Posts Tagged ‘super/system’

Mailbag: Set Mining

Thinking Poker MailbagQ: My question is about calling UTG open raise (say 3.5X) on the button with small pairs (say 22 – 55). Unless UTG will stack off with one pair it doesn’t seem profitable to set mine. Say UTG has AA but will only lose 40 in a single raised pot, but will obviously get it in with a set of AA. I can’t call and then pot control when I hit a set. With set mining I see three cards, with AA UTG gets to see 5 cards, so my 12% for a set is reduced by 2%. So I have 10% chance of winning 40 and 2% chance of losing 100 so my EV is just 2 and I have paid 3.5 pre flop, so even if I was in big blind I can’t set mine. So what hands can I call in position with? Do good players either 3-bet or fold? Presumable when a good player calls it is with the idea of floating or bluff raising a c-bet.

Share

EPT Madrid River Bluff-Call

There’s a full trip report in the works, but for now, here’s my favorite hand that I played in the EPT Madrid main event:

Blinds are 150/300/25. The UTG is a very aggressive young Scandinavian with a huge stack. He opens to 750, and I call in the CO with 66 and 45K in my stack. Action folds to the BB, who calls. This is no surprise, as his VP$IP is about 50%.

The flop comes 732r. UTG bets about half the pot, I call, and the BB overcalls. Fish though he is, I don’t think he has many 2′s or 3′s in his range. I did once see him peel the flop with AQ unimproved, so he could just have overs, but I thought there was a good chance he had a 7.

The turn was a 9, and my opponents checked to me. There was nothing for me to do but check behind. The BB wasn’t the sort of guy you try to bluff off of a decent pair, so I had pretty much given up after his flop call. As this hand will demonstrate, though, you should always be paying attention and considering your options, even when you think the result is a foregone conclusion.

Share