Most high-volume MTT players are very predictable in the early stages of tournaments. This isn’t so much because they value their survival or because they don’t know how to play deep-stacked but simply because it is more profitable for them to play more games and more or less write off the early stages. They will accumulate a few chips if they get good cards, but if not they will wait until stacks get shorter and the antes kick in. This is where they really shine and where their decisions have a higher impact on their equity, so they choose to focus on tournaments that have already reached this stage and play more straightforwardly in the early levels of their other games.  Read the complete post...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 320 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (5 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t3023)
Hero (BB) (t3978)
UTG (t4344)
MP (t2230)
Button (t1910)

Hero’s M: 53.04

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q♥, K♠
1 fold, MP bets t100, 2 folds, Hero calls t50

Flop: (t225) Q♦, 8♦, 6♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: (t225) A♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets t150

You can argue with the action up to this point if you want, but I’m prepared to dig in my heels. I’m most interested to know how you’re going to proceed from here, both on this street and on club, diamond, straightening, and blank rivers.

I leave Canada tomorrow morning. We’re flying into Las Vegas, camping for a few days in Death Valley, then flying to Maryland for the holidays. All that travel will likely delay my posting the results until Saturday or possibly even Sunday, but I’ll get them up when I can.

Until then, the action’s on you. What’s your plan?

Villain had high Attempt to Steal and post-flop aggression. I debated 3-betting, since I’m well ahead of his pre-flop range, but I didn’t want to fold to a 4-bet, and I think getting it in pre is kinda light. It’s probably slightly +EV, but I hate giving away the advantage of position by just shoveling all the money in immediately. I’d say I was able to achieve a better outcome:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 215 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 20 Ante (9 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 (t6200)
MP2 (t4885)
MP3 (t18909)
CO (t8649)
Button (t9197)
SB (t18572)
Hero (BB) (t8618)
UTG (t4020)
UTG+1 (t10725)

Hero’s M: 17.95

Preflop: Hero is BB with K♣, Q♣
7 folds, SB bets t400, Hero calls t200

Flop: (t980) 2♣, A♣, 9♠ (2 players)
SB bets t400, Hero calls t400

Turn: (t1780) 10♥ (2 players)
SB bets t600, Hero calls t600

River: (t2980) 2♠ (2 players)
SB bets t1400, Hero calls t1400

Total pot: t5780

Results:
SB had Q♦, J♠ (one pair, twos).
Hero had K♣, Q♣ (one pair, twos).
Outcome: Hero won t5780  Read the complete post...

This week’s WYP didn’t prove too controversial, but it generated some good discussion nonetheless. I must say that I’m a little disappointed more of you weren’t tempted to make the same mistake I did:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($2845.40)
BB ($1543.40)
UTG ($798.80)
Hero (MP) ($1573.80)
CO ($2739.30)
Button ($664.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q♥, K♥
UTG bets $18, Hero calls $18, 2 folds, SB calls $15, BB calls $12

Flop: ($79.20) K♠, Q♦, 7♥ (4 players)
SB bets $39, 1 fold, UTG calls $39, Hero raises to $159.90, SB calls $120.90, 1 fold

Turn: ($438) 9♦ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($438) 4♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $284.25, SB raises to $2666.30 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $1006.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB didn’t show
Outcome: SB won $1003.50

I think the consensus among the commenters is correct and checking is better. Even at the time part of me was thinking it wouldn’t be easy to get called by worse and I could get raised by both better and worse. But, like Fuel55, I then told myself that checking top two would be too weak. Nate made the case for checking very well:  Read the complete post...

I tanked for a bit before calling this pre-flop, because it is a little light given our positions, but the dynamic was right. It wasn’t what I was going for, but when he checked the flop I realized that the tank-call may, in his eyes, increase the likelihood that I’m slowplaying a big pair and was considering 4-betting. With some chance of winning immediately plus backdoor draws and probably six outs against his check-calling range, some small bluffs are called for:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (5 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($400)
Hero (UTG) ($622.50)
MP ($406)
Button ($408.80)
SB ($546.55)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K♥, Q♥
Hero bets $14, 3 folds, BB raises to $44, Hero calls $30

Flop: ($90) J♣, J♠, 2♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $33, BB calls $33

Turn: ($156) 4♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $55, 1 fold

Total pot: $156 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero didn’t show K♥, Q♥.
Outcome: Hero won $154