Hero (MP) ($4429.50)
CO ($7120)
Button ($2587)
SB ($4449.30)
BB ($4169)
UTG ($712.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 4, 4
UTG calls $20, Hero bets $90, 1 fold, Button calls $90, 2 folds, UTG calls $70

Flop: ($300) 3, 4, 6 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $187, Button calls $187, 1 fold

Turn: ($674) J (2 players)
Hero bets $444, Button calls $444

River: ($1562) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1225, Hero calls $1225

Total pot: $4012 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 6, 7 (one pair, sixes).
Hero had 4, 4 (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: Hero won $4009

This guy isn’t calling the turn with a bare draw, so I’m not too concerned about him having the flush. He could have a big draw, something like Ah5h, that he chose to “slowplay”, or maybe a flush with the Jh, but I don’t think he has a flush too often. His most likely hand is something marginal with showdown value, either a bare pair that was bluff catching or a pair plus draw.

A less sophisticated opponent is just going to check back the river very often and be happy to show down his pair. A player of this guy’s caliber, though, will realize that it may be better to turn a weak pair into a bluff. Especially when I don’t bet at a good bluff card on the river, I no longer have a lot of the bluffy part of my range that he was beating on the turn. He may get real heroic on the river, but overall I think he turns a pair into a bluff (or very occasionally value bets worse) more often than he calls with worse. Though bet-calling here might be even sexier, come to think of it….

No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) – Hold’em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($3183.65)
SB ($1679.40)
BB ($2204)
Hero (UTG) ($3188.50)
MP ($1998.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, 10
Hero bets $42.50, 2 folds, SB calls $37.50, BB calls $32.50

Flop: ($127.50) 9, Q, 4 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $99, 1 fold, BB calls $99

Turn: ($325.50) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $255, BB calls $255

River: ($835.50) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $690, 1 fold

Total pot: $835.50

Results:
Hero had K, 10 (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: Hero won $1530

Ordinarily I would say this isn’t a good board to bluff into two players, but it’s a little different against two guys calling out of the blinds. To put it simply, I just think my range is so much stronger than theirs on this board that I can expect to take it down on enough turns/rivers if not immediately on the flop. I’m not betting my full range on the flop, but an overcard and a gutshot is good enough.

When I don’t get raised on the flop, it’s that much less likely that BB has a hand worth writing home about. The turn is super-unlikely to improve him, so I fire again.

Once he calls a sizeable turn bet, I’m not expecting to see either a flush draw or trips, making the river an easy and profitable bluff.

There were two overly aggressive players at the table. One of them opened to 60 (still at 10/20 level), Mkind called, I made 280 with AK in my BB, the first guy thought a bit and 4-bet to 1100. I played with this guy a bit in the first WCOOP event I played and thought he was kinda weak and almost certainly a satellite qualifier. His big 4-bet made me discount AA/KK even though I expected him to be playing scared. I shoved with no fold equity, he called with TT and won the flip. Not that his play is awful, but I think calling with TT and our stacks (about 115 BB effective) is much better than 4-betting and committing his whole stack.