Thanks to everyone who played in yesterday’s inaugural Thinking Poker Home Game tournament. I had a lot of fun and it seems like everyone else did as well.

Spidurman was our champion, outlasting 15 other competitors, including yours truly, to win first place in the $5+.50 “6-Max and Deep Stacks” event. Bond2King was the runner-up, and Piefarmer bubbled in 3rd place. Also scoring points in the nebulous League Standings were LiPhanOK and QandA201 in 4th and 5th place, respectively. Thus, after one tournament, the current standings look like this:

Don’t ask me how those points are calculated, because I have no idea. As you can see, though, there’s not a huge difference in points between 1st and 5th place, so even if you missed or didn’t do well in yesterday’s tournament, there’s no reason you couldn’t go on to win the season and the grand prize of a Leakfinder review with yours truly.

The next tournament will take place on Sunday, March 6th at 16:30 ET on PokerStars, coinciding with the epic Sunday Five Million. It will be a $1+.10 Triple Stud tournament, meaning that we’ll alternate between 7 Card Stud, Razz, and Stud/8. I deliberately made the buy-in as small as possible so that you can come play and have fun even if you have no idea what you’re doing in those games.

There will also be a Thinking Poker cash game tomorrow night at 20:00 ET. We’ll be playing $.10/$.25 6-max with a 100-250 BB buy-in. The results won’t count towards league standings, but if yesterday’s experience is any guide, it should be a good time.

The 2+2 MTT community is mostly salivating over this, though some are a little concerned that the smaller events will actually discourage people from trying satellite into the bigger events. I don’t think they’re wrong, but I still expect the big events to be plenty soft thanks to tourney donks playing with relatively deep stacks for fairly big money.

The only issue for me is how to get enough money on Stars by April to enable me to play the ones I want without busting the bankroll. I may suck it up and make a wire transfer, which I’ve so far refused to do on principle since Stars makes the depositor pay the wire fees. It’s really preposterous- I pay enough rake in 10 minutes to cover the fees, and it’s clearly in their interest for me to have money on their site.

Anyway, the schedule:

Event 1 – 2 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – NL Hold’em with Rebuys [6-max]

Really looking forward to this one, will probably play the medium and the large.

• 01-L: $5.50 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 01-M: $55 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 01-H: $530 buy-in, $500,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 2 – 2 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – PL Omaha Hi/Lo

I like PLO8 and will probably play the medium, maybe the large depending on what the field looks like. I’d probably even be willing to play the large if I thought I was slightly -EV.

• 02-L: $11 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 02-M: $109 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 02-H: $1,050 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 3 – 3 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – PL 5-Card Draw

I might play the small or medium for fun, but definitely won’t be playing the large.

• 03-L: $11 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 03-M: $109 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 03-H: $1,050 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 4 – 3 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – NL Hold’em [2X Chance, turbo]

It’s hard to turn down the great value that all of these NLHE tourneys represent, but I really hate turbos. In these, the tourney donks might actually have the edge on me.

• 04-L: $16.50 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 04-M: $162 buy-in, $300,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 04-H: $1,575 buy-in, $1,000,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 5 – 4 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – NL Hold’em Shootout [10-max]

The large will probably be worth playing.

• 05-L: $16.50 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 05-M: $162 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 05-H: $1,575 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 6 – 4 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – PL Omaha [1R1A, 6-max]

I might play the medium, but lately I’ve no interest in PLO.

• 06-L: $22 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 06-M: $215 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 06-H: $2,100 buy-in, $400,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 7 – 5 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – H.O.R.S.E.

Recently I’ve concluded that I may not be as good at HORSE as I thought, and/or everyone else is getting better. If I play, it will probably just be the low.

• 07-L: $109 buy-in, $250,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 07-M: $1,050 buy-in, $500,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 07-H: $10,300 buy-in, $750,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 8 – 5 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – NL Hold’em [2-day]

Juicy! The medium will be fine, but it’s probably not a good idea to burn so much time on a $300 tournament. I really want to play the large though.

• 08-L: $33 buy-in, $250,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 08-M: $320 buy-in, $1,500,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 08-H: $3,150 buy-in, $3,000,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 9 – 6 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – FL Triple Draw 2-7

If I play, it would only be the low for fun. Whenever I play this game, I always end up screwing up and getting excited about an Ace or a straight.

• 09-L: $22 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 09-M: $215 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 09-H: $2,100 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 10 – 6 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – NL Hold’em [Heads-Up Match Play]

Nice opportunity for heads up, will probably play medium and large.

• 10-L: $16.50 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 10-M: $162 buy-in, $300,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 10-H: $1,575 buy-in, $500,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 11 – 7 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – Mixed Hold’em [6-max]

Meh. I really hate and suck at FLHE. I’ll probably sit this one out.

• 11-L: $33 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 11-M: $320 buy-in, $300,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 11-H: $3,150 buy-in, $800,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 12 – 7 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – 7-Card Stud Hi/Lo

I like this game, but I’m probably not good enought for the large. I’ll likely play the medium though.

• 12-L: $22 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 12-M: $215 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 12-H: $2,100 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 13 – 8 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – FL Razz

Same as above, only Razz is more frustrating. Maybe the medium, not the large.

• 13-L: $22 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 13-M: $215 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 13-H: $2,100 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 14 – 8 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – NL Hold’em [6-max]

Tight! Medium and large are both high priorities, and I might even play the low.

• 14-L: $55 buy-in, $250,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 14-M: $530 buy-in, $500,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 14-H: $5,200 buy-in, $1,250,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 15 – 9 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – 8-Game

I’m probably too bad at too many of these games to warrant playing even the medium.

• 15-L: $44 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 15-M: $425 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 15-H: $4,175 buy-in, $250,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 16 – 9 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – 7-Card Stud

I don’t really like and suck at 7-stud, so I won’t be playing these.

• 16-L: $33 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 16-M: $320 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 16-H: $3,150 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 17 – 10 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – NL Hold’em [1R1A]

I’ll play the medium, and I’d like to play the high, but it’ll stretch the bankroll. We’ll see.

Event 18 – 10 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – PL Omaha

Meh, probably skip all of these.

• 18-L: $55 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 18-M: $530 buy-in, $300,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 18-H: $5,200 buy-in, $1,000,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 19 – 11 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – FL Omaha Hi/Lo

I’m not much on this game, will probably skip it.

• 19-L: $55 buy-in, $50,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 19-M: $530 buy-in, $150,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 19-H: $5,200 buy-in, $400,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 20 – 11 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – FL Hold’em [6-max]

Definitely not playing these.

• 20-L: $55 buy-in, $25,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 20-M: $530 buy-in, $200,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 20-H: $5,200 buy-in, $400,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 21 – 12 April 2009 @ 14:30 ET – NL Hold’em [Heads-Up Match Play]

I’ll play the medium and maybe the low but definitely not the high.

• 21-L: $270 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 21-M: $2,600 buy-in, $300,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 21-H: $25,500 buy-in, $800,000 guaranteed prize pool

Event 22 – 12 April 2009 @ 16:30 ET – NL Hold’em Main Event [2-day]

I’ll play the medium for sure. I’d really like to play the high, but I don’t know if it’s going to be practical.

• 22-L: $109 buy-in, $1,000,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 22-M: $1,050 buy-in, $3,000,000 guaranteed prize pool
• 22-H: $10,300 buy-in, $5,000,000 guaranteed prize pool

But I also made a pretty big error in a Stud/8 game, so I guess I’ll be talking about how I suck at Stud/8 (though this is really just a Stud high error). On the river, my opponent was showing 6655, and I had Aces up with both Aces and two high cards showing. My opponent bet, and I raised for value. Like I was saying, no matter how clear I make it that I have Aces up, people will call down with any two pair.

I forgot, however, to think about what my opponent would be value betting. Since his two pair was open, there was no way he could be betting on the strength of that alone. He had to have either a boat or a low, and in either case there was no value in a raise. Sure enough, he had 6′s full.

Despite playing for four and a half hours, I only made it to the top 25% of the field. The hand that really hurt me came in LHE. A guy in MP raised, and I 3-bet with AKo. He called. The flop came Ad 5c 3c. He checked, I bet, he check-raised, and I called. the turn was an off-suit 8, he bet, and I raised. The river was a T, and he check-called with Ac Tc. Unlucky river for me, but there were quite a few of those that could have come.

FullTiltPoker Game #5166723748: FTOPS Event #3 (35825861), Table 26 – 500/1000 Ante 100 – Limit Stud Hi – 0:35:56 ET – 2008/02/08
Seat 1: zartarious (10,468)
Seat 2: WCJOKER (16,873)
Seat 3: Rambo no5 (2,006)
Seat 4: jesseja777 (17,150)
Seat 5: joshuah333 (9,909)
Seat 6: Sira21 (6,110)
Seat 7: urbandb888 (3,792)
Seat 8: hattrick8810 (5,714)

*** 3RD STREET ***
Dealt to zartarious [Ad]
Dealt to WCJOKER [7c]
Dealt to Rambo no5 [6s]
Dealt to jesseja777 [4s]
Dealt to joshuah333 [5h]
Dealt to Sira21 [4d]
Dealt to urbandb888 [4c 5c] [Jc]
Dealt to hattrick8810 [Ks]
Sira21 is low with [4d]
Sira21 brings in for 150
urbandb888 completes it to 500
hattrick8810 folds
zartarious raises to 1,000
WCJOKER folds
Rambo no5 folds
jesseja777 folds
joshuah333 folds
Sira21 folds
urbandb888 calls 500

*** 4TH STREET ***
Dealt to zartarious [Ad] [8c]
Dealt to urbandb888 [4c 5c Jc] [Tc]
zartarious bets 500
urbandb888 calls 500

*** 5TH STREET ***
Dealt to zartarious [Ad 8c] [Ac]
Dealt to urbandb888 [4c 5c Jc Tc] [Jh]
zartarious bets 1,000
urbandb888 calls 1,000

*** 6TH STREET ***
Dealt to zartarious [Ad 8c Ac] [9c]
Dealt to urbandb888 [4c 5c Jc Tc Jh] [Qs]
zartarious bets 1,000
urbandb888 calls 1,000

*** 7TH STREET ***
Dealt to urbandb888 [4c 5c Jc Tc Jh Qs] [7s]
zartarious bets 1,000
urbandb888 folds
Uncalled bet of 1,000 returned to zartarious
zartarious shows [Ah 7h Ad 8c Ac 9c 6h] three of a kind, Aces
zartarious wins the pot (7,950)

There are a couple of things wrong with my play on 3rd street here. I’d been playing very tight, partially because that’s just the right strategy in fixed limit tournaments and partially because of some lackluster cards, and so I thought my raise would get some credit. It was a semi-bluff, hoping to represent a pair of Jacks but actually holding a three flush.

However, my hole cards are small, making them less valuable, and worse, they are dead. That is, a 5 and two 4′s are showing, making it more likely that I will brick future streets. Stud is a game about constant improvement. Generally your hand needs to keep getting better, either by pairing or improving draws, for you to continue with it on each street. And those dead cards make it harder me to improve my hand.

Raising into two bigger cards behind me is also problematic. No matter how tight my image, no one is folding a pair of K’s or A’s when a J raises.

Three flushes are also generally less playable in tournament Stud, especially when stacks are shallow. This is because pots are more likely to be contested heads up and you will often commit a lot of chips chasing only to fold the river, as I did here, and leave yourself crippled.

It’s always true in tournament poker that your last chips are worth more than the others, but it’s especially true in fixed limit games. In NLHE, a short stack is worth more than half a stack of twice its size because of the value of survival, but it also has its disadvantages. With a short stack, you lose the ability to make certain plays, such as to re-raise with fold equity pre-flop or to make a continuation bet on the flop. In a game where the bet sizes are fixed, a guy with enough chips to bet every street to the river is almost exactly as threatening as a guy with ten times his chips. There is very little the bigger stack can do that the shorter cannot. Thus, it is especially important not to put your last chips in jeopardy in a marginal spot. Like I did.

In the early rounds of a stud tournament, where stacks are deep relative to the stakes, Gray advises nothing more than a “good, normal, solid strategy” akin to what would be appropriate in a cash game. I appreciate that he doesn’t elaborate overly much on what exactly that is, since there are other, presumably better resources for learning the game of Seven Card Stud.

As its name implies, this compact chapter sets its sights on tournament stud, his approach to which Gray sums up as follows: “After the first few levels, you can’t afford to lose a full pot in a tournament and still have relative chip strength. You are definitely looking to play a top hand and move on people you think have nothing.” His point is that you can’t afford to play from behind. Even when getting the right pot odds, the price is too high to chase a likely big pair with a flush draw or an underpair and an overcard or two, since you end up crippled all too frequently.

But doesn’t one also lose money by folding when the odds are good? Gray does his best to mitigate this effect by advising extreme selectiveness on third street (you can’t make a four-flush if you fold your three-flush) and again on fifth street, when the bets double and calling is likely to price yourself in until seventh.

Intuitively, this cautiousness makes sense, and I’m inclined to say that it’s good advice. What concerns me is Gray’s occasional resort to weak-tight tournament platitudes such as, “a tournament… is about losing the least, especially because losing hurts you more than winning helps–when you’re out, you’re out.” I’ve just heard this from too many old nits at live tournaments to accept it as gospel in a stud tournament with no further analysis. I’d like to know that Gray is aware of this principle’s flawed application in NLHE tournaments and nonetheless believes it relevant in a stud setting.

It is also hard to say when exactly one ought to switch from cash game to tournament strategy. Gray advises that, “Until you are very close to the money, you should play your normal strategy.” However, his warrants for especially cautious play relate more to stack depth than to the divergence between chip equity and cash equity.

Presumably it is acceptable and maybe necessary to take some gambles when your stack gets small relative to the stakes. As he cautions, “If you play too tight, you can become so low on chips that even winning with your last chips doesn’t improve your position.” But in lieu of advice about how to navigate between these extremes, the reader gets only an acknowledgment of the challenge: “Weighing proper strategy… against your survival is difficult, and though I recommend you place a very high value on your survival, you sometimes have to risk going broke.”

This tight strategy works, Gray believes, because other players tend to be overly loose and because stud poker is not a game of implied odds. It is difficult to make a killing with a concealed monster the way one can in NLHE by flopping a set or an unlikely two pair. Thus, his goal is to stay out of trouble, play mostly big pairs and rolled up trips, and take advantage of others’ loose play. As Gray puts it, “I don’t ever want to enter a pot where I don’t think I’m a favorite.”

Gray addresses some other unique elements of tournament poker, such as the fact that the ratio of ante:big bet will change from level to level, necessitating an adaptation in hand selection that few players recognize. He also considers short and big stack play, arguing that the former need to pick a hand and stick to it, whereas the latter ought to splash around a bit more but get out of the way quickly when a shorter stack shows interest, since that player can probably not be bluffed out.

David Gray’s tournament stud strategy seems like a useful one, particularly for those new to the game, ie the majority of his readers. It is designed to keep you alive, keep you out of trouble, and put you in position to win some money. With a good table draw and a bit of luck, it might even win you a tournament or two.