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Part One is now live, and the rest should be going up over the course of the next week or so.

If you’re not yet a Tournament Poker Edge member, let this be your impetus to sign up!

Fortunately Luis was willing and able to take a train out from the city to come visit for the weekend! Emily found a great French restaurant in Val David where we had an excellent meal. Even Luis was impressed by it, and he used to work at one of the best French restaurants in Montreal! One of the best according to him, that is – when he told the owner of La Table Des Gourmets about his experience, she dismissed it as “merely a bistro”.

Anyway, it was great to see him, but the end of WCOOP was otherwise quite anti-climactic. Emily and I dropped Luis off at the train station and returned in time for me to late register the $1050. I played a total of five hands and promptly busted AQs < ATo.

The $530 was even less remarkable, I chipped up a bit and eventually lost AJ to 99.

And the Main Event, well… I played two bullets and never won a pot larger 6000 chips. This is probably one of the more interesting losses. TBH I almost just folded the flop:

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9h Kh
fold, UTG+1 raises to 2.06 BB, fold, MP+1 calls 2.06 BB, MP+2 calls 2.06 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.06 BB, fold, BB calls 1.06 BB

Flop : (11.92 BB, 5 players) Jc Kd 9s
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP+1 bets 5.96 BB, fold, Hero calls 5.96 BB, fold, fold

Turn : (23.85 BB, 2 players) 7h
MP+1 bets 11.93 BB, fold

MP+1 wins 23.85 BB

PokerStars – 300/600 Ante 75 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 40.77 BB (VPIP: 34.18, PFR: 20.25, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 79)
BB: 36.24 BB (VPIP: 20.94, PFR: 14.34, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 277)
UTG: 58.62 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 12.04, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 110)
Hero (MP): 193.9 BB
CO: 126.23 BB (VPIP: 30.28, PFR: 21.22, 3Bet Preflop: 8.85, Hands: 867)
BTN: 53.83 BB (VPIP: 22.76, PFR: 13.82, 3Bet Preflop: 1.69, Hands: 123)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has 7d 7c
fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, CO raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 4.72 BB

Flop : (16.25 BB, 2 players) Td 5c 4s
Hero checks, CO bets 5.04 BB, Hero calls 5.04 BB

Turn : (26.33 BB, 2 players) 6c
Hero bets 16.5 BB, CO raises to 114.07 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 97.57 BB

River : (254.47 BB, 2 players) 3d

Hero shows 7d 7c (Straight, Seven High)
(Pre 52%, Flop 69%, Turn 68%)

CO shows Ac Qc (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 48%, Flop 31%, Turn 32%)

Hero wins 254.47 BB

I ended up bubbling in a quite interesting spot. The all in Villain had a substantial bounty, large enough that I think it was worth the risk of bubbling to go after it. It’s important that I give myself the option to fold and sneak into the money if the flop doesn’t give me a shot of KO’ing the all in player – if I had to get all in myself before the flop, the decision would have been much tougher and probably I would have to fold.

What happened was the worst case scenario: I flopped well enough to get all in but ended up busting, collecting neither the bounty nor a min cash (though I was still in the black thanks to my earlier bounties).

PokerStars – 3000/6000 Ante 750 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 40.34 BB (VPIP: 31.50, PFR: 15.08, 3Bet Preflop: 5.36, Hands: 129)
BTN: 54.55 BB (VPIP: 24.55, PFR: 16.51, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 110)
SB: 78.86 BB (VPIP: 20.29, PFR: 12.32, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 354)
Hero (BB): 21.49 BB
UTG: 8.56 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
MP: 35.36 BB (VPIP: 27.57, PFR: 20.06, 3Bet Preflop: 8.97, Hands: 347)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has Th 5h
UTG raises to 8.44 BB and is all-in, fold, CO calls 8.44 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 7.44 BB

Flop : (26.57 BB, 3 players) 5d 6h 3c
Hero bets 12.92 BB and is all-in, CO calls 12.92 BB

Turn : (52.41 BB, 3 players) Ac

River : (52.41 BB, 3 players) Kd

Hero shows Th 5h (One Pair, Fives)

CO shows Ah 8h (One Pair, Aces)

UTG shows Qc As (One Pair, Aces)

CO wins 25.85 BB
UTG wins 26.57 BB

I’m struggling to find an interesting hand from the $215. This is the best I came up with. It may look like a straight-forward spot, but in my experience a lot of less experienced players will just call the flop (which, to be fair, is probably what I would have done too a few years ago):

PokerStars – 800/1600 Ante 200 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 24.59 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 15.56, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 45)
Hero (BB): 76.47 BB
UTG: 42.8 BB (VPIP: 21.13, PFR: 14.25, 3Bet Preflop: 6.29, Hands: 427)
UTG+1: 19.79 BB (VPIP: 19.32, PFR: 15.97, 3Bet Preflop: 5.83, Hands: 266)
MP: 59.01 BB (VPIP: 29.84, PFR: 17.74, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 124)
MP+1: 90.76 BB (VPIP: 20.97, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 124)
CO: 58.3 BB (VPIP: 31.22, PFR: 20.78, 3Bet Preflop: 10.58, Hands: 238)
BTN: 31 BB (VPIP: 19.48, PFR: 13.25, 3Bet Preflop: 7.22, Hands: 578)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has Js Kc
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop : (5.5 BB, 2 players) 5h Td Jc
Hero checks, BTN bets 2 BB, Hero raises to 6.75 BB, BTN raises to 28.6 BB, Hero raises to 50.45 BB, BTN calls 0.28 BB and is all-in

Turn : (63.25 BB, 2 players) As

River : (63.25 BB, 2 players) Ac

Hero shows Js Kc (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
(Pre 25%, Flop 69%, Turn 9%)

BTN shows Ad Kd (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 75%, Flop 31%, Turn 91%)

BTN wins 63.25 BB

I also max late registered the $530 Courchevel, which is a game I really enjoy, though I’m not sure I’m a favorite in a $530 field. With the late register, though, I got in with about 120 players remaining and 35 getting paid, so that’s how I justified it. For those who don’t know, Courchevel is a five-card PLO8 game where one of the flop cards is revealed before the pre-flop betting.

I didn’t last long at all – had QQ with a Q in the door, got all in pre against someone holding AA with a nut suit of the door card and some wrap potential. There’s no equity calculator for Courchevel so I’m not really sure whether I was favored there, but I doubt it was dramatic one way or the other.

Anyway, the big news is that I won the $44 Bounty Builder, which is a daily Progressive Knock-Out event on PokerStars. In the past, during COOPs, I used to fill screen space with Zoom games, and I still do that sometimes. But early in a session, I’ve started using smaller buy-in tournaments instead. I find it helps not to have to switch back and forth between tournament and cash mentality, and in many cases these tournaments may be better value anyway, the drawback being that sometimes it sucks when your session is extended by a few hours for a tournament you didn’t really want to play anyway. But it’s all good when you win it!

Even better, I recorded the last few hours live for Tournament Poker Edge. I started recording because I was in a bunch of events that were tough to cover in a replayer: some PKOs, the $55 Razz, and eventually the $530 Courchevel. So I thought it would be fun to record live. Then I just kept recording as I made the final table and eventually won the tournament!

I’m not going to post any hands from that just yet because you’ll have a chance to see lots of the important action on TPE soon enough.

PokerStars – 175/350 Ante 45 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BB): 183.45 BB
UTG: 165.5 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
UTG+1: 129.36 BB (VPIP: 25.42, PFR: 19.64, 3Bet Preflop: 10.71, Hands: 60)
MP: 145.31 BB (VPIP: 18.34, PFR: 14.11, 3Bet Preflop: 8.91, Hands: 574)
MP+1: 158.17 BB (VPIP: 15.91, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 44)
MP+2: 142.54 BB (VPIP: 5.26, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
CO: 115.69 BB (VPIP: 17.36, PFR: 10.95, 3Bet Preflop: 6.61, Hands: 481)
BTN: 131.73 BB (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 15.91, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 44)
SB: 70.86 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.66 BB) Hero has Kh Kc
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12.35 BB, CO calls 9.35 BB

Flop : (26.35 BB, 2 players) Jd Qh 8d
Hero bets 13.17 BB, CO calls 13.17 BB

Turn : (52.7 BB, 2 players) Tc
Hero bets 26.35 BB, CO calls 26.35 BB

River : (105.39 BB, 2 players) Ks
Hero bets 131.45 BB and is all-in, CO calls 63.69 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Kh Kc (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 67%, Flop 55%, Turn 77%)

CO shows Ad 3d (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 33%, Flop 45%, Turn 23%)

CO wins 232.77 BB

Villain was a world-class player, and I hated this spot from the flop.

My plan after the turn was actually to barrel off as a bluff, as I think I have way more AK in my range than Villain, and although KK could be good, it often won’t be and will be tough to showdown when it is.

Then I had to change course again on the river. In the moment I decided that I didn’t want to check-fold for a good deal less than a pot-sized bet, so I might as well shove for thin value. I remember thinking “just about the only Ace he can have is Ax of diamonds”. But in retrospect there are a good number of those, and Villain has some 9x as well which means he probably doesn’t need to call with hands I beat. So yeah, in retrospect I think I should have check-folded.

As for the $109, I ultimately busted in 54th. Here’s a Day 2 hand I’m pretty happy about:

PokerStars – 50000/100000 Ante 12500 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 33.51 BB (VPIP: 19.06, PFR: 12.85, 3Bet Preflop: 3.79, Hands: 322)
MP: 20.39 BB (VPIP: 9.18, PFR: 7.37, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 98)
CO: 30.9 BB (VPIP: 29.58, PFR: 26.47, 3Bet Preflop: 15.00, Hands: 72)
BTN: 23.72 BB (VPIP: 23.26, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 8.24, Hands: 219)
SB: 36.51 BB (VPIP: 16.39, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 61)
Hero (BB): 14.88 BB
UTG: 14.22 BB (VPIP: 28.83, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 2.17, Hands: 112)

7 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.37 BB) Hero has 7d 4s
UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, MP calls 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop : (9.37 BB, 4 players) Tc 9h 6c
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks

Turn : (9.37 BB, 4 players) Td
Hero bets 2.81 BB, fold, fold, fold

Hero wins 9.37 BB

Pretty nice to increase stack by about 2/3 with no hand and very little risk!

I also ended up running quite deep in the Big $109 again (I came 3rd last week) but ultimately busted in 18th.

I got off to a good start in it but then lost AK to AK.

In the $215 PKO, I got quite ambitious in an early pot. I’m still not sure what to think of it – it’s so hard to decide how to value accumulation vs survival in these events. It doesn’t look great, but I think looking at each decision in a vacuum none seems bad to me.

Initially, I’ve got a pretty good hand and there’s a ton of money in the pot that I’d love to win immediately. I don’t think Villain’s 4-bet is that likely to be light, but it’s not impossible. Plus with all the dead money and the bounty on Villain, getting in AJ vs KK isn’t the end of the world anyway. Losing your chips early in a WCOOP sucks, but running up a big stack in a PKO has a lot more value than in a regular tournament because it enables you to chase bounties.

PokerStars – 150/300 Ante 40 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 139.08 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
MP+1: 115.54 BB (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 12.63, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 96)
MP+2: 185.11 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
CO: 151.38 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
Hero (BTN): 164.16 BB
SB: 137.6 BB (VPIP: 21.01, PFR: 14.03, 3Bet Preflop: 6.37, Hands: 562)
BB: 190.93 BB (VPIP: 21.59, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 88)
UTG: 158.31 BB (VPIP: 26.11, PFR: 15.84, 3Bet Preflop: 15.46, Hands: 204)
UTG+1: 166.27 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has Jd Ac
UTG raises to 2.5 BB, UTG+1 calls 2.5 BB, MP calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 12.59 BB, fold, fold, UTG raises to 34 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 164.03 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 124.18 BB and is all-in

Flop : (326.56 BB, 2 players) 2s 6h 4s

Turn : (326.56 BB, 2 players) Qd

River : (326.56 BB, 2 players) 6c

UTG shows Ks Kc (Two Pair, Kings and Sixes)
(Pre 71%, Flop 87%, Turn 93%)

Hero shows Jd Ac (One Pair, Sixes)
(Pre 29%, Flop 13%, Turn 7%)

UTG wins 326.56 BB

The Sunday Million was frustrating. I kept getting into bad spots with big pairs, where it felt like I didn’t have any great options. This was the worst: https://www.boomplayer.com/25291484_011D353AB9

Frankly, I’m surprised the SB was so light here (though he was Brazilian). Given that I’m essentially 3-betting into a dry sidepot, there’s just not that reason for me to be light, and I don’t think he has that much incentive to randomly 4-bet me. And then the 5-bet from UTG – obviously it’s hard to like the fold once i know the results, but in general my rule is to trust my gut when it tells me to hero fold, because that’s not usually what it tells me to do.

It probably didn’t help that I’d already been in a few spots where I at least suspected that I’d been coolered, including this one where I ran KK into AA: https://www.boomplayer.com/25289125_4ADA91F5DB.

All of that said, I did get two double-ups in spots where that required at least a little above the rim play: https://www.boomplayer.com/25287412_36769CB6FC and https://www.boomplayer.com/25291645_CBB5AA13F0.

In happier news, I made Day 2 of the $109 WCOOP-Low!

Saturday started early. Usually I deal with that by late registering, but the 7AM event was a progressive knock-out, and although Stars allows late registration in those, it’s a financial disaster to do so. So I figured I would play that and then see how I felt for the afternoon event.

It got off to a rough start. A guy put in a crazy amount with 22 against my AK, which wasn’t the end of the world since I covered him, but his pair held up so instead of getting his bounty I got short-stacked. I managed to make a recovery though (it’s easy to get your money in good as a short stack in a bounty event, because everyone else has incentive to call you very light) and after this extremely fun hand I had more chips than anyone else in the tournament (also on Boom if you’d rather watch the replay):

PokerStars – 1250/2500 Ante 325 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+2: 69.55 BB (VPIP: 19.40, PFR: 10.61, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, Hands: 67)
CO: 88.92 BB (VPIP: 13.75, PFR: 7.50, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, Hands: 81)
BTN: 17.37 BB (VPIP: 17.69, PFR: 4.65, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 131)
SB: 22.61 BB (VPIP: 26.74, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 16.28, Hands: 87)
Hero (BB): 166.42 BB
UTG: 85.05 BB (VPIP: 19.64, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 57)
UTG+1: 54.64 BB (VPIP: 17.95, PFR: 10.26, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 39)
MP: 51.98 BB (VPIP: 31.34, PFR: 19.08, 3Bet Preflop: 9.23, Hands: 136)
MP+1: 129.68 BB (VPIP: 17.61, PFR: 13.81, 3Bet Preflop: 10.48, Hands: 517)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.67 BB) Hero has 7c 9d
fold, fold, MP raises to 2.3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.3 BB

Flop : (6.27 BB, 2 players) Ts 9c Th
Hero checks, MP bets 2.32 BB, Hero raises to 5.59 BB, MP calls 3.27 BB

Turn : (17.46 BB, 2 players) 8h
Hero checks, MP bets 6.36 BB, Hero raises to 15.41 BB, MP calls 9.05 BB

River : (48.28 BB, 2 players) 4s
Hero checks, MP bets 28.55 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 28.55 BB

MP shows Js Kc (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 65%, Flop 38%, Turn 23%)

Hero shows 7c 9d (Two Pair, Tens and Nines)
(Pre 35%, Flop 62%, Turn 77%)

Hero wins 105.38 BB

I’m not too pleased with the hand I busted on. I do think I should have gone broke given how the board ran out, but it would have been better to call the flop and get all in on this turn.

PokerStars – 6000/12000 Ante 1500 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 6.98 BB (VPIP: 22.16, PFR: 13.23, 3Bet Preflop: 9.18, Hands: 194)
Hero (BTN): 31.1 BB
SB: 75.19 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BB: 135.17 BB (VPIP: 18.84, PFR: 13.43, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 73)
UTG: 165.89 BB (VPIP: 31.67, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 242)
UTG+1: 44.35 BB (VPIP: 19.67, PFR: 14.66, 3Bet Preflop: 10.24, Hands: 606)
MP: 25.96 BB (VPIP: 16.70, PFR: 11.94, 3Bet Preflop: 5.09, Hands: 504)
MP+1: 35.16 BB (VPIP: 21.00, PFR: 16.26, 3Bet Preflop: 10.31, Hands: 501)
MP+2: 37.86 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 9)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Ac Js
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.4 BB, fold, BB calls 1.4 BB

Flop : (8.82 BB, 3 players) Tc Jc 9d
BB checks, MP+1 checks, Hero bets 2.65 BB, BB raises to 6.58 BB, fold, Hero raises to 28.58 BB and is all-in, BB calls 21.99 BB

Turn : (65.98 BB, 2 players) 2d

River : (65.98 BB, 2 players) 2c

BB shows 9c Qc (Flush, Queen High)
(Pre 40%, Flop 62%, Turn 43%)

Hero shows Ac Js (Two Pair, Jacks and Twos)
(Pre 60%, Flop 38%, Turn 57%)

BB wins 65.98 BB

I didn’t do anything too interesting in the $215 rebuy, but here’s a hand I screwed up:

PokerStars – 300/600 Ante 75 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 83.23 BB (VPIP: 33.46, PFR: 20.31, 3Bet Preflop: 6.56, Hands: 267)
CO: 51.64 BB (VPIP: 22.86, PFR: 22.86, 3Bet Preflop: 17.65, Hands: 35)
BTN: 49.94 BB (VPIP: 15.11, PFR: 8.73, 3Bet Preflop: 1.79, Hands: 140)
SB: 79.96 BB (VPIP: 20.26, PFR: 14.66, 3Bet Preflop: 6.86, Hands: 545)
Hero (BB): 96.56 BB
UTG: 37.1 BB (VPIP: 20.21, PFR: 12.43, 3Bet Preflop: 5.75, Hands: 189)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has 7s 8h
fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero raises to 3.7 BB, SB raises to 13 BB, Hero calls 9.3 BB

Flop : (26.75 BB, 2 players) 9d 4d Td
SB bets 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB

Turn : (50.75 BB, 2 players) 6d
SB checks, Hero checks

River : (50.75 BB, 2 players) 7c
SB bets 15.73 BB, Hero calls 15.73 BB

SB shows Jc Jd (Flush, Jack High)
(Pre 82%, Flop 85%, Turn 100%)

Hero mucks 7s 8h (Straight, Ten High)
(Pre 18%, Flop 15%, Turn 0%)

SB wins 82.22 BB

I think I played the turn right, and maybe the flop? But pre-flop, I probably screwed up twice, and the river should probably be a fold. #TheyAlwaysHaveIt

PokerStars – 100/200 Ante 25 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 223.49 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 15)
BTN: 256.49 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
SB: 250.62 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
Hero (BB): 251.25 BB
UTG: 247.62 BB (VPIP: 14.15, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 205)

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.12 BB) Hero has 4c 4h
UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop : (8.62 BB, 3 players) Kc 4d 5d
Hero checks, UTG bets 4.14 BB, BTN calls 4.14 BB, Hero raises to 25.18 BB, fold, BTN calls 21.04 BB

Turn : (63.13 BB, 2 players) Kd
Hero bets 18.94 BB, BTN raises to 57 BB, Hero calls 38.06 BB

River : (177.13 BB, 2 players) Qs
Hero checks, BTN bets 171.68 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 166.44 BB and is all-in

BTN shows 5s 5h (Full House, Fives full of Kings)
(Pre 81%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)

Hero shows 4c 4h (Full House, Fours full of Kings)
(Pre 19%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)

BTN wins 510.01 BB

Honestly, I’m not at all sure this was a good river call. I do think it’s just a bluff-catcher, and although the 4s are somewhat relevant blockers, this is probably a spot where most people underbluff enough and my remaining chips valuable enough for me to fold.

It all worked out in the end though, because I took a few hours off (I hadn’t registered anything else yet) and then put in an afternoon session instead, which culminated in my taking 3rd out of nearly 1000 runners in the Big $109. That will almost certainly become a video on Tournament Poker Edge so I don’t want to give away too much, but here are two fun hands from the last two tables:

PokerStars – 2500/5000 Ante 625 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 17.34 BB (VPIP: 21.60, PFR: 15.87, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 705)
BB: 69.56 BB (VPIP: 26.88, PFR: 20.24, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 93)
UTG: 49.33 BB (VPIP: 45.45, PFR: 36.36, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 11)
UTG+1: 23.91 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 13)
Hero (MP): 18.75 BB
MP+1: 33.19 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, Hands: 56)
MP+2: 8.21 BB (VPIP: 22.35, PFR: 14.32, 3Bet Preflop: 8.12, Hands: 427)
CO: 76.27 BB (VPIP: 15.45, PFR: 9.62, 3Bet Preflop: 5.13, Hands: 110)
BTN: 31 BB (VPIP: 21.48, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 12.28, Hands: 257)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Qs Kh
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (6.18 BB, 2 players) 7s 2h 5s
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (6.18 BB, 2 players) 2c
BB checks, Hero checks

River : (6.18 BB, 2 players) 6h
BB bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

BB shows 4s Ks (One Pair, Twos)
(Pre 29%, Flop 46%, Turn 32%)

Hero shows Qs Kh (One Pair, Twos)
(Pre 71%, Flop 54%, Turn 68%)

Hero wins 14.18 BB

Villain was active in the chat box, which made it even more fun.

This was with 11 players remaining. Villain timed down to 0 before folding. Was quite the sweat:

PokerStars – 6000/12000 Ante 1500 NL – Holdem – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 14.71 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 33)
UTG: 36.57 BB (VPIP: 20.49, PFR: 15.05, 3Bet Preflop: 8.39, Hands: 701)
CO: 65.94 BB (VPIP: 18.41, PFR: 15.04, 3Bet Preflop: 9.80, Hands: 357)
BTN: 50.35 BB (VPIP: 22.90, PFR: 16.75, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 434)
Hero (SB): 34.54 BB

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.12 BB) Hero has 8c Kc
fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.1 BB, Hero raises to 6.48 BB, fold, BTN calls 4.38 BB

Flop : (14.59 BB, 2 players) 7s Ts 5d
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn : (14.59 BB, 2 players) 6c
Hero checks, BTN bets 7 BB, Hero raises to 27.94 BB and is all-in, fold

Hero wins 28.59 BB

PS Nothing to write home about in the $1050 PKO. Collected one bounty.

Wednesday did not get off to a great start in the $500. Pretty early on, I lost this gem:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 142.61 BB (VPIP: 24.49, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 49)
MP+2: 130.55 BB (VPIP: 27.19, PFR: 15.18, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 114)
CO: 126.32 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 19.73, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 154)
BTN: 130.29 BB (VPIP: 19.65, PFR: 13.86, 3Bet Preflop: 4.79, Hands: 343)
SB: 97.6 BB (VPIP: 22.38, PFR: 16.79, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 143)
BB: 116.88 BB (VPIP: 17.28, PFR: 12.45, 3Bet Preflop: 6.87, Hands: 273)
UTG: 127.12 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 16.19, 3Bet Preflop: 8.20, Hands: 184)
UTG+1: 172.18 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (MP): 77.76 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9c Tc
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (8.46 BB, 3 players) 8c Qs Jh
BB checks, Hero checks, MP+2 bets 4.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 4.5 BB

Turn : (17.46 BB, 2 players) 5c
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 8.73 BB, Hero raises to 22.22 BB, MP+2 calls 13.49 BB

River : (61.9 BB, 2 players) 2c
Hero bets 48.63 BB and is all-in, MP+2 calls 48.63 BB

Hero shows 9c Tc (Flush, Ten High)
(Pre 34%, Flop 92%, Turn 84%)

MP+2 shows Kc Jc (Flush, King High)
(Pre 66%, Flop 8%, Turn 16%)

MP+2 wins 159.17 BB

The Zoom 6-Max was going better, for a while. It’s a fun format, over as quickly as a turbo but the Zoom structure means you get more hands per level than you would in a turbo (though it still isn’t as deep as a normal WCOOP). I actually gave some thought to folding this river, as I really couldn’t figure out what he would 3-bet-call from the SB that I could beat. Finally I decided it could be a strangely played AK, and thankfully it was!

PokerStars – 400/800 Ante 100 NL FAST (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 58.23 BB (VPIP: 25.76, PFR: 16.92, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 68)
SB: 70.2 BB (VPIP: 25.33, PFR: 18.31, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 75)
Hero (BB): 105.34 BB
UTG: 47.54 BB (VPIP: 19.46, PFR: 17.19, 3Bet Preflop: 10.11, Hands: 2,416)
MP: 64.6 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 133)
CO: 77.86 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has Jc Jd
fold, fold, CO raises to 2.2 BB, BTN calls 2.2 BB, SB raises to 7 BB, Hero raises to 20.83 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 13.83 BB

Flop : (46.81 BB, 2 players) Td 2s 4c
SB checks, Hero bets 11.11 BB, SB calls 11.11 BB

Turn : (69.03 BB, 2 players) Tc
SB checks, Hero checks

River : (69.03 BB, 2 players) 8h
SB bets 38.13 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 38.13 BB

SB shows Kh Ac (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 43%, Flop 26%, Turn 14%)

Hero shows Jc Jd (Two Pair, Jacks and Tens)
(Pre 57%, Flop 74%, Turn 86%)

Hero wins 145.29 BB

Karma caught up to me though, as I eventually got in JJ vs AK pre-flop and lost.

PokerStars – 600/1200 Ante 150 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (SB): 51.71 BB
BB: 54.56 BB (VPIP: 21.21, PFR: 17.28, 3Bet Preflop: 5.41, Hands: 200)
UTG: 41.95 BB (VPIP: 17.68, PFR: 12.53, 3Bet Preflop: 5.50, Hands: 477)
UTG+1: 38.72 BB (VPIP: 11.18, PFR: 8.82, 3Bet Preflop: 2.94, Hands: 170)
MP: 22.59 BB (VPIP: 22.96, PFR: 13.43, 3Bet Preflop: 1.75, Hands: 137)
MP+1: 29.47 BB (VPIP: 13.55, PFR: 9.15, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 156)
MP+2: 9.75 BB (VPIP: 18.32, PFR: 14.32, 3Bet Preflop: 7.83, Hands: 395)
CO: 70.81 BB (VPIP: 18.14, PFR: 13.06, 3Bet Preflop: 5.38, Hands: 659)
BTN: 184.3 BB (VPIP: 27.75, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 10.11, Hands: 192)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9d 9c
UTG raises to 2.2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.7 BB, fold

Flop : (6.52 BB, 2 players) 9s Qd Js
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn : (6.52 BB, 2 players) Jh
Hero checks, UTG bets 2.28 BB, Hero calls 2.28 BB

River : (11.09 BB, 2 players) Th
Hero checks, UTG checks

Hero shows 9d 9c (Full House, Nines full of Jacks)
(Pre 82%, Flop 95%, Turn 100%)

UTG mucks 7c 7s (Two Pair, Jacks and Sevens)
(Pre 18%, Flop 5%, Turn 0%)

Hero wins 11.09 BB

Here’s an interesting one from the $215. I don’t love check-raising bottom two when this deep on a board like this one, because although you benefit a bit from protection you aren’t generally going to end up with a hand that you want to play for four bets. Case in point: by the time we see the river, I’m at the bottom of my range and ready to turn my hand into a bluff, mostly to get Villain off of a Q though perhaps also AA or AJ.

PokerStars – 150/300 Ante 40 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 168.05 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 32)
MP+1: 148.96 BB (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 27)
MP+2: 171.63 BB (VPIP: 21.18, PFR: 13.58, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 86)
CO: 175.34 BB (VPIP: 21.15, PFR: 14.49, 3Bet Preflop: 4.59, Hands: 491)
BTN: 157.53 BB (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 2.78, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
SB: 140.37 BB (VPIP: 45.85, PFR: 34.51, 3Bet Preflop: 11.24, Hands: 233)
Hero (BB): 114.67 BB
UTG: 201.03 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 14)
UTG+1: 170.1 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has 8s Jh
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop : (6.7 BB, 2 players) Jd Kd 8h
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

Turn : (12.7 BB, 2 players) Kh
Hero checks, MP+2 checks

River : (12.7 BB, 2 players) Qd
Hero bets 8.38 BB, fold

Hero wins 12.7 BB

This was a gross one from the $530:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 107.42 BB (VPIP: 19.17, PFR: 14.39, 3Bet Preflop: 7.03, Hands: 433)
MP: 92.68 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
MP+1: 171.23 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 48)
MP+2: 86.44 BB (VPIP: 18.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 50)
Hero (CO): 193.65 BB
BTN: 119.7 BB (VPIP: 21.59, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 7.45, Hands: 227)
SB: 119.16 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BB: 121.14 BB (VPIP: 26.85, PFR: 20.56, 3Bet Preflop: 6.10, Hands: 217)
UTG: 163.31 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Jh Js
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2.19 BB, Hero raises to 6.45 BB, BTN raises to 15 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 8.55 BB

Flop : (34.81 BB, 2 players) 4s 9d 8d
Hero checks, BTN bets 10.7 BB, Hero calls 10.7 BB

Turn : (56.21 BB, 2 players) Kd
Hero checks, BTN checks

River : (56.21 BB, 2 players) Jc
Hero bets 167.83 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 93.88 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Jh Js (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 68%, Flop 53%, Turn 0%)

BTN shows Td Ad (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 32%, Flop 47%, Turn 100%)

BTN wins 243.97 BB

I can’t fault Villain’s play, it’s just a great spot for him to pressure me pre-flop. It’s possible I’m just supposed to raise again pre-flop; I certainly considered it, but the money behind seemed awkward. I haven’t run in CREV yet but I feel good about the river shove. I doubt Villain will have enough flushes and KK to be able to fold a lot of his AK/AA.

And in a throwback to one of my earliest poker strategy articles, here I am bluffing a calling station:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 108.05 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 14.52, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 429)
SB: 116.52 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BB: 175.63 BB (VPIP: 22.73, PFR: 6.82, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 44)
UTG: 89.82 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 46)
Hero (UTG+1): 176.1 BB
MP: 115.08 BB (VPIP: 21.97, PFR: 13.89, 3Bet Preflop: 7.61, Hands: 223)
MP+1: 122.04 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP+2: 121.76 BB (VPIP: 27.36, PFR: 20.95, 3Bet Preflop: 6.17, Hands: 213)
CO: 149.74 BB (VPIP: 29.55, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9c Tc
fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 1.78 BB, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (7.96 BB, 3 players) 8s 2s Jd
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 5.26 BB, SB calls 5.26 BB, fold

Turn : (18.48 BB, 2 players) 6s
SB checks, Hero bets 9.24 BB, SB calls 9.24 BB

River : (36.96 BB, 2 players) 4s
SB checks, Hero bets 18.48 BB, fold

Hero wins 36.96 BB

Win the Button is a format I haven’t quite wrapped my head around yet. The most obvious adjustment is that you should try harder to win pots because there’s more of a reward for winning pots, but what’s less obvious is that you also care who win them from. That means the delta on defending your BB against the Button is much larger than defending against UTG, because if you fold to UTG you will be CO next hand, but if you fold to Button you will be BB again. I did some extra battling in late position for this reason, but here’s the hand I’m most proud of:

PokerStars – 175/350 Ante 45 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 145.3 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
BTN: 367.52 BB (VPIP: 62.50, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
SB: 127.53 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 46)
BB: 155.34 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 60.00, 3Bet Preflop: 66.67, Hands: 5)
UTG: 7.57 BB (VPIP: 23.76, PFR: 19.52, 3Bet Preflop: 6.27, Hands: 1,005)
UTG+1: 131.33 BB (VPIP: 26.90, PFR: 16.07, 3Bet Preflop: 8.97, Hands: 343)
MP: 169.78 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
Hero (MP+1): 75.54 BB

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.53 BB) Hero has Ad Qh
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.79 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.29 BB, BB calls 1.79 BB

Flop : (9.39 BB, 3 players) 4d As 6d
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 2.82 BB, SB calls 2.82 BB, fold

Turn : (15.03 BB, 2 players) Th
SB checks, Hero bets 15.03 BB, SB calls 15.03 BB

River : (45.09 BB, 2 players) Td
SB checks, Hero bets 54.77 BB and is all-in, SB calls 54.77 BB

Hero shows Ad Qh (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 74%, Flop 86%, Turn 93%)

SB shows Ah 9d (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 26%, Flop 14%, Turn 7%)

Hero wins 154.63 BB

Needless to say, Villain should fold pre, and this is kind of an example of why. His A9o may have reasonable equity against my opening range, but it doesn’t realize that equity well, especially not against a player capable of recognizing spots like this.

There was also this value bet with Ace-Queen high on the river:

PokerStars – 1250/2500 Ante 325 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 29.62 BB (VPIP: 24.42, PFR: 17.80, 3Bet Preflop: 6.59, Hands: 394)
BTN: 88.21 BB (VPIP: 24.02, PFR: 9.04, 3Bet Preflop: 1.35, Hands: 179)
SB: 37.35 BB (VPIP: 24.30, PFR: 15.26, 3Bet Preflop: 3.77, Hands: 252)
BB: 28.47 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 12.73, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 56)
UTG: 73.5 BB (VPIP: 27.12, PFR: 19.01, 3Bet Preflop: 6.62, Hands: 713)
UTG+1: 17.34 BB (VPIP: 14.62, PFR: 7.77, 3Bet Preflop: 1.03, Hands: 212)
MP: 81.56 BB (VPIP: 24.51, PFR: 14.97, 3Bet Preflop: 6.00, Hands: 358)
MP+1: 94.43 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 15.16, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 345)
Hero (MP+2): 42.84 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.67 BB) Hero has Qc Ad
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, CO calls 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop : (7.23 BB, 2 players) 3s 8c 7h
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn : (7.23 BB, 2 players) 6d
Hero checks, CO checks

River : (7.23 BB, 2 players) 8h
Hero bets 2.17 BB, CO calls 2.17 BB

Hero shows Qc Ad (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 69%, Flop 81%, Turn 93%)

CO mucks Ah Jh (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 31%, Flop 19%, Turn 7%)

Hero wins 11.57 BB

The hand I busted on felt bad, and in fact while CREV likes my flop check (it plays a mix but mostly checks ATdd), it has almost no raising range on the turn. Which makes sense: this isn’t a flop on which I should often check strong hands, so on blank turns I’ll generally be quite capped and should therefore play the role of the bluff-catcher. Of course that would enable me to fold on a river like this one:

PokerStars – 2500/5000 Ante 625 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 33.71 BB (VPIP: 18.78, PFR: 13.74, 3Bet Preflop: 4.70, Hands: 773)
CO: 42.19 BB (VPIP: 19.51, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 41)
Hero (BTN): 21.18 BB
SB: 44.05 BB (VPIP: 23.38, PFR: 17.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 77)
BB: 55.1 BB (VPIP: 18.99, PFR: 14.11, 3Bet Preflop: 7.33, Hands: 339)
UTG: 24.1 BB (VPIP: 30.93, PFR: 7.45, 3Bet Preflop: 6.38, Hands: 97)
UTG+1: 24.17 BB (VPIP: 14.58, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 48)
MP: 58.91 BB (VPIP: 20.45, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has Ad Td
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (6.06 BB, 2 players) Th 3d Qh
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (6.06 BB, 2 players) 4c
BB bets 3.24 BB, Hero raises to 18.77 BB and is all-in, BB calls 15.53 BB

River : (43.61 BB, 2 players) Jh

BB shows 7c Qc (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 37%, Flop 74%, Turn 89%)

Hero shows Ad Td (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 63%, Flop 26%, Turn 11%)

BB wins 43.61 BB

Nothing so interesting to report from the $215; I didn’t win it.

The day off (it wasn’t a proper day off, as I did do some studying, but no playing) was nice. Emily and I had brunch at a cafe in the nearby town of Val-David. When we ordered, the server was friendly and patient with my limited French. I commented to Emily that she seemed to understand that my French was poor and be helping me along with simple words and phrasing, which I prefer to the approach more common in Montreal where people just start speaking English. It seems like out in the mountains many people still have learned English but are far less comfortable with it.

Anyway, just to prove me wrong, within minutes of my saying that the server returned to the table and said something long and complicated very quickly. I told her, “Sorry, my French is not great”, by which I meant only that I needed her to rephrase and speak more slowly, but she responded with, “Ah, OK, I am not so good in English but I will try.” And then she apologized that she’d forgotten to put our order in and it would still be a little while. Of course we were understanding, but probably she was nervous which was why she’d started speaking quickly.

Elsewhere, people were somewhat less friendly about it. I went with Emily to help her get a season pass for the regional park, and was prepared to conduct the entire transaction in broken French, translating for Emily when necessary. The woman switched to English when she saw me doing that, but she was kind of grudging about it, and made a comment at some point that, “It’s very hard for me, in English.” Which, again, I didn’t have any expectation that she speak English, only that she be patient with my French.

The grocery store is where I’m at my most comfortable, partly because not much speaking is required but also because I’ve got my routine down. Yes, I need a sac plastique. No, I don’t have a carte Métro. I’m sure it’s obvious that I’m not a fluent speaker, but it’s a perfectly fluid transaction. So after doing all of that in French, the woman looks at me over the rim of her glasses and says, “Thank you” in English like she’s caught me in some dirty secret.

There’s a nice bike path that runs through town called “Le P’tit Train Du Nord”, built on what used to be a railway. It’s very well maintained and quite popular in the summer. We got a few smiles while out on the trail but it was surprising how many people would pointedly avoid eye contact or even just stare without smiling when you gave them a little wave or head nod. So maybe it wasn’t the English, maybe the Quebecois just aren’t a friendly people (that would certainly accord with stereotypes I’ve encountered in the States).

Anyway, poker…

PokerStars has gotten a lot of criticism since Amaya took over (including from Talal Shakerchi). I think much of it is well-deserved and they are mostly full of shit when they try to sell changes that are obviously designed to increase rake as being “good for the game”. That said, their shift towards Progressive Knock-Out Tournaments does seem to be good for the game (if also good for Stars’ bottom line). These events routinely get way bigger fields than comparable Freezeouts at the same buy-in level. And at least for now, people play them badly.

I found myself in a rough spot early on, after cold four-betting Kings and getting a nightmare flop:

PokerStars – 300/600 Ante 75 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 88.29 BB (VPIP: 25.32, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 237)
MP: 64.14 BB (VPIP: 23.91, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 92)
MP+1: 75.05 BB (VPIP: 20.87, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 207)
MP+2: 74.09 BB (VPIP: 20.65, PFR: 15.22, 3Bet Preflop: 6.82, Hands: 92)
CO: 86.02 BB (VPIP: 21.59, PFR: 14.77, 3Bet Preflop: 9.30, Hands: 88)
BTN: 85.29 BB (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 4.88, Hands: 92)
SB: 90.07 BB (VPIP: 20.52, PFR: 14.66, 3Bet Preflop: 7.43, Hands: 888)
Hero (BB): 78.3 BB
UTG: 109.01 BB (VPIP: 16.16, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 99)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Kh Kd
fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 5.94 BB, fold, Hero raises to 18.52 BB, fold, BTN calls 12.57 BB

Flop : (40.66 BB, 2 players) Jc Qh 5s
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn : (40.66 BB, 2 players) Qd
Hero bets 12.2 BB, BTN calls 12.2 BB

River : (65.06 BB, 2 players) 8d
Hero checks, BTN bets 54.45 BB and is all-in, fold

BTN wins 65.06 BB

I may have overreacted to seeing a Q and a J on the flop, because CREV still thinks I should get the money in (a result that is, admittedly, sensitive to the assumption that Villain has a lot of AK in his range). I do, after all, have only a pot and a half in my stack upon seeing the flop. CREV also thinks flop is a mix but mostly a bet. Again, there’s a lot of equity to be denied to AK. It’s important to keep in mind that even with my blockers, there are 8 ways to have AK and only 6 ways for Villain to flop a set (I’m comfortable assuming he never has 55).

My plan was not to double buy (that is, to rebuy 10K chips for $215 rather than 20K chips for $430), because the add-on buys 20K chips for $215, which means that buying that extra 10K during the rebuy period is quite expensive. Your initial chips are expensive too, of course, but you can’t add on if you don’t have chips!

Eventually, though, I convinced myself that the players on my right had enough chips and were playing badly enough that I wanted to have more to invest against them. I’m not sure that was the right decision, but it paid off:

PokerStars – 125/250 Ante 30 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 91.93 BB (VPIP: 18.84, PFR: 11.94, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 69)
Hero (BTN): 80.09 BB
SB: 157.66 BB (VPIP: 18.92, PFR: 15.09, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 113)
BB: 177.09 BB (VPIP: 47.00, PFR: 27.00, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 100)
UTG: 40.52 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 22)
UTG+1: 43.26 BB (VPIP: 22.97, PFR: 10.64, 3Bet Preflop: 5.03, Hands: 359)
MP: 36.4 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 7.04, 3Bet Preflop: 5.41, Hands: 144)
MP+1: 79.88 BB (VPIP: 19.11, PFR: 12.20, 3Bet Preflop: 6.86, Hands: 246)
MP+2: 104.4 BB (VPIP: 38.16, PFR: 18.42, 3Bet Preflop: 9.38, Hands: 76)

9 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.58 BB) Hero has 3s 3h
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2.5 BB, MP+2 calls 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold

Flop : (10.08 BB, 3 players) 5h Qs 3c
MP+1 bets 5 BB, MP+2 calls 5 BB, Hero raises to 21.55 BB, fold, MP+2 raises to 101.78 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 55.92 BB and is all-in

Turn : (170.02 BB, 2 players) Jd

River : (170.02 BB, 2 players) Qh

MP+2 shows Kd Qc (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 48%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)

Hero shows 3s 3h (Full House, Threes full of Queens)
(Pre 52%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)

Hero wins 170.02 BB

I won more big pots with 66 vs 64 on 764dd (frankly that Villain overplayed his hand as well – I flatted his flop check-raise, and he overbet jammed a Qd turn!), and then a really big one getting QQ all in against AK and holding. After winning that huge flip – note this for when I start whining about losing flips – I was in second place overall. Eventually, though, I just blew up:

PokerStars – 1250/2500 Ante 325 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 43.44 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 65)
Hero (MP+2): 119.24 BB
CO: 10.53 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 5.65, Hands: 301)
BTN: 23.3 BB (VPIP: 20.27, PFR: 13.46, 3Bet Preflop: 8.72, Hands: 376)
SB: 43.79 BB (VPIP: 14.68, PFR: 9.67, 3Bet Preflop: 2.27, Hands: 542)
BB: 25.05 BB (VPIP: 17.35, PFR: 9.28, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 98)
UTG: 81.7 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 21)
UTG+1: 40.24 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.14, 3Bet Preflop: 5.22, Hands: 288)
MP: 31.2 BB (VPIP: 23.56, PFR: 17.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 452)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.67 BB) Hero has Ts 9d
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 1.78 BB, fold

Flop : (6.73 BB, 2 players) 9s 5h Ad
SB checks, Hero bets 2.02 BB, SB calls 2.02 BB

Turn : (10.77 BB, 2 players) 3d
SB bets 6.68 BB, Hero calls 6.68 BB

River : (24.12 BB, 2 players) 6h
SB bets 6.03 BB, Hero raises to 108.14 BB and is all-in, SB calls 26.66 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Ts 9d (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 43%, Flop 18%, Turn 5%)

SB shows 3s As (Two Pair, Aces and Threes)
(Pre 57%, Flop 82%, Turn 95%)

SB wins 89.5 BB

This isn’t even typically a hand I’d open from this seat, but the BB was quite tight. I just got it into my head from the flop that I was going to three barrels, which I think is a fine plan holding the 9 blocker, but I refused to re-evaluate after Villain took the lead on the turn.

Frankly, his bet is bad. All he has to do is check and call and he gets my stack when he’s going to get my stack. Donking on a card that really doesn’t change the board – even though it did improve his hand – throws up a red flat that ought to enable me to change course and fold, though I stubbornly ignored it. So that was frustrating.

After that it was pretty uneventful, with not too many opportunities presenting themselves and me slowly blinding down as we neared the bubble. I open jammed AK, got called by TT, and that was that.

I did manage a cash in the $530, though even that got a bit dicey. I got off to a bad start thanks to more stubbornness:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 160.07 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
UTG+1: 14.47 BB (VPIP: 25.31, PFR: 14.88, 3Bet Preflop: 4.02, Hands: 748)
MP: 259.15 BB (VPIP: 22.88, PFR: 15.52, 3Bet Preflop: 3.17, Hands: 119)
Hero (MP+1): 129.48 BB
MP+2: 79.47 BB (VPIP: 11.04, PFR: 8.18, 3Bet Preflop: 4.23, Hands: 163)
CO: 121.62 BB (VPIP: 26.23, PFR: 11.67, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 61)
BTN: 143.79 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
SB: 123.99 BB (VPIP: 20.80, PFR: 17.03, 3Bet Preflop: 8.27, Hands: 330)
BB: 121.79 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 8d 8c
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.79 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.79 BB

Flop : (7.2 BB, 2 players) 5h 2h 3c
BB checks, Hero bets 2.16 BB, BB raises to 6.1 BB, Hero calls 3.94 BB

Turn : (19.4 BB, 2 players) Ah
BB bets 6.94 BB, Hero raises to 23.59 BB, BB calls 16.64 BB

River : (66.58 BB, 2 players) Qs
BB checks, Hero bets 43.94 BB, BB calls 43.94 BB

Hero shows 8d 8c (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 82%, Flop 9%, Turn 6%)

BB shows 3d 3h (Three of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 18%, Flop 91%, Turn 94%)

BB wins 154.46 BB

This Villain was fishy enough that I think I can just fold flop. I told myself it could be a protection raise, and then the turn presented an irresistible bluffing spot. I still don’t regret firing away at turn and river, but I do think I should have folded the flop. Recognizing and exploitively folding against obviously strong lines from weak players is something I used to be more diligent about. I need to regain that discipline.

After that, it was standard stuff. I won some all ins, ran up a large stack, then lost a flip as the bubble approached. That left with me about 25bbs which I nursed until we were in the money. I found a spot to open jam about 10bb with Kh 9h from MP and was horrified when a player who’d been quite tight snap called from the HJ. I guess he was ready to gamble now that he’d cashed, though, because he had Qs Ts. The flop was all clubs and missed both of us. The turn was the Qc, but then the river was a fifth club so we ended up chopping. What a roller coaster!

The very next hand an early position player jammed 4bb, I reshoved AJo, someone else shoved, and then the BB, who was extremely short, called off the rest with his AJs. He actually made a flush to win the main pot, but I couldn’t outrun 88 for the much larger sidepot, so I finished with a min cash.

Still, I’ve cashed two of the eight WCOOP events I’ve played so far, and both felt like they could easily have been deeper runs (as did a few of the non-cashes). There’s a lot I’m doing that I’m really happy about – just got to find some discipline and some (more) rungood!

Edit: Taking today off. Was going to play the $1000 6-max shootout, but it’s capped at 216 runners and will probably be a tough field. The $215 8-game always sounds fun, but I think a day off will be more fun than (probably) busting early or (best case scenario) playing Razz until 2AM.

PokerStars – 500/1000 PL Hi (6 max) – Omaha Hi – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 48.94 BB (VPIP: 47.62, PFR: 23.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
SB: 122.09 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 21)
Hero (BB): 45.3 BB
UTG: 178.14 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
MP: 33.32 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
CO: 215.82 BB (VPIP: 47.62, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Js As 4d Qs
fold, fold, CO raises to 3.5 BB, fold, SB calls 3 BB, Hero calls 2.5 BB

Flop : (10.5 BB, 3 players) 4h 9d Tc
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn : (10.5 BB, 3 players) 5h
SB checks, Hero bets 10.5 BB, CO calls 10.5 BB, fold

River : (31.5 BB, 2 players) Jd
Hero checks, CO bets 31.5 BB, Hero calls 31.3 BB and is all-in

CO shows Kh 7s Ks 3h (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 57%, Flop 43%, Turn 68%)

Hero shows Js As 4d Qs (Two Pair, Jacks and Fours)
(Pre 43%, Flop 57%, Turn 33%)

Hero wins 94.1 BB

I made the money, surprising no one more than myself, and ultimately busted with dignity, holding a pair and a wrap against top two pair that turned a boat. I had to run the equity afterwards, but I got it in with about 62%, so can’t feel bad about that:

PokerStars – 8000/16000 PL Hi (6 max) – Omaha Hi – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 35.37 BB (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 4.55, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
Hero (CO): 46.58 BB
BTN: 72.41 BB (VPIP: 29.69, PFR: 14.06, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 128)
SB: 40.05 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 30)
BB: 65.48 BB (VPIP: 30.56, PFR: 17.36, 3Bet Preflop: 1.96, Hands: 147)
UTG: 43.88 BB (VPIP: 42.55, PFR: 21.28, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 47)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4h 3d 6d 7c
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.79 BB, BTN calls 2.79 BB, SB calls 2.29 BB, fold

Flop : (9.37 BB, 3 players) 6h 5c Qd
SB checks, Hero bets 6.18 BB, BTN raises to 27.92 BB, fold, Hero raises to 43.79 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 15.86 BB

Turn : (96.94 BB, 2 players) 6c

River : (96.94 BB, 2 players) Ah

Hero shows 4h 3d 6d 7c (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 44%, Flop 61%, Turn 0%)

BTN shows Kd As Qs 6s (Full House, Sixes full of Aces)
(Pre 56%, Flop 39%, Turn 100%)

BTN wins 96.94 BB

Although in retrospect maybe this just isn’t a good open from the CO? Like I said, undoubtedly lots of small mistakes.

I got trounced in the $1K in an interesting spot:

PokerStars – 175/350 Ante 45 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 178.74 BB (VPIP: 22.60, PFR: 15.46, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 209)
UTG: 237.43 BB (VPIP: 20.20, PFR: 13.07, 3Bet Preflop: 5.60, Hands: 307)
Hero (UTG+1): 147.77 BB
MP: 121.09 BB (VPIP: 27.81, PFR: 18.67, 3Bet Preflop: 14.07, Hands: 608)
MP+1: 117.71 BB (VPIP: 22.44, PFR: 15.81, 3Bet Preflop: 9.48, Hands: 259)
MP+2: 240.61 BB (VPIP: 9.82, PFR: 5.94, 3Bet Preflop: 1.89, Hands: 226)
CO: 64.04 BB (VPIP: 23.45, PFR: 16.25, 3Bet Preflop: 7.44, Hands: 293)
BTN: 135.27 BB (VPIP: 22.26, PFR: 18.96, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 276)
SB: 141.29 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.66 BB) Hero has Ah 8h
fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 2.28 BB, SB calls 1.78 BB, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (10.28 BB, 4 players) 8d 2c 7h
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 6.78 BB, fold, SB raises to 21 BB, fold, Hero calls 14.22 BB

Turn : (52.28 BB, 2 players) 7c
SB bets 35 BB, Hero raises to 124.36 BB and is all-in, SB calls 82.88 BB and is all-in

River : (288.03 BB, 2 players) 6h

SB shows 7s As (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 36%, Flop 8%, Turn 95%)

Hero shows Ah 8h (Two Pair, Eights and Sevens)
(Pre 64%, Flop 92%, Turn 5%)

SB wins 288.03 BB

Of course it looks bad that Villain hit a two-outer, but I think he played the hand well, and there are other ways for him to win besides binking. I like my flop defend. It’s a nasty spot, but I think given how often I’ll hold overpairs in this same spot, I should continue with this hand (which blocks 88 and 87s) and mostly dump those.

I thought of the turn as a better card than it probably was. Of course it makes sets/two-pair less likely, but I didn’t really consider that 7x would be a likely flop bluffing hand for Villain because he wants to block 77 and 87s. In retrospect, folding or even calling turn might well be better than sticking it in, even with a bounty on the Villain (which really isn’t likely to come into play, come to think of it).

I had a tricky spot in the $500 that I’m still not sure about:

PokerStars – 400/800 Ante 100 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 143.26 BB (VPIP: 21.55, PFR: 19.25, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 232)
UTG+1: 49.15 BB (VPIP: 22.62, PFR: 13.41, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 84)
MP: 79.88 BB (VPIP: 19.31, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 6.85, Hands: 668)
Hero (MP+1): 58.58 BB
CO: 62.9 BB (VPIP: 25.84, PFR: 21.32, 3Bet Preflop: 12.16, Hands: 332)
BTN: 86.71 BB (VPIP: 15.91, PFR: 10.13, 3Bet Preflop: 2.21, Hands: 398)
SB: 19.67 BB (VPIP: 21.78, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 9.55, Hands: 487)
BB: 68.82 BB (VPIP: 16.36, PFR: 12.79, 3Bet Preflop: 7.27, Hands: 276)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has 6d 5d
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (6.06 BB, 2 players) 4c 7d 9c
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB raises to 13.61 BB, Hero calls 9.61 BB

Turn : (33.28 BB, 2 players) 9s
BB bets 17 BB, Hero calls 17 BB

River : (67.28 BB, 2 players) Kd
BB bets 35.8 BB and is all-in, fold

BB wins 67.28 BB

It feels bad to call off so much with 6-high, but I still struggle to see a better option. The flop bet and call seem pretty clear-cut. Turn is tricky. Of course I could be in bad shape vs a 9, but I could also be very live against a flush draw, and if Villain doesn’t have the flush draw then I may get the opportunity to rep it if it comes in. I don’t think jamming the turn is any good, but I could certainly be convinced that it’s a fold.

I lost the rest with AK to 99 all in pre, nothing too exciting there.

I considered taking today off, but it’s dreary outside, so I’ll likely play the $215 rebuy.

Upon our arrival, I got probably my best opportunity ever to use all that French I studied some fifteen years ago. My experience in Montreal (and even in France) was that almost everyone spoke better English than I did French, but our host wasn’t comfortable in English, so she showed us around the house and she and I discussed some logistics in French. Fortunately she was patient and accommodating! To be honest, I don’t know how much the French even mattered, because Emily told me she was able to get the gist of almost everything despite speaking hardly a lick.

I max late registered the $200 Warm-Up shortly after our arrival and promptly ran my 20bb up to a top 10% stack. Then I ran AK into AA for most of my chips and lost the rest with 77 < 99 in a spot where we may have been close enough to the bubble for me to pass on my pair. Oh well.

The $500 6-max Progressive Knock-Out got off to a good start as well, with me collecting a bounty from a guy who just randomly open jammed 30bb UTG with A9o into my JJ. Then there was this hand, not a huge one but one of the more interesting I played yesterday:

PokerStars – 500/1000 Ante 125 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 58.95 BB (VPIP: 24.65, PFR: 16.59, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 216)
SB: 156.74 BB (VPIP: 26.87, PFR: 18.22, 3Bet Preflop: 7.62, Hands: 524)
BB: 99.7 BB (VPIP: 30.59, PFR: 17.16, 3Bet Preflop: 12.05, Hands: 170)
UTG: 71.55 BB (VPIP: 39.06, PFR: 21.88, 3Bet Preflop: 10.71, Hands: 65)
MP: 41.68 BB (VPIP: 21.04, PFR: 16.61, 3Bet Preflop: 7.93, Hands: 933)
Hero (CO): 90.44 BB

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has 2h As
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, BTN calls 2.28 BB, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (8.09 BB, 3 players) 4d 2c Jh
BB checks, Hero bets 2.43 BB, BTN calls 2.43 BB, BB raises to 9.27 BB, Hero raises to 17.98 BB, fold, fold

Hero wins 29.05 BB

I got a bit careless later, though, ultimately getting in too much with A9o on the Button vs a BB squeeze (in my defense, he had a decent bounty!) and then stubbornly refusing to fold Aces that I’d slowplayed pre-flop to a BB who’d pretty obviously flopped trips.

I want to save this hand from the $1K for the next time one of my students tells me he checked after flopping a strong hand because he wanted to induce a bluff:

PokerStars – 125/250 Ante 30 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 215.8 BB (VPIP: 53.85, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
BB: 179.85 BB (VPIP: 16.02, PFR: 11.52, 3Bet Preflop: 2.82, Hands: 207)
UTG: 204.52 BB (VPIP: 14.11, PFR: 8.02, 3Bet Preflop: 2.53, Hands: 165)
UTG+1: 193.04 BB (VPIP: 24.62, PFR: 17.50, 3Bet Preflop: 5.99, Hands: 535)
Hero (MP): 175.49 BB
MP+1: 207.92 BB (VPIP: 15.82, PFR: 11.95, 3Bet Preflop: 7.65, Hands: 496)
CO: 241.58 BB (VPIP: 26.92, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
BTN: 132.1 BB (VPIP: 38.46, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)

8 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.46 BB) Hero has 4d 4c
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, CO calls 2.28 BB, BTN calls 2.28 BB, SB calls 1.78 BB, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (12.36 BB, 5 players) 6c 4h 7d
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 8.16 BB, fold, BTN raises to 20 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 11.84 BB

Turn : (52.36 BB, 2 players) 6d
Hero checks, BTN bets 25 BB, Hero calls 25 BB

River : (102.36 BB, 2 players) Qd
Hero checks, BTN bets 84.7 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 84.7 BB

BTN shows Ah Jh (One Pair, Sixes)
(Pre 49%, Flop 4%, Turn 0%)

Hero shows 4d 4c (Full House, Fours full of Sixes)
(Pre 51%, Flop 96%, Turn 100%)

Hero wins 271.77 BB

Villain showed Ah Jh.

I chugged along with a top 15% stack for most of the first six hours before losing a big flip with JJ to AKs. I won a few flips after getting short to stay alive, but eventually lost AJ < QQ to finish off my first day in the WCOOP.

A few mistakes aside (which I don’t want to be too dismissive of – making fewer mistakes is a key tournament skill), I was pleasantly surprised with my play. I’d hardly played at all since WSOP, and although I’ve been studying a lot, there’s always the danger of either being rusty or making mistakes trying to implement new concepts that I’ve only studied in theory. I don’t feel like I feel into either of those traps yesterday, and in fact I was quite pleased with some of the adaptations I made after reading Matt Janda’s new No Limit Hold ‘Em for Advanced Players.

Fortunately, I managed to win the first few pots of the day, first with an open shove to take the blinds, then with an UTG raise which went uncontested, then calling a shove with AT in the BB to beat A9 from the SB for a full double.

After that, I was back in action. As I mentioned, I ended Day 1 with a major regret from the then-largest pot of the tournament, but I can honestly say that from Day 2 I can think of only very small things I wish I’d done differently. A few hands I’m proud of:

Bluff on the Bubble

We’re on the bubble, with 20 players remaining and 18 to be paid. Blinds are 1500/3000, and I raise to 6000 UTG with Tc 8c. The only player at the table to have me covered 3-bets to 12K (he said later this was a misclick and he meant to make it 17K, which I believe), and I call.

Flop (34K) Ks 9h 7h. I check, he bets 15K, I raise to 45K, he calls.

Turn (124K) 4h. I bet 45K, he calls.

River (214K) Qc. I shove about 120K, he folds AK and asks me to show. I oblige.

Better Bet Sizing Through Tells

Still on the bubble. Blinds 1500/3000. The player in the BB has only about 60K to start the hand. An active recreational player with a big stack raises to 7500 from the HJ. I have him covered and raise to 20K. A very tight player in the SB looks at his cards and instantly jams ~65K. I put him on KK at worst and am ready to fold, but then the original raiser calls, so I decide to see a flop.

Edit: I have 66!

Flop (~215K) 884r. Checks through.

Turn 4. Checks through.

River 6. Bingo. Original raiser checks, and I am trying to think about how much he might call just an Ace. In my head, I settle on a small number, 40K.

As I grab chips, he says “Dammit!” and kinda bangs the table. I know that sounds so blatant that it must be an act, but in the moment it really felt like genuine frustration at the fact that he knew I was about to put him in a tough spot. This suggested to me that he would actually consider calling a larger bet, so I bet 75K. After much agonizing, he called with an Ace. The all in player had AA, so I scooped a big one there.

Bluff Catching at the Final Table

Recent podcast guest Chase Bianchi was at the final table of 10 with me (and recent podcast guest Elena Stover finished 12th).

Blinds are 2500/5000. UTG1 limps, Chase limps in MP3, the SB folds, and I check my option with the mighty 42o.

Flop (22,500) Q54r. Checks to Chase, who bets 12,500. I raise to 30K, UTG1 folds, and Chase calls. Lots of good things can happen when I raise. Although I may well have the best hand (I don’t think Chase needs much at all to stab at this), it benefits a lot from protection. It’s even possible that I can push UTG1 off of a better pocket pair and get called when I’m ahead against Chase, if he has a draw or just a random float.

Turn (82,500) 5. I bet 45K. This is actually a pretty nice card for me. Even though it reduces the combos of sets and two-pair that I could have, I still have all of them in my range, whereas Chase has only an ever-dwindling number of 54, 44, and 55, some of which I block (suits are actually relevant here, as I imagine he might limp 54s but not 54o, but I don’t remember them). I don’t know how much Qx or 4x he’s limping, and the turn makes 5x less likely for him.

He calls. I now think his range consists of 76, Qx, pocket pairs, 54, 55, and 44 (at least some of which may check the flop). My plan is to check-call river if the straight draw misses, as I don’t think he has much incentive to jam a better pair for value.

River (172,500) 2. I check, he jams 98K, I call, and he shows 97s, which quite surprising to me. I don’t recall whether he had a backdoor flush draw on the flop, but he definitely did not have a flush draw on the turn, so I guess he just thought he was going to straight up own me. Whoops!

In addition to giving me a comfortable chip lead at the final table, this call had several good effects. It eliminated one of my toughest opponents, and it sufficiently awed most of the table such that they were not inclined to mess around with me.

The Rest

We got down to five-handed with me, a satellite qualifier, a guy named Steve who knew me from Tournament Poker Edge, a likely pro from Michigan, and a guy named Carlos Chadha – more on him in a moment.

The satellite qualifier was absolutely unwilling to put his chips in without a top 5% hand, pot odds be damned. He eventually even folded his SB, leaving himself with just three ante chips. Amazingly, he kept picking up AQ and winning with it to stay alive. Eventually, he busted in 5th place.

The kid from Michigan seemed good-natured at heart, so maybe he was just a bit tilted, because on this particular evening he was acting like a salty circuity grinder. He was the second shortest stack at the table, which meant he was handcuffed by the presence of the satellite qualifier who just wouldn’t die. He was getting frustrated at the guy’s abject refusal to put money in the pot and started just openly commenting on how bad some of his folds were. I was happy to see him go out in 4th.

As I mentioned, Steve knew me from Tournament Poker Edge. Carlos, as it turned out, knew me from Poker Savvy Plus, a pre-Black Friday training site I worked for for several years. He was old school and, now, a high roller. Literally, a super high roller. This $570 was the smallest live tournament he’d ever deigned to play. But he was in the area, and he’d never won a live tournament, and he really wanted to do so.

Much as I hate to admit it, I doubt I was the best player out of the three of us. Carlos had an aura of confidence and deep thought about him, and I never saw him miss a trick. Actually, that’s not quite true. He once called down with an unimproved K2 vs Steve, only to find that Steve was indeed bluffing… with a better King! But I mean, if the biggest “mistake” you’re making is correctly identifying a bluff and calling down with King-high….

A Hero Check

We passed chips back and forth for over three hours. Really the only interesting pot I was involved in began with me raising the button (sorry, I don’t recall the stakes – couldn’t keep notes well while playing short-handed) with Kd Qd. Carlos called in the SB, and Steve called in the BB.

Flop As Td 6c. Checks around.

Turn Jd. Bingo. Carlos checks, Steve bets 75K, I raise to 175K with about 325K behind, Carlos folds, and Steve calls.

River Tc. Certainly not what I wanted to see. I watched Steve like a hawk as the river card came down, and to his credit, he didn’t give anything away as it fell, nor as he checked. Not a lot of people can so casually react to such a significant card with so much on the line, and it was only for that reason that I even considered betting the river. I just couldn’t figure what he could call with, as I think he would have re-raised pre-flop with AK/AQ, A6 and J6 got counterfeited, and from the way he called the turn I didn’t really think he had a bare Ace. I checked and allowed my pride in finding that check to counteract my disappointment in seeing Steve roll AT for a full house.

The End

I eventually busted Steve when he jammed ATs on the button and I woke up with QQ in the SB. That left me heads up with Carlos with nearly even stacks, something like his 1.1M to my 1M. That was only 20 big blinds, so there wasn’t much room to play.

I was hoping I might at least be the more experienced heads up player, but apparently Carlos was an online heads up pro for a while. He certainly seemed to know what he was going on a 20BB stack, which to be honest that part of my game is not particularly tight. I haven’t put much thought into a button limping range, for instance.

It was over quickly, though. Just a few hands in, he limped the button for 50K, and I, now with an 18BB stack, raised to 175K with A7s. He jammed, I called, and he showed me TT. Although I turned a flush draw, I didn’t get there on the river, and Carlos won his first-ever live poker tournament!

Although A7s is a strong hand with just a single opponent and 18BBs, against a weaker player, I might not force the action pre-flop. Against Carlos, though, I didn’t feel like there was any room to pass on thin edges, so I went for the raise-call. Basically it was just a cooler, which in all likelihood was how the match was going to end one way or the other.

We finished play around 12:30, nearly 12 hours after we started, but there’s no rest for the weary. The $1500 Main Event starts today!

We created this video as part of a year-end fundraising campaign for the Bay Area Urban Debate League.  To unlock more videos like this one and get a shot at some great prizes, please donate to the campaign now!

In practice, though, it’s easy to end up doing either too much or too little bluffing, especially on the river. It’s easy to say either, “this is a good card, bombs away” with all of your bluffs, or to say, “eh, I don’t think he’s folding,” and check back all of your bluffs.

That’s all well and good if you’re confident in those reads, but against a tough opponent, it shouldn’t be easy to make such sweeping generalizations. When thinking about which hands to give up with, it’s good to choose candidates that block Villain’s folding range, just as you want to block his calling range when you fire that third barrel. Here, I bet a big draw on the flop and turn, but on the river, I give up, because I expect that much of Villain’s range for calling turn and folding river will consist of pair-plus-draw hands, and my own draws make it hard for him to have those.

PokerStars – $203+$12|250/500 Ante 65 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 13.38 BB (VPIP: 31.22, PFR: 6.91, 3Bet Preflop: 1.22, Hands: 189)
SB: 134.56 BB (VPIP: 19.00, PFR: 14.51, 3Bet Preflop: 4.65, Hands: 326)
BB: 78.9 BB (VPIP: 21.95, PFR: 15.66, 3Bet Preflop: 2.41, Hands: 205)
Hero (UTG): 86.55 BB
CO: 11.42 BB (VPIP: 17.09, PFR: 9.26, 3Bet Preflop: 2.17, Hands: 118)

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.15 BB) Hero has As Ts
Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.28 BB, SB calls 1.78 BB, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (9.77 BB, 4 players) 3s Qc 9s
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 4.88 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 4.88 BB

Turn : (19.54 BB, 2 players) Jd
BB checks, Hero bets 11.72 BB, BB calls 11.72 BB

River : (42.98 BB, 2 players) 3c
BB checks, Hero checks

BB shows Kd Qs (Two Pair, Queens and Threes)
(Pre 38%, Flop 56%, Turn 64%)

Hero mucks As Ts (One Pair, Threes)
(Pre 62%, Flop 44%, Turn 36%)

BB wins 42.98 BB

I got off to a good start in the $1500 but ran into some annoying spots. At 150/300, the CO, the weakest player at the table, opened to 1000, and I had KJs on the button. Based on the size of his raise, I figured he was strong, which means calling at all here is borderline, but I was trying to get into pots with him, I had position and a reasonable hand, and we were about 80BBs deep, so I hopped in there.

Then the SB, a player who’d mostly been quite passive, suddenly got it into his head to squeeze. Maybe I was just salty, but just the way he looked at us and gathered his chips, I really didn’t think he had anything. He made it 3500, the CO happily shoved, I folded, and the SB quickly folded as well. I have no idea what prompted him to do that,

The very next hand, a tilted player in early position opened to 875, the HJ (the CO from the previous hand) called, and I called QTs on the CO. The flop came KJ6 with one of my suit, the original raiser checked, and the HJ made a big bet, like 80% pot. Obviously I wasn’t getting immediate odds to draw, but I figured my implied odds would be very good if I hit, so I called. Then the original raiser went into the tank, and it was instantly obvious he was strong and looking to check-raise. He drew the process out for over a minute, stacking and restacking chips and trying to act torn about his decision, which only made it more obvious that he was strong. He raised, the HJ instantly folded, and I eyed his stack but had no choice to fold myself, as he was going to have less than a pot-sized bet behind.

A while later, at a different table, at the 250/500 level, I opened to 1100 with K6o in the CO. Not exactly standard, but the BB seemed very amateurish. Only he called.

The flop came Q63 with two clubs, and I held the Kc. He checked, I bet 1100, and he raised to 5000. My plan, after betting so small on the flop, was to call a check-raise, but I wasn’t expecting such a large one. I think I should have just folded right there, but I called.

The turn was another Q, and he jammed for a pot-sized bet. It seemed crazy not to call him when the only hand I was worried about just got less likely, but I took my time and tried to get a read. Based on his body language, he seemed quite comfortable, and I ultimately folded.

Part of me definitely feels like if I’m not calling a shove on that turn then there’s really no point in calling the flop. Then the other part of me argues that what my flop call bought me was the opportunity to make a read-based decision on the turn, and I (hopefully) made the right one.

The very next hand, I had about 28BB, and the action folded to me in the SB with 77. I’ve been experimenting with open limping a lot from the SB, and I think this is a good spot for it. There aren’t hands I want to open jam for this amount, and there are a lot of hands I don’t really want to raise-call or raise-fold for this amount, which means there’s a lot of merit to a limping strategy. With 77 specifically, raising and getting called doesn’t even produce that great of a situation, as most flops will be difficult to play.

My plan was to shove over a raise, but the BB took that play away from me by shipping his stack. Although I wasn’t eager to race for such a large pot, I thought he would rarely jam hands that dominated me but jam some hands I dominated, including smaller pairs and Ax, which makes calling pretty profitable if high-variance. I called and lost a race to T9s.

Gonna play the $1000 Turbo NLHE today.

Blinds 25/50

MP opens to 150, Villain calls in CO, I call 66 on the Button, and BB calls.

Flop (625) Js 8d 6h Two checks, the CO bets 325, I raise to 800, two folds, and he calls.

Turn (2225) 3s. He checks, I bet 1500, he thinks a bit and calls

River (5225) Qd. He looks at my stack, then puts me all in for 4500. Admittedly, 66 is basically the nuts here, as I can’t see anyone good just check-calling 1500 on the turn with T9. Even spades probably plays better as a raise, especially given his incentive to get all in against me and put my bounty in play.

I was pretty sure I was going to call, but I took my time anyway, and I guess that made him assume that his QJ was good. I do think that especially in a bounty, where he has so much to gain by stacking me, he does make sense for him to shove the river, but it’s not a play a lot of people will make it, and I do try to think it through before making or calling large bets.

There were two other interesting spots, both at the 75/150/25 level. In the first, the HJ, who seemed just a touch too active but not overall a bad player, opened to 400, and I called with Qs Ts on my BB. He had a little over 7K behind, and I had about 11K.

Flop (1125) Qh 9c 7h. I considered donking here but ultimately checked. He bet 550, and I called.

Turn (2225) 5d. I checked, he bet 1500, I shoved, and he called with Ah 6h and hit the Th on the river.

In the second, the UTG player (at a 10-handed table) opened to 375, and I called with Ac Jh in the BB. I had about 3300 behind, and he had more than 30K, enough to still cover the entire table even if he doubled me.

Flop (1075) Kc Tc 5d. I actually bet 600, planning to fold to a raise. Even with his stack, this player seemed extremely passive and cautious, so I thought he would overfold and also shove much less often than he should. My hand is a decent one for betting because it’s equity is not so bad against a calling range but poor enough against a shoving range that I don’t lose a lot by folding. Plus I can jam turned clubs. However, the hand isn’t strong enough to check-call or check-raise, which means I usually just lose my equity if I check. Anyway, Villain called.

Turn (2275) Ah. Given Villain’s passivity, as well as the bounty factor, I just shoved. He reluctantly called Kc Q and my hand held up for a double.

I did a little GTORB analysis on both of these hands, and although that can’t take into consideration the very important bounty factor, it did reveal some slightly interesting stuff. Most notably, both of these players have such significant range advantages that I should very rarely (in practice, probably just never) donk bet in either spot.

I also wasn’t sure what GTORB would suggest for Villain’s Ah 6h. On the one hand, it’s obviously a huge draw, but on the other, with stacks being what they are, I thought Hero might often shove, putting Villain in a tough spot with a big draw.

Turns out that GTORB has Villain betting all of his A6 on the turn, with or without a heart draw, and always folding to a raise (though Villain’s call may not be wrong, as the bounty gives me incentive to raise a wider range, possibly including some dominated draws). And the Hero actually only check-raises about 10% (QT strictly prefers calling, though again, bounty may well change that). I guess it’s significant that the Hero generally raises his flopped monsters, and this is not a turn card that creates a lot of new monster hands (this is why A6 is a good betting hand, because it blocks 86), which means that Hero is pretty capped and the Villain can bet draws with abandon.

Tomorrow, I’ll most likely play the Venetian $1600.

Blinds were still 25/50, and I opened to 150 with Kc Qc in the HJ. The CO, SB, and BB all called.

The flop came 975 with two clubs, and the blinds checked. I certainly wouldn’t just c-bet arbitrarily into three opponents here, but with two overs and a flush draw, it’s an easy bet. I bet 450, and only the CO called.

The 2h turned, and on such a blank card, I think he’s more or less capped out at one pair, maybe TT or JJ at best and almost always weaker than that, so it’s a great spot for me to bombs away. I bet 1500, and he quickly called. The fact that he didn’t even consider raising made me even more certain that the didn’t have two-pair or a set.

So, I didn’t have to sweat a full house on the 9c river. I also didn’t think he’d call the turn with bare flush draws, at least not so quickly, so the only better hands in his range figured to bet Ac 8c and Ac 6c. I expected him to have T9 and 98 more frequently, and be unable to fold trips. I bet 4000, and he called with Ac 8c.

Nothing of great interest happened after that. I got a double up with AQ by convincing my opponent to spaz with 77 on a Q9xxx board.

Once I was down to 20 blinds, I wasn’t getting any shoving spots. Mostly my cards were bad, but also there was a guy with a big stack on my right who’d decided that he should play more than half the hands he was dealt. I’m honestly not sure he was joking/posturing when he wondered out loud whether he should call my 11BB UTG shove blind (I had AJo, and he folded).

A few hands later he opened to 1100 on the button, which it was really hard for me to imagine him folding a button, so I had a pretty easy shove for 5K or so with 22 in the SB. He called with A4o to bust me.

After the tournament I went and hung out with Carlos for a bit at the Tournament Poker Edge booth, then decided to check out the cash game scene at the Rio.

It truly does seem to get worse there every year. Now there are no chip runners (which, I realize, may not be their fault, but it sucks either way), which means that when they open a new game it takes a long time to start because people have to go wait in line at the cage, buy chips, then take them to the table, and of course no one wants to sit at the table waiting for others to show up, and certainly not come over from an already-running game to get the new one started, so it’s just a slow process and I can only imagine that the most impulsive (ie most desirable to have at your table) players are not sticking around for all that.

My first table was pretty boring, everyone seemed decent enough and the average stack was less than $2K, which is quite small for an uncapped $5/$10.

I was about to quit when my table change came through and I landed at a new table where my $6500 made me just the third largest stack! Had there been chip runners, I would have added on, but as it was I decided just to make do with 650 big blinds.

It was a fun game, nobody spewing but nobody playing particularly good deep-stacked poker, and I was winning solidly. Then, literally the hand before I was going to quit:

I open 22 to $40 UTG (believe we were 7-handed at the time), and four people call. The flop comes K72r. I bet $150, and only the button called. I had about $7500 at the time, and she covered me.

The turn was another K. I checked, figuring a check-raise could get more money in against a K and also give her a chance to bluff/protection bet weaker hands. She checked behind.

The river card was something small (not a 2!), and with $500 in the pot, I threw out a $1K chip. Overbetting was not unprecedented for me, and none of those hands had yet gone to showdown.

She asked if that was a $500 chip, the dealer told her it was $1000, and then she nodded and said, “All in.” Faced with calling $6K to win $8500, I really don’t think is a tough fold at all. I’m uncapped, which means I have both nut hands and better bluff-catchers, not that I would expect to see many bluffs here anyway.

Even though that basically wiped out my profit for the night, I quit feeling pretty good about myself. Among other things, I probably would have lost my ass if she’d bet the turn!

For some crazy reason the Monster Stack is not a re-entry, so I’m just going to play cash tonight, probably at Bellagio, and then hit up the $1K Turbo WSOP event tomorrow morning.

Timestamps

0:30 hello and welcome
11:30 strategy

Strategy

Hand 1

2/5 game at the Aria. I have a stack of about 1400. Villain covers.

Villain raises from UTG+1 to 20, gets two callers. I have pocket aces in the BB. I raise to 85. Villain calls, callers fold.

Pot is now about $205. Flop 345 rainbow. Both players check.

Turn 2. I check, Villain bets $150, I call.

Pot is $505. River Q. I check, Villain bets $330.

Hand 2

$2/$5 live game. Villain has $500, Hero coves. Hero raises to $25 with AQss. Tilted guy re raises to $100. Hero calls.

Flop is Q74 two diamonds.  There is $200 in the pot and he leads out for a pot sized $200 bet. Hero calls.

Turn is 7h. Villain shoves $200, Hero calls.

For every $500 raised, I’m releasing a poker strategy video that’s at least an hour long (and knowing me, they’ll be longer – blame debate again for my motormouth!). Plus, every person who donates at least $10 will be entered in a drawing to win great prizes like a free custom video, a free month at Tournament Poker Edge, a free item from Nitcast.com, and more!

We’re over $1500 already, and I’m working to get these videos out as quickly as I can. The first one, where I basically berate Gareth Chantler for 90 minutes about his play in an Ante Up event, is available now!

I was responsible for one of the eliminations that burst the bubble. Blinds were 5K/10K/500, and the small blind open jammed something like 85K into my big blind, where I held 99. I called and busted him to the delight of my tablemates, some of whom also seemed a bit surprised by my call. Although I wasn’t thrilled, mostly because of how tight I thought he might be shoving on the bubble, I did have him covered with enough left to last me more than an orbit, so I was confident I could fold into the money even if I lost. As it turned out, he had Q2s, which of course if he’s jamming that wide it’s a very profitable call.

I picked up another big pot jamming my 20BBs into a 4x open from UTG and a UTG+1 call. Given that it was a ten-handed table, I expected the original raise to show extreme strength, but I’d also seen enough nitty folds to believe that I might actually get him off of some pairs or even another AK. A player in MP took two minutes to fold his hand because he hadn’t realized the action was on him, and yet somehow this still hadn’t given UTG enough time to think because he then tanked for at least two minutes before I called the clock on him. He ended up showing JJ to the player on his right before folding, and UTG+1 folded as well, so I increased my stack by about 50% without a showdown.

A phrase I hear a lot is “I don’t want to flip at this stage of the tournament.” Well, I don’t want to flip either, but I also don’t want to give away 2.5 BB (a rough estimate of my edge assuming I were to get all in with AK vs a pocket pair in the preceding hand) plus fold equity when I’ve only got 20 to begin with. It never ceases to amaze me how many people enter tournaments, the furthest thing from a sure thing poker has to offer, and proceed to demand near-certainty before they’ll take a significant risk. A lot of run good went into my winning this tournament, but the biggest skill edge I had consisted in the willingness to take these risks as well as the wherewithal to exploit opponents who wouldn’t.

The next time I got AK, I was in the BB. A player in MP opened, I jammed, and he ended up calling it off with KJo (he had me well covered, not that that makes it a good call), and I held.

This all goes to show the importance of having a solid theoretical understanding of concepts like expected value and game theory rather than just playing by feel. I can promise you there were plenty of situations where it felt “icky” to stick my stack in with AK or to min-raise as a bluff off of a 17 BB stack, but I was able to override my natural risk aversion because I understood the math well enough to know that these simply had to be profitable moves.

This also kept me from getting frustrated when these moves didn’t work out. For example, the players on my immediate left were making no secret of the fact that they were just waiting for strong hands and were not going to bluff. Consequently, I was min-raising any two if I got the opportunity to open from the button, even when I only had 14 or 15 BBs. Once, the BB called this raise and bet out on an Ace-high flop that missed me entirely. I folded, and he showed me AQ, which, far from tilting me, made me feel even better about my open with 83o, even though it had cost me about 15% of my stack.

It seemed like what most of these guys wanted was just for everyone to get out of the way so they wouldn’t get drawn out on when they had a monster. I was happy to oblige them in exchange for far more than my share of the pots where no one had much of a hand.

Predictably, the nits on my left were eventually replaced with (slightly) better players, and I did open fold T4o on the button and Q2s in the CO when I had a barely 10 BB stack. That same orbit, I picked up A4o with six players to act behind me. My push/fold game is a little rusty but I believe this is a fold at equilibrium. In this case, though, I believed everyone would be tight enough with their calling to make it a good shove, and it got through.

The very next hand I picked up A5s, which again would most likely be an equilibrium fold now that my stack was larger, but which I think was a clear shove given the opponents. I ended up getting called and sucking out on 77, to the shock of much of the table. I distinctly overheard someone mutter “What is he doing?” The general consensus seemed to be that I was simply reckless, which again reflects completely the wrong approach to late game tournament play, especially in an event as top heavy as this one was. Believe it or not, there were people openly sweating $600 prize increases with thousands already locked up and $125K up top. Short effective stacks make aggressive stealing a high variance proposition, but they don’t make it less correct.

I was also the player to burst the final table bubble, calling a 10BB shove from the SB with 22 and beating her QJs. There was once again some shock expressed at this call, which one onlooker described as “Spartan”.

The Final Table

One of the many ways I ran well was with regard to the seat draw at the final table. Contrary to what I reported on Twitter, I entered as the chip leader. The next biggest stack was clear across the table from me, and the best of my opponents, a guy named Stuart who had I think the fourth largest stack, was on my immediate right. There was an accomplished tournament player with a resteal stack on my immediate left, so that kept me in line initially, but other than that things were laid out pretty ideally for me.

We were required to step away from the final table to use phones, and even when I wasn’t involved in the pot I wanted to pay close attention, so I wasn’t able to take notes as I had during the rest of the tournament. Apologies in advance: details going forward will be a bit more spotty.

That said, I don’t think I contested a single pot in the first orbit and a half, so when the action finally folded to me in the CO, I couldn’t resist opening K5o. The aforementioned player on my left moved all in, and I had to fold. I don’t know what I had, but it was a good spot for him to shove almost anything, so I redoubled my resolve not to get too far out of line pre-flop, especially in obvious spots.

The next pot I opened was with As 9c UTG, once we were nine-handed. I got three calls and a Js 8h 3s flop and checked, fully intending to give up. However, the action checked to an amateur on the button who’d been openly bragging about his big laydowns and overbetting and then showing his big hands. He bet 200K, about the half the pot, and I went into the tank.

I have a habit of always considering my options when the action is on me, even when the right play seems automatic. In doing so, it occurred to me that a small check-raise might garner an absurd amount of respect from this player, even though it would be a strange line inconsistent with how I’d play many if any strong hands. I had him covered and there were several shorter stacks out there. My biggest fear, really, was that one of the other players in the pot would sniff out what I was up to and shove. However, I thought that was probably giving them too much credit, and besides they’d have to sweat the button actually waking up with a hand and busting them, whereas my check-raise could risk very little. I made it 450K, and everyone folded. The button gave me a bit of sweat but ultimately told me he was folding JT.

I was already pulling well ahead of the next biggest stack when I opened QTo in early position, mostly because the same amateur player was in the big blind. The other big stack called on the button, and the BB called as well. The flop came JTT and I bet 200K into 500K. I like this sizing in a vacuum, but for expoitive reasons I think 300K would have been better. Anyway, the button called and the BB folded.

The turn was an 8, and with an SPR of roughly 2, I found myself in an awkward spot. I doubted that I could get two more bets out of worse. I hadn’t observed much of this player’s behavior, but in this tournament in general I’d seen a lot of big “protection” bets from marginal hands that just wanted to take the pot down, so I figured I’d give him a chance to do something like that. I checked, he bet 450K, and I put him all in for about three times that. He tanked for a long time and reluctantly folded.

That gave me a commanding chip lead, close to half the chips in play at an eight-handed table. What set me back was a bad beat from the aforementioned amateur the next time he was in the BB. I opened with AJo, a medium stack called in middle position, and the BB, now short stacked, called. The flop came A96 with two diamonds, and he open shoved for about the size of the pot. Of course I called, and to my surprise, MP called as well.

That worried me a bit, but ultimately I just couldn’t see him playing AQ or AK this way pre-flop, nor two-pair or better on the flop. So, I jammed the turn, and after a long tank he folded what he told me was A6. The BB had a flush draw that got there on the river, so that set me back.

To make matters worse, Stuart, by far the toughest of the remaining players, doubled through the same guy by getting it in 77 vs AA and spiking a 7.

On the plus side, this created a new dynamic. I still had him covered, but he was the second largest stack, and given that he was also the second best player, he had a lot of incentive not to tangle with me. I started leaning hard on his BB.

Somewhere in there, I picked up AA in the SB when someone open shoved in front of me, but the board ran out a straight and I chopped with his AQ. The crowd erupted, but I knew enough to treat this as completely irrelevant. I don’t even consider it bad luck. The action would have gone down exactly the same if he’d had AA and I’d had AQ. If you insist on thinking in terms of luck, you can say that I was lucky to cooler him pre-flop and he was lucky to escape with half. You’re looking for excuses to feel sorry for yourself if consider this an unlucky outcome.

Speaking of luck, I busted the player who’d entered the final table second in chips when I opened KJ and got a QT9 flop. I can’t fault him for jamming over my flop bet with an A5s that flopped a flush draw, but I don’t think calling my pre-flop raise with it was such a good idea.

That left the player on my left as one of the shortest remaining stacks, which actually made it tougher for me to put pressure on him, as he had less to lose. I still planned to jam on him pretty aggressively given the opportunity, but I twice got hands so bad that I had to give him walks. The third time it folded to me in the SB, I jammed about 10BBs with J8o and he woke up with AKo to double through me.

Heads Up

Meanwhile, Stuart was busy winning a flip against one of the weakest remaining players plus a couple of medium-sized pots against me, putting the two of us virtually even. Thankfully, I busted the other two remaining players and entered heads up with something like 60% of the chips in play.

A few people suggested a chop both at the start of the final table and when we got to five- and four-handed, but neither Stuart nor I was interested at the time. First place paid about twice second, a difference of nearly $60,000, and I might have considered chopping a portion of that if Stuart had suggested it. That said, I did expect to have a sizable edge, as even many otherwise good players lack heads up experience, so I wasn’t all that eager to chop. I figured I’d let Stuart be the one to bring it up, as that would give me an edge in negotiating, but he never did.

The match was over almost before it began. On the third hand, I three-bet him with AQs, he jammed K2o, and my hand held up.

I have a bit more to say about the aftermath of victory, but this post is plenty long enough already, so I’ll save that for tomorrow.

Gamble Gamble

It worked out well that we were going to skip this week, because I was busy winning the $1000 Battle of the Bay tournament at Lucky Chances last night! This annual event is the premier tournament at what is now my local casino, so although I’ve been playing cash there exclusively, I decided to make an exception for this.

I played Day 1A on Saturday and got off to a very nice start but eventually lost most of my chips with QT vs 99 on a J9x flop. The guy min check-raised the flop, took about forty seconds to call my shove (nitroll, not slowroll), then bragged to the guy sitting next to him that he knew I would shove because I was too aggressive and that’s why he raised me.

A few hands later I shoved my last 4.5 BBs with 73o on the button. This one was debated a bit on Twitter, and I agree that it’s not a shove in a vacuum, but I crunched some numbers on SB/BB calling ranges and feel good about jamming any two there. I beat the BB’s K4s, and he muttered something about “nice catch”, to which I responded, “Is this your first time playing poker, sir?”

This is really out of character for me, and I’m ashamed to tell you about it. In my defense, I wasn’t feeling well, but I also think tournaments, especially live tournaments, bring this out in me. I’m trying to play fewer of them for that reason.

To paraphrase Tommy Angelo, the pleasure/pain ratio is all out of whack in a tournament. I can shrug off a loss of a couple thousand dollars at a $5/$10 game with literally no problem. I’m not just putting on a stoic front, it truly doesn’t affect me, at least not until it happens a few sessions in a row. But there’s something about a tournament, the “one-and-done” nature of it I think, encourages that kind of emotional investment that, at least in my opinion, is really undesirable.

The pleasure I get from playing cash, especially a deep-stacked cash game, is akin to the pleasure of solving a puzzle. I enjoy the challenge of trying to construct the perfect ranges for a given spot, there’s a much stronger correlation (though far from 1:1, of course) between the quality of my decisions and the outcome of a given hand or session, and during and after the experience I feel stimulated intellectually.

The appeal that tournaments hold for me has a lot more in common with gambling. There’s certainly nothing more exciting in poker than getting deep in a big tournament, but ultimately it feels like I’m just chasing a high when I play them. That said, there are some really high-value tournaments out there, too good to pass up, and this was one of them.

Sunday Funday

I was sorely tempted not to re-enter on Sunday. As I mentioned, I was (still am, in fact – staying up late last night didn’t help) under the weather, and the tournament started at 9:30 AM. On top of that, I really had not enjoyed my play on Saturday at all. Ten-handed poker with shallow effective stacks and small antes (e.g. 200/400/25) is almost entirely devoid of strategic depth. It’s mostly just a game of waiting for cards. That’s not to say there’s no edge there, just that the edge doesn’t come from anything interesting. I don’t find it stimulating, I find it annoying and boring, which of course undermines the patience that is paramount in such a structure.

So, I nearly didn’t return on Sunday. One of the factors that put me over the top was that I really wanted to meet Neil Blumenfield, who is apparently a regular at Lucky Chances tournaments though he and I have yet to cross paths in person. He wasn’t there on Saturday, so I figured he would surely play Sunday.

He didn’t, but I did, and first place was a fine consolation prize. I got off to a good start, winning some big pots in the first level and winning a big one with 55 vs AJ and 54 on a J54 flop. I eventually got involved in a three-way all in that ended with my KK losing to QQ, and then it was back to grinding a short stack for me.

For all my disparagement of short-stacked poker, it turns out there are some big edges to be had when your opponents aren’t accustomed or adapting properly to it. The thing about a flagship tournament like this is that it’s a major event for a lot of the people playing it. They either won a satellite or ponied up the $1000 as a one-time splurge, and they’re risk averse in a way that you simply can’t afford to be when you’re grinding a 20BB stack. This enabled me to pick up a few pots I had no business winning and stay afloat despite dry spells and bad beats/coolers.

Triple Barreling Off a 20BB Stack

The best example was towards the end of the day, when our table was eight-handed. Blinds must have been 1200/2400, and the player on my right open limped off of a stack of 55K or so. There was nothing suspicious about this – even at this late stage, plenty of people were limping. I made the questionable decision to limp behind with 8s 7s and 48K in the hijack. I’m still not sure this is good, but I believed I could get away with it because everyone was so passive with regard to raising pre-flop, and I expected a big post-flop edge to compensate for the times I would have to fold to a raise (and, of course, the fact that I was putting in 5% of my stack with 8-high and no chance of winning pre-flop).

The action folded to the SB, who completed. The BB checked, so four of us saw a Qh 7c 3h flop. When everyone checked to me, I bet 4500, about 1/3 of the pot. This was primarily a protection bet, though it was already in the back of my mind that it might also become the first leg of a three barrel bluff.

The small blind and the MP limper both called, and the turn brought an offsuit 9. They checked to me again. In a heads up pot, I would have considered checking and trying to show my hand down, but with two people calling there was little chance my 7 was good. It might sound ridiculous to talk about running someone off of top pair with 20 BB effective stacks, but it seemed very plausible to me at the time. That’s how scared everyone was playing. They were all terrified to slowplay with a flush draw on the board, so their calls could only indicate a lack of confidence or an extremely strong hand, to which my 7 was a significant blocker. I bet 11K, still a small fraction of the pot, but I wanted to be sure to leave myself a meaningful river bet. They both called.

The river was an off-suit A (I would have given up a heart). They both checked, I jammed my last 30K or so, and they both folded. And that’s how you triple barrel off of a 20 BB stack in a multi-way pot.

Another Cheap Steal

The other fun one from Day One began with me opening 22 from the CO. The button and SB called. I don’t remember the level, but there was about 26K in the pot on the flop, which came AJ5. We checked it around. The turn was a 4, and the SB bet 6K, hardly a show of confidence. I also thought it was quite unlikely that the button was slowplaying anything. Everyone had been playing so straight-forwardly that I expected to get way too much credit for a monster, simply because no one else in the tournament seemed willing to take a line like this as a bluff, so I raised to 22K, and they both quickly folded, the SB flashing KJ as he did so.

After that I was card- and spot- dead for the rest of the night and ended up squeaking into the money with 123K and blinds about to go to 5K/10K. That’s not as bad as it sounds, as the average was about 200K, and only 43 players remained, with 40 to be paid. Still, my aspirations for Day 2 were not much higher than surviving the bubble and collecting enough of a prize to cover train fare, meals, and my two buy-ins.

I wasn’t alone in this regard. Another player, who actually had far more chips than I did and ultimately bubbled the final table, opened the pot on one of the last hands of the night. After he won, his wife scolded him from the rail, “Don’t play anything until you’re in the money!”

Support the Thinking Poker Podcast this holiday season by using our affiliate links when shopping on Amazon. You might also consider making a donation to the Bay Area Urban Debate League.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello and welcome
17:25 – Strat
32:39 – Assani

Strategy

$1/$2 NLHE, $300 effective stacks. Villain opens for $12, Hero calls next to act with 88.

Flop 865r. Villain bets $30, Hero calls.

Turn 4d , putting a second diamond. Villain bets 30 again, Hero shoves for $220 more. Villain folds QQ face up.

In a recent $5/$10/$20 session, I made quite a few of what might be considered “moves” or “fancy plays”. I called turn and river bets with Ace-high. I floated the flop with bottom pair and bluff-raised the turn. I turned a set into a bluff on the river. I four-bet someone with a 5 in my hand and was prepared to six-bet shove, had my opponent raised back.

Although I got the result I wanted in all but one of these spots, I’m not bragging. These plays were not the result of any “sick reads”. I was not especially in the zone that night, nor was I suffering from Fancy Play Syndrome. In fact, these plays are all part of what I consider ABC poker – the way I play when I don’t have a laser-sharp read on my opponent’s hand or what he’s going to do with it.

It seems to be a common belief that big bluffs and heroic calls require reads or other special justification, such as having a certain image or being stuck. Game theory suggests otherwise.

Pre-Flop

I’m increasingly convinced that this is a fold after all. A very rough estimate is that I have about 15% equity against the Villains’ ranges and need to realize about 80% of that to make money on the call. The fact that I got a well-above-average flop and still can’t find an especially profitable option is telling, as is the fact, pointed out by many, that even if my hand improves the implied odds are not that great.

Results

I’ll start with the results, because my own play is one of the lines I want to consider and dismiss. I raised to $600, Villain 1 called, and Villain 2 folded. The turn was an off-suit J, and we both checked. The river was an offsuit 9, and while I considered shoving, I decided not to do so for exploitive reasons. Villain 1 checked behind and won with QQ.

Bomb the Flop?

While my in-game thought process was admittedly sloppy, I don’t think that, “Someone clearly has top pair or better and they’ve see you bluff before, so don’t ever raise without a set” is the best way to approach the problem either. We’re quite deep, and even for the looser UTG1 player, putting in eleven times the pot with one pair when five people saw the flop is not going to be an automatic decision. If I’m going to raise sets/two pair here, then I should have a bluffing range as well.

It doesn’t necessarily follow that this hand belongs in that range, though. As Jeff G. astutely points out, “Given that hero is calling with 7h2h preflop, I think it’s a safe assumption that hero has every combo of set(9 combos), suited two pair(7), and flush draw(55!! minus any combos we 3bet pre, if any) in his range. So we definitely want to have a check/raise range in this spot however we can easily go overboard if we’re not selective in which draws to use to balance our value hands.”

He argues for using nut flush draws for this purpose, and I think that’s partially right. As deep as we are, nut draws are disproportionately valuable, and the Ace will frequently be live. However, it does block some of the weaker hands in UTG’s range, such as AK and AQ, that he might c-bet even for this sizing into this many people. Getting a fold from him on the flop is one of the best case scenarios, so blocking his most obvious folding hands isn’t great.

You also don’t want your bluffing range to be too dependent on a single card (the Ah, in this case), because a blocker-conscious opponent can use that information to his advantage. In other words, some players are actually savvy enough to call down more often with black Aces than with red Aces because the red Aces block some likely bluffing hands. So, I think there’s a case for raising at least some non-nut draws.

Other good candidates will be gutshots, both with and without flush draws. You have to be especially careful not to go overboard with the bare gutshots, but it’s important to look ahead to the scenario where Hero check-raises and a heart peals off. Many of you correctly anticipate that it will be hard to get paid with a low flush in this scenario, and the corollary to that is that you want to give yourself some bluffs in that scenario, as Matt argues in his very good comment. If your flop raising range is only flush draws and two-pair or better, then what’s your bluffing range on the Qh turn?

The bottom line is that although this is a good spot to raise some big draws, the fact that none of my outs are nutted makes this an unideal candidate for inviting such a large pot, and I have better bluffing candidates. So I want to at least rule out the play that I made, which was raising to $600, as a good option.

Fold the Flop?

Matt also says, “I don’t think folding right away is an option. Running some equities, I think we can expect to have in the neighborhood of 28% equity against both ranges; so although we should expect both Vs to be quite strong I think we most likely have enough immediate equity to continue.”

Chris C, however, argues that, “if we’re calling then we’re calling to improve to the best hand (since I don’t think bluffing is likely to be profitable here). But the strong ranges of the villains (each of which contains sets and lots of better flush draws, all of which leave us in terrible shape) means that we often *can’t* catch up to the better hand, and that we can never be confident about it even when we do. If we end up playing a big pot then we likely lose, and if we hit but then try and keep the pot as small as possible – well, that doesn’t seem too good either.”

I’m on Matt’s side, and I think Chris is conflating some disparate scenarios. Even if Hero has difficulty putting in stacks or even two big bets as a favorite on favorable turns, he should very profitably be able to put in one. That is, if a heart turns, check-calling one bet should be profitable, and calling a second might be a more-or-less neutral-EV proposition (which also means I won’t often face the second – it’s not common that 7h 2h is behind on a heart turn). If the turn is a heart and there is no bet, I can confidently value bet the river.

The prospects are even more favorable on 7 and 2 turns. I can confidently call at least one and often two bets on these turns, can bet the river if the turn checks around, etc. Because of the good immediate odds I’m getting, I don’t need hefty implied odds when I improve. I just need to have the best hand most of the time, which I will. In that case, either I won’t often end up playing a big pot, or I’ll often be ahead when I play a big pot. It can’t be the case that I’ll routinely face multiple big bets after improving my hand and also not be able to call those bets profitably – it just isn’t that easy to be ahead of 72 on a J622 board.

I think there’s a strong case for calling, but there’s one other interesting line that one of you hinted at but no one suggested (nor did it occur to me at the time).

Small Raise?

A big part of the reason why I don’t like bombing the flop is that it sets up an easy and obvious strategy for an opponent holding an overpair or a Jack, which is to call the raise, fold if a heart comes, and call down otherwise. I was somewhat lucky that the turn was a scary enough card for my opponent that he gave me a free river, because I don’t think I could have profitably bet or check-called any turn that didn’t improve my hand. That’s in part because, given how low the SPR was at that point, most players facing a turn bet from a draw-heavy range will correctly shove rather than call if they continue to a bet.

Raising a small amount on the flop in order to deter a turn raise and give me room for a meaningful river shove is an interesting idea, though. Also, as James points out, “Both players calling your raise doesn’t change your equity in the hand (let’s say it’s 40% in the 3-way pot) vs you just calling.” I don’t think this was the point he was getting at, but in fact raising and getting called in two spots is better for me than just calling – I am 40% to win and getting 2:1 on my money. This is the kind of spot that an experienced limit player would probably recognize more quickly, because it’s common to raise hands with less than 50% equity in multiway pots in those games, but it comes up far less often in NLHE. Here, though, if I can’t fold out both players, my next preference is to fold neither. The result I got, and the one I think I’ll commonly get, was the worst.

Leo suggests raising “to something like $420…. The plan is to barrel off here on bricks, targeting overpairs, top pairs, and better flush draws that have paired up.” That would have been an interesting option, and I wish I’d considered it. Maybe next time!

Thanks again everyone.

Folding is an Opportunity, Not a Cost

Props to those of you who mentioned the relevant toy game from Mathematics of Poker. That was the first thing I thought of when playing this hand, and it was the impetus for my posting it.

For those who aren’t familiar, Chen and Ankenman demonstrate that when you have a big draw against a made hand, it can actually be correct for you to move all-in on the flop, knowing you are behind and have no fold equity, rather than give your opponent the opportunity to blow you off of your equity on blank turns.

The critical difference between that toy game and this hand is that in the toy game, we assume that the made hand knows his opponent is drawing and can play perfectly on the turn. In other words, not only can he force the draw out on blank turns, but he can also correctly check and fold on turns that sharply improve his opponent’s equity. No commenters suggested that Villain might check and fold a 6 or a heart on the turn with any hand that would have called a flop shove, and rightfully so.

There was, however, a lot of talk about how Hero will “have to” fold some turns, as though it were a cost or penalty of some sort. You should see this as an opportunity! In our example, checking back means that Hero will get to benefit from additional information about the hand he’s likely to hold at showdown. Because Villain is not in a position to make similar use of this information, this is an opportunity for the Hero.

The turn card is going to be what it’s going to be. It’s already sitting there on top of the deck, waiting to be dealt. Essentially, you are given the opportunity to peak at that card before you decide whether you want to get all in. Why wouldn’t you do that? Sure, it will be disappointing to see the Ac, but if you are going to see it either way, wouldn’t you prefer to know that it’s coming so that you can avoid putting $300 out there?

Put another way, assume that Villain never folds to a flop shove and will always shove any turn. In this case, shoving flop and calling a shove on any turn are functionally equivalent. The only question is whether Hero can make use of the additional information that the turn brings in order to avoid committing his stack on particularly bad runouts.

Fold Equity

All of that operates under the assumption that Villain never folds the flop. This was my expectation when playing the hand, though I do think that Gavrik makes a very good point (which also has some connection to a discussion in Mathematics of Poker):

Let’s see what happens if we base our play on trying to guess if we have any fold equity or not.

1) We assume we have ~10% fold equity. We are wrong and in reality we have 0% fold equity. We shove, get called and flip for it. We have lost a tiny amount of equity by being wrong.

2) We assume we have 0% fold equity. We are wrong and in reality villain would have folded ~10% of his range. We check back the flop and from there all sorts of bad things can happen – villain can “bluff shove” all the hands he would have folded on the flop, villain can hit a pair on the turn and shove for value, in addition, if villain shoves on a brick turn we are not really getting the right price to call. Seems like a recipe for disaster.

So, a lot depends on how confident you are that you have no fold equity. I was pretty damn confident.

Villain simply has to be strong based on the pre-flop action. If someone re-raises him pre-flop, he’ll be getting well over 2:1 to call. He just can’t make this play with any hand that isn’t ready to get all-in pre-flop, which means he’s functionally jamming $500 into a pot of $150 and an early position raise from a somewhat nitty player. Except that he’s not jamming, he’s deliberately offering his opponents good odds, which if anything only strengthens his range. Also, as Diane points out, the fact that Villain is in the big blind makes an “air squeeze” even less likely, as he could just call $40 more and see a flop.

Some commenters are suggesting that Villain might have KQ or KJ, but I just don’t see that based on the pre-flop action. Even if he did, I think there’s a fair chance he’s shove the flop as opposed to checking and folding. Just as Villain shouldn’t have any hands that will fold pre-flop, I also don’t think he should have any hands that will check-fold this flop. That means that when he does check, it has to be a trap.

I agree with Chris C. that many Villains will just shove AK on the flop, but I actually think it’s a pretty good hand for inducing, as he can’t really expect better to fold. It doesn’t matter, though. Whether or not Villain’s range includes JJ or AQ doesn’t change Hero’s play as long as Villain isn’t folding (and is planning to jam over a small bet, which I also expect to be the case).

The strength of Villain’s pre-flop range is certainly an argument for folding my hand. Against a range of only overpairs, I should fold. With AK in the mix, I have a call. With only a chance of AK being in there, I should probably fold. However, if Villain is going to make mistakes like this on the flop, my call is a little more appealing.

Turn Plan

Hero will need about 30% equity to call a turn shove. Although I think his ranges are too wide, I want to give props to Sean F. for using Pro Poker Tools to graph Hero’s equity across all turns. Here are graphs of Hero’s equity vs AA and vs KK+,AK.

Even against Aces, Hero can call almost 40% of turn cards. That would be any 7, and 8, any 6, and any heart, 18 cards total, 37.5% of the deck. The tricky thing is that Villain has all combinations of AK in his range, Hero should actually call more than twice as many turns, probably folding only on non-heart Aces and Kings. Putting only suited combinations of AK into Villain’s range again makes Hero call only on turns that clearly improve his hand, which was my plan (like Chris C., I’m skeptical that Villain would play AK this way, and don’t want to assign more than a small chance to that).

It’s worth noting that we might even get a check on some bad turns. Both AA and KK might want to check the Ac, for instance, and KK might choose to check Kc. I think shoving would still be a mistake for Hero, but occasionally getting to see a free river when way behind is a pretty nice perk.

Results

I checked. The turn was the 7c, Villain shoved, and I called and caught an 8 on the river to beat his KK. He was not pleased.

In this volume, you’ll find essays covering the following topics:

Navigating the Early Stages of a Tournament
Balance
Playing Your Image
Catching Bluffs
(Not) Talking at the Table
The Tournament Mindset

You can buy The Thinking Poker Diaries Volume 5 at www.nitcast.com (you’ll get Kindle, PDF, or EPUB versions) or in Kindle form on Amazon.

You certainly don’t need to have read the earlier volumes to make sense of this one, but if you need to get caught up, the first four books are available as a bundle at a discounted rate!

Nate folded to Queens to two shoves that turned out to be from AK and JJ; the story he’s sticking to is that both players were at the bottoms of their ranges and he would make the same fold again. Then he lost QQ to AA to get pretty short and then lost AQ < 87s if memory serves.

Leo jammed the nut flush draw into a made full house. He claims it was a punt but he’s harder on himself than any poker player I know, so probably it was just a cooler.

Although cashing the Main Event was clearly going to be a very significant notch in his belt, Carlos had the stones to stick his stack in twice near the bubble, once jamming KJ over a raise and once open jamming KK for 15 BBs very close to the money. Thankfully neither was called. Interesting question whether turning the Kings face up and eating a one-round penalty would be the most +EV play, but that’s neither here nor there. Ultimately he was busted after shoving 77 into a raise from a “mangy” Russian woman who slowrolled him with Aces. It was a poetic exit, at least!

Former podcast guest Clayton Fletcher is still in the hunt with nearly 600K chips and a top 10% stack! Follow him on Twitter @claytoncomic.

As for myself, it’s tempting just to tell you I lost with Kings vs Aces and let you assume it was an unavoidable cooler, but the sad truth is that 5-bet jamming the Kings was probably the worst option available to me. Here was the situation:

It was early on Day 2, my stack was slightly above average, and the table was generally pretty decent, though not amazing. There was one really tough player (Jonathan “driverseati” Tamayo) on my immediate left. He’d been flatting a lot of my opens, running and playing well, and generally making life difficult for me.

He opened for 1200 UTG at 250/500/50. UTG2 called. I began the hand with about 58K, and both opponents covered. I made it 4800 with KK, which I think is already a mistake. I don’t mind squeezing Kings (though it isn’t as automatic as it may seem), but think my range should be very narrow here, probably just QQ+ and some big suited Aces, because of how strong both opponents’ ranges are and often I’ll be called and end up playing OOP with a lot of money behind. Neither of these players is very likely at all to 4-bet, so I should use bigger sizing, probably 6K.

Anyway, Jonathan threw out two more orange without much hesitation, making it 11,200, and I’m embarrassed to say that I didn’t think too hard before I shipped my stack.

In retrospect, there’s little doubt that his range for calling a shove will be exactly AA, which means that no matter how light he might be on this 4bet (and to be honest, because of how profitably he can flat call and how quickly he raised, I suspect he isn’t that light to begin with), jamming can’t be better than either calling or 5-betting small and calling it off (the latter only being good if he has a very 4betting range, which again I doubt). Nate pointed out, and I agree, that even folding would be better than jamming.

So… I dunno what else to say. It was an unlucky spot, and I know a lot of people would have gone broke there, and it’s possible I would have lost most or all of my chips even if I’d called, but the more I think about it, the more I think my play was pretty clearly suboptimal.

Maybe next year!

The 2015 Nitcast Las Vegas Meetup will take place on July 6th, which is Day 1b of the WSOP Main Event. Don’t worry, though! The meetup will start at 10AM, so even if you’re playing that day, you can start off on the right foot by stopping in to say hello. We’ll meet at the Gold Coast bowling alley and will be there until at least Noon, possibly later. If you’re in town, please stop in and see us!

Strategy

I opened 2.5x from the CO with As Tc, a good player in the small blind called, and the big blind folded. Flop came 7s 9h Js. Villan donked about half pot, I raised 3.5x, he folded.

Blinds 100/200 button opened to 450 SB called and I called Ks Ts in the BB. Flop Qs 9d 8d SB checked I bet 900 button folded SB called. Turn 5, SB checks, I bet 1800 with 4500 behind, he folded. Plan was to jam most rivers if he called.

I opened 44 UTG, Button made a small 3bet, I called. Flop K94r I bet 4500 into 6700 he called. Turn was an T, I checked, he jammed his last 15K, I called and beat his KQ.

I open to $30 with Kd Jd in EP. Two players in EP call, and the BB calls.

Flop ($120 in pot) Td 3s 2s BB bets $40, everyone calls

Turn ($280 in pot) 9c BB bets $60, I call, one more call

River ($460 in pot) 6h BB checks, I bet $300, both fold

So I bust the PH 200K and at the last minute, a friend from back home hits me up to late reg the Monster. I rush over and get in with 15 mins left in the 200/400 level. I have 16.5K at dinner.

AA to AK takes me to 26K.

Stolen blinds take me to 31K.

99 to KJo shorty shove takes me to 39K.

Last hand of the night, I defend 54s against aggro guy with 20bbs. Flop TT7 with a flush draw for me. I check shove and end the night with 47.5K

Didn’t see many flops at all.

While we were bagging, a guy got excited and says “it’s after midnight, I cannot believe I bagged on my birthday!” At this point, I break my silence for the first time and reveal the fact that I am also a fish on a heater and that we share a birthday. There was a bracelet winner on my right (Greg Ostrander) bragging about how he took down a 3K three years ago for $750K. I cut him off mid sentence all like yadda yadda yadda. It’s my birthday, take my picture and he did.

My own play in the Monster Stack was not so exciting. I had to fold good pairs to bad rivers in a couple of medium sized pots, and that took me down to about 9K. In one of my first hands at a new table, a competent-looking player limped UTG at the 100/200 level. I was UTG2 and chose to limp behind with 99.

I raise here more often than not, and always against a weaker limper, but I think calling is a viable option when a good player has limped UTG. I didn’t want to face a limp-raise, and with so many players behind me, there’s a good chance that at least one player who has position is going to call me anyway, in which case the value of going to the flop in a raised pot is not so high. Limping makes it harder to win the pot, but it also makes the pot less important, conceals my hand, and sometimes gives me the option to limp-raise myself.

Sure enough, another capable-looking player limped the CO, and then a young European on the button raised to 1000. The blinds and the first limper folded, and I think at this point I have an easy shove. I gain a lot from his folds, I won’t be in terrible shape when called, and I don’t particularly want to induce a shove by 3-betting less than all-in. To my surprise, the CO jammed as well, and the button folded. This seemed like an even better outcome for me, because I thought he was more likely to have a smaller pair than a larger one, but he actually had AKo and won the flip.

It was a weird hand, but it did in fact turn into the good spot that I hoped it would.

Edit: Carlos asked me to add a shoutout to PokerJunkey.com for providing him with the Eat Sleep Poker t-shirt he’s wearing in this picture. Yet another milestone in CW’s career: free endorsement SWAG!

My original table was awesome, and I got off to a great start, chipping up from 7500 to over 10K in the first hour. Probably the most interesting hand from that level began with UTG, one of the better of my opponents, opening to 125. The CO and SB called, and I had an easy call with 88 in the BB.

The flop came K77r. We checked to the pre-flop raiser, who bet 250, about half of the pot. I again had an easy call.

The turn was another K, I bet 250, or about 1/4 pot, and he folded.

Think about our respective ranges at this point. Neither of us is particularly likely to have a full house, which means that while UTG will occasionally bluff or value bet this turn, he’s going to check behind very often. I can make a little bet like this with my relatively strong range. When I have a hand like 88, I don’t gain much from Villain’s calls, but I do keep him from cheaply realizing his equity when he has unpaired overcards. My stronger pairs do a little better when called but still gain when Villain folds QJ or whatever. And my full houses profit by not allowing Villain to pot control his big pairs.

Just before antes were introduced, my table broke. The next one was still pretty good, but I ended up having to make some big folds. I’m pretty sure they were correct, but they were costly.

At 100/200/25, I opened to 500 with AQo UTG, and only the BB, a recreational player, called. The flop came A65 with two hearts (I had no hearts in my hand). He checked, I bet 750, and he called.

The turn was the 9h. I know a lot of people like to pot control here, but I really don’t think that accomplishes much. If I check back here, it’s because I think I’m in such bad shape that I can’t profitably put another bet in. If I’m going to call or bet river anyway, I’d rather make that bet on the turn, when I can still either get value or at least fold equity from draws. I don’t think there’s much danger of getting check-raise bluffed, so the only thing you lose when raised is one bet, which you were going to put in on the river anyway. I bet 1600, he raised to 3500, and I folded.

Then at 150/300/50, I picked up AA on the Button. I opened to 600, and the BB called. He checked and called 800 on J87dd (I had the Ad). The turn was a K. He checked, I bet 1800, and he raised to 3800 with about 4000 behind. There’s a bit more of a case for pot controlling this turn, as there are a lot of runouts where I either won’t be able to value bet river at all or it will be very thin, but I think that even if you’re going to get just one more bet from this hand, the turn might well be the better time to do it. Anyway, I folded, and Villain showed a J. He approached me when the table broke and excitedly told me he had JJ there, which I believe (he was the sort who might not 3-bet it, and I didn’t ask him to show or anything, so he really had no incentive to just come up to me out of the blue and lie).

There was one a while later where a woman opened to 1200 at 250/500/50. The SB, who had only about 10BB, called, and I called getting a great price with Th6h in the BB. The flop came J98 with one heart, and the SB jammed for just about pot.

I thought the original raiser was pretty strong, which was sort of a plus and a minus. She only had about 8K, or a little over 2x the preflop pot, behind. If she overjams with KK or AA it barely affects my equity in the main pot, but I do put in another 5K or so in a dry side pot against her. I ultimately decided to fold largely because I thought SB might have hands like AT or JTs in his range. He had AJo, she had AA, and I would have drilled the river. Still not sure what to make of this, but I think folding is OK.

I ended up losing two coin flips in a row to bust. The first was a close call, as I opened 33 UTG to 1300 at 300/600/75, and UTG1 jammed a little over 8K. He had AKo and got there, even though the BB said he folded AK!

The other one I jammed 99 into a late position raise, and the big blind woke up with AJs to bust me.

I took today off and don’t have any more tournaments planned until the Monster Stack this weekend, gonna play cash for the next few days.

The table was, perhaps not quite as good as the previous day’s, but pretty spectacular. I made good use of one live tell, but mishandled another.

You Raise, I Call

At the 25/50 level, I looked down at 22 and was reaching for raising chips when I noticed the player on my left loading up. I grabbed just two green chips and called. He raised to 250, and I called. The flop came 843 and we both checked, so I immediately put him on whiffed overcards. The turn brought a 2, and I bet 200. This probably should have been more, but I really didn’t want to let him off the hook if he just had a gutshot, and I thought the smaller size might even keep in a hand like KQ. The river was a 9, I bet 400, and he called so quickly that I regretted not betting more, but at the time it seemed like a reasonable amount to expect an unimproved AQ to call.

Calling Chips

There was another pot where I can’t even remember what I had, but whatever it was, I was betting the river for value. I grabbed two yellow chips, planning to declare, “Twelve hundred”, but as I did so my opponent very clearly grabbed calling chips. I quickly changed course and said, “Fifteen hundred,” but he tanked for a long time before folding. What I should have realized is that he knew I could see him grabbing chips and it was actually a “strong-means-weak” tell meant to deter me from betting.

Blocking Bet?

The two significant pots that I lost were both to that same player.

At 75/150, I opened to 450 with As Kc on the Button, and the BB called. The flop came Ah 8h 3h, and he checked and called 500. He checked and called 1000 on a Qd turn, after a long tank.

The river was the 2h, and he threw out 1000 without much hesitation. At this point I was getting nearly 5:1 and convinced myself he could be block betting a worse Ace, but I don’t think that’s consistent with his thinking so long on the turn. I called, and he showed me 7c 6h.

Lucky Turn

I opened to 400 with ATo at the 100/200 level. Villain called, as did the CO, Button, and BB. I was pretty tempted just to give up, but the Q52 was a little too good, so I bet 700 into 2100. Villain called, and everyone else folded.

I had about a pot-sized bet behind, and was thinking Ks and Js would be great for shoving, but then a 3 popped off and I realized I had more backdoor straight draws than I’d consciously realized (though this was probably part of the reason the flop struck me as too good to give up). I stacked up my chips to jam, and Villain once again reached for his chips. Remembering what this meant the last time, I carried through on my shove, but he practically beat me into the pot. “I got very lucky,” he told me, turning over 33 for a turned set.

“Indeed you did,” I said, a little more snippily than I intended. On to the next one.

Another Lucky Turn

My cash session started off with more of the same. After scoping out five tables at two different venues, I settled into a 5/10 game at Bellagio. There were a few young guys who seemed like serious players, but only one of them seemed to rise above the level of “mediocre reg”, and there were a few soft spots as well.

I limped UTG with 22, two players limped behind, and then one of the seemingly mediocre regs made it $40 on the Button. The seemingly good reg on the BB called. Thinking that the Button would have raised bigger with a premium hand, I re-raised to $160. The action folded to him, and he called quickly. The BB called as well.

The flop came 6c 3c 3s. The BB checked, I bet $200 into a pot of about $500, the Button called with about $500 behind (this is why my flop sizing was small), and the BB folded.

I was ready to be done with it, but the turn was an offsuit Ace. Intriguing. I checked, and Villain checked behind. The river was a Q. I threw five black chips into the pot.

“So sick,” Villain said. “I know you got there. Ugh, I did not want to see a Queen.” Huh, that’s not what I wanted him to be afraid of. “Fuck it, I call,” he said, turning over Ac Kc. I showed him my twos, tossed him $500, and mentally demoted him from “mediocre reg” to “wannabe”.

Bad Donk

I played this one pretty badly to be honest, but because it turns out I was winning until the river, I’m allowed to feel sorry for myself, right?

UTG opened for $30, Wannabe called on the Button, and I called with 43o on the BB.

Flop ($95) 864r. I bet $70, UTG folded, Button quickly called.

Turn ($235) 2. I really need to just cut my losses here, but the gutshot was just too tempting to keep me from firing again. I bet $170, and Button called with no hesitation.

River ($575) A. This is probably a decent card to follow through, but he seemed in no mood to fold, so I finally gave it up. He proudly tabled A5o.

I planned to leave pretty soon and decided not to top my stack off from $1250 to the $1500 cap. Of course a few hands later I flopped the nuts and doubled through someone who probably would have paid off another $250 considering he put me all in for $500 more when I bet $500 on the river.

Pot Odds

I finally got my revenge, plus a good laugh, on what turned out to be my last hand of the session (I was waiting for dealer change because it was a time rake #nitcast). UTG, a weak player who’d been raising too much from all positions, opened for $40. UTG1, who seemed like a good pro, called. I made it $140 with As Js UTG2. Wannabe cold called from the SB, UTG called, and UTG1 called.

Flop ($575) 2s 3c 7h. Checked to me, I bet $300, SB called, the other two folded.

Turn ($1175) Ac. He checked. I briefly considered trying to get my value now, but I actually thought AK was a real possibility for SB, so I decided to check back and fold to a big river bet or value bet if he checked.

River ($1175) 2d. He checked. I thought about betting pot but settled on $700.

Wannabe groaned. “I told myself the bigger you bet, the more I was going to call you. You bet the pot. That means you have either Aces or nothing.” Wow, it was hard to keep a poker face after that little monologue. But he wasn’t done yet. “How much is in the pot?” he asked the dealer.

“I can’t tell you that,” she said.

“You can spread it out, right?” he said. She spread the pot. “Eleven hundred,” he muttered to himself. “That means I only have to be right half the time.” Again, I suppressed a smile. Finally, he gave up the facade and copped to his true logic: “Fuck it, I call.”

I don’t think any of the Millionaire Maker hands were terribly interesting (though some were humorous), so here’s one from cash. UTG is the spot at the table, which isn’t to say he’s terrible by any means, but he’s got a huge amount of money in front of him and is a little too eager to stick it into the pot. BB seems to be a very talented player, not sure what either of them thinks of me. BB has 9K, I have 10K, UTG covers us both. One player is away, so game is eight-handed.

UTG opens for $75, I call UTG1, and BB calls.

Flop ($235 in pot) Ah 8s 3c. Checks around.

Turn ($235 in pot) Qd. BB bets $150, UTG folds, I raise to $625.

What should my raising range look like? What should BB call with? What should he 3-bet?

My starting table was pretty great, full of the most ideal sort of recreational players. There was one guy who was a little better than the rest but thought he was a lot better and wouldn’t shut up about how unlucky he was getting and how well he was playing. It got so bad that he was bragging to people in the middle of hands about how he was reading them. When one of the Bubbas three-bet him, he said, “Well, I know you don’t have AK, because you just call with that.” The Bubba was clearly rattled by this and said, out loud, that he’d have to change up the way he played.

Other than that kind of thing, random dumb poker talk from bad players doesn’t really tilt me the way it does a lot of pros. I sometimes even find it endearing.

What does bug me is the near-compulsive need to make lame comments and jokes any time a remotely attractive woman walks past or the subject of sex is mentioned. My current theory is that most poker players – most people, really – want nothing more than to fit in, make no waves, and be unobjectionable. Sports and (heterosexual) sex talk are the least controversial subjects you can broach at the poker table, and so making the easy joke or obvious pun is a way to affirm your normality and ensure that you’ll get a chuckle or grunt of agreement. Also most of these guys have no filter or impulse control, which is a big part of what makes them so bad at poker.

After that I got some tough tables. Dan O’Brien was at one along with three guys I didn’t recognize but who all seemed to know him and each other. That had to be one of the worst tables in the room.

Then that table broke and I ended up Calvin Anderson and someone else really good whom I feel like I should’ve been able to identify but couldn’t put my finger on it. Obviously there was still a ton of easy money in the tournament, and although I had access to some of those players, I think I could have run a lot better on table draws.

Anyway, interesting hands:

You Were in the Right Ballpark

Villain open limps the hijack, SB completes, I check 63o in the BB. Flop 9d 5h 4d. Checks to HJ, he bets 100, SB folds, I raise to 400, HJ calls. Turn 8d I bet 600, he says “Well, I put you on the flush draw”, flashes a 9, and folds.

All That For a Chop?

I’d had AK twice before against Villain. Once I raised his limp, checked back the flop, and folded to a turn bet. Once I’d three-bet him, checked back the flop, and folded to a turn bet.

Villain limps UTG for 150. I make it 600 UTG2 with Ah Kc. Action folds back to him, and he calls. Flop 822 with two hearts. We both check. Turn 8, he checks, I bet 400 into 2000, he raises to 1500, I call. River 4 he puts me all in for 4500, I call, he has As Ts which is about the worst hand he could possibly play that way.

More Bluffing

Villain limps UTG1, someone else limps, SB completes, I check 54o. Flop Tc 8c 6h checks around. Turn 3d, SB checks, I pot it for 600, UTG1 calls, others fold. Turn Kd I bet 800 to get him off busted draws, he folds.

Bad Fold

Blinds 150/300/25. Very good players UTG1 opens to 700, folds to me in BB, I call with K2s. Flop AKKr. I check and call 800. Turn Q. I check and call 1600. River T. I check and fold when he puts me all in for about 5500. My thinking at the time was that it would be hard for him to get to the river with enough bluffing hands given that he opened UTG1 at a 10-handed table. However, there are so few nut combos when I block the K (I don’t think he’s jamming a J for value, though I could be wrong about that, and if I am calling is a lot less good) that even just giving him T9s and 98s is probably enough for me to call. He later showed up with K3s after opening middle position, so he was clearly getting out of line pre-flop, which also makes my assumption less good, though I didn’t have that info at the time. This is definitely a good board for him to go three barrels with air, it’s just a question of how often he’ll have it.

Facing a Donk Bet

I opened 2.5x from the CO with As Tc, a good player in the small blind called, and the big blind folded. Flop came 7s 9h Js. Villan donked about half pot, I raised 3.5x, he folded.

Making a Donk Bet

Blinds 100/200 button opened to 450 SB called and I called Ks Ts in the BB. Flop Qs 9d 8d SB checked I bet 900 button folded SB called. Turn 5, SB checks, I bet 1800 with 4500 behind, he folded. Plan was to jam most rivers if he called.

Donking a Set

I opened 44 UTG, Button made a small 3bet, I called. Flop K94r I bet 4500 into 6700 he called. Turn was an T, I checked, he jammed his last 15K, I called and beat his KQ. In this case I doubt it much mattered what I did, but I think this is an interesting spot to donk bet. The thing is that when he doesn’t have K it’s pretty hard for me to get stacks in if I check. I can’t rep a big draw by check-raising, he’ll check behind a lot of turns if I check-call, etc. I think a donk is quite likely to get called or raised by hands like AQ, AJ, QJ, JT, QQ, JJ, TT. Then even if the turn goes check-check I can still jam the river for pot.

River Bluff

Blinds 500/1000/100. Button opens to 2200, I make it 6000 with KQo, he calls. Flop 952r, I bet 6500 which is about half-pot, he min-raises, I call. Turn is a 4 and checks through. River is an 8, I put him all in for 37K (there’s about 52K in the pot), and he calls with TT and not much hesitation. I was actually surprised he was that strong, and I may well be able to get him off of smaller pairs and/or Ace-high (if he takes this line) often enough for this to be profitable even without him folding TT.

Pre-flop is actually the part I’m most ambivalent about. We’re a bit deep (nearly 60bb) for three-betting KQo. Quite possible it’s better to just call. I like the flop bet, and I like calling flop getting 7:1 (easily the right odds when he has underpairs, especially if he lets me see a free river), and I think KQ is close enough to the bottom of my range to jam as a bluff. Value range is going to be JJ+, sets, and perhaps two-pair if I have them in my preflop range.

I Haz Blocker!

Blinds 800/1600/200. Good player UTG (has been talking to Bryn Kenney about playing EPTs etc) opens to 3200. Weak player on CO calls off of a 35K stack. From some players that would be strength, but from him it’s weakness. I was already thinking this was a good spot to squeeze and then I found dem rockets on the button. I made it 11K, UTG eyed my stack and then called without much deliberation. CO folded.

Flop Kc Qc Th. Not exactly ideal for AA, but I had the Ac. He checked, and I checked back.

Turn 4c. He bet half pot, and I called.

River was an offsuit 7. He bet 32K into 57K.

When I put the details down in black and white like this, it looks like a pretty straight-forward call. The thing is that Villain was shaking as he put the money into the pot and seemed pretty amped up generally, not worried but excited. It was a pretty strong physical tell, and of course in retrospect I wish I’d listened to it. It was just so hard to put him on a flush given that I was looking at the A, the K, and Q, and he’d raise-called from UTG. But, he had the 9c 8c.

Busto

Blinds 1000/2000/300. Same Villain opened to 4000 from the button. SB (same weak player who called in the previous hand) called, and I called 8h 7d from a 40K stack. Flop T64 with two hearts. Checks to Villain, he bets 5800, SB folds, and I jam for a little over pot.

To be honest this might be a little tilty. I mean, it can’t be too bad, but I don’t think how often Villain is bet-folding this texture, he probably checks back a lot of broadway-type hands and any draws that aren’t strong enough to bet-call. Calling could actually be better for me. Board ran out dry and I lost to a set of 4s.

Leo Wolpert, who also cashed this tournament, convinced me to play the Millionaire Maker tomorrow, so that’s where I’ll be at 10AM.

PokerStars – $2000+$100|200/400 Ante 50 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 91.04 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 14)
SB: 79.65 BB (VPIP: 27.91, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 43)
Hero (BB): 29.43 BB
UTG: 20.47 BB (VPIP: 23.89, PFR: 9.82, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 113)
UTG+1: 20.85 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
MP: 29.11 BB (VPIP: 21.03, PFR: 15.98, 3Bet Preflop: 5.75, Hands: 196)
MP+1: 102.62 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
CO: 40.3 BB (VPIP: 27.91, PFR: 18.60, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has 4c 7c
fold, fold, MP raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop : (5.5 BB, 2 players) 3d 5c 6c
Hero checks, MP checks

Turn : (5.5 BB, 2 players) 6d
Hero bets 3.09 BB, MP calls 3.09 BB

River : (11.67 BB, 2 players) 5d
Hero bets 5.84 BB, MP raises to 21 BB, fold

MP wins 23.34 BB

There may be a case for betting bigger than I did on the turn. Villain is generally drawing dead or two two outs, though, so I’m not too concerned about the price I’m laying him. The river is obviously not a great card, but moreso because of how much it strengthens my range than because it’s likely to give Villain the river.

I suspect a lot of people will want t check-call here, but I don’t see any value in that. Villain is too likely to have showdown value that he won’t turn into a bluff. I see my options as bet-fold or check-fold, and given how capped Villain ought to be, I think a thin value bet is best.

Unfortunately he manages to find a raise. It’s awfully hard to see him doing this without a 6, regardless of how improbably it is that he played a 6 this way to the river. I suppose my hand is a reasonable bluff-catcher, but still, I just don’t expect to see a bluff here. Among other things, I expect Villain to put me on a more polarized range than I actually have.

Next up was the $1K Main Event, where I wriggled my way out of at least one dicey spot:

PokerStars – $1000+$50|125/250 Ante 30 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 85.65 BB (VPIP: 22.09, PFR: 15.34, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 164)
MP+1: 67.92 BB (VPIP: 26.84, PFR: 18.42, 3Bet Preflop: 2.70, Hands: 193)
Hero (MP+2): 78.2 BB
CO: 62.44 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 10.81, 3Bet Preflop: 2.60, Hands: 189)
BTN: 53.54 BB (VPIP: 38.39, PFR: 22.32, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 112)
SB: 82.09 BB (VPIP: 21.62, PFR: 12.61, 3Bet Preflop: 9.62, Hands: 112)
BB: 33 BB (VPIP: 16.22, PFR: 10.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 112)
UTG: 51.23 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 13.39, 3Bet Preflop: 2.13, Hands: 112)
UTG+1: 26.18 BB (VPIP: 18.92, PFR: 11.71, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 112)

9 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.58 BB) Hero has Kd Kc
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN raises to 5.28 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 13.33 BB, BTN calls 8.05 BB

Flop : (29.24 BB, 2 players) 7h Ac Qd
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn : (29.24 BB, 2 players) 9d
Hero bets 6.66 BB, fold

Hero wins 29.24 BB

Eventually, though, I lost a pretty big pot in a pretty good spot:

PokerStars – $1000+$50|200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 45.27 BB (VPIP: 23.12, PFR: 14.52, 3Bet Preflop: 6.49, Hands: 187)
SB: 35.65 BB (VPIP: 26.29, PFR: 17.84, 3Bet Preflop: 2.35, Hands: 216)
Hero (BB): 88.34 BB
UTG: 22.05 BB (VPIP: 18.57, PFR: 10.58, 3Bet Preflop: 2.20, Hands: 212)
UTG+1: 76.72 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
MP: 56.37 BB (VPIP: 21.64, PFR: 12.69, 3Bet Preflop: 9.23, Hands: 135)
MP+1: 47.31 BB (VPIP: 17.91, PFR: 11.19, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 135)
MP+2: 23.96 BB (VPIP: 19.26, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 3.28, Hands: 135)
CO: 9.53 BB (VPIP: 17.91, PFR: 11.28, 3Bet Preflop: 6.15, Hands: 135)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has Ah Kc
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.25 BB, fold, Hero raises to 6.67 BB, BTN raises to 14.25 BB, Hero raises to 88.22 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 30.89 BB and is all-in

Flop : (91.91 BB, 2 players) 8c 2s 3s

Turn : (91.91 BB, 2 players) 4s

River : (91.91 BB, 2 players) Jh

Hero shows Ah Kc (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 74%, Flop 81%, Turn 69%)

BTN shows Js Ac (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 26%, Flop 19%, Turn 31%)

BTN wins 91.91 BB

I got my second and final High cash of the SCOOP in the $1K 6-max turbo, though because it was a turbo those were pretty much all uninteresting pre-flop spots.

Thanks to everyone who followed along here, on Twitter, on Twitch, or anywhere else. I’m in Las Vegas now, I’ve actually been here for over 48 hours and am yet to play a single hand of poker. I had dinner with Keone last night, and he, Carlos, and I will be picking Nate up at the airport in a few hours.

At the moment, I’m on way out the door to a Red Chip Poker meet-up. Details on a nitcast meetup will be coming soon. So much to do in Vegas this time of year even without setting foot in a poker room!

The only High buy-in event I played on Saturday was the $2000 Six-Max Progressive Super Knockout Variable Level Times. Say that three times fast. It was basically a turbo with bounties, pretty fun though my bounty was collected in rather gruesome fashion. First off, just because I’ve posted a lot of failed bluffs lately, here’s one that actually worked:

PokerStars – $1000+$1000+$100|40/80 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BTN): 71.63 BB
SB: 93.38 BB (VPIP: 39.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
BB: 38.31 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
UTG: 52.94 BB (VPIP: 35.90, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 39)
MP: 79.88 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 13)
CO: 42.81 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 28)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9d Jh
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, SB calls 2 BB, fold

Flop : (6 BB, 2 players) 7c 4h Td
SB bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

Turn : (12 BB, 2 players) 6c
SB bets 6 BB, Hero raises to 20.5 BB, fold

Hero wins 24 BB

And here’s where the last of my chips ended up:

PokerStars – $1000+$1000+$100|125/250 Ante 30 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BB): 15.65 BB
UTG: 30.24 BB (VPIP: 32.31, PFR: 16.92, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 65)
MP: 13.6 BB (VPIP: 38.10, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
CO: 17.02 BB (VPIP: 27.63, PFR: 24.66, 3Bet Preflop: 18.52, Hands: 76)
BTN: 21.04 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 22)
SB: 48.32 BB (VPIP: 26.15, PFR: 21.54, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 65)

6 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.22 BB) Hero has Tc 8c
fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 1 BB, fold, Hero checks

Flop : (3.22 BB, 2 players) 6c 9s 7s
Hero bets 2.41 BB, BTN raises to 4.82 BB, Hero raises to 14.53 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 9.7 BB

Turn : (32.28 BB, 2 players) 7h

River : (32.28 BB, 2 players) 9h

Hero shows Tc 8c (Straight, Ten High)
(Pre 34%, Flop 91%, Turn 88%)

BTN shows Th 9c (Full House, Nines full of Sevens)
(Pre 66%, Flop 9%, Turn 13%)

BTN wins 32.28 BB

Thursday was a $1K Super Knock-Out, though my bounty was collected before I could nab any of my own. This first hand wasn’t a huge pot, but I’m disappointed in myself for calling the river:

PokerStars – $500+$500+$50|15/30 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 210.43 BB (VPIP: 24.75, PFR: 16.75, 3Bet Preflop: 2.11, Hands: 204)
SB: 165.67 BB (VPIP: 6.67, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
BB: 156 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
UTG: 55.37 BB (VPIP: 37.04, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 55)
UTG+1: 237.3 BB (VPIP: 37.25, PFR: 13.73, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 52)
Hero (MP): 137.67 BB
MP+1: 234.8 BB (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 11.36, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 44)
MP+2: 166.67 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
CO: 159.93 BB (VPIP: 22.00, PFR: 14.00, 3Bet Preflop: 12.00, Hands: 50)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Kc Kh
fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop : (7 BB, 2 players) Jh 3d 7c
SB checks, Hero bets 5.23 BB, SB calls 5.23 BB

Turn : (17.47 BB, 2 players) 2s
SB checks, Hero checks

River : (17.47 BB, 2 players) 5h
SB bets 17 BB, Hero calls 17 BB

SB shows 5d 5s (Three of a Kind, Fives)
(Pre 20%, Flop 10%, Turn 5%)

Hero mucks Kc Kh (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 80%, Flop 90%, Turn 95%)

SB wins 51.47 BB

I don’t think Villain is bluffing, and with that sizing, he’s not value betting worse either.

I had a bad feeling about this one, but I think, despite the outcome, I was correct to suppress it as “seeing monsters”:

PokerStars – $500+$500+$50|30/60 Ante 5 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 310.33 BB (VPIP: 27.31, PFR: 16.97, 3Bet Preflop: 2.29, Hands: 285)
MP+2: 14.77 BB (VPIP: 17.71, PFR: 11.46, 3Bet Preflop: 6.52, Hands: 96)
CO: 50.67 BB (VPIP: 14.10, PFR: 8.97, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 79)
BTN: 74.15 BB (VPIP: 21.05, PFR: 14.04, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 57)
SB: 150.58 BB (VPIP: 36.92, PFR: 16.15, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 133)
Hero (BB): 62.23 BB
UTG: 74.27 BB (VPIP: 21.77, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 5.17, Hands: 125)
UTG+1: 140.47 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 12.35, 3Bet Preflop: 7.32, Hands: 82)
MP: 123.92 BB (VPIP: 24.43, PFR: 13.74, 3Bet Preflop: 8.20, Hands: 131)

9 players post ante of 0.08 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has Kd Ks
fold, UTG+1 raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 3 BB, fold, BTN raises to 7.02 BB, SB calls 6.52 BB, Hero raises to 20 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 11.68 BB and is all-in, BTN raises to 74.07 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 42.15 BB and is all-in

Flop : (149.75 BB, 3 players) Tc 9d 8s

Turn : (149.75 BB, 3 players) 5d

River : (149.75 BB, 3 players) 7h

Hero shows Kd Ks (One Pair, Kings)

Main Pot [54.82 BB]: (Pre 18%, Flop 12%, Turn 5%)
Side Pot [94.93 BB]: (Pre 18%, Flop 12%, Turn 5%)

BTN shows Ah As (One Pair, Aces)

Main Pot [54.82 BB]: (Pre 65%, Flop 79%, Turn 5%)
Side Pot [94.93 BB]: (Pre 82%, Flop 88%, Turn 95%)

MP+2 shows 5h 5c (Three of a Kind, Fives)

Main Pot [54.82 BB]: (Pre 17%, Flop 9%, Turn 90%)

MP+2 wins 54.82 BB
BTN wins 94.93 BB

I also Twitched some PLO8 on Thursday, you can find that here.

I’ll be playing all day tomorrow, probably late registering the earliest tournaments by a bit just so I don’t end up with an insanely long day, but hey, it’s the last day of SCOOP, gotta make it count!

PokerStars – $2000+$100|1500/3000 Ante 375 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (MP+2): 21.83 BB
CO: 67.09 BB (VPIP: 27.79, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.73, Hands: 403)
BTN: 157.16 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
SB: 15.14 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 10)
BB: 45.85 BB (VPIP: 18.79, PFR: 12.73, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 166)
UTG: 36.72 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG+1: 65.67 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 12)
MP: 23.49 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 20.66, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 123)
MP+1: 14.18 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 22.58, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 65)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has Kh Jh
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.22 BB, CO raises to 5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.78 BB

Flop : (12.63 BB, 2 players) 5h 9s Qs
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn : (12.63 BB, 2 players) Tc
Hero checks, CO checks

River : (12.63 BB, 2 players) 6d
Hero bets 16.71 BB and is all-in, CO calls 16.71 BB

Hero shows Kh Jh (Straight, King High)
(Pre 36%, Flop 30%, Turn 97%)

CO shows Jc Js (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 64%, Flop 70%, Turn 3%)

Hero wins 46.04 BB

I saw Kim do a lot of pot control and delayed continuation betting yesterday, so I was ready to check-raise the flop (in part because his betting range is probably more polarized than some people’s) and also the turn. When neither of those things happen, I think he’ll feel obliged to call an overbet with some hands, and because his range is likely capped, it’s a situation where I can and should shove the nuts and some air. I was a bit lucky not just to drill the gutshot but also that he had such a good bluff-catcher.

The next orbit, he did actually catch me in a bluff:

PokerStars – $2000+$100|1500/3000 Ante 375 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BB): 45.54 BB
UTG: 44.76 BB (VPIP: 27.70, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.17, Hands: 408)
UTG+1: 154.25 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
MP: 34.93 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 15)
MP+1: 43.73 BB (VPIP: 18.24, PFR: 12.35, 3Bet Preflop: 3.90, Hands: 171)
MP+2: 21.2 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
CO: 63.54 BB (VPIP: 35.29, PFR: 23.53, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 17)
BTN: 23.99 BB (VPIP: 26.98, PFR: 20.63, 3Bet Preflop: 7.27, Hands: 128)
SB: 15.18 BB (VPIP: 22.86, PFR: 22.73, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 70)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has Jd As
UTG raises to 2.2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.2 BB

Flop : (6.03 BB, 2 players) 5h Td 5d
Hero checks, UTG bets 1.83 BB, Hero calls 1.83 BB

Turn : (9.69 BB, 2 players) Kd
Hero checks, UTG checks

River : (9.69 BB, 2 players) 9c
Hero bets 6.3 BB, UTG calls 6.3 BB

Hero shows Jd As (One Pair, Fives)
(Pre 28%, Flop 12%, Turn 5%)

UTG shows Qd Qc (Two Pair, Queens and Fives)
(Pre 72%, Flop 88%, Turn 95%)

UTG wins 22.28 BB

There may be some runouts where I can just check and try to show my hand down unimproved, but this isn’t one of them. Between the King coming on the turn and his passing up a decent bluffing card, there’s little chance that AJ is good. The flush getting there makes this just about the bottom of my range, and he’s got plenty of underpairs and maybe AQ that will be hard-pressed to call, so I think a bluff is clearly correct. QQ isn’t a hand I’d expect him to fold, especially after he saw me value bet a relatively weak hand in a spot like this yesterday.

I picked up some more chips busting a short stack AK > AJ, then lost JJ < QQ versus another short stack. The only other interesting one that went to the flop was this:

PokerStars – $2000+$100|2000/4000 Ante 500 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 25.39 BB (VPIP: 43.70, PFR: 36.44, 3Bet Preflop: 21.43, Hands: 123)
MP+2: 51.78 BB (VPIP: 26.54, PFR: 12.96, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 162)
CO: 25.98 BB (VPIP: 20.68, PFR: 13.62, 3Bet Preflop: 12.26, Hands: 238)
BTN: 169.98 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 15)
SB: 75.43 BB (VPIP: 27.63, PFR: 22.37, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 78)
BB: 24.22 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 9.38, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 64)
Hero (UTG): 23.35 BB
UTG+1: 29.85 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
MP: 17.51 BB (VPIP: 6.67, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has Kd Ad
Hero raises to 2.22 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.22 BB

Flop : (6.07 BB, 2 players) 8d 3h 7c
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (6.07 BB, 2 players) Js
BB checks, Hero checks

River : (6.07 BB, 2 players) 3d
BB bets 2.81 BB, fold

BB wins 6.07 BB

Villain’s stack size makes betting the flop awkward. Especially as he could shove semi-bluffs, bet-folding causes me to forfeit a lot of equity, but I don’t really want to bet-call either. I tanked a while before folding the river. Yes, he could easily be bluffing, but my entire range can beat a bluff, so I don’t need to call with all of it. I can have some 7s, maybe even some 8s or Js, and 66 and 55 make particularly good bluff-catchers as they block a few of his 7x and 8x combinations. Folding all of my non-pairs might still be a bit exploitable, but especially in a tournament I’m OK with that.

As it happened, Randal Flowers, who eliminated me from the previous 2K event and nearly busted me on the bubble of this one, ended up taking the last of my chips when his AK beat my KK.

The upside was that I got to spend some time outside and take a long walk. I’d planned on having today as a day off, and it felt that way even though it technically wasn’t. Here are some pics from my walk around Stanley Park:

Thanks to everyone who wished me well today or showed up to rail. I start tomorrow at 11AM Pacific playing all three Super Tuesday tournaments, though I’ll probably late register the Low and Medium PLO events at that time as well. I’ll post the new podcast tomorrow morning, but wanted to get this up first as I didn’t want to leave you hanging concerning results.

PokerStars – $2000+$100|40/80 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 126.5 BB (VPIP: 14.86, PFR: 8.11, 3Bet Preflop: 5.13, Hands: 75)
SB: 133.29 BB (VPIP: 8.11, PFR: 4.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 75)
Hero (BB): 101.28 BB
UTG: 94.94 BB (VPIP: 13.70, PFR: 9.59, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 74)
UTG+1: 125 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
MP: 158.91 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 27)
MP+1: 142.38 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 18.06, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 74)
MP+2: 151.38 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 68)
CO: 100.48 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 49)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qd Qc
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 2.5 BB, BTN raises to 7.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 18.05 BB, fold, BTN raises to 126.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 83.23 BB and is all-in

Flop : (205.55 BB, 2 players) 5c 2s 6c

Turn : (205.55 BB, 2 players) 6s

River : (205.55 BB, 2 players) Kc

Hero shows Qd Qc (Two Pair, Queens and Sixes)
(Pre 18%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)

BTN shows Ac As (Two Pair, Aces and Sixes)
(Pre 82%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)

BTN wins 205.55 BB

In the afternoon events, I managed to get up stacks in both the $200 and the $2000, though I probably misplayed and got lucky on the first critical hand from the High:

PokerStars – $2000+$100|30/60 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 159.08 BB (VPIP: 21.28, PFR: 19.15, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 48)
UTG+1: 130.07 BB (VPIP: 10.42, PFR: 4.17, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)
MP: 166.17 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
MP+1: 166.67 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
MP+2: 165.33 BB (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)
CO: 152.48 BB (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)
BTN: 157.45 BB (VPIP: 19.57, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 48)
SB: 169.05 BB (VPIP: 21.62, PFR: 13.51, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 37)
Hero (BB): 150 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has As Ks
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9.5 BB, MP+1 calls 6.5 BB

Flop : (19.5 BB, 2 players) Th 7h 5s
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 10.43 BB, Hero calls 10.43 BB

Turn : (40.37 BB, 2 players) Qs
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 28.75 BB, Hero calls 28.75 BB

River : (97.87 BB, 2 players) 8s
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 66.15 BB, Hero raises to 101.32 BB and is all-in, MP+1 calls 35.17 BB

Hero shows As Ks (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 62%, Flop 41%, Turn 66%)

MP+1 shows Jh 9h (Straight, Queen High)
(Pre 38%, Flop 59%, Turn 34%)

Hero wins 300.5 BB

This is basically just weak-tight play on my part, but my thinking was that Villain wasn’t going to fold better to a turn shove. His sizing meant either a monster or a big draw, not a hand like JT that would fold to a shove. That leaves open the question of what exactly I’m going to do on blank rivers. Calling isn’t beyond me, but I think I’m better off just sticking it on the turn. It turns out I got the gin card on the river, which I want to be sure to acknowledge because I’ve been on the wrong end of some similar spots recently and I want to combat the selective memory of those spots.

For much of the day, I was stuck at a tough but interesting table with several good cash game players, including Dong Kim. That meant a lot more pots than usual were going to flops, as these players preferred to play post-flop rather than get into the pre-flop raising wars in which the tournament pros specialize. I usually prefer the former myself, but sensing less of an edge than usual in that regard, I switched to a strategy of employing larger open raises. That said, I did get in a nice value bet against Kim that, though not really a tough decision, gave me the warm and fuzzies:

PokerStars – $2000+$100|400/800 Ante 100 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 100.43 BB (VPIP: 19.85, PFR: 13.58, 3Bet Preflop: 7.81, Hands: 268)
CO: 30.25 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 15.11, 3Bet Preflop: 4.41, Hands: 141)
BTN: 74.91 BB (VPIP: 30.45, PFR: 23.02, 3Bet Preflop: 13.16, Hands: 266)
SB: 43.76 BB (VPIP: 19.62, PFR: 11.36, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 266)
Hero (BB): 60.52 BB
UTG: 85.96 BB (VPIP: 17.89, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 6.12, Hands: 96)
UTG+1: 40.53 BB (VPIP: 24.43, PFR: 15.33, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 265)
MP: 26.38 BB (VPIP: 32.58, PFR: 17.98, 3Bet Preflop: 3.20, Hands: 267)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has Qs 6s
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.2 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.2 BB

Flop : (5.9 BB, 2 players) Ks Qc 9h
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn : (5.9 BB, 2 players) 3s
Hero checks, BTN checks

River : (5.9 BB, 2 players) 8h
Hero bets 4.17 BB, BTN calls 4.17 BB

Hero shows Qs 6s (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 55%, Flop 66%, Turn 86%)

BTN mucks Jc 9c (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 45%, Flop 34%, Turn 14%)

Hero wins 14.23 BB

The main lesson here is that just because you are value betting a hand that is relatively weak in absolute terms doesn’t mean you should use small sizing. After the flop and turn action, any middle pair is a strong hand, and Kim will feel compelled to pay off even a somewhat large bet with weaker in order to prevent me from bluffing.

That’s not to say I never got outplayed postflop. Here’s one against another heads-up player where I may well have folded the best hand:

PokerStars – $2000+$100|700/1400 Ante 175 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 28.46 BB (VPIP: 19.06, PFR: 12.58, 3Bet Preflop: 7.19, Hands: 321)
MP: 35.01 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 14.00, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 50)
MP+1: 52.96 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 7)
MP+2: 65.05 BB (VPIP: 30.09, PFR: 22.33, 3Bet Preflop: 12.59, Hands: 319)
CO: 148.32 BB (VPIP: 26.92, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 26)
Hero (BTN): 54.59 BB
SB: 57.54 BB (VPIP: 20.95, PFR: 11.49, 3Bet Preflop: 7.04, Hands: 149)
BB: 39.88 BB (VPIP: 24.76, PFR: 15.92, 3Bet Preflop: 6.52, Hands: 318)
UTG: 121.86 BB (VPIP: 19.11, PFR: 13.16, 3Bet Preflop: 4.48, Hands: 157)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has Ks Kd
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2.25 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 6.35 BB, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 4.1 BB

Flop : (15.32 BB, 2 players) 5h 9h 3c
MP+1 checks, Hero bets 6.35 BB, MP+1 calls 6.35 BB

Turn : (28.02 BB, 2 players) 7h
MP+1 bets 7.13 BB, Hero calls 7.13 BB

River : (42.28 BB, 2 players) Qs
MP+1 bets 33.01 BB and is all-in, fold

MP+1 wins 42.28 BB

I don’t know that here’s anything I can do but fold my actual hand, but it sucks playing with players good enough to take advantage of spots like this one. With the Kh, I think I would have called.

The nice thing about SCOOP is that, even many hours into a $2K, you do still get some truly weak players, and I managed to double through one of them:

PokerStars – $2000+$100|600/1200 Ante 150 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 36.52 BB (VPIP: 19.74, PFR: 13.03, 3Bet Preflop: 7.43, Hands: 310)
MP+2: 88.66 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 10.26, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 39)
CO: 33.59 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 4.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
BTN: 73.91 BB (VPIP: 29.87, PFR: 22.48, 3Bet Preflop: 13.08, Hands: 308)
SB: 116.29 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 15)
Hero (BB): 41.91 BB
UTG: 51.65 BB (VPIP: 19.71, PFR: 10.95, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 138)
UTG+1: 52.29 BB (VPIP: 25.33, PFR: 16.17, 3Bet Preflop: 6.72, Hands: 307)
MP: 147.98 BB (VPIP: 19.86, PFR: 13.48, 3Bet Preflop: 4.84, Hands: 146)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has 8d 8s
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop : (7.63 BB, 2 players) 9h 5h 7d
Hero checks, CO bets 6 BB, Hero raises to 38.78 BB and is all-in, CO calls 24.47 BB and is all-in

Turn : (68.56 BB, 2 players) 9s

River : (68.56 BB, 2 players) Kh

Hero shows 8d 8s (Two Pair, Nines and Eights)
(Pre 67%, Flop 81%, Turn 89%)

CO shows Qc 7c (Two Pair, Nines and Sevens)
(Pre 33%, Flop 19%, Turn 11%)

Hero wins 68.56 BB

Despite all of this, I was whiffing a lot post-flop and Kim had the button when I had the BB so I wasn’t getting any walks easy BB defenses. By the time the bubble rolled around, I had barely 10BBs and was forced to make some tight folds, including AJs facing a raise from a pretty active player.

On the exact bubble, I was dealt JJ in middle position. I think the big jump from no prize to $4000, followed by very gradual prize increases thereafter, would have forced me to fold it if someone had opened in front. It seemed too good not to open jam, though, even on the bubble, so I shipped it. None other than Randal Flowers, who’d busted me in the morning $2K, quickly shoved over the top. I actually said out loud, “Are you FUCKING kidding me?!”, which is quite out of character. Thankfully he “just” had AKs so I had a few heart-stopping seconds to sweat but I did manage the cash.

Once we were in the money I was pretty card dead but won one more flip for my tournament life, which means I’m coming into Day 2 with just over 20 BBs, in 71st place out of 86 remaining players. Play restarts at 11:30 AM Pacific time, and I’ll probably late register the triple stack at that time as well.

Of course you have to accept more of that when you play in tougher tournaments, and yesterday’s 6-max shootout and today’s 4-max both featured tough fields. Furthermore, because they were short-handed, there were a lot more spots where it both my opponent and I began with wide ranges, which introduces more variance and more opportunities for coolers and bluff coolers.

The 4-max met my expectations in the sense that there were a lot of accomplished tournament players, but many of them were (IMO) playing overly aggressive. For whatever reason, even many very good players approach 4-max more aggressively than they do a ring game table in which the first five players have folded, though strategically they ought to be the same (or even a bit tighter in 4-max, during ante levels).

What was frustrating was that players with extremely wide ranges kept making monster hands against me:

PokerStars – $2000+$100|15/30 NL (4 max) – Holdem – 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 170.33 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
Hero (BB): 157.83 BB
CO: 315.47 BB (VPIP: 41.67, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 13)
BTN: 167.67 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 3)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Tc 7s
fold, fold, SB raises to 2.4 BB, Hero calls 1.4 BB

Flop : (4.8 BB, 2 players) 5s 8c 5c
SB bets 2.4 BB, Hero calls 2.4 BB

Turn : (9.6 BB, 2 players) Ts
SB checks, Hero bets 9.6 BB, SB raises to 24 BB, Hero calls 14.4 BB

River : (57.6 BB, 2 players) Ac
SB bets 36 BB, Hero calls 36 BB

SB shows 8s 5d (Full House, Fives full of Eights)
(Pre 37%, Flop 99%, Turn 95%)

Hero mucks Tc 7s (Two Pair, Tens and Fives)
(Pre 63%, Flop 1%, Turn 5%)

SB wins 129.6 BB

My entire play in this hand is premised on the assumption that Villain’s range is wider than it should be, which given that he shows up with 85o seems like a reasonable assumption. So I float the flop with backdoors and, in all likelihood, two live cards.

On the turn, he’s either giving up or bluff-catching (or trapping, though only a very small portion of his range is strong enough for that), which is why I’m going for a big value bet. The raise is worrisome, but my pot-sized bet is a bit “out of rhythm” and may induce some spazziness (as I said, the 4-max was full of over-aggressive play), so I think my hand is too good to fold. The river is not as bad as it looks, because I don’t think Villain will value bet a bare 5, especially not for a big bet, and I can’t imagine Villain taking this line with all of his flush draws on the turn. It may, however, look like a very good card for Villain to fire again if he was bluffing the turn. Believe it or not, I feel pretty good about my line on this one.

I feel a little less good about this next one:

PokerStars – $2000+$100|20/40 NL (4 max) – Holdem – 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 115.55 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
Hero (BTN): 152.6 BB
SB: 316.28 BB (VPIP: 43.18, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 46)
BB: 149.05 BB (VPIP: 62.86, PFR: 22.86, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 36)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ks 8h
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop : (6.5 BB, 2 players) 3c 3h 8c
BB checks, Hero bets 3.25 BB, BB raises to 10.5 BB, Hero calls 7.25 BB

Turn : (27.5 BB, 2 players) 4d
BB bets 20 BB, Hero calls 20 BB

River : (67.5 BB, 2 players) 6h
BB bets 47.5 BB, Hero calls 47.5 BB

BB shows Jd 3d (Three of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 41%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)

Hero mucks Ks 8h (Two Pair, Eights and Threes)
(Pre 59%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)

BB wins 162.5 BB

I half-pot my entire range on this flop, which makes this hand quite close to the top. Really, even from the button, I don’t have much 3x in my range. Clubs miss on the turn and Villain may have picked up a gutshot or just be firing again, so I call again. River is where I think a fold is possible. Villain was a weaker player, and although spazzing isn’t out of the question for him, and this probably is one of the best bluff-catchers in my range as it blocks 88 (which, say, KK would not), it might be best just to make an exploitive fold. It definitely “felt” like he had it, though I’m less inclined to rely on that kind of feeling when I’ve been running bad because of “monsters under the bed” syndrome.

This last one is the best example of running into a tough spot because of the field. It was against Andrew “LuckyChewy” Lichtenberger:

PokerStars – $2000+$100|25/50 NL (4 max) – Holdem – 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 154.36 BB (VPIP: 40.38, PFR: 30.77, 3Bet Preflop: 19.05, Hands: 55)
Hero (CO): 61.64 BB
BTN: 188.34 BB (VPIP: 45.78, PFR: 31.33, 3Bet Preflop: 15.63, Hands: 87)
SB: 182.44 BB (VPIP: 45.95, PFR: 21.62, 3Bet Preflop: 5.71, Hands: 77)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8s 9s
Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop : (4.5 BB, 2 players) Qc 4h 7s
BB checks, Hero bets 2.24 BB, BB calls 2.24 BB

Turn : (8.98 BB, 2 players) 5s
BB checks, Hero bets 6.72 BB, BB calls 6.72 BB

River : (22.42 BB, 2 players) 2s
BB checks, Hero bets 16.8 BB, BB raises to 66.64 BB, fold

BB wins 56.02 BB

Against most people I’d consider this a, not exactly easy, but definitely correct fold. I can only beat a bluff, and while two spades makes for a pretty good bluff-catchers, a lot of people are just never bluffing here. Does Lichtenberger fall into that category? I probably shouldn’t assume so. The more I think about it, the more I think my range can include at least sets and 86, so even though this is one of the worst flushes I can have, I might just have to suck it up and call. I want to emphasize, though, that this is only a gross spot because of who the Villain is. I really think it’s a clear fold otherwise, crazy as that may seem.

I busted with AJs vs 99 in the blinds, so I guess I got what I asked for in that regard.

The Variable Level Times was a neat format. Stacks started extremely deep – 25,000 BBs, to be precise – but blinds went up every 3 minutes at first. Over time, the blind increases got less frequent. There was a LOT of craziness in those early levels. People were really not adjusting well to the deep stacks and playing all kinds of junky hands out of position. Unfortunately I didn’t get much opportunity to take advantage, but the mistakes were plain to see.

I made a pretty big fold with a flush in this one as well:

PokerStars – $665+$35|600/1200 Ante 150 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 28.35 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 23.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
BTN: 74.15 BB (VPIP: 31.62, PFR: 16.24, 3Bet Preflop: 6.52, Hands: 120)
SB: 109.83 BB (VPIP: 35.88, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 15.09, Hands: 132)
BB: 38.83 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 14)
UTG: 22.73 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 20.39, 3Bet Preflop: 2.22, Hands: 106)
Hero (MP): 82.32 BB

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has Qc Js
fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, CO raises to 4.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB

Flop : (11.25 BB, 2 players) Kc Tc 2c
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn : (11.25 BB, 2 players) 7c
Hero checks, CO bets 5.5 BB, Hero calls 5.5 BB

River : (22.25 BB, 2 players) 5h
Hero checks, CO bets 18.23 BB and is all-in, fold

CO wins 22.25 BB

For better or worse, if Villain had bet the flop, we could have gotten all in. His range for 3-betting and then checking the flop has a LOT of Ax in it, though, and not a whole lot else. Among other things, this is a very plausible line for AcK, AcQ, and AcA. If he were going to bluff, I think he’d most likely just bet the flop. This isn’t exactly a fluke turn card. It’s irrelevant that I have the Queen when he shoves. He’s either got the nuts or a bluff, and I’m proud of myself for laying this one down.

I busted this one on a coin flip as well, AK < 77.

I’m not going to skip a Sunday, so I’ll be starting at 8AM Pacific in the Warm-Up. There’s a good chance I’ll take Monday off, though, unless I”m not able to because of a Day Two!

The field in the $2K 6-Max was no joke, either. My Round One opponents consisted of three top-notch tournament players (Amak16, P0cket00, and SmokRokFlok) and a sixth player I didn’t recognize. Honestly, I was a bit intimidated. Not that I didn’t think I could hold my own, but I certainly wasn’t expecting much of an edge.

That last player turned out to be pretty weak, which was a relief, and it wasn’t as tough as I thought to spot fundamental leaks in the other players’ games. Two of them quickly ran PFRs into the 30s, and people were just generally playing too many hands pre-flop. Of course they were tough post-flop, but if everyone is tough post-flop, then the player with the best pre-flop ranges has the edge. I aimed for that player to be me.

I think I accomplished that, but I still had to be tough post-flop, and that’s where my chips got off to:

PokerStars – $2000+$100|30/60 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (SB): 64.28 BB
BB: 157.52 BB (VPIP: 45.83, PFR: 29.17, 3Bet Preflop: 13.64, Hands: 49)
UTG: 28.67 BB (VPIP: 31.37, PFR: 22.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 52)
CO: 160.78 BB (VPIP: 26.53, PFR: 16.33, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 49)
BTN: 88.75 BB (VPIP: 16.95, PFR: 8.47, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 59)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4s 4h
fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.15 BB, Hero calls 1.65 BB, BB calls 1.15 BB

Flop : (6.45 BB, 3 players) 7s 5d 2c
Hero checks, BB checks, BTN checks

Turn : (6.45 BB, 3 players) 5h
Hero checks, BB bets 3.22 BB, BTN calls 3.22 BB, Hero calls 3.22 BB

River : (16.1 BB, 3 players) Ah
Hero checks, BB checks, BTN bets 8.7 BB, Hero raises to 25.45 BB, fold, BTN calls 16.75 BB

Hero shows 4s 4h (Two Pair, Fives and Fours)
(Pre 54%, Flop 76%, Turn 80%)

BTN shows Kc As (Two Pair, Aces and Fives)
(Pre 46%, Flop 24%, Turn 20%)

BTN wins 67 BB

I don’t think his call with this hand speaks to the value of the bluff one way or the other. Ax is the vast majority of his range here, and he needs to call with some of it, and he might as well include AK in his calling range in case I’m ever going for thin value with a worse Ace. So I either ran into the top of his range, or he’s never folding any Ace, which would make the bluff bad – can’t tell from the results.

I do think this is a good bluffing candidate. My range for overcalling the flop is not wide, I suppose I could have 86s though I don’t think I’d call with that pre, so this is both the bottom of my range and blocks 54s which may be relevant.

I took two “gambles” in the $1000, putting the money in with hands I usually would not because of the bounties. The first seemed pretty straight-forward:

PokerStars – $500+$500+$50|50/100 Ante 10 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 151.59 BB (VPIP: 27.03, PFR: 18.92, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 37)
Hero (BB): 114.91 BB
UTG: 46.2 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
UTG+1: 23.84 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 9.68, Hands: 70)
MP: 184.24 BB (VPIP: 27.88, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 8.75, Hands: 165)
MP+1: 51.98 BB (VPIP: 13.58, PFR: 8.64, 3Bet Preflop: 1.33, Hands: 163)
MP+2: 36.25 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
CO: 87.32 BB (VPIP: 27.66, PFR: 16.43, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 141)
BTN: 45.75 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has Td 9d
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 1.5 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, MP+2 raises to 36.15 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 28.15 BB

Flop : (75.2 BB, 2 players) 2h 5d Qc

Turn : (75.2 BB, 2 players) 7s

River : (75.2 BB, 2 players) Qd

Hero shows Td 9d (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 38%, Flop 27%, Turn 14%)

MP+2 shows As Js (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 62%, Flop 73%, Turn 86%)

MP+2 wins 75.2 BB

The real question is whether to squeeze with the intention of calling in the first place. Once he shoves, calling needing just 37% equity even in the absence of the bounty is pretty trivial with a strong suited connector. Flatting pre-flop has some merit, and although I like having a shot at winning the pot immediately, my hand’s equity does hold up well in a multi-way pot, and I can also take a shot at Villain’s stack post-flop (as it happens, though, I may well have been bet off of a good bet of equity if I’d gone to the flop).

After the tournament, I took a walk and began to question this second call in my head. Then I crunched some numbers and it turns out to be a clear call:

PokerStars – $500+$500+$50|75/150 Ante 20 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 110.57 BB (VPIP: 27.06, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 85)
Hero (MP+2): 38.44 BB
CO: 68.59 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
BTN: 46.95 BB (VPIP: 32.20, PFR: 13.56, 3Bet Preflop: 5.45, Hands: 118)
SB: 149.75 BB (VPIP: 28.64, PFR: 13.15, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 213)
BB: 20.25 BB (VPIP: 12.86, PFR: 7.62, 3Bet Preflop: 1.03, Hands: 211)
UTG: 25.03 BB (VPIP: 23.33, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
UTG+1: 58.2 BB (VPIP: 27.13, PFR: 15.51, 3Bet Preflop: 2.35, Hands: 189)
MP: 84.79 BB (VPIP: 32.14, PFR: 23.21, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 56)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has 4d 4s
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, BTN calls 2 BB, fold, BB raises to 20.12 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero raises to 38.31 BB and is all-in, fold

Flop : (45.94 BB, 2 players) 2s Ts Qs

Turn : (45.94 BB, 2 players) Ks

River : (45.94 BB, 2 players) Jc

BTN mucks 7h 7d (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 0%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)

BB shows Ad As (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 82%, Flop 93%, Turn 100%)

Hero shows 4d 4s (Flush, King High)
(Pre 18%, Flop 7%, Turn 0%)

BB wins 45.94 BB

Against {77+,KQs,KQo,ATs+,AJo+} it’s barely a fold even without the bounty. Tightening Villain’s range slightly by removing the KQo and KQs barely changes my equity at all, and pulling out the ATs and AJo makes a bit closer but still a call given the bounty. I really can’t imagine his range being any tighter than that.

Tomorrow is Big Antes at 8AM Pacific and then 6Max Shootout at 11AM, the latter of which is another I’m really looking forward to.

The $700 Ante Up was disappointing because I love the format and look forward to the tournament, but despite some good luck in all-in pots, there was just too much going wrong. I got some bad runouts, and despite making some big laydowns (AQo pre-flop, flopped trips, flopped top pair, that kinda stuff), I think the biggest mistake I made in the tournament – probably the biggest mistake I’ve made in the SCOOP so far – was not folding this on the turn:

PokerStars – $665+$35|5/5 Ante 100 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 3451.2 BB (VPIP: 61.82, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 55)
BB: 1430.8 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 6.52, Hands: 84)
UTG: 1060.2 BB (VPIP: 63.64, PFR: 10.91, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 55)
UTG+1: 1659.2 BB
MP: 2451.6 BB (VPIP: 58.18, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 12.90, Hands: 55)
MP+1: 2633 BB (VPIP: 50.91, PFR: 5.45, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 55)
Hero (MP+2): 1275.8 BB
CO: 2889.2 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
BTN: 1385.4 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 50)

9 players post ante of 20 BB, SB posts SB 1 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 182 BB) Hero has Kd Ks
UTG calls 1 BB, UTG+1 calls 1 BB, MP calls 1 BB, MP+1 calls 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB, CO calls 1 BB, BTN calls 1 BB, SB checks, BB checks

Flop : (189 BB, 9 players) Js 2c 9d
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets 1 BB, MP calls 1 BB, MP+1 calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 111 BB, fold, BTN calls 111 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

Turn : (414 BB, 2 players) Qc
Hero checks, BTN bets 246.8 BB, Hero calls 246.8 BB

River : (907.6 BB, 2 players) 9h
Hero checks, BTN bets 1006.6 BB and is all-in, fold

BTN wins 907.6 BB

Limping behind pre-flop is certainly risky, but at this stack size I’m not going to have a raise-fold range, and there were still four players to act, including an over-active button who was raising really wide ranges in a lot of bad spots. I’d say there was a 60%-70% chance someone was going to re-open the betting after I limped.

I really don’t know what I’m beating on the turn. AQ and probably KQ raise pre, not to mention I block KQ, and Villain isn’t likely to have a bluff after calling the flop. Not to mention that even if he is bluffing, he’ll shove most rivers, and there aren’t many I can call.

If you’re curious for more Ante Up strategy, I’ve got a whole series about it on Tournament Poker Edge.

I’ll be back at it at 11AM Pacific tomorrow in the $1K Progressive Super Knock-Out.

I won Round One of the $700 in dramatic fashion:

PokerStars – $665+$35|40/80 NL (2 max) – Holdem – 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (SB): 58.33 BB
BB: 66.68 BB (VPIP: 76.81, PFR: 44.93, 3Bet Preflop: 17.65, Hands: 72)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ah Ks
Hero raises to 2 BB, BB raises to 5.5 BB, Hero raises to 12.49 BB, BB calls 6.99 BB

Flop : (24.98 BB, 2 players) 9h 4h 3c
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (24.98 BB, 2 players) 3h
BB bets 15.25 BB, Hero calls 15.25 BB

River : (55.48 BB, 2 players) 6d
BB bets 38.94 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 30.59 BB and is all-in

BB shows 8d 5d (One Pair, Threes)
(Pre 40%, Flop 23%, Turn 9%)

Hero shows Ah Ks (One Pair, Threes)
(Pre 60%, Flop 77%, Turn 91%)

Hero wins 116.65 BB

Unfortunately in Round 2 I went down to a bad beat and a cooler:

PokerStars – $665+$35|40/80 NL (2 max) – Holdem – 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (SB): 71.3 BB
BB: 53.7 BB (VPIP: 78.26, PFR: 53.62, 3Bet Preflop: 14.71, Hands: 70)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7h 9c
Hero raises to 2 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop : (4 BB, 2 players) Kh 7s 4d
BB checks, Hero bets 2 BB, BB raises to 6.8 BB, Hero calls 4.8 BB

Turn : (17.6 BB, 2 players) 7c
BB bets 10.55 BB, Hero calls 10.55 BB

River : (38.7 BB, 2 players) Js
BB bets 34.35 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 34.35 BB

BB shows 4s 4h (Full House, Fours full of Sevens)
(Pre 51%, Flop 98%, Turn 84%)

Hero shows 7h 9c (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 49%, Flop 2%, Turn 16%)

BB wins 107.4 BB

PokerStars – $665+$35|40/80 NL (2 max) – Holdem – 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (SB): 98.35 BB
BB: 26.65 BB (VPIP: 76.92, PFR: 53.85, 3Bet Preflop: 15.63, Hands: 66)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qc Qh
Hero raises to 2 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop : (4 BB, 2 players) 2c 7s Js
BB checks, Hero bets 2 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Turn : (8 BB, 2 players) Kh
BB checks, Hero bets 6 BB, BB raises to 22.65 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 16.65 BB

River : (53.3 BB, 2 players) 9h

BB shows Tc Qs (Straight, King High)
(Pre 11%, Flop 9%, Turn 18%)

Hero shows Qc Qh (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 89%, Flop 91%, Turn 82%)

BB wins 53.3 BB

I got to take a few minutes off before the rebuy events started. I got off to a good start in the $700, then ran into this spot:

PokerStars – $665+$35|200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 37.5 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 9.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
MP+1: 12.62 BB (VPIP: 21.31, PFR: 21.67, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 61)
MP+2: 13.15 BB (VPIP: 12.77, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
CO: 18.98 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 42)
Hero (BTN): 64.76 BB
SB: 48.04 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
BB: 43.54 BB (VPIP: 26.19, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 42)
UTG: 23.57 BB (VPIP: 18.52, PFR: 12.77, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 189)
UTG+1: 14.23 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 42)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has Ad Qc
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB raises to 5.95 BB, fold, Hero raises to 13.89 BB, SB raises to 47.92 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 34.03 BB

Flop : (97.96 BB, 2 players) 6h 9d Tc

Turn : (97.96 BB, 2 players) Kh

River : (97.96 BB, 2 players) 9s

SB shows Ac Kd (Two Pair, Kings and Nines)
(Pre 75%, Flop 84%, Turn 91%)

Hero shows Ad Qc (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 25%, Flop 16%, Turn 9%)

SB wins 97.96 BB

Getting it in pre is on the thin side, but I don’t see how else to play it. I guess flatting the 3-bet is an option, but even for 50 bigs AQ is a pretty big hand button vs SB.

I got the last of my money in good, but I’m still not sure I played it optimally:

PokerStars – $665+$35|250/500 Ante 60 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 31.23 BB (VPIP: 19.75, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 81)
BB: 19.08 BB (VPIP: 11.67, PFR: 8.77, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 60)
UTG: 14.72 BB (VPIP: 14.55, PFR: 12.73, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 55)
Hero (UTG+1): 16.51 BB
MP: 99.18 BB (VPIP: 21.82, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 55)
MP+1: 24.02 BB (VPIP: 25.45, PFR: 16.36, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 55)
CO: 4.48 BB (VPIP: 17.82, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 202)
BTN: 11.89 BB (VPIP: 21.82, PFR: 16.98, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 55)

8 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.46 BB) Hero has Ah Ks
fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop : (5.46 BB, 2 players) 5h 2h 9c
BB checks, Hero bets 1.8 BB, BB raises to 15.5 BB, Hero calls 12.59 BB and is all-in

Turn : (34.24 BB, 2 players) 7h

River : (34.24 BB, 2 players) 6c

BB shows Th 6h (Flush, Ten High)
(Pre 37%, Flop 49%, Turn 84%)

Hero shows Ah Ks (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 63%, Flop 51%, Turn 16%)

BB wins 34.24 BB

Arguably just shoving pre is better. I do have a raise-fold range from this stack size, though, and I definitely do get three-bet when I open in spots like this. I could also see checking or jamming flop, too. I mean, it’s not like I WANT action from Th 6h.

I’ll be playing again tomorrow starting at 11AM Pacific with the $2000 Super Tuesday replacement. I usually tweet interesting hands while I’m playing, so if you aren’t already, you might want to follow @thinkingpoker.

I had a bit of friction coming into Canada yesterday, nothing too serious, but the most difficult I’ve encountered on any or my trips here. The first customs agent asked me the usual questions but seemed satisfied with my answers and sent me on my way. Thinking I was in the clear, I retrieved my bag and went to leave the airport, handing my declaration form to another customs agent on the way out. The first agent must have marked something on there, because the second did a double take and then sent me to the immigration office.

The agent there was polite and a bit less aggressive than the customs people usually are, which was nice. He asked about how often I came to Canada, how long I planned to stay, and where I planned to stay. He also asked whether poker was my only source of income, and when I mentioned coaching and writing, he asked whether my writing was entirely online. I’m not really sure why that was important, but he told me to leave my bag and have a seat, then he disappeared for at least fifteen minutes.

Finally he returned and told me I’d be allowed in (he never actually inspected my bag). He said they’d had problems with online poker players staying in Canada for months at a time, returning to the US only briefly, and then coming back to Canada again. Apparently my track record of relatively brief visits over the last few years reassured them, and I was allowed into the country. Still, this was a bit of a scare, and also significant for being the first time a customs/immigration officer I’ve dealt with has demonstrated an awareness of the phenomenon of US poker players coming to Canada to play online.

Now that I’m here, it’s great to be playing the SCOOP on the west coast. Event 1 started at 5AM, which was early even for me, but from here on out none of the tournaments starts before 8AM or after 2PM. 8AM might sound early to some of you, but it’s roughly when I tend to wake up anyway, and I’m glad not to have events starting at 5PM and running until 5AM (I skipped several events last year for this reason).

I late registered all three Event 1s and came somewhat close to cashing in the $1K, ultimately busting on a coin flip:

PokerStars – $1000+$50|250/500 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 34.46 BB (VPIP: 26.92, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
MP+1: 26.33 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 11.54, 3Bet Preflop: 21.43, Hands: 26)
MP+2: 25.08 BB (VPIP: 24.44, PFR: 15.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 45)
CO: 41.15 BB (VPIP: 12.33, PFR: 5.48, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 73)
Hero (BTN): 30.1 BB
SB: 13.1 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 11.54, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
BB: 14.84 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 8.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
UTG: 40.98 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 26)
UTG+1: 75.37 BB (VPIP: 26.92, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 26)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has Jh Ac
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 5 BB, fold, fold, CO raises to 41.05 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 25 BB and is all-in

Flop : (62.4 BB, 2 players) 3s 4c 9h

Turn : (62.4 BB, 2 players) 6h

River : (62.4 BB, 2 players) 4s

CO shows 6d 6s (Full House, Sixes full of Fours)
(Pre 55%, Flop 76%, Turn 100%)

Hero shows Jh Ac (One Pair, Fours)
(Pre 45%, Flop 24%, Turn 0%)

CO wins 62.4 BB

Relatively standard I think, though I can see a case for flatting pre-flop as well.

The 6-max progressive knock-out was a lot of fun, and I wish I’d lasted longer in that one. I got off to a pretty good start, three-betting quite a bit against a very active player on my right and generally getting the better of the many pots we played together. Then I lost a chunk running JJ into his QQ. I would have been ready to lose it all, but he just flatted my three-bet out of position, and we didn’t end up getting stacks in post.

I once again miraculously managed not to go broke here:

PokerStars – $1000+$1000+$100|75/150 Ante 20 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 60.97 BB (VPIP: 5.88, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
MP: 282.54 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 22)
CO: 61.31 BB (VPIP: 47.37, PFR: 32.43, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 38)
BTN: 147.22 BB (VPIP: 35.96, PFR: 19.70, 3Bet Preflop: 2.17, Hands: 203)
SB: 77.58 BB (VPIP: 24.50, PFR: 13.91, 3Bet Preflop: 5.13, Hands: 155)
Hero (BB): 61.95 BB

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has Qd Ks
fold, fold, CO raises to 2.16 BB, BTN calls 2.16 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.16 BB

Flop : (7.78 BB, 3 players) 6s Qh As
Hero checks, CO bets 3.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 3.5 BB

Turn : (14.78 BB, 2 players) Qs
Hero checks, CO bets 12.5 BB, Hero calls 12.5 BB

River : (39.78 BB, 2 players) 7s
Hero checks, CO bets 14 BB, Hero calls 14 BB

CO shows Ac Ah (Full House, Aces full of Queens)
(Pre 86%, Flop 95%, Turn 98%)

Hero mucks Qd Ks (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 14%, Flop 5%, Turn 2%)

CO wins 67.78 BB

Villain could have easily shoved the river, and given that there was a $500 bounty for eliminating me, I think he clearly should have.

Ultimately, I was busted by a player who went after my bounty a bit more aggressively:

PokerStars – $1000+$1000+$100|75/150 Ante 20 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 167.27 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
BB: 373.33 BB (VPIP: 41.30, PFR: 34.78, 3Bet Preflop: 40.00, Hands: 47)
UTG: 107.29 BB (VPIP: 52.38, PFR: 40.32, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 63)
MP: 61.73 BB (VPIP: 35.53, PFR: 18.86, 3Bet Preflop: 2.75, Hands: 228)
CO: 68.97 BB (VPIP: 23.30, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 4.30, Hands: 180)
Hero (BTN): 24.38 BB

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has 2c 2h
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 24.25 BB and is all-in, fold, BB calls 23.25 BB

Flop : (49.79 BB, 2 players) Tc Ah Ks

Turn : (49.79 BB, 2 players) 8h

River : (49.79 BB, 2 players) Th

BB shows 8d 2d (Two Pair, Tens and Eights)
(Pre 37%, Flop 15%, Turn 98%)

Hero shows 2c 2h (Two Pair, Tens and Twos)
(Pre 63%, Flop 85%, Turn 2%)

BB wins 49.79 BB

The most interesting pot I played was against Chris Moorman in the $2000 Sunday Million replacement:

PokerStars – $2000+$100|50/100 Ante 10 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (UTG): 135.17 BB
UTG+1: 105.97 BB (VPIP: 38.46, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
MP: 69.55 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 8.89, 3Bet Preflop: 2.22, Hands: 91)
MP+1: 23.7 BB (VPIP: 21.11, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 91)
MP+2: 108.03 BB (VPIP: 31.87, PFR: 19.78, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 91)
CO: 105.24 BB (VPIP: 22.47, PFR: 17.98, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 89)
BTN: 104.23 BB (VPIP: 20.69, PFR: 8.62, 3Bet Preflop: 2.94, Hands: 60)
SB: 103.1 BB (VPIP: 6.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
BB: 95.76 BB (VPIP: 16.44, PFR: 13.70, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 74)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has As Ac
Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop : (8.4 BB, 2 players) 3d 4c 7c
Hero checks, CO bets 4.2 BB, Hero calls 4.2 BB

Turn : (16.8 BB, 2 players) 7s
Hero checks, CO bets 8.4 BB, Hero calls 8.4 BB

River : (33.6 BB, 2 players) Jc
Hero checks, CO bets 22.39 BB, Hero calls 22.39 BB

CO shows 5d 5h (Two Pair, Sevens and Fives)
(Pre 20%, Flop 23%, Turn 14%)

Hero shows As Ac (Two Pair, Aces and Sevens)
(Pre 80%, Flop 77%, Turn 86%)

Hero wins 78.38 BB

It was all downhill from there, though. I was really card dead, barely opening at all and getting three-bet almost every time I did (except when I had Kings, of course!) Eventually I open jammed 13BBs with JJ and lost a flip to AK in the big blind.

Tomorrow is the heads up, which should be a lot of fun!

I was playing a particularly nitty $5/$10/$20 game where pretty much everyone except me was quite reluctant to lose whatever they had on the table. Naturally, I’d been leaning on them, especially the player on my right, even harder than usual. I’d also been catching kind of well, so there were a few pots where I actually had the goods but didn’t go to showdown,which probably made me seem even more aggressive than I was.

Villain open limps the CO, I limp behind with As 8h on the Button, SB folds, BB completes, and the straddle checks.

Flop ($80 in pot) Qs 8d 3s. Checks to me, I bet $20, BB calls, straddle folds, CO raises to $80, I call, BB folds. This is a tricky spot because although CO’s line is pretty suspect and I block several of the strongest hands he’s representing, it’s also a kinda odd spot for him to bluff. Then again, the underbet can induce some weird stuff, especially in a player who’s already annoyed. Plus backdoor nut draw!

Turn ($260 in pot) 8s. That’s the best card in the deck for me, unless it isn’t. Villain checks, and so do I.

River ($260 in pot) Ts. Villain bets $175. I raise to $375. He seems to waffle between calling and folding, counts at another $200, then suddenly grabs more chips and makes it $700 to go. I try to talk to him a bit, don’t pick up much but he definitely doesn’t seem uncomfortable. I fold.

There’s a lot going for a fold here, especially when you realize that if this is a bluff, it would probably be the first time in this guy’s life that he ever three-bet bluff the river. Then again, I have a tendency to bring that out in people!

I’m fine with folding the As here. But the As with a hugely significant blocker, getting better than 2.5:1? Against a player who is visibly annoyed with me? Think I shoulda called this one, but it’s closer than it seems when you just look at the hand details.

For what it’s worth, I did consider jamming as well, as 33 is the hand I’m most likely to lose to if I call, but Q8 and even QQ aren’t out of the question for Villain, and frankly I don’t think he was in the mood to fold a full house to me.

The hand took a long time on the river, so when it’s over there was a lot of speculation about what we had. Someone claimed we both had nothing, someone else insisted we both had big hands. I said something along the lines of, “I folded a big hand. Not a lot of people are good enough to bluff there,” but that didn’t get any kind of reaction from Villain. I have to imagine he would have been sorely tempted to show a bluff at that point (he still had his cards), but he also didn’t muck and then insist he was bluffing, which would be a plausible reaction if he weren’t bluffing, so who’s to say?

If I could have my cards back, I’d call. You?

UTG2 opens to $60, gets four calls, I call with 85s in the BB.

Flop A85r (no backdoor for me), checks to the second caller, who bets $170. I call, everyone else folds.

Turn A. We both check.

River 4.

At this point I’m almost certain he has a bare Ace, and 85 is the absolute worst hand I could have. In fact, my range otherwise consists only of Ax, straights, and flopped sets. In one sense, that makes it an easy bluff with 85, and I shouldn’t even really bet that much as Villain has an easy fold with most Ax (not that he should be betting that on the flop anyway, but this guy would). Then again, LOL at some live player, even a nit (which this guy is) folding trips for one bet on the river. $525 down the drain.

Don’t take the wrong lesson from this. There are plenty of situations where you should be thinking about how you’d play different parts of your range and actively thinking about your best bluffing candidates, using the strength of your range to determine whether you can value bet or what sizing to use, etc. Those are situations where you aren’t sure what your opponent will do with a specific hand, or you aren’t sure what he has. This just wasn’t one of those situations.

UTG is a typical splashy recreational player, with lots of limping and calling pre-flop followed by lots of checking and folding post-flop. He has about $800 in his stack.

HJ is the best of the competition by a long shot. He definitely knows how to take advantage of different types of players by isolating, barreling, floating, squeezing, etc., and he’s definitely made some plays like these against me in good spots. I don’t have enough experience with him to say whether he’s actually balancing against me or whether he’s playing more of a Level 2, “This guy opens a lot so I’m just going to three-bet him with any two” sort of strategy. He’s definitely unbalanced, in a good way, against the less tough competition. I’m playing about $2500, and he covers.

UTG limps for $10. Three players fold, then HJ raises to $40. Hero calls from the BB with Ks Jd. UTG calls.

Flop Kc 7s 6d ($118 in pot). Hero checks, UTG checks, HJ bets $65, Hero calls, UTG folds.

Turn 2s ($248 in pot). Hero checks, HJ bets $125, Hero calls.

River Ts ($498 in pot). Hero checks, HJ bets $400, Hero?

I think the flop and turn play is pretty uncontroversial, but if you have questions, I’m happy to address them.

Post your thoughts and preferred action on the river, and I’ll post my own thoughts as well as the results towards the end of next week.

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If you were to draw a picture of the prototypical recreational player, you might well end up with a picture of this guy. He’s a slightly doughy white guy, late 30s or early 40s, wearing sporty clothes and expensive wrap-around sunglasses on his forehead. We played together the night before at $5/$10, and I got the impression that he thought I was a bit of a bully.

The flop comes Qh Qc 8h. I bet $80, and he raises to $180 pretty quickly. It’s very difficult for me to believe he has a hand here. I mean, maybe a small pair or a flush draw or something, but I could definitely see him doing this as just a straight Level Two “I don’t think you have anything so I’m raising” sort of thing. I contemplate three-betting the flop but, given my backdoors, decide to call instead. I can check-shove turns that improve me, and I can bluff some rivers if he checks back (though I may not need to).

The turn is the 3d. I check, and he bets $320, which solidifies my conviction that he’s just trying to push me out of the pot. The trouble is that I have K-high, no draw, and only about $150 to shove over his bet. I shove anyway.

He groans and asks the dealer, “How much more?”

“Not much more,” she says as she reaches for my chips.

What the fuck!? It’s a little tricky to keep a poker face through her unsolicited and inappropriate commentary. Thankfully he finds the fold button anyway.

I’m sorely tempted to show my hand. It’s the rare case where showing something so wild really can influence the dynamic of the whole table. Ultimately I didn’t do it, though, because I could also feel the desire to brag (which I guess I’m giving into anyway by making this blog post) motivating me.

He open limped the CO for $10, I made it $40 with Ah 5h on the Button, the blinds folded, and he called.

The flop came Kh Qh Ts. He checked, I bet $75 (was experimenting with multiple bet sizes last night), and he called.

The turn was the Jh, he checked, and I bet $75 again because I was mostly targeting two-pair or a low-straight. I didn’t think he’d play much Ax this way, and I blocked a lot of flushes.

He tanked for a while, then raised $200. I was planning to 3-bet to $600, but I took my time, and he started giving off some really blatant weak-means-strong tells. He told I didn’t have anything, that I should just let him win a small pot, etc. At some point he asked if I had an Ace or a 9.

All of that made me aim a little higher, so I popped it to $700. He pushed out a stack worth about $1800, I shoved for his last $600 or so, he quickly called, and I tabled my hand even before the river came down because I thought I had the nuts. The river blanked off, and then he tabled the Th 9h. Even after I saw it, it took me a minute to realized I’d lost.

Despite the blatant tells, I don’t regret my play. I think he could behave the same with a lot of flushes, thinking that I just have an Ace.

The reason I find it interesting is that it reminds me of an important conclusion from Mathematics of Poker that I’d forgotten about entirely until I reread that book. In “Playing Accurately, Part I: Cards Exposed Situations”, Chen and Ankenman demonstrate that there are situations where a player with an obvious (exposed, in their hypothetical) draw actually does better by raising all-in on the flop, knowing he’ll put the rest of his money in from behind (though with sufficient pot odds) rather than calling and giving his opponent the opportunity to bet him out on a blank turn or check-fold when the draw comes in.

Of course there are any number of reasons why that may not be applicable to this hand. It presumes an opponent who will correctly bet the turn when ahead and correctly check-fold when behind. If, as Eddie argues, Villain can be expected to run a big bluff on cards that complete Hero’s draw, then there is more room to outplay him on future streets.

On Calling

I think many commenters are overestimating how easy it will be to outplay Villain on a blank turn, though. Shoving over a turn bet works only if Villain has a lot of air in his range, as he probably isn’t bet-folding a Q or a 9 or a better draw. Calling in hopes of getting there on the river probably requires decent implied odds to be better than getting it in on the flop even if Villain never folds.

I’m not at all sure what would be the best play if Villain checked a blank. I suppose I would opt for a smallish bet of perhaps 1/3 pot, but getting check-shoved is such a disaster that I don’t feel too great about that plan.

I don’t think the best play is particularly clear if the turn is a J or a T, either. Some people seem to want to call down on blank rivers, and I can see why, but Pepito also makes a good point that “villains of these sorts tend to thin hero calling rather than triple barreling with air (particularly in a 3b pot where hero has called a check raise and a second barrel).”

On Shoving

Pepito also asserts that, “shoveling 4.5K into 1.2K pot against a callbox seems terrible– particularly with position.” Having already explained why I don’t see a lot of ways to capitalize on my position, I’ll now address the “callbox” argument.

The tricky thing here is that this hand actually blurs the line between a value bet and a bluff. On the hand, it certainly feels icky to stick in a lot of money with Jack-high against a player who’s shown a willingness to call down extremely light. But what, really, can his looseness do to hurt us?

No one is check-raise-folding the hands that have us in truly bad shape, which would be nut flush draws, two pairs, and sets. I wouldn’t really expect Qx to take this line either – people might check-raise-call it, or they might not check-raise it, but I don’t see it getting check-raise-folded.

So what can Villain’s looseness add to his calling range, and how can that hurt us? All he can do is start calling with really weak hands, and Hero is a pretty big favorite against those, as Sean F. points out. Hero has 63.5% equity against 9d 8d and 76% against 8s 7s.

There’s a lot of talk about not wanting to put your stack in “on a flip”, but that’s a misleading way of framing the situation. What you really need to consider is not just the end result – how much equity do you have when the money goes in – but rather how can your actions manipulate the situation to give you more or less EV.

Regardless of your flop action, there are a lot of scenarios where you end up playing big pots against the top of his range. Against the bottom of his range, you’re a solid favorite, and raising the flop can only lead to good things. Villain can either forfeit a significant amount of equity by folding, or he can put his money in from behind and lose the ability to play well on future streets (he might continue bluffing a spade with air, but will he bet/stack off with 98?).

A lot of the value in calling comes from inducing bluffs. Maybe we get to shove over a bet on a blank turn, and maybe we induce some big bluffs when we hit.

Results

Raising less than all in still leaves open the possibility of inducing a bluff. If Villain check-raises the flop with more than just pairs and draws, then there’s a real chance he’ll four-bet-fold some of that air. He’s shown a propensity for this sort of play in wide range situations before.

That last point was the deciding factor for me. I three-bet the flop $1300, Villain made it $3100, I shoved, and he did some thinking (about what, I’m not sure – whatever it was presumably should have happened before he four-bet) and then called with what turned out to be Ad Kd. That was an outcome I hadn’t anticipated, but again I’m a 65% favorite in the case where Villain decides to make a really loose call, which means that getting it in on the flop is better for me than shoving over the check-raise and having Villain fold (though I would have preferred a fold to the five-bet).

The board ran out blank, and Villain collected a massive pot with Ace-high while the table collectively gawked. I warned you this was a bad beat post!

One example, he bet-called 99 vs a huge check-shove on Qh Th 5d and won vs Ah Kh. Exploitively, it may be a correct call because that player probably does have a draw there all the time, but winning in spots like that has definitely emboldened him.

His strategy probably OK against the weaker regs, but I’ve been punishing him for it. That’s not to say I’ve never backed down when he floated or raised me in spots where I suspected he was unbalanced, but but we’ve tangled a fair bit in spots where we both had wide ranges and the money has on balance flown to me.

Hero is in the straddle with about $4800. Action folds to Villain in SB, who opens for $60. BB folds, Hero makes it $160 with Js Ts, Villain calls.

Flop ($323 in pot) Qs 9s 6d. Villain checks, Hero bets $200, Villain raises to $500, Hero?

Please comment below with your thoughts and preferred action. If you want to do anything other than shove, you should also consider your plan should you see the following turn cards:

1) 3s

2) 3h

3) Td

I’ll respond to comments throughout the week and post my own thoughts as well as results on Friday.

UTG opens to $40, MP calls, I call with 4c 2c in the BB.

Flop ($125 in pot) 9c 5s 3h. I check, UTG bets $75, MP folds, I raise to $275, UTG makes it $640, I call.

Turn ($1405 in pot) 4h. I bet $800, UTG calls.

River ($3005 in pot) As. I shove for ~$3000, UTG calls with 99.

Pre-flop isn’t exactly standard, but MP was the weakest player at the table (overly loose, sizing tells, etc.), and although UTG seemed like a pretty decent player, I knew that he wasn’t one of the best regs, because even though I don’t play at Maryland Live that often I do know who the best pros there are.

I love my hand on this flop. As deep as we are, I’m more excited to have hit this than to have hit bottom set. The only hands I’d rather hold are top set, 76 with a backdoor, or 64 with a backdoor, in that order. This is a very easy check-raise. If you’re not clear on why, put yourself in UTG’s shoes and imagine how you’d feel about playing for stacks with anything less than 55 (which may not even be in his UTG range).

To be honest, I was skeptical of Villain’s three-bet. I’d actually won another pot recently at the must move table (Villain was already in the main game so wasn’t around to see this) by min-4-bet bluffing against another reg in a very similar spot. I can’t see him doing this with the intention to get stacks in unless he has a set or a big draw, and many players won’t take this line with those hands anyway. Because I had such a good draw, though, I decided to peel and pull the trigger on a later street.

The turn is a great card for my purposes, because it completes the most obvious draw. I can’t definitively exclude 76s from Villain’s range, but I had my doubts as to whether he’d open it pre and whether he’d three-bet the flop. I think he should do both, but even many pretty good mid-stakes live pros are too nitty about that sort of thing.

My biggest mistake here is the sizing. I planned to shove any river that didn’t pair the board (maybe not hearts either, just because he might not expect me to jam non-flushes for value although I would), and consequently I should have set up sizing so that I was betting more similar percentages of the pot on both streets. I think $1000 into $1400 on the turn and then $2800 into $3400 on the river would have worked out better.

Frankly, I think his river call is pretty bad. Most of my semi-bluffs have gotten there, and on this run-out I’m not shoving a lower set for value. This is what happens when you just think about “bluffs” generically rather than considering which exact hands your opponent would bluff with.

I was initially excited not only to win the pot but also to have a player sitting two seats to my right who still had me covered! As tempting as the prospect of winning a $20K pot was, he proved pretty nitty and it was getting late, so after an hour of unsuccessfully trying to provoke a confrontation with him, I cashed out and called it a night.

Best Strategy

Nate and I talk strategy on just about every episode, but of course the show is at its very best strategy-wise when the game’s top players share their wisdom.

Ben Sulsky – It was a great privilege to talk about game theory (and philosophy) with a player who is blazing new frontiers in poker strategy.

Mike McDonald – Our conversation with Mike was great in a lot of ways, but among other things he was generous enough to share some deep thoughts on tournament strategy, including the underappreciated “hero check”.

Fascinating Stories

My favorite guests are not only great players (sometimes they aren’t players at all) but also fascinating people who open up about their struggles, their successes, and unique poker careers.

John the Lawyer – A long career in big live games, including a lot of private games, is bound to produce some great stories, and John tells them well. If you overlooked this episode because you didn’t recognize the name, go back and listen. There’s some solid strategy discussion in here as well.

Dara O’Kearney – Going pro later in life gave Dara a unique perspective on the poker world, and his Irish blood gives him the ability to share his thoughts with both humor and deep insight into many facets of the game, including staking.

Terrence Chan – Terrence not only shares stories from his poker and mixed martial arts careers but also gives some insight into the state of regulated online poker in Nevada. This interview is particularly interesting in light of what happened with Ultimate Poker just a few months later.

Ari Engel – Ari reveals that the life of the circuit grinder isn’t always a glamorous one. Even one of the most successful player on the WSOP circuit has to live a nitcast-approved lifestyle to keep his dream alive.

Alex Fitzgerald – Alex is brutally honest about the highs and lows of his career, including his struggle with drugs and his new life in Costa Rica.

Just Plain Fun

Nate and I rarely have as much fun as when we get to catch up with some of the great friends we’ve made through the podcast, and when we’re having the most fun, that’s usually when the show is the most fun to listen to.

Live From Las Vegas featuring Carlos Welch – One of the perks of our relationship with PokerNews was the opportunity to record together in person (a rare treat in itself) from the halls of the World Series of Poker. Carlos Welch joins us for this entertaining episode that includes a lot of strategy discussion from non-hold ’em games.

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UTG straddles, there are two limps, I make it $100 with Kc Qh on the button, Villain calls from the SB, the BB and straddle call, and one of the limpers calls.

Flop ($515 in pot) Ks 4d 3d. Checks to Hero, Hero bets $250, SB calls, everyone else folds.

Turn ($1015 in pot) Jc. Villain bets $500. Hero?

Post your comments and suggestions here. I’ll do my best to respond to comments throughout the week and then post my own thoughts on or about Friday.

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For just $2.99, you can purchase The Thinking Poker Diaries, Volume 1 directly from me (you’ll get an EPUB, a PDF, and a Kindle file) or from Amazon (Kindle file only).

There’s a substantial preview available on Amazon, but for a better idea of what to expect, here’s the Table of Contents:

Introduction
How I Became A Poker Player
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Day One
Three-Betting Light
Day Two
The Bubble
Day Three
Playing a Short Stack
Day Four
More Stories! More Strategy! More Poker!

For those who do read it, please star & review on Amazon and recommend to your friends. I deliberately made the book very inexpensive because I’m more interested in reaching a wide audience than in maximizing my profit.

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Thanks!

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It’s often correct to fold a weak flush draw to a bet and a raise, but this tough player had really been hammering on the weaker spots at the table, raising every limp, etc. The pre-flop raiser had nearly $5,000 in front of him and was quite unlikely to go to the felt with any hand that he would raise in early position. I knew this, and I strongly suspected that the button did as well. He and I had a little over $7,500 remaining in our stacks, and I had just enough of a hand to put him to the test.

As always, I’m eager for any feedback or suggestions for topics you’d like to see covered in a future article.

The Main got off to a good start. I felt much more confident playing with the 300 – 400BB stacks than most of my opponents, and I was really leaning on my position to take down pots. That set me up for this spot:

PokerStars – $5000+$200|30/60 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 404.28 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 8.89, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 45)
MP: 321.18 BB (VPIP: 12.00, PFR: 6.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 50)
MP+1: 336.22 BB (VPIP: 38.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 50)
Hero (MP+2): 329 BB
CO: 292.92 BB (VPIP: 22.45, PFR: 20.41, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 50)
BTN: 333.02 BB (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 3.92, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 51)
SB: 300.98 BB (VPIP: 18.37, PFR: 12.24, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 49)
BB: 456.18 BB (VPIP: 18.37, PFR: 12.24, 3Bet Preflop: 12.00, Hands: 49)
UTG: 240.8 BB (VPIP: 20.14, PFR: 17.96, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 292)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Jd Jh
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2.52 BB, Hero raises to 7.55 BB, CO calls 7.55 BB, fold, SB calls 7.05 BB, fold, MP+1 calls 5.03 BB

Flop : (31.2 BB, 4 players) Ts Js 8c
SB checks, MP+1 checks, Hero bets 18.5 BB, fold, SB raises to 48.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 321.45 fold

Hero wins 128.2 BB

I’m not entirely sure that shoving is the best play here, but I like it. I don’t really see Villain being on a stone bluff, I don’t think he’s cold calling the 3bet with Q9s or 97s, and there’s only one combination of JTs out there, so I think he very likely has either a lower set or a draw. If he has TT, he may not expect me to just shove with a bigger hand, in which case he may call. I don’t want to just call, because so many turns will be tough for me to play, I don’t think a smaller raise will induce him to shove a combo draw, and honestly getting him to fold a hand like Ks Qs or As Qs is not such a bad outcome for me.

He tanked for a really long time before folding. I think if it weren’t so early in such a major tournament he probably would have called.

Not long after that, I played two significant pots against the player on my left. The first was a small one but set up the second a bit:

PokerStars – $5000+$200|50/100 Ante 10 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 230.54 BB (VPIP: 16.90, PFR: 8.45, 3Bet Preflop: 2.94, Hands: 71)
MP+1: 170.58 BB (VPIP: 13.16, PFR: 6.58, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, Hands: 76)
MP+2: 188.28 BB (VPIP: 30.26, PFR: 17.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 76)
Hero (CO): 243.53 BB
BTN: 180.28 BB (VPIP: 24.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.71, Hands: 76)
SB: 222.74 BB (VPIP: 23.38, PFR: 5.19, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 77)
BB: 194.5 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
UTG: 269.89 BB (VPIP: 21.33, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 75)
UTG+1: 163.1 BB (VPIP: 21.34, PFR: 18.71, 3Bet Preflop: 10.49, Hands: 318)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has Kc Qd
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, BTN calls 2 BB, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop : (7.4 BB, 3 players) Kd 2d 8c
BB checks, Hero bets 3.7 BB, BTN calls 3.7 BB, fold

Turn : (14.8 BB, 2 players) 4h
Hero bets 9.36 BB, BTN calls 9.36 BB

River : (33.52 BB, 2 players) 8d
Hero checks, BTN bets 24 BB, fold

BTN wins 33.52 BB

Then he got me good with:

PokerStars – $5000+$200|125/250 Ante 30 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 62.36 BB (VPIP: 22.09, PFR: 14.11, 3Bet Preflop: 2.74, Hands: 165)
MP+1: 62.81 BB (VPIP: 18.34, PFR: 9.47, 3Bet Preflop: 2.47, Hands: 170)
MP+2: 84.74 BB (VPIP: 27.98, PFR: 16.07, 3Bet Preflop: 5.06, Hands: 170)
Hero (CO): 93.22 BB
BTN: 139.29 BB (VPIP: 31.36, PFR: 18.93, 3Bet Preflop: 7.23, Hands: 170)
SB: 57.36 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 7.65, 3Bet Preflop: 1.15, Hands: 171)
BB: 53.99 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 6.73, 3Bet Preflop: 1.89, Hands: 104)
UTG: 115.56 BB (VPIP: 18.93, PFR: 10.65, 3Bet Preflop: 7.50, Hands: 169)
UTG+1: 76.04 BB (VPIP: 20.10, PFR: 17.08, 3Bet Preflop: 8.84, Hands: 412)

9 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.58 BB) Hero has Kc 9h
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, BTN calls 2 BB, SB calls 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop : (9.08 BB, 4 players) 5c 3s Ks
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 4.54 BB, BTN calls 4.54 BB, fold, fold

Turn : (18.16 BB, 2 players) 7c
Hero bets 9.11 BB, BTN calls 9.11 BB

River : (36.38 BB, 2 players) Kh
Hero checks, BTN bets 28 BB, Hero calls 28 BB

BTN shows Kd Js (Three of a Kind, Kings) (Pre 73%, Flop 86%, Turn 93%)
Hero mucks Kc 9h (Three of a Kind, Kings) (Pre 27%, Flop 14%, Turn 7%)
BTN wins 92.38 BB

That left me on a short stack, which is where I lingered for the next few hours. I didn’t get a lot of big hands or good shoving opportunities, but I was fortunate to win the first three times that I was all-in and called.

The two times that I did pick up big hands were at inconvenient times, with an awkward stack and a raise from an UTG player in front of me. When I had KK, the raiser called a small 3-bet and check-folded a rag flop. I felt like it was very obvious I had a huge hand, but I didn’t see any value in checking. The second time I had AK and the raiser called a small 3-bet and check-shoved a rag flop.

The hand I ultimately stacked off with warrants some discussion. Villain was not overly aggressive in general, but this wasn’t the first time he’d opened when I was in the BB, and many players will correctly open lighter with a short stack in the blind:

PokerStars – $5000+$200|400/800 Ante 100 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+2: 49.8 BB (VPIP: 12.86, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 70)
CO: 25.35 BB (VPIP: 24.40, PFR: 21.84, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 211)
BTN: 84.78 BB (VPIP: 12.16, PFR: 10.81, 3Bet Preflop: 5.71, Hands: 74)
SB: 50.58 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 31.67, 3Bet Preflop: 11.54, Hands: 60)
Hero (BB): 14.63 BB
UTG: 25.1 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 10.91, 3Bet Preflop: 4.60, Hands: 165)
UTG+1: 220.18 BB (VPIP: 20.55, PFR: 10.96, 3Bet Preflop: 6.98, Hands: 74)
MP: 28.41 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 9.31, 3Bet Preflop: 4.03, Hands: 250)
MP+1: 112.6 BB (VPIP: 21.11, PFR: 17.53, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 200)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has 5h Ah
UTG raises to 2.19 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 1.69 BB, Hero calls 1.19 BB

Flop : (7.69 BB, 3 players) 5d 9h 7c
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets 3.09 BB, fold, Hero raises to 12.32 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 9.22 BB

Turn : (32.32 BB, 2 players) Kd

River : (32.32 BB, 2 players) 4c

Hero shows 5h Ah (One Pair, Fives) (Pre 34%, Flop 25%, Turn 11%)
UTG shows Qs Qd (One Pair, Queens) (Pre 66%, Flop 75%, Turn 89%)
UTG wins 32.32 BB

Against a calling range of {77+,76s,87s,98s,T9s}, I have 21.5% equity in a 32BB pot. When he folds, I win 11BB. If I did the algebra correctly, I need him to fold about 60% of the time.

That calling range is 3.5% of the deck, so I need him to show up with 9% when he bets flop. In a heads up pot, I’m sure he would. I don’t know how much the SB’s call will deter UTG from continuation betting with air, but it may well be enough to make shoving a bad idea.

Villain is a well-known Australian pro, a very successful tournament player whose specialty is NLHE but whom I’ve often encountered in non-hold ’em games and surely has a better idea of what he’s doing than I do.

PokerStars Hand #121971038991: Tournament #948919234, $500+$30 USD Razz Limit – Level IX (300/600) – 2014/09/23 17:04:54 ET
Table ‘948919234 12’ 8-max
Seat 1: AceSpades11 (6520 in chips)
Seat 2: V-MAX261 (14197 in chips)
Seat 3: thegosu2 (4974 in chips)
Seat 4: kalthor (6978 in chips)
Seat 5: Koziammo (13562 in chips)
Seat 6: dimmmmi1 (7353 in chips)
Seat 7: Andy McLEOD (13680 in chips)
Seat 8: foucault82 (8505 in chips)

*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to AceSpades11 [Qs]
Dealt to V-MAX261 [2s]
Dealt to thegosu2 [Jh]
Dealt to kalthor [8h]
Dealt to Koziammo [6d]
Dealt to dimmmmi1 [Tc]
Dealt to Andy McLEOD [5c]
Dealt to foucault82 [5h Qc 2h]
AceSpades11: brings in for 90
V-MAX261: folds
thegosu2: folds
kalthor: folds
Koziammo: folds
dimmmmi1: folds
Andy McLEOD: raises 210 to 300
foucault82: calls 300
AceSpades11: folds
*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to Andy McLEOD [5c] [9h]
Dealt to foucault82 [5h Qc 2h] [7s]
foucault82: bets 300
Andy McLEOD: calls 300
*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to Andy McLEOD [5c 9h] [5s]
Dealt to foucault82 [5h Qc 2h 7s] [Ks]
foucault82: bets 600
Andy McLEOD: raises 600 to 1200
foucault82: calls 600
*** 6th STREET ***
Dealt to Andy McLEOD [5c 9h 5s] [Js]
Dealt to foucault82 [5h Qc 2h 7s Ks] [3c]
foucault82: bets 600
Andy McLEOD: calls 600
*** RIVER ***
Dealt to foucault82 [5h Qc 2h 7s Ks 3c] [4s]
foucault82: checks
Andy McLEOD: bets 600
foucault82: raises 600 to 1200
Andy McLEOD: calls 600
*** SHOW DOWN ***
foucault82: shows [5h Qc 2h 7s Ks 3c 4s] (Lo: 7,5,4,3,2)
Andy McLEOD: mucks [2c 8s 5c 9h 5s Js As] (Lo: 9,8,5,2,A)
foucault82 collected 7770 from pot

If you look at the situation on 3rd street, the action folds to him with just a 2 and a Q behind him. Between the antes and the bring-in, there’s 570 in the pot, and his raise risks 300 to steal it. That means that between myself and the bring-in, we need to defend at least two-thirds of the time to make Andy indifferent from raising with any two down cards.

Because I’m showing a 2 while the bring-in is showing a Queen, my range is much stronger than his and consequently the majority of that burden falls on me. To keep it simple, let’s just say that I need to defend twice as many hands as he, or about 44%.

There are four As, four 3s, four 4s, three 5s, three 6s, four 7s, three 8s, and three 9s left among the 44 unexposed cards. Thus the odds are (28/44) * (20/43) ~ 36% that I’ll have three to a 9 when I’m showing a 2. There’s an additional (15/44) * (18/43) ~ 14% chance that I’ll two cards to a wheel plus a T or worse. Playing all of those hands to the raise would have me defending 50%, which is a bit too much.

I’m not entirely sure whether calling with a Q and a wheel card is worse than calling with a pair and a wheel card (in which case I’d block a strong card from the opener’s range), and I don’t think I need to do both. So it’s possible that this should be a fold on third, but I think it’s close.

Perhaps you can see where this is going. Much as in hold ’em, we’re going to end up with an aggressive late position dynamic here where all players have a lot of incentive to play marginal hands.

My bet on fourth street is mandatory. Even though Andy has not caught a complete brick, he may fold now if I caught him stealing a particularly weak hand or if the 9 paired him, and even if he does not fold I have 37% equity against four to a 9.

It’s possible that I err in betting fifth street. When we both brick, my equity drops to 30%, and Andy is savvy enough to recognize that I probably two-bet the better hands in my range on third street, which means that if he actually has four to a 9, especially when he pairs a baby, there’s a good chance he’s ahead, and he raises for value. I have to call. Weaker Razz players won’t raise here but may bet when checked to, which makes betting much more attractive against them.

After catching well on 6th, I’m a slight favorite and can bet.

Even though I make a lock hand on the river, I check because I know he’s drawing. Although he will check some hands that would call a bet, I also think he’ll bluff some bricks and bet some worse hands for value.

I’m curious about his river bet. I probably have to call no matter what, because of how easily he could make two-pair, but if he’s going to pay off a check-raise, then he loses two bets when I improve as opposed to rarely winning more than one when I do not (occasionally he picks off a check-raise bluff). He can assume that I have four to at least a 97, and against his board I can confidently raise any 8, so without crunching the numbers, my hunch is that he needs to assume I’m betting some of my stronger hands on the river to make bet-calling a 98 a good idea.

PokerStars – $200+$15|15000/30000 Ante 3750 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 32.33 BB (VPIP: 35.14, PFR: 27.78, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 37)
MP+1: 10.99 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 30)
CO: 7.48 BB (VPIP: 8.11, PFR: 5.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
BTN: 63.88 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 10)
SB: 62.6 BB (VPIP: 19.48, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 77)
Hero (BB): 42.1 BB
UTG: 19.66 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG+1: 8.58 BB (VPIP: 21.62, PFR: 10.81, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 37)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has Kh Qh
fold, UTG+1 raises to 8.46 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 7.96 BB, Hero raises to 41.97 BB and is all-in, SB calls 33.52 BB

Flop : (93.4 BB, 3 players) 2d 4s Ks

Turn : (93.4 BB, 3 players) Kd

River : (93.4 BB, 3 players) 7c

SB shows Ac Kc (Three of a Kind, Kings)
Main Pot [26.37 BB]: (Pre 35%, Flop 78%, Turn 81%)
Side Pot [67.03 BB]: (Pre 71%, Flop 87%, Turn 86%)

Hero shows Kh Qh (Three of a Kind, Kings)
Main Pot [26.37 BB]: (Pre 24%, Flop 13%, Turn 14%)
Side Pot [67.03 BB]: (Pre 29%, Flop 13%, Turn 14%)

UTG+1 shows 9c 9d (Two Pair, Kings and Nines)
Main Pot [26.37 BB]: (Pre 41%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)

SB wins 93.4 BB

Basically a short stack shoves in early position for about 8 BBs, the SB calls, and I’m in the BB with KQs. The SB has me covered. My in-game thinking was that there’s a lot of money in the pot, I’m a solid favorite vs the short stack’s jamming range, the SB should have a healthy call-folding range, and I’ll be in OK shape even if the SB called.

After actually quantifying all of those assumptions, it seems like they were all slightly skewed in the wrong direction, and taken together they turn this into a pretty bad shove, especially at this stage of a major tournament.

For one thing, I’m not a favorite vs the short stack. I gave him all broadway hands, all Aces, all pairs, and some of the better suited connectors and I’m almost exactly 50/50. I don’t know that that range is exactly right, but fidgeting with it a bit didn’t change my equity by more than 1%.

I’m also in pretty bad shape when SB does call. Against {TT+,AJs+,AQo+}, I have less than 33% equity (which if I’d really thought about his calling range I would have realized in game, didn’t really need Slice for that one). I’m used to that being “good enough” but in a dry sidepot it’s a lot worse than when there are blinds and antes cushioning your fall.

It turns out that I show a small profit, about half a BB, if SB folds 2/3 of the time. The calling range I gave him was about 5%, and given the cards I’m holding he’ll actually have a hand in that range about 4% of the time (disregarding any blocker effects from the other player’s shoving range, which is admittedly Ace-heavy).

A generous range for his first call is all the pairs plus the better broadways and A9s. That has him folding about 2/3 of the time to my shove. However, this assumes that he never shoves some hands, like medium pairs, that he really shouldn’t be trying to induce or call-fold. Take those out of his calling range and my shove becomes a lot less good.

And all of that, with the generous assumptions, is still only enough to make this slightly +cEV, which for risking the last of my chips at this stage of the tournament is simply not good enough.

Of course a bad beat would have been disappointing, but it’s much more of a bummer to realize I busted on a bad play. At least I learned something, though I’m a little embarrassed that my instincts were so off in the first place.

This was from the $215 10-minute levels NLHE 6-max WCOOP event. Villain is Philipp “philbort” Gruissem. As many of you know I’m pretty stubborn about folding my BB to small pre-flop raises and also folding to smallish barrels once I get any piece of the board. When I see the flop with such a wide range, even a gutshot is in the top 2/3 of range, and then I turn a pair…. I still think it’s possible Villain has air, but I don’t know how likely it is that he’ll fire the river with that, so I chose instead to make what I’m sure was a very confusing shove for him. He tanked all the way down literally to the last second before calling with a hand that I doubt he was going to bet on the river. Although maybe he was, to be honest it is still very likely to be good, and a player as good as Philbort should be able to recognize and act on that.

PokerStars – $200+$15|500/1000 Ante 125 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 59.04 BB
MP: 35.77 BB
CO: 27.02 BB
BTN: 29.05 BB
SB: 46.6 BB
Hero (BB): 83.28 BB

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has Ts 9c
fold, MP raises to 2.25 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.25 BB

Flop : (5.75 BB, 2 players) Ks 5c Jc
Hero checks, MP bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

Turn : (11.75 BB, 2 players) 9d
Hero checks, MP bets 6 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

River : (23.75 BB, 2 players) 9h
Hero bets 71.91 BB and is all-in, MP calls 24.4 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Ts 9c (Three of a Kind, Nines) (Pre 34%, Flop 18%, Turn 11%)
MP shows Kh Qh (Two Pair, Kings and Nines) (Pre 66%, Flop 82%, Turn 89%)
Hero wins 72.54 BB

PokerStars – $200+$15|60/120 Ante 15 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 17.19 BB
SB: 25.44 BB
BB: 69.54 BB
UTG: 143.37 BB
UTG+1: 68.83 BB
Hero (MP): 170.98 BB
MP+1: 67.21 BB
MP+2: 81.08 BB
CO: 120.99 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has Kh Ac
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop : (7.63 BB, 3 players) Kc 7h 7c
BB checks, Hero bets 3.81 BB, fold, BB raises to 9.58 BB, Hero calls 5.78 BB

Turn : (26.79 BB, 2 players) 6c
BB bets 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB

River : (50.79 BB, 2 players) Qs
BB bets 15.63 BB, Hero raises to 147.27 BB and is all-in, fold

Hero wins 82.04 BB

I had Villain covered by a lot, so my shove was actually for about 55 BB total, or 40 BB more to him.

PokerStars – $200+$15|50/100 Ante 10 NL (4 max) – Holdem – 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 121.31 BB (VPIP: 44.32, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 88)
Hero (CO): 78.18 BB
BTN: 146.22 BB (VPIP: 41.33, PFR: 28.19, 3Bet Preflop: 17.86, Hands: 156)
SB: 22.06 BB (VPIP: 46.36, PFR: 29.80, 3Bet Preflop: 1.75, Hands: 156)

4 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.9 BB) Hero has Qc Jd
Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop : (4.9 BB, 2 players) 5s 5h 2s
BB checks, Hero bets 2.45 BB, BB calls 2.45 BB

Turn : (9.8 BB, 2 players) 8d
BB checks, Hero checks

River : (9.8 BB, 2 players) Qs
BB checks, Hero bets 5.88 BB, BB raises to 19.88 BB, Hero calls 14 BB

BB shows Td As (One Pair, Fives) (Pre 58%, Flop 78%, Turn 86%)
Hero shows Qc Jd (Two Pair, Queens and Fives) (Pre 42%, Flop 22%, Turn 14%)
Hero wins 49.56 BB

To be honest I’m not sure whether the results corroborate my call or not. I’d expect him to bet anything without showdown value on the river, so for him to be bluffing, he has to be taking something that had some showdown value vs my turn check-back range and turning it into a bluff. On the other hand, I also think he’s unlikely to check a flush or trips (and certainly to check-raise trips). So I basically just decided that he’d be sufficiently weighted towards the bluffs. As it turns out, though, he had a pretty ideal bluffing hand, so it really doesn’t prove that he’ll be bluffing a lot in this spot.

PokerStars – $665+$35|200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 73.5 BB
Hero (UTG): 107.43 BB
UTG+1: 45.14 BB
MP: 128.49 BB
MP+1: 145.05 BB
MP+2: 87.37 BB
CO: 85.57 BB
BTN: 299.2 BB
SB: 95.52 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has Ks Ah
Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 13.13 BB, CO raises to 23.5 BB, Hero raises to 107.31 BB and is all-in, CO calls 61.94 BB and is all-in

Flop : (173.51 BB, 2 players) 3s 8c Js

Turn : (173.51 BB, 2 players) 9h

River : (173.51 BB, 2 players) 8h

Hero shows Ks Ah (One Pair, Eights) (Pre 7%, Flop 6%, Turn 0%)
CO shows Ad Ac (Two Pair, Aces and Eights) (Pre 93%, Flop 94%, Turn 100%)
CO wins 173.51 BB

Pre Flop: (t7500) Hero is SB with 8 T 2 A
UTG raises to t10000, 2 folds, Hero calls t7500, BB calls t5000

Flop: (t30000) K Q 2 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets t20000, Hero raises to t90000, BB folds, UTG raises to t148555 all in, Hero calls t44768 all in

Turn: (t299536) 9 (2 players – 2 are all in)

River: (t299536) 4 (2 players – 2 are all in)

Poker Stars $300+$20 Limit Stud Hi/Lo Tournament – t100/t200 Limit + t20 – 7 players – View hand 2576621

DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Seat 1: t4010 M = 13.83
Seat 2: t7900 M = 27.24
Seat 3: t6091 M = 21.00
Seat 4: t7605 M = 26.22
Seat 5: t4676 M = 16.12
Hero (): t5651 M = 19.49
Seat 8: t2151 M = 7.42

3rd Street: (1.4 SB)
Seat 1: xx xx 5____Seat 1 completes____Seat 1 calls
Seat 2: xx xx 8____Seat 2 folds
Seat 3: xx xx T____Seat 3 folds
Seat 4: xx xx K____Seat 4 folds
Seat 5: xx xx A____Seat 5 raises
Hero: 4 5 2___Hero brings in for $30___Hero calls
Seat 8: xx xx 8____Seat 8 folds

4th Street: (7.4 SB) (3 players)
Seat 1: xx xx 5 J____Seat 1 folds
Seat 5: xx xx A 6____Seat 5 bets
Hero: 4 5 2 4___Hero calls

5th Street: (4.7 BB) (2 players)
Seat 5: xx xx A 6 3____Seat 5 bets____Seat 5 calls
Hero: 4 5 2 4 3___Hero raises

6th Street: (8.7 BB) (2 players)
Seat 5: xx xx A 6 3 K____Seat 5 checks____Seat 5 calls
Hero: 4 5 2 4 3 9___Hero bets

7th Street: (10.7 BB) (2 players)
Seat 5: 5 5 A 6 3 K xx____Seat 5 checks____Seat 5 calls
Hero: 4 5 2 4 3 9 3___Hero bets

I’m a novice Stud/8 player. I find it interesting, I play it occasionally, I’ve studied it a bit, but I don’t have an expert’s grasp on what is a very nuanced game. So take everything I say with a larger grain of salt than usual.

Third Street – I very rarely open complete. I prefer not to give away anything about my hand before others have acted. There might be a case for three-betting this, but it’s a hand that plays well multi-way, I don’t really think Seat 1 is going to fold anyway, and I’m not going to be more than slight equity favorite. Especially in a tournament, I think it’s best not to bloat the pot on third.

Fourth Street – Now may be the time to raise and drive out Seat 1. However, he may fold anyway, and I’m not eager to shovel in money against Seat 5.

Fifth Street – I’m still not a favorite, but my thinking was that my equity was good enough to start putting pressure on him. In retrospect, I don’t think he’s folding any run out unless maybe I catch an A, in which case he folds correctly. It’s just too hard for me to have him beat on both directions. Even if he has doubts about his low, there’s some chance that he can win the high with no pair in the event that I have a better low.

Sixth Street – See above. I’d be better off taking a free card.

Seventh Street – I think a lot of people may miss this value bet. Hero’s high hand isn’t especially strong, and Villain could easily have a low, so it may seem like you should check. But Villain is definitely going to bet hands that scoop you anyway, and you can’t fold to a bet, so that bet is going in the pot anyway if you’re getting scooped. You might worry about getting raised, but realistically it’s very hard for Villain to raise your bet because it’s so hard for him to have a strong two-way hand, especially since Hero could easily have a wheel. If Villain has a low, it’s tough for him to also have your high beat, so in actuality you have very little to lose by betting, and it gives Villain a chance to call for half when his low draw missed. I think it’s possible to be called here even by AK high (which goes back to why the fifth and sixth street aggression was a mistake).

PokerStars – $300+$20|5/5 Ante 300 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 2476.4 BB
UTG: 8686.2 BB
UTG+1: 10924 BB
MP: 4431.4 BB
MP+1: 5299.6 BB
MP+2: 11989.8 BB
CO: 3856.2 BB
Hero (BTN): 8377.2 BB
SB: 6175 BB

9 players post ante of 60 BB, SB posts SB 1 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 542 BB) Hero has Ad Td
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2 BB, MP+2 raises to 548 BB, fold, Hero calls 548 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop : (1640 BB, 2 players) Qc 2d 4d
MP+2 checks, Hero checks

Turn : (1640 BB, 2 players) 5d
MP+2 checks, Hero bets 1128 BB, MP+2 raises to 2413.6 BB, Hero calls 1285.6 BB

River : (6467.2 BB, 2 players) 5s
MP+2 bets 8968.2 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 5355.6 BB and is all-in

MP+2 shows Jd Ks (One Pair, Fives) (Pre 38%, Flop 17%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows Ad Td (Flush, Ace High) (Pre 62%, Flop 83%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 17178.4 BB

And here’s the really gross hand that I mentioned on Twitter, the one that caused me to bubble the $215 Heads Up NLHE:

PokerStars – $200+$15|25/50 NL (2 max) – Holdem – 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 129.14 BB (VPIP: 82.61, PFR: 52.17, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 30)
Hero (BB): 70.86 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ah Kh
SB raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 6 BB, SB calls 4 BB

Flop : (12 BB, 2 players) 2h 5d 4h
Hero checks, SB checks

Turn : (12 BB, 2 players) Ad
Hero bets 7.2 BB, SB raises to 17.26 BB, Hero calls 10.06 BB

River : (46.52 BB, 2 players) 3d
Hero bets 47.6 BB and is all-in, SB calls 47.6 BB

Hero shows Ah Kh (Straight, Five High) (Pre 77%, Flop 83%, Turn 93%)
SB shows 6c Ks (Straight, Six High) (Pre 23%, Flop 17%, Turn 7%)
SB wins 141.72 BB

As I was on his immediate left and he was trying to play every pot, we clashed a lot throughout the tournament. Early on he folded to my 3- and 4-bets or my c-bets, but eventually he shifted that dynamic by check-raising me twice on pretty dry flops. Both times I suspected that he had nothing but folded anyway as I was near the bottom of my range. If I’d gotten into a pissing contest with him, he may well have won. Instead I tried to keep 3-betting and barreling good ranges, and eventually it paid off.

This may seem like a very straight-forward hand, but I think when people know that they’re up against a very aggressive player who tries to win every pot, they’re tempted to get fancy when they turn the nuts and try to induce bluffs or something. I know I have that temptation, anyway. But that’s rarely the best way to play the nuts, and a line that polarizes your range can easily lead to stubborn call downs from these players.

One final points concerns the sizing. In The Mathematics of Poker, Chen and Ankenman prove that, “When the game is static and one player is clairvoyant, the optimal bet size is to make the pot grow by the same amount on each street, such that on the last street the entire stack has been bet” (p. 241). Although that doesn’t perfectly describe this situation, I think it’s a close enough extrapolation to make this half-pot, half-pot, half-pot sizing ideal:

PokerStars – $300+$20|50/100 Ante 10 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 57.62 BB (VPIP: 39.64, PFR: 19.82, 3Bet Preflop: 6.12, Hands: 112)
BTN: 189.12 BB (VPIP: 44.03, PFR: 35.07, 3Bet Preflop: 16.98, Hands: 138)
Hero (SB): 53.26 BB

3 players post ante of 0.1 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.8 BB) Hero has Ac Jh
BTN raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 6 BB, fold, BTN calls 4 BB

Flop : (13.3 BB, 2 players) 3c 7c Jc
Hero bets 6.65 BB, BTN calls 6.65 BB

Turn : (26.6 BB, 2 players) 6c
Hero bets 13.62 BB, BTN calls 13.62 BB

River : (53.84 BB, 2 players) 9d
Hero bets 26.89 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 26.89 BB

Hero shows Ac Jh (Flush, Ace High) (Pre 63%, Flop 87%, Turn 98%)
BTN shows 4c 5h (Flush, Jack High) (Pre 37%, Flop 13%, Turn 2%)
Hero wins 107.62 BB

I went on to defeat this player heads up and win my first table, only to flame out early on the second table for a min-cash.

So far I’ve played every WCOOP event, though that streak will end when I skip the NL Draw tournament tomorrow morning. I’ve cashed three of the six events I’ve played and two of the three that I registered on time. Those are streaks I’d like to keep alive!

PokerStars – $200+$15|60/120 Ante 15 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BTN): 75.23 BB
SB: 93.64 BB
BB: 70.51 BB
UTG: 120.21 BB
UTG+1: 95.52 BB
MP: 49.17 BB
MP+1: 135.2 BB
MP+2: 110.58 BB
CO: 72.73 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has Tc 9c
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, CO calls 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, fold

Flop : (8.63 BB, 3 players) 9h Qd Td
MP+1 bets 4.5 BB, CO calls 4.5 BB, Hero calls 4.5 BB

Turn : (22.13 BB, 3 players) Th
MP+1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets 7.4 BB, MP+1 calls 7.4 BB, fold

River : (36.93 BB, 2 players) Jd
MP+1 checks, Hero bets 15.37 BB, MP+1 raises to 121.18 BB and is all-in, fold

MP+1 wins 67.66 BB

Villain covers me by a good deal, so I’m actually getting about 2:1 on a call, which makes folding a two-card full house pretty questionable. Here are the arguments for folding:

1. Although it’s a full house, it’s far from the nuts, and most if not all better hands are plausibly in Villain’s range.

2. Villain doesn’t seem bad enough to shove worse for value, except MAYBE 99, of which there is one combo.

3. It’s awfully tough for Villain to get to the river with air, so he has to be turning a pair into a bluff, presumably with the intention of folding me off of a straight or flush. Not a lot of randoms in the Sunday Million are capable of that.

4. It’s early in a huge WCOOP tournament, and this is for all of my chips. Folding a small edge is correct here.

Arguments for calling:

1. This is damn close to the top of my range. Not raising pre-flop or on the flop takes a lot of full houses out of my range. My hand probably looks more like a straight or flush that got there than it does a full house.

2. The T in my hand blocks a lot of the hands I’m worried about. This is a much easier fold with 99.

3. Villain probably bets better hands on the turn at least sometimes.

I’m curious to hear your thoughts.

1.

Sowing these seeds of doubt and conveying the impression that you could have anything is an important part of making your opponents uncomfortable, and it’s most important vis-à-vis the player on your right. You don’t have to be combative, but resist the temptation to do the nice thing and tell them what you had. Even lying is less helpful for this purpose than saying nothing at all. Let the doubt eat away at them.

Folding Kings for 200 BBs

The first was in a $10/$25 game at the Rio. We were 9-handed, and I opened to $75 UTG1. A seemingly good player in MP 3-bet to $225, and then the CO, a good Maryland Live regular with whom I’d played before, made it $400. With some players, such a small raise could be a sizing tell that they don’t have AA, but in his case I didn’t think such an exploitive read would be appropriate.

It folded back to me, and I raised to $1000. MP folded, and the CO quickly shoved for about $5000 effective. At the time he seemed very confident and I folded without too much fuss, but of course I questioned my play for a while afterwards and eventually crunched some numbers. My conclusion is that if he always shoves AK then folding is a mistake, but if he shoves {KK+,AKs} then folding is correct. (As an aside, if I’m folding KK, then AQs is actually a better shove than AKs for him because it blocks fewer of my 5-bet-fold combos).

As for whether he should 6-bet shove AKo, that comes down to whether I’m 5-bet-folding AKo. If my 5-bet range is just {KK+,AKs}, then it’s best for me to stack off only with AA. If I’m going to throw in 12 more combos of 5-bet-folds, then I need to call with KK as well. Honestly I think I would 5-bet AKo here, for better or for worse, which means that folding this is at least exploitable, if not a mistake in this case. Also I should probably use slightly smaller sizing on the 3-bet. Realistically, even if I make it $925 he probably isn’t calling. I just need to find the smallest size that will induce a shove/fold response.

The biggest factor that makes me even consider folding KK here is that there are three players in this pot, two of whom are in relatively early position. This really constrains everyone’s ranges. After all, when I 5-bet, I have to worry not just about the 4-better but also the guy who 3-bet in MP. Likewise the 4-better has to worry about an UTG1 raiser who will wake up with AA an appreciable amount of the time, etc.

Stacking Off with KK for 275 BBs

In this second hand, the 5-better was the 3-better, which means that he had only one live player behind him when he made the 5th bet.

It was a $5/$10 game at the Venetian, and the player in the HJ had just joined the game and posted a BB in order to get dealt a hand. He was in his mid-20s, looked very comfortable at a poker table, and bought in for $4000.

UTG, an aggressive young European who had recently busted out of the VDS Main Event, opened to $40 and got two calls from players who looked like the sorts of players to call with weak hands. The HJ popped it to $220 in what is generically a pretty good squeeze spot, especially considering he already has $10 invested, although the size is suspiciously large.

I was in the SB with KK and about $2750. I raised to $580, which I think even that is a little large. A raise to $550 or even $520 would enable me to have a slightly wider range here and thus look a bit less strong (though it’s hard not to look strong when cold 4-betting with five players holding live hands behind you).

The action folded back to SB, who agonized a bit and then shoved. Of course I’d decided I was going to call before I 4-bet, but one factor in that decision was that because it was his first hand at the table, HJ might expect to get slightly less credit on his raise and thus be willing to stick it in a bit lighter.

I ended up winning a big pot against QQ, which was a nice capstone to my Las Vegas trip.

Nate and Andrew also discuss a hand they played against one another at Red Rock after they both busted the World Series of Poker Main Event.

One of the first hands I saw when I sat down at the 5/10 game was this guy (“Villain”, hereafter) 4-bet-jamming 54 (no draw) on a 9h 7h 4s flop. He actually won a “flip” against 8h 5h, and his opponent was pissed. Other than that he was active pre-flop but wasn’t swinging his stack wildly post-flop, so there was probably something specific to the other player in that hand that led to that action.

Anyway, about two hours later I was dealt AA in a straddled pot. Villain opened for $75 in early position, I re-raised to $275 from the big blind, and he made it $675 with about $2500 behind. As I said, other than that 54 hand, he hadn’t done anything too wild, so if I were to shove here it would probably be only with AA and AKs. I decided to flat instead, as most of the value I potentially miss is from hands that will stack off on a lot of flops anyway given the low SPR.

The flop came Jd 9c 4d. I checked, and Villain tanked for a long time, fiddling with his chips and seemingly like he had a real decision. This was surprising to me because I thought with KK or QQ he’d be pretty eager just to bet big. Not that I was going to fold, but I started to worry that I might be up against JJ. Finally he just shoved for 2x pot, which put me more at ease. I called and rolled my hand immediately.  The turn and river came out 2h 9h, and my opponent looked for a minute, then perked up and declared “Straight!” turning over Qd 8d. I double-checked the board, and he shook his head. “Never mind, I thought that was a T on the river. I figured you must have had KK or AA. I was going to just give up, but then I flopped so well….”

Act Two: The Chase

Our next confrontation came after we’d both made it to the main game. I opened to $30 with AA in late position, he raised to $130 from the SB, I made it $330, and he called. The flop came Q22r, and he checked and called $400. We both checked a 9 river, because at that point I was mostly looking to get value from TT or JJ and even if he had AQ or KK I wasn’t at all sure that he would call three streets with it. Also with only about $1900 in the effective stacks I could just shove a lot of rivers to go for max value anyway.

A J was not my ideal river. He checked, and I was tempted to check behind, but then I remembered the Q8s hand and figured he could have enough random Qx to make up for the times that he was trying to check-raise a boat. I didn’t want to shove now that the board was scarier for my target hands, so I bet $900. He quickly shoved for another $1000, and I folded just as quickly.

Act Three: The Worst Feeling in Poker

(I just couldn’t find a way to stretch this to make “Junior” a relevant subtitle)

Our final confrontation was the most interesting. The under-the-gun player opened to $35, got called, this Villain raised to $75, someone else called, and I started thinking this would be a pretty good spot for a light 4-bet. Only the original raiser was of much concern to me, as no one else’s play was really consistent with a monster. I looked down at As 3s, which is a pretty damn good hand for making this play, and popped it to $375.

Only the Villain called, so with about $900 in the pot, we saw a Kd Kh Qc flop. With only about $1000 remaining in Villain’s stack, this was a very awkward spot for me. I wouldn’t really bet any hands for value in this spot, so I was reluctant to bluff, but checking might open the door for him to bluff me with a hand that would have folded to a bet. But what could he fold, really? And if I am checking all of my strongest hands, then it shouldn’t be that easy for him to just randomly fire with 98s or something. I checked, and he checked behind.

The turn was the 2d. I bet $375, mostly just trying to get Villain off of his air and keep nutted hands in my range. The leverage effect should make it tough for him to call even with a pocket pair, but I was resigned to not getting him off of those. He called.

The river was the very interesting Qs, making the final board Kd Kh Qc 2d Qs. The only thing betting could accomplish was getting him off of a chop, and I didn’t think there was much Ax in his range anyway, so I checked. He quickly shoved for $675 into a pot of $1650, representing a full house and offering me some pretty enticing odds.

A Q is a reasonable value shove, but would he do it so quickly? Wouldn’t he at least consider whether I’d check a K and what I’d call with?

A K would be a reasonable slowplay even on the turn, but many people get rightfully concerned about draws when the pot is already very large. Of course KQ or quads were hands that made a lot of sense, but there were only 6 combos of those. He didn’t look too comfortable while I was tanking. After a lot of agonizing, I called him. He sheepishly turned over Ad Td. “Ugh, are you serious?” I groaned, exposing my own Ace.

He shook his head. “Boy, you’ve really got my number.”

“Not really. I wasn’t expecting to chop it.” Frankly, I think shoving an A there is a pretty bad idea. It was some showdown value, though not a lot as I’d probably shove a lot of my air on the river. But he’ll also have a lot of air to shove on the river, and the best he can hope for is getting me off of a chop. I would definitely check a Q on the river, so it’s not like he’s freerolling on the shove.

Man, hero calling in a big pot, being right, and then getting half the pot is one of the worst feelings in poker.

The fact that Hero has a lot of air in his range for getting to the river because of all of the missed draws is not an argument for never bluffing. It may be an argument for bluffing rarely with small sizing and extremely weak hands, such as this one, simply to deny a showdown to the weakest hands in Villain’s range. It may also be an argument for betting really big, such that it’s hard for Villain to call even if he knows that Hero has a lot of bluff candidates.

I think there are three options to consider given Villain’s likely range:

1. Bet small, anywhere from $50 – $250, targeting missed draws that have not paired the board.

2. Bet a medium amount, $200 – $500, targeting two-pair hands like A9s, 98s, TT, and JJ.

3. Overbet the pot, $500 – $2000, targeting trips.

Exploitively, I like mwalsh’s process for thinking through these options: “we proceed bluffing a higher and higher amount until we reach a category of hand where we do not believe attempting to bluff that category of hands adds marginal value”. If, for instance, we think that Villain will fold to a shove 100% of the time, then we can exploit that by shoving, and even if a small bet is +EV it will not be as +EV as shoving our entire range. Note that in such an extreme case shoving even a Q with a bad kicker could be correct.

Betting Small

This is a case where size matters, because Villain has missed draws that could consider calling a river bet getting a very good price. Many hands in this category will contain an Ace or a King, and I think that betting $50 will not be enough to shake them.

It’s worth thinking about what you’re representing when you make this bet. Hero would presumably raise TT and JJ pre-flop. This leaves the bottom of Hero’s value betting range at 9x (ambitious, but not out of the question considering how much air is in Hero’s range) and Qx (note that Hero’s kicker can’t be too strong here as AQ and probably KQ are raising preflop). The only 9x combos in Hero’s range would also be flush draws, so there aren’t too many of those. Thus, the value hand to balance around for this bet size is really trips with a kicker that can’t expect to be ahead of Villain’s Qx range. More on this in a moment.

Betting Medium

Brian correctly points out that “77-JJ are all pretty heavily discounted from his flop overcall if this is truly a nit”. The other plausible two-pair candidate with be 9x of diamonds, of which Villain can’t have more than a few candidates in his UTG limping range. If you’re going to target just one hand type, it probably isn’t best to pick the one that represents the smallest part of Villain’s range. I’d also wonder, for exploitive reasons, whether Villain is going to fold these hands to any “normal” bet size on one of the best river cards in the deck after coming this far with them.

It’s interesting to note that there’s some overlap between the bet sizes I suggested for the small vs medium bluffs, and that’s because AxTd is not so different from Td9d. There may, then, be a case for trying to find a bet size that targets both of these regions, which would probably be in the $200 – $250 range. This is consistent with how I’d play a Q, and I think it gets enough folds from unpaired hands to show a profit. If Villain chooses to fold any pairs, that’s icing on the cake.

Betting Big

Many commenters seemed not even to consider the possibility of Villain folding trips. With about 4x the pot left in the effective stacks, that’s a mistake. Calling a shove or even a 2xpot bet with AQ is not a trivial decision. As Brian puts it, “Threatening $1000 of his hard, nut peddled dollars should get him thinking pretty quickly.” I suspect that many of you who don’t want to try to bluff him off of trips wouldn’t actually shove $2000 here with sixes full, and you should ask yourself why not.

One of the few cases in no-limit hold ’em that is completely solvable by game theory is when you hold a polarized range in position on the river against a range that consists purely of bluff catchers. The correct play is to shove all of your nuts hands and enough bluffs to make your opponent indifferent to calling.

Say that the pot is $500, Villain has exactly $2000 behind, and we know for a fact that he has KQ. Facing a 4xpot shove, Villain would have to win 44.4% of the time to break even on his calls. Thus, Hero should be bluffing 44.4% of the time that he shoves. If Hero’s value range consists only of flopped sets, that’s six combos, so we need 4.76 bluffs to balance that.

Let’s compare the EV of this strategy to that of a more common strategy, which is to bet a “safe” amount – say $400 – that we’re sure he’ll call with all of our full houses and never bluff. If he really does pay this bet off every single time, then you make $900 with your 6 value hands and lose every time with your 4.76 bluff candidates, so your overall EV with these 10.76 hands is $2400 $5400/10.76 = $501.86.

If we were to shove 4xpot with those same 10.76 combos, then we are indifferent to whether Villain calls always, sometimes, or never. Thus, by assuming that he always folds, we can see that the EV of this strategy is $500, the size of the pot. There is nothing Villain can do to prevent us from stealing the pot with those 4.76 bluff combos, because he’s going to run into our full houses just often enough when he calls.

Although the EV of these strategies is practically identical, the significant thing about the shove is that it’s not at all sensitive to our assumptions about Villain’s play. If it turns out that we’re wrong and Villain does occasionally fold KQ to the $400 bet, then we would have done better by shoving a balanced range.

Of course my example is a little contrived. If you believe you can reliably get a bigger bet than $400 paid off, then the exploitive strategy of only betting big for value will perform better than the GTO shove. I didn’t have that confidence in-game, and I suspect that anyone putting so much confidence in inferences drawn from a paragraph or two explaining some broad dynamics is making a mistake.

The whole thing gets a lot more complicated if we put slowplayed boats into Villain’s range, because at that point we’re no longer shoving into a range of pure bluff-catchers. I do, however, think there’s sufficient reason to rule those out more or less completely. Sets and two-pair are extremely unlikely to overcall on a draw-heavy flop, we’ve seen this Villain fast-play in a questionable spot before, and he probably isn’t limping the Qx combos that would make Queens full anyway.

You can find more discussion of this and more complex situations in The Mathematics of Poker.

Two Bet Sizes

Because an optimal river shove employs only 4.76 bluff combos, Hero probably has enough bluff candidates to balance an additional, smaller bet size. Thus, it may be feasible both to shove the river with full houses and 4.76 bluffs and also to bet something in the $200 – $500 range with the rest of our bluff candidates plus our Qx (to find a GTO size, we’d have to look at the ratio of value to bluff candidates in our range).

The question, then, would be whether 7h 5h belongs in the medium bet or the big bet range. It’s unique among Hero’s bluff candidates not so much because it has about as little showdown value as possible but because it doesn’t contain any diamonds, which are actually pretty significant blockers to his folding range when we make a medium-sized bet. For this reason, I think that this exact hand is better used to balance the medium-sized value bet, and the 4.76 bluffs that get shoved should be chosen from among Hero’s busted diamond draws.

Results

I bet $800, and Villain quickly folded. As argued above, I don’t think there’s a lot of reason for this intermediate bet size. I think in game I was allowing for the possibility that I might occasionally run into a slowplayed full house, but looking at the hand now I really don’t think that’s going to happen. In any event, I think that 7h 5h ought not to be one of the candidates for bluff shoving, so $200 would have been better.

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Prior to this hand, I’d really been hammering on the player in the CO. Mostly it was out of the BB, where I basically never folded to his button min-raises, sometimes 3-betting, sometimes calling and getting stubborn post-flop, but definitely not making it easy for him just to raise and take pots from late position.

It’s not that I think the BB’s cold 4-bet is weak exactly, just that there’s a little more room for it to be light than you might otherwise expect. My pre-flop and flop calls seem pretty unambiguous to me.

The turn is where it gets interesting. On the one hand, it’s a dicey spot for him to barrel. On the other hand, I’m getting 4:1, and he’s repping a really narrow range. I don’t see him betting AA here, with or without a heart. Even against that narrow range, I’m drawing pretty live. So basically on the turn I’m worried but don’t think I can fold.

In retrospect, I think that’s a reason to fold the river. Of course he’s still repping a really narrow range, and my hand is a decent bluff-catcher in that I block a couple things like AhQh, QhJh, and KQ that could play this way. However, I probably have enough trips, flushes, and boats in my range that I don’t really need to call with pure bluff-catchers like this.

My thinking is that even though my turn call is actually pretty strong Villain may just desperation shove the river with all his air once he gets that far. Probably that would be more plausible in a random $100 rebuy or something, but not so much in a $2K SCOOP event. Not to mention that I didn’t really think he had that much air in his turn range, though admittedly that was a weak read.

PokerStars – $2000+$100|250/500 Ante 60 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 67.91 BB
BTN: 59.46 BB
Hero (SB): 113.82 BB
BB: 91.59 BB
UTG: 24.84 BB
MP: 14.75 BB

6 players post ante of 0.12 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.22 BB) Hero has Qc Qh
fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 6 BB, BB raises to 14.4 BB, fold, Hero calls 8.4 BB

Flop : (31.52 BB, 2 players) Kc 4h 8h
Hero checks, BB bets 11.11 BB, Hero calls 11.11 BB

Turn : (53.74 BB, 2 players) Kh
Hero checks, BB bets 17.78 BB, Hero calls 17.78 BB

River : (89.29 BB, 2 players) 5d
Hero checks, BB bets 48.19 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 48.19 BB

BB shows Ac Ks (Three of a Kind, Kings) (Pre 43%, Flop 87%, Turn 77%)
Hero shows Qc Qh (Two Pair, Kings and Queens) (Pre 57%, Flop 13%, Turn 23%)
BB wins 185.67 BB

Important Points About Multiway Pots

I want to start by making two observations about multi-way pots:

1. It is not necessarily exploitable to fold a large portion of your range in a multiway pot. This is because the “burden” of making the bettor indifferent to bluffing does not lie solely with you. In this example, between the two of you, BB and you would need to continue to this bet approximately 66% of the time to make UTG indifferent to betting a pure bluff. Here, because Hero’s range is much stronger than BB’s, more of the burden lies with Hero, and I don’t mean to say that this is an easy fold. However, the analysis isn’t as simple as “Hero is near the top of his range, so folding would be exploitable.”

2. Other players, even reasonably good ones, tend to be more straightforward in multi-way pots. Judging from the comments, I may have made the Villains seem like better players than they probably were. They weren’t superstarts, they just weren’t obviously bad. I suppose that saying now that I think UTG will be more honest than he should be is in fact in direct conflict with my description of “no obviously exploitable tendencies”, but I do think you see a lot of people who play pretty well in heads up pots who will still make mistakes in multiway pots.

Is the BB Strong?

A big complication is that most players, again including seemingly good ones, will have an overly weak range in BB’s seat. Raphael explains why:

at each opportunity to show strength (squeezing preflop or raising flop), BB has chosen the passive action in just calling. It’s important to remember that BB was closing the action both preflop and on the flop. On the flop, BB was getting almost 3.4:1 on a call to see the next card which could potentially improve his equity. For example, on this particular board, BB can have a ton of Ax suited which have at least a gut shot or a pair + gut shot or some sort of back door flush draw that would in fact want to see another card.

Moreover, not all players are comfortable slowplaying in multiway pots when draws are present. So I actually took the BB to be quite weak, and if UTG reads it the same way, then my points above lose a lot of their validity. UTG can indeed bluff more than you’d think, especially if he’s counting on some perceived strength from betting into two people, and a disproportionate amount of the “defending burden” falls on me as a result.

Is UTG Semi-Bluffing?

No one seems to think that UTG is on a pure bluff here, which is good. He’s taken a number of strong actions, raising UTG and then betting into multiple players on the flop and turn. Most commenters are correctly thinking that UTG’s range for putting money into the pot on the turn will consist of some combination of made hands, which with the possible exception of TT have Hero crushed, and semi-bluffs.

The critical point that I didn’t see anyone mention is that UTG may prefer to check his semi-bluffs, looking either to check-raise shove or get a free card. Many players will be reluctant to bet draws here, especially the strongest ones, because it puts them in an awkward spot if raised. There are good reasons why you would like to be the one making the last bet when you have a big draw.

Results

The better UTG seems to be, the more inclined Hero should be to continue here, probably by min-raising as Nate and Mobius Dumpling argue. I may have overrepresented his skill in my original post, because I decided he was going to be strong here more than he “should” be and folded.

Had the stacks been much deeper, I would be more inclined to call because I wouldn’t expect UTG to go for a check-raise with his draws nearly so often.

BB shoved, UTG called, and the river was a heart. BB showed Ah 6h to take the pot with a rivered flush, and UTG showed QQ so that we could all feel sorry for him. The only thing I felt was proud.

UTG opens for $35. I call Js Jd in the CO, the Button and BB call.

Flop ($145 in pot) 5c 4s 2h. BB checks, UTG bets $105, I call, Button folds, BB calls.

Turn ($460 in pot) 9h. BB checks, UTG bets $275 with $670 behind. I have about $1500 behind, and BB covers.

What’s your play and why? Post your thoughts and comments here, and I’ll post results as well as my own thoughts this weekend (maybe as early as Friday, maybe not until Sunday, going to be a busy week).

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