Posts Tagged ‘Session Review’
What’s Your Plan? Flopped Pair and Draw: Results
Judging from the number of comments, folks found this WYP less compelling than someone. That’s to your credit, because as many commenters advocated, I believe folding the flop is correct. Dangerhorse explains why:
I would probably fold although the pot odds are enticing and your hand (a pair and a draw) superficially seems very strong. This is a super wet board and a good player should not be leading into three opponents without something very substantial. I put him on KQ, AQ and stronger. If you raise all-in, I don’t think he folds much. I also don’t think you have the full 13 outs that a pair-and-an-OESD normally does.
Assuming you call, if your draw comes in, with an ace or a nine, it’s going to be a super-scary board, and it’s going to be tough to get paid off, especially being out of position. On top of that, your opponent will often also have a king, so you may well chop even if your draw comes in – or lose to AK.
Not all pair + draws are created equally. On a board like this, where so many draws are likely, it matters a lot that you have the worst pair and are drawing exclusively to non-nut hands. Out of position in a multi-way pot with action from a good player in early position, you can’t afford to treat this as a strong hand.
What’s Your Plan? Flopped Pair + Draw
Edit: Fixed the suit of card (c) so it doesn’t match what’s in Hero’s hand.
It’s Level 4 of the PCA. Hero is wearing his PokerStars Team Online patch, which in Villain’s eyes probably makes him a cash game grinder with minimal tournament experience. Villain is a young online MTT wizard: highly ranked on Pocket Fives, tons of success, modest live experience but certainly knows what he’s doing in any tournament situation. He’s new to the table in the last hour and neither he nor Hero has done anything remarkable in that time. With the exception of Villain and one other good but short-stacked player on Hero’s left, the table is reasonably soft, certainly above average for the field.
Blinds 100/200/25. Villain (13K) opens to 500 UTG+2. Two of the looser players (16K and 40K) at the table call, and Hero (35K) calls Kc Ts in the BB.
Flop Qd Jd Th. Hero checks, Villain bets 1450 into pot of 2300, the other two fold, and the action is back on Hero. What’s your plan?
Just to focus the discussion a bit, let’s assume that if you raise, Villain will shove or fold. If you call, talk about how you’d proceed on each of the following turns:
a) 2s
b) Kh
c) Tc
Quick PCA Day 1 Update
I took plenty of notes for a full write-up, but for now I’ll just say that we started with 30K and I finished with 38.5K. I think the average is between 50 and 60, and blinds will be 500/1000/100 on Monday, so I’m in OK shape. I had two other PokerStars Team Online members at my table, first Bjorn Schneider on my left than Jorge Limon on my right. Other than Bjorn and a pretty good Dutch player my starting table was probably softer than average. By the end of the day we had Jorge and two other good high-stakes cash players, so it was pretty tough then.
I played a funny hand against one of them. Blinds were 400/800/100, and I opened to 2000 with K9s in the HJ. He called in the BB and check-called 2400 on a T55r flop. We both checked an 8 turn, then he bet 5600 on a T river. I wasn’t 100% sure he wouldn’t value bet an A, but I doubted it. I did think he was capable of floating out of position, and this was an ideal spot for it. So I called, and he showed A3 and seemed surprised to win the pot. “I was trying to bluff you off a chop” he told me. Lovely.
Coaching Brag
One of my primary goals when coaching poker is to help my students think more creatively and situationally, to consider all of their options rather than just doing what they think is “standard”. They learn to find value in places they hadn’t thought to look for it by thinking through all aspects of a situation rather than focusing narrowly on their own holding. One common example of this is learning when and how to play unpaired hands for showdown value, usually but not always as bluff-catchers. Initially, many people are very uncomfortable calling with a hand like Ace-high. They might consider bluffing with it, but they usually have trouble recognizing opportunities to show it down as the best hand in all but the smallest pots.
I got an IM yesterday from a student who’s worked with me for a few months. He is originally from Paris, and though he now lives in Manhattan, he played this hand at a French casino while visiting his mother for the holidays. It couldn’t be a better example of what I’m trying to help my students achieve, and I am really proud both of this student and of the progress he has made:
What’s Your Plan? Tournament Edition Results
Sorry again for the error in my original What’s Your Plan? post. It certainly wasn’t deliberate, but in a weird way it did help to highlight one of the central points of this exercise, which is the significance of Villain’s pre-flop stats and our general read on him.
Most high-volume MTT players are very predictable in the early stages of tournaments. This isn’t so much because they value their survival or because they don’t know how to play deep-stacked but simply because it is more profitable for them to play more games and more or less write off the early stages. They will accumulate a few chips if they get good cards, but if not they will wait until stacks get shorter and the antes kick in. This is where they really shine and where their decisions have a higher impact on their equity, so they choose to focus on tournaments that have already reached this stage and play more straightforwardly in the early levels of their other games.
What’s Your Plan? Tournament Edition

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 320 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (5 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB (t3023)
Hero (BB) (t3978)
UTG (t4344)
MP (t2230)
Button (t1910)
Hero’s M: 53.04
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q♥, K♠
1 fold, MP bets t100, 2 folds, Hero calls t50
Flop: (t225) Q♦, 8♦, 6♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks
Turn: (t225) A♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets t150
You can argue with the action up to this point if you want, but I’m prepared to dig in my heels. I’m most interested to know how you’re going to proceed from here, both on this street and on club, diamond, straightening, and blank rivers.
I leave Canada tomorrow morning. We’re flying into Las Vegas, camping for a few days in Death Valley, then flying to Maryland for the holidays. All that travel will likely delay my posting the results until Saturday or possibly even Sunday, but I’ll get them up when I can.
Until then, the action’s on you. What’s your plan?
Three Barrels, King-High
Villain had high Attempt to Steal and post-flop aggression. I debated 3-betting, since I’m well ahead of his pre-flop range, but I didn’t want to fold to a 4-bet, and I think getting it in pre is kinda light. It’s probably slightly +EV, but I hate giving away the advantage of position by just shoveling all the money in immediately. I’d say I was able to achieve a better outcome:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 215 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 20 Ante (9 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 (t6200)
MP2 (t4885)
MP3 (t18909)
CO (t8649)
Button (t9197)
SB (t18572)
Hero (BB) (t8618)
UTG (t4020)
UTG+1 (t10725)
Hero’s M: 17.95
Preflop: Hero is BB with K♣, Q♣
7 folds, SB bets t400, Hero calls t200
Flop: (t980) 2♣, A♣, 9♠ (2 players)
SB bets t400, Hero calls t400
Turn: (t1780) 10♥ (2 players)
SB bets t600, Hero calls t600
River: (t2980) 2♠ (2 players)
SB bets t1400, Hero calls t1400
Total pot: t5780
Results:
SB had Q♦, J♠ (one pair, twos).
Hero had K♣, Q♣ (one pair, twos).
Outcome: Hero won t5780
What’s Your Play? Top Two on the River Results
This week’s WYP didn’t prove too controversial, but it generated some good discussion nonetheless. I must say that I’m a little disappointed more of you weren’t tempted to make the same mistake I did:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($2845.40)
BB ($1543.40)
UTG ($798.80)
Hero (MP) ($1573.80)
CO ($2739.30)
Button ($664.40)
Preflop: Hero is MP with Q♥, K♥
UTG bets $18, Hero calls $18, 2 folds, SB calls $15, BB calls $12
Flop: ($79.20) K♠, Q♦, 7♥ (4 players)
SB bets $39, 1 fold, UTG calls $39, Hero raises to $159.90, SB calls $120.90, 1 fold
Turn: ($438) 9♦ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
River: ($438) 4♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $284.25, SB raises to $2666.30 (All-In), Hero folds
Total pot: $1006.50 | Rake: $3
Results:
SB didn’t show
Outcome: SB won $1003.50
I think the consensus among the commenters is correct and checking is better. Even at the time part of me was thinking it wouldn’t be easy to get called by worse and I could get raised by both better and worse. But, like Fuel55, I then told myself that checking top two would be too weak. Nate made the case for checking very well:

